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At least 1,261 records · Page 70Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Global genetic diversity status and trends: Towards a suite of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for genetic composition

Biodiversity underlies ecosystem resilience, ecosystem function, sustainable economies, and human well-being. Understanding how biodiversity sustains ecosystems under anthropogenic stressors and global environmental change will require new ways of deriving and applying biodiversity data. A major challenge is that biodiversity data and knowledge are scattered, biased, collected with numerous methods, and stored in inconsistent ways. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has developed the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as fundamental metrics to help aggregate, harmonize, and interpret biodiversity observation data from diverse sources. Mapping and analyzing EBVs can help to evaluate how aspects of biodiversity are distributed geographically and how they change over time. EBVs are also intended to serve as inputs and validation to forecast the status and trends of biodiversity, and to support policy and decision making. Here, we assess the feasibility of implementing Genetic Composition EBVs (Genetic EBVs), which are metrics of within-species genetic variation. We review and bring together numerous areas of the field of genetics and evaluate how each contributes to global and regional genetic biodiversity monitoring with respect to theory, sampling logistics, metadata, archiving, data aggregation, modeling, and technological advances. We propose four Genetic EBVs: ( i ) Genetic Diversity; ( ii ) Genetic Differentiation; ( iii ) Inbreeding; and ( iv ) Effective Population Size ( N e ). We rank Genetic EBVs according to their relevance, sensitivity to change, generalizability, scalability, feasibility and data availability. We outline the workflow for generating genetic data underlying the Genetic EBVs, and review advances and needs in archiving genetic composition data and metadata. We discuss how Genetic EBVs can be operationalized by visualizing EBVs in space and time across species and by forecasting Genetic EBVs beyond current observations using various modeling approaches. Our review then explores challenges of aggregation, standardization, and costs of operationalizing the Genetic EBVs, as well as future directions and opportunities to maximize their uptake globally in research and policy. The collection, annotation, and availability of genetic data has made major advances in the past decade, each of which contributes to the practical and standardized framework for large-scale genetic observation reporting. Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technology present new opportunities, but also challenges for operationalizing Genetic EBVs for biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally. With these advances, genetic composition monitoring is starting to be integrated into global conservation policy, which can help support the foundation of all biodiversity and species' long-term persistence in the face of environmental change. We conclude with a summary of concrete steps for researchers and policy makers for advancing operationalization of Genetic EBVs. The technical and analytical foundations of Genetic EBVs are well developed, and conservation practitioners should anticipate their increasing application as efforts emerge to scale up genetic biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2014

Changing climate and the altitudinal range of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands: an ongoing conservation crisis on the island of Kaua'i

Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum. Potential consequences of global warming on this system have been recognized for over a decade with concerns that increases in mean temperatures could lead to expansion of malaria into habitats where cool temperatures currently limit transmission to highly susceptible endemic forest birds. Recent declines in two endangered species on the island of Kaua'i, the ‘Akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) and ‘Akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris), and retreat of more common native honeycreepers to the last remaining high elevation habitat on the Alaka'i Plateau suggest that predicted changes in disease transmission may be occurring. We compared prevalence of malarial infections in forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Plateau during 1994–1997 and again during 2007–2013, and also evaluated changes in the occurrence of mosquito larvae in available aquatic habitats during the same time periods. Prevalence of infection increased significantly at the lower (1100 m, 10.3% to 28.2%), middle (1250 m, 8.4% to 12.2%), and upper ends of the Plateau (1350 m, 2.0% to 19.3%). A concurrent increase in detections of Culex larvae in aquatic habitats associated with stream margins indicates that populations of the vector are also increasing. These increases are at least in part due to local transmission because overall prevalence in Kaua'i ‘Elepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), a sedentary native species, has increased from 17.2% to 27.0%. Increasing mean air temperatures, declining precipitation, and changes in streamflow that have taken place over the past 20 years are creating environmental conditions throughout major portions of the Alaka'i Plateau that support increased transmission of avian malaria.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2009

The ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA): A new framework for developing regional environmental flow standards

