Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Journal of Risk Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

Risk assessment and screening for potentially invasive fishes

Preventing the introduction of potentially invasive species is becoming more important as this worldwide problem continues to grow. The ability to predict the identity or range of potential invaders could influence regulatory decisions and help to optimally allocate resources to deal with ongoing invasions. One screening tool presented here, using species life history and environmental tolerances to identify potential invaders similar to past invaders, can be used to predict potential invading species. Another screening tool, genetic algorithms, can be used to predict the potential range of an invading species. Use and further development of tools such as these, that are quantitative and relatively transparent, would give managers and other decision makers more information for making better-informed decisions.

New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Resea↗

Wildfire risk information sources and the acceptability of fuels treatments near select WUI communities in the Western United States

Fuels treatments intended to reduce fuel loads and improve forest health on public lands offer one way to reduce wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where the natural and built environments meet. However, for fuels treatment implementation to be successful, it must comply with regulatory and scientific standards and be supported by local communities, as lack of acceptance can lead to alterations, delays, or abandonment. To foster support, public land managers can engage directly with residents in communities near treatment areas through various communication channels or engage indirectly through trusted local partners. This research uses paired household survey and observed parcel-level wildfire risk assessment data to investigate wildfire risk information sources' role in the acceptability of fuels treatment approaches on public lands near select WUI communities in the Western United States. We find that information deemed useful from sources is often positively correlated with acceptability, while information deemed not useful is sometimes negatively correlated. Local sources of information tend to be widely received, perceived as useful, and have positive correlations with acceptability, while nonlocal sources vary in their receipt, perceived usefulness, and correlations with acceptability. Public land managers, particularly those from national organizations, may benefit from leveraging and aligning messaging with trusted local partners. Developing fuels treatment plans that consider existing local sentiments may facilitate public trust in managers and acceptability of treatments.

Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming↗

Synthesis of larval lamprey responses to dewatering: State of the science, critical uncertainties, and management implications

Objective Dewatering of fine sediments in rivers and streams can kill many thousands of larval lampreys (order Petromyzontiformes) that are burrowed in these habitats. The larval life stage for lampreys lasts 3–10 years, and because larvae often aggregate in large numbers, negative impacts from dewatering could potentially deplete local populations and affect multiple year-classes. Larval lampreys have not traditionally been considered during instream projects, but recent efforts to increase awareness of lamprey habitats have resulted in guidance on dewatering approaches to limit impacts to lampreys. Salvage efforts to rescue and relocate lampreys aim to mitigate losses, but a lack of understanding of lamprey responses limits the optimization of dewatering and salvage procedures. Methods We summarize the state of the science for nine factors that influence larval lamprey ( Entosphenus and Lampetra spp.) responses to dewatering, including burrowing depth, the prevalence and timing of emergence, movements, survival, shoreline slope, dewatering rate, light, and lamprey size. Result Research suggests that (1) shoreline slope influences movement capability, (2) hot and sunny conditions increase the risk of mortality, (3) salvage activities cause minimal direct mortality, and (4) smaller larvae are especially vulnerable to negative impacts from dewatering because they are more likely to emerge and are less capable of movement. Critical uncertainties associated with dewatering include cues that drive emergence, the influence of sediment composition and stratigraphy, vertical distribution of larvae in natural settings, use of the hyporheic zone, the scale of predation losses, and the effectiveness and impacts of salvage activities. Conclusion Balancing investments in salvage operations and lamprey exclusion efforts (e.g., screening) and developing field survey approaches to evaluate lamprey use of the hyporheic zone are identified management implications and research needs. Addressing the critical uncertainties discussed here and providing updated, science-based guidance on dewatering and salvage practices are suggested management actions to support lamprey conservation.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

The social context of carbon sequestration: considerations from a multi-scale environmental history of the Old Peanut Basin of Senegal

This paper presents the results of a multi-scale investigation of environmental change in the Old Peanut Basin of Senegal throughout the 20th century. Based on historical accounts, ethnographies, aerial photos, satellite images, field and household surveys as well as various participatory research activities with farmers in selected villages, the study attempts to make explicit layered scales of analysis, both temporally and spatially. It shows that, despite some general trends of resource degradation in the Old Peanut Basin, local farming systems have embarked on different pathways of change to adapt to their evolving environment. It also illustrates that high diversity with respect to soil fertility management exists at the farm and household level. Finally, the paper proposes a farmer-oriented approach to carbon sequestration in order to integrate recommended technical options more efficiently into the complex and dynamic livelihoods of smallholders in dryland environments. This approach includes pathway-specific land use and management options at the level of farming systems and, at the level of individual households, a basket of possible practices from which farmers can choose depending on their multiple needs, capacities, and adaptive strategies to cope with risk and uncertainty.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

Decision making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north‐western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander ( Salamandra salamandra ) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities. Synthesis and applications . Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori .

