SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “National Hazards Observer”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS2002

Challenges in observational seismology

Earthquake seismology became a quantitative scientific discipline after instruments were developed to record seismic waves in the late 19th century ( Dewey and Byerly, 1969 ; Chapter 1 by Agnew). Earthquake seismology is essentially based on field observations. The great progress made in the past several decades was primarily due to increasingly plentiful and high-quality data that are readily distributed. Our ability to collect, process, and analyze earthquake data has been accelerated by advances in electronics, communications, computers, and software (see Chapter 85 edited by Snoke and Garcia-Fernandez). Instrumental observation of earthquakes has been carried out for a little over 100 years by seismic stations and networks of various sizes, from local to global scales (see Chapter 87 edited by Lahr and van Eck). The observed data have been used, for example, (1) to compute the source parameters of earthquakes, (2) to determine the physical properties of the Earth's interior, (3) to test the theory of plate tectonics , (4) to map active faults, (5) to infer the nature of damaging ground shaking, and (6) to carry out seismic hazard analysis. Construction of a satisfactory theory of the earthquake process has not yet been achieved within the context of physical laws. Good progress, however, has been made in building a physical foundation of the earthquake source process, partly as a result of research directed toward earthquake prediction. This chapter is intended for a general audience. Technical details are not given, but relevant references and chapters in this Handbook are referred to. The first part of this chapter presents a brief overview of the observational aspects of earthquake seismology, concentrating on instrumental observations of seismic waves generated by earthquakes (i.e., seismic monitoring), and readers are referred to Chapter 49 by Musson and Cecic for noninstrumental observations. A few key developments and practices are summarized by taking a general view, since many national and regional developments have been chronicled in national and institutional reports (see Chapter 79 edited by Kisslinger). In the latter part of this chapter, the nature of seismic monitoring and some challenges in observational seismology are discussed from a personal perspective. Comments of a technical or philosophical nature are given in the Notes at the end of the chapter, and they are referenced by superscript numbers in the text.

International Geophysics↗

USGS2012

New Zealand’s deadliest quake sounds alarm for cities on fault lines

The catastrophic Christ Church Earthquake is a strong reminder to engineers and scientists of the hazards pose by fault lines, both mapped and unknown, near major cities. In February 2011, the relatively moderate earthquake that struck the cities of Christchurch and Lyttleton in the Canterbury region of New Zealand's South Island surprised many with its destructive power. The magnitude 6.2 temblor killed 181 people, 118 of whom were killed in the collapse of a single building in the city center. The quake damaged or destroyed more than 100,000 buildings. It was the deadliest quake to strike the nation in 80 years-since the 1931 earthquake that struck the Napier and Hastings area of the North Island. The Christchurch quake was part of the aftershock sequence following the September 2010 magnitude 7.1 earthquake near Darfield, 40 kilometers west of the city. The Darfield earthquake was in a sparsely populated area, causing to loss of life. By contrast, the Christchurch earthquake was generated on a fault in close proximity to the city.

