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Use and interpretation of climate envelope models: a practical guide

This guidebook is intended to provide a practical overview of climate envelope modeling for conservation professionals and natural resource managers. The material is intended for people with little background or experience in climate envelope modeling who want to better understand and interpret models developed by others and the results generated by such models, or want to do some modeling themselves. This is not an exhaustive review of climate envelope modeling, but rather a brief introduction to some key concepts in the discipline. Readers interested in a more in-depth treatment of much of the material presented here are referred to an excellent book, Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction by Janet Franklin. Also, a recent review (Araújo & Peterson 2012) provides an excellent, though more technical, discussion of many of the issues dealt with here. Here we treat selected topics from a practical perspective, using minimal jargon to explain and illustrate some of the many issues that one has to be aware of when using climate envelope models. When we do introduce specialized terminology in the guidebook, we bold the term when it is first used; a glossary of these terms is included at the back of the guidebook.

Report

Mineral resource of the month: Iron and steel

Iron is one of the most abundant elements on Earth, but it does not occur in nature in a useful metallic form. Although ancient people may have recovered some iron from meteorites, it wasn’t until smelting was invented that iron metal could be derived from iron oxides. After the beginning of the Iron Age in about 1200 B.C., knowledge of iron- and steelmaking spread from the ancient Middle East through Greece to the Roman Empire, then to Europe and, in the early 17th century, to North America. The first successful furnace in North America began operating in 1646 in what is now Saugus, Mass. Introduction of the Bessemer converter in the mid-19th century made the modern steel age possible. Pig iron is a high-carbon alloy made by smelting iron ore in a blast furnace with carbonaceous material, typically coke, as a reducing agent. Limestone is added to the iron ore-coke charge as a fluxing agent to remove impurities. Steel is produced from pig iron by removing some of the carbon in a basic oxygen converter and adding several alloying elements, such as manganese, chromium, copper, nickel, titanium, molybdenum, tungsten and vanadium. Steel is also made by recycling ferrous scrap in an electric arc furnace. There are many grades of steel, but the three major types of steel are carbon, alloy and stainless. About 93 percent of the steel made in the United States is carbon steel, which contains a maximum 2 percent carbon. Applications are found in appliances, construction, shipbuilding, containers and packaging, as well as in the automotive, machinery and equipment industries. Alloy steel, about 5 percent of annual production, contains as much as 4 percent alloying elements. Special applications for alloy steel include use in machined parts and tool fabrication. Stainless steel, which accounts for about 2 percent of annual steel production, is formed by adding chromium and usually nickel to steel to make it highly corrosion-resistant. Since 2008, steelmaking capacity has greatly exceeded apparent steel consumption, primarily as a result of China’s rapid economic expansion and rapidly increasing capacity. This has resulted in an influx of steel products into the United States and other steelmaking countries that already have excess capacity. Demand by China’s steelmakers has also driven unprecedented increases in the prices of iron ore and metallurgical coal. In the short term, steelmaking capacity, globally and especially in China, is expected to continue to exceed steel consumption, with steel prices and production costs remaining stable.

Earth

Mineral resource of the month: Iron and steel

Iron is one of the most abundant elements on Earth, but it does not occur in nature in a useful metallic form. Although ancient people may have recovered some iron from meteorites, it wasn’t until smelting was invented that iron metal could be derived from iron oxides. After the beginning of the Iron Age in about 1200 B.C., knowledge of iron- and steelmaking spread from the ancient Middle East through Greece to the Roman Empire, then to Europe and, in the early 17th century, to North America. The first successful furnace in North America began operating in 1646 in what is now Saugus, Mass. Introduction of the Bessemer converter in the mid-19th century made the modern steel age possible.

