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At least 1,261 records · Page 70Linked to original sources

Incorporating Allee effects into the potential biological removal level

Potential biological removal (PBR) is an approach used to calculate sustainable harvest and “take” limits for populations. PBR was originally derived assuming logistic growth while ignoring the effects of small population size (i.e., an Allee effect). We derived a version of PBR that includes an Allee effect (i.e., small population size or densities limiting population growth rates). We found that PBR becomes less conservative when it fails to consider an Allee effect. Specifically, sustainable harvest and take levels based upon PBR with an Allee effect were between approximately 51% and 66% of levels based upon PBR without an Allee effect. Managers and biologists using PBR may need to consider the limitations if an Allee effect may be present in the species being modeled.

Natural Resource Modeling↗

Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.

Ecology and Society↗

Conservation implications of spatiotemporal variation in the terrestrial ecology of Western spadefoots

Conservation of species reliant on ephemeral resources can be especially challenging in the face of a changing climate. Western spadefoots ( Spea hammondii ) are small burrowing anurans that breed in ephemeral pools, but adults spend the majority of their lives underground in adjacent terrestrial habitat. Western spadefoots are of conservation concern throughout their range because of habitat loss, but little is known about the activity patterns and ecology of their terrestrial life stage. We conducted a radio-telemetry study of adult western spadefoots at 2 sites in southern California, USA, from December 2018 to November 2019 to characterize their survival, behavior, and movements from breeding through aestivation to refine conservation and management for the species. Western spadefoot survival varied seasonally, with risk of mortality higher in the active season than during aestivation. The probability of movement between successive observations was higher during the winter and spring and when atmospheric moisture was high and soil water content at 10-cm depth was low. The amount of rain between observations had the strongest effect on the probability of movement between observations; for every 20 mm of rainfall between observations, western spadefoots were 2.4 times more likely to move. When movements occurred, movement rates were highest when both relative humidity and soil water content at 10-cm depth were high. The conditions under which western spadefoots were likely active on the surface, likely to have moved, and moved at the highest rates are conditions that reduce the risk of desiccation of surface-active spadefoots. Western spadefoot home range areas varied between study sites and were mostly <1 ha, although 1 individual's home range area was >6 ha. Western spadefoots rapidly dispersed from the breeding pools, and asymptotic distances from the breeding pool were generally reached by June. The asymptotic distance from the breeding pool varied between sites, with the 95th percentile of the posterior predictive distribution reaching 486 m at 1 site and 187 m at the other. Western spadefoots did not select most habitat components disproportionately to their availability, but at Crystal Cove State Park, they avoided most evaluated vegetation types (graminoids, forbs, and shrubs). Spatial variation was evident in most evaluated western spadefoot behaviors; context-dependent behavior suggests that site-specific management is likely necessary for western spadefoots. Furthermore, comparison with an earlier study of western spadefoots at Crystal Cove State Park indicated substantial temporal variation in western spadefoot behavior. Therefore, basing management decisions on short-term studies might fail to meet conservation objectives. Better understanding the influences of spatial context and climatic variation on western spadefoot behavior will improve conservation efforts for this species.

California↗

Geographic Information System Tools for Conservation Planning: User's Manual

Public and private land managers desire better ways to incorporate landscape, species, and habitat relations into their conservation planning processes. We present three tools, developed for the Environmental Systems Research Institute?s ArcView 3.x platform, applicable to many types of wildlife conservation management and planning efforts. These tools provide managers and planners with the ability to rapidly assess landscape attributes and link these attributes with species-habitat information. To use the tools, the user provides a detailed land cover spatial database and develops a matrix to identify species-habitat relations for the landscape of interest. The tools are applicable to any taxa or suite of taxa for which the required data are available. The user also has the ability to interactively make polygon-specific changes to the landscape and re-examine species-habitat relations. The development of these tools has given resource managers the means to evaluate the merits of proposed landscape management scenarios and to choose the scenario that best fits the goals of the managed area.

