SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “The Journal of Wildlife Management”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS1996

Shorebird use of South Carolina managed and natural coastal wetlands

While many migrating and wintering shorebird (Charadriiformes) species face declines in quality and quantity of natural stopover sites, diked wetlands managed for shorebirds may provide supplemental habitat. We describe an integrative shorebird-waterfowl management strategy used at Tom Yawkey Wildlife Center on South Island, South Carolina, during 3 winter-spring seasons (1991-93). We compared shorebird use and invertebrate density between diked, managed wetlands and adjacent natural coastal mudflat areas. About 3,000 shorebirds overwintered each year at the site. Migration numbers peaked at 15,000-19,000 during late May. In 1991, shorebird density and absolute numbers were higher ( P < 0.05) in managed wetlands at high tide than natural mudflats at low tide. In 1993, we counted shorebird density at low tide both in managed wetlands and Mother Norton Shoals, the largest natural area. During February, shorebird frequency was higher in Mother Norton Shoals and lower in managed wetlands than expected values based on area ( P < 0.005). In contrast, from March to May, shorebird frequency was higher in managed wetlands and lower in natural mudflats than expected ( P < 0.005 for each month). Invertebrate density from March to May was generally greater in managed wetlands than at Mother Norton Shoals, which may explain shorebird preference during that time. Greater invertebrate density did not explain the pattern in February. Mean water depth in managed wetlands for each shorebird species was <5 cm except for American avocet ( Recurvirostra americana ) which used deeper water ( x̄ = 8.4 cm, SD = 4.5). Results indicate that an integrative shorebird-waterfowl management strategy provides supplemental shorebird habitat at high tide, and managed wetlands can be preferred to local natural mudflat areas at low tide.

South Carolina↗

USGS2022

Seasonal resource selection and movement ecology of free-ranging horses in the western United States

Understanding factors driving resource selection and habitat use of different species is an important component of management and conservation. Feral horses ( Equus caballus ) are free ranging across various vegetation types in the western United States, yet few studies have quantified their resource selection and seasonal use. We conducted a study to determine effects of vegetation community, distance to water, and topographic variables on seasonal resource selection in 2 feral horse populations in Great Basin sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of west-central Utah, USA: Conger Herd Management Area (HMA) and Frisco HMA. We deployed global positioning system (GPS) radio-collars on 38 female horses and GPS-transmitters braided and glued into the tail hair of 14 males, collecting locations every 2 hours for 1–4 years between 2016 and 2020. We calculated home range size and core use area of social groups (harems) and bachelor males using auto-correlated kernel density estimators for each biologically defined season (breeding, fall, and winter) per study year. We examined seasonal home range size and overlap of harem groups and bachelor males and compared movement speed of bachelors and harems among seasons. We determined seasonal resource selection in a use-availability framework using resource selection functions. We hypothesized that horses would select for areas of high herbaceous vegetation, that water would be a key variable in resource selection models like other equids, and home range size in winter would be largest because horses can eat snow for hydration and could therefore roam farther from surface water. Mean annual home range size was 103.12 ± 37.38 km 2 (SD) for Conger harems and 117.47 ± 32.75 km 2 for Frisco harems. At Conger there was no difference in home range size between harem groups and bachelor males, but home range size was smaller in winter than other seasons, whereas winter home range size at Frisco was larger than other seasons. Bachelor males moved at higher speeds than harems during all seasons, and harem groups from both populations had lower movement speeds in winter. Harem groups had distinct winter ranges with little overlap on breeding season ranges. In both populations, all horses selected for herbaceous vegetation types and avoided forest relative to shrubland throughout the year. Harems at Frisco were consistently located closer to water sources, whereas selection for water sources by Conger harems varied seasonally, with winter having the lowest selection. Harem groups at Conger had an average of 10.6% of their home ranges outside the HMA boundary and Frisco harems had up to 66.8% outside, likely because of the horseshoe shape of Frisco HMA in which shrub meadows (foraging areas) comprise the horseshoe center, which is outside the HMA. Our results highlight the importance of water sources, which were a key predictor of horse movement patterns in our study. We emphasize the utility of telemetry devices to understand resource selection of feral horses at a fine scale, enabling management to be more targeted and facilitate planning.