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal, emerging disease of cervids associated with transmissible protease-resistant prion proteins. The potential for CWD to cause dramatic declines in deer and elk populations and perceived human health risks associated with consuming CWD-contaminated venison have led wildlife agencies to embark on extensive CWD control programs, typically involving culling to reduce deer populations. We characterized the spatial distribution of CWD in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Wisconsin to facilitate CWD management. We found that CWD prevalence declined with distance from a central location, was locally correlated at a scale of 3.6 km, and was correlated with deer habitat abundance. The latter result is consistent with patterns expected for a positive relationship between density and prevalence of CWD. We recommend management activities focused on culling in geographic areas with high prevalence to have the greatest probability of removing infected individuals. Further research is needed to elucidate the factors in envolved in CWD spread and infection rates, especially the role of density-dependent transmission. ?? Wildlife Disease Association 2006.

Wisconsin↗

Getting the story straight: Common misconceptions around volcanoes and eruptions with case studies of recent events

The ability to rapidly disseminate scientific knowledge across the world has never been greater. This is paralleled by the ability of rumors to spread equally far and fast. Popular misconceptions can take root and, without correction, take on the appearance of facts. Commonly misunderstood topics include those with attention-grabbing phrasing (e.g. “Pacific Ring of Fire”, “supervolcanoes”, or “mega-tsunamis”), the intersection of volcanic research with high-profile science topics (climate or human health), aspirational science goals (eruption forecasts), and basic terminology (volcanic ash versus smoke, or magma “chambers”). In this paper, we describe eighteen misconceptions grouped in six themes (seismology, volcanoes and climate, systems and structures, volcanic hazards, timescales, photographs and footage) commonly encountered by volcanologists who are actively engaging with the public and media both during and between eruptions. Each misconception description is accompanied by takeaway points and summaries of recent research to assist the reader with the information necessary to describe the issues. Finally, we present seven case studies where incorrect information was widely shared and counteracted at well-known volcanoes and recent eruptions at Mount Agung (Bali, Indonesia), Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), Kīlauea (Hawaii, U.S.A.), Tajogaite (La Palma, Spain), La Soufrière (St. Vincent), Taal Volcano (Philippines), and Yellowstone caldera (U.S.A.). This work is intended to help both volcanologists and non-specialists get the story straight, and to effectively communicate processes and scales of volcanism and volcanic hazards, impacts, and risks.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

Future research needs involving pathogens in groundwater

Contamination of groundwater by enteric pathogens has commonly been associated with disease outbreaks. Proper management and treatment of pathogen sources are important prerequisites for preventing groundwater contamination. However, non-point sources of pathogen contamination are frequently difficult to identify, and existing approaches for pathogen detection are costly and only provide semi-quantitative information. Microbial indicators that are readily quantified often do not correlate with the presence of pathogens. Pathogens of emerging concern and increasing detections of antibiotic resistance among bacterial pathogens in groundwater are topics of growing concern. Adequate removal of pathogens during soil passage is therefore critical for safe groundwater extraction. Processes that enhance pathogen transport (e.g., high velocity zones and preferential flow) and diminish pathogen removal (e.g., reversible retention and enhanced survival) are of special concern because they increase the risk of groundwater contamination, but are still incompletely understood. Improved theory and modeling tools are needed to analyze experimental data, test hypotheses, understand coupled processes and controlling mechanisms, predict spatial and/or temporal variability in model parameters and uncertainty in pathogen concentrations, assess risk, and develop mitigation and best management approaches to protect groundwater.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

A rapid field test for sylvatic plague exposure in wild animals

Plague surveillance is routinely conducted to predict future epizootics in wildlife and exposure risk for humans. The most common surveillance method for sylvatic plague is detection of antibodies to Yersinia pestis F1 capsular antigen in sentinel animals, such as coyotes ( Canis latrans ). Current serologic tests for Y. pestis , hemagglutination (HA) test and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), are expensive and labor intensive. To address this need, we developed a complete lateral flow device for the detection of specific antibodies to Y. pestis F1 and V antigens. Our test detected anti-F1 and anti-V antibodies in serum and Nobuto filter paper samples from coyotes, and in serum samples from prairie dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus ), lynx ( Lynx canadensis ), and black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes ). Comparison of cassette results for anti-F1 and anti-V antibodies with results of ELISA or HA tests showed correlations ranging from 0.68 to 0.98. This device provides an affordable, user-friendly tool that may be useful in plague surveillance programs and as a research tool.

