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Simulated mean monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound, 1993–2022

Elevated nitrogen loads are pervasive in the Long Island Sound, an estuary that receives freshwater and nutrients from both surface-water and groundwater discharge. Surface-water nitrogen loads to the Long Island Sound are relatively well characterized, but less is known about groundwater-transported nitrogen loads. Prior work on the northern shore of Long Island Sound (Connecticut and areas of New York and Rhode Island) suggested that groundwater travel times are relatively short (median less than 2 years) and that decade-long nutrient legacies are not widespread. Because the travel times are short, groundwater flow and nutrient loads likely vary substantially between months. In the current study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study and the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, developed a set of models to better characterize spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater-transported nitrogen loading from atmospheric deposition, septic systems, and fertilizers within the study area. The models provide an estimate, with uncertainty, of groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in the study area, filling a key gap in the nitrogen budget for Long Island Sound. The models also highlight the spatial and temporal variation in nitrogen loading throughout the study area. The modeling workflow involved four models. (1) A soil-water-balance model was developed by using the Soil-Water-Balance software to simulate groundwater recharge across the study area for water years 2005 through 2022. The simulated mean monthly recharge from the soil-water-balance model was used as input into a groundwater-flow model. (2) The groundwater-flow model was developed by using the MODFLOW 6 software and data for water years 1993 through 2022 and simulates average monthly hydrologic conditions. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated by using the Iterative Ensemble Smoother method within the PEST++ software. The Iterative Ensemble Smoother method generates an ensemble of sets of parameter values, with each set producing reasonable simulated hydrologic parameter values. (3) An ensemble of MODPATH particle-tracking simulations were run to generate particle flow paths and travel times, with each simulation using a different set of the flow model parameters. (4) A nitrogen load model uses the MODPATH simulation outputs to track nitrogen from the land surface through multiple attenuation zones until it discharges into fresh or saline surface water. As with the groundwater-flow model, the nitrogen model simulated average monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads for water years 1993 through 2022. One novel aspect of the nitrogen load model is that the nitrogen attenuation parameters were calibrated to observed nitrogen loads. Across the ensemble of simulated nitrogen loads, the median study-area-wide monthly simulated nitrogen loads from the aquifer to Long Island Sound throughout the year ranged from 900 to 18,600 kilograms of nitrogen per day, with a median load of 5,100 kilograms of nitrogen per day. The simulated loads were based on average monthly conditions for water years 1993 through 2022. Loads were highest during the winter and early spring and lowest during the late summer. However, simulated travel times for groundwater and nitrogen loads discharged to Long Island Sound during summer were longer than travel times for groundwater and loads discharged during the winter, indicating that, on average, groundwater discharged during summer traveled along different, and longer, flow paths, than groundwater discharged during winter. This indicates that summer loads would respond more slowly to changes in nitrogen inputs at the water table than winter loads. Over the entire study area, approximately 15 percent of the simulated load is from atmospheric deposition sources, 30 to 40 percent is from fertilizer, and 50 to 60 percent is from septic systems. The final analysis of the study involved simulating the change in groundwater-transported nitrogen load in response to upgrading septic systems or reducing fertilizing inputs to areas of turf grass. Both management interventions reduced the groundwater-transported nitrogen load, and reductions were greater in areas with greater loads from septic systems or turf-grass fertilizers. The delay between management actions and substantial reductions in groundwater-transported nitrogen loads varied seasonally; loads during the late summer months remained elevated longer than the winter loads.

Connecticut, Rhode Island↗

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2023

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004, and the 2023 survey consisted of 20 transects [450 km total (336 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 12 to 248 m and 29 midwater trawl tows above bottom depths ranging 16 to 246 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. A spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across 3 of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 18 to 164 m. The goal of the spring BT is to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, most notably Alewife. Additionally, we conducted acoustic sampling while bottom trawling to evaluate the vertical distribution of fish relative to the height of the trawl. The abbreviated spring BT survey results indicated that Alewives were primarily offshore with peak biomass density at the 91 m bottom depth. There was no evidence of higher acoustic density above the trawl at depths of 18, 73, 128, and 146 m. At 91 and 164 m, acoustic density above the trawl was >2x that in the trawl path, but sample size at these two depths was low. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 14.8 kg/ha, 223% higher than the longterm average (2004-2022) of 4.6 kg/ha and 8.8 kg/ha higher than the 2022 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 3.6 kg/ha, about 50% lower than the average value from 2004-2022 (6.9 kg/ha). The 2023 fall BT biomass was an order of magnitude lower than the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2022; 33.7 kg/ha). Bloater was the dominant species (by biomass) among prey fishes in the fall BT, while the AC survey reported dominance of Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 10.3 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.7 kg/ha in the fall BT. Since 2014, catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT has been substantially lower than the AC survey. While limited in scope, the results of the 2023 spring BT do not suggest that catchability is substantially higher in the spring than the fall, which aligns with the 2022 survey results. Comparing the AC estimate to previous years, YAO Alewife biomass was 359% higher than the average from 2004-2022. Numeric density of age-0 Alewife from the AC survey was 1,205 fish/ha in 2023, which is the third highest in the time series and well above the long-term mean of 428 fish/ha. Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater in 2023 was 3.5 kg/ha in the AC survey and 2.1 kg/ha in the fall BT - each at least an order of magnitude lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1985 and 1997. Following a record high year in 2021 (1,034 fish/ha), the numeric density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was 142 fish/ha in the AC survey, similar to the long-term mean of 120 fish/ha. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was 2 fish/ha. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was <0.05 kg/ha in the AC and fall BT surveys, continuing the trend of low Rainbow Smelt biomass that has been observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 119 fish/ha in the AC survey and 7 fish/ha in the fall BT, indicating a weak year-class. All four prey fish species sampled only by the fall BT indicated below average biomass densities. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was estimated at 0.4 kg/ha, which makes 13 of the past 14 years when biomass was <1 kg/ha. Slimy Sculpin was estimated at 0.02 kg/ha, only 5% of the long-term average. Round Goby was estimated at 0.3 kg/ha, below the average biomass of 0.85 kg/ha since 2008 but similar to intermittent low values observed throughout the dataset. Ninespine Stickleback density was 1 fish/ha. Only 35 small (<100 mm) Yellow Perch were caught, indicating a weak Yellow Perch year-class in 2023.

Lake Michigan↗

Evaluating dewatering approaches to protect larval Pacific lamprey

Executive Summary Larval Pacific lamprey live for several years burrowed in nearshore sediments where they filter feed on detritus and organic matter. Dewatering of larval habitat can occur as a result of flow-management practices, construction projects, or seasonal closures of irrigation diversions. Effective management of dewatering events requires guidance on approaches to protect lamprey, such as dewatering rates and light conditions (day or night) that allow lamprey the best opportunity to relocate water and avoid being stranded. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments comparing five dewatering rates (1, 1.8, 4, 8, and 16 inches per hour [in/h]) and two light conditions (light and dark) to evaluate their effectiveness in protecting larval lamprey. We used a tank with a simulated shoreline at a 10-percent slope filled with river sediment and manipulated the outflow to control the rate of dewatering until water was covering only the sediment in the lowest tank section, at the bottom of the slope. Following dewatering, larvae were classified as either stranded (in or on the substrate outside the watered area) or safe (relocated to the wetted area at the lower end of the tank). All study groups experienced high rates of stranding. The lowest stranding rates were for 1 in/h, in both light (77 percent) and dark (80 percent). Faster dewatering rates generally produced higher percentages of stranded fish, and both the dark and light trials at 16 in/h stranded all larvae. At each of the five dewatering rates, trials conducted in the dark stranded the same or higher proportions of fish than the corresponding trial conducted in the light, so there was no clear advantage to dewatering during dark conditions. The largest contribution to stranding rates for all study groups was the high number of larvae (50–80 percent) that did not initiate movement in response to dewatering and remained in the uppermost tank section where they were stocked at the start of the trials. The proportion of larvae that emerged from the sediment during dewatering trials was approximately 30 percent, and fish that emerged were consistently smaller than those that remained burrowed. Combining all dewatering rates, emergence was 31.3 percent for groups under dark conditions and 30.7 percent for groups under light conditions. We recorded the timing of emergence for 58 larvae and their median time to emerge (after the surface of the sediment in the uppermost tank section was dewatered) was 0.62 hour (h) (range 0–4.5 h). We measured larval movement rates and found that large fish moved faster than small fish. Differences in larval movement rate based on light condition were significant only for large fish, which had a significantly faster rate during light conditions. Larval lamprey moved, over short distances, at rates that exceeded the fastest dewatering rate we tested. The mean movement rates for groups ranged from 19.0 to 44.4 centimeters per minute [cm/min]) and the fastest dewatering rate (16 in/h) is equivalent to less than 1 cm/min. Only the slowest movement rate measured, 6.6 cm/min for one individual lamprey, was slower than the fastest dewatering rate. We also investigated lamprey responses to a series of dewatering and rewatering events. Individual larvae were held in cylinders and exposed to four cycles of dewatering and rewatering using dewatering rates of 1 and 16 in/h and a rewatering rate of 2 in/h. Each dewatering rate was tested under both dark and light conditions. The location of fish, either on the surface of the sediment or burrowed, was recorded after each dewatering event for four rounds. The most common individual fish response for all study groups was to remain burrowed through all four rounds, and there were large differences in response between small and large larvae. Overall for small larvae, combining all groups, 14 of 28 fish emerged, and of those, 8 died and 1 was lethargic. The 1-in/h rate had 7 of the 8 mortalities, split about equally between the dark (3 fish) and light (4 fish) trials. All but one fish that died emerged from the sediment at some point during the four rounds of dewatering. Large larvae predominantly remained burrowed in all four rounds and did not experience any mortality. None of the large fish emerged for more than a single round, and emergence occurred only in the first and second rounds. Larvae emerged more quickly as the number of dewatering events increased. The mean time to emerge after the surface of the sediment in the tube was dewatered, combing all four groups, was 42 minutes (min) in round 1 (14 fish), 16 min in round 2 (5 fish), 11 min in round 3 (3 fish), and 8 minutes in round 4 (3 fish). When all groups and rounds of dewatering were combined, the overall mean time to emerge was 29 min (25 fish) and ranged from 1 min to 2 hours after the surface of the sediment was dewatered. Larvae burrowed deeper during the 1-in/h trials than the 16-in/h trials, and few fish were deeper than about 23 centimeters (cm). Large larvae burrowed deeper than small larvae. Small larvae were most concentrated from 0 to 7.6 cm (83.7 percent), and large fish were concentrated from 15.2 to 22.8 cm (43.3 percent). The second dewatering event resulted in greater mean burrowing depth than the first event, but trends after the second event were less clear. Larval size played a role in lamprey responses to dewatering, having a significant effect on emergence, movement rate, and vertical distribution. The sediment used for laboratory testing or occupied by lamprey in the field appears to affect lamprey response to dewatering and deserves greater attention in future studies. Larvae were more active in the dark, but darkness did not consistently provide better outcomes (e.g., more emergence or reduced stranding) compared to daylight. An improved understanding of the cues that prompt larvae to emerge from the sediment, combined with the ability to manage dewatering rates, would be useful to guide future dewatering events to minimize negative effects to lamprey.