Earth

Hydrology and Ecology of Freshwater Wetlands in Central Florida - A Primer

Freshwater wetlands are an integral part of central Florida, where thousands are distributed across the landscape. However, their relatively small size and vast numbers challenge efforts to characterize them collectively as a statewide water resource. Wetlands are a dominant landscape feature in Florida; in 1996, an estimated 11.4 million acres of wetlands occupied 29 percent of the area of the State. Wetlands represent a greater percentage of the land surface in Florida than in any other state in the conterminous United States. Statewide, 90 percent of the total wetland area is freshwater wetlands and 10 percent is coastal wetlands. About 55 percent of the freshwater wetlands in Florida are forested, 25 percent are marshes and emergent wetlands, 18 percent are scrub-shrub wetlands, and the remaining 2 percent are freshwater ponds. Freshwater wetlands are distributed differently in central Florida than in other parts of the State. In the panhandle and in northern Florida, there are fewer isolated wetlands than in the central and southern parts of the State, and few of those wetlands are affected by activities such as groundwater withdrawals. In southern Florida, the vast wetlands of the Everglades and the Big Cypress Swamp blanket the landscape and form contiguous shallow expanses of water, which often exhibit slow but continuous flow toward the southwestern coast. In contrast, the wetlands of central Florida are relatively small, numerous, mostly isolated, and widely distributed. In many places, wetlands are flanked by uplands, generating a mosaic of contrasting environments-unique wildlife habitat often adjacent to dense human development. As the population of central Florida increases, the number of residents living near wetlands also increases. Living in close proximity to wetlands provides many Floridians with an increased awareness of nature and an opportunity to examine the relationship between people and wetlands. Specifically, these residents can observe how wetlands are affected by human activities. Freshwater wetlands are unique and complex ecosystems defined by characteristic properties. Wetlands usually have standing water during at least part of the year, although water depths can vary from a few inches to as much as several feet from one wetland to another. The hydrologic behavior of wetlands is influenced by drainage basin characteristics, as well as by natural variations in climate. Wetlands in central Florida (especially forested wetlands) often have acidic waters that are darkly stained from organic substances released by decomposing leaves and other plant material. Wetlands are characterized by biogeochemical cycles in which vital elements such as carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and others are transformed as they move between wetland soils and sediments, the open water, and the atmosphere. Wetlands are populated with plants that can thrive under conditions of saturated soils and low dissolved-oxygen concentrations. The bottoms of many wetlands, especially marshes, are covered with decayed plant material that can accumulate over time to form brown peat or black muck soils. Wetlands are inhabited by animals that need standing water to complete some or all of their life cycles, and they also provide periodic food, water, and shelter for many other animals that spend most of their lives on dry land. The complex and interrelated components of wetlands directly affect one another and there are numerous feedback mechanisms.

Circular

Assessment of microbiological contamination of the Jacks Fork within the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri—phase I

The Ozark National Scenic Riverways (ONSR), the Nation's first scenic riverway, was created by an Act of Congress (Public Law 88-492) on August 24, 1964, for "the purpose of conserving and interpreting unique scenic and other natural values and objects of historic interest, including preservation of parts of the Current River and the Jacks Fork River in Missouri as free-flowing streams, preservation of springs and caves, management of wildlife, and provisions for use and enjoyment of the outdoor recreation resources thereof by the people of the United States" (National Park Service, 1981). The primary natural resources protected by the park are 134 miles of the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers. About 1.5 million people visit the ONSR annually to take advantage of excellent recreational opportunities, including canoeing, johnboating, swimming, fishing, tubing, camping, hiking, caving, horseback riding, and hunting.

Fact Sheet

Latency and geofence testing of wireless emergency alerts intended for the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America

ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast of the United States, attempts to provides crucial warnings before strong shaking occurs. However, because the alerts are triggered only when an earthquake is already in progress, and the alert latencies and delivery times are platform dependent, the time between these warnings and the arrival of shaking is variable. The ShakeAlert system uses, among other public alerting platforms like a mobile phone operating system, smartphone apps, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). IPAWS sends Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) informing people via their smartphones and other mobile devices about various events, such as natural hazards, child abductions, or public health information about COVID-19. However, little is known about the IPAWS delivery latencies. Given that people may have only a few seconds of notice after they receive an alert to take a protective action before they feel earthquake shaking, quantifying latencies is critical to understanding whether the IPAWS system is useful for EEW. In this study, we developed new methods to test the IPAWS distribution system's performance, both with devices in a controlled environment and as well as with a 2019 community-based feedback form, in Oakland and San Diego County, California, respectively. The controlled environment test used mobile phones (including smart and non-smart phones) and associated devices to determine alert receipt times; the community research form had participants self-report their receipt times. By triangulating the data between the controlled test environment and the community research, we determined the latency statistics as well as whether the geofence (the geographic area where the alert was intended to be sent) held broadly. We found that the latencies were similar between the two tests despite the large differences in population sizes. WEA messages were received within a median time frame of 6–12 s, and the geofence held with only a few exceptions. We use this latency to assess how the system would have performed in two large earthquakes, the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta and 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes, which both occurred near our WEA test locations. Our analysis revealed that had IPAWS been available during those earthquakes, particularly Loma Prieta, it would have provided crucial seconds of notice that damaging shaking was imminent in some locations relatively far from the epicenter. Further, we find affordable non-smart phones can receive WEAs as fast as smartphones. Finally, our new method can be used for latency and geospatial testing going forward for IPAWS and other similar alerting systems.