Christchurch↗

USGS2019

Pallid sturgeon basin-wide contaminants assessment

Pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), listed as endangered in 1990 under the federal Endangered Species Act (United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), 1990), have declined due to habitat loss, commercial fishing, and hybridization. Pollution in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers has to-date only received minor attention as a factor in the on-going decline of wild pallid sturgeon populations (Jacobson et al. 2016a; Bergman 2008). Pallid sturgeon experts and contaminant specialists conceived of the Pallid Sturgeon Basin-Wide Contaminants Assessment (Assessment) to identify potentially harmful contaminants (contaminants of concern), their distribution within pallid sturgeon habitat, and their effects on pallid sturgeon at the landscape level. Extant water quality and analytical chemistry data from samples of river water, sediment, and sturgeon tissues from past studies, assessments, or monitoring activities throughout the species’ range were used to establish a list of contaminants. The list includes: metal and non-metal elements, pesticides, organic industrial chemicals, hormones, nutrients, and other potential water quality contaminants. Environmental samples collected from January 1, 2001 through December 31, 2014, when available, were used for all evaluations. This report is effectively a screening level hazard assessment whereby contituents of concern that may pose a potential harm to pallid sturgeon have been identified. These constituents of concern warrant further examination to determine the level of risk they pose to pallid sturgeon. The Assessment process was one of comparing the existing environmental data for individual constituents to reference values for adverse effects on fish specifically or aquatic life generally. The product of the Assessment is a simplified summary that is geographically organized by pallid sturgeon management unit that generally categorizes each individual contaminant or water quality constituent according to operationally defined levels of concern. This hazard assessment identifies potential constituents of concern to pallid sturgeon and may support prioritization for future data collection and research to enable a quantitative risk assessment. Regional data density at spatial and temporal scales notwithstanding, the Assessment points to some generalities in contaminant concerns within and across management units. Metals but not pesticides are the predominant contaminant of concern in the Great Plains Management Unit (GPMU). In the Central Lowlands Management Unit (CLMU), selenium exceeds benchmark levels. Triazine herbicides are potentially of concern in all but the GPMU. Concentrations of legacy contaminants such as PCBs and DDT and its metabolites exceeded benchmarks in samples from the CLMU, Interior Highlands Mangement Unit (IHMU), and Coastal Plains Management Unit (CPMU), but local and national trends indicate environmental levels of these contaminants continue to decline. Observed concentrations of nutrients and indicators of nutrient pollution were above benchmark levels throughout the pallid sturgeon’s range; however, the significance for pallid sturgeon health specifically is unknown. Almost no information exists on contemporary contaminants of concern such as the natural and synthetic estrogens (estradiol, ethinyl estradiol, and estrone) or polybrominated diphenyls (PBDEs). There are considerable informational data gaps for contaminants throughout the species’ range. Water quality measurements were the most frequent data encountered whereas, sediment and tissue data were orders of magnitude less frequent. The paucity of sediment and tissue concentrations, particularly the latter, prevents any meaningful conclusions regarding adverse effects of these contaminants on the growth and reproduction of pallid sturgeon. However, the Assessment could form the basis for regional workshops with subject matter specialists to develop plans to evaluate the contaminants most likely to affect pallid sturgeon health.

Missouri River basin, Mississippi River basin↗

USGS2026

Ground-motion simulations for the 2024 Mw 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey, earthquake

Ground-motion simulations of notable earthquakes in the central and eastern United States are limited and typically assume one-dimensional (1D) Earth structure. In this study, we use a three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model to better constrain the depth and focal mechanism of the April 5th, 2024, moment magnitude 4.8 Tewksbury earthquake and investigate the spatial variability of earthquake ground motions and the effects of nearby sedimentary basins. We perform earthquake ground-motion simulations up to 0.5 Hz using the 3D spectral-element wave-propagation solver SPECFEM3D over a region 280-km wide by 260-km long by 77-km deep. Topography and subsurface geophysical structure are assigned using the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 200 m/s. We use earthquake time series from 13 broadband seismic stations in the region that have a uniform azimuthal distribution and epicentral distances ranging from 76 to 131 km to compare with synthetics and explore the effects of 1D versus 3D seismic structure on focal mechanism and depth solutions. Ground-motion intensity metrics are also presented relative to the NGA-East ground-motion models (GMMs) currently used in seismic hazard assessments for the region. We find that the 3D model, which reveals a wide spatial variability of period-dependent ground motions, yields better predictions of earthquake ground motions relative to the 1D model and the NGA-East ergodic ground-motion model, with 76 percent reduction of residual variance in observed ground motions averaged over 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-second periods. Use of the 3D model to solve for a focal mechanism yields a shallower focal depth at 4 km and a shallower east-dipping focal plane relative to the U.S. Geological Survey regional moment tensor and Global Centroid Moment Tensor. Our study demonstrates that use of 3D seismic velocity models can improve estimates of earthquake focal mechanisms, ground motions, and seismic hazard.