Open-File Report↗

Comprehensive water-quality trend analysis for selected sites and constituents in the International Souris River Basin, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, and North Dakota, United States, 1970–2020

The Souris River Basin is an international basin in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. Sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives for total phosphorus, sodium, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total iron have been reported since the late 1990s at the two binational sites on the Souris River (Souris River near Sherwood, North Dakota [U.S. Geological Survey station 05114000] and Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. [U.S. Geological Survey station 05124000]). To understand conditions at the binational sites, it is important to understand water-quality changes on a basin-wide scale. Because streamflow is highly variable in the basin and changes in streamflow affect water-quality conditions, it is particularly important to use a trend-analysis method that accounts for changes in streamflow. Trends in water-quality concentrations can be affected by human-induced changes on the landscape or natural changes in land-runoff interactions that are driven by climate patterns and reflected by changes in streamflow (commonly referred to as “hydroclimatic variability”). In the primarily agricultural Souris River Basin, human-induced changes that are likely to affect trends are widespread changes in agricultural management such as fertilizer application, tilling practices, and crop types, as well as dam emplacement and artificial drainage. Around 1970, there was a long-term natural (hydroclimatic) change in the basin in which a significant transition from a dry climate state to a wet climate state resulted in higher streamflow in the basin. To assist the International Souris River Board in assessing current water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin and exceedances of water-quality objectives at the binational sites, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, completed a comprehensive analysis for selected ions, nutrients, and trace metals for many sites in the basin that included descriptive water-quality statistics, trend analysis using a trend method that considers interannual hydroclimatic variability, and an assessment of exceedances of the water-quality objectives for the binational sites. Water-quality and streamflow or reservoir inflow or outflow data were compiled for 34 sites (30 stream sites and four reservoir sites) and 23 constituents with established water-quality objectives from 1970 to 2020 in the Souris River Basin and were used for descriptive statistics and water-quality trend analysis. Median total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium concentrations were low in the headwaters of the Souris River and some of the highest median concentrations were measured in the upper basin. At main-stem Souris River sites, all median sodium concentrations were greater than the binational water-quality objective. Median total phosphorus concentrations in the Souris River Basin were highest in the headwaters of the Souris River and all sites had median concentrations greater than the water-quality objective. Median total iron concentrations were highly variable across the basin, and for most main-stem sites, median concentrations were greater than or equal to the water-quality objective. During the recent period (2009–19), the annual flow-averaged concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate increased for nearly all stream sites with most sites having mildly significant or significant increases. One-half of the sites had an annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration greater than the total dissolved solids water-quality objective, and four sites had sulfate increases greater than 100 milligrams per liter. Trends in annual flow-averaged concentrations of sodium and chloride generally were small and nonsignificant. Most sites had concentrations greater than the sodium water-quality objective, whereas all sites had concentrations much less than the chloride water-quality objective. Annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total phosphorus decreased for nearly all sites across the Souris River Basin, but all sites had concentrations greater than the total phosphorus water-quality objective for the entire period. Small and nonsignificant changes in annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total iron were detected at all sites but the binational site at Sherwood, N. Dak., and by 2019 all sites had concentrations greater than the total iron water-quality objective. For the reservoir sites, during 2000–15, mostly significant increases for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium were detected, whereas changes in total phosphorus and total iron were mixed. During the historical period (1976–2019), large and consistent increases in total dissolved solids and sulfate have occurred since the late 1980s, with the largest increases and the most sites with mildly significant or significant increases generally occurring during the middle period (1988–2005). Large and significant or mildly significant increases in sodium concentrations occurred at eight of 10 sites in the middle period (1988–2005), and by the late period (2005–19) changes were small and nonsignificant. Similar to other basins in the region, such as the Red River of the North and Heart River, large and overall consistent increases since the late 1980s in total dissolved solids and sulfate in the Souris River Basin suggest that long-term natural (hydroclimatic) processes are large contributors to increases in the concentration of salts in streams and reservoirs associated with the onset of wetter conditions. The concurrent increases in sulfate and sodium concentrations at all sites during the middle period (1988–2005) suggest that sodium-sulfate evaporite dissolution may be a factor contributing to increases. Total phosphorus concentrations oscillated between increasing and decreasing during the historical period, with concentrations increasing during the first trend period (1976–88) and decreasing in the fourth trend period (2009–19) to the lowest flow-averaged geometric mean concentration by 2019 for most sites. During the historical period, changes in total iron concentrations were mostly nonsignificant and generally small, and variability in total iron concentrations likely affected the ability to detect statistically significant changes in concentration. The probability of exceeding the water-quality objective for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium increased between 1976 and 2019 for the binational sites, especially for sulfate, which more than doubled for Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. and increased more than seven times for Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. Total phosphorus and total iron concentrations for the binational sites were likely to exceed the water-quality objective for most of the year, but seasonal patterns of total phosphorus and total iron concentrations were different between the sites, suggesting that different factors may affect concentrations at different times of the year. For sodium, total phosphorus, and total iron, exceedance of the water-quality objective most of the time is not unexpected given that the flow-averaged geometric mean concentration for these three constituents for most sites across the basin are greater than the water-quality objective for most of the period. If natural processes are affecting total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations, concentrations would be expected to vary with time, and as a result, extended periods of concentrations greater or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending upon climatic conditions. A better understanding of the state of water quality across the Souris River Basin is beneficial to understanding and interpreting water-quality conditions at the two Souris River binational sites. The most consistent spatial and temporal change observed for this study was large and consistent increases in sulfate and total dissolved solids among tributary and main-stem sites since the late 1980s. For sulfate and total dissolved solids, wetter climatic conditions combined with naturally occurring and abundant sources of sulfate likely contributed to sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives in recent decades, and extended periods of concentrations greater than or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending on climatic conditions. For sodium, total iron, and total phosphorus, sustained exceedances of the current water-quality objective likely will continue because most sites across the basin had flow-averaged geometric mean concentrations greater than the water-quality objective; and during the 43-year period of analysis, regardless of climatic conditions, exceedances were consistently greater than the water-quality objective. Further investigation into the factors causing increasing sulfate concentrations and a better understanding of reservoir dynamics would enhance the understanding of changes in water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin. The basin-wide approach of this report provided an improved understanding of water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin, and results can be used to inform the current water-quality objectives, inform potential changes to water management in the basin, and serve as a starting point for tracking future progress. Gaps in understanding of water-quality conditions can be closed through continued monitoring and further investigation into causes behind changes in water-quality conditions identified in this report.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2022

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004, and the 2022 survey consisted of 26 transects [570 km total (354 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 5 to 255 m and 37 midwater trawl tows above bottom depths ranging 5 to 232 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. In spring of 2022, an additional spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across six of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 9 to 236 m. The goal of the spring BT was to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, mostly notably Alewife. Total prey fish biomass density from the spring BT was 2.1 kg/ha. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 6.2 kg/ha, 37% higher than the long-term average (2004-2021) of 4.5 kg/ha and 0.43 kg/ha higher than the 2021 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 8.7 kg/ha, the highest value since 2013 and 21% higher than average value from 20042021 (6.8 kg/ha). The 2022 fall BT biomass density was still well below the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2021; 34.3 kg/ha). Over the period both surveys have been conducted (2004-2021), total biomass density has trended downward in the fall BT (despite a high 2022 estimate) and remained relatively stable in the AC survey. Bloater was the dominant species (by biomass) among prey fishes in both the spring and fall BT, while the AC survey reported co-dominance of Bloater and Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 0.38 kg/ha in the spring BT, 3.0 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.10 in the fall BT. Alewife were aggregated in deepwater habitats in the spring of 2022 (> 110 m). Since 2014, catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT has been substantially lower than the AC survey. Results of the 2022 spring BT do not suggest that catchability is substantially higher in the spring than the fall. Comparing the acoustic estimate to previous years, YAO Alewife biomass was 40% higher than the average from 2004-2021. An age-7 fish was recorded for the first time since 2009. Despite the rare catches of older fish, the Alewife age distribution still appears truncated, with age-1 fish as the most represented age class in all three surveys. Numeric density of age-0 Alewife from the AC survey was 7 fish/ha in 2022, which is the third lowest in the time series and well below the longterm mean of 452 fish/ha. Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater was 2.7 kg/ha in the AC survey and 4.4 kg/ha in the fall BT - each at least an order of magnitude lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1981 and 1998. Following a record high year in 2021 (1,037 fish/ha), the numeric density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was only 15 fish/ha in the AC survey. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was 261 fish/ha, the highest value since 1990 and likely partially reflective of a large 2021 year-class. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was 0.29 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.12 kg/ha in the fall BT survey, continuing the trend of low Rainbow Smelt biomass that has been observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 21 fish/ha in the AC survey and 2.7 fish/ha in the fall BT, indicating a weak year-class. All four prey fish species sampled only by the fall BT indicated below average biomass densities. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was estimated at 0.41 kg/ha, which makes 12 of the past 13 years when biomass was <1 kg/ha. Slimy Sculpin was estimated at 0.10 kg/ha, the highest estimate since 2016 but still only 25% of the long-term average. Round Goby was estimated at 1.3 kg/ha, above the average biomass of 0.82 kg/ha since 2008 but similar to intermittent high values observed throughout the dataset. Ninespine Stickleback density was 1.5 fish/ha. Burbot biomass remained near record low levels, and no age-0 Yellow Perch were caught, indicating a weak Yellow Perch year-class in 2022.