Information and Technology Report↗

Hydrogeologic and geospatial data for the assessment of focused recharge to the carbonate-rock Aquifer in Genesee County, New York

Existing hydrogeologic and geospatial data useful for the assessment of focused recharge to the carbonate-rock aquifer in the central part of Genesee County, NY, were compiled from numerous local, State, and Federal agency sources. Data sources utilized in this pilot study include available geospatial datasets from Federal and State agencies, interviews with local highway departments and the Genesee County Soil and Water Conservation District, and an initial assessment of karst features through the analysis of ortho-photographs, with minimal field verification. The compiled information is presented in a series of county-wide and quadrangle maps. The county-wide maps present generalized hydrogeologic conditions including distribution of geologic units, major faults, and karst features, and bedrock-surface and water-table configurations. Ten sets of quadrangle maps of the area that overlies the carbonate-rock aquifer present more detailed and additional information including distribution of bedrock outcrops, thin and (or) permeable soils, and karst features such as sinkholes and swallets. Water-resource managers can utilize the information summarized in this report as a guide to their assessment of focused recharge to, and the potential for surface contaminants to reach the carbonate-rock aquifer.

New York↗

Streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for selected locations on the Upper Yellowstone and Bighorn Rivers, Montana and Wyoming, 1928-2002

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 intensified public debate about the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council was formed to address conservation issues on the river. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to carry out a cumulative effects study on the main stem of the Yellowstone River. The cumulative effects study is intended to provide a basis for future management decisions within the watershed. Streamflow statistics, such as flow-frequency data calculated for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions, are a necessary component of the cumulative effects study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, calculated low-flow frequency data and general monthly and annual statistics for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions for the Upper Yellowstone and Bighorn Rivers for the 1928–2002 study period; these data are presented in this report. Unregulated streamflow represents flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if there had been no water-resources development in the Yellowstone River Basin. Regulated streamflow represents estimates of flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if the level of water-resources development existing in 2002 was in place during the entire study period.

Montana;Wyoming↗

Heterogeneity in migration strategies of the whooping crane

Migratory birds use numerous strategies to successfully complete twice-annual movements between breeding and wintering sites. Context for conservation and management can be provided by characterizing these strategies. Variations in strategy among and within individuals support population persistence in response to changes in land use and climate. We used location data from 58 marked Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) from 2010–2016 to characterize migration strategies in the U.S. Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and southern boreal region, and to explore sources of heterogeneity in their migration strategy, including space use, timing, and performance. Whooping Cranes completed approximately 3,900-km migrations that averaged 29 days during spring and 45 days during autumn, while making 11–12 nighttime stops. At the scale of our analysis, individual Whooping Cranes showed little consistency in stopover sites used among migration seasons (i.e., low site fidelity). In contrast, individuals expressed a measure of consistency in timing, especially migration initiation date. Whooping Cranes migrated at different times based on age and reproductive status, where adults with young initiated autumn migration after other birds, and adults with and without young initiated spring migration before subadult birds. Time spent at stopover sites was associated with migration bout length and time spent at previous stopover sites, suggesting Whooping Cranes acquired energy resources at some stopover sites that they used to fuel migration. Whooping Cranes were faithful to a defined migration corridor but showed less fidelity in their selection of nighttime stopover sites; hence, spatial targeting of conservation actions may be better informed by associations with landscape and habitat features rather than documented past use at specific locations. The preservation of variation in migration strategies existing within this species that experienced a severe population bottleneck suggests that Whooping Cranes have maintained a capacity to adjust strategies when confronted with future changes in land use and climate.