New Jersey↗

USGS2025

Numerical simulation of sound-side barrier-island inundation and breaching during Hurricane Dorian (2019)

Hurricane-induced morphological changes and associated community hazards along sandy, barrier-island coastlines have been studied primarily from the perspective of ocean-side attack by storm-driven ocean surge and large waves. Thus, our understanding of long-term barrier island morphological change focuses on beach erosion, overwash, and inlet formation. In contrast, outwash events with inundation from the sound side, such as one that occurred in Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina, USA during Hurricane Dorian (September 2019), are understudied. Studying such events can improve understanding of barrier island response and stability for a broader range of conditions. Here, we model the hydrodynamics and morphological evolution of a barrier island using a coupled wave-current-sediment transport modeling system. Wind-driven surge in Pamlico Sound led to overtopping from the sound side, which eroded outwash channels and transported sediment seaward into the nearshore. Simulations reproduce the channel features observed with aerial imagery and provide information not available from the remote-sensing observations, including channel depths (>2 m) and the fate of the eroded sand. We found that >99% of the eroded sand was deposited in the nearshore, within 1,000 m of the shoreline in depths <10 m, suggesting that the deposited sediment remains available for littoral transport and beach recovery. Simulations with combinations of coarse or fine sediment and vegetated or unvegetated landcover indicate that channel position did not vary with grain size or vegetation, while volume of erosion and channel morphology were more responsive to variations in grain size and less responsive to presence of vegetation.

North Carolina↗

USGS2010

Aviation response to a widely dispersed volcanic ash and gas cloud from the August 2008 eruption of Kasatochi, Alaska, USA

The extensive volcanic cloud from Kasatochi's 2008 eruption caused widespread disruptions to aviation operations along Pacific oceanic, Canadian, and U.S. air routes. Based on aviation hazard warnings issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, the Federal Aviation Administration, and Meteorological Service of Canada, air carriers largely avoided the volcanic cloud over a 5 day period by route modifications and flight cancellations. Comparison of time coincident GOES thermal infrared (TIR) data for ash detection with Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) ultraviolet data for SO 2 detection shows congruent areas of ash and gas in the volcanic cloud in the 2 days following onset of ash production. After about 2.5 days, the area of SO 2 detected by OMI was more extensive than the area of ash indicated by TIR data, indicating significant ash depletion by fall out had occurred. Pilot reports of visible haze at cruise altitudes over Canada and the northern United States suggested that SO 2 gas had converted to sulfate aerosols. Uncertain about the hazard potential of the aging cloud, airlines coped by flying over, under, or around the observed haze layer. Samples from a nondamaging aircraft encounter with Kasatochi's nearly 3 day old cloud contained volcanic silicate particles, confirming that some fine ash is present in predominantly gas clouds. The aircraft's exposure to ash was insufficient to cause engine damage; however, slightly damaging encounters with volcanic clouds from eruptions of Reventador in 2002 and Hekla in 2000 indicate the possibility of lingering hazards associated with old and/or diffuse volcanic clouds.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

A geographic information system tool to solve regression equations and estimate flow-frequency characteristics of Vermont Streams

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of streamflow are needed to safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures in or near streams. These estimates also are used for managing floodplains, identifying flood-hazard areas, and establishing flood-insurance rates, but may be required at ungaged sites where no observed flood data are available for streamflow-frequency analysis. This report describes equations for estimating flow-frequency characteristics at ungaged, unregulated streams in Vermont. In the past, regression equations developed to estimate streamflow statistics required users to spend hours manually measuring basin characteristics for the stream site of interest. This report also describes the accompanying customized geographic information system (GIS) tool that automates the measurement of basin characteristics and calculation of corresponding flow statistics. The tool includes software that computes the accuracy of the results and adjustments for expected probability and for streamflow data of a nearby stream-gaging station that is either upstream or downstream and within 50 percent of the drainage area of the site where the flow-frequency characteristics are being estimated. The custom GIS can be linked to the National Flood Frequency program, adding the ability to plot peak-flow-frequency curves and synthetic hydrographs and to compute adjustments for urbanization.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Temperature model in support of the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model for seismic hazard Ssudies