Lake Michigan↗

Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020. Water temperature simulations were conducted to compare the effect of two management alternatives: the no-action alternative where dams remain in place, and the action alternative where dam removal occurs in 2020 along with habitat restoration. Each management alternative was simulated under historical climate conditions (1961-2010) and six 50-year (2012-2061) climate scenarios. The model selected for the study, River Basin Model-10 (RBM10), was used to simulate water temperatures over a 253-mile reach of the Klamath River located in south-central Oregon and northern California. RBM10 uses a simple equilibrium flow model, assuming discharge in each river segment on each day is transmitted downstream instantaneously. The model uses a heat budget formulation to quantify heat flux at the air-water interface. Inputs for the heat budget were calculated from daily-mean meteorological data, including net shortwave solar radiation, net longwave atmospheric radiation, air temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and a psychrometric constant needed to calculate the Bowen ratio. The modeling domain was divided into nine reaches ranging in length from 10.8 to 42.4 miles, which were calibrated and validated separately with measured water temperature data collected irregularly from 1961 to 2010. Calibration root mean square errors of observed versus simulated water temperatures for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.5 degrees C. Mean absolute errors ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 degrees C. For model validation, a k-fold cross-validation technique was used. Validation root mean square error and mean absolute error for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.4 degrees C and 0.8 to 1.2 degrees C, respectively. Input data for the six future climate scenarios (2012-2061) were derived from historical hydrological and meteorological data and simulated meteorological output from five Global Circulation Models. Total Maximum Daily Loads or other regulatory processes that might reduce future water temperatures were not included in the simulations. Under the current climate conditions scenario, impacts of dam removal on water temperatures were greatest near Iron Gate Dam (near Yreka, California) and were attenuated in the lower reaches of the Klamath River. May and October simulated mean water temperatures increased and decreased by approximately 1-2 degrees C and 2-4 degrees C, respectively, downstream of Iron Gate Dam after dam removal. Dam removal also resulted in an earlier annual temperature cycle shift of 18 days, 5 days, and 2 days, near Iron Gate Dam, Scott River, and Trinity River, respectively. Although the magnitude of precipitation and air temperature change predicted by the five Global Circulation Models varied, all five models resulted in progressive incremental increases in water temperatures with each decade from 2012 to 2061. However, dam removal under KBRA appeared to delay the effects of climate change to some extent near Iron Gate Dam. With dam removal under KBRA, annual-mean water temperatures exceeded the 49-year historical mean temperature beginning in 2045; whereas with dams, annual-mean temperatures exceeded the historical mean beginning in 2025. Potential changes in seasonal water temperatures resulting from dam removal, with or without future climat

Open-File Report↗

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2021 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP, California, between April 5 and July 13, 2021. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed three to four times. We detected 551 territorial male vireos and 26 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 98 territorial male vireos were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 8 of the 10 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 89 percent were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 70 percent of all territories in areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 75 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 76 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 18 percent from 2020 to 2021. The number of territories in all but two core survey area drainages decreased by one or more between 2020 and 2021. The decrease in vireo numbers on MCBCP (18 percent) was consistent with population changes in surrounding areas, including the lower San Luis Rey River (24-percent decrease) and the middle San Luis Rey River (6-percent decrease). Most core-area vireo territories (59 percent of males) were in willow ( Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 7 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Of all the territories surveyed, 25 percent were in riparian scrub dominated by mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) or sandbar willow ( S. exigua ). Upland scrub was used by 8 percent of vireos; 1 percent of vireo territories were in non-native vegetation, and less than 1 percent of vireo territories were in alder or drier habitats co-dominated by coast live oak ( Quercus agrifolia ) and sycamore. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water present to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep areas within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the second year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. We sampled vegetation in two Seep sites and two Reference sites to determine the effects of a new water diversion dam that was completed in 2019 and two seep pumps that were installed to enhance surface water along the Santa Margarita River in 2019 and 2021. We measured higher total vegetation cover below 2 meters (m) at Seep sites than at Reference sites and lower total vegetation cover above 5 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Native herbaceous cover was also higher below 4 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Woody cover was lower above 5 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Soil moisture did not differ between Seep and Reference sites. The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. In 2021, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 164 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2021 season. Birds banded included 3 adult vireos and 161 juvenile vireos. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the right leg. There were 52 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2021 breeding season that were resighted and identified on Base in 2021. Of these vireos, 45 were banded on Base, 6 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to at least 7 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had a slightly but significantly higher survival rate than females. Adults had a higher survival rate than first-year vireos. Survival of both adults and first-year birds was high from 2007 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2013 and low from 2020 to 2021. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep or Reference sites ranged from 45 to 57 percent. Most returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2020 and 2021, 84 percent (94 percent of males; no females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.1±0.2 kilometer (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2021 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2020 was 1.1±0.7 km. We monitored Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. Vireos were monitored at two Seep sites and two Reference sites. Early in 2021, a seep was installed in a 2020 Reference site, which changed the status of this monitoring site from Reference to Seep. Nesting activity was monitored between April 5 and July 22 in 50 territories within the Seep and Reference sites (25 at Seep sites and 25 at Reference sites). All territories, except one, were occupied by pairs and all were fully monitored, meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 97 nests (42 in Seep sites and 55 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep site and Reference sites (3.6 and 3.4 young per pair, respectively), with 84 percent of Seep pairs and 88 percent of Reference pairs successfully fledging at least one young in 2021. Seep sites had a higher proportion of all eggs that hatched and also a higher proportion of nests with eggs that hatched than Reference sites. Seep sites and References sites had similar proportions of hatchlings that fledged and nests with hatchlings that fledged. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2021 was higher in Seep sites than in Reference sites. Completed nests at the Seep site were more likely to be successful than nests at Reference sites in 2021. At Seep sites, 75 percent of nests fledged young, whereas 53 percent of nests at Reference successfully fledged young. Vireos at Reference sites had to expend more energy in extra nest-building and egg-laying to produce a similar number of young as vireos at Seep sites. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 100 percent and 83 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs and other unknown causes. There were 11 plant species used as hosts for vireo nests in 2021. Successful vireo nests at Reference sites were further from the edge of host plants (closer to the center) and further from the edge of the nest plant clump than unsuccessful nests. Vireo nests at Seep sites were further from the edge of the host plant and the nest plant clump than vireo nests at Reference sites.

California↗

Natural offshore oil seepage and related tarball accumulation on the California coastline — Santa Barbara Channel and the southern Santa Maria Basin; source identification and inventory

Oil spillage from natural sources is very common in the waters of southern California. Active oil extraction and shipping is occurring concurrently within the region and it is of great interest to resource managers to be able to distinguish between natural seepage and anthropogenic oil spillage. The major goal of this study was to establish the geologic setting, sources, and ultimate dispersal of natural oil seeps in the offshore southern Santa Maria Basin and Santa Barbara Basins. Our surveys focused on likely areas of hydrocarbon seepage that are known to occur between Point Arguello and Ventura, California. Our approach was to 1) document the locations and geochemically fingerprint natural seep oils or tar; 2) geochemically fingerprint coastal tar residues and potential tar sources in this region, both onshore and offshore; 3) establish chemical correlations between offshore active seeps and coastal residues thus linking seep sources to oil residues; 4) measure the rate of natural seepage of individual seeps and attempt to assess regional natural oil and gas seepage rates; and 5) interpret the petroleum system history for the natural seeps. To document the location of sub-sea oil seeps, we first looked into previous studies within and near our survey area. We measured the concentration of methane gas in the water column in areas of reported seepage and found numerous gas plumes and measured high concentrations of methane in the water column. The result of this work showed that the seeps were widely distributed between Point Conception east to the vicinity of Coal Oil Point, and that they by in large occur within the 3-mile limit of California State waters. Subsequent cruises used sidescan and high resolution seismic to map the seafloor, from just south of Point Arguello, east to near Gaviota, California. The results of the methane survey guided the exploration of the area west of Point Conception east to Gaviota using a combination of seismic instruments. The seafloor was mapped by sidescan sonar, and numerous lines of high -resolution seismic surveys were conducted over areas of interest. Biomarker and stable carbon isotope ratios were used to infer the age, lithology, organic matter input, and depositional environment of the source rocks for 388 samples of produced crude oil, seep oil, and tarballs mainly from coastal California. These samples were used to construct a chemometric fingerprint (multivariate statistics) decision tree to classify 288 additional samples, including tarballs of unknown origin collected from Monterey and San Mateo County beaches after a storm in early 2007. A subset of 9 of 23 active offshore platform oils and one inactive platform oil representing a few oil reservoirs from the western Santa Barbara Channel were used in this analysis, and thus this model is not comprehensive and the findings are not conclusive. The platform oils included in this study are from west to east: Irene, Hildago, Harvest, Hermosa, Heritage, Harmony, Hondo, Holly, Platform A, and Hilda (now removed). The results identify three “tribes” of 13 C-rich oil samples inferred to originate from thermally mature equivalents of the clayey-siliceous, carbonaceous marl, and lower calcareous-siliceous members of the Monterey Formation. Tribe 1 contains four oil families having geochemical traits of clay-rich marine shale source rock deposited under suboxic conditions with substantial higher-plant input. Tribe 2 contains four oil families with intermediate traits, except for abundant 28,30-bisnorhopane, indicating suboxic to anoxic marine marl source rock with hemipelagic input. Tribe 3 contains five oil families with traits of distal marine carbonate source rock deposited under anoxic conditions with pelagic but little or no higher-plant input. Tribes 1 and 2 occur mainly south of Point Conception in paleogeographic settings where deep burial of the Monterey Formation source rock favored generation from all three members or their equivalents. In this area, oil from the clayey-siliceous and carbonaceous marl members (Tribes 1 and 2) may overwhelm that from the lower calcareous-siliceous member (Tribe 3) because the latter is thinner and less oil-prone than the overlying members. Tribe 3 occurs mainly north of Point Conception, where shallow burial caused preferential generation from the underlying lower calcareous-siliceous member or another unit with similar characteristics. It is very desirable to be able to clearly distinguish the naturally occurring seep oils from the anthropogenically derived platform oils. Within the “training set” of oils and tars (388 samples), the biomarker parameters are sometimes sufficient to allow unique discrimination of individual platform oils. More often however, platform samples and seep samples with sources geographically close to each other are too similar to each other, with respect to the biomarker parameters, to definitively differentiate them on that basis alone. In some cases other parameters can be helpful. These other parameters are related to the degree of biogeochemical degradation or weathering that the oils or tars have experienced. These components include the typical oil distribution of n-alkane hydrocarbons and isoprenoids pristane and phytane. All of the platform oils in our sample set contain these components. On the other hand, the seep oils or tars have been exposed to significant biodegradation while in the near subsurface. The majority, but not all of seep oils or tars have been biodegraded up to or beyond the loss of n-alkanes and isoprenoids. Seep oils found in the vicinity of Coal Oil Point or Arroyo Burro are apparently the least weathered and are particularly likely to retain significant n-alkanes and isoprenoids. Therefore the combination of chemometric fingerprinting and the presence or absence of n-alkanes and isoprenoids help to differentiate anthropogenic production oils versus natural seeps oils and tars. The differentiation is not always definitive because of the close chemical similarity of some samples and the variability in the biodegradation progression. This is the case near Coal Oil Point, and near Platform A (Dos Cuadros Field) where seep oils and Platform Holly and Platform A oils are genetically very similar and cannot be definitively distinguished after a period of a few days of weathering. In contrast, oils from the Point Conception platforms can be distinguished on the basis of chemometric fingerprinting alone. In the middle of this spectrum are oils from Platforms Harmony, Heritage, and Hondo, where it is expected that oil weathering would take on the order of two weeks to a month to produce tarballs similar to those seen near Point Conception. In this case there is a much greater degree of weathering needed to proceed from produced oil to the biodegraded tar characteristic of tarball stranded on the beach. Tar deposition on beaches was monitored as part of cooperative with the County of Santa Barbara Energy Division and the U.S. Geological Survey during 2001-2003. We found tar deposition varies on a seasonal basis. In general, tarballs accumulate at a faster rate or remain longer on all beaches during the summer and fall months. The reasons for this are unclear based on our limited observations, however we speculate that factors such as prevailing winds and currents combined with more quiescent wave conditions favors the accumulation and preservation of tarballs on the beach during the summer and fall months. In contrast, winter storms, with much greater wave action remove beach sand and other materials, and stormy seas tend to break up oil that might weather into tarballs. Natural seepage is affected by the spring/neap tidal cycle; however, the link to tar deposition is unclear. Longer periods of monitoring are needed to address the variability in the data and provide a more robust statistical analysis.