The flow regime is a primary determinant of the structure and function of aquatic and riparian ecosystems for streams and rivers. Hydrologic alteration has impaired riverine ecosystems on a global scale, and the pace and intensity of human development greatly exceeds the ability of scientists to assess the effects on a river-by-river basis. Current scientific understanding of hydrologic controls on riverine ecosystems and experience gained from individual river studies support development of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. 2. This paper presents a consensus view from a group of international scientists on a new framework for assessing environmental flow needs for many streams and rivers simultaneously to foster development and implementation of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. This framework, the ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA), is a synthesis of a number of existing hydrologic techniques and environmental flow methods that are currently being used to various degrees and that can support comprehensive regional flow management. The flexible approach allows scientists, water-resource managers and stakeholders to analyse and synthesise available scientific information into ecologically based and socially acceptable goals and standards for management of environmental flows. 3. The ELOHA framework includes the synthesis of existing hydrologic and ecological databases from many rivers within a user-defined region to develop scientifically defensible and empirically testable relationships between flow alteration and ecological responses. These relationships serve as the basis for the societally driven process of developing regional flow standards. This is to be achieved by first using hydrologic modelling to build a 'hydrologic foundation' of baseline and current hydrographs for stream and river segments throughout the region. Second, using a set of ecologically relevant flow variables, river segments within the region are classified into a few distinctive flow regime types that are expected to have different ecological characteristics. These river types can be further subclassified according to important geomorphic features that define hydraulic habitat features. Third, the deviation of current-condition flows from baseline-condition flow is determined. Fourth, flow alteration-ecological response relationships are developed for each river type, based on a combination of existing hydroecological literature, expert knowledge and field studies across gradients of hydrologic alteration. 4. Scientific uncertainty will exist in the flow alteration-ecological response relationships, in part because of the confounding of hydrologic alteration with other important environmental determinants of river ecosystem condition (e.g. temperature). Application of the ELOHA framework should therefore occur in a consensus context where stakeholders and decision-makers explicitly evaluate acceptable risk as a balance between the perceived value of the ecological goals, the economic costs involved and the scientific uncertainties in functional relationships between ecological responses and flow alteration. 5. The ELOHA framework also should proceed in an adaptive management context, where collection of monitoring data or targeted field sampling data allows for testing of the proposed flow alteration-ecological response relationships. This empirical validation process allows for a fine-tuning of environmental flow management targets. The ELOHA framework can be used both to guide basic research in hydroecology and to further implementation of more comprehensive environmental flow management of freshwater sustainability on a global scale. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2017

Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes

Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance ( P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2010

Basal Resources in Backwaters of the Colorado River Below Glen Canyon Dam-Effects of Discharge Regimes and Comparison with Mainstem Depositional Environments

Eight species of fish were native to the Colorado River before the closure of Glen Canyon Dam, but only four of these native species are currently present. A variety of factors are responsible for the loss of native fish species and the limited distribution and abundance of those that remain. These factors include cold and constant water temperatures, predation and competition with nonnative fish species, and food limitation. Backwaters are areas of stagnant flow in a return-current channel and are thought to be critical rearing habitat for juvenile native fish. Backwaters can be warmer than the main channel and may support higher rates of food production. Glen Canyon Dam is a peaking hydropower facility and, as a result, has subdaily variation in discharge because of changes in demand for power. Stable daily discharges may improve the quality of nearshore rearing habitats such as backwaters by increasing warming, stabilizing the substrate, and increasing food production. To evaluate whether backwaters have greater available food resources than main-channel habitats, and how resource availability in backwaters is affected by stable flow regimes, we quantified water-column and benthic food resources in backwaters seasonally for 1 year using both standing (organic matter concentration/density; chlorophyll a concentration/density; zooplankton concentration; benthic invertebrate density and biomass) and process measurements (chamber estimates of ecosystem metabolism). We compared backwater resource measurements with comparable data from main-channel habitats, and compared backwater data collected during stable discharge with data collected when there was subdaily variation in discharge. Rates of primary production in backwaters (mean gross primary production of 1.7 g O2/m2/d) and the main channel (mean gross primary production of 2.0 g O2/m2/d) were similar. Benthic organic matter standing stock (presented as ash-free dry mass-AFDM) was seven times higher in backwaters relative to main-channel habitats (median value of 210 g AFDM/m2 versus 27 g AFDM/m2); this likely reflects greater retention of tributary-derived organic matter in backwaters relative to main-channel habitats. Water-column and benthic organic matter were higher during periods of steady discharge relative to periods of fluctuating discharge. However, our steady-discharge data collection was confounded by tributary activity. Flooding tributaries contribute substantial quantities of sediment and organic matter to the Colorado River; there were two large tributary floods during our steady-discharge data collection but none during our fluctuating-discharge data collections. Although only preliminary data on invertebrate biomass are available at this time, invertebrate biomass in backwaters (range 2-27 mg AFDM/m2) appears low relative to previously published data from main-channel habitats (~100 mg AFDM/m2). The rate of water turnover in backwaters may be a master variable that affects both physical (for example, warming) and biological (for example, primary production) processes in backwaters. We used dye tracer studies to estimate turnover rates in backwaters across flow regimes. Turnover took considerably longer when discharge was stable compared to when there was subdaily variation in discharge (613 minutes versus 220 minutes). Our results indicate that backwaters may represent a sink for organic matter that enters from the main channel and that stable discharge, by lengthening water turnover times, will likely increase organic matter retention.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

