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Nitrate in the Mississippi River and its tributaries, 1980-2010: an update

Nitrate concentration and flux were estimated from 1980 through 2010 at eight sites in the Mississippi River Basin as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). These estimates extend the results from a previous investigation that provided nitrate estimates from 1980 through 2008 at the same sites. From 1980 through 2010, annual flow-normalized (FN) nitrate concentration and flux in the Iowa and Illinois Rivers decreased by 11 to 15 percent. These two rivers had the highest FN nitrate concentration in 1980 (5.3 milligrams per liter [mg/L] and 3.9 mg/L, respectively) of any of the study sites. Nitrate increased in the Missouri River (79 and 45 percent increase in FN concentration and flux, respectively), and at the four sites on the Mississippi River (17 to 70 percent increase in FN concentration and 8 to 55 percent increase in FN flux) from 1980 through 2010. Nitrate in the Ohio River was generally stable during this time. Historically, nitrate was high and changed little in the Iowa and Illinois Rivers; however, nitrate concentrations began to decrease around 2000, and this decrease continued through 2010. Also during this time, near-flat nitrate trends in lower sections of the Mississippi River began increasing, likely reflecting the acceleration of already increasing nitrate trends in the upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, in addition to increases in inputs from other tributaries in the lower part of the Mississippi River Basin. Spring trends (April through June) generally parallel annual trends at all sites from 1980 through 2010, except in the Iowa River where decreasing nitrate during the spring was not observed. In general, most sites had increases in nitrate concentration at low streamflows, which suggests increases in legacy nitrate from groundwater or point source contributions. In aggregate, the decreases in nitrate concentrations from the Iowa and Illinois Rivers, which largely occurred during high flows, appear to be overshadowed by increasing nitrate concentrations across much of the Mississippi River Basin.

Gulf Of Mexico;Illinois River;Iowa River;Mississip

Groundwater movement and interaction with surface water near the confluence of the Platte and Elkhorn rivers, Nebraska, 2016–18

The State of Nebraska requires a sustainable balance between long-term water supplies and uses of groundwater and surface water and requires Natural Resources Districts to include the effect of groundwater use on surface-water systems as part of their respective integrated management plans. Recent droughts in Nebraska (2000–6; 2012–13) have amplified concerns about the long-term sustainability of groundwater and surface-water resources in the state, and concerns about the effect of groundwater irrigation on both streamflow and the water supplies needed to meet wildlife, recreational, and municipal needs. The lower Platte River provides nearly 100 percent of drinking-water supplies to Lincoln, Nebraska, 40 to 60 percent of drinking-water supplies to Omaha, Nebr., and critical aquatic and riparian habitat for threatened and endangered species. The Lower Platte River Basin-wide Management Plan has been jointly developed by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources and seven Natural Resources Districts to address some of these concerns by managing groundwater and surface-water resources conjunctively. To sustain flows in the lower Platte River that are needed for municipal water supplies, water managers have proposed projects aimed at temporary storage of surface water in upstream parts of the basin to mitigate periods of low flow in the lower Platte River. To increase scientific understanding and provide support for any potential future streamflow augmentation projects, the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, the Lower Platte North Natural Resources District, and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, initiated this study to examine groundwater/surface-water interaction along the lower Platte and Elkhorn Rivers upstream from their confluence. The study design described herein focused on understanding seasonal characteristics of groundwater movement and interaction with surface water during periods of high groundwater demand (June through August) and low groundwater demand (all other months). Understanding how groundwater movement and interaction with surface water are affected by streamflow conditions and local groundwater demand is critical to the development of any streamflow augmentation project intended to sustain streamflow and mitigate periods of low flow in the lower Platte River. The characteristics of groundwater movement and interaction with surface water are affected by hydrologic and local climatic conditions. For the study area, 2016–18 conditions can be broadly characterized as above normal precipitation. The flows measured at the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (U.S. Geological Survey station 06800500) were above the long-term median, and the streamflow of the Platte River near Leshara, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (06796500) remained normal or slightly above normal for the duration of this study. Continuous streamflow and water-level data were interpreted to examine differences in groundwater movement and interaction with surface water between the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers during high and low groundwater demand periods. Although the streamflow for the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers and their tributaries was less during the high groundwater demand period, the hydraulic gradient along a transect of recorder wells was identical (0.0012 foot per foot) during the high and low groundwater demand synoptic water-level and streamflow surveys. The hydraulic gradient between the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers generally remained between 0.0011 and 0.0012 foot per foot. It can be inferred that the hydraulic gradient, which is the only temporally variable factor in Darcy’s Law, is consistent throughout the study period and that groundwater flow does not vary appreciably along this transect. The northern part of the study area (north of the transect of recorder wells) has consistent groundwater and tributary flow from Big Slough, Rawhide Creek (Old Channel), and Rawhide Creek for low and high groundwater demand periods. In the southern part of the study area (south of the transect of recorder wells), tributary flow is more variable and dependent on local groundwater demand and flow conditions of the Platte River. Small decreases (less than 2 feet) in the groundwater levels, such as those measured during the high groundwater demand period, can have substantial changes in the streamflow in an unnamed tributary to the Elkhorn River. The streamflow measured during the high groundwater demand synoptic water-level and streamflow survey had decreased by nearly a factor of 20 when compared to the low groundwater demand period. The volume of groundwater discharge received by the Elkhorn River was estimated by examining the changes in streamflow between measurement locations. Streamflow measurements indicate that the groundwater discharge received by the Elkhorn River in the southern part of the study area was seasonably variable, making it difficult if not impossible to estimate an annual value. In the Elkhorn River, between the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station and the Q Street Bridge, streamflow measurements collected during the low groundwater demand period indicated a gain of 80 cubic feet per second, which is comparable to the gain estimated using aerial thermal infrared imagery and water temperature data. Streamflow measurements collected during the high groundwater demand period indicate a loss of 80 cubic feet per second across this same reach. In assessing water supply conditions in the lower Platte River system, the term “loss” in reference to streamflow in the Elkhorn River should be used with caution. Most likely, flow from the Elkhorn River which is “lost” to the groundwater system will later discharge to surface water closer to the confluence of the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers as underflow. A calibrated groundwater flow model of the study area likely is required to predict the fate of this water and to quantify groundwater discharge during varying hydrologic conditions along this reach. Aerial thermal infrared imagery indicated that much of the groundwater discharge in the southern part of the study area is focused across a 3-mile reach where the Elkhorn River turns southwest, perpendicular to the regional groundwater flow direction. Points of focused groundwater discharge were not detected with aerial thermal infrared imagery, indicating that groundwater discharge is diffuse rather than concentrated at focused points. Temperature-based streambed flux estimates indicated that strong regional groundwater gradients are not driving groundwater discharge and hyporheic flow is the dominant groundwater/surface-water exchange process.

