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USGS2002

A statistical evaluation of non-ergodic variogram estimators

Geostatistics is a set of statistical techniques that is increasingly used to characterize spatial dependence in spatially referenced ecological data. A common feature of geostatistics is predicting values at unsampled locations from nearby samples using the kriging algorithm. Modeling spatial dependence in sampled data is necessary before kriging and is usually accomplished with the variogram and its traditional estimator. Other types of estimators, known as non-ergodic estimators, have been used in ecological applications. Non-ergodic estimators were originally suggested as a method of choice when sampled data are preferentially located and exhibit a skewed frequency distribution. Preferentially located samples can occur, for example, when areas with high values are sampled more intensely than other areas. In earlier studies the visual appearance of variograms from traditional and non-ergodic estimators were compared. Here we evaluate the estimators' relative performance in prediction. We also show algebraically that a non-ergodic version of the variogram is equivalent to the traditional variogram estimator. Simulations, designed to investigate the effects of data skewness and preferential sampling on variogram estimation and kriging, showed the traditional variogram estimator outperforms the non-ergodic estimators under these conditions. We also analyzed data on carabid beetle abundance, which exhibited large-scale spatial variability (trend) and a skewed frequency distribution. Detrending data followed by robust estimation of the residual variogram is demonstrated to be a successful alternative to the non-ergodic approach.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗

USGS2013

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g −1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

California↗

USGS2013

Using landscape epidemiological models to understand the distribution of chronic wasting disease in the Midwestern USA

Animal movement across the landscape plays a critical role in the ecology of infectious wildlife diseases. Dispersing animals can spread pathogens between infected areas and naïve populations. While tracking free-ranging animals over the geographic scales relevant to landscape-level disease management is challenging, landscape features that influence gene flow among wildlife populations may also influence the contact rates and disease spread between populations. We used spatial diffusion and barriers to white-tailed deer gene flow, identified through landscape genetics, to model the distribution of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the infected region of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, USA. Our generalized linear model showed that risk of CWD infection declined exponentially with distance from current outbreaks, and inclusion of gene flow barriers dramatically improved fit and predictive power of the model. Our results indicate that CWD is spreading across the Midwestern landscape from these two endemic foci, but spread is strongly influenced by highways and rivers that also reduce deer gene flow. We used our model to plot a risk map, providing important information for CWD management by identifying likely routes of disease spread and providing a tool for prioritizing disease monitoring and containment efforts. The current analysis may serve as a framework for modeling future disease risk drawing on genetic information to investigate barriers to spread and extending management and monitoring beyond currently affected regions.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2018

A method to detect discontinuities in census data

The distribution of pattern across scales has predictive power in the analysis of complex systems. Discontinuity approaches remain a fruitful avenue of research in the quest for quantitative measures of resilience because discontinuity analysis provides an objective means of identifying scales in complex systems and facilitates delineation of hierarchical patterns in processes, structure, and resources. However, current discontinuity methods have been considered too subjective, too complicated and opaque, or have become computationally obsolete; given the ubiquity of discontinuities in ecological and other complex systems, a simple and transparent method for detection is needed. In this study, we present a method to detect discontinuities in census data based on resampling of a neutral model and provide the R code used to run the analyses. This method has the potential for advancing basic and applied ecological research.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

Integrating growth and survival models for flexible estimation of size-dependent survival in a cryptic, endangered snake

Estimates of demographic rates for animal populations and individuals have many applications for ecological and conservation research. In many animals, survival is size-dependent, but estimating the form of the size–survival relationship presents challenges. For elusive species with low recapture rates, individuals’ size will be unknown at many points in time. Integrating growth and capture–mark–recapture models in a Bayesian framework empowers researchers to impute missing size data, with uncertainty, and include size as a covariate of survival, capture probability, and presence on-site. If there is no theoretical expectation for the shape of the size–survival relationship, spline functions can allow for fitting flexible, data-driven estimates. We use long-term capture–mark–recapture data from the endangered San Francisco gartersnake ( Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia ) to fit an integrated growth–survival model. Growth models showed that females reach longer asymptotic lengths than males and that the magnitude of sexual size dimorphism differed among populations. The capture probability and availability of San Francisco gartersnakes for capture increased with snout–vent length. The survival rate of female snakes exhibits a nonlinear relationship with snout–vent length (SVL), with survival flat between 300 mm and 550 mm SVL before decreasing for females between 550 mm and 700 mm SVL. For male snakes, survival decreased for adult males >550 mm SVL. The survival rates of the smallest and largest San Francisco gartersnakes were highly uncertain because recapture rates were very low for these sizes. By integrating growth and survival models and using penalized splines, we found support for size-dependent survival in San Francisco gartersnakes. Our results have applications for devising management activities for this endangered subspecies, and our methods could be applied broadly to the study of size-dependent demography among animals.

