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A simplified method for value of information using constructed scales

The value of information is a central concept in decision analysis, used to quantify how much the expected outcome of a