Nebraska

Water-quality assessment of the Ozark Plateaus study unit, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma: Organic compounds in surface water, bed sediment, and biological tissue, 1992-95

Organic-compound samples, including pesticides and semi-volatiles, were collected from 1992-95 at 43 surface-water and 27 bed-sediment and biological-tissue sampling sites within the Ozark Plateaus National Water-Quality Assessment Program study unit. Most surface-water, bed-sediment, and biological-tissue sites have drainage basins predominantly in the Springfield and Salem Plateaus. At most surface-water sampling sites, one to three pesticide samples were collected in the spring and early summer of 1994 and 1995; two sites had additional samples collected either weekly, biweekly, or monthly from February 1994 through December 1994. At most bed-sediment and biological-tissue sampling sites, a single organic-compounds sample was collected. Agricultural pesticide use was approximately 4.9 million pounds of active ingredients per year from 1987-91 in the study unit and was generally greatest in the Springfield and Salem Plateaus pasturelands and in the Osage Plains and Mississippi Alluvial Plain cropland areas. The most frequently applied pesticide in the study unit was 2,4-D. Atrazine was the second most frequently applied pesticide. Corn, pasture, rice, sorghum, and soybeans received approximately 85 percent of the pesticides applied within the study unit. The highest pesticide application rate occurred on these crops in the Mississippi Alluvial and Osage Plains. Pastureland was the crop type that received the greatest amount of pesticides in 53 of the 96 counties in the study unit. The most commonly detected herbicide (63 samples) in surface water was atrazine. Five other pesticides--desethylatrazine, tebuthiuron, prometon, metolachlor, and simazine--were detected in 15 or more samples. The most commonly detected insecticide (13 samples) was p,p'-DDE. Two other insecticides, diazinon and cis-permethrin, were detected in seven or more samples. Pesticides were detected at 39 surface-water sites; samples collected at Yocum Creek near Oak Grove, Ark. had the most pesticide detections (13). Seventeen other sites had samples with six or more pesticide detections. Analysis of pesticide data collected at surface-water sites indicates that the largest variety of different pesticides detected (18) was in small, agricultural drainage basins; the largest percentage of detections of a single pesticide (about 80) was in medium, agricultural basins. Pesticide concentrations were small, and in most cases, at or near the detection limit. Maximum concentrations ranged from 0.001 to 0.007 micrograms per liter (mg/L) at small, forest sites; 0.001 to 0.029 mg/L at medium, forest sites; 0.001 to 0.079 mg/L at small, agricultural sites; and 0.003 to 0.29 mg/L at medium, agricultural sites. Pesticides were detected significantly more often in medium, agricultural basins in the Springfield Plateau. The most commonly detected (13 samples) organic compound in bed sediment, in concentrations noticeably above background levels, was 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene; the maximum concentration of 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene was 130 micrograms per kilogram. Seventeen or more compounds were detected in bed-sediment samples collected at three sites. Four compounds were detected in biological-tissue samples: p,p'-DDT in Corbicula fluminea (Asiatic clam) tissue collected at the Osage River near St. Thomas, Mo. and cis-chlordane, trans-chlordane, and trans-nonachlor in C. fluminea tissue collected at the James River near Boaz, Mo. Organic compounds collected at surface-water, bed-sediment, or biological-tissue sampling sites were not detected in concentrations that exceeded any health criteria or standards. Based on this information, organic compounds do not pose any widespread or persistent problems in the study unit.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma

Use of Numerical Simulations in Surface-Water Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey in Missouri

