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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Does the stress-gradient hypothesis hold water? Disentangling spatial and temporal variation in plant effects on soil moisture in dryland systems

The nature of the relationship between water limitation and facilitation has been one of the most contentious debates surrounding the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH), which states that plant-plant interactions shift from competition to facilitation with increasing environmental stress. We take a closer look at the potential role of soil moisture in mediating plant-plant interaction outcomes by assessing effects of climate and soil texture on plant modulation of soil moisture. Using an empirically-parameterized soil moisture model, we simulated soil moisture dynamics beneath shrubs and in un-vegetated coarse and fine soils for 1000 sites in the Western United States with <700 mm mean annual precipitation. This threshold reflects the transition from dryland (<600 mm precipitation) to mesic ecosystems. Positive effects of shrubs on shallow soil moisture (i.e. the difference between shrub and interspace soil moisture) decreased along the aridity gradient when long-term average conditions were considered, contrary to expectations based on the SGH. Negative effects of shrubs on deeper soil moisture also increased with aridity. However, when extreme years were considered, positive effects of shrub on soil moisture were greatest at intermediate points along the spatial aridity gradient, consistent with a hump-backed model of plant-plant interactions. When viewed through time within a site, shrub effects on shallow soil moisture were positively related to precipitation, with more complex relationships exhibited in deeper soils Taken together, the results of this simulation study suggest that plant effects on soil moisture are predictable based on relatively general relationships between precipitation inputs and differential evaporation and transpiration rates between plant and interspace microsites that are largely driven by temperature. In particular, this study highlights the importance of differentiating between temporal and spatial variation in weather and climate, respectively, in determining plant effects on available soil moisture. Rather than focusing on the somewhat coarse-scale predictions of the SGH, it may be more beneficial to explicitly incorporate plant effects on soil moisture into predictive models of plant-plant interaction outcomes in drylands.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2022

Late Paleoproterozoic to early Mesoproterozoic deposition of quartz arenites across southern Laurentia

Supermature siliciclastic sequences were deposited between 1.64 Ga and 1.59 Ga over a broad swath of southern Laurentia in the Archean, Penokean, Yavapai, and Mazatzal Provinces. These siliciclastic sequences are notable for their extreme mineralogical and chemical maturity, being devoid of detrital feldspar and ferromagnesian minerals, containing the clay mineral kaolinite (or its metamorphic equivalent, pyrophyllite), and having a chemical index of alteration >95. Such maturity is the result of a perfect confluence of tectonic and climatic conditions, including a stable continental crust with low topographic relief (the Archean, Penokean, and Yavapai Provinces ca. 1.70 Ga), a warm humid climate, an elevated level of atmospheric CO 2 , and relatively acidic pore fluids in the critical zone. The weathered detritus was transported and deposited by southward-flowing streams across the Archean, Penokean, and Yavapai Provinces, ultimately to be deposited on 1.66 Ga volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks in the Mazatzal continental arc along the southern margin of Laurentia.

Laurentia↗

USGS2017

Species interactions and the effects of climate variability on a wetland amphibian metacommunity

Disentangling the role that multiple interacting factors have on species responses to shifting climate poses a significant challenge. However, our ability to do so is of utmost importance to predict the effects of climate change on species distributions. We examined how populations of three species of wetland-breeding amphibians, which varied in life history requirements, responded to a six-year period of extremely variable precipitation. This interval was punctuated by both extensive drought and heavy precipitation and flooding, providing a natural experiment to measure community responses to environmental perturbations. We estimated occurrence dynamics using a discrete hidden Markov modeling approach that incorporated information regarding habitat state and predator–prey interactions. This approach allowed us to measure how metapopulation dynamics of each amphibian species was affected by interactions among weather, wetland hydroperiod, and co-occurrence with fish predators. The pig frog, a generalist, proved most resistant to perturbations, with both colonization and persistence being unaffected by seasonal variation in precipitation or co-occurrence with fishes. The ornate chorus frog, an ephemeral wetland specialist, responded positively to periods of drought owing to increased persistence and colonization rates during periods of low-rainfall. Low probabilities of occurrence of the ornate chorus frog in long-duration wetlands were driven by interactions with predators due to low colonization rates when fishes were present. The mole salamander was most sensitive to shifts in water availability. In our study area, this species never occurred in short-duration wetlands and persistence probabilities decreased during periods of drought. At the same time, negative effects occurred with extreme precipitation because flooding facilitated colonization of fishes to isolated wetlands and mole salamanders did not colonize wetlands once fishes were present. We demonstrate that the effects of changes in water availability depend on interactions with predators and wetland type and are influenced by the life history of each of our species. The dynamic species occurrence modeling approach we used offers promise for other systems when the goal is to disentangle the complex interactions that determine species responses to environmental variability.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Atmospheric circulation drivers of extreme high water level events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska

The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay is one region along the Beaufort Sea coast with planned offshore oil/gas development that will need to account for the changing climate. High water levels impact infrastructure through coastal erosion and flooding hazards. In this study, 21 high water level events exceeding the top 95th percentile were identified at the gauge in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska (adjacent to Foggy Island Bay) over 1990-2018. All events were associated with strong westerly winds according to weather station records. Low pressure storm systems were found to be a key driver of westerly winds in the region according to downscaled reanalysis and storm track data. A dynamically downscaled global climate model projection from CMIP5 indicates that days with westerly wind events will become frequent by 2100 in the Foggy Island Bay region. Coupled with the anticipated continued decline in sea ice, the northern coast of Alaska may experience more frequent high water events over the next ~80 years.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

The relative contribution of climate to changes in lesser prairie-chicken abundance

Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), which was listed as “threatened” under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie-chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad-scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2026

The interplay of habitat quality and temperature shape demographic patterns of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in North America

Mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) are declining in abundance across their broad distribution in western North America. Identifying drivers of mule deer demography could inform habitat restoration. However, linking habitat quality to vital rates is challenging and often done indirectly using proxy metrics. We combine habitat selection with climate-related effects to identify synergistic influences affecting mule deer age ratios (fawn:doe). We used location data from 1473 female deer over 22 years in Wyoming to fit seasonal resource selection models, predict habitat suitability, and model age ratios as a function of drought conditions, winter severity, and seasonal habitat. Here we show temperature had the largest effect on mule deer recruitment with age ratios declining following hotter summers and colder winters. Age ratios increased with higher proportions of habitat with high-quality summer habitat of particular importance. Given the likely increases in summer temperatures and extreme winter weather events, populations may struggle to increase recruitment over the next half-century. Targeted management supporting forage quantity and quality, especially on summer range, could buffer the effects of decades-long drought conditions. Our findings also indicate mule deer avoid areas with high densities of oil and gas development. By delineating important mule deer habitat, we offer spatial tools for development siting and mitigation in Wyoming and a framework for broader application across the western United States.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Reproductive response of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows to weather patterns and habitat structure

Avian species endemic to desert grasslands of North America contend with significant ecological challenges, including monsoonal rains, droughts, and variable temperatures. These birds have evolved physiological and behavioral means of coping with such extremes, but ongoing changes to temperature and precipitation patterns are affecting their breeding phenology, reproductive success, and population growth rates. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions and habitat structure were associated with the nest survival of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows ( Ammodramus savannarum ammolegus ) in the semidesert and plains grasslands of southeastern Arizona, USA. The mean ± SE daily survival rate (DSR) of nests was 0.960 ± 0.006, corresponding to overall nest success of 46%. The previous season's precipitation, large rain events, and nest concealment were the most important factors explaining DSR. Grasshopper Sparrow nest survival decreased with a wetter previous growing season and with large rain events on previous days. Nests that were more concealed had lower survival rates. There was some evidence that nest survival was lower later in the nesting season. In addition, when nest concealment was included in models, there were positive but weak associations between other vegetation variables and DSR—nests with higher visual obstruction at the nest and nest plot scales, and nests that were farther from shrubs >2 m tall, showed higher survival rates. Predation was the major cause of nest failure, suggesting complex interactions among predation, precipitation, and nest concealment. Further, our findings suggest tradeoffs in the potential effects of future climate change on A. s. ammolegus . The increased frequency of extreme storm events predicted for the region may result in reduced nest survival of A. s. ammolegus , but, conversely, lower seasonal precipitation prior to nesting may positively influence nest survival.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Assessing environmental change associated with early Eocene hyperthermals in the Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