California↗

Age and growth of the lake whitefish, Coregonus clupeaformis (Mitchill), in Lake Erie

Although the whitefish has by no means ranked first from the standpoint of production, it has always been an important commercial species in Lake Erie. Trends in the output of whitefish have differed in the United States and Canadian waters of the lake. The 1893–1946 average annual yield of 1,201,000 pounds in the United States was only 38.3 percent of the 1879–1890 mean of 3,133,000 pounds, whereas in Canada the more recent (1907–1946) average annual take of 1,397,000 pounds has been 5.48 times the 1871–1906 mean of 255,000 pounds. The United States fishery was centered in the western part of Lake Erie (61.5 percent of the production in Michigan and Ohio) before 1921 and in the eastern part (62.6 percent in Pennsylvania and New York) in 1921–1946. The eastern part of Lake Erie (east of Port Burwell) dominated the Canadian production in 1900–1909 (65.4 percent) and in 1922–1946 (57.2 percent) but the western end was the more productive in 1871–1899 (79.8 percent) and 1910–1921 (69.7 percent). Ages were determined and individual growth histories calculated from the examination and measurement of the scales of 3,399 Lake Erie whitefish captured off four ports (Sandusky, Lorain, and Conneaut, Ohio, and Erie, Pennsylvania) over the period, 1927–1930. The number of specimens used for the investigation of other phases of the life history varied according to the amount of data available or required. Age-group III was typically (but not invariably) dominant in random samples from gear employed for the commercial production of whitefish (trap nets, pound nets, and large-mesh gill nets). The same age group also dominated most samples of the marketable catch (that is, whitefish that equalled or exceeded the minimum legal weight of 1 3/4 pounds) taken in late summer, autumn, and early winter. Age-group IV, however, was strongest among marketable fish from trap nets in early July although the III group was dominant in the random samples from the same nets. Apparently the members of a year class normally dominate the commercial catch about one year but this year extends over parts of two years of life (latter part of the fourth and early part of the fifth). The oldest whitefish in the collections were in the seventeenth year (age-group XVI). The year classes of 1922 and 1926 were much stronger than average whereas the 1923 year class seems to have been exceptionally weak. No correlation was detected between limnological-meteorological conditions and the strength of the year classes. Whitefish collected off different ports exhibited differences of growth rate that were at times rather large. The distorting effects of such factors as selection on the basis of maturity, annual fluctuations in growth rate (in combination with differences in the year of capture), and gear selection were held to be sufficiently great, however, to render doubtful the real biological significance of the observed variations in growth. Consequently the data for all samples were combined to obtain general growth curves. Female whitefish averaged longer and heavier than male fish of corresponding age. The advantage of the females with respect to calculated lengths tended to increase during the first three years of life and thereafter remained nearly constant at about one-half inch total length (10 millimeters of standard length). The advantages of the females with respect to weight increased consistently from 0.01 pound at the end of the first year to 0.36 pound at the end of the eighth, dropped to 0.32 pound in the ninth year, and increased again to a maximum of 0.47 pound at the end of 12 years. The maximum growth in length (sexes combined) occurred in the first year of life (calculated growth of 6.9 inches, total length). From this value the calculated annual increments declined rapidly to 0.7 inch in the seventh year. The later increments varied irregularly, ranging from 0.7 inch in the eighth and ninth years down to only 0.3 inch in the fifteenth and sixteenth years. The Lake Erie whitefish was a foot long in a little less than 2 years, 18 inches in about 4 years, and 2 feet in slightly under 12 years. At the end of 16 years the calculated length was 25.6 inches. The calculated annual increments of growth in weight increased from 0.10 pound in the first year to a maximum of 0.76 pound in the third. In the succeeding years the increment decreased consistently to 0.33 pound in the twelfth year. The values in the thirteenth to sixteenth years varied irregularly, ranging from 0.22 to 0.34 pound. The minimum legal weight of 1 3/4 pounds was attained toward the middle of the fourth growing season. The Lake Erie whitefish reached the weight of 4 pounds in between 7 and 8 years, and of 6 pounds in about 13 years. At the end of 16 years the calculated weight was 6.87 pounds. Analyses of the annual increments of length revealed that the growth of whitefish captured from the spawning run off Sandusky and Lorain rose from 3.2 percent above the 1924–1930 mean in 1924 to a peak of 15.0 percent above average in 1927 and then declined to a minimum of 25.0 percent below average in 1930. There is evidence that these annual fluctuations in growth rate were correlated negatively with fluctuations in the turbidity of the water off Erie, Pennsylvania (to our best knowledge the whitefish spends the summer months in the eastern part of the lake), in certain months (especially May and June) and/or correlated positively with the amount of rainfall in July and August at the same locality. Comparisons with data on the growth of the Lake Huron whitefish revealed that Lake Erie fish were the longer during the first 5 years of life and the shorter at the end of the sixth and later years. The Lake Huron whitefish did not, however, gain the advantage in weight until the seventh year. Whitefish grew much more slowly in both length and weight in Lake Ontario than in either Lake Huron or Lake Erie. The weight of the Lake Erie whitefish increased to the 3.1523 power of the length. Agreement between empirical weights and those computed from the length-weight equation was reasonably good at lengths represented by fair numbers of fish. The total length corresponding to the minimum legal weight of 1 3/4 pounds was calculated as 16.9 inches. The rather limited data on the monthly fluctuations in condition indicated that the coefficient K of immature fish declined continuously from August to December. A similar though less pronounced decline of K of mature fish occurred from August to October. At spawning in November and December, female whitefish lost an additional 11 percent of their body weight. No loss of weight at spawning could be demonstrated for the males. The available records indicated the relative abundance of the sexes to be approximately equal in samples collected in the summer and early autumn. Males were strongly predominant (78.6 percent), however, in spawning-run samples. In these collections the percentage of males decreased markedly with increase in age. No trend could be detected in the variation of the sex ratio within the spawning season over the period of time (nearly 4 weeks) for which there were records. Although exceptional individuals of either sex may mature at the end of 2 years of life (age-group I) male whitefish do not mature in appreciable numbers until the end of the third year (age-group II) or females until the end of the fourth (age-group III). Apparently most or all males are mature as age-group III, but there is evidence that considerable numbers of females (possibly a majority) are first mature as members of the IV group (end of fifth year of life). Whether Lake Erie whitefish are ever immature as the V group or older is not known. Spawning commenced during the second week of November and was continuing actively at the time of collection of the last samples at the end of the first week of December

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Hydrology and water and sediment quality at James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge near Kahuku, Island of Oahu, Hawaii