Constructed value of information with iterative scoring and parametric uncertainty to identify management-relevant research priorities for a declining raptor species

Constructed value of information (CVoI) is an expert elicitation decision-analytic tool used to prioritize sources of uncertainty based on their potential to improve decision outcomes if resolved. Despite increased application of CVoI, the robustness of CVoI prioritization of sources of uncertainty relative to differences in expert elicitation and scoring methods has not been evaluated. We engaged a group of species experts in a decision-analytic process to elicit uncertainties, framed as alternative hypotheses, about current population declines of the American kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) in the United States. Participants scored 13 hypotheses across 3 CVoI criteria, which are defined as constructed scales. Rather than experts selecting a single score per criterion, we used a likelihood point method to incorporate parametric uncertainty in the scoring process, in which experts were given 100 points to distribute across possible score categories within the criterion-specific constructed scale. Experts provided scores over 2 scoring rounds, with an opportunity to review and discuss initial scores between rounds. We used a Shannon entropy calculation to quantify how evenly participants allotted their points. We used simulation to evaluate the robustness of our prioritization results relative to a scoring method in which participants selected a single score category for each criterion. Participants often spread their points across 2 adjacent scores, reflecting parametric uncertainty. For one third of the hypothesis-scoring round combinations, the prioritization results differed in approximately 50% of simulations. The highest scoring hypotheses related to how the use of artificial versus natural nest cavities affects fecundity or survival, whether winter roosting sites are a limiting factor for population growth, and whether gamebird habitat management may benefit kestrel populations. Our CVoI prioritization framework can be used to develop collaborative research that is directly relevant to a management decision and is an advance in eliciting more representative expert beliefs.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2018

Effects of persistent energy-related brine contamination on amphibian abundance in national wildlife refuge wetlands

To inform sustainable energy development, it is important to understand the ecological effects of historical and current production practices and the persistence of those effects. The Williston Basin is one of North America's largest oil production areas and overlaps the Prairie Pothole Region, an area densely populated with wetlands that provide important wildlife habitat. Although historical disposal practices that released chloride-rich waters (brines) produced during oil extraction into the environment are no longer used, brine spills still occur frequently. We sampled 33 wetlands for three amphibian species in Montana and North Dakota during 2015–2017, primarily on National Wildlife Refuges, and used N-mixture models to determine how abundance varied with evidence of brine contamination. To provide insight into effects of historical versus contemporary contamination, we also estimated the association of well density and age with water quality and amphibian abundance. Abundance of boreal chorus frog ( Pseudacris maculata ) larvae declined most rapidly in response to increased chloride (range: 0.04–17,500 mg/L), followed by the northern leopard frog ( Lithobates [ Rana ] pipiens ) and barred tiger salamander ( Ambystoma mavortium ). Water quality and population- and community-level abundance of amphibians were more strongly related to nearby wells (≤800 m) installed before 1982 than to wells installed since 1982. These results suggest historical brine management practices were the primary driver of contamination and reduced amphibian abundance in wetlands we sampled, reflecting multi-decadal ecological effects. These persistent effects also underscore the critical need for tools to restore landscapes affected by brine contamination.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2017

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt ( Taricha torosa ), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

Journal of Theoretical Biology↗
USGS2011

The distributions of one invasive and two native crayfishes in relation to coarse-scale natural and anthropogenic factors

