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This chapter describes important geographical and socio-economic characteristics and trends in the Southwest—such as population and economic growth and changes in land ownership, land use, and land cover—that provide the context for how climate change will likely affect the Southwest. The chapter also describes key laws and institutions relevant to adaptive management of resources.
Rising air temperatures are projected to continue to drive up urban, agricultural, and rangeland water use, straining both surface and groundwater resources. Scientific studies have shown that managing farms, ranches, and public lands to increase soil carbon can increase soil waterholding capacity and increase hydrologic benefits such as increased baseflows and aquifer recharge, reduced flooding and erosion, and reduced climate-related water deficits. Coincident improvements in forage and crop yields are also indicated, while simultaneously sequestering carbon, reducing atmospheric greenhouse gases and mitigating climate change. This study was developed to consider the multiple benefits of increasing the organic matter content of soils across California’s working lands. Study results indicate that a one-time ¼” application of compost to rangelands can lead to carbon sequestration rates in soils that are maximized after approximately 15 years, and more than offset greenhouse gas emissions stimulated by the compost addition for at least five decades longer. Modeled increases in total soil organic matter of 3% enhanced hydrologic benefits across 97% of working lands, and reduced climate change impacts. Economic valuation indicated all benefits increasing over time, demonstrating a large potential for the California carbon market to support incentives in regionalizing the impacts in the coming decades. Socioeconomic and related land use pressures pose barriers to implementing management practices to increase soil organic matter by driving conversion of rangeland to urban or to more greenhouse-gas emission intensive agriculture. Results can be effectively used with land use change scenarios to identify where on California’s working lands hydrologic benefits of soil organic matter enhancement coincide with development risk, highlighting counties in California in which there may be resilience to climate change when strategic soil management and land conservation are combined.
Land plays a critical role in both economic and environmental accounting. As an asset, it occupies a unique position at the intersection of the System of National Accounts (SNA), the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Central Framework (SEEA-CF), and (as a spatial unit) SEEA Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EEA), making land a natural starting point for developing natural capital accounts more generally. We develop a pilot set of national and subnational land accounts for the United States that are consistent with the SEEA-CF and SNA principles, quantified in both physical and monetary terms. The physical accounts utilize detailed land use (National Land Use Database) and land cover (National Land Cover Database) datasets, which provide insights into how land cover in the U.S. is changing over time. To provide aggregate estimates of land values, we use a hedonic approach that exploits fine-grain microdata (“big data” from Zillow) that contains detailed information from hundreds of millions of property transactions and their corresponding physical characteristics covering much of the U.S. Methodologically, we show that it is feasible to produce monetary accounts for land that can be directly linked to and integrated with physical land cover/use. Overall, U.S. land cover has shown declines in forests, cropland, and pasture with increases in barren, scrub/shrub, and developed classes, which are particularly concentrated in the U.S. Southeast. Nominal land values in the U.S. fell about 28% ($7 trillion) from the boom to bust periods in the prior decade, albeit with substantial regional variation, and have subsequently experienced a nearly full recovery in recent years. We estimate private land in the contiguous 48 states to be worth approximately $25.1 trillion in 2016.
The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts and trade-offs of scenarios representing movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM + ESM). Our approach provides the first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of a tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. For the five Amazon focal countries, namely, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador, we find that a tipping point would create economic losses of US$256.6 billion in cumulative gross domestic product by 2050. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in intensifying agriculture in cleared lands, climate-adapted agriculture and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth and a return on investment of US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can support the design of regional development strategies for the Amazon biome, build the business case for action and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable policy implementation.
The oil and gas industry has been a powerful driver of economic change in coastal Louisiana for the latter half of the 20th century and into the 21st. Yet, the overall impact of the industry on the economic well-being of host communities is varied, both spatially and temporally. While the majority of Louisiana’s oil and gas production now occurs offshore, processing the extracted product is an energy-intensive undertaking requiring an expansive network of land-based infrastructure. Despite the positive economic aspects of this development, there are also potential negatives posed to coastal ecosystems and to communities located adjacent to oil and gas infrastructure. This research utilizes a double exposure framework to explore the relationship between oil and gas infrastructure development, fish and shellfish habitat, and economic well-being in Louisiana’s coastal zone from 1950 to 2010. The approach followed four main steps: (1) Developing a hazardousness of place model to identify areas of magnified risk due to the combined hazards of multiple potential exposure sites related to the extraction and processing of crude oil and natural gas; (2) developing a model of ecological functioning to measure the ability of aquatic habitat to support key fish and shellfish species; (3) utilizing an integrated community economic well-being index to assess change on a decadal timescale; and (4) analyzing selected oil-dependent communities to illustrate how change processes occurring in different energy sectors result in differential outcomes. The results suggest that, for many communities, the dependence on the oil and gas industry has increased economic well-being but also increased sensitivity to natural and human-induced changes, including fluctuating economic conditions, environmental stress, coastal habitat destruction, and increasing social and economic pressures.