Colorado, Montana, New Mexico↗

Do well-connected landscapes promote road-related mortality?

Cost surface (CS) models have emerged as a useful tool to examine the interactions between landscapes patterns and wildlife at large-scale extents. This approach is particularly relevant to guide conservation planning for species that show vulnerability to road networks in human-dominated landscapes. In this study, we measured the functional connectivity of the landscape in southern Portugal and examined how it may be related to stone marten road mortality risk. We addressed three questions: (1) How different levels of landscape connectivity influence stone marten occurrence in montado patches? (2) Is there any relation between montado patches connectivity and stone marten road mortality risk? (3) If so, which road-related features might be responsible for the species’ high road mortality? We developed a series of connectivity models using CS scenarios with different resistance values given to each vegetation cover type to reflect different resistance to species movement. Our models showed that the likelihood of occurrence of stone marten decreased with distance to source areas, meaning continuous montado. Open areas and riparian areas within open area matrices entailed increased costs. We found higher stone marten mortality on roads in well-connected areas. Road sinuosity was an important factor influencing the mortality in those areas. This result challenges the way that connectivity and its relation to mortality has been generally regarded. Clearly, landscape connectivity and road-related mortality are not independent.

European Journal of Wildlife Research↗

Before the first meal: The elusive pre-feeding juvenile stage of the sea lamprey

Although sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Laurentian Great Lakes have been studied intensively for more than 70 years, many questions remain about their complex life cycle. One of the least understood portions is the post-metamorphic stage (hereafter pre-feeding juvenile, PFJ) that occurs prior to parasitic feeding. PFJ must emerge from stream sediments and migrate downstream into nearshore feeding areas. Key uncertainties include the internal and exogenous triggers that regulate the timing and duration of the migration, and the mechanisms the animal uses to navigate, avoid predators, and locate their first host. However, many of these factors may vary predictably among natal streams in response to stable geomorphological and hydraulic characteristics that regulate the timing of movements (e.g., flood phenology), energetic costs (e.g., stream length), and risk (e.g., predator density). An improved understanding of the PFJ stage presents two opportunities to improve the success of sea lamprey control: (1) identification of streams where natural mortality during the PFJ stage is high, allowing for the reallocation of larval control to streams more likely to produce successful parasites, and (2) removal or killing of PFJs in streams where natural mortality is low. Either approach represents an opportunity to limit parasitic damage to valuable fish stocks. Here, we review the state of knowledge of the PFJ stage and identify critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, could facilitate sea lamprey assessment and control by exploiting the behavior of PFJ as they outmigrate from streams in search of their first meal.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger “noise” has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth’s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5–2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, A SL (t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying A SL (t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Open-File Report↗

Pathogenicity of West Nile virus and response to vaccination in sandhill cranes ( Grus canadensis ) using a killed vaccine

West Nile virus was introduced into the United States in the vicinity of New York, New York, USA in 1999. The virus has since killed large numbers of birds nationwide, especially, but not limited to, crows ( Corvus brachyrhinchos ). One sandhill crane ( Grus canadensis ) at the Bridgeport Zoo (Bridgeport, Connecticut, USA) reportedly died from West Nile virus, so sandhill cranes and endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ), both in the wild and in captive breeding colonies at United States Geological Service (USGS) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (Laurel, Maryland, USA) were considered at risk. A killed vaccine in sandhill cranes was evaluated by vaccinating and then challenging these cranes with live West Nile virus. No sandhill cranes inoculated with the killed vaccine developed significant titers when compared with unvaccinated controls. No sandhill cranes inoculated with the vaccine and challenged with the virus died from West Nile virus infection. In addition, no unvaccinated challenged sandhill cranes died. However, 2 days postchallenge, vaccinated cranes had significantly less viremia (P < 0.05) than unvaccinated cranes. Seven days postchallenge vaccinated cranes had significantly less cloacal shedding of the virus (P < 0.05) than unvaccinated cranes and significantly less weight loss (P < 0.05) as compared with unvaccinated cranes. Vaccinated sandhill cranes developed significantly higher titers 14 days postchallenge and were viremic for shorter periods of time after challenge than unvaccinated individuals. Unvaccinated challenged cranes had glial cell aggregates in both the brain and brain stem areas, and this was not observed in vaccinated challenged cranes or in vaccinated unchallenged cranes.