1. Native crayfishes are often extirpated from portions of their range because of interactions with invasive species, anthropogenic alterations to environmental conditions or a combination of these factors. Our goal was to identify coarse-scale natural and anthropogenic factors related to the current distributions of the invasive crayfish, Orconectes hylas , and two endemic crayfishes, Orconectes peruncus and Orconectes quadruncus in the St. Francis River drainage, Missouri, U.S.A. and to provide wider insights into the potential role of anthropogenic factors in facilitating species displacement. 2. We used classification trees to model coarse-scale natural and anthropogenic environmental factors and their relation to the presence or absence of each species. Model results were then used to predict probability of presence for each species within each stream segment throughout the entire St. Francis River drainage. 3. Factors related to geology and soils were the best predictors of species distributions. A dichotomy of these factors explained much of the discrete distributions of the two native species. Agricultural-related factors were identified as the most influential anthropogenic activity related to species distributions. All associations between the invasive species and anthropogenic factors were negative which suggested the invader was not likely to establish in heavily impacted areas. Overall, our models had high correct classification rates, and we were able to reliably predict the presence of the invader in the invaded drainage. 4. Given the negative associations of the invader with anthropogenic alterations at a coarse spatial scale, we believe other mechanisms are likely to be responsible for the widespread displacement of the two native species. These findings can be used to assist in conservation activities such as creation of refugia for native species and may direct future research to identify the mechanism(s) of species displacement.

Missouri↗
USGS2020

Outmigration survival of wild Chinook salmon smolts through the Sacramento River during historic drought and high water conditions

Populations of wild spring-run Chinook salmon in California’s Central Valley, once numbering in the millions, have dramatically declined to record low numbers. Dam construction, habitat degradation, and altered flow regimes have all contributed to depress populations, which currently persist in only a few tributaries to the Sacramento River. Mill Creek (Tehama County) continues to support these threatened fish, and contains some of the most pristine spawning and rearing habitat available in the Central Valley. Despite this pristine habitat, the number of Chinook salmon returning to spawn has declined to record low numbers, likely due to poor outmigration survival rates. From 2013-2017, 334 smolts were captured and acoustic tagged while out-migrating from Mill Creek, allowing for movement and survival rates to be tracked over 250 kilometers through the Sacramento River. During this study California experienced both a historic drought and record rainfall, resulting in dramatic fluctuations in year-to-year river flow and water temperature. Cumulative survival of tagged smolts from Mill Creek through the Sacramento River was 9.5% (±1.6) during the study, with relatively low survival during historic drought conditions in 2015 (4.9% ± 1.6) followed by increased survival during high flows in 2017 (42.3% ± 9.1). Survival in Mill Creek and the Sacramento River was modeled over a range of flow values, which indicated that higher flows in each region result in increased survival rates. Survival estimates gathered in this study can help focus management and restoration actions over a relatively long migration corridor to specific regions of low survival, and provide guidance for management actions in the Sacramento River aimed at restoring populations of threatened Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon.

California↗
USGS2024

Accounting for multiple uncertainties in a decision-support population viability assessment

Conservation and management decisions often must be made on strict timelines, based on the “best available information” regarding a species’ current and expected future status. Simulation models are valuable tools for predicting a species’ future status but must incorporate multiple types of uncertainty in order to provide a complete understanding of plausible outcomes. Here we present a population viability analysis for a data-deficient species proposed for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, the alligator snapping turtle. We used a matrix population model to simulate population trajectories, incorporating both parametric uncertainty and temporal variation into demographic parameters. We used expert elicitation to generate modified survival rates in the presence of specific anthropogenic threats, for which empirical estimates were unavailable. Because uncertainty in the expert elicited values was of particular interest to decision makers, we constructed a set of simulation scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity of model conclusions to the accuracy of expert elicited parameters. Our model predicted steep population declines under all scenarios with anthropogenic threats, indicating that under- or overestimation by experts would not change the overall conclusion that populations would decline. An additional sensitivity analysis revealed that a parameter related to nest survival for which there was high disagreement among experts had a negligible effect on model outcome, while other parameters (e.g., the effect of poaching) had more influence. Our analyses demonstrate the use of an expert-parameterized decision-support population viability analysis that explicitly evaluates the effects of multiple sources of uncertainty on model predictions.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi↗
USGS2002