Utah↗

USGS2010

Survival rates of female greater sage-grouse in autumn and winter in Southeastern Oregon

We estimated survival rates of 135 female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on 3 study areas in southeastern Oregon, USA during autumn and winter for 3 years. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to test for differences among study areas and years, investigate the potential influence of weather, and compute estimates of overwinter survival. We found no evidence for differences in survival rates among study areas, which was contrary to our original hypothesis. There also were no declines in survival rates during fallwinter, but survival rates varied among years and time within years. Average survival rate from October through February was 0.456 (SE 0.062). The coefficient of variation for this estimate was 13.6% indicating good precision in our estimates of survival. We found strong evidence for an effect of weather (i.e., mean daily min. temp, extreme min. temp, snow depth) on bi-weekly survival rates of sage-grouse for 2 of the study areas in one year. Extremely low (<-15?? C) temperatures over an 8-week period and accumulation of snow had a negative effect on survival rates during the winter of 19901991 on the 2 study areas at the higher (>1,500 m) elevations. In contrast, we found no evidence for an influence of weather on the low-elevation study area or during the winters of 19891990 and 19911992. Extreme weather during winter can cause lower survival of adult female sage-grouse, so managers should be aware of these potential effects and reduce harvest rates accordingly.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1966

Fall food habits of wood ducks from Lake Marion, South Carolina

A total of 108 stomachs of wood ducks ( Aix sponsa ) collected from hunters on the upper end of Lake Marion, South Carolina, between November 29 and December 6, 1961, were examined for information on food habits. Six plants made up over 98 percent of the total volume. Five were tree fruits: water and pin oak ( Quercus nigra and Q. palustris ), baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum ), sweetgum ( Liquidambar styraciflua ), and water hickory ( Carya aquatica ). The sixth important food was corn ( Zea mays ). In areas being managed for wood ducks and timber, therefore, these tree species should not be removed.

South Carolina↗

USGS1984

Contaminant concentrations in manatees in Florida

The status of the endangered manatee ( Trichehus manatus ) in relation to organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, mercury, lead, cadmium, copper, iron, and selenium was investigated in Florida from 1977 to 1981. Concentrations of organochlorines in blubber, mercury in muscle and liver, lead in liver, and lead and cadmium in kidneys did not indicate high exposure to these contaminants. Only cadmium in kidneys showed a positivde correlation with relative age. Copper concentrations in livers of these aquatic herbivores were significantly elevated in areas of high herbicidal copper usage after adjustment for significant age-related effects. Liver copper concentrations comparable to those associated with toxic effects in some domestic species were found in manatees from areas of high copper herbicide use. The use of copper herbicides for control of aquatic plants should be carefully managed in areas used intensively by manatees.

Florida↗

USGS1992

Yellowstone grizzly bear mortality, human habituation, and whitebark pine seed crops

The Yellowstone grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) population may be extirpated during the next 100-200 years unless mortality rates stabilize and remain at acceptable low levels. Consequently, we analyzed relationships between Yellowstone grizzly bear mortality and frequency of human habituation among bears and size of the whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) seed crop. During years of large seed crops, bears used areas within 5 km of roads and 8 km of developments half as intensively as during years of small seed crops because whitebark pine's high elevation distribution is typically remote from human facilities. On average, management trappings of bears were 6.2 times higher, mortality of adult females 2.3 times higher, and mortality of subadult males 3.3 times higher during years of small seed crops. We hypothesize that high mortality of adult females and subadult males during small seed crop years was a consequence of their tendency to range closest (of all sex-age cohorts) to human facilities; they also had a higher frequency of human habituation compared with adult males. We also hypothesize that low morality among subadult females during small seed crop years was a result of fewer energetic stressors compared with adult females and greater familiarity with their range compared with subadult males; mortality was low even though they ranged close to humans and exhibited a high frequency of human habituation. Human-habituated and food-conditioned bears were 2.9 times as likely to range within 4 km of developments and 3.1 times as often killed by humans compared with nonhabituated bears. We argue that destruction of habituated bears that use native foods near humans results in a decline in the overall ability of bears to use available habitat; and that the number and extent of human facilities in occupied grizzly bear habitat needs to be minimized unless habituated bears are preserved and successful ways to manage the associated risks to humans are developed.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Estimating occupancy probability of moose using hunter survey data