Great Plains, Canadian Prairies↗

Shoals and valley plugs in the Hatchie River watershed

Agricultural land use and gully erosion have historically contributed more sediment to the streams of the Hatchie River watershed than those streams can carry. In 1970, the main sedimentation problem in the watershed occurred in the tributary flood plains. This problem motivated channelization projects (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970). By the mid-1980's, concern had shifted to sedimentation in the Hatchie River itself where channelized tributaries were understood to contribute much of the sediment. The Soil Conservation Service [Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) since 1996] estimated that 640,000 tons of bedload (sand) accumulates in the Hatchie River each year and identified roughly the eastern two-thirds of the watershed, where loess is thin or absent, as the main source of sand (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1986a). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the West Tennessee River Basin Authority (WTRBA), conducted a study of sediment accumulation in the Hatchie River and its tributaries. This report identifies the types of tributaries and evaluates sediment, shoal formation, and valley-plug problems. The results presented here may contribute to a better understanding of similar problems in West Tennessee and the rest of the southeastern coastal plain. This information also will help the WTRBA manage sedimentation and erosion problems in the Hatchie River watershed. The source of the Mississippi section of the Hatchie River is in the sand hills southwest of Corinth, Mississippi (fig. 1). This section of the Hatchie River flows northward in an artificial drainage canal, gathering water from tributary streams that also are channelized. The drainage canal ends 2 miles south of the Tennessee State line. The Tennessee section of the Hatchie River winds north and west in a meandering natural channel to the Mississippi River. Although most of the Hatchie River tributaries are also drainage canals, the river's main stem has kept most of its natural character. The Hatchie River flows through a wide valley bottom occupied mostly by riverine wetland. Historically, the valley bottom has supported hardwood forests. Since publication of the first Hatchie River report (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970), the channel of the river has become shallower, and flooding has increased (U.S. Department of Agriculture 1986b). These wetter conditions inhibit growth of hardwoods and lead to premature hardwood mortality. The NRCS has predicted that despite efforts to control erosion in the uplands, most of the valley-bottom forest will die. '...swamping may be so prevalent as to change most of the Hatchie River Basin flood plain into a marsh condition, with the only remnants of the present bottomland hardwood timber remaining. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1986b). Loss of channel depth has been concentrated in short reaches near tributary mouths. At the mouths of Richland, Porters, Clover, and Muddy Creeks, navigation has become difficult for recreational users (Johnny Carlin, West Tennessee River Basin Authority, oral commun., 1998). As the low-gradient alluvial system of the Hatchie River accumulates sediment, another common outcome has been the formation of valley plugs, areas where 'channels are filled with sediment, and all the additional bedload brought downstream is then spread out over the flood plain until a new channel has been formed' (Happ, 1975). Valley plugs typically form where the slope of a sand-laden tributary decreases downstream, or where the tributary joins its parent stream (Happ and others, 1940; Diehl, 1994, 1997; Smith and Diehl, 2000).

Mississippi, Tennessee↗

Novel landscape elements within natural gas fields increase densities but not fitness of an important songbird nest predator

Identifying the elements within human-altered landscapes most associated with population and community changes is critical for conservation and management of sensitive species. We investigated which features of habitat change from natural gas development best explained the density of deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ), an important nest predator of declining sagebrush-obligate songbirds. During 2014–2016, we quantified the spatial extent of habitat change (well pads, roads, and reclaimed areas [i.e., reseeded soils]) surrounding 12 sites spanning two natural gas fields in Wyoming, USA. We further tested whether the altered plant communities within reclaimed areas provided benefits to deer mice, by assessing multiple fitness indices. Deer mouse density increased with surrounding reclaimed area. Powder tracking and dietary analyses confirmed that mice moved through and consumed plant species found exclusively within reclaimed areas. Concomitant fitness metrics of mice, however, were neutrally or negatively related to the amount of surrounding reclaimed area. Mice therefore did not derive any apparent fitness benefits associated with living near reclaimed areas, despite the presence of novel food resources, indicating that increased abundance may be a product of mice dispersing toward reseeded soils. Our study contributes mechanistic insights into the complexities of how human-induced changes to landscapes can influence community dynamics. Minimizing total habitat disturbed during construction, expediting reclamation practices, and using only native and regionally-local seed mixes would likely help minimize increases in synanthropic rodent predators within energy fields. More efficient restoration of disturbed habitat, moreover, may help ameliorate altered predator-prey relationships that affect the success of sensitive species.