Numerical simulations of surface-water systems can be a useful tool to predict and understand a variety of physical, chemical, and ecological processes. A number of applications have been conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey Missouri Water Science Center in conjunction with ecological and flood studies in Missouri. Numerical simulations can provide a physically based method to predict natural processes in situations where it is impractical to measure the results directly as a result of cost, time, or infrequent occurrence. Numerical simulations provide a means of analyzing 'What if?' scenarios. For example, a simulation can be used to estimate the effects of reservoirs in a basin on the timing and magnitude of downstream streamflows. Simulations also may provide a better understanding of a complex process, such as sediment transport and deposition during a large flood. Alternatively, numerical simulations can be used to quantify aquatic habitat that is defined by the hydraulic (depth and velocity) characteristics of streamflow. This report provides information on recent applications of numerical simulations of hydraulic, floodplain, and watershed processes.

Fact Sheet

Evaluation of streambed-sediment metals concentrations in the Spring River Basin, Cherokee County Superfund site, Kansas, 2017

To evaluate the magnitude of, and change in, mining-related contamination, streambed-sediment samples were collected from 30 sampling sites in the Spring River Basin in the Cherokee County Superfund site, southeast Kansas, in July and August 2017. The Cherokee County Superfund site is part of the Tri-State Mining District, an area that covers parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma that was historically mined for lead and zinc. The sampling sites corresponded to 30 sites sampled in 2004 as part of a previous study. Concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc in the 2017 streambed-sediment samples were compared with the 2004 concentrations and with available sediment-quality guidelines. Cadmium concentrations from 2004 and 2017 samples were not compared if both samples had concentrations less than the lower of the sediment-quality guidelines because of poor performance of cadmium replicate-samples analyses at lower concentrations. Streambed-sediment concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc in the 2017 samples compared to the 2004 samples were decreased by at least 20 percent at 12, 16, and 16 sites, respectively; increased by at least 20 percent at 2, 5, and 7 sites, respectively; and had less than a 20-percent change at 5, 9, and 7 sites, respectively. In 2017, cadmium, lead, and zinc concentrations exceeded general consensus-based sediment-quality guidelines at 17, 14, and 18 sites, respectively, compared to 19, 17, and 20 sites, respectively, in 2004. In 2017, cadmium, lead, and zinc concentrations exceeded Tri-State Mining District-specific sediment-quality guidelines at 12, 14, and 11 sites, respectively, compared to 16, 16, and 13 sites, respectively, in 2004. The highest 2017 concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc were measured at sites along Short Creek near Galena, Kansas.

Kansas

The power to detect trends in Missouri River fish populations within the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program

As with all large rivers in the United States, the Missouri River has been altered, with approximately 32.5 percent of the main stem length impounded and 32.5 percent channelized. These physical alterations to the environment have had effects on the fisheries, but studies examining the effects of alterations have been localized and for short periods of time. In response to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biological opinion, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers initiated monitoring of the fish community of the Missouri River in 2003. The goal of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program is to provide information to detect changes in populations and habitat preferences with time for pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) and native target species in the Missouri River Basin. To determine statistical power of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program, a power analysis was conducted using a normal linear mixed model with variance component estimates based on the first 3 years of data (2003 to 2005). In cases where 3 years of data were unavailable, estimates were obtained using those data. It was determined that at least 20 years of data, sampling 12 bends with 8 subsamples per bend, would be required to detect a 5 percent annual decline in most of the target fish populations. Power varied between Zones. Zone 1 (upstream from Lake Sakakawea) did not have any species/gear type combinations with adequate power, whereas Zone 3 (downstream from Gavins Point Dam) had 19 species/gear type combinations with adequate power. With a slight increase in the sampling effort to 12 subsamples per bend, the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program has adequate power to detect declines in shovelnose sturgeon (S. platorynchus) throughout the entire Missouri River because of large catch rates. The lowest level of non-occurrence (in other words, zero catches) at the bend level for pallid sturgeon was 0.58 using otter trawls in Zone 1. Consequently, the power of the pallid sturgeon models was not as high as other species at the current level of sampling, but an increase in the sampling effort to 16 subsamples for each of 24 bends for 20 years would generate adequate power for the pallid sturgeon in all Zones. Since gear types are selective in their species efficiency, the strength of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program approach is using multiple gears that have statistical power to detect population trends at the same time in different fish species within the Missouri River. As often is the case with monitoring studies involving endangered species, the data used to conduct the analyses exhibit some departures from the parametric model assumptions; however, preliminary simulations indicate that the results of this study are appropriate.