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2001

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2001 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. In addition to our normal monitoring, we completed an array of studies addressing the potential impacts of winter recreation on denning grizzly bears. This research was in response to a lawsuit filed against the Gallatin National Forest and subsequent need to develop a biological assessment addressing effects of snowmobile use on grizzly bears (Chemy 2001). Research results were also used by the National Park Service for a biological assessment and winter use plan (U.S. Department of the Interior 2001). The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) was able to use existing data collected from collared bears to address several issues and data needs for both agencies. Denning chronology (Haroldson et al. 2002), denning areas (Podruzny et al. 2002), and grizzly distribution (Schwartz et al. 2002) were all addressed. Information from these studies was presented at the International Association for Bear Research and Management (IBA) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in 2001, and all 3 manuscripts have been officially accepted for publication in the journal Ursus . Abstracts are attached to this report (Appendices A, B. and C). Additionally, members of the study team participated in a workshop held by the National Park Service to develop monitoring protocols addressing the impacts of snowmobiles on wildlife (Graves and Reams 2001). The study team has also been working on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establisha minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS) 1993). Efforts by the Study Team to calculate more statistically sound estimates of population size have been underway for sometime. Eberhardt and Knight (1996) applied a Peterson-type capturemark-recapture estimator to unduplicated counts, and Boyce et al. (1999) recommended a maximum likelihood method. These methods assumed equal sightability of families, which was unrealistic for the Yellowstone population. Consequently, Boyce et al. (2001) recommended using a negative binomial distribution but found that they obtained reasonable results only when the coefficient of variation among sightings was assumed to be constant overtime. This assumption is also difficult to justify. Recent work by the study team (Keating et al. 2002) evaluated the application of 7 nonparametric estimators to assess their performance in determining the number of females with COY in a given year. This work identified 2 estimators that performed well using Monte Carlo simulations over a range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population: Chao's estimator (Chao 1984) and the sample coverage estimator (Chao and Lee 1992, Lee and Chao 1994). This work was presented at the IBA meeting in Jackson and the manuscript has been accepted in the journal Ursus . An abstract of this work is attached to this annual report (Appendix D). We are currently refining the application of these techniques to expand the predicted number of females with COY into a total population estimate. We anticipate completion of that work in 2002 or 2003.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2024

Effects of telemetry collars on two free-roaming feral equid species

There are two species of free-roaming feral equids in North America: horses ( Equus caballus ) and donkeys or “burros” ( E . asinus ). Both species were introduced as domestic animals to North America in the early 1500s and currently inhabit rangelands across the western United States, Canada, and all continents except Antarctica. Despite their global distribution, little is known about their fine scale spatial ecology. Contemporary research tools to assess space use include global positioning system (GPS) tracking collars, but older models were problematic due to stiff collar belting causing poor fit. We tested modern designs of GPS collars on n = 105 horses and n = 60 burros for 4 years in five populations (3 horse, 2 burro) across the western United States, to assess whether collars posed welfare risks to horses or burros. We found no difference in survival of collared versus uncollared mares and jennies, and no difference in survival of their foals. In 4036 of 4307 observations for horses (93.7%) and 2115 of 2258 observations for burros (93.6%), collars were observed symmetrical, maintaining proper fit on the neck. Fur effects from collars (sweaty neck, indented fur, broken fur) were seen in 3% of horse observations and 25% of burro observations. Superficial effects (chafes and marks on skin surface) were seen in 2% of horse observations and 11% of burro observations; no severe effects from collars were seen. Body condition was not affected by collars; mean body condition of collared horses was 4.70 ± 0.54 (mean ± s.d) and 4.71 ± 0.65 for collared burros. Behavior results indicated minimal effects; collared horses stood slightly more than uncollared, and collared burros stood and foraged more in one population, but not in the other. For 6.3% of observations of horses and 6.4% of observations of burros, we found an effect of time wearing a collar on the cumulative sum of fur effects which increased over time (burros: r s = 0.87, P = <0.0001; horses: r s = 0.31, P = 0.002). Burros also showed an increase over time in the number of superficial effects, but horses did not. Collars occasionally moved into the wrong position, shifting forward over the ears; we observed this on 19 horses and 1 burro. Of those, most collars went over the ears in summer ( n = 12). All collars were equipped with a remote release mechanism as well as a timed-release mechanism for redundancy, thus removed when observed in wrong position to avoid rubbing or discomfort. Our finding of no consequential physical effects in 98% of horse observations, and 89% of burro observations suggests the consequences of collars on free-roaming equid welfare and survival is biologically insignificant, although collars should be monitored regularly and continue to be equipped with a remote release mechanism to remove a collar if needed. With frequent welfare-driven, visual monitoring, collaring of free-roaming equids can be a safe and useful tool to increase our understanding of their spatial ecology, demography, habitat use, behavior, and interactions with other wildlife.