Wyoming↗

A new database on contaminant exposure and effects in terrestrial vertebrates for natural resource managers

The Biomonitoring of Environmental Status and Trends (BEST) program of the Department of the Interior is focused to identify and understand effects of contaminant stressors on biological resources under their stewardship. Despite the desire of many to continuously monitor the environmental health of our estuaries, much can be learned by summarizing existing temporal, geographic, and phylogenetic contaminant information. To this end, retrospective contaminant exposure and effects data for amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals residing within 30 km of Atlantic coast estuaries are being assembled through searches of published literature (e.g., Fisheries Review, Wildlife Review, BIOSIS Previews) and databases (e.g., US EPA Ecological Incident Information System; USGS Diagnostic and Epizootic Databases), and compilation of summary data from unpublished reports of government natural resource agencies, private conservation groups, and universities. These contaminant exposure and effect data for terrestrial vertebrates (CEE-TV) are being summarized using Borland dBASE in a 96- field format, including species, collection time and site coordinates, sample matrix, contaminant concentration, biomarker and bioindicator responses, and source of information (N>1500 records). This CEE-TV database has been imported into the ARC/INFO geographic information system (GIS), for purposes of examining geographic coverage and trends, and to identify critical data gaps. A preliminary risk assessment will be conducted to identify and characterize contaminants and other stressors potentially affecting terrestrial vertebrates that reside, migrate through or reproduce in these estuaries. Evaluations are underway, using specific measurement and assessment endpoints, to rank and prioritize estuarine ecosystems in which terrestrial vertebrates are potentially at risk for purposes of prediction and focusing future biomonitoring efforts.

Book chapter↗

A global ecological signal of extinction risk in marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii)

Many marine fish species are experiencing population declines, but their extinction risk profiles are largely understudied in comparison to their terrestrial vertebrate counterparts. Selective extinction of marine fish species may result in rapid alteration of the structure and function of ocean ecosystems. In this study, we compiled an ecological trait dataset for 8,185 species of marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii) from FishBase and used phylogenetic generalized linear models to examine which ecological traits are associated with increased extinction risk, based on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List. We also assessed which threat types may be driving these species toward greater extinction risk and whether threatened species face a greater average number of threat types than non-threatened species. We found that larger body size and/or fishes with life histories involving movement between marine, brackish, and freshwater environments are associated with elevated extinction risk. Commercial harvesting threatens the greatest number of species, followed by pollution, development, and then climate change. We also found that threatened species, on average, face a significantly greater number of threat types than non-threatened species. These results can be used by resource managers to help address the heightened extinction risk patterns we found.

Cambridge Prisms: Extinction↗

Explaining support for mandatory versus voluntary conservation actions among waterfowlers

Personal conservation behavior and compliance with natural resource regulations are important to wildlife conservation. We examined how waterfowl hunting involvement, motivations, satisfaction, and experience, along with institutional trust and demographics, correlated with support for waterfowl regulations and personal conservation actions. Regulations included zones, splits, and motorized decoys, while conservation behaviors addressed hunter recruitment, along with donations, volunteering, and voting in ways to support wildlife conservation. Results suggested that agency trust was positively related to support for regulations but negatively related to personal conservation behaviors. An increased orientation to harvest waterfowl was negatively related to both support for regulations and conservation behaviors. Education, income, Ducks Unlimited membership, and days hunting were positively related to personal conservation behavior. Results may help managers work cooperatively with hunters and conservation groups to support wildlife conservation.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife↗

U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative - 2008 Annual Report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was launched in 2007 in response to concerns about threats to the State's world class wildlife resources, especially the threat posed by rapidly increasing energy development in southwest Wyoming. The overriding purpose of the WLCI is to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale, while facilitating responsible energy and other types of development. The WLCI includes partners from Federal, State, and local agencies, with participation from public and private entities, industry, and landowners. As a principal WLCI partner, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides multidisciplinary scientific and technical support to inform decisionmaking in the WLCI. To address WLCI management needs, USGS has designed and implemented five integrated work activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research, (3) Integration and Coordination, (4) Data and Information Management, and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. Ongoing information management of data and products acquired or generated through the integrated work activities will ensure that crucial scientific information is available to partners and stakeholders in a readily accessible and useable format for decisionmaking and evaluation. Significant progress towards WLCI goals has been achieved in many Science and Technical Assistance tasks of the work activities. Available data were identified, acquired, compiled, and integrated into a comprehensive database for use by WLCI partners and to support USGS science activities. A Web-based platform for sharing these data and products has been developed and is already in use. Numerous map products have been completed and made available to WLCI partners, and other products are in progress. Initial conceptual, habitat, and climate change models have been developed or refined. Monitoring designs for terrestrial and aquatic indicators have been completed, pilot data have been collected for terrestrial indicators, and evaluations of alternative monitoring designs are underway. Initial models and map products have been developed for assessing vegetation, surface disturbance, oil and gas resources, mineral resources, surficial geology, invasive species, aspen treatments, ungulate migration corridors, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), pygmy rabbits (Brachylagus idahoensis), and songbirds, and data were collected or compiled to validate and refine the models. Coordination and collaboration among partners has led to the production of several documents addressing WLCI objectives, strategies, and guiding principles, and has facilitated implementation of on-the-ground habitat treatments.