In post-conflict Colombia, the government has prioritized resettlement of displaced people through development of strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital. In this paper, we considered government proposals for expanding payment for ecosystem services (PES) and sustainable silvopastoral systems, and private-sector investment in habitat banking. We coupled the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) with spatially explicit land use and land cover change and ecosystem services models to assess the potential impacts of these programs through the lens of wealth and sustainable economic development. This innovative workflow integrates dynamic endogenous feedbacks between natural capital, ecosystem services and the economic system, and can be applied to other country contexts. Results show that PES and habitat banking programs are strong investment propositions (Net Present Value of US$4.4 and $4.9 billion, respectively), but only when moving beyond conventional economic analysis to include non-market ecosystem services. Where a portfolio investment approach is taken and PES is implemented with sustainable silvopastoral systems, investment returns would reach US$7.1 billion. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the benefits of investing in rural livelihoods and enhancing Colombia’s natural capital base, with empirical evidence to inform the spatial targeting of policies to maximize economic, environmental and social outcomes.
Chile’s Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) commit to carbon neutrality by 2050, with measures to reduce emissions and natural hazards while enhancing water security. The Forestry and Other Land Uses (FOLU) sectors are critical to Chile’s goal of carbon neutrality, as they serve as a net carbon sink. In this paper, we conduct policy scenario analysis focusing on FOLU strategies for meeting the NDCs. We implement the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling framework linked with spatial Land Use-Land Cover and Ecosystem Services (ES) Modeling (IEEM + ESM) to assess impacts on economic, environmental and social indicators. Our results show that the implementation of Chile’s FOLU strategies would reduce emissions, enhance wealth and economic growth and increase future flows of ES. Carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced (by 151 million tons by 2050) to levels that would be considerably better than current Government expectations. Gross Domestic Product and wealth would be bolstered by US$16 065 million and US$22 731 million, respectively. Water-related ES would improve including the quality of potable water, while more water would be maintained within forested ecosystems, thereby reducing the future risk of natural hazards such as landslides and floods. The FOLU strategies would create 72 800 new jobs and reduce poverty by 15 586 individuals. Analysis with IEEM + ESM demonstrates that reducing wildfire-driven forest loss would have outsized impacts and be the most effective and expedient way to contribute to meeting NDC targets. The IEEM + ESM approach is an example of an analytical framework that is meeting growing demand from Government institutions and multilateral development banks for understanding the effects and transition pathways of NDC strategies on economic, social and environmental outcomes.
Quantifying ecosystem services can provide information to justify conservation and restoration decisions so as to allocate limited resources effectively. Consequently, decision makers and public typically ask for simple and understandable information with confidence regarding the availability of the services and the probable economic value. Here, we compiled published information on density enhancement and species life-history information to quantify fish and crustacean production and its uncertainty associated with the current extent of oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) reefs in Mobile Bay, Alabama. We applied Alabama fishing size limits as a cutoff to exclude the production of non-harvestable size individuals. Fishery landing (2005–2015) and Willingness-To-Pay information were used to quantify the economic benefit of the harvestable production enhancement (commercial and recreational production). Sixteen species were found to be production-enhanced in the bay with a mean of 354 ± 182 g m −2 year −1 , of which 170 ± 112 g m −2 year −1 was economically quantifiable based on their harvestable production and landing information. The mean economic value was $509,000 year −1 in direct economic value for commercial fishers and $19.59 million year −1 estimated by the willingnesstopay value from recreational anglers. The results demonstrated a substantial positive economic benefit of ecosystem services from oyster reefs associated with fishery production in Mobile Bay, Alabama. The method could be applied elsewhere to estimate the economic return from the investment of conserving and restoring of similar structured habitats.