Monitoring rare species can be difficult, especially across large spatial extents, making conventional methods of population monitoring costly and logistically challenging. Citizen science has the potential to produce observational data across large areas that can be used to monitor wildlife distributions using occupancy models. We used citizen science (i.e., hunter surveys) to facilitate monitoring of moose ( Alces alces ) populations, an especially important endeavor because of their recent apparent declines in the northeastern and upper midwestern regions of the United States. To better understand patterns of occurrence of moose in New York, we used data collected through an annual survey of approximately 11,000 hunters between 2012 and 2014 that recorded detection–non-detection data of moose and other species. We estimated patterns of occurrence of moose in relation to land cover characteristics, climate effects, and interspecific interactions using occupancy models to analyze spatially referenced moose observations. Coniferous and deciduous forest with low prevalence of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) had the highest probability of moose occurrence. This study highlights the potential of data collected using citizen science for understanding the spatial distribution of low-density species across large spatial extents and providing key information regarding where and when future research and management activities should be focused.

New York↗

USGS2021

Contrasting patterns of demography and population viability among gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) populations at the species’ northern range edge

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris ) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Alabama↗

USGS2015

Spatially explicit modeling of blackbird abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region

Knowledge of factors influencing animal abundance is important to wildlife biologists developing management plans. This is especially true for economically important species such as blackbirds (Icteridae), which cause more than $100 million in crop damages annually in the United States. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the National Land Cover Dataset, and the National Climatic Data Center, we modeled effects of regional environmental variables on relative abundance of 3 blackbird species (red-winged blackbird, Agelaius phoeniceus ; yellow-headed blackbird, Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus ; common grackle, Quiscalus quiscula ) in the Prairie Pothole Region of the central United States. We evaluated landscape covariates at 3 logarithmically related spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and modeled weather variables at the 100,000-ha scale. We constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations. We fit models with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both landscape and weather variables contributed strongly to predicting blackbird relative abundance (95% credibility interval did not overlap 0). Variables with the strongest associations with blackbird relative abundance were the percentage of wetland area and precipitation amount from the year before bird surveys were conducted. The influence of spatial scale appeared small—models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. This large-scale study elucidated regional effects of weather and landscape variables, suggesting that management strategies aimed at reducing damages caused by these species should consider the broader landscape, including weather effects, because such factors may outweigh the influence of localized conditions or site-specific management actions. The regional species distributional models we developed for blackbirds provide a tool for understanding these broader landscape effects and guiding wildlife management practices to areas that are optimally beneficial. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Iowa, Minnesotta, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota↗

USGS2010

Distribution and habitat use of king rails in the Illinois and Upper Mississippi River valleys

