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Results for “Journal of Hydrology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS1982

Natural groundwater recharge in an upland area of central North Dakota, U.S.A.

The magnitude of groundwater recharge to coal aquifers in a 150-km 2 area in west-central North Dakota was determined using three separate approaches: (1) the net water level rise in water-table wells; (2) calculations of the fluid flux between nested piezometers, using the Darcy equation and measured values of hydraulic conductivity and vertical gradients; and (3) evaluation of the inputs to and outputs from the coal aquifer, using a steady-state control volume approach in which the aquifer was divided into semi-rectangular cells bounded by equipotential lines and flow lines. Measurements of potential gradients and hydraulic conductivity permitted indirect determination of all components of flow into and out of the cell except the recharge input, which was determined by difference. All methods yielded consistent results on the order of 0.04-0.01 m yr. −1 These values, which represent 2–9% of the annual precipitation, are consistent with results of other studies on recharge throughout the prairies of North America. Evaluation of site hydrology and stable-isotope data indicates that recharge is restricted in both time and place. Most recharge occurs in late spring and in the fall following heavy rainfall events. During these seasons the ground is not frozen and vegetation is not transpiring large amounts of water. Some recharge may occur during very heavy localized summer storms, but it is not considered volumetrically significant. Major permanent depressions on the site are a source of significant recharge. In addition, the extensive area of ephemeral standing water bodies that result from snowmelt can produce significant amounts of infiltration over the entire site.

central North Dakota↗

USGS2022

Introduction to the special issue on fire impacts on hydrological processes

Fire has been present on the Earth since vegetation began colonizing the continents (Santos et al., 2017). The role of fire on terrestrial sedimentation processes was already highlighted by Schumm (1968) in his pioneering research to understand the detachment, transport, and sedimentation of material on the Planet. The use of fire by humans as a tool that transformed the landscapes of the world has been widely accepted (Wang et al., 1999). Glacial-interglacial changes can affect vegetation with resulting implications for global fire regimes and trace gas emissions (Thonicke et al., 2005). Wildfire effects on vegetation can, in turn, alter soil erosion rates (Lenton, 2001), which is mainly due to the control plants exert on soil erosion processes (López-Vicente et al., 2021).

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics↗

USGS2016

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

Study region Eastern and central Montana. Study focus Fish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period). New hydrological insights for the region Projected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Montana↗

USGS2018

Findings and lessons learned from the assessment of the Mexico-United States transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers: The utility of social science in applied hydrologic research

Study Region This study region encompasses the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers which are shared between the states of Sonora (Mexico) and Arizona (US). Special regional considerations include a semi-arid climate, basin-fill aquifers with predominantly montane recharge areas, economic drivers in the mining, trade, and military sectors, groundwater-dependent cities with expanding cones of depression, interbasin groundwater transfers, ground- and surface-water contamination, and protected aquatic and riparian habitats that act as significant migration corridors for hundreds of species, including some that are threatened and endangered. Study Focus We focus on lessons learned from the hydrologic assessment of the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers. We conducted the work, in two phases: (1) laying the groundwork and (2) implementation. The “laying the groundwork” phase consisted of binational meetings with stakeholders and key actors (agencies and individuals), and the development of an understanding of the physical, institutional, historical, and socio-political context. This led to signing of the binational Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP) agreement in 2009 and detailed the process for cooperation and coordination in the assessment of shared aquifers. The implementation phase began with an agreement to proceed with the study of four “focus” aquifers (Santa Cruz, San Pedro, Mesilla (Conejos-Médanos in Mexico), and Hueco Bolson (Bolsón del Hueco in Mexico)) and development of associated technical teams. Though we do include a brief discussion of the lessons learned from the physical science portion of the study, the results have been described and published elsewhere. The bulk of the paper instead focuses on the findings and lessons learned from the integration of social-science perspectives into a largely physical-science based program, since there is a growing recognition of the need for this type of approach especially in the management and assessment of transboundary aquifers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region The Sonora-Arizona effort succeeded because both countries were adequately represented, and because of flexibility of skills and ability of teams comprising both university and government scientists. Teams included social and earth scientists. Including the social sciences was critical to research design and implementation, and to addressing the cultural, institutional, and socio-political contexts of transboundary aquifer assessment. Significant components of the continuing implementation phase include strategic planning, data compilation and analysis, cross-border integration of datasets, geophysical and geochemical surveys, and internal, peer, and stakeholder engagement.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2006