The U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model (NCM) is being developed to assist with earthquake hazard and risk assessment by supporting estimates of ground shaking in response to an earthquake. The period-dependent intensity and duration of shaking depend upon the three-dimensional seismic velocity, seismic attenuation, and density distribution of a region, which in turn is governed to a large degree by geology and how that geology behaves under varying temperatures and pressures. A three-dimensional temperature model is presented here to support the estimation of physical parameters within the U.S. Geological Survey NCM. The crustal model is defined by a geological framework consisting of various lithologies with distinct mineral compositions. A temperature model is needed to calculate mineral density and bulk and shear modulus as a function of position within the crust. These properties control seismic velocity and impedance, which are needed to accurately estimate earthquake travel times and seismic amplitudes in earthquake hazard analyses. The temperature model is constrained by observations of surface temperature, temperature gradient, and conductivity, inferred Moho temperature and depth, and assumed conductivity at the base of the crust. The continental plate is assumed to have heat production that decreases exponentially with depth and thermal conductivity that exponentially changes from a surface value to 3.6 watts per meter-Kelvin at the Moho. The oceanic plate cools as a half-space with a geotherm dependent on plate age. Under these conditions, and the application of observed surface heat production, predicted Moho temperatures match Moho temperatures inferred from seismic P-wave velocities, on average. As has been noted in previous studies, high crustal temperatures are found in the western United States, particularly beneath areas of recent volcanism. In the central and eastern United States, elevated temperatures are found from southeast Texas, into the Mississippi Embayment, and up through Wisconsin. A USGS ScienceBase data release that supports this report is available and consists of grids covering the NCM across the conterminous United States, for example, surface temperature and temperature gradient, that are needed to produce temperature profiles.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharges for the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable flood-hazard mapping in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. The Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Navajo Nation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites using data collected through 1999 at 146 gaging stations, an additional 13 years of peak-discharge data since a 1997 investigation, which used gaging-station data through 1986. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites were developed for flood regions 8, 11, high elevation, and 6 and are delineated on the basis of the hydrologic codes from the 1997 investigation. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 82 of the 146 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each region, logarithms of the peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then was applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction for a peak discharge have a recurrence interval of 100-years for region 8 was 53 percent (average) for the 100-year flood. The average standard of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 45 to 83 percent for the 100-year flood. Estimated standard error of prediction for a hybrid method for region 11 was large in the 1997 investigation. No distinction of floods produced from a high-elevation region was presented in the 1997 investigation. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are considered to be more reliable than those in the 1997 report because of the increased length of record and improved GIS method. Techniques for transferring flood-frequency relations to ungaged sites on the same stream can be estimated at an ungaged site by a direct application of the regional regression equation or at an ungaged site on a stream that has a gaging station upstream or downstream by using the drainage-area ratio and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Using satellite imagery and soil data to understand occurrences and migration of soil conditions harmful to archaeological sites on Jamestown Island, Virginia

Many know Jamestown Island, Virginia, hereafter referred to as “the Island,” located near the mouth of the James River into the Chesapeake Bay, as the home of the first permanent English settlement in North America. However, the Island is home to 15,000 years’ worth of cultural artifacts and archaeological sites. In addition to its rich history, the Island is home to a variety of native plants and animals, including many rare, threatened, and endangered species. Preserving historical and natural resources is part of Colonial National Historic Park’s (COLO) enabling legislation. To this end, COLO has been seeking data to inform management decisions on how to prioritize resources to preserve archaeological sites and anticipate changes to natural systems from sea-level rise and other effects of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with COLO, collected and analyzed data to help determine soil conditions detrimental to archaeological sites across the Island using a combination of soil samples and assessments of vegetative health as a proxy for soil conditions. This study combined normalized difference vegetative index raster grids spanning 8 years, 2010 to 2018, and soil data from 50 sites sampled in dry (June 2021) and wet months (March 2022) at two different soil horizons to investigate potential hazards to plant health and corrosive conditions in the unsaturated subsurface. The data suggest that access to the James River drives soil pH and soil conductivity. Areas of the Island that are subject to frequent inundation were observed to have both higher soil conductivity (as high as 4,845 millisiemens per meter [mS/m]) and lower pH (as low as 3.84). Higher soil conductivity, or salinity, and more acidity create corrosive environment, which can destroy buried artifacts and are detrimental to vegetative health. These conditions were not limited to the edges of the Island, like Black Point. Inland locations, such as the Pitch and Tar Swamp, were observed to have some of the highest conductivity values, which were likely caused by from a combination of inflow of James River water along Back Creek into the Pitch and Tar Swamp and proximity to the Visitor Center and other high-traffic areas of the Island. A difference of normalized difference vegetative index values from 2010 to 2018 raster grid appears to support this, showing an apparent loss of vegetative health in marsh grass in the Pitch and Tar Swamp. These data may inform COLO about areas of the Island that are currently most threatened by corrosive conditions and how those conditions are likely to migrate in the future.