Open-File Report

Structure of the Reelfoot rift as interpreted from 2-D magnetotelluric models

The results of magnetotelluric (MT) surveys reveal structures associated with the Reelfoot rift, including an axial high-resistivity structure that may be related to intrusions in the central part of the rift or to a previously unrecognized horst. The axis of this resistivity high generally follows the central part of the Reelfoot rift, but its orientation is offset several degrees from the enigmatic Blytheville arch. The MT structural high follows the main part of a northeast-trending seismicity belt, but in the New Madrid, Missouri area electrical structures are more complicated. In this northern part of the study area, the strike of resistivity structures determined from the MT data indicate a nearly north-south direction, rather than the N45°E direction indicated for most of the data. If the axial high-resistivity structure represents a horst, then it may form an interior divide between thick shale basins. Faults bounding the proposed horst may be a controlling factor for the northeast trending seismic zone.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee

Estimation of constituent concentrations, densities, loads, and yields in lower Kansas River, northeast Kansas, using regression models and continuous water-quality monitoring, January 2000 through December 2003

The lower Kansas River is an important source of drinking water for hundreds of thousands of people in northeast Kansas. Constituents of concern identified by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) for streams in the lower Kansas River Basin include sulfate, chloride, nutrients, atrazine, bacteria, and sediment. Real-time continuous water-quality monitors were operated at three locations along the lower Kansas River from July 1999 through September 2004 to provide in-stream measurements of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen and to estimate concentrations for constituents of concern. Estimates of concentration and densities were combined with streamflow to calculate constituent loads and yields from January 2000 through December 2003. The Wamego monitoring site is located 44 river miles upstream from the Topeka monitoring site, which is 65 river miles upstream from the DeSoto monitoring site, which is 18 river miles upstream from where the Kansas River flows into the Missouri River. Land use in the Kansas River Basin is dominated by grassland and cropland, and streamflow is affected substantially by reservoirs. Water quality at the three monitoring sites varied with hydrologic conditions, season, and proximity to constituent sources. Nutrient and sediment concentrations and bacteria densities were substantially larger during periods of increased streamflow, indicating important contributions from nonpoint sources in the drainage basin. During the study period, pH remained well above the KDHE lower criterion of 6.5 standard units at all sites in all years, but exceeded the upper criterion of 8.5 standard units annually between 2 percent of the time (Wamego in 2001) and 65 percent of the time (DeSoto in 2003). The dissolved oxygen concentration was less than the minimum aquatic-life-support criterion of 5.0 milligrams per liter less than 1 percent of the time at all sites. Dissolved solids, a measure of the dissolved material in water, exceeded 500 milligrams per liter about one-half of the time at the three Kansas River sites. Larger dissolved-solids concentrations upstream likely were a result of water inflow from the highly mineralized Smoky Hill River that is diluted by tributary flow as it moves downstream. Concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus at the three monitoring sites exceeded the ecoregion water-quality criteria suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency during the entire study period. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were similar at all three sites, and nutrient load increased moving from the upstream to downstream sites. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields were nearly the same from site to site indicating that nutrient sources were evenly distributed throughout the lower Kansas River Basin. About 11 percent of the total nitrogen load and 12 percent of the total phosphorus load at DeSoto during 2000-03 originated from wastewater-treatment facilities. Escherichia coli bacteria densities were largest at the middle site, Topeka. On average, 83 percent of the annual bacteria load at DeSoto during 2000-03 occurred during 10 percent of the time, primarily in conjunction with runoff. The average annual sediment loads at the middle and downstream monitoring sites (Topeka and DeSoto) were nearly double those at the upstream site (Wamego). The average annual sediment yield was largest at Topeka. On average, 64 percent of the annual suspended-sediment load at DeSoto during 2000-03 occurred during 10 percent of the time. Trapping of sediment by reservoirs located on contributing tributaries decreases transport of sediment and sediment-related constituents. The average annual suspended-sediment load in the Kansas River at DeSoto during 2000-03 was estimated at 1.66 million tons. An estimated 13 percent of this load consisted of sand-size particles, so approximately 216,000 tons of sand were transported

Scientific Investigations Report

Environmental and hydrologic setting of the Ozark Plateaus study unit, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma

The environmental and hydrologic setting of the Ozark Plateaus National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study unit and the factors that affect water quality are described in this report. The primary natural and cultural features that affect water- quality characteristics and the potential for future water-quality problems are described. These environmental features include climate, physio- graphy, geology, soils, population, land use, water use, and surface- and ground-water flow systems. The study-unit area is approximately 47,600 square miles and includes most of the Ozark Plateaus Province and parts of the adjacent Osage Plains and Mississippi Alluvial Plain in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. The geology is characterized by basement igneous rocks overlain by a thick sequence of dolomites, limestones, sandstones, and shales of Paleozoic age. Land use in the study unit is predominantly pasture and forest in the southeastern part, and pasture and cropland in the northwestern part. All or part of the White, Neosho-lllinois, Osage, Gasconade, Meramec, St. Francis, and Black River Basins are within the study unit. Streams in the Boston Mountains contain the least mineralized water, and those in the Osage Plains contain the most mineralized water. The study unit contains eight hydrogeologic units including three major aquifers--the Springfield Plateau, Ozark, and St. Francois aquifers. Streams and aquifers in the study unit generally contain calcium or calcium-magnesium bicarbonate waters. Ground- and surface-water interactions are greatest in the Salem and Springfield Plateaus and least in the Boston Mountains and Osage Plains. Geology, land use, and population probably are the most important environmental factors that affect water quality.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Precipitation-driven flood-inundation mapping of Muddy Creek at Harrisonville, Missouri