Increasing streamflow and baseflow in Mississippi River since the 1940 s: Effect of land use change

A trend of increasing streamflow has been observed in the Mississippi River (MR) basin since the 1940 s as a result of increased precipitation. Herein we show that increasing MR flow is mainly in its baseflow as a result of land use change and accompanying agricultural activities that occurred in the MR basin during the last 60 years. Agricultural land use change in the MR basin has affected the basin-scale hydrology: more precipitation is being routed into streams as baseflow than stormflow since 1940 s. We explain that the conversion of perennial vegetation to seasonal row crops, especially soybeans, in the basin since 1940 s may have reduced evapotranspiration, increased groundwater recharge, and thus increased baseflow and streamflow. This explanation is supported with a data analysis of the annually and monthly flow rates at various river stations in the MR basin. Results from this study will help to direct our effort in managing land use and in reducing nutrient levels in MR and other major rivers since nutrient concentrations and loads carried by storm water and baseflow are different. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2023

Long-term mercury loading and trapping dynamics in a Western North America reservoir

Study Region The Carson River including Lahontan Reservoir in Northwestern Nevada, USA Study Focus The discovery, mining, and processing of silver and gold from the Comstock Lode in northwestern Nevada heavily contaminated the Carson River system with mercury (Hg). The river now contains some of the highest recorded water column and bed sediment Hg concentrations reported in peer-reviewed literature. Acute Hg contamination in river and reservoir bed sediment has led to elevated methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations across all trophic levels of Lahontan Reservoir, culminating in significant health risks to humans. Lahontan Reservoir, located downstream from the mills that processed Comstock ore, has served as a Hg trap since the completion of the dam in 1915. Starting in 1997 and extending through 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey has collected and analyzed hundreds of discrete water samples entering and exiting Lahontan Reservoir for unfiltered total Hg (uf.THg), thereby providing a first-of-its-kind opportunity for studying long-term Hg trapping efficiencies within a western North American reservoir. Continuous time series of uf.THg concentration and flux above and below the reservoir were estimated using the weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season with the Kalman filtering (WRTDS-K) method employed with newly developed methods to account for non-natural (i.e., managed) hydrographs below a reservoir. New hydrological insights for the region An estimated 31,650 kg (34.89 US tons) of uf.THg entered Lahontan Reservoir during the 25 year period of analysis, accounting for approximately 0.5% of the total uf.THg estimated to have been released to the Carson River system [6.8 million kg (7500 US tons)] over a multi-decade mining boom. Moreover, approximately 92% of the estimated uf.THg entering Lahontan Reservoir was trapped. On an annual basis, however, trapping efficiencies range between 34% and 98%, and are closely related to the total annual discharge. Results also indicate that flow-normalized uf.THg concentrations and loads above and below the reservoir are trending down.

Nevada↗

USGS2015

Inter-annual and spatial variability of Hamon potential evapotranspiration model coefficients

Monthly calibrated values of the Hamon PET coefficient ( C ) are determined for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The calibrated coefficient values are determined by matching calculated mean monthly Hamon PET to mean monthly free-water surface evaporation. For most locations and months the calibrated coefficients are larger than the standard value reported by Hamon. The largest changes in the coefficients were for the late winter/early spring and fall months, whereas the smallest changes were for the summer months. Comparisons of PET computed using the standard value of C and computed using calibrated values of C indicate that for most of the conterminous U.S. PET is underestimated using the standard Hamon PET coefficient, except for the southeastern U.S.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2013

Quantifying wetland–aquifer interactions in a humid subtropical climate region: An integrated approach