In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land-cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future climate scenarios. We then mapped the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. Our results show that land cover type has a very large effect on runoff risk as excess rainfall conditions are 234% more likely in bare soil and 75% more likely in grasslands compared to woody forests and shrublands. In contrast, projected shifts in rainfall intensity by end-of-century show little impact on these probabilities and thus, the risk of runoff. This indicates that the probability of excess rainfall is primarily driven by differences in land cover and not by current or potential shifts in rainfall patterns across the Hawaiian landscape. The ability to estimate the risk of potentially ecologically and economically costly runoff based on changes of land cover is useful for managers focused on invasive species control and restoration planning, especially for native and endemic ecosystems unique to the State of Hawai’i.
Artificial nightlight is increasingly recognized as an important environmental disturbance that influences the habitats and fitness of numerous species. However, its effects on wide‐ranging vertebrates and their interactions remain unclear. Light pollution has the potential to amplify land‐use change, and as such, answering the question of how this sensory stimulant affects behavior and habitat use of species valued for their ecological roles and economic impacts is critical for conservation and land‐use planning. Here, we combined satellite‐derived estimates of light pollution, with GPS‐data from cougars Puma concolor (n = 56), mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (n = 263) and locations of cougar‐killed deer (n = 1562 carcasses), to assess the effects of light exposure on mammal behavior and predator–prey relationships across wildland–urban gradients in the southwestern United States. Our results indicate that deer used the anthropogenic environments to access forage and were more active at night than their wildland conspecifics. Despite higher nightlight levels, cougars killed deer at the wildland–urban interface, but hunted them in the relatively darkest locations. Light had the greatest effect of all covariates on where cougars killed deer at the wildland–urban interface. Both species exhibited functional responses to light pollution at fine scales; individual cougars and deer with less light exposure increasingly avoided illuminated areas when exposed to greater radiance, whereas deer living in the wildland–urban interface selected elevated light levels. We conclude that integrating estimates of light pollution into ecological studies provides crucial insights into how the dynamic human footprint can alter animal behavior and ecosystem function across spatial scales.
Shifts in the demographic and economic character of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) are driving patterns of land cover and land use change in the region. Such changes may have important consequences for ecosystem functioning. The objective of this paper is to quantify the trajectories and rates of change in land cover and use across the GYE for the period 1975-1995 using satellite imagery. Spectral and geographic variables were used as inputs to classification tree regression analysis (CART) to find "rules" which defined land use and land cover classes on the landscape. The resulting CART functions were used to map land cover and land use across seven Landsat TM scenes for 1995. We then used a thresholding technique to identify locations that differed in spectral properties between the 1995 and 1985 time periods. These "changed" locations were classified using CART functions derived from spectral and geographic data from 1985. This was similarly done for the year 1975 based on Landsat MSS data. Differences between the 1975, 1985, and 1995 maps were considered change in land cover and use. We calibrated and tested the accuracy of our models using data acquired through manual interpretation of aerial photos. Elevation and vegetative indices derived from the remotely sensed satellite imagery explained the most variance in the land use and land cover classes (-i.e., defined the "rules" most often). Overall accuracies from our study were good, ranging from 94% at the coarsest level of detail to 74% at the finest. The largest changes over the study period were the increases in burned, urban, and mixed conifer-herbaceous classes and decreases in woody deciduous, mixed woody deciduous-herbaceous, and conifer habitats. These changes have important implications for ecological function and biodiversity. The expansion of mixed conifer classes may increase fuel loads and enhance risk to the growing number of rural homes. The reduction of woody deciduous cover types is likely reducing population sizes for the numerous plant and animal species that specialize on this habitat type. Some of these species are also negatively influenced by the increase of rural homes in and near woody deciduous habitats.
Comparison of several aspects of surface and underground methods of mining for large-scale oil shale extraction in the Piceance Creek Basin suggests that surface mining techniques may have several advantages over underground methods. For a production level of one million barrels of shale oil per day, potential advantages include those related to economics, environmental effects, and the overall national interest. One million barrels of shale oil per day could be produced from 2-3 large surface mines compared to perhaps 10-20 large underground mines. Fewer surface mines would result in: (1) fewer roads and utility corridors, (2) less acres disturbed per barrel of oil pro duced, (3) reduced detrimental effects on ground water and surface water, (4) less wildlife distur bance, (5) a safer overall operation, (6) a greater opportunity to achieve stable long-term land and water reclamation, (7) potential economic advantages related to scale and materials handling, and (8) a three- to five-fold increase in resource recovery. Advantages to underground (including modified in situ [MIS]) mines include: (1) more flexibility of mine siting, (2) mining and handling a minimum of waste rock, and (3) simplified ore grade control for processing.