Arizona, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2015

Implementation of a framework for multi-species, multi-objective adaptive management in Delaware Bay

Decision analytic approaches have been widely recommended as well suited to solving disputed and ecologically complex natural resource management problems with multiple objectives and high uncertainty. However, the difference between theory and practice is substantial, as there are very few actual resource management programs that represent formal applications of decision analysis. We applied the process of structured decision making to Atlantic horseshoe crab harvest decisions in the Delaware Bay region to develop a multispecies adaptive management (AM) plan, which is currently being implemented. Horseshoe crab harvest has been a controversial management issue since the late 1990s. A largely unregulated horseshoe crab harvest caused a decline in crab spawning abundance. That decline coincided with a major decline in migratory shorebird populations that consume horseshoe crab eggs on the sandy beaches of Delaware Bay during spring migration. Our approach incorporated multiple stakeholders, including fishery and shorebird conservation advocates, to account for diverse management objectives and varied opinions on ecosystem function. Through consensus building, we devised an objective statement and quantitative objective function to evaluate alternative crab harvest policies. We developed a set of competing ecological models accounting for the leading hypotheses on the interaction between shorebirds and horseshoe crabs. The models were initially weighted based on stakeholder confidence in these hypotheses, but weights will be adjusted based on monitoring and Bayesian model weight updating. These models were used together to predict the effects of management actions on the crab and shorebird populations. Finally, we used a dynamic optimization routine to identify the state dependent optimal harvest policy for horseshoe crabs, given the possible actions, the stated objectives and our competing hypotheses about system function. The AM plan was reviewed, accepted and implemented by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission in 2012 and 2013. While disagreements among stakeholders persist, structured decision making enabled unprecedented progress towards a transparent and consensus driven management plan for crabs and shorebirds in Delaware Bay.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2018

Slow and steady wins the race? Future climate and land use change leaves the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) behind

Climate change is accompanied by shifts in species distributions, as portions of current ranges become less suitable. Maintaining or improving landscape connectivity to facilitate species movements is a primary approach to mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is not clear how ongoing changes in land use and climate may affect the existing connectivity of landscapes. We evaluated shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity for the imperiled Blanding's turtle ( Emydoidea blandingii ) in Wisconsin using species distribution modeling in combination with different future scenarios of both land use change and climate change for the 2050s. We found that climate change had significant effects on both habitat suitability and connectivity, however, there was little difference in the magnitude of effects among different economic scenarios. Under both our low- and high-CO 2 emissions scenarios, suitable habitat for the Blanding's turtle shifted northward. In the high-emissions scenario, almost no suitable habitat remained for Blanding's turtle in Wisconsin by the 2050s and there was up to a 100,000-fold increase in landscape resistance to turtle movement, suggesting the landscape essentially becomes impassable. Habitat loss and landscape resistance were exponentially greater in southern versus northern Wisconsin, indicating a strong trailing edge effect. Thus, populations at the southern edge of the range are likely to “fall behind” shifts in suitable habitat faster than northern populations. Given its limited dispersal capability, loss of suitable habitat may occur at a rate far faster than the Blanding's turtle can adjust to changing conditions via shifts in range.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

Behavioral responses of native and invasive fishes of the Upper Mississippi River to 100 hp boat motor acoustic stimulus