The James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge occupies two lowland marsh and pond complexes on the northern coastal plain of Oahu: the mostly natural ponds and wetlands of the Punamano Unit and the constructed ponds of the Kii Unit. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages the Refuge primarily to protect and enhance habitat for four endangered species of Hawaiian waterbirds. Kii Unit is fed by artesian wells and rainfall, whereas Punamano Unit is fed naturally by rainfall, runoff, and ground-water seepage. Streams drain from the uplands into lowland ditches that pass through Kii Unit on their way to the ocean. A high-capacity pump transfers water from the inner ditch terminus at Kii to the ocean outlet channel. Stormwaters also exit the inner ditch system over flood-relief swales near the outlet pump and through a culvert with a one-way valve. A hydrologic investigation was done from November 1996 through February 1998 to identify and quantify principal inflows and outflows of water to and from the Refuge, identify hydraulic factors affecting flooding, document ground-water/surface-water interactions, determine the adequacy of the current freshwater supply, and determine water and sediment quality. These goals were accomplished by installing and operating a network of stream-gaging stations, meteorology stations, and shallow ground-water piezometers, by computing water budgets for the two Refuge units, and by sampling and analyzing water and pond-bottom sediments for major ions, trace metals, and organic compounds. Streamflow during the study was dominated by winter stormflows, followed by a gradual recession of flow into summer 1997, as water that had been stored in alluvial fans drained to lowland ditches. Outflow at the ditch terminus in 1997 was 125 million gallons greater than measured inflow to the coastal plain, mainly reflecting gains from ground water along the ditches between outlying gages and the ditch terminus. Of the measured 1997 outflow, 98 percent was through the Kii outlet pump, with the outlet culvert valve only opening for brief periods during storms. Large volumes of stormflow overflowed the flood-relief swales unmeasured. The largest storm of the study, in November 1996, was estimated to have a flood frequency of about 3 to 4 years. Streamflow exceeded culvert capacity and overtopped Kamehameha Highway at Kalaeokahipa Stream and Hospital ditch. Slight overbank flooding in Kii ditch resulted strictly from high discharge. Minor overbank flooding farther out on the coastal plain probably was caused mainly by the small hydraulic gradients available to convey stormflows along the lowland ditches. Stormwaters flooded Kii ponds and flowed back upstream along Punamano ditch into Punamano marsh, introducing suspended sediment and possibly other contaminants to the Refuge. Two smaller storms in January 1997 resulted in smaller flows and no overbank flooding. The Kii outlet pump ran continuously for 7 days during the November 1996 storm and for 1 to 2 days during the January 1997 storms. During all three storms, the outlet culvert valve opened and the inner ditches overtopped the flood-relief swales, allowing free outflow of water from the inner ditch. Backwater effects hindered drainage during the January 1997 storms at Hospital ditch at Kamehameha Highway, and at Punamano ditch at Nudist Camp Road (where the backflow into Punamano marsh in November 1996 constituted an extreme backwater effect). A probable marine backwater effect was imposed at the ocean outlet ditch during the November 1996 storm through a combination of high spring tides and wave setup from large surf. Whether this backwater effect propagated upstream in the ditches to affect inland sites could not be determined conclusively. A sand plug may have built up in the ocean outlet channel before the November 1996 storm, but if so, it probably washed out prior to, or early in the storm, and was not present at the time of peak stage at inland sites. A season-long buildup of the sand plug in late 1997 was inferred from rising water levels in the outlet ditch. Seawater flows up the outlet channel or over the sand berm and into the outer ditch system on most high tides, and particularly during spring high tides. Ponds and ditches of the Refuge and surrounding lowlands have mud- and clay-lined bottoms that form an effective confining unit and inhibit interaction with an underlying shallow limestone aquifer. At Kii Unit, pond levels are higher than adjacent ditch levels and underlying ground-water levels, establishing lateral and downward head gradients that could foster seepage losses from the ponds. Regional ground-water discharge from the Koolau aquifer to the coastal-plain sediments is mostly diffuse, but is concentrated where ridges of Koolau Basalt plunge beneath coastal-plain sediments near Punamano Unit and at the head of Hospital ditch. Kii ditch gains brackish ground water downstream of Kamehameha Highway. Wastewater disposal from the sewage treatment plant adjoining Kii Unit poses little or no threat to Refuge habitat. Disposal is at six injection wells located 0.45 mi away at Kahuku, and the wells inject into confined limestone aquifers that do not extend to Kii Unit. The natural freshwater supply to Punamano Unit is adequate for maintaining the wildlife habitat, judging from stable pond levels and low salinities there. A monthly water budget for Punamano showed an apparent annual deficit in measurable flows in 1997, requiring unmeasured ground-water gains equalling 51 inches of water. The freshwater supply to Kii Unit is inadequate according to Refuge managers, because there is not enough water to manipulate levels adequately in the ponds during most of the year, and particularly during the driest months. This is confirmed by monthly deficits in the water budget for the Kii ponds during summer months. However, the Kii budget showed an annual surplus in measurable flows for 1997 equalling 24 inches of water. Unmeasured losses are required to explain the apparent annual surplus, such as discharge to the ditches through pond water-control structures and downward and/or lateral ground-water seepage. The apparent surplus at Kii is strictly hydrologic and is not a surplus in a management sense; it cannot be stored or used to supply the Refuge, but instead reflects losses from the system that render this amount of water unavailable for use. The budget year, 1997, was drier than normal (24 percent below long-term mean rainfall) and so the measured potential evaporation for 1997 was probably higher than the long-term mean. Few metals or organic compounds of potential concern were detected in pond and ditch waters and in pond-bottom sediments. Detected pesticides were at trace levels or just above minimum reporting limits. Exceptions that exceeded quality guidelines for freshwater sediment were copper and zinc in sediment from Kii ponds C and D, and copper in sediment from Punamano north pond. Therefore, urban and agricultural runoff probably have contributed little in the way of harmful metals or organic compounds to the Refuge, although the potential for such contribution remains from periodic flooding of the ponds by ditch stormflows. Salinity was low throughout most Refuge waters, qualifying as fresh to slightly brackish and suitable for the environmental needs of Refuge fauna. Higher salinities have been observed in ditches during past periods of sugarcane cultivation and saltwater aquaculture, however. Resumption of saltwater aquaculture could raise ditch salinities if saltwater effluents are disposed directly into the ditches, as they were in the past.

Hawaii↗

FishPass baseline assessment of fish community assemblage and migratory patterns in in the Boardman River, Traverse City, Michigan, USA

This report on baseline assessment of fish community assemblage and migratory patterns of fishes in the lower Boardman River (LBR; Traverse City, MI (USA)) is one of four assessment projects conceived circa 2017 after the Boardman (Ottaway) River was selected by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) and collaborating agencies as the future site of the Selective Bi-directional Fish Passage (FishPass) project. This report describes the results from fisheries community sampling from 2017-2021 and the concurrent bio-telemetry project aimed at understanding phenological changes in the fish community and movement and space-use of a variety of large-bodied fishes in the LBR against which selective fish passage treatments will be developed and evaluated. Fish migration in riverine environments is a growing area of concern as mounting anthropogenic influences, particularly fragmentation from dams and barriers, constitute a major threat to global river species diversity. Specifically, In the Laurentian Great Lakes basin, more than 250,000 dams, weirs, culverts, and other significant obstructions prevent the movement of species both between the Great Lakes and rivers, and within rivers. Barriers impede the movement of fishes between areas critical to the completion of their lifecycle, affecting both population and ecosystem viability. However, a conundrum arises in that the same barriers can also prevent the upstream invasion of non-native or undesirable species (most notably the sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the Great Lakes),prevent the transfer of contaminants and diseases, halt deleterious genes, provide recreational opportunities, or generate power. As a result, fish passage solutions with the capability of selectively passing desirable taxa while restricting the dispersal of undesirable taxa (selective connectivity) are sought to solve this connectivity conundrum. FishPass is a multi-agency initiative planned to replace the Union Street Dam on the Boardman River in Traverse City,MI (USA), aimed at developing and implementing automatic or semiautomatic selective bi-directional fish guidance, sorting, and passage techniques and technologies. Pivotal to both the successful development of selective connectivity and assessment of its effects is a more complete understanding of the Boardman River’s fishery. Specifically, understanding the species and size composition of the fish community, fish movement phenology and the associated abiotic conditions. Fish community sampling confirmed the presence of 28 unique species in the LBR (Boardman River reach below Union Street Dam). Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag telemetry increased the resolution of phenological shifts in the fish community that could not have been captured from periodic fish sampling. This data demonstrates large variation within species and overlap between species presence. However, discrete periods of presence were identified across most species when considering the central tendencies in the distribution of their presence. Rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss were found to be omni-present in the river while brown trout Salmo trutta and smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu also persisted throughout a majority of the year; all of which will require continually sorting at FishPass. PIT tag telemetry also provided the important understanding that individuals (3-64%) of all species return to the LBR across multiple years. Radio telemetry (RT) proved useful in refining the entry and exit timing and in evaluating the proportion of individuals that encountered the current Union Street Dam and Kid’s Creek (the only tributary confluence below the Union Street Dam) across six species (common white sucker Catostomus commersonii, rainbow trout, smallmouth bass, walleye Sander vitreus, brown trout, and common carp Cyprinus carpio). The RT results show that these species are present in FishPass Research Publication: baseline assessment of fish community assemblage and migratory pattern in the Boardman River, Traverse City, Michigan, USA November 2023 7 between April and August. Our analysis also demonstrated that not all fish that entered the river proceeded to the Union Street Dam, but those that did, did so prior to being detected encountering Kid’s Creek. Common white sucker and rainbow trout were the only species to be detected encountering Kid’s Creek. Collectively, the results of this study provide a baseline understanding of the seasonal fish diversity and relative abundance of fishes in the LBR, and a basic description of observed movement patterns of a subset of species in the context of seasonal phenology, entry and exit behavior within the LBR, and the propensity at which telemetered individuals encounter the Union Street dam and/or Kid’s Creek.

Michigan↗

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗

Fishway Entrance Palisade

This technical report summarizes the work that was conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), along with other project partners, on the Fishway Entrance Palisade (EP), a projected funded through the Department of Energy’s (DOE) funding opportunity titled ‘Innovative Solutions for Fish Passage at Hydropower Dams’ (DE‐FOA‐0001662). The period of performance ranged from September 1, 2018 through September 30, 2021. The EP is a novel fish passage engineering technology designed to provide more favorable entry conditions for fish and to reduce costs relative to conventional fishway auxiliary water systems (AWS). The EP project has four primary components. First, the Northeast United States Auxiliary Water Systems Database was created (Northeast Fishway Auxiliary Water Systems Database Section). The database, developed with material provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, contains information on fishway type (e.g., lift, Denil, pool and weir) and Auxiliary Water System (AWS) details (e.g., water conveyance method, diffuser type) for 60 hydroelectric sites in the region. Findings indicate that nearly 4 out of every 10 fishway in the region is a fish lift and approximately 1 out of every 4 is a Denil ladder. The remainder are a mix of vertical slot fishways, pool and weirs, and Ice Harbor fishways. Furthermore, over half of all AWS systems use floor diffusers to discharge the auxiliary (or attraction) water into the entrance of a fishway, whereas only 14% use wall diffusers. Second, limited experiments on a conventional AWS with live, actively migrating fish were conducted at the USGS Easter Ecological Science Center (EESC) S.O. Conte Research Laboratory (Conventional Auxiliary Water System Experiments Section). This study determined how water velocity through a wall diffuser, without turning vanes or timber baffles to distribute the flow, affects the behavior and passage of adult American shad, a conservative surrogate species for migratory fish on the East Coast. Two gross diffuser velocity treatments were examined, 0.5 ft/s and 1.0 ft/s. These wall diffuser velocities represented current (0.5 ft/s) and past (1.0 ft/s) design criteria guidelines set forth by the USFWS North Atlantic-Appalachian Region (Rojas 2020; USFWS 2019). Six trials with a total of 151 American Shad were conducted in June of 2019 for the two treatments. No differences in American shad passage efficiency were discovered between the two treatments, while approximately 3 in every 4 attempts were successful at passing the diffuser. While these results may appear to indicate that the generally accepted gross wall diffuser velocity criteria for American shad of 0.5 ft/s could be safely increased to 1.0 ft/s, further analysis is warranted. Furthermore, it is unknown how other migratory and resident fish species that traverse these structures would be impacted by such a change. Studying the wall diffuser hydraulics led to an important AWS observation. Without turning vanes or timber baffles in this study, doubling the diffuser area was insufficient at producing the type of flow field change one may expect by halving the gross diffuser velocity. Instead, the flow fields throughout each treatments study area were similar, which led to similar results in shad performance. This not only highlights the importance of installing flow guidance devices like turning vanes, but also to the importance of properly maintaining them, which can be costly. Third, more expansive experiments on the novel EP were conducted in the spring of 2019 and 2021 (Fishway Entrance Palisade Experiments). The goal of this study was to determine how adult American shad responded to a variety of conditions at a full-scale EP. A total of six treatments were examined by changing the average auxiliary channel velocity between 1.0 and 5.0 ft/s in intervals of 1.0 ft/s and by inserting/removing an entrance gate at the opening of the fishway. Thirty trials with a total of 1,273 shad were conducted over the two years. In all treatments, at least ~7 out of every 10 fish successfully passed the EP diffuser and swam into the entrance channel within the 3.5-hour long trial, highlighting the general effectiveness of the novel AWS technology. In both study years, lower velocities through the EP diffuser led to increased shad performance, though performance peaked for the 2 ft/s velocity treatment. This treatment condition represents an approximate six-fold increase in gross diffuser velocity relative to conventional auxiliary water systems, which in turn presents opportunities for cost savings (e.g., reduction in diffuser size). Shad performance, in general, was worse in 2019 than in 2021, potentially due to the different run timing when our trials were conducted (2019 trials occurred near the end of the migration season, unlike in 2021). Treatments in 2019 had approximately a 20% reduction in entrance efficiency by the trial end, including a 16.7% drop for the 3 ft/s velocity treatment in 2019 relative to 2021 (the only carryover treatment between years). Lastly, adding an entrance gate caused a significant delay to entry. The time to 25% entry raised ~20 minutes from the near instantaneous 25% entry that was reported for the other treatments conducted in the same year (2021). Though by the end of the 3.5-hour trial, the overall entrance efficiency nearly matched those of the other 2021 treatments. The fourth and final component of the EP project was an economic analysis that focused on the cost of attraction and environmental flows (Modeling Power Generation Losses Due to Environmental and Fish Passage Attraction Flows at a Run-Of-River Hydroelectric Operation in the Northeast). The study assessed the economic impact of meeting environmental flow requirements at a representative hydroelectric facility and fish lift in the Northeast. An initial finding of the study was that there is a paucity of published data on the costs of meeting attraction and environmental flows. This is due, in part, to the proprietary nature of this data. To explore the costs associated with these flows, three types of environmental flows were assessed: upstream fishway attraction flows, downstream fishway attraction flows, and habitat maintenance minimum flows. A physics-based model was developed and calibrated with three years of hourly generation and flow data as inputs. Gage flow inputs were adjusted and used to calculate power generated. To address hydrologic variability, the model was executed to simulate 30 years of historical flows. Results indicate that both interannual and seasonal climatic factors impact the costs of meeting environmental flow requirements. Generation potential is most strongly curtailed during dry years in terms of maximizing the capacity factor (the percent of time a plant generates at capacity). Dry years, and especially dry summers, have the most significant costs associated with mitigation flows. Of the three types of flows, habitat flows are most costly in terms of power production, followed by upstream attraction flows. Downstream attraction flows are least costly. This finding is the likely result of differences in both flow rates and duration of the seasonal requirement for each flow. Overall, environmental flows represented a 2-12% loss in annual generation, but losses during a dry summer can reach over 20%.