California

Effects of oil development in Arctic America

Large and important discoveries of petroleum were made in northern Alaska in 1968 . The reserves were estimated then to be perhaps as much as ten thousand million barrels. Subsequent exploration has shown the resources to be much greater than was estimated earlier. Many problems must be solved before petroleum from northern Alaska reaches the world's markets. These problems are of three types: 1 , those related to exploring, developing, and operating under the physical environments of the region; 2 , those having to do with people—both the native people and those brought in from lower latitudes—and 3 , those concerning the protection of the natural environments. The problems are great, but so also are the reserves of petroleum. To the extent that the problems are not solved, the cost of development and operation will be higher, the use of people will be expensive and unsatisfactory, and the natural environments will be threatened. The whole effort could be jeopardized on those grounds.

Biological Conservation

U.S. Geological Survey activities related to American Indians and Alaska Natives: Fiscal years 2007 and 2008

In the late 1800s, John Wesley Powell, the second director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), followed his interest in the tribes of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau and studied their cultures, languages, and surroundings. From that early time, the USGS has recognized the importance of Native knowledge and living in harmony with nature as complements to the USGS mission to better understand the Earth. Combining traditional ecological knowledge with empirical studies allows the USGS and Native American governments, organizations, and people to increase their mutual understanding and respect for this land. The USGS is the earth and natural science bureau within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and is not responsible for regulations or land management. Climate change is a major current issue affecting Native lives and traditions throughout the United States. Climate projections for the coming century indicate an increasing probability for more frequent and more severe droughts in the Southwest, including the Navajo Nation. Erosion has claimed Native homes in Alaska. Fish have become inedible due to diseases that turn their flesh mushy. Native people who rely on or who are culturally sustained by hunting, fishing, and using local plants are living with climate change now. The traditional knowledge of Native peoples enriches and confirms the work of USGS scientists. The results are truly synergistic-greater than the sum of their parts. Traditional ecological knowledge is respected and increasingly used in USGS studies-when the holders of that knowledge choose to share it. The USGS respects the rights of Native people to maintain their patrimony of traditional ecological knowledge. The USGS studies can help Tribes, Native organizations, and natural resource professionals manage Native lands and resources with the best available unbiased data and information that can be added to their traditional knowledge. Wise Native leaders have noted that traditional ecological knowledge includes the connections between Earth and her denizens. From this perspective, it is the connections among these ?relatives? that needs to be nurtured. This perspective on nature is finding new adherents among Natives and non-Natives as understanding of climate change and other environmental conditions deepens. Although this report uses the term ?resources,? the USGS, through its interdisciplinary research, acknowledges the interconnectedness of the Earth and the things that live upon it.

Circular

Temporal invariance of social-ecological catchments

Natural resources such as waterbodies, public parks, and wildlife refuges attract people from varying distances on the landscape, creating "social-ecological catchments." Catchments have provided great utility for understanding physical and social relationships within specific disciplines. Yet, catchments are rarely used across disciplines, such as its application to understand complex spatiotemporal dynamics between mobile human users and patchily distributed natural resources. We collected residence ZIP codes from 19,983 angler parties during 2014–2017 to construct seven angler–waterbody catchments in Nebraska, USA. We predicted that sizes of dense (10% utilization distribution) and dispersed (95% utilization distribution) angler–waterbody catchments would change across seasons and years as a function of diverse resource selection among mobile anglers. Contrary to expectations, we revealed that catchment size was invariant. We discuss how social (conservation actions) and ecological (low water quality, reduction in species diversity) conditions are expected to impact landscape patterns in resource use. We highlight how this simple concept and user-friendly technique can inform timely landscape-level conservation decisions within coupled social-ecological systems that are currently difficult to study and understand.