California↗

USGS2023

Cruise Report for NOAA Ship Nancy Foster Cruise NF-22-06

Between 9 August and 1 September, 2022, the Mesophotic and Deep Benthic (MDBC) Habitat Assessment and Evaluation (HAE) and Mapping, Ground-truthing, and Predictive Habitat Modeling (MGM) projects implemented remotely operated vehicle (ROV) dives, multibeam surveys, and conductivity, temperature, depth (CTD) operations at deep-sea sites in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The primary sites selected are a region of known deep-sea coral habitats, including Deepwater Horizon (DWH) injured and reference sites at depths of 1,100–2,000 m. The cruise includes objectives from MGM and HAE projects. Habitat characterization and analysis of biological samples collected with ROV Odysseus maintain long-term data flows and fill critical data gaps on the biology and ecology at impacted and reference sites, assess potential ongoing impacts from threats, refine predictive habitat models, help target locations for direct restoration and protection, and determine a baseline for health and condition. Multibeam echosounder data can help document the broadscale abundance and distribution of MDBC, characterize benthic habitats, and provide information that can help guide future ROV surveys.

DWH MDBC Cruise Report↗

USGS2017

Oxygen stable isotopic disparities among sympatric small land snail species from northwest Minnesota, USA

The oxygen isotopic composition (δ 18 O) of land snail shells can be a valuable paleoenvironmental archive if the climatic parameters that influence the isotopic system are fully understood. Previous calibration studies have examined a limited number of species or individuals, and most have focused on larger (> 10 mm) taxa, which do not represent the dominant shell material in the Quaternary fossil record. In this study, we evaluate the δ 18 O values of small land snails (< 10 mm), which are common in modern settings and are often preserved in a wide array of Quaternary geologic and archeologic deposits. Our primary goal was to determine if coexisting species record equivalent isotopic information in their shells, regardless of differences in their ecology, dietary habits, behavior, and/or body size. We collected and analyzed 265 individuals of 11 species from 12 sites in northwest Minnesota (USA), which exhibits extremely abundant and diverse terrestrial malacofauna in North America. We did not observe significant correlations between shell δ 18 O values and the type of ecosystem (forest/grassland) or hydrologic setting (upland/lowland). However, the majority of species differed significantly in shell δ 18 O values. Larger taxa ( Catinella , Succinea , Discus ) consistently yielded higher δ 18 O values than smaller taxa ( Euconulus , Gastrocopta , Hawaiia , Vallonia ), by up to ~ 3‰. These isotopic offsets among sympatric taxa could be attributed to a number of physical, behavioral, and/or evolutionary traits, including the ability of larger species to tolerate drier conditions better than their smaller counterparts, differences in their preferred microhabitats or phylogentic non-independence. Regardless of the reason, our results imply that researchers should not combine isotopic data from different types of land snails without first investigating modern specimens to determine if it is appropriate. Moreover, our data suggest that combining instrumental climate data, a snail flux-balance model, and shell δ 18 O values can help us to better understand the ecology of land snails.