Journal of Zoo and Wildlife Medicine↗

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

California↗

Golden Eagle perch site use in the U.S. southern plains: Understanding electrocution risk

Electrocution on overhead electric systems is a primary cause of anthropogenic mortality for Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) in North America. Distribution poles supporting energized equipment are most often involved in electrocutions, but the frequency with which Golden Eagles perch on pole supporting equipment is unknown. To resolve questions of perch frequency, and by extension, electrocution risk and mitigation prioritization, we used Google Earth to identify perch locations of GPS-transmittered preadult Golden Eagles, and specifically to identify perching on poles supporting transformers. We used transformer poles as a proxy for electrocution risk because transformers are visible in Google Earth imagery. We examined 105 randomly selected “perch events” for each of 10 Golden Eagles ( n = 1050 perch events total) tracked for a mean of 16 consecutive mo after fledging. The most frequently used perch sites were cliffs (24.6%), trees (21.2%), and hills (16.6%). Across individuals, 10.8% of perches were on overhead electric systems (individual ranges = 0.0–34.3%). Seven Golden Eagles perched on a distribution pole at least once. Of these, five perched on a transformer pole at least once. Perching on transformer poles occurred more frequently than expected given the proportion of transformer poles present (Yates’ χ 2 = 26.5, P < 0.001). Given the frequency of perching on transformer poles revealed in this study and the frequency of electrocution on equipment poles revealed in previous studies, the data suggest that electrocution mitigation measures should be focused on equipment poles. Future research should quantify perching across a wider variety of habitats and Golden Eagle age and sex to identify whether the patterns reported here occur more broadly.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗

Adaptive restoration of river terrace vegetation through iterative experiments

Restoration projects can involve a high degree of uncertainty and risk, which can ultimately result in failure. An adaptive restoration approach can reduce uncertainty through controlled, replicated experiments designed to test specific hypotheses and alternative management approaches. Key components of adaptive restoration include willingness of project managers to accept the risk inherent in experimentation, interest of researchers, availability of funding for experimentation and monitoring, and ability to restore sites as iterative experiments where results from early efforts can inform the design of later phases. This paper highlights an ongoing adaptive restoration project at Zion National Park (ZNP), aimed at reducing the cover of exotic annual Bromus on riparian terraces, and revegetating these areas with native plant species. Rather than using a trial-and-error approach, ZNP staff partnered with academic, government, and private-sector collaborators to conduct small-scale experiments to explicitly address uncertainties concerning biomass removal of annual bromes, herbicide application rates and timing, and effective seeding methods for native species. Adaptive restoration has succeeded at ZNP because managers accept the risk inherent in experimentation and ZNP personnel are committed to continue these projects over a several-year period. Techniques that result in exotic annual Bromus removal and restoration of native plant species at ZNP can be used as a starting point for adaptive restoration projects elsewhere in the region.

Utah↗

Beach science in the Great Lakes

Monitoring beach waters for human health has led to an increase and evolution of science in the Great Lakes, which includes microbiology, limnology, hydrology, meteorology, epidemiology, and metagenomics, among others. In recent years, concerns over the accuracy of water quality standards at protecting human health have led to a significant interest in understanding the risk associated with water contact in both freshwater and marine environments. Historically, surface waters have been monitored for fecal indicator bacteria (fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli , enterococci), but shortcomings of the analytical test (lengthy assay) have resulted in a re-focusing of scientific efforts to improve public health protection. Research has led to the discovery of widespread populations of fecal indicator bacteria present in natural habitats such as soils, beach sand, and stranded algae. Microbial source tracking has been used to identify the source of these bacteria and subsequently assess their impact on human health. As a result of many findings, attempts have been made to improve monitoring efficiency and efficacy with the use of empirical predictive models and molecular rapid tests. All along, beach managers have actively incorporated new findings into their monitoring programs. With the abundance of research conducted and information gained over the last 25 years, “Beach Science” has emerged, and the Great Lakes have been a focal point for much of the ground-breaking work. Here, we review the accumulated research on microbiological water quality of Great Lakes beaches and provide a historic context to the collaborative efforts that have advanced this emerging science.

Great Lakes↗

Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers along the Pacific coast of California are constrained by coastal mountain ranges, in contrast to the typical large and low-gradient river deltas and estuaries often used in tidal reach studies. Yet, the impacts of tides are ever-present and considerable to these rivers' habitats and neighboring communities. The impacts of a range of sea-level rise, discharge, and coastal storm conditions on the upstream extent of a spring tidal influence and the associated flood potential are assessed for several coastal rivers across California using coupled Delft3D FLOW-WAVE hydrodynamic simulations that explicitly account for the interactions between waves, currents, surge, and water levels in this study. Projected changes in tidal reach among the various rivers are characterized and implications for adjacent communities and stakeholders are discussed.

California↗