Final Technical Report↗

Distribution, abundance, breeding activities, and habitat use of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2020–24 summary report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with a summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California (MCBCP or Base). The report presents results of vireo surveys and monitoring in 2024 and summarizes a subset of data collected from 2020 through 2024. Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP between April 4 and July 9, 2024. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 542 territorial male vireos and 17 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 102 territorial male vireos and 2 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 5 of the 10 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). In core survey areas, 87 percent of vireo territories were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 67 percent of all territories in core areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 77 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 76 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 3 percent from 2023. In five core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least two, and in two core survey area drainages, the Santa Margarita River and Las Flores Creek, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least nine between 2023 and 2024. The number of vireo territories at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton did not change from 2023 to 2024. The proportion of surveys during which Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) were detected decreased to 0.03 from a peak of 0.45 in 2022. Cowbirds were detected in April and June in 2024. Most core-area vireos (58 percent, including transients) used mixed willow ( Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 9 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ). Riparian scrub dominated by mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ), sandbar willow ( S. exigua ), or blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana ) was used by 33 percent of vireos. Habitat dominated by non-native vegetation was used by 1 percent of vireos. Since 2020, the number of vireos detected in each of the non-core survey groups was greater than expected, based on the change in vireo numbers in core survey areas. Although, the number of vireo territories on Base decreased from 2020–24, from approximately 1,224 to approximately 960, the trend in vireo territory numbers on Base since 2005 has been positive. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface during daylight hours starting in mid-April and ending in August each year and were designed to increase the amount of surface water to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited MCBCP, including the seep areas, within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the fifth year of annual monitoring and analyses summarizing all 5 years of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. In 2020, we established four study sites along the Santa Margarita River, two surrounding and extending downstream from existing and proposed seep pumps at the Old Treatment Ponds and along Pump Road and two Reference sites in similar habitat downstream from the Seep sites. Seep pumps began operating at the Old Treatment Ponds in 2020 and along Pump Road in 2021. In 2023, seep pumps at the Pump Road Seep site did not function, and we recategorized that study site as Intermediate. We sampled vegetation at Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites to determine the effects of surface-water enhancement by seep pumps. In 2024, vegetation cover was highest near the ground and decreased with increasing height. Woody vegetation made up most of the cover at all height categories. We determined that Seep and Intermediate sites differed from each other in addition to differing from Reference sites, which likely is, in part, because seep-pump operation at the Intermediate site was inconsistent compared to the Seep site. Soil saturation in 2024 was high at the Intermediate site and was associated with high native herbaceous cover and low non-native herbaceous cover. Sites differed, with the Intermediate site having more upper canopy cover in general, the Seep site having more low woody cover, and the Reference sites having more mid-canopy non-native vegetation cover. Soil saturation significantly increased from 2020 through 2024 at the Seep site and was significantly higher at Seep and Intermediate sites than at their paired Reference sites in all years. Soil saturation likely was increased by the supplemental surface water at the Seep site. However, soil saturation at the Intermediate site was not clearly associated with seep pumps but likely affected by soil saturation at the site before seep-pump installation and flooding from high precipitation. Canopy height increased at the Intermediate site from 2020 through 2024 and increased with increasing soil saturation at the Intermediate and Reference sites. The canopy at the Seep site was shorter than at the Intermediate and Reference sites and decreased from 2020 through 2024 because tall trees were damaged and killed by shothole borer beetles ( Euwallacea spp.). We used Redundancy Analysis to discover associations among vegetation types, plant species, and other environmental variables (soil saturation, site, precipitation, and seep operation, defined as the site and year seep pumps were operating). These associations explained less than 15 percent of the variability in the vegetation, with the remaining 85 percent of variation unexplained. Generally, as soil saturation increased, understory vegetation increased and non-native cover decreased in the mid-and upper canopy. Non-native herbaceous plant species decreased in wetter soil. The Seep site was characterized by more understory and less canopy, contrasting with the Intermediate site, which was characterized by less understory and more higher canopy cover. The addition of surface water via seep pumps or precipitation was associated with more vegetation near the ground. Higher early winter precipitation was associated with taller canopy and more woody vegetation in the upper canopy. We also created a Redundancy Analysis model isolating the components of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher habitat, as identified by Howell and others (2018). In this model, increased soil saturation resulted in increased cover of stinging nettle ( Urtica dioica ) and black willow ( Salix gooddingii ) below 3 meters (m), total cover 3–6 m, and black willow above 6 m. Cover of poison hemlock ( Conium maculatum ) and stinging nettle below 3 m was higher at the Seep site and lower at the Intermediate site. Vireo territory density among the Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. However, vireo territory density at Seep and Intermediate sites combined was significantly higher than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed. We banded and resighted color banded vireos as part of a long-term evaluation of vireo survival, site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo return rate and between-year movement. We banded 164 Least Bell's Vireo nestlings during the 2024 season. In 2024, we resighted 31 Least Bell's Vireos on Base that had been banded before the 2024 breeding season, and we were able to identify 25 of them. Of the 25 that we could identify, 24 were banded on Base and 1 was originally banded on the San Luis Rey River. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 9 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had significantly higher annual survival than females (60 percent versus 47 percent, respectively). Adults had higher annual survival than first-year vireos (61 percent versus 11 percent, respectively). The return rate of adult vireos to Seep, Intermediate, or Reference sites was not affected by the original banding site (Seep versus Intermediate versus Reference). Most returning adult vireos, predominantly males, showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2023, 92 percent (all males) returned in 2024 to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.4±0.03 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2024 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2023 was 2.4±3.1 km. We monitored 47 Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. Breeding productivity in 2024 was similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites (2.8, 3.0, and 3.0 young fledged per pair, respectively), and the percentage of pairs that fledged at least one young was not significantly different among sites (83, 91, and 96 percent, respectively). According to the best model, daily nest survival from 2020–24 was not related to site. Other measures of breeding productivity were also similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference site pairs. Between 2020 and 2024, the number of vireo fledglings produced per pair increased with increasing native herbaceous cover under 3 m and decreasing cover of all herbaceous vegetation under 5 m and was not affected by precipitation, site, or seep operation. The number of vireo fledglings produced per egg was lower at the Seep and Intermediate sites than at the Reference sites and increased with decreasing late winter precipitation, cover of poison hemlock, black mustard, non-native vegetation above 2 m, and all vegetation over 2 m. Vireo pairs at Seep and Intermediate sites were less likely to fledge young than vireo pairs at Reference sites. All vireo pairs were more likely to fledge young with less cover of poison hemlock and more cover of poison oak. From 2020 through 2024, vireos placed their nests in 24 plant species. The most used plants in all years were willows, mostly red ( S. laevigata ), or arroyo ( S. lasiolepis ). The fate of a vireo nest (whether it successfully fledged young or not) was not affected by placement in native or non-native vegetation, by site, or by year, but nests were more likely to be successful if they were placed in woody plants than in herbaceous plants. Successful nests were placed higher in the host plant and farther from the outer edge of the nest clump than unsuccessful nests.