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Harrisonville, Missouri, assessed flooding of Muddy Creek resulting from varying precipitation magnitudes and durations, antecedent runoff conditions, and channel modifications (cleaned culverts and added detention storage). The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps that included a 3.8-mile reach of Muddy Creek and tributaries within and adjacent to the city. Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the upper Muddy Creek study basin were used to assess streamflow magnitudes associated with simulated precipitation amounts and the resulting flood-inundation conditions. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS; version 4.4.1) was used to simulate the amount of streamflow produced from a range of precipitation events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; version 5.0.7) was then used to route streamflows and map resulting areas of flood inundation. The hydrologic and hydraulic models were calibrated to the September 28, 2019; May 27, 2021; and June 25, 2021, runoff events representing a range of antecedent runoff conditions and hydrologic responses. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 30-minute to 24-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability. Flood-inundation maps were produced for reference stages of 1.0 foot (ft), or near bankfull, to 4.0 ft, or a stage exceeding the 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability interval precipitation, using the HEC–RAS model. The results of each precipitation duration-frequency value were represented by a 0.5-ft increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding stage at the Muddy Creek reference location. Seven scenarios were developed with the HEC–HMS hydrologic model with resulting streamflows routed in a HEC–RAS hydraulic model, and these scenarios varied by antecedent runoff condition and potential channel modifications. The same precipitation scenarios were used in each of the seven antecedent runoff and channel conditions, and the simulation results were assigned to a flood-inundation map condition based on the generated peak flow and corresponding stage at the Muddy Creek reference location.

Missouri

Hydrology of area 38, Western Region, Interior Coal Province, Iowa and Missouri

A nationwide need for information characterizing hydrologic conditions in mined and potential mine areas has become paramount with the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977. This report is designed to be useful to the mine owners, operators, and others by presenting information about the existing hydrologic conditions and by identifying sources of hydrologic information. General hydrologic information is presented using a brief text with an accompanying map, chart, graph, or other illustration for each of a series of water-resources-related topics. The summation of the topical discussions provides a description of the hydrology of the area. Coal has been mined for 130 years in Area 38, but large reserves remain. Production peaked in 1917 when Iowa produced 9 million tons and Missouri produced 6 million tons. Underground mining has been replaced by surface mining in Area 38. Not all past surface-mined lands are subject to reclamation under recently enacted reclamation laws. The surface-water monitoring network in Area 38 consists of 183 stations. Streamflow varies seasonally and from year to year. Water-quality data are available for 49 stations in the study area. Measurements of specific conductance, dissolved solids, pH, alkalinity, sulfate, iron, manganese, trace metals and other constituents are available for 36 stations operated between 1978 and 1981 expressly for the collection of water-quality data within basins containing coal mines. A cumulative impact of coal mining on the mineralization of surface water is evident from specific-conductance data for stations downstream from mining activities. Alkalinity in streams in Area 38 averaged greater than 118 milligrams per liter, providing the capability to neutralize acid-mine drainage to some extent. Sulfate concentrations in streamflow averaged 88 milligrams per liter at stations upstream from coal mines and 269 milligrams per liter at stations downstream from coal mines. Significant relationships exist between totalrecoverable-iron concentrations and suspendedsediment concentrations. Manganese concentrations are larger in streams draining mined areas. Streamflow at 5 of the 36 coal-hydrology stations in Area 38, all located downstream from coal mines, exceeded acid-mine-drainage criteria at one time or another. In Area 38 dissolved-solids concentrations in water from the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer range from 300 to 15,000 milligrams per liter; in southcentral Iowa and where the aquifer underlies the Missouri River alluvium, as in Boone County, Missouri, dissolved-solids concentrations are less than 1,000 milligrams per liter. In these areas the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer is suitable for domestic and other uses. Chemical quality of water from Quaternary aquifers generally is suitable for domestic uses and other uses, dissolved-solids concentrations averaged less than 1,000 milligrams per liter. Iron, manganese and nitrate are excessive in some instances. Chemical quality of water from Mississippian and Pennsylvanian aquifers is unsuitable for domestic use and may be unsuitable for other uses. The Pennsylvanian and Misissippian aquifers have average sulfate concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter.

Iowa, Missouri

Survival, transport, and sources of fecal bacteria in streams and survival in land-applied poultry litter in the upper Shoal Creek basin, southwestern Missouri, 2001–2002