Virginia↗

USGS2011

Rock fall simulation at Timpanogos Cave National Monument, American Fork Canyon, Utah, USA

Rock fall from limestone cliffs at Timpanogos Cave National Monument in American Fork Canyon east of Provo, Utah, is a common occurrence. The cave is located in limestone cliffs high on the southern side of the canyon. One fatality in 1933 led to the construction of rock fall shelters at the cave entrance and exit in 1976. Numerous rock fall incidents, including a near miss in 2000 in the vicinity of the trail below the cave exit, have led to a decision to extend the shelter at the cave exit to protect visitors from these ongoing rock fall events initiating from cliffs immediately above the cave exit. Three-dimensional rock fall simulations from sources at the top of these cliffs have provided data from which to assess the spatial frequencies and velocities of rock falls from the cliffs and to constrain the design of protective measures to reduce the rock fall hazard. Results from the rock fall simulations are consistent with the spatial patterns of rock fall impacts that have been observed at the cave exit site.

Utah↗

USGS1972

Bartin-Amasra earthquake, Turkey, September 3, 1968

A brief examination of the Bartin-were whether earthquake area was made on September 23 and September 24,1968, by the authors to determine whether or not geologic effects had been produced that were significant enough to warrant further detailed study by the Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey or by the National Center for Earthquake Research of the U.S. Geological Survey. In particular, the questions to be answered were whether this "natural experiment" had produced unique or unusual results that would cast light on means of controlling damage by geologic conditions, and whether or not surface faults or other tectonic deformation, h.ad developed which might help define the geologic control of earthquakes in northern Turkey. The brief field examination was made jointly by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey and Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey, because of the interest of both agencies in the earthquake hazard problem. Both agencies had participated in the Conference on Earthquake Hazard Minimization sponsored by the Central Treaty Organization held in Ankara in July 1968. The brief examination was, in part, prompted by the recommendations of the Conference group to take advantage of each significant earthquake to learn "how to live with earthquakes in greater safety." No additional study of this earthquake by either organization seems warranted at this time, and our observations made during the brief investigation are reported here.

Amasra, Bartin↗

USGS2020

Geologic map of the Dog River and northern part of the Badger Lake 7.5′ quadrangles, Hood River County, Oregon

The Dog River and northern part of the Badger Lake 7.5' quadrangles encompasses an area of ~201 km2 (77.6 mi2) of the High Cascades of north-central Oregon, lying across the eastern slopes of Mount Hood volcano (Figure 1-1; Plate 1; referred to herein as Dog River–Badger Lake area). Mount Hood, known as Wy’east to Native Americans, is Oregon’s tallest peak (3,427 m [11,241 ft]). The volcano has erupted episodically for the past 500,000 years, experiencing two major eruptive periods during the last 1,500 years (Scott and others, 1997a; Scott and others, 2003; Scott and Gardner, 2017). Cascade Range volcanism and structural development in the area dates back longer, with eruptive activity dating from latest Miocene to recent time; part of that volcano-tectonic record is detailed by new high-resolution geologic mapping presented here. The geology of the Dog River–Badger Lake area was mapped by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) between 2017 and 2020, in collaboration with geoscientists from the U. S. Geological Survey Cascade Volcano Observatory (USGS CVO) and Hamilton College, New York. The primary objective of this investigation is to provide an updated and spatially accurate geologic framework for the Dog River–Badger Lake area as part of a multi-year study of the geology of the larger Middle Columbia Basin (Figure 1-1, Figure 1-2). Additional key objectives of this project are to: 1) determine the geologic history of volcanic rocks in this part of the northern Oregon Cascade Range, including lava flows and volcaniclastic deposits erupted from Middle Pleistocene to Holocene Mount Hood volcano; 2) provide significant new details about the structure and fault history along the northern segment of the High Cascades intra-arc graben (Hood River graben); and 3) better understand geologic hazards in the region, related to earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides. New detailed geologic data presented here also provides a basis for future geologic, geohydrologic, and geohazard studies in the greater Middle Columbia Basin. Detailed geologic mapping in this part of the Middle Columbia Basin is a high priority of the Oregon Geologic Map Advisory Committee (OGMAC), supported in part by grants from the STATEMAP component of the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (G17AC00210, G19AC00160). Additional funds were provided by the State of Oregon. The core products of this study are this report, an accompanying geologic map and cross sections (Plate 1), an Esri ArcGIS™ geodatabase, and Microsoft Excel® spreadsheets tabulating point data for geochemistry, geochronology, magnetic polarity, orientation points, and well data. The geodatabase presents the new geologic mapping in a digital format consistent with the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program Geologic Map Schema (GeMS) (U.S. Geological Survey National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program, 2020). This geodatabase contains spatial information, including geologic polygons, contacts, structures, geochemistry, geochronology, magnetic observation, orientation points, and well data, as well as data about each geologic unit such as age, lithology, mineralogy, and structure. Digitization at scales of 1:8,000 or better was accomplished using a combination of high-resolution lidar topography and imagery. Surficial and bedrock geologic units contained in the geodatabase are depicted on the Plate 1 at a scale of 1:24,000. Both the geodatabase and geologic map are supported by this report describing the geology in detail.