Eocene transient global warming events (hyperthermals) can provide insight into a future warmer world. While much research has focused on the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), hyperthermals of a smaller magnitude can be used to characterize climatic responses over different magnitudes of forcing. This study identifies two events, namely the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2 and H2), in shallow marine sediments of the Eocene-aged Salisbury Embayment of Maryland, based on magnetostratigraphy, calcareous nannofossil, and dinocyst biostratigraphy, as well as the recognition of negative stable carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) in biogenic calcite. We assess local environmental change in the Salisbury Embayment, utilizing clay mineralogy, marine palynology, δ 18 O of biogenic calcite, and biomarker paleothermometry (TEX 86 ). Paleotemperature proxies show broad agreement between surface water and bottom water temperature changes. However, the timing of the warming does not correspond to the CIE of the ETM2 as expected from other records, and the highest values are observed during H2, suggesting factors in addition to p CO 2 forcing have influenced temperature changes in the region. The ETM2 interval exhibits a shift in clay mineralogy from smectite-dominated facies to illite-rich facies, suggesting hydroclimatic changes but with a rather dampened weathering response relative to that of the PETM in the same region. Organic walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages show large fluctuations throughout the studied section, none of which seem systematically related to CIE warming. These observations are contrary to the typical tight correspondence between climate change and assemblages across the PETM, regionally and globally, and ETM2 in the Arctic Ocean. The data do indicate very warm and (seasonally) stratified conditions, likely salinity-driven, across H2. The absence of evidence for strong perturbations in local hydrology and nutrient supply during ETM2 and H2, compared to the PETM, is consistent with the less extreme forcing and the warmer pre-event baseline, as well as the non-linear response in hydroclimates to greenhouse forcing.

Atlantic Coastal Plain↗

USGS1997

Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models. 2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters. 3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates. 4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity. 5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring. 6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years. 7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more strongly, especially in colder or wetter climates.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2023

Sierra Nevada amphibians demonstrate stable occupancy despite precipitation volatility in the early 21st Century

Climate can have a strong influence on species distributions, and amphibians with different life histories might be affected by annual variability in precipitation in different ways. The Sierra Nevada of California, United States, experienced some of the driest and wettest years on record in the early 21st Century, with variability in annual precipitation predicted to increase with climate change. We examined the relationship between adult occupancy dynamics of three high elevation anurans and site and annual variation in measures of winter severity, summer wetness, and cumulative drought. We further evaluated how these weather conditions affected the probability that each species would reproduce, conditional on their occurrence at a site. We found that although different aspects of weather affected the occupancy dynamics of each species differently, adult occupancy probabilities were generally stable throughout our 15-year study period. The probability of reproduction, although slightly more variable than adult occupancy, was similarly stable throughout the study. Although occurrence of the three species was resilient to recent extremes in precipitation, more detailed demographic study would inform the extent to which amphibian populations will remain resilient to increasing severity, duration, and frequency of drought and flood cycles.

California↗

USGS2024

Variability in weather and site properties affect fuel and fire behavior following fuel treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe.

Fuel-treatments targeting shrubs and fire-prone exotic annual grasses (EAGs) are increasingly used to mitigate increased wildfire risks in arid and semiarid environments, and understanding their response to natural factors is needed for effective landscape management. Using field-data collected over four years from fuel-break treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe, we asked 1) how the outcomes of EAG and sagebrush fuel treatments varied with site biophysical properties, climate, and weather, and 2) how predictions of fire behavior using the Fuel Characteristic Classification System fire model related to land-management objectives of maintaining fire behavior expected of low-load, dry-climate grasslands. Generalized linear mixed effect modeling with build-up model selection was used to determine best-fit models, and marginal effects plots to assess responses for each fuel type. EAG cover decreased as antecedent-fall precipitation increased and increased as antecedent-spring temperatures and surface soil clay contents increased. Herbicides targeting EAGs were less effective where pre-treatment EAG cover was >40 % and antecedent spring temperatures were >9.5 °C. Sagebrush cover was inversely related to soil clay content, especially where clay contents were >17 %. Predicted fire behavior exceeded management objectives under 1) average fire weather conditions when EAG or sagebrush cover was >50 % or >26 %, respectively, or 2) extreme fire weather conditions when EAG or sagebrush cover was >10 % or >8 %, respectively. Consideration of the strong effects of natural variability in site properties and antecedent weather can help in justifying, planning and implementing fuel-treatments.