Densities of fecal coliform bacteria along a 5.7-mi (mile) reach of Shoal Creek extending upstream from State Highway 97 (site 3) to State Highway W (site 2) and in two tributaries along this reach exceeded the Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) standard of 200 col/100 mL (colonies per 100 milliliters) for whole-body contact recreation. A combination of techniques was used in this report to provide information on the source, transport, and survival of fecal bacteria along this reach of Shoal Creek. Results of water-quality samples collected during dye-trace and seepage studies indicated that at summer low base-flow conditions, pastured cattle likely were a substantial source of fecal bacteria in Shoal Creek at the MDNR monitoring site (site 3) at State Highway 97. Using repeat element Polymerase Chain Reaction (rep-PCR), cattle were the presumptive source of about 50 percent of the Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) isolates in water samples from site 3. Cattle, horses, and humans were the most common presumptive source of E. coli isolates at sites further upstream. Poultry was identified by rep-PCR as a major source of E. coli in Pogue Creek, a tributary in the upper part of the study area. Results of the rep-PCR were in general agreement with the detection and distribution of trace concentrations of organic compounds commonly associated with human wastewater, such as caffeine, the antimicrobial agent triclosan, and the pharmaceutical compounds acetaminophen and thiabendazole (a common cattle anthelmintic). Significant inputs of fecal bacteria to Shoal Creek occurred along a 1.6-mi reach of Shoal Creek immediately upstream from site 3. During a 36-hour period in July 2001, average densities of fecal coliform and E. coli bacteria increased from less than or equal to 500 col/100 mL upstream from this stream reach (sample site 2c) to 2,100 and 1,400 col/100 mL, respectively, at the MDNR sampling site. Fecal bacteria densities exhibited diurnal variability at all five sampling sites along the 5.7-mi study reach of Shoal Creek, but the trends at successive downstream sites were out of phase and could not be explained by simple advection and dispersion. At base-flow conditions, the travel time of bacteria in Shoal Creek along the 5.7-mi reach between State Highway W (site 2) and the MDNR sampling site (site 3) was about 26 hours. Substantial dispersion and dilution occurs along the upper 4.1 mi of this reach because of inflows from a number of springs and tributaries and the presence of several long pools and channel meanders. Minimal dispersion and dilution occurs along the 1.6-mi reach immediately upstream from the MDNR sampling site. Measurements of fecal bacteria decay in Shoal Creek during July 2001 indicated that about 8 percent of fecal coliform and E. coli bacteria decay each hour with an average first-order decay constant of 0.084 h -1 (per hour). Results of field test plots indicated that substantial numbers of fecal bacteria present in poul try litter can survive in fields for as much as 8 weeks after the application of the litter to the land surface. Median densities of fecal coliform and E. coli in slurry-water samples collected from fields increased from less than 60 col/100 mL before the application of turkey and broiler litter, to as large as 420,000 and 290,000 col/100 mL after the application of litter. Bacteria densities in the test plots generally decreased in a exponential manner over time with decay rates ranging from 0.085 to 0.185 d -1 (per day) for fecal coliform to between 0.100 and 0.250 d -1 for E. coli . The apparent survival of significant numbers of fecal bacteria on fields where poultry litter has been applied indicates that runoff from these fields is a potential source of fecal bacteria to vicinity streams for many weeks following litter application.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

A brief history and summary of the effects of river engineering and dams on the Mississippi River system and delta

The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong project is providing technical assistance and information to aid management decisions and build science capacity of institutions in the Mekong River Basin. A component of this effort is to produce a synthesis of the effects of dams and other engineering structures on large-river hydrology, sediment transport, geomorphology, ecology, water quality, and deltaic systems. The Mississippi River Basin (MRB) of the United States was used as the backdrop and context for this synthesis because it is a continental scale river system with a total annual water discharge proportional to the Mekong River, has been highly engineered over the past two centuries, and the effects of engineering have been widely studied and documented by scientists and engineers. The MRB is controlled and regulated by dams and river-engineering structures. These modifications have resulted in multiple benefits including navigation, flood control, hydropower, bank stabilization, and recreation. Dams and other river-engineering structures in the MRB have afforded the United States substantial socioeconomic benefits; however, these benefits also have transformed the hydrologic, sediment transport, geomorphic, water-quality, and ecologic characteristics of the river and its delta. Large dams on the middle Missouri River have substantially reduced the magnitude of peak floods, increased base discharges, and reduced the overall variability of intraannual discharges. The extensive system of levees and wing dikes throughout the MRB, although providing protection from intermediate magnitude floods, have reduced overall channel capacity and increased flood stage by up to 4 meters for higher magnitude floods. Prior to major river engineering, the estimated average annual sediment yield of the Mississippi River Basin was approximately 400 million metric tons. The construction of large main-channel reservoirs on the Missouri and Arkansas Rivers, sedimentation in dike fields, and protection of channel banks by revetments throughout the basin, have reduced the overall sediment yield of the MRB by more than 60 percent. The primary alterations to channel morphology by dams and other engineering projects have been (1) channel simplification and reduced dynamism; (2) lowering of channel-bed elevation; and (3) disconnection of the river channel from the flood plain, except during extreme flood events. Freshwater discharge from the Mississippi River and its associated sediment and nutrient loads strongly influence the physical and biological components in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ninety percent of the nitrogen load reaching the Gulf of Mexico is from nonpoint sources with about 60 percent coming from fertilizer and mineralized soil nitrogen. Much of the phosphorus is from animal manure from pasture and rangelands followed by fertilizer applied to corn and soybeans. Increased nutrient enrichment in the northern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in the degradation of water quality as more phytoplankton grow, which increases turbidity and depletes oxygen in the lower depths creating what is known as the "dead zone." In 2002, the dead zone was 22,000 square kilometers (km2), an area similar to the size of the State of Massachusetts. Changes in the flow regime from engineered structures have had direct and indirect effects on the fish communities. The navigation pools in the upper Mississippi River have aged, and these overwintering habitats, which were created when the pools filled, have declined as sedimentation reduces water depth. Reproduction of paddlefish may have been adversely affected by dams, which impede access to suitable spawning habitats. Fishes that inhabit swift-current habitats in the unimpounded lower Mississippi River have not declined as much as in the upper Mississippi River. The decline of the pallid sturgeon may be attributable to channelization of the Missouri River above St. Louis, Missouri. The Missouri River supports a rich fish community and remains relatively intact. Nevertheless, the widespread and long history of human intervention in river discharge has contributed to the declines of about 25 percent of the species. The Mississippi River Delta Plain is built from six delta complexes composed of a massive area of coastal wetlands that support the largest commercial fishery in the conterminous United States. Since the early 20th century, approximately 4,900 km2 of coastal lands have been lost in Louisiana. One of the primary mechanisms of wetland loss on the Plaquemines-Balize complex is believed to be the disconnection of the river distributary network from the delta plain by the massive system of levees on the delta top, which prevent overbank flooding and replenishment of the delta top by sediment and nutrient deliveries. Efforts by Federal and State agencies to conserve and restore the Mississippi River Delta Plain began over three decades ago and have accelerated over the past decade. Regardless of these efforts, however, land losses are expected to continue because the reduced upstream sediment supplies are not sufficient to keep up with the projected depositional space being created by the combined forces of delta plain subsidence and global sea-level rise.