Wetlands are widely recognized as sentinels of global climate change. Long-term monitoring data combined with process-based modeling has the potential to shed light on key processes and how they change over time. This paper reports the development and application of a simple water balance model based on long-term climate, soil, vegetation and hydrological dynamics to quantify groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions at the Norman landfill research site in Oklahoma, USA. Our integrated approach involved model evaluation by means of the following independent measurements: (a) groundwater inflow calculation using stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen ( 16 O, 18 O, 1 H, 2 H); (b) seepage flux measurements in the wetland hyporheic sediment; and (c) pan evaporation measurements on land and in the wetland. The integrated approach was useful for identifying the dominant hydrological processes at the site, including recharge and subsurface flows. Simulated recharge compared well with estimates obtained using isotope methods from previous studies and allowed us to identify specific annual signatures of this important process during the period of study (1997–2007). Similarly, observations of groundwater inflow and outflow rates to and from the wetland using seepage meters and isotope methods were found to be in good agreement with simulation results. Results indicate that subsurface flow components in the system are seasonal and readily respond to rainfall events. The wetland water balance is dominated by local groundwater inputs and regional groundwater flow contributes little to the overall water balance.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2021

Manganese in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, eastern USA—Modeling regional occurrence with pH, redox, and machine learning

Study region : The study was conducted in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, eastern USA, an important water supply in a densely populated region. Study focus : Manganese (Mn), an emerging health concern and common nuisance contaminant in drinking water, is mapped and modeled using the XGBoost machine learning method, predictions of pH and redox conditions from previous models, and other explanatory variables that describe the groundwater flow system and surface characteristics. Methods to address the imbalanced occurrence of elevated and low Mn concentrations are compared and used to more accurately predict concentrations of interest for human health and drinking water quality. New hydrological insights for the region : Elevated Mn concentrations were more likely in shallow groundwater, close to recharge areas and in topographically low areas where soil or unsaturated processes influence groundwater quality. Predicted concentrations greater than the health threshold of 300 micrograms per liter extended across 17 % of the surficial aquifer area, but across <1% of the areas of underlying aquifers. pH and variables related to flow-system position and near-surface processes were more important predictors than the probability of low dissolved oxygen (DO). Mapped variable influence (SHAP values) showed that both pH and DO variables were related to hydrogeologic conditions. Class weights, which improved the predictive ability for elevated Mn without altering the data, was the preferred method to address class imbalance.

Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pe↗

USGS2023

Measuring basin-scale aquifer storage change and mapping specific yield in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, with repeat microgravity data

Study Region The groundwater basin underlying the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. Study Focus The study focuses on changes in groundwater storage and how those changes relate to groundwater-level changes. Groundwater storage change was measured using repeat microgravity at 35 stations from 2016 to 2021. Usually, storage is monitored by converting groundwater-level changes to storage changes using the aquifer storage coefficient, a difficult property to measure. With gravity, storage change can be measured directly. The storage coefficient, or specific yield in an unconfined aquifer, was estimated using the gravity method at individual sites, and a map created showing how this property varies over the region. New Hydrological Insights for the Region For the first time, a map of specific yield was produced based on interpolated maps of gravity-derived storage change and groundwater-level change, allowing inference of this property over a broad region even without collocated monitoring wells and gravity stations. Gravity data indicate aquifer drawdown and recovery mainly occurs in the central part of the basin where pumping is greatest. This spatial distribution is not captured by the more widely spaced monitoring well network. Because the aquifer is recovering from historically greater-magnitude pumping, net-neutral storage change (inflow=outflow) occurs when pumping from the central part of the well field is about 1.54 × 10 7 cubic meters (12,500 acre-feet) per year.