Minnesota↗

USGS2016

Roost site selection by ring-billed and herring gulls

Gulls ( Larus spp.) commonly roost in large numbers on inland and coastal waters, yet there is little information on how or where gulls choose sites for roosting. Roost site selection can lead to water quality degradation or aviation hazards when roosts are formed on water supply reservoirs or are close to airports. Harassment programs are frequently initiated to move or relocate roosting gulls but often have mixed results because gulls are reluctant to leave or keep returning. As such, knowledge of gull roost site selection and roosting ecology has applied and ecological importance. We used satellite telemetry and an information-theoretic approach to model seasonal roost selection of ring-billed ( L. delawarensis ) and herring gulls ( L. argentatus ) in Massachusetts, USA. Our results indicated that ring-billed gulls preferred freshwater roosts and will use a variety of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Herring gulls regularly roosted on fresh water but used salt water roosts more often than ring-billed gulls and also roosted on a variety of land habitats. Roost modeling showed that herring and ring-billed gulls selected inland fresh water roosts based on size of the water body and proximity to their last daytime location; they selected the largest roost closest to where they ended the day. Management strategies to reduce or eliminate roosting gulls could identify and try to eliminate other habitat variables (e.g., close-by foraging sites) that are attracting gulls before attempting to relocate or redistribute (e.g., through hazing programs) roosting birds.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2014

An evaluation of the relations between flow regime components, stream characteristics, species traits and meta-demographic rates of warmwater stream fishes: Implications for aquatic resource management

Fishery biologists are increasingly recognizing the importance of considering the dynamic nature of streams when developing streamflow policies. Such approaches require information on how flow regimes influence the physical environment and how those factors, in turn, affect species-specific demographic rates. A more cost-effective alternative could be the use of dynamic occupancy models to predict how species are likely to respond to changes in flow. To appraise the efficacy of this approach, we evaluated relative support for hypothesized effects of seasonal streamflow components, stream channel characteristics, and fish species traits on local extinction, colonization, and recruitment (meta-demographic rates) of stream fishes. We used 4 years of seasonal fish collection data from 23 streams to fit multistate, multiseason occupancy models for 42 fish species in the lower Flint River Basin, Georgia. Modelling results suggested that meta-demographic rates were influenced by streamflows, particularly short-term (10-day) flows. Flow effects on meta-demographic rates also varied with stream size, channel morphology, and fish species traits. Small-bodied species with generalized life-history characteristics were more resilient to flow variability than large-bodied species with specialized life-history characteristics. Using this approach, we simplified the modelling framework, thereby facilitating the development of dynamic, spatially explicit evaluations of the ecological consequences of water resource development activities over broad geographic areas. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Georgia↗

USGS2012

Adaptive strategies and life history characteristics in a warming climate: salmon in the Arctic?

In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada’s Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960’s. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada’s Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2021

Using systems thinking to inform management of imperiled species: A case study with sea turtles

Management of imperiled species facing spatiotemporally dynamic threats is difficult. Systems thinking can inform their management by quantifying the impacts that they face. We apply systems thinking to the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGM) loggerhead ( Caretta caretta ) Recovery Unit (RU), one of the smallest subpopulations of loggerheads nesting in the USA. We characterized disturbances to nests, management actions, and hatchling production across 12 nesting beaches used by this RU to explore how hatchling production would increase if disturbances were mitigated. Annual hatchling production at sites ranged from 470 to 18,191 hatchlings/year. Washovers (19.3% nests/year), washouts (17.9% nests/year), and predation (13% nests/year) were the most common annual disturbances across sites. Focusing on the most impactful disturbances at just five sites could increase annual NGM RU hatchling production by 2.2–6.7%. Efforts to mitigate washovers and washouts are ongoing in Alabama, but these may be futile against tropical cyclones, which accounted for >80% of washouts in the present study, and further require careful examination of associated adverse side-effects. Efforts to mitigate predation are common throughout this RU, but require improved knowledge of predator ecology to reach full potential. Systems thinking allowed us to create a simple model for assessing disturbances and management strategies in terms of hatchling sea turtles. This model can be augmented to run dynamic simulations of how disturbances and management actions impact hatchling production, and can be applied to other species with similar reproductive strategies.