Acoustic deterrents are currently being considered for deployment at strategic bottlenecks, such as lock and dams of major rivers, to deter upstream movement of invasive carp. Previous studies have demonstrated that bighead and silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and H. molitrix , respectively) display negative phonotaxis to playbacks of broadband sound recordings produced from a 100 hp outboard boat motor. However, there is concern that acoustic deterrents may impact the movement of non-target native fishes in the Upper Mississippi River. We evaluated the potential impacts of a broadband underwater acoustic deterrent on native ostariophysans [bigmouth buffalo ( Ictiobus cyprinellus ), channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ) and fathead minnow ( Pimephales promelas )], invasive ostariophysans [bighead carp, common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ), grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) and silver carp], and native non-ostariophysans [(American eel ( Anguilla rostrata ), gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum ), hybrid striped bass ( M. saxatilis × M. chrysops ), lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) and paddlefish ( Polyodon spathula )]. Fish were exposed to playback of the broadband sound (60–10000 Hz), and their behavior was evaluated. Bighead carp showed a strong negative phonotaxis response to the stimulus [12.3 ± 7.5 (SD) mean consecutive reactions], silver carp and grass carp showed moderate responses (4.5 ± 5.2 and 3.8 ± 3.5 reactions), and common carp displayed low responses (1.3 ± 1.9 reactions). Of the native fish, bigmouth buffalo (2.1 ± 2.9 reactions) and hybrid striped bass (0.3 ± 0.5 reactions) were the only species to demonstrate observable response to the acoustic stimulus. Based on this small-scale behavioral screening, acoustic deterrents should have minimal impact on native species; however, larger pond and field trials are necessary to confirm this finding.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2021

Predicted climate-induced reductions in scavenging in eastern North America

Scavenging is an important function within ecosystems where scavengers remove organic matter, reduce disease, stabilize food webs, and generally make ecosystems more resilient to environmental changes. Global change (i.e., changing climate and increasing human impact) is currently influencing scavenger communities. Thus, understanding what promotes species richness in scavenger communities can help prioritize management actions. Using a long-term dataset from camera traps deployed with animal carcasses as bait along a 1881 km latitudinal gradient in the Appalachian Mountains of eastern USA, we investigated the relative impact of climate and humans on the species richness and diversity of vertebrate scavengers. Our most supported models for both mammalian and avian scavengers included climatic, but not human, variables. The richness of mammalian and avian scavengers detected was highest during relatively warm (5–10°C) and dry (100–150 mm precipitation) winters, when food was likely limited and both reliance on and detection of carrion was high. The diversity of mammalian and avian scavengers detected was highest under drier conditions. We then used these results to project the future species richness of scavengers that would be detected within our sampling area and under the climate scenario of 2070 (emissions level RCP8.5). Our predictions suggest up to 80% and 67% reductions, respectively, in the richness of avian and mammalian scavengers that would be detected at baited sites. Climate-induced shifts in behavior (i.e., reduction in scavenging, even if present) at this scale could have cascading implications for ecosystem function, resilience, and human health. Further, our study highlights the importance of conducting studies of scavenger community dynamics within ecosystems across wide spatial gradients within temperate environments. More broadly, these findings build upon our understanding of the impacts of climate-induced adjustments in behavior that can likely have negative impacts on systems at a large scale.

Appalachian Mountains↗
USGS2018

Correlating sea lamprey density with environmental DNA detections in the lab

Invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus Linnaeus, 1758) are currently managed by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission in an effort to reduce pest populations below levels that cause ecological damage. One technique to improve stream population assessments could be molecular surveillance in the form of environmental DNA (eDNA) monitoring. We developed and validated four probe-based quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays, then used two probes (cytb, nd1) to determine whether eDNA concentration was correlated with adult and larval sea lamprey density in the lab. We found a strong positive correlation between adult sea lamprey densities of 2, 20, and 200 individuals/2000L and eDNA concentrations in tanks using both assays (cytb, nd1). For larval laboratory tank density trials, eDNA concentrations were generally near our limit of quantification and there was no significant difference in copy numbers detected between larval sea lamprey densities of 1, 5, and 25 individuals/28L. Therefore, we examined detection probability rather than concentration with laboratory tank densities. We observed a trend of increasing detection probabilities with increased larval sea lamprey density that approached significance suggesting that when DNA copy numbers are low, detection rates may be more informative in predicting varying densities of larval sea lamprey. The ability to assess sea lamprey densities from a water sample could be a powerful tool to improve traditional assessment and stream ranking techniques. Further refinement of this method in the field may make eDNA surveillance of sea lamprey a reliable part of stream assessments. Rapid eDNA analysis from many streams may help focus traditional assessment efforts, thereby improving the efficiency of invasive sea lamprey control efforts.

Management of Biological Invasions↗