California↗

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2022 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP, California, between April 4 and July 12, 2022. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 571 territorial male vireos and 14 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 90 territorial male vireos and 2 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 7 of the 11 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 90 percent were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 73 percent of all territories in areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 81 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 61 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP increased 4 percent from 2021 to 2022. In three core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least two, and in five core survey area drainages, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least two between 2021 and 2022. The increase in the number of vireo territories on MCBCP was consistent with population changes at the lower San Luis Rey River (7-percent increase), but not with Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton (10-percent decrease). A wildfire in July 2021 burned approximately 22 hectares of vireo habitat on the Santa Margarita River. There was no difference in the number of vireo territories within the fire perimeter before the fire (three territories in 2021) and after the fire (three territories in 2022). Most core-area vireos (52 percent, including transients) used mixed willow (Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 8 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Riparian scrub composed of mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ), sandbar willow ( S. exigua ), or blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana ) was used at 37 percent of vireo territories. Upland scrub was used by 2 percent of the vireos, and 1 percent of vireo territories were in drier habitats co-dominated by coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and sycamore. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep areas within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the third year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. We sampled vegetation in two Seep sites and two Reference sites to determine the effects of surface water enhancement by seep pumps installed along the Santa Margarita River. Total vegetation cover below 2 meters (m) was greater at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Conversely, there was more non-native vegetation cover above 2 m (from 2 to 4 m) at Reference sites than at Seep sites. Soil moisture was greater at Seep sites than at Reference sites and decreased with increasing distance from the seep outlets. Soil moisture was positively correlated with total foliage cover and woody cover at most height categories. Soil moisture was not correlated with total herbaceous cover at any height category, although it was positively correlated with native herbaceous cover from 1 to 2 m and negatively correlated with non-native cover from 2 to 4 m. The number of vireo fledglings produced per egg was positively correlated with woody cover from 0 to 2 m but negatively correlated with herbaceous cover from 0 to 2 m. The number of fledglings produced per pair was negatively correlated with herbaceous and non-native vegetation cover below 2 m. The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. By the end of 2021, 978 Least Bell’s Vireos had been color banded on Base. In 2022, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 135 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2022 season. Birds banded included 4 adult vireos and 131 juveniles. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the left leg. There were 43 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2022 breeding season that were resighted and identified on Base in 2022. Of these vireos, 39 were banded on Base, 3 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to at least 7 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had a significantly higher survival rate than females. Adults had a higher survival rate than first-year vireos. Survival for adults and first-year birds was lowest from 2020 to 2021 and highest from 2012 to 2013. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep or Reference sites was not affected by whether they were originally banded at a Seep versus Reference site. Most of the returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults detected in 2021 and 2022, 89 percent (92 percent of males; 67 percent of females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.1±0.2 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2022 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2021 was 1.6±1.8 km. Vireo territory density at the Seep and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. Although vireo territory density at Seep sites appeared greater than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed, the difference was not significant. We monitored Least Bell’s Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. We monitored vireo nesting activity at 25 territories in 2 Seep sites and 25 territories in 2 Reference sites between March 31 and July 28. All territories except one were occupied by pairs, and all were “fully monitored,” meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 97 nests (49 in Seep sites and 48 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep and Reference sites (2.7 and 3.3 young fledged per pair, respectively), although more pairs at Reference sites than Seep sites fledged at least one young (96 versus 76 percent, respectively). There were no other differences in breeding productivity between Seep site pairs and Reference site pairs. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2022 was not related to whether the territory was in a Seep versus a Reference site. Completed nests at the Seep sites had similar fledging success as nests at Reference sites in 2022. At Seep sites, 56 percent of nests fledged young whereas 67 percent of Reference nests successfully fledged young. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 80 percent and 73 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs and other unknown causes. Vireos placed their nests in 12 plant species in 2022. We detected no differences in nest placement between successful and unsuccessful vireo nests or between Seep and Reference sites. Precipitation appeared to play a role in fluctuations in the vireo population on MCBCP; however, it could not be directly linked to annual vireo breeding productivity. One possible factor that may be confounding the relationship between vireo breeding productivity and precipitation may be nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) in the region, especially on the nearby San Luis Rey River.

California↗

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Bodega Head, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California&rsquo;s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Bodega Head map area is located in northern California, about 70 km north of San Francisco and about 80 km south of Point Arena. The onshore part of the map area is largely undeveloped, used primarily for recreation, farms and ranches, and a few wineries. The small town of Bodega Bay, located on the east side of Bodega Harbor, is the largest cultural center. Bodega Harbor is an important commercial fishing base and, in season, an active sport fishing and recreation harbor. Much of the coastline from Bodega Head north to about 6 km north of the Russian River is part of Sonoma Coast State Park. The Offshore of Bodega Head map area includes two California Marine Protected Areas, the Bodega Head State Marine Reserve and the northern part of the Bodega Head State Marine Conservation Area. Additionally, the inland parts of two large estuaries in the map area, Estero Americano and Estero de San Antonio, have been designated as State Marine Recreational Management Areas. The map area is cut by the northwest-striking San Andreas Fault, the right-lateral transform boundary between the North American and Pacific plates. This fault juxtaposes rocks of the Jurassic and Cretaceous Franciscan Complex on the northeast with Cretaceous granitic rocks on the southwest, and it has an estimated slip rate of about 17 to 25 mm/yr in this area. The devastating great 1906 California earthquake (M7.8) is thought to have nucleated on the San Andreas Fault offshore of San Francisco, about 80 km south of Bodega Head, with the rupture extending northward through the Offshore of Bodega Head map area and an additional 220 km to the south flank of Cape Mendocino. North of the mouth of Salmon Creek, the coast and shoreline are rugged and scenic, characterized by flights of uplifted marine terraces, rocky promontories, nearshore sea stacks, kelp-rich coves, and both pocket beaches and longer beach strands, the latter of which include Wrights Beach and Portuguese Beach. The coast has lower relief between the mouth of Salmon Creek and Mussel Point, where South Salmon Creek Beach is backed by a large (about 4 km 2 ) complex of coastal sand dunes. The enormous volume of sand on the beach and in the dune field is derived by southward littoral drift from the Russian River, Salmon Creek, and smaller coastal watersheds. The sediment is trapped by protruding bedrock at Mussel Point, which represents the south end of the Russian River littoral cell. Bodega Head is underlain by Cretaceous granitic rocks, and its shoreline is variously characterized by relatively low-lying terraces, steep and high bluffs, and a few pocket beaches. East of Bodega Head, Doran Beach (part of Doran Regional Park) is a 1.7-km-long sand spit that forms the north boundary of Bodega Bay and the south boundary of Bodega Harbor. The coast south of Doran Beach on the east flank of Bodega Bay is composed of rocky bluffs, hummocky marine terraces, and a few small pocket beaches. The bluffs are underlain by sheared rocks of the Franciscan Complex and are highly susceptible to landslides. This section of coast includes two prominent watersheds, Estero Americano and Estero de San Antonio, which drain westward into Bodega Bay. The offshore part of the Offshore of Bodega Head map area is characterized by an extensive, rugged and rocky shelf underlain by Cretaceous granitic rocks. This rocky terrain, centered offshore of Bodega Head, extends northwestward for about 15 km, from the south edge of the map area (where it forms the west boundary of Bodega Bay) to the northern-central part of the map area offshore of the mouth of Salmon Creek. This rocky seafloor reaches water depths of 40 to 80 m and is overlain by young sediment. Circulation over the shelf and seafloor in the map area (and in the broader central California region) is dominated by the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern boundary current of the North Pacific Gyre. Associated upwelling brings cool, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, resulting in high biological productivity. Persistent northwest winds are sometimes weak or absent during the fall and winter, causing the California Current to move farther offshore so that the shelf is affected by the Davidson Current, a weaker northward-flowing countercurrent. As a result, net flow over the continental shelf is commonly southeastward during the spring and summer and northwestward during the fall and winter. Throughout the year, this part of the northern California coast is exposed to four wave climate regimes: the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months (typically November through March). During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore of Central America. Northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year, whereas local wind waves are most common from October to April. Potential marine benthic habitats in the Offshore of Bodega Head map area include unconsolidated continental-shelf sediments, mixed continental-shelf substrate, and hard continental-shelf substrate. Rocky-shelf outcrops and rubble are considered to be promising potential habitats for rockfish and lingcod, both of which are recreationally and commercially important species.

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Comprehensive water quality of the Boulder Creek Watershed, Colorado, during high-flow and low-flow conditions, 2000

Executive Summary The Boulder Creek Watershed, Colorado, is 1160 square kilometers in area and ranges in elevation from 1480 to 4120 meters above sea level. Streamflow originates primarily as snowmelt near the Continental Divide, and thus discharge varies seasonally and annually (Chapter 1). Most of the water in Boulder Creek is diverted for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use. Some diverted water is returned to the creek as wastewater effluent and by ditch returns, and additional water enters as groundwater and by transbasin diversions. These diversions and returns lead to complex temporal and spatial variations in discharge. The variations in discharge, along with natural factors such as geology and climate, and anthropogenic factors such as wastewater treatment, agriculture, mining, and urbanization, can affect water chemistry. As with many watersheds in the American West, dependable water quality and sufficient water supply are issues facing local water managers and users. Detailed water-quality and sediment sampling allows the identification of sources and sinks of chemical constituents and an understanding of the processes at work in a river system. This study, the most comprehensive water-quality analysis performed for Boulder Creek to date, was a cooperative effort of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Boulder. Geographic information systems and modeling programs were used to delineate watershed boundaries, land cover, and geology (Chapter 2). During high-flow (June 2000) and low-flow (October 2000) conditions, researchers evaluated 226 water-quality variables, including basic water-quality indicators (Chapter 3), major ions and trace elements (Chapter 4), wastewater-derived organic compounds (Chapter 5), and pesticides (Chapter 6). Discharge (Chapter 1) and bed-sediment particle size and mineralogy (Chapter 7) were also evaluated. This cooperative study was facilitated by the Boulder Area Sustainability Information Network (BASIN), which provides public access to environmental information about the Boulder Creek Watershed on a website, www.basin.org. In addition to the USGS and city of Boulder data, researchers at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado provided water chemistry data for the headwaters of North Boulder Creek, upstream of the reach of the USGS/city of Boulder sampling sites (Chapter 8). Snowmelt produces high flows in Boulder Creek in late spring to early summer (Chapter 1). Because precipitation falling in the headwaters is very dilute (specific conductance about 5 microsiemens per centimeter), most chemical constituents are present in lower concentrations during high flows (Chapters 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8). However, concentrations of some constituents, such as total suspended solids (Chapter 3) and organic carbon (Chapter 5), increase during the spring snowmelt flush. The upper basin, which consists of alpine, subalpine, montane, and foothills regions west of the mouth of Boulder Canyon, is underlain by Precambrian igneous and metamorphic rocks (Chapter 1). Major dissolved inorganic constituents in headwater sites were found to be enriched by factors of 10 to 20 relative to precipitation; this is consistent with minor weathering of the local crystalline bedrock (Chapter 4). Some anthropogenic input is observed in the headwaters; precipitation introduces nitrogen derived from fossil fuel combustion and agricultural activities (Chapter 8). The lower basin, which consists of the plains region east of the mouth of Boulder Canyon, is underlain by Mesozoic sedimentary rock and Quaternary alluvium, and has substantially more anthropogenic sources. Concentrations of most dissolved inorganic constituents increased in the lower basin. Differentiation between natural and anthropogenic sources of some dissolved constituents is difficult because both sources contribute to the water composition in this region. The increase of most major constituents (bicarbonate, calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate) is consistent with weathering of the underlying sedimentary bedrock (Chapter 4). It is likely that anthropogenic loading of constituents in this reach occurs during storm events. Fecal coliform concentrations were variable and in some cases exceeded state standards, primarily during low-flow conditions (Chapter 3). Effluent from Boulder’s 75th Street Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) has a substantial impact on the water chemistry of lower Boulder Creek. The WWTP increases the concentrations of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus (Chapter 3), major ions and trace metals (Chapter 4), and organic carbon (Chapter 5) in Boulder Creek. The effluent contained a spike in gadolinium, a rare earth element that is ingested for magnetic resonance imaging as a contrasting agent and then excreted to the urban wastewater system. The effluent also contained trace organic compounds such as surfactants, pharmaceuticals, hormones (Chapter 5), and pesticides (Chapter 6), which also were detected at downstream Boulder Creek sites. Water chemistry of Boulder Creek downstream of the WWTP is largely controlled by the degree of dilution of the wastewater effluent, which varies depending on the baseflow of Boulder Creek, the volume of wastewater effluent, and depletion by agricultural diversions. Coal Creek, a tributary of Boulder Creek, contains wastewater effluent from four additional WWTPs, and increases the load of many constituents in Boulder Creek. In addition to the impact from wastewater effluent, lower Boulder Creek is affected by agricultural land use. Eleven of 84 analyzed pesticides were detected in Boulder Creek or its inflows, primarily in the eastern section of the watershed (Chapter 6). This collaborative study provides an in-depth evaluation of the hydrology, water chemistry, and sediment mineralogy of North Boulder Creek, Middle Boulder Creek, Boulder Creek, and major inflows. The detailed sampling and analysis in this report provide a baseline for future reference, as well as information on the effect of land use and geology on water chemistry.