Open-File Report↗

Assessment of soil-gas, surface-water, and soil contamination at the Installation Railhead, Fort Gordon, Georgia, 2008-2009

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Army Environmental and Natural Resources Management Office of the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, assessed soil gas, surface water, and soil for contaminants at the Installation Railhead (IR) at Fort Gordon, Georgia, from October 2008 to September 2009. The assessment included delineation of organic contaminants present in soil-gas samples beneath the IR, and in a surface-water sample collected from an unnamed tributary to Marcum Branch in the western part of the IR. Inorganic contaminants were determined in a surface-water sample and in soil samples. This assessment was conducted to provide environmental contamination data to Fort Gordon personnel pursuant to requirements of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Part B Hazardous Waste Permit process. Soil-gas samples collected within a localized area on the western part of the IR contained total petroleum hydrocarbons; benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and total xylenes (referred to as BTEX); and naphthalene above the method detection level. These soil-gas samples were collected where buildings had previously stood. Soil-gas samples collected within a localized area contained perchloroethylene (PCE). These samples were collected where buildings 2410 and 2405 had been. Chloroform and toluene were detected in a surface-water sample collected from an unnamed tributary to Marcum Branch but at concentrations below the National Primary Drinking Water Standard maximum contaminant level (MCL) for each compound. Iron was detected in the surface-water sample at 686 micrograms per liter (ug/L) and exceeded the National Secondary Drinking Water Standard MCL for iron. Metal concentrations in composite soil samples collected at three locations from land surface to a depth of 6 inches did not exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regional Screening Levels for industrial soil.

Georgia↗

Management and monitoring of the endangered Shenandoah salamander under climate change: Workshop report 10-12 April 2012

Here we report on a structured decision making (SDM) process to identify management strategies to ensure persistence of the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), given that it may be at increased extinction risk under projected climate change. The focus of this report is the second of two SDM workshops; in the first workshop, participants developed a prototype of the decision, including problem frame, management objectives and a suite of potential management strategies, predictive models to inform the decision and link alternatives with the objectives to identify potential solutions, and identified data needs to reduce key uncertainties in the decision. Participants in this second workshop included experts in National Park Service policy at multiple administrative levels, who refined objectives, further evaluated the initial management alternatives, and discussed policy constraints on implementing active management for the species and its high-elevation habitat. The conclusion of the second workshop was similar to that of the first: the current state of information and objectives suggest that there is some value in considering active management to reduce the long-term extinction risk for the species, though there are institutional conservative policies to implementing active management at range-wide scales. The workshop participants also emphasized a conservative NPS management philosophy, including caution in implementing management actions that may ultimately harm the system, a stated assumption that ecosystem changes were “natural” unless demonstrated otherwise (therefore not warranting active management to mitigate), and a need to demonstrate that extinction risk is tied to anthropogenic influence prior to taking active management to mitigate specific anthropogenic influences. Even within a protected area having minimal human disturbance, intertwined environmental variables and interspecific relationships that drive population trends challenge our ability to demonstrate direct links with (anthropogenically influenced) climate change and the decline of a species. Thus while this policy may reduce the potential for injurious management, it may also necessitate extraordinary resources to reduce uncertainty regarding fundamental drivers of species decline prior to taking action.