The migratory population of the king rail ( Rallus elegans ) has declined dramatically during the past 40 years, emphasizing the need to identify habitat requirements of this species to help guide conservation efforts. To assess distribution and habitat use of king rails along the Illinois and Upper Mississippi valleys, USA, we conducted repeated call-broadcast surveys at 83 locations in 2006 and 114 locations in 2007 distributed among 21 study sites. We detected king rails at 12 survey locations in 2006 and 14 locations in 2007, illustrating the limited distribution of king rails in this region. We found king rails concentrated at Clarence Cannon National Wildlife Refuge, an adjacent private Wetlands Reserve program site, and B. K. Leach Conservation Area, which were located in the Mississippi River floodplain in northeast Missouri. Using Program PRESENCE, we estimated detection probabilities and built models to identify habitat covariates that were important in king rail site occupancy. Habitat covariates included percentage of cover by tall (> 1 m) and short (<= 1 m) emergent vegetation, percentage of cover of woody vegetation, and interspersion of water and vegetation ( 2007 only) within 50 m of the survey location. Detection probability was 0.43 (SE = 0.12) in 2006 and 0.35 (SE = 0.03) in 2007 and was influenced by observer identity and percentage of cover by tall herbaceous vegetation. Site occupancy was 0.11 (SE = 0.04) in 2006 and 0.14 (SE = 0.04) in 2007 and was negatively influenced most by percentage of cover by woody vegetation. In addition, we found that interspersion of vegetation and water was positively related to occupancy in 2007. Thus, nesting king rails used wetlands that were characterized by high water-vegetation interspersion and little or no cover by woody vegetation. Our results suggest that biologists can improve king rail habitat by implementing management techniques that reduce woody cover and increase vegetation-water interspersion in wetlands.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1963

Disease and infection in the Tetraonidae

Disease is one of many factors advanced to explain the fluctuations of grouse populations, but no profound study of natural disease losses in Tetraonidae exists. The literature contains frequent references to THE grouse disease, although many potential pathogens are listed in numerous surveys and limited investigations, and the relevant data indicate that no single etiologic agent is universally responsible for disease in grouse. Few experimental infections or related studies on parasite biology have been attempted. Well-trained personnel and specialized facilities are required for research and analysis (1) to develop new methods of interpretation to be used with existing census techniques, (2) to conduct intensive studies of ecological factors of host and habitat, and (3) to establish base lines for recognition of deviations from the norm. Disease in wildlife can be controlled only through management procedures based on information concerning the biology of pathogens, hosts, and environments. It cannot be studied as a separate entity if its impact on survival or population fluctuations of grouse is to be correctly assessed.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2025

Detection of deer at remote camera sites in relation to snow conditions

In the rain-snow transition zone of the Pacific Northwest, climate change is expected to alter the incidence of rain-on-snow and freeze-thaw events, which will change snow density and hardness dynamics. In winter, the ability of economically and ecologically important wildlife species, such as deer ( Odocoileus spp.), to efficiently move through the landscape and access forage is mediated by snow conditions. Therefore, snow properties such as density and hardness can directly affect how energetically costly it is for these animals to survive. However, little is known about whether and how ungulates use habitats based on snow density and hardness. We deployed a stratified network of remote camera stations in complex forested terrain in Latah County, Idaho, USA, to remotely measure snow depth and detect deer. We also collected snow density and hardness measurements throughout the winter. We used these data to determine the degree to which the probability of deer presence at cameras could be explained by snow conditions and air temperature. Snow depth and density had negative relationships with the probability of deer presence, while ram resistance (a proxy for snow hardness) had a marginal positive effect. We were able to estimate snow conditions important to deer in winter 2020–2021 primarily using data obtained from cameras. This provides an important proof-of-concept that can be applied at different sites and climate conditions to gain a deeper understanding of how deer are affected by snowpack properties. These methods can be used by managers to determine how ungulates are affected by snow depth, density, and hardness collectively and subsequently inform ungulate management in a changing climate.

Idaho↗

USGS2020

Winter versus summer habitat selection in a threatened ground squirrel

Hibernation is a strategy many species employ to survive periods of thermal stress or resource shortage (e.g., harsh thermal conditions, food limitations) and habitat requirements of hibernating species may differ between summer (the active season) and winter (during hibernation). Accounting for seasonal differences in habitat affinities will help ensure that management actions are more beneficial and land-use policies are more appropriate. The northern Idaho ground squirrel ( Urocitellus brunneus ) is a federally listed threatened species that is in decline and hibernates for approximately 8 months per year. We collared northern Idaho ground squirrels in Adams County, Idaho from 2013–2017. The majority of northern Idaho ground squirrels we collared selected hibernacula outside of the areas they used during the active season. Furthermore, habitat features of hibernacula locations differed from habitat features of active-season areas. Hibernacula locations had greater canopy closure compared to active-season locations (36.9% and 7.0% canopy closure, respectively) and hibernaculum habitat features (particularly distance to nearest log) influenced overwinter survival. Our results suggest that recovery efforts for northern Idaho ground squirrels should include protection and management for the full range of habitat conditions used throughout summer and winter. More broadly, we emphasize the need to identify and protect habitat during all seasons because habitat requirements can differ substantially during different portions of an animal's annual cycle and effective conservation will require management of year-round habitat needs.