New Mexico↗

USGS2026

Snow simulations predict future changes in rain-on-snow events across the upper Gallatin River watershed, a Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem headwater system

Study region: The upper Gallatin River watershed, an alpine headwater system in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, in Wyoming and Montana. Study focus: As global and regional air temperatures rise, mountain headwaters across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) are projected to see more precipitation falling as rain. While the hydrologic effects of this snow-to-rain transition depends on a variety of factors, it can lead to an increased occurrence of rain-on-snow (RoS) events. To investigate these changes, we used high-resolution (30 m) SnowModel simulations of the upper Gallatin River watershed. Simulations were run for 2001-2013 using two scenarios: (1) historical meteorology as control and (2) pseudo global warming (PGW) where control air temperature and precipitation conditions were perturbed to represent mean end-of-century conditions under a high-emissions scenario. New hydrological insights for the region: SnowModel outputs show that changes in PGW precipitation and snow accumulation varied with elevation. Warmer air temperatures at low elevations (< 2,500 m) led to less snow accumulation and less precipitation falling as snow. Colder baseline air temperatures for elevations above 2,500 meters (m) resulted in minor reductions in winter snowfall fraction. For PGW simulations, spring (April-June) months were rainier, and elevations above 2,500 m experienced more RoS events. Snowpacks between 2,500-3,100 m generated more snowmelt during RoS events, which was reflected in the watershed average. More high-intensity melt events can affect aquatic habitat, water quality, and the accuracy of streamflow forecasts across the region.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Hydrometeorology and hydrology of flooding in Cape Fear River basin during Hurricane Florence in 2018

Hurricanes are the major flood generating mechanism dominating the upper tail of the peak discharge distribution over the Cape Fear River Basin (CFRB). In 2018, Hurricane Florence swamped CFRB as the ninth-most-destructive hurricane ever hit the United States and set new records of peak discharges over the main river channel and three out of five of its major tributaries. In this study, we examined the hydrometeorology and hydrology of this flood via combined observation and numerical experiment analyses. Our results suggest that the slow-motion in combination to the “L-shaped” path was the most distinctive feature of the hurricane that incurred catastrophic and widespread rainfall and flooding over CFRB. The total rainfall from the storm played a controlling role in the magnitude and spatial distribution of the flood peaks at basin scale. Above that, the spatial heterogeneities of rainfall distribution and hydrologic characteristics was responsible for the distinctive flood responses within the basin. The bi-peak shape of the flood hydrograph for the Deep River was due to the combined effects of rainfall distribution, land cover, and topographic gradient. The exceptional unit peak discharge over the Black River basin was associated with its drainage network structure, topographic gradient and rainfall distribution. The floodplain downstream of the Cape Fear River temporarily stored flood water and attenuated both the riverine floods from upstream and the compound flood over the coastal area. Furthermore, numerical analyses found that re-infiltration accounted for 76% of the total infiltration on average. Re-infiltration was superior to local infiltration over CFRB during Hurricane Florence.

North Carolina↗

USGS2020

Machine-learning models to map pH and redox conditions in groundwater in a layered aquifer system, Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, eastern USA

Study region The study was conducted in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, in the eastern USA. Study focus Groundwater pH and redox conditions are fundamental chemical characteristics controlling the distribution of many contaminants of concern for drinking water or the ecological health of receiving waters. In this study, pH and redox conditions were modeled and mapped in a complex, layered aquifer system. Machine-learning methods (boosted regression trees) were applied to data from 3000 to 5000 wells. Predicted pH and the probability of anoxic conditions, defined by three thresholds of dissolved oxygen (0.5, 1, and 2 mg/L), were mapped at the 1-km 2 scale for each of 10 regional aquifer layers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Maps depict the extent of acidic groundwater and oxic conditions in the shallow, unconfined surficial aquifer and in unconfined, recharge-proximal areas of underlying aquifers, in contrast to alkaline and anoxic groundwater elsewhere. Geographic patterns and influential predictors–including elevation, overlying confining-units thickness, and simulated groundwater age and flux–are consistent with prior understanding of the processes controlling pH and redox in the aquifer system. The model-based maps support robust estimates of aquifer proportions, either areal or volumetric, likely to contain groundwater of a specified quality or be vulnerable to specific pH- or redox-sensitive contaminants. The machine-learning methods were an effective tool to map groundwater quality at the regional scale.