Ecological Applications

Visitor spending effects: assessing and showcasing America's investment in national parks

This paper provides an overview of the evolution, future, and global applicability of the U.S. National Park Service's (NPS) visitor spending effects framework and discusses the methods used to effectively communicate the economic return on investment in America's national parks. The 417 parks represent many of America's most iconic destinations: in 2016, they received a record 331 million visits. Competing federal budgetary demands necessitate that, in addition to meeting their mission to preserve unimpaired natural and cultural resources for the enjoyment of the people, parks also assess and showcase their contributions to the economic vitality of their regions and the nation. Key approaches explained include the original Money Generation Model (MGM) from 1990, MGM2 used from 2001, and the visitor spending effects model which replaced MGM2 in 2012. Detailed discussion explains the NPS's visitor use statistics system, the formal program for collecting, compiling, and reporting visitor use data. The NPS is now establishing a formal socioeconomic monitoring (SEM) program to provide a standard visitor survey instrument and a long-term, systematic sampling design for in-park visitor surveys. The pilot SEM survey is discussed, along with the need for international standardization of research methods.

Journal of Sustainable Tourism

Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program

The surface of the Earth is changing rapidly, at local, regional, national, and global scales, with significant repercussions for people, the economy, and the environment. Some changes have natural causes, such as wildland fires or hurricanes, while other changes on the land, such as resource extraction, agricultural practices, and urban growth, are human-induced processes. There are other types of changes that are a combination of natural and human-induced factors; landslides and floods, for example, are fundamentally natural processes that are often intensified or accelerated by human land use practices. Whatever their cause, land-surface changes can have profound environmental and economic impacts.

Fact Sheet

Guide to Louisiana's ground-water resources

Ground water is one of the most valuable and abundant natural resources of Louisiana. Of the 4-.4 million people who live in the State, 61 percent use ground water as a source for drinking water. Most industrial and rural users and half of the irrigation users in the State rely on ground water. Quantity, however, is not the only aspect that makes ground water so valuable; quality also is important for its use. In most areas, little or no water treatment is required for drinking water and industrial purposes. Knowledge of Louisiana's ground-water resources is needed to ensure proper development and protection of this valuable resource. This report is designed to inform citizens about the availability and quality of ground water in Louisiana. It is not intended as a technical reference; rather, it is a guide to ground water and the significant role this resource plays in the state. Most of the ground water that is used in the State is withdrawn from 13 aquifers and aquifer systems: the Cockfield, Sparta, and Carrizo-Wilcox aquifersin northern Louisiana; Chicot aquifer system, Evangeline aquifer, Jasper aquifer system, and Catahoula aquifer in central and southwestern Louisiana; the Chicot equivalent, Evangeline equivalent, and Jasper equivalent aquifer systems in southeastern Louisiana; and the MississippiRiver alluvial, Red River alluvial, and upland terrace aquifers that are statewide. Ground water is affected by man's activities on the land surface, and the major ground-water concerns in Louisiana are: (1) contamination from surface disposal of hazardous waste, agricultural chemicals, and petroleum products; (2) contamination from surface wastes and saltwater through abandoned wells; (3) saltwater encroachment; and (4) local overdevelopment. Information about ground water in Louisiana is extensive and available to the public. Several State and Federal agencies provide published and unpublished material upon request.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