Alabama, Florida↗

USGS2022

Exposure to 17α-ethinylestradiol results in differential susceptibility of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) to bacterial infection

Disease outbreaks, skin lesions, mortality events, and reproductive abnormalities have been observed in wild populations of centrarchids. The presence of estrogenic endocrine disrupting compounds (EEDCs) has been implicated as a potential causal factor for these effects. The effects of prior EEDC exposure on immune response were examined in juvenile largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) exposed to a potent synthetic estrogen (17α-ethinylestradiol, EE2) at a low (EE2 Low , 0.87 ng/L) or high (EE2 High , 9.08 ng/L) dose for 4 weeks, followed by transfer to clean water and injection with an LD 40 dose of the Gram-negative bacteria Edwardsiella piscicida . Unexpectedly, this prior exposure to EE2 High significantly increased survivorship at 10 d post-infection compared to solvent control or EE2 Low -exposed, infected fish. Both prior exposure and infection with E. piscicida led to significantly reduced hepatic glycogen levels, indicating a stress response resulting in depletion of energy stores. Additionally, pathway analysis for liver and spleen indicated differentially expressed genes associated with immunometabolic processes in the mock-injected EE2 High treatment that could underlie the observed protective effect and metabolic shift in EE2 High -infected fish. Our results demonstrate that exposure to a model EEDC alters metabolism and immune function in a fish species that is ecologically and economically important in North America.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2010

How vegetation and sediment transport feedbacks drive landscape change in the Everglades and wetlands worldwide

Mechanisms reported to promote landscape self‐organization cannot explain vegetation patterning oriented parallel to flow. Recent catastrophic shifts in Everglades landscape pattern and ecological function highlight the need to understand the feedbacks governing these ecosystems. We modeled feedback between vegetation, hydrology, and sediment transport on the basis of a decade of experimentation. Results from more than 100 simulations showed that flows just sufficient to redistribute sediment from sparsely vegetated sloughs to dense ridges were needed for an equilibrium patterned landscape oriented parallel to flow. Surprisingly, although vegetation heterogeneity typically conveys resilience, in wetlands governed by flow/sediment feedbacks it indicates metastability, whereby the landscape is prone to catastrophic shifts. Substantial increases or decreases in flow relative to the equilibrium condition caused an expansion of emergent vegetation and loss of open‐water areas that was unlikely to revert upon restoration of the equilibrium hydrology. Understanding these feedbacks is critical in forecasting wetland responses to changing conditions and designing management strategies that optimize ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration or habitat provision. Our model and new sensitivity analysis techniques address these issues and make it newly apparent that simply returning flow to predrainage conditions in the Everglades may not be sufficient to restore historic landscape patterns and processes.

American Naturalist↗

USGS2023

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load was established for the water quality and ecological restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In 2017, the latest science, data, and modeling tools were used to develop revised Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). In this article, we examine the vulnerability of the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the combined pressures of climate change and growth in population, agricultural intensity, and economic activity for the 60-year period 1995–2055. The results will be used to revise WIPs, as needed, to account for expected increases in loads. Assessing changes relative to 1995 for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055, mean annual precipitation increases of 3.11%, 4.21%, 5.34%, and 6.91%, respectively, air temperature increases of 1.12, 1.45, 1.84, and 2.12°C, respectively, and potential evapotranspiration increases of 3.36%, 4.43%, 5.54%, and 6.35%, respectively, are projected. Population in the watershed is expected to grow by 3.5 million between 2025 and 2055. Watershed model results show incremental increases in streamflow (2.3%–6.2%), nitrogen (2.6%–10.8%), phosphorus (4.5%–26.7%), and sediment (3.8%–18.8%) loads to the tidal Bay due to climate change. Growth in population, agricultural intensity, development, and economic activity resulted in relatively smaller increases in loads compared to climate change.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2016

Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost—A review

Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flowpaths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