Idaho, Oregon↗

USGS2009

Acid rock drainage and climate change

Rainfall events cause both increases and decreases in acid and metals concentrations and their loadings from mine wastes, and unmined mineralized areas, into receiving streams based on data from 3 mines sites in the United States and other sites outside the US. Gradual increases in concentrations occur during long dry spells and sudden large increases are observed during the rising limb of the discharge following dry spells (first flush). By the time the discharge peak has occurred, concentrations are usually decreased, often to levels below those of pre-storm conditions and then they slowly rise again during the next dry spell. These dynamic changes in concentrations and loadings are related to the dissolution of soluble salts and the flushing out of waters that were concentrated by evaporation. The underlying processes, pyrite oxidation and host rock dissolution, do not end until the pyrite is fully weathered, which can take hundreds to thousands of years. These observations can be generalized to predict future conditions caused by droughts related to El Ni??o and climate change associated with global warming. Already, the time period for dry summers is lengthening in the western US and rainstorms are further apart and more intense when they happen. Consequently, flushing of inactive or active mine sites and mineralized but unmined sites will cause larger sudden increases in concentrations that will be an ever increasing danger to aquatic life with climate change. Higher average concentrations will be observed during longer low-flow periods. Remediation efforts will have to increase the capacity of engineered designs to deal with more extreme conditions, not average conditions of previous years.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗

USGS2024

On the uncertain intensity estimate of the 1859 Carrington storm

A study is made of the intensity of the Carrington magnetic storm of September 1859 as inferred from visual measurements of horizontal-component geomagnetic disturbance made at the Colaba observatory in India. Using data from modern observatories, a lognormal statistical model of storm intensity is developed, to characterize the maximum-negative value of the storm-time disturbance index (maximum – Dst) versus geomagnetic disturbance recorded at low-latitude observatories during magnetic storms. With this model and a recently published presentation of the Colaba data, the most likely maximum – Dst of the Carrington storm and its credibility interval are estimated. A related model is used to examine individual Colaba disturbance values reported for the Carrington storm. Results indicate that only about one in a million storms with maximum – Dst like the Carrington storm would result in local disturbance greater than that reported from Colaba. This indicates that either the Colaba data were affected by magnetospheric-ionospheric current systems in addition to the ring current, or there might be something wrong with the Colaba data. If the most extreme Colaba disturbance value is included in the analysis, then, of all hypothetical storms generating the hourly average disturbance recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm, the median maximum – Dst = 964 nT, with a 68% credibility interval of [855,1087] nT. If the most extreme Colaba disturbance value is excluded from the analysis, then the median maximum – Dst = 866 nT, with a 68% credibility interval of [768,977] nT. The widths of these intervals indicate that estimates of the occurrence frequency of Carrington-class storms are very uncertain, as are related estimates of risk for modern technological systems.

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate↗

USGS1971

An evaluation of procedures used in computing chemical denudation rates

Computations of chemical denudation rates (that is, the average rate of lowering of the earth's crust by chemical processes) should be based only upon those components of dissolved loads of streams that are derived from chemical weathering of rocks and soils, even though identification of those components is difficult and imprecise. Past computations of chemical denudation rates exaggerated by 1.4 to 2.4 times the significance of this process because they were calculated from total dissolved loads. Identification of separate denudation and nondenudation components in a water analysis can be done most readily for streams in crystalline silicate rock terrane where commonly 25 to 55 percent of the dissolved solids are HCO 3 −1 , SO 4 −2 , Cl −1 , and NO 3 −1 that cannot be derived from the underlying rock; instead these ions are derived either directly from the atmosphere or from atmosphere-biosphere interactions. Most of the remaining solutes are derived from chemical weathering or rainfall, or both. Existing data are often insufficient to separate these two components, but atmospheric contributions to dissolved loads of dilute natural waters are substantial. The commonly observed increased concentration of dissolved solids in chemically polluted rivers is produced by concentration of natural dissolved loads by evaporation, and by addition of solutes not present in natural waters. Concentration of natural solutes represents a modification of natural denudation processes that does not change the rate of denudation. Addition of new solutes represents man-induced, accelerated chemical denudation. Extrapolation of modern chemical denudation rates to geologic situations is extremely imprecise because of uncertainties in assessing man's influence on present dissolved loads, in reconstructing the number and magnitude of past climatic changes, and in evaluating the effects of evolving flora and fauna.