Idaho↗

USGS2011

Nest success of grassland sparrows on reclaimed surface mines

Grasslands resulting from surface mine reclamation support grassland songbird populations in several midwestern and eastern states in the United States, especially where reclaimed mines are large (>1,000ha). However, most reclaimed surface mines in Pennsylvania are small (<200ha), and nest success is unknown. We evaluated nest success of grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum), Henslow's (A. henslowii), and Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) on 4 reclaimed surface mines (50-180ha) in western Pennsylvania, USA from 2006 to 2007. Overall nest success based on mean covariate values was 0.435 (95% CI = 0.376-0.504) for grasshopper sparrows, 0.396 (95% CI = 0.295-0.533) for Henslow's sparrows, and 0.158 (95% CI = 0.063-0.392) for Savannah sparrows. These estimates of nest success are comparable to those on larger reclaimed mines and other habitats. Grasshopper and Henslow's sparrow nests that were well concealed were less likely to fail than highly visible nests (??visible = -0.028, CI = -0.051 to -0.005 for grasshopper sparrows; ??visible = -0.063, CI = -0.112 to -0.014 for Henslow's sparrows), and nests in areas with surrounding deep litter were more likely to fail than nests in areas with shallow litter (??litterD = -0.145, CI = -0.335 to 0.045 for grasshopper sparrows; ??litterD = -0.676, CI = -1.187 to -0.116 for Henslow's sparrows). Savannah sparrow nests in areas with high visual obstruction by vegetation were less likely to fail than nests in areas with sparse and short vegetation (??VisOb = 0.048, CI = 0.006-0.091). Daily probability of survival for grasshopper sparrow nests was greatest early and late in the breeding season, and Savannah sparrow nest survival followed a decreasing linear trend. Nest survival of Henslow's sparrows was greater on warm days (??temp = 0.197, CI = 0.014-0.379), whereas for Savannah sparrows nest survival decreased on warm days and on days with rain, but for Savannah sparrows confidence intervals of weather effects included zero (??temp = -0.098, CI = -0.246 to 0.050; ??rain = 3.13, CI = -14.19 to 20.45). We suggest that small reclaimed surface mine grasslands can provide valuable nesting habitat and could be important to the conservation of grassland bird populations. Because nest success can increase in the latter part of the nesting season, agricultural disturbances or management activities in mid- to late summer could adversely affect reproductive success. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2022

Secretive marsh bird habitat relationships at mid-continent spring migration stopover sites

Despite several secretive marsh bird (SMB) species being listed as critically imperiled throughout the mid-continent of North America, limited information on SMB distribution and habitat use within primary migratory corridors results in uncertainty on contributions of wetlands in mid-latitude states toward their annual cycle needs. Our objectives were to quantify temporal patterns of SMB wetland occupancy during spring migration at a mid-latitude state and evaluate the relationships between SMB colonization probability and water-level management practices, and the resulting habitat conditions during spring migration. We conducted a 2-year, dynamic occupancy study (2013–2014) that included 6 rounds of repeated call-back surveys to detect the presence of 5 SMB species (i.e., Virginia rail [ Rallus limicola ], sora [ Porzana carolina ], king rail [ R. elegans ], least bittern [ Ixobrychus exilis ], and American bittern [ Botaurus lentiginosus ]) during spring (Apr–Jun) on 107 wetlands across 8 conservation areas and 4 national wildlife refuges throughout Missouri, USA. We detected sora most frequently, followed by least bittern, American bittern, Virginia rail, and king rail. Coefficient estimates indicated colonization probability for all species was positively associated with emergent vegetation cover and negatively associated with amount of open water. Open water was the only variable in the best supported model explaining American bittern site colonization, to which they were negatively associated. Virginia rail colonization had a strong positive association with vegetation height, whereas least bittern and sora site colonization were influenced positively by water depth and agriculture, respectively. Based on the habitat associations within and among SMB species identified in this study, wetland managers can tailor management strategies to optimize spring migration habitat for single- or multi-species objectives.

Missouri↗

USGS2015

Combining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway

We combined data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey (AFBWS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate the number of wood ducks ( Aix sponsa ) in the United States portion of the Atlantic Flyway from 1993 to 2013. The AFBWS is a plot-based survey that covers most of the northern and central portions of the Flyway; when analyzed with adjustments for survey time of day effects, these data can be used to estimate population size. The BBS provides an index of wood duck abundance along roadside routes. Although factors influencing change in BBS counts over time can be controlled in BBS analysis, BBS indices alone cannot be used to derive population size estimates. We used AFBWS data to scale BBS indices for Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), basing the scaling factors on the ratio of estimated AFBWS population sizes to regional BBS indices for portions of BCRs that were common to both surveys. We summed scaled BBS results for portions of the Flyway not covered by the AFBWS with AFBWS population estimates to estimate a mean yearly total of 1,295,875 (mean 95% CI: 1,013,940–1,727,922) wood ducks. Scaling factors varied among BCRs from 16.7 to 148.0; the mean scaling factor was 68.9 (mean 95% CI: 53.5–90.9). Flyway-wide, population estimates from the combined analysis were consistent with alternative estimates derived from harvest data, and also provide population estimates within states and BCRs. We recommend their use in harvest and habitat management within the Atlantic Flyway.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ne↗

USGS1987

Survival and band recovery rates of sympatric American black ducks and mallards

Banding and recovery data from American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) and mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) banded in the same breeding or wintering areas over the same time periods were used to estimate annual survival and band recovery rates. Recovery rates, based on preseason bandings, were very similar for sympatric black ducks and mallards and exhibited similar patterns of year-to-year variation for the 2 species. Tests for differences between the species in annual survival rates yielded equivocal results. We tentatively conclude that annual survival rates of mallards generally were not higher than those of black ducks banded in the same areas. The apparent difference in population status between black ducks and eastern mallards does not seem to result from differences in mortality rate. Nevertheless, we should attempt to identify management practices that might increase survival probabilities of black ducks.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Long‐term trends in fall age ratios of black brant

Accurate estimates of the age composition of populations can inform past reproductive success and future population trajectories. We examined fall age ratios (juveniles:total birds) of black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ; brant) staging at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula, southwest Alaska, USA, 1963 to 2015. We also investigated variation in fall age ratios associated with sampling location, an index of flock size, survey effort, day of season, observer, survey platform (boat‐ or land‐based) and tide stage. We analyzed data using logistic regression models implemented in a Bayesian framework. Mean predicted fall age ratio controlling for survey effort, day of year, and temporal and spatial variation was 0.24 (95% CL = 0.23, 0.25). Overall trend in age ratios was −0.6% per year (95% CL = −1.3%, 0.2%), resulting in an approximate 26% decline in the proportion of juveniles over the study period. We found evidence for variation across a range of variables implying that juveniles are not randomly distributed in space and time within Izembek Lagoon. Age ratios varied by location within the study area and were highly variable among years. They decreased with the number of birds aged (an index of flock size) and increased throughout September before leveling off in early October and declining in late October. Age ratios were similar among tide stages and observers and were lower during boat‐based (offshore) than land‐based (nearshore) surveys. Our results indicate surveys should be conducted annually during early to mid‐October to ensure the entire population is present and available for sampling, and throughout Izembek Lagoon to account for spatiotemporal variation in age ratios. Sampling should include a wide range of flock sizes representative of their distribution and occur in flocks located near and off shore. Further research evaluating the cause of declining age ratios in the fall population is necessary to inform management and predict long‐term population dynamics of brant.

Alaska↗