USGS2005

Grass buffers for playas in agricultural landscapes: A literature synthesis

We summarize current knowledge about grass buffers for protecting small, isolated wetlands in agricultural contexts, including information relevant to protecting playas from runoff containing sediments, nutrients, pesticides, and other contaminants, and information on how buffers may affect densities and productivity of grassland birds. Land-uses surrounding the approximately 60,000 playas within the Playa Lakes Region (PLR), including intensive agriculture, feedlots, and oil extraction, can contribute to severe degradation of playas. Farming and grazing can lead to significant sedimentation in nearby playas, eliminating their ability to hold water, support the region’s biodiversity, or adequately recharge aquifers. Contaminants further degrade habitats and threaten the water quality of underlying aquifers, including the Ogallala Aquifer. Grass buffers hold promise as a management tool to reduce the amount of sediments and contaminants from agricultural runoff that enters playas. Effective buffer width is determined by acceptable sediment-reduction levels, potential water flow and velocity, landscape and soil variables, buffer species, and vegetation structure. Various models have been developed to predict buffer effectiveness; however, most of these models, including those provided by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), remain unvalidated. The majority of buffer-effectiveness literature is based on simulated conditions in experimental trays or plots; no published studies of buffer design or effectiveness specifically address playas. Nonetheless, some general patterns have emerged regarding buffer design/effectiveness. Buffers 10–60 m wide are generally considered adequate for trapping most sediments, although in some cases buffers need to be >200 m. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Partners for Wildlife Program in the Southern High Plains recommend a buffer width of ~33 m planted with a diverse mix of native shortgrasses and mixed grasses as a starting point. Most dissolved contaminants, however, are removed from runoff only when they infiltrate the soil, where microbes or other processes can break down or sequester contaminants. Promoting runoff infiltration requires wider buffers with denser stem densities than those required for filtering sediments, which may result in hydrological changes in playas. Ultimately, the balance between runoff and infiltration determines whether or not water eventually reaches a given basin. Long-term buffer effectiveness requires regular maintenance, including excavation to remove overburdens of sediments, repairing vegetation damage, and removing over-mature vegetation or invasions of noxious weeds. Buffers may not be enough to protect playas; best management practices (BMPs; e.g., conservation tillage, contour tilling, and mulching herbicides into soil after application) that diminish soil erosion and contaminant runoff also may be necessary. Nutrient loads in runoff can be minimized by balancing nutrient input with nutrient requirements for livestock and crops. Pesticide application practices also require careful evaluation. Mowing or grazing rather than use of herbicides offer alternatives for suppressing invasive or undesirable plant species in buffers. Future research should entail multiple-scale approaches at regional, wetland-complex, and individual watershed scales. Information needs include direct measures of buffer effectiveness in ‘real-world’ systems, refinement and field tests of buffer-effectiveness models, how buffers may affect floral and faunal communities of playas, and basic ecological information on playa function and playa wildlife ecology. Understanding how wildlife communities respond to patch size and habitat fragmentation is crucial for addressing questions regarding habitat quality of grass buffers in playa systems.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2007

Selected field parameters from streams and preliminary analytical data from water and macroinvertebrate samples, Central Colorado Assessment Project, task, 2004 and 2005

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Central Colorado Assessment Project (CCAP) began in October 2003 and is planned to last through September 2008. One major goal of this project is to compare the relationships between surface-water chemistry and aquatic fauna in mined and unmined areas. To accomplish this goal, we are conducting a State-scale reconnaissance sampling program, in which we are collecting water and macroinvertebrate samples. Selected results from the first two years of project analyses are reported here. We plan to develop statistical models and use geographic information system (GIS) technology to quantify the relationships between ecological indicators of metal contamination in Rocky Mountain streams and water quality, landscape and land-use characteristics (for example, mine density, geology, geomorphology, vegetation, topography). Our research will test the hypothesis that physicochemical variables and ecological responses to metal concentrations in stream water in Rocky Mountain streams are ultimately determined largely by historical land uses.

Colorado↗

USGS2016

Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris )

This report provides supporting details and evidence for the rationale, validity and efficacy of a new mark-recapture model, the Barker Robust Design, to estimate regional manatee survival rates used to parameterize several components of the 2012 version of the Manatee Core Biological Model (CBM) and Threats Analysis (TA). The CBM and TA provide scientific analyses on population viability of the Florida manatee subspecies ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s 5-year reviews of the status of the species as listed under the Endangered Species Act. The model evaluation is presented in a standardized reporting framework, modified from the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaluation) protocol first introduced for environmental threat analyses. We identify this new protocol as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL and this model evaluation specifically as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL, Barker RD version 1. The longer-term objectives of the manatee standard reporting format are to (1) communicate to resource managers consistent evaluation information over sequential modeling efforts; (2) build understanding and expertise on the structure and function of the models; (3) document changes in model structures and applications in response to evolving management objectives, new biological and ecological knowledge, and new statistical advances; and (4) provide greater transparency for management and research review.

Open-File Report↗