Alabama;Alberta;Arkansas;Colorado;Georgia;Illinois

Precipitation-driven flood-inundation mapping of the Little Blue River at Grandview, Missouri

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Grandview, Missouri, assessed flooding of the Little Blue River at Grandview resulting from varying precipitation magnitudes and durations and expected land-cover changes. The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps that included a 3.5-mile reach of the Little Blue River and tributaries within and adjacent to the city. A hydrologic model of the upper Little Blue River Basin and a hydraulic model of a selected study reach of the Little Blue River and tributaries were constructed to assess streamflow magnitudes associated with simulated precipitation amounts and the resulting flood-inundation conditions. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS; version 4.4.1) was used to simulate the amount of streamflow produced from a range of rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; version 5.0.7) was then used to construct a steady-state hydraulic model to map resulting areas of flood inundation. Both models were calibrated to the May 28, 2020, high-flow event that produced a peak streamflow approximating a 10-percent annual exceedance probability (10-year flood-frequency recurrence interval) at the Little Blue River at Grandview streamgage (USGS station 06893750). The calibrated HEC–HMS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 1- to 8-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability. Flood-inundation maps were produced for USGS streamflow stages of 17.0 feet (ft), or near bankfull, to 23.0 ft, or a stage exceeding the 0.2-percent annual exceedance interval flood, using the HEC–RAS model. The consequence of each precipitation duration-frequency value was represented by a 1-ft increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding stage at the reference USGS streamgage. Four scenarios were developed with the HEC–HMS hydrologic model: (1) current (2016) land cover, normal antecedent soil-moisture conditions; (2) current land cover, wet antecedent soil-moisture conditions; (3) future land cover, normal antecedent soil-moisture conditions; and (4) future land cover, wet antecedent soil-moisture conditions. The future land-cover condition was estimated based on anticipated development in the basin. All precipitation scenarios were input into each of the four land-cover antecedent moisture conditions and then assigned to a resulting flood-inundation map based on the generated peak flow and corresponding stage at the reference streamgage.

Missouri

A comparison of Grass Carp population characteristics upstream and downstream of Lock and Dam 19 of the Upper Mississippi River

Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella have been intentionally stocked for aquatic vegetation control across the Midwestern United States for several decades. During the 1970s, escapement of Grass Carp into the Missouri River facilitated their naturalization into much of the Mississippi River basin, including the Upper Mississippi River. Lock and Dam 19 (LD19) in Keokuk, Iowa, is a high-head dam that represents a focal point for naturalized Grass Carp management where populations may differ between upstream and downstream pools as result of limited upstream migration, but potential differences between populations have yet to be evaluated to the best of our knowledge. The objective of this study was to compare the relative abundance, size structure, condition, growth, and recruitment variability of Grass Carp collected upstream and downstream of LD19. We sampled Grass Carp monthly (April–October) during 2014 and 2015 from four locations in the Des Moines River (downstream of LD19) and five locations throughout the Skunk, Iowa, and Cedar rivers (upstream of LD19) using boat electrofishing and trammel net sets. We captured 29 Grass Carp upstream of LD19 compared with 179 individuals captured downstream. Trammel nets only captured Grass Carp downstream of LD19; trammel net catch per unit effort upstream of LD19 was low and ranged from 0.0 to 8.0 fish/net lift (mean ± SE = 0.39 ± 0.13). Electrofishing catch per unit effort ranged from 0.0 to 22.7 fish/h (1.49 ± 0.30) and was higher downstream (2.42 ± 0.30) of LD19 than upstream (0.57 ± 0.07). Grass Carp downstream of LD19 tended to be smaller, younger, of lower body condition, had higher mortality rates, and were slower growing compared with those collected upstream and to populations documented in other systems. Understanding and monitoring adult Grass Carp population characteristics upstream and downstream of LD19 is necessary to determine how they may change in response to ongoing harvest efforts for invasive carps in these river reaches.