Conference Paper

Controlling the spread of invasive species while sampling

Invasive species have a substantial impact on natural resource management. The economic cost of invasive species to people in the United States is an estimated US$137 billion annually (Pimental et al. 2000). The environmental cost is much greater and usually incalculable (Pimental et al. 2005). Nearly half of the plant and animal species federally listed in the United States' Endangered Species Act are threatened or endangered primarily as a consequence of invasive species that directly prey on native species or outcompete them for limited resources (Wilcove et al. 1998; Pimental et al. 2005) The result is reduced population numbers and, sometimes, local extinction of native plants and animals (Pimental at al. 2005). Such environmental damage is often irreparable. As natural resource managers, it is our responsibility to manage and conserve valuable natural resources. However, if our focus is limited to specific projects and tasks at hand, we may overlook the broader ramifications of our actions and unintentionally contribute to the invasive species problem. This chapter focuses on measures that should be taken to present, minimize, or control the spread of invasive species in the routine work we do as natural resource professionals. Inadvertently transporting potentially harmful organisms undermines our purposed as natural resource professionals. It is imperative that we understand that pathways that we create and strive to eliminate (when possible) or minimize the potential damage that may result from our actions. A combination of technologies, education, codes of conduct, and government overshot, as recommended by the Ecological Society of America, can prevent invasive species introductions from pathways that already exist (Lodge et al. 2006). In the long run, a purposeful prevention strategy for stopping unintentional species introductions will promote responsible natural resource management and will help us to achieve agency goals.

Book chapter

Quantifying the coastal hazard risk reduction benefits of coral reef restoration in the U.S. Virgin Islands

Coastal habitat restoration, especially of coral reef ecosystems, can significantly reduce the exposure of coastal communities to natural hazards and, consequently, the risk of wave-driven flooding. Likewise, reef degradation can increase coastal flood risks to people and property. In this study, the valuation of coral reefs in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI), along the coasts of St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas, demonstrated the social and economic benefits provided by these natural defenses. Across the territory, more than 481 people and $31.2 million of infrastructure were estimated to receive protection from coral reefs per year (2010 U.S. dollars). In 2017, Hurricanes Irma and Maria significantly damaged coral reefs throughout the archipelago. By combining engineering, ecological, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools, this study provided a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration projects could help rebuild these damaged habitats and decrease the risks from coastal hazards faced by USVI’s reef-fronted communities. Multiple restoration scenarios were considered in the analysis, two of which are detailed in this report. These include (1) ‘Ecological’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 0.25 m high and 25-m-wide reef, and (2) ‘Hybrid’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 1.25 m high and 5 m wide. There are many ways that such structures could be developed. In the hydrodynamic analyses, there are no assumptions about how the restoration is developed. Many practitioners of both coral (and oyster reef) restoration consider that a reef height of 0.25 m might be delivered from planting corals alone and that 1.25 m might require a combination of artificial structures and coral planting. In a third scenario, the analysis investigated the reduction of protection benefits that would occur through the reduction of 1 meter of naturally occurring reef height due to reef degradation. The reduction of protection due to the loss of reefs can also be interpreted as the protection value of the existing reefs. In all studied restoration scenarios, it was assumed that the planting of corals would enhance hydrodynamic roughness, effectively dissipating incident wave energy and reducing the potential for coastal flooding. A standardized approach was employed to strategically locate potential restoration projects along the entire linear extent of existing reefs bordering the USVI, and to identify where coral reef restoration could offer valuable benefits in flood reduction. Potential restoration projects were only located within the existing distribution of reefs across the region, even though numerous sites were positioned far offshore (2-3 km), and some were at relatively deep depths (up to 7 m). Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to delineate flood zones at a 10 m 2 resolution along the entire region's reef-lined shorelines for all the potential coral reef restoration scenarios. These were subsequently compared to flood zones without coral reef restoration. The potential reduction in coastal flood risk provided by coral reef restoration, and the protection value of existing reefs, were quantified utilizing the latest information available at the time of analysis from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. The change in Expected Annual Damages (EAD), a metric indicating the annual protection gained due to coral reef restoration, was calculated based on the damages associated with each storm probability. The findings suggest that the benefits of reef restoration are spatially variable within the USVI. In some areas, the analysis showed limited benefits from reef restoration, which may be attributed to the depth or offshore distances of proposed restoration sites. However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction. The annual flood risk reduction attributed to potential ‘ecological’ coral reef restoration in the USVI was 99 people and $6.1 million (2010 U.S. dollars). The Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (BCR) for this restoration approach was found to be larger than 1 (i.e., cost-effective) along 11% of the St. Croix coastline, 4.9% of the St. John coastline, and 8.7% of the St. Thomas coastline. This analysis offers stakeholders and decision-makers a spatially explicit and rigorous evaluation that illustrates how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration efforts in St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas could be instrumental to reducing coastal storm-induced flooding. Understanding areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could effectively reduce climate hazard-related risks is crucial to protect and enhance the resilience of coastal communities in USVI.