New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia↗

USGS2026

Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed

Study region The Russian River watershed, situated in coastal, northern California, experiences hydrologic extremes, including periodic droughts and flooding. Water managers are working to maintain sustainable water supplies and environmental flows, while mitigating flood risks. Study focus This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region The direct connection between streams and aquifers facilitated both annual aquifer replenishment by high winter streamflows and streamflow depletion by groundwater wells (19 % of pumped groundwater in alluvial aquifers from stream leakage) during critical low flow periods. Simulated streamflow changes included 59 % longer and 54 % more severe streamflow droughts, 26 % lower seasonal low streamflows, and up to 125 % higher peak streamflows, averaged over future climate and water use scenarios, suggesting increased future flood and water availability risks. Results showed the importance of reservoir operations for mitigating the impacts of increased hydroclimatic volatility, despite a decrease in reservoir reliability at Lake Mendocino, suggesting that reservoir management may be used to decrease future risks.

California↗

USGS2025

Leveraging airborne imaging spectroscopy and multispectral satellite imagery to map glacial sediment plumes in Kachemak Bay, Alaska

Study Region Kachemak Bay is a fjord-type estuary in the northern Gulf of Alaska. Water quality and habitat characteristics are strongly influenced by freshwater and sediment input from multiple glacierized catchments. Study Focus We present a new method combining imaging spectroscopy from an airborne survey with Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery to map water surface turbidity originating from glacial runoff based on spectral abundance. We compare the spectral characteristics of turbid glacial water to clear water and generate a high resolution reference map of glacial turbidity in Kachemak Bay. This informs the subsequent analysis of a homogenized, Rayleigh corrected time series of Landsat and Sentinel-2 images and seasonal patterns of turbidity. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Our results provide the most comprehensive data set on water surface turbidity in Kachemak Bay to date and improve understanding of spatial and seasonal variability of glacial turbidity in a data sparse region. July and August have the largest plumes with median sizes around 150 km 2 "> 2 , or around a quarter of Kachemak Bay. Plume sizes typically decrease with decreasing glacier runoff in September and October. We show that imaging spectroscopy aids assessments of turbid water in glacial marine catchments across scales. Leveraging high resolution spectral information allows for water color analyses that are customized to local conditions and catchment characteristics as well as scalable to wider regions.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Effects of climate on temporal variability in streamflow and salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Study Region The Upper Colorado River Basin, a critical water source for more than 40 million people in the western United States. Study Focus Potential decreasing streamflow and elevated salinity concentrations threaten this resource. Climate variability has a large and well-studied effect on streamflow in the basin; however, the effect on salinity loading is less understood. This study investigates how snowpack dynamics, precipitation volume, and air temperature affect both streamflow and salinity at the basin scale from water years 1986–2021. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Climate variables explained 54 % of streamflow variability and 40 % of salinity variability across the basin. Both streamflow and salinity yields have declined in response to climate variability, but their response occurs on different timescales. Streamflow is more sensitive to snowpack, whereas salinity yields respond more strongly to antecedent precipitation. The delayed response of salinity yields may obscure the effects of both climate variability and salinity control measures. Residual analysis identified subbasins where the climate-salinity relation deviated from basin-wide patterns, suggesting that possible anthropogenic or other watershed processes may influence salinity loading in these areas. These novel findings underscore the importance of accounting for climate variability when evaluating long-term trends in streamflow and salinity.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2000

Methodology and application of combined watershed and ground-water models in Kansas