Iowa

Simulation of monthly mean and monthly base flow of streamflow using random forests for the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain, 1901 to 2018

Improved simulations of streamflow and base flow for selected sites within and adjacent to the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain area are important for modeling groundwater flow because surface-water flows have a substantial effect on groundwater levels. One method for simulating streamflow and base flow, random forest (RF) models, was developed from the data at gaged sites and, in turn, was used to make monthly mean streamflow and base-flow predictions at 162 ungaged sites in the study area. Daily streamflow observations and computed base flow from 247 streamgages were used as the basis for the development of these RF models. RF models were constructed from basin and climatic characteristics and related to observed monthly mean streamflow values; models were used to compute monthly base-flow estimates from selected streamgages in and adjacent to the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain extent, which includes streamflows from parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Texas. The explanatory variables for the models were selected to represent physical characteristics and climatic time series for the contributing drainage basins to the streamgages and ungaged locations of interest. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between observed and simulated monthly mean streamflow was greater than 0.80 for 155 of the 247 streamgages, with a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value of 0.83. The streamflow and base-flow simulations can be used to improve inflow values and to verify the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain groundwater flow model. The statistical model, input data, and response data (simulated monthly mean streamflows) are available as a U.S. Geological Survey software release and a U.S. Geological Survey data release.

Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana,

Population characteristics of Ozark Bass (Ambloplites constellatus) in the upper White River basin of northern Arkansas

Ozark Bass ( Ambloplites constellatus ) is an understudied, endemic fish species in the Upper White River Basin of northern Arkansas. This study was part of an effort by fisheries managers to gather baseline data about the Ozark Bass to aid in understanding population dynamics and contribute to the limited data available for use in determining the efficacy of harvest regulations. Select population characteristics of Ozark Bass in two northern Arkansas streams were determined, population characteristics of Ozark Bass were compared to Shadow Bass ( Ambloplites ariommus ) and Rock Bass ( Ambloplites rupestris ) data collected from previous studies in southern Missouri, and relative condition, length-at-age, and annual survival of Ozark Bass were compared between sample streams. Sampling occurred in Crooked Creek and the Buffalo River during summer 2013 via boat electroshocking. Length and weight data were recorded for all Ozark Bass collected, and fish ages were determined through selective otolith retrieval and age-length keys. Ozark Bass in Crooked Creek had greater relative condition than Ozark Bass in Buffalo River ( P < 0.001). Neither Ozark bass lengths nor log-transformed weights differed ( P > 0.05) between sexes for fish collected from only the Buffalo River. Ozark Bass mean annual survival was similar between Crooked Creek (55% ± 5% as 95% confidence interval (CI)) and the Buffalo River (50% ± 7% CI) for fish age 2 to 9. Calculated Ozark Bass lengths-at-age for fish from both streams were comparable to the Von Bertalanffy growth estimates, except the Buffalo River age 7 categor y where there was only one observation. The relationship between Ozark Bass age and length differed between sampled streams, and variability in growth rates and length-at-age were observed among Ambloplites species. Results of this study contribute to the understanding of the population dynamics of the Ozark Bass that will lead to improved fisheries management.

Arkansas

Low streamflow trends at human-impacted and reference basins in the United States

We present a continent-scale exploration of trends in annual 7-day low streamflows at 2482 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages across the conterminous United States over the past 100, 75, and 50 years (1916–2015, 1941–2015 and 1966–2015). We used basin characteristics to identify subsets of study basins representative of reference basins with streamflow relatively free from human effects (n = 259), and predominantly agricultural basins (n = 78), regulated basins (n = 220), and urban basins (n = 121). Trend significance was computed using the Mann-Kendall test considering short- and long-term persistence. Lag-one autocorrelation tests of detrended 7-day low streamflows for all gage classes show that time-series independence is not an appropriate assumption for annual low streamflow data at many basins. Among all study gages, upward trends (wetter conditions) in 7-day low streamflows outnumbered downward trends (drier conditions) approximately 2–1 for the 75- and 100-year trend periods—50-year trends indicated roughly equal numbers of increases and decreases. Increases in 7-day low streamflow were consistently observed for all time periods throughout much of the northeastern quadrant of the conterminous U.S. including western New England and the Mid-Atlantic, the southeastern Great Lakes basin, northern Ohio River basin, and the Upper Mississippi River and eastern Missouri River basins. Decreases in 7-day low streamflow were consistently observed for all time periods at many gages in the southeastern U.S. and in the northwestern U.S. in much of Idaho and northwestern Washington. Overall, we observed greater percentages of statistically significant trends at gages with human-induced influences than at reference gages. Low-flow trends at agricultural gages were regionally consistent with trends at reference gages. Regulated basins had many statistically significant upward trends for all three time periods tested, which may be attributed in part to substantial increases in dam-related storage prior to 1970. Urban gages had the greatest percentage of significant decreases in 7-day low flows compared to all other gage classes even though most urban gages saw upward trends in mean annual flows. Urban gages also had the greatest percentage of significant increases in low flows second only to regulated gages, highlighting that urban development can increase or decrease low streamflows depending on the basin-specific development.

Conterminous United States