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Sources and characteristics of dissolved organic carbon in the McKenzie River, Oregon, related to the formation of disinfection by-products in treated drinking water

Executive Summary This study characterized the concentration and quality of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the McKenzie River, a relatively undeveloped watershed in western Oregon, and its link to forming disinfection by-products (DBPs) in treated drinking water. The study aimed to identify the primary source(s) of DOC in source water for the Eugene Water & Electric Board’s (EWEB) conventional treatment plant on the McKenzie River near river mile 11, upstream of Hayden Bridge. The two classes of regulated compounds examined—trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs)—form when organic carbon in raw source water reacts with chlorine and (or) bromine during water treatment. The objectives of the study were to: characterize the amount and quality of DOC in the McKenzie River and select tributaries during storms; identify the most common types of carbon using UV-vis spectroscopy and other methods; evaluate optical properties for predicting DBP precursors in surface water; and identify land cover classes or vegetation types that may be important sources of organic carbon and DBP precursors in EWEB’s source water. Eleven storms were sampled synoptically in upstream-to-downstream fashion to provide a “snapshot” of water quality conditions at four sites on the McKenzie River from Frissell Bridge (6 miles downstream from Trail Bridge Reservoir) to the EWEB water treatment plant at Hayden Bridge and nine contributing tributaries. Storms included late summer and early autumn “first flush” events and late autumn, winter, and spring storms spanning a range in streamflows from 3,000 to 26,000 cubic feet per second as measured in the main stem McKenzie River at the EWEB water intake. Water samples were analyzed for DOC concentrations and optical properties (fluorescence and ultraviolet absorbance [UVA]) across a range of wavelengths to characterize the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the McKenzie River at the drinking water intake and upstream locations. Paired sets of source and finished water samples were collected at the EWEB treatment plant to identify DOC quality parameters in raw source water that might predict DBP concentrations in finished drinking water. DOC concentrations were relatively low in the McKenzie River (0.4–3 milligrams per liter [mg/L]; average 1.5 mg/L) but much higher in the tributaries. The highest DOC concentrations occurred during “first flush” storms in October 2012 and September 2013; the highest value (16 mg/L) was measured at the 52nd Street stormwater outfall. The average DOC concentration in the lower basin-tributaries was 3.8 mg/L; three middle basin tributaries—Quartz, Gate, and Haagen Creeks, which drain private forestland with less coniferous forest compared with other higher elevation tributaries— had slightly lower average DOC concentrations (2.8 mg/L). These middle-basin watersheds may be important sources of DOC and DBP precursors to the McKenzie River, even more so than the lower basin tributaries, depending on their flows (and loads). This is particularly true after the September 2020 Holiday Farm fire, which burned much of this area. DOC concentrations increased 68 percent in the McKenzie River between the uppermost reference site at Frissell Bridge and Vida; this includes drainage from Quartz Creek, Blue River Lake and Cougar Reservoir, which all contributed DOC to the main stem. In contrast, the lowermost tributaries draining most of the agricultural and urban land did not have a large effect on DOC in the McKenzie River despite their higher DOC concentrations because of their presumed relatively low streamflows and, consequently, DOC loads. Apart from the continuous flow monitors in the McKenzie River and some tributaries (Blue River and South Fork McKenzie River, and streamflow at Hayden Bridge and Vida, Camp Creek and some other locations), streamflow was not assessed during sample collection for this study. This lack of streamflow data precludes a detailed analysis of loads, which is discussed in the future studies section. All DBP concentrations in finished drinking water were less than EPA maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) of 0.080 mg/L for the four trihalomethanes (THM4) and 0.060 mg/L for five haloacetic acids (HAA5). During the 11 storm sampling events the maximum summed concentrations were about 0.040 mg/L for both THM4 and HAA5. Compliance monitoring samples, collected separately by EWEB, yielded some higher concentrations—0.046 mg/L THM4 and 0.047 HAA5—during the December 2012 storm. The corresponding benchmark quotient (BQ) values, which indicate how close a measured DBP concentration is to the MCL, were 0.58 and 0.78, respectively, for THM4 and HAA5. Compared with a similar 2007–08 McKenzie River study that did not target storm events, concentrations of THM4 and HAA5 in finished water were 68 percent and 33 percent higher, respectively, during the current study. Due to the high dilution rates in the McKenzie River main stem, many of the individual fluorescence excitation-emission measurements were low (<0.1 Raman units) and approached analytical detection limits. Parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) resulted in a five-component model (C1–C5) that represents five unique organic fluorophores. Components C1, C2, and C3 represent DOM associated with soil-derived, humic-like, more degraded organic matter. In contrast, components C4 and C5 represent “fresher” DOM, derived from terrestrial and aquatic plants, including algae and cyanobacteria that are common in the McKenzie River and its tributaries and reservoirs. The fluorescence data and PARAFAC modeling suggest that most of the DOC in the McKenzie River originated from terrestrial sources (primarily components C1 and C2). The largest increases in DOC in the main stem occurred in the reach upstream of Vida, from inflows by Quartz Creek, Blue River, South Fork McKenzie River, and other tributaries. Concentrations of DBPs in EWEB’s finished drinking water were positively correlated with DOC concentrations in raw source water (THM4, p <0.05; HAA5, p <0.01) for paired samples collected 12−24 hours apart. DOC concentrations were significantly positively correlated ( p <0.001) with laboratory-based fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) measurements, suggesting fDOM as a useful parameter for monitoring and predicting DOC concentration in surface water and DBP concentrations in finished water. Of all the PARAFAC components in surface water, C5 had the highest correlations with DBPs in finished water (rho = 0.77–0.84, p <0.01), followed by components C1 and C2 (rho = 0.75 and 0.71, respectively, p <0.01). This C5 carbon is associated with recently produced DOM, possibly from decomposed terrestrial and aquatic vegetation. Model loadings of these three components were considerably higher in the sampled tributaries relative to the main stem McKenzie River, with most of the observed increases in the main stem apparent at Vida. This points to Quartz Creek or other tributaries in the reach between Frissell Bridge and the sampling site near Vida (South Fork McKenzie and Blue Rivers) as potentially key contributors of DOM source material that leads to the production of DBPs in treated drinking water. A limited load analysis showed that the reservoirs contributed 8–37 percent of the instantaneous DOC loads observed at Vida at the time of sampling, which suggests other sources such as Quartz Creek and other streams in the reach between Frissell Bridge and Vida are more important. Random forest analyses identified PARAFAC components C1 and C5 and fluorescence peaks A, C, M, T and N as the best predictors for HAA5 concentrations in finished drinking water, explaining 62.5 percent of the variation. The best predictors for THM4 were C1, C4 + C5, and peaks T, A, and N, which explained 33 percent of the variation. Several land cover and vegetation classes were correlated with DOC concentration and other optical measurements. The percentage of evergreen forest in each of the subwatersheds sampled was negatively correlated ( p <0.001) with DOC concentration and many optical indicators of DOM quantity: UVA 254 , fDOM, and all of the fluorescence peaks. In contrast, mixed (deciduous) forest was positively correlated ( p <0.001) with DOC, fDOM, UVA 254 , and several fluorescence peaks, demonstrating the importance of deciduous leaf fall in generating DOC and DBP precursors. The high level of human activities in the middle and lower portion of the basin—including timber harvesting and road construction on private forestland, agricultural, rural, industrial, and urban development—have resulted in the greatest loss in native coniferous and mixed deciduous forests in the basin. DOC loading from these tributaries and reservoir releases, which contain DOC from terrestrial and aquatic productivity, both enrich the McKenzie River. Concentrations of DOC increased an average of 71 percent (range 30–120 percent) in the McKenzie River between Frissell Bridge, the upstream reference site, and Vida. PARAFAC components C1, C2, and C5—which were correlated with DBPs in finished water—increased, on average, 109–136 percent (range 20–250 percent) in this same Frissell-to-Vida reach. These increases occur from input of tributaries in the middle basin such as Quartz Creek and others, as noted above. Future monitoring, field, and lab studies can improve our understanding of seasonal and spatial sources of organic carbon contributing DBP precursors to the McKenzie River and allow detection of long-term trends resulting from the recent Holiday Farm Fire, which burned 173,393 acres of forestland, including riparian areas along the main stem, and numerous structures, homes, and outbuildings in September 2020. Future studies could examine DOC fluxes and flushing of carbon from the watershed, investigate the role of precipitation amount and intensity in mobilizing carbon and sediment, and evaluate impacts to aquatic communities and human health as part of a post-fire assessment. Other areas ripe for study include evaluating the impacts of potential temperature increases on carbon sequestration and decomposition in the burned and unburned forests and identifying practices that foster sequestration of carbon in forest soils. The use of fluorescence sensors such as fDOM to monitor the concentration and composition of raw water supplies may be improved for detection of specific DBP precursors, to provide continuous and real-time information to treatment plant operators. Future studies that monitor DOM amount and quality, and DBP Formation Potential (FP), particularly during storm events, paired with streamflow measurements, as suggested above, could help identify areas that contribute high DOC loads and thus help managers identify the key areas to focus restoration activities. Other studies could examine treatment options for currently regulated DBPs and potentially unregulated compounds, including advanced biological treatments for their removal. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and EWEB in Eugene, Oregon, with additional funding provided from USGS Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

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