Increased irrigation in Kansas and other regions during the last several decades has caused serious water depletion, making the development of comprehensive strategies and tools to resolve such problems increasingly important. This paper makes the case for an intermediate complexity, quasi-distributed, comprehensive, large-watershed model, which falls between the fully distributed, physically based hydrological modeling system of the type of the SHE model and the lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling system of the type of the Stanford watershed model. This is achieved by integrating the quasi-distributed watershed model SWAT with the fully-distributed ground-water model MODFLOW. The advantage of this approach is the appreciably smaller input data requirements and the use of readily available data (compared to the fully distributed, physically based models), the statistical handling of watershed heterogeneities by employing the hydrologic-response-unit concept, and the significantly increased flexibility in handling stream-aquifer interactions, distributed well withdrawals, and multiple land uses. The mechanics of integrating the component watershed and ground-water models are outlined, and three real-world management applications of the integrated model from Kansas are briefly presented. Three different aspects of the integrated model are emphasized: (1) management applications of a Decision Support System for the integrated model (Rattlesnake Creek subbasin); (2) alternative conceptual models of spatial heterogeneity related to the presence or absence of an underlying aquifer with shallow or deep water table (Lower Republican River basin); and (3) the general nature of the integrated model linkage by employing a watershed simulator other than SWAT (Wet Walnut Creek basin). These applications demonstrate the practicality and versatility of this relatively simple and conceptually clear approach, making public acceptance of the integrated watershed modeling system much easier. This approach also enhances model calibration and thus the reliability of model results. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.Increased irrigation in Kansas and other regions during the last several decades has caused serious water depletion, making the development of comprehensive strategies and tools to resolve such problems increasingly important. This paper makes the case for an intermediate complexity, quasi-distributed, comprehensive, large-watershed model, which falls between the fully distributed, physically based hydrological modeling system of the type of the SHE model and the lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling system of the type of the Stanford watershed model. This is achieved by integrating the quasi-distributed watershed model SWAT with the fully-distributed ground-water model MODFLOW. The advantage of this approach is the appreciably smaller input data requirements and the use of readily available data (compared to the fully distributed, physically based models), the statistical handling of watershed heterogeneities by employing the hydrologic-response-unit concept, and the significantly increased flexibility in handling stream-aquifer interactions, distributed well withdrawals, and multiple land uses. The mechanics of integrating the component watershed and ground-water models are outlined, and three real-world management applications of the integrated model from Kansas are briefly presented. Three different aspects of the integrated model are emphasized: (1) management applications of a Decision Support System for the integrated model (Rattlesnake Creek subbasin); (2) alternative conceptual models of spatial heterogeneity related to the presence or absence of an underlying aquifer with shallow or deep water table (Lower Republican River basin); and (3) the general nature of the integrated model linkage by employing a watershed simulator other than SWAT (Wet Walnut Creek basin). These applications demonstrate the practicality and ve

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2021

Machine learning predictions of mean ages of shallow well samples in the Great Lakes Basin, USA

The travel time or “age” of groundwater affects catchment responses to hydrologic changes , geochemical reactions, and time lags between management actions and responses at down-gradient streams and wells. Use of atmospheric tracers has facilitated the characterization of groundwater ages, but most wells lack such measurements. This study applied machine learning to predict ages in wells across a large region around the Great Lakes Basin using well, chemistry, and landscape characteristics. For a dataset of age tracers in 961 samples, the travel time from the land surface to the sample location was estimated for each sample using parametric functions. The mean travel times were then modeled using a gradient boosting machine (GBM) algorithm with cross validation tuning of model metaparameters. The GBM approach was able to closely match estimated ages for the training data (RMSE = 0.26 natural-log scale years) and provided a reasonable match to testing data (RMSE = 0.84). Of the variables tested, well characteristics (e.g. depth), land use, hydrologic indicators (e.g. topographic wetness index), and water chemistry (e.g. nitrate, fluoride, and pH), substantially affected the predictions of age. GBM prediction was applied to 14,335 groundwater samples with median sample depth of 5.4 m, indicating for the Great Lakes Basin a broad distribution of ages among wells with a median of 32.9 years. Lag times of decades are likely for these wells to respond to changing solute fluxes near land surface. While depth variables most strongly affected predicted mean ages, chemical constituents exhibited smooth trends with age, consistent with prevailing conceptual models of evolving sources and geochemistry flowpaths. The results provide proof of concept for use of readily available variables of well, landscape, and chemical characteristics to improve groundwater age estimates across large regions.

Great Lakes basin↗