Oregon↗

USGS2016

Identifying and preserving high-water mark data

High-water marks provide valuable data for understanding recent and historical flood events. The proper collection and recording of high-water mark data from perishable and preserved evidence informs flood assessments, research, and water resource management. Given the high cost of flooding in developed areas, experienced hydrographers, using the best available techniques, can contribute high-quality data toward efforts such as public education of flood risk, flood inundation mapping, flood frequency computations, indirect streamflow measurement, and hazard assessments. This manual presents guidance for skilled high-water mark identification, including marks left behind in natural and man-made environments by tranquil and rapid flowing water. This manual also presents pitfalls and challenges associated with various types of flood evidence that help hydrographers identify the best high-water marks and assess the uncertainty associated with a given mark. Proficient high-water mark data collection contributes to better understanding of the flooding process and reduces risk through greater ability to estimate flood probability. The U.S. Geological Survey, operating the Nation’s premier water data collection network, encourages readers of this manual to familiarize themselves with the art and science of high-water mark collection. The U.S. Geological survey maintains a national database at http://water.usgs.gov/floods/FEV/ that includes high-water mark information for many flood events, and local U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Centers can provide information to interested readers about participation in data collection and flood documentation efforts as volunteers or observers.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2017

Kīlauea summit eruption—Lava returns to Halemaʻumaʻu

In March 2008, a new volcanic vent opened within Halemaʻumaʻu , a crater at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park on the Island of Hawaiʻi. This new vent is one of two ongoing eruptions on the volcano. The other is on Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone, where vents have been erupting nearly nonstop since 1983. The duration of these simultaneous summit and rift zone eruptions on Kīlauea is unmatched in at least 200 years. Since 2008, Kīlauea’s summit eruption has consisted of continuous degassing, occasional explosive events, and an active, circulating lava lake. Because of ongoing volcanic hazards associated with the summit vent, including the emission of high levels of sulfur dioxide gas and fragments of hot lava and rock explosively hurled onto the crater rim, the area around Halemaʻumaʻu remains closed to the public as of 2017. Through historical photos of past Halemaʻumaʻu eruptions and stunning 4K imagery of the current eruption, this 24-minute program tells the story of Kīlauea Volcano’s summit lava lake—now one of the two largest lava lakes in the world. It begins with a Hawaiian chant that expresses traditional observations of a bubbling lava lake and reflects the connections between science and culture that continue on Kīlauea today. The video briefly recounts the eruptive history of Halemaʻumaʻu and describes the formation and continued growth of the current summit vent and lava lake. It features USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists sharing their insights on the summit eruption—how they monitor the lava lake, how and why the lake level rises and falls, why explosive events occur, the connection between Kīlauea’s ongoing summit and East Rift Zone eruptions, and the impacts of the summit eruption on the Island of Hawaiʻi and beyond. The video is also available at the following U.S. Geological Survey Multimedia Gallery link (video hosted on YouTube): Kīlauea summit eruption—Lava returns to Halemaʻumaʻu

Hawai'i↗

USGS2015

Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be “operational earthquake forecasting.” The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as “forewarnings,” but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered “direct” and “indirect” forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, “models” refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.