Bulletin of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2018

Combining multiple sources of data to inform conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations

Conservation of small populations is often based on limited data from spatially and temporally restricted studies, resulting in management actions based on an incomplete assessment of the population drivers. If fluctuations in abundance are related to changes in weather, proper management is especially important, because extreme weather events could disproportionately affect population abundance. Conservation assessments, especially for vulnerable populations, are aided by a knowledge of how extreme events influence population status and trends. Although important for conservation efforts, data may be limited for small or vulnerable populations. Integrated population models maximize information from various sources of data to yield population estimates that fully incorporate uncertainty from multiple data sources while allowing for the explicit incorporation of environmental covariates of interest. Our goal was to assess the relative influence of population drivers for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) in the core of its range, western and southern Kansas, USA. We used data from roadside lek count surveys, nest monitoring surveys, and survival data from telemetry monitoring combined with climate (Palmer drought severity index) data in an integrated population model. Our results indicate that variability in population growth rate was most influenced by variability in juvenile survival. The Palmer drought severity index had no measurable direct effects on adult survival or mean number of offspring per female; however, there were declines in population growth rate following severe drought. Because declines in population growth rate occurred at a broad spatial scale, declines in response to drought were likely due to decreases in chick and juvenile survival rather than emigration outside of the study area. Overall, our model highlights the importance of accounting for environmental and demographic sources of variability, and provides a thorough method for simultaneously evaluating population demography in response to long-term climate effects.

The Auk↗

USGS2023

Peak Cenozoic warmth enabled deep-sea sand deposition

The early Eocene (~ 56–48 million years ago) was marked by peak Cenozoic warmth and sea levels, high CO 2 , and largely ice-free conditions. This time has been described as a period of increased continental erosion and silicate weathering. However, these conclusions are based largely on geochemical investigation of marine mudstones and carbonates or study of intermontane Laramide basin settings. Here, we evaluate the marine coarse siliciclastic response to early Paleogene hothouse climatic and oceanographic conditions. We compile an inventory of documented sand-rich (turbidite) deep-marine depositional systems, recording 59 instances of early Eocene turbidite systems along nearly all continental margins despite globally-elevated sea levels. Sand-rich systems were widespread on active margins (42 instances), but also on passive margins (17 instances). Along passive margins, 13 of 17 early Eocene systems are associated with known Eocene-age fluvial systems, consistent with a fluvial clastic response to Paleogene warming. We suggest that deep-marine sedimentary basins preserve clastic records of early Eocene climatic extremes. We also suggest that in addition to control by eustasy and tectonism, climate-driven increases in sediment supply (e.g., drainage integration, global rainfall, denudation) may significantly contribute to the global distribution and volume of coarse-grained deep-marine deposition despite high sea level.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2010

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold, temperature); and. (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-y.r periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators. ?? 2010 by the Ecological society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

Bioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i

Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (T min , T mean , T max ) and mean precipitation (P mean ) data at 250 m resolution. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We summarized the monthly data from these two climate projections into a suite of 19 standard bioclimatic variables that provide detailed information about annual and seasonal mean climatic conditions for the Hawaiian Islands. These bioclimatic variables are available for three climate scenarios: baseline climate (1990-2009) and future climate (2080-2099) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (IPRC projections only) and RCP 8.5 (both IPRC and NCAR projections) climate scenarios. The resulting dataset provides a more robust set of climate products that can be used for modeling purposes, impact studies, and management planning.

Hawaii↗