The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.
Integrated management and policy models suggest that solutions to environmental issues may be linked to the socioeconomic and political Characteristics of a nation. In this study, we empirically explore these suggestions by applying them to the wetland management activities of nations. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate a model of national wetland management effort and one of national wetland protection. Using five predictor variables of social capital, economic capital, environmental and political characteristics, and land-use pressure, the multivariate models were able to explain 60% of the variation in nations' wetland protection efforts based on data from 90 nations, as defined by level of participation, in the international wetland convention. Social capital had the largest direct effect on wetland protection efforts, suggesting that increased social development may eventually lead to better wetland protection. In contrast, increasing economic development had a negative linear relationship with wetland protection efforts, suggesting the need for explicit wetland protection programs as nations continue to focus on economic development. Government, environmental characteristics, and land-use pressure also had a positive direct effect on wetland protection, and mediated the effect of social capital on wetland protection. Explicit wetland protection policies, combined with a focus on social development, would lead to better wetland protection at the national level.
Implementation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) has resulted in the restoration of >2 million ha of wetland and grassland habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Restoration of habitats through these programs provides diverse ecosystem services to society, but few investigators have evaluated the environmental benefits achieved by these programs. We describe changes in wetland processes, functions, and ecosystem services that occur when wetlands and adjacent uplands on agricultural lands are restored through Farm Bill conservation programs. At the scale of wetland catchments, projects have had positive impacts on water storage, reduction in sedimentation and nutrient loading, plant biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat. However, lack of information on the geographic location of restored catchments relative to landscape‐level factors (e.g., watershed, proximity to rivers and lakes) limits interpretation of ecosystem services that operate at multiple scales such as floodwater retention, water quality improvement, and wildlife habitat suitability. Considerable opportunity exists for the USDA to incorporate important landscape factors to better target conservation practices and programs to optimize diverse ecosystem services. Restoration of hydrologic processes within wetlands (e.g., hydroperiod, water level dynamics) also requires a better understanding of the influence of conservation cover composition and structure, and management practices that occur in uplands surrounding wetlands. Although conservation programs have enhanced delivery of ecosystem services in the PPR, the use of programs to provide long‐term critical ecosystem services is uncertain because when contracts (especially CRP) expire, economic incentives may favor conversion of land to crop production, rather than reenrollment. As demands for agricultural products (food, fiber, biofuel) increase, Farm Bill conservation programs will become increasingly important to ensure provisioning of ecosystem services to society, especially in agriculturally dominated landscapes. Thus, continued development and support for conservation programs legislated through the Farm Bill will require a more comprehensive understanding of wetland ecological services to better evaluate program achievements relative to conservation goals.
We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.
In the Indian desert, the economics of mining is second only to agriculture in importance. However, research on the rehabilitation of land disturbed by mining has only recently received serious attention. An attempt has been made to determine both the qualitative and quantitative success of rehabilitation plans used to revegetate limestone mine spoils in an area near Barna, northwest arid India. Rehabilitation success was achieved using a combination of rainwater harvesting techniques, soil amendment application approaches, plant establishment methods and the selection of appropriate germplasm material (trees, shrubs and grasses). It is expected that the resulting vegetative cover will be capable of self-perpetuation under natural conditions while at the same time meeting the land-use needs of the local people. The minespoils have adequate levels of the major nutrients (except P, Mo and Se) for proper plant and grazing animal health. Levels of organic matter are low whereas total B concentrations are exceptionally high. Also, the population of soil fungi, Azotobactor, and nitrifying bacteria is negligible. Enhanced plant growth was achieved in treated plots, compared to control plots, where spoil moisture storage was improved by 5-45 per cent. Due to the decomposition of farmyard manure and nitrogen fixation by planted leguminous plant species, the electrical conductance of treated mine spoils increased threefold, CaCO3 content decreased from 20??0 to 5??2 per cent, and organic carbon, P, K, and biological activity increased significantly. The rehabilitation protocol used at the site appears to have been successful because plant self-regeneration is occurring. The increased diversity of woody perennials resulted in 'dominance' being better shared among species and 'evenness' being increased within the plant community elements. The early to mid-successional trends are continuing for six years following initial rehabilitation. This study developed methods for the rehabilitation of lands mined for limestone and has also resulted in an understanding of rehabilitation processes in arid regions with an emphasis on the long-term monitoring of rehabilitation success. Copyright ?? 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.