Cascadia region↗

USGS2025

Wildfire risk information sources and the acceptability of fuels treatments near select WUI communities in the Western United States

Fuels treatments intended to reduce fuel loads and improve forest health on public lands offer one way to reduce wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where the natural and built environments meet. However, for fuels treatment implementation to be successful, it must comply with regulatory and scientific standards and be supported by local communities, as lack of acceptance can lead to alterations, delays, or abandonment. To foster support, public land managers can engage directly with residents in communities near treatment areas through various communication channels or engage indirectly through trusted local partners. This research uses paired household survey and observed parcel-level wildfire risk assessment data to investigate wildfire risk information sources' role in the acceptability of fuels treatment approaches on public lands near select WUI communities in the Western United States. We find that information deemed useful from sources is often positively correlated with acceptability, while information deemed not useful is sometimes negatively correlated. Local sources of information tend to be widely received, perceived as useful, and have positive correlations with acceptability, while nonlocal sources vary in their receipt, perceived usefulness, and correlations with acceptability. Public land managers, particularly those from national organizations, may benefit from leveraging and aligning messaging with trusted local partners. Developing fuels treatment plans that consider existing local sentiments may facilitate public trust in managers and acceptability of treatments.

Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

The Outer Banks of North Carolina

The Outer Banks of North Carolina are excellent examples of the nearly 300 barrier islands rimming the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. These low, sandy islands are among the most dynamic natural landscapes occupied by man. Beach sands move offshore, onshore, and along the shore in the direction of the prevailing longshore currents. In this way, sandy coasts continuously adjust to different tide, wave, and current conditions and to rising sea level that causes the islands to migrate landward. Despite such changes, barrier islands are of considerable environmental importance. The Outer Banks are home to diverse natural ecosystems that are adapted to the harsh coastal environment. Native species tend to be robust and many are specifically adapted to withstand salt spray, periodic saltwater flooding, and the islands’ well-drained sandy soil. The Outer Banks provide an important stopover for birds on the Atlantic flyway, and many species inhabit the islands year round. In addition, Outer Banks beaches provide an important nesting habitat for five endangered or threatened sea turtle species. European explorers discovered North Carolina’s barrier islands in the 16th century, although the islands were not permanently settled until the middle 17th century. By the early 19th century, shipbuilding and lumber industries were among the most successful, until forest resources were depleted. Commercial fishing eventually followed, and it expanded considerably after the Civil War. By the Great Depression, however, little industry existed on the Outer Banks. In response to the effects of a severe hurricane in 1933, the National Park Service and the Civilian Conservation Corps proposed a massive sand-fixation program to stabilize the moving sand and prevent storm waves from sweeping across the entire width of some sections of the islands. Between 1933 and 1940, this program constructed sand fencing on 185 kilometers (115 miles) of beach and planted grass seedlings, trees, and shrubs. In 1937, Congress authorized the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, which was established in 1953. The national seashore preserved one of the world’s best examples of a barrier island environment, and minimized the effect of erosion that was becoming a serious problem. In 1966, Congress authorized the Cape Lookout National Seashore to ensure that Core and Shackleford Banks would not undergo major development and could be preserved in their natural state. The rate of population growth along the Outer Banks in recent decades has been among the highest in North Carolina. More important, however, has been the growth in vacationers—in 2008, more than a quarter of a million visitors during a typical week. Municipalities now need to provide services to a transient population as much as six times as large as their permanent resident population. Although human activities have dominated the landscape changes observed on the Outer Banks for the past century or two, these changes must be understood in the context of the prevailing atmospheric, oceanic, and geologic processes that have governed the form and function of these islands for thousands of years. It is these natural processes that imbue the Outer Banks with their unique and dichotomous qualities of tranquility and tumult. In the presence of human occupation, it is these same processes that make the islands one of the highest natural-hazard risk zones along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States.

North Carolina↗