Natural Resource Report↗

Drivers of landscape change in the northwest boreal region

The northwest boreal region (NWB) of North America is a land of extremes. Extending more than 1.3 million square kilometers (330 million acres), it encompasses the entire spectrum between inundated wetlands below sea level to the tallest peak in North America. Permafrost gradients span from nearly continuous to absent. Boreal ecosystems are inherently dynamic and continually change over decades to millennia. The braided rivers that shape the valleys and wetlands continually change course, creating and removing vast wetlands and peatlands. Glacial melt, erosion, fires, permafrost dynamics, and wind-blown loess are among the shaping forces of the landscape. As a result, species interactions and ecosystem processes are shifting across time. The NWB is a data-poor region, and the intention of the NWB Landscape Conservation Cooperative is to determine what data are not available and what data are available. For instance, historical baseline data describing the economic and social relationships in association with the ecological condition of the NWB landscape are often lacking. Likewise, the size and remoteness of this region make it challenging to measure basic biological information, such as species population sizes or trends. The paucity of weather and climate monitoring stations also compound the ability to model future climate trends and impacts, which is part of the nature of working in the north. The purpose of this volume is to create a resource for regional land and resource managers and researchers by synthesizing the latest research on the historical and current status of landscape-scale drivers (including anthropogenic activities) and ecosystem processes, future projected changes of each, and the effects of changes on important resources. Generally, each chapter is coauthored by researchers and land and natural resource managers from the United States and Canada.

Northwest Boreal Region↗

Assessing the risk of non-native marine species in the Bering Sea

Invasive species are one of the leading global conservation concerns, which can have strong, negative impacts on ecosystems, vulnerable species, and valuable natural resources. Arctic regions have experienced a relatively low number of biological introductions to date. Their geographical remoteness, cold waters, and presence of sea ice present challenging conditions for both non-native organisms and the vessels that transport them, presumably leading to low rates of introduction and establishment. However, observed increases in water temperatures reductions in sea ice, and projected increases in shipping traffic are expected to render arctic marine regions more susceptible to the arrival and colonization of marine invasives. Risk assessments for these Arctic regions are important to inform management and monitoring priorities by determining which species pose the greatest risk. To this end, we developed a ranking system for non-native marine species and used this system to assess the risk of non-native species to the Bering Sea. Using species’ published physiological tolerances, we mapped habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios to identify geographic areas of current and future concern. In addition, we described shipping traffic from commercial and fishing vessels to identify ports of entry for non-native species. Collectively, these analyses identify which marine species have the greatest risk for invasion, where in the Bering Sea invasion risk and species establishment is greatest, and which ports are most likely to serve as an entry point for marine invasives into Alaska’s Bering Sea. The ranking system we developed for non-native marine species consists of 33 questions grouped into five categories. The first four categories evaluate a species’ ability to arrive and establish in the Bering Sea, its reliance on humans for introductions, its biology, and its impacts on ecological and human systems. The fifth category is not included in the total ranking score, but provides information on management considerations. The ranking system has methods to account for data deficiencies and calculates these deficiencies to allow readers to weigh the lack of knowledge with the ranking score. We prioritized non-native species for ranking based on their geographic proximity to the Bering Sea. We evaluated 46 species and ranking scores ranged from 29.1 to 74.3 (out of a possible 100), with highest scores indicating greatest risk. Taxonomy at the level of phylum did not explain variation in ranking values, likely due to the substantial biological variation relative to our ranking criteria among members of the same phylum. To investigate where non-native species may survive and persist in the Bering Sea, we compared species’ temperature and salinity thresholds to environmental conditions of the Bering Sea. Environmental conditions were obtained from three Regional Ocean Modeling Systems (ROMS) and investigated under two time periods: current (2003-2012) and mid-century (2030-2039). We identified potential habitat for survival for 42 species, and potential habitat for reproduction for 29 species. Under current conditions, all species had temperature and salinity thresholds that would allow survival in the Bering Sea for at least part of the year, and most species (79% to 83%) had thresholds that would allow for survival year-round. For species with temperature and salinity thresholds unsuitable for survival in the Bering Sea, winter temperatures appear to be the limiting factor. Most species had six to nine weeks of suitable conditions for reproduction. Future increases in water temperatures are expected to open more habitat for marine invasives. Two of the three ROMs project an increase in the number of non-native species that would be able to survive year-round by mid-century. Moreover, models project between 37% and 60% of the Bering Sea shelf habitat to become more suitable under mid-century climate condition.

Alaska↗

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Conservation Biology↗