Report

Atlas of natural hazards in the Hawaiian coastal zone

The purpose of this report is to communicate to citizens and regulatory authorities the history and relative intensity of coastal hazards in Hawaii. This information is the key to the wise use and management of coastal resources. The information contained in this document,we hope,will improve the ability of Hawaiian citizens and visitors to safely enjoy the coast and provide a strong data set for planners and managers to guide the future of coastal resources. This work is largely based on previous investigations by scientific and engineering researchers and county, state, and federal offices and agencies. The unique aspect of this report is that, to the extent possible, it assimilates prior efforts in documenting Hawaiian coastal hazards and combines existing knowledge into a single comprehensive coastal hazard data set. This is by no means the final word on coastal hazards in Hawaii. Every hazardous phenomenon described here, and others such as slope failure and rocky shoreline collapse, need to be more carefully quantified, forecast, and mitigated. Our ultimate goal, of course, is to make the Hawaiian coast a safer place by educating the people of the state, and their leaders, about the hazardous nature of the environment. In so doing, we will also be taking steps toward improved preservation of coastal environments, because the best way to avoid coastal hazards is to avoid inappropriate development in the coastal zone. We have chosen maps as the medium for both recording and communicating the hazard history and its intensity along the Hawaiian coast.Two types of maps are used: 1) smallscale maps showing a general history of hazards on each island and summarizing coastal hazards in a readily understandable format for general use, and 2) a large-scale series of technical maps (1:50,000) depicting coastal sections approximately 5 to 7 miles in length with color bands along the coast ranking the relative intensity of each hazard at the adjacent shoreline.

Hawaii

Climate, sea level, and people - Changing South Florida's mangrove coast

South Florida’s coast is a land of contrasts that appeals to almost everyone, whether they seek out quiet natural environments along the mangrove waterways and in the wilderness of the Everglades or vibrant international culture in Miami. Yet this paradise is threatened by a number of forces – changing climate, rising sea level, and too many people, to name a few. Florida’s past is filled with stories of dramatic change and resiliency, if we look at the geologic record. It also hints at the role of climate alone, in the absence of significant sea level change, in shaping the mangrove coast. Using our knowledge of present-day processes, such as impacts of storms on the mangroves, combined with our interpretation of the past geologic record, is the best way to anticipate future changes. The question is, have humans altered this landscape so much that the species and habitats have lost their natural resiliency, and if they have, what will happen to the people and the unique environments of south Florida?

Florida

Fire history of the San Francisco East Bay region and implications for landscape patterns

The San Francisco East Bay landscape is a rich mosaic of grasslands, shrublands and woodlands that is experiencing losses of grassland due to colonization by shrubs and succession towards woodland associations. The instability of these grasslands is apparently due to their disturbance-dependent nature coupled with 20th century changes in fire and grazing activity. This study uses fire history records to determine the potential for fire in this region and for evidence of changes in the second half of the 20th century that would account for shrubland expansion. This region has a largely anthropogenic fire regime with no lightning-ignited fires in most years. Fire suppression policy has not excluded fire from this region; however, it has been effective at maintaining roughly similar burning levels in the face of increasing anthropogenic fires, and effective at decreasing the size of fires. Fire frequency parallels increasing population growth until the latter part of the 20th century, when it reached a plateau. Fire does not appear to have been a major factor in the shrub colonization of grasslands, and cessation of grazing is a more likely immediate cause. Because grasslands are not under strong edaphic control, rather their distribution appears to be disturbance-dependent, and natural lightning ignitions are rare in the region, I hypothesize that, before the entrance of people into the region, grasslands were of limited extent. Native Americans played a major role in creation of grasslands through repeated burning and these disturbance-dependent grasslands were maintained by early European settlers through overstocking of these range lands with cattle and sheep. Twentieth century reduction in grazing, coupled with a lack of natural fires and effective suppression of anthropogenic fires, have acted in concert to favor shrubland expansion.

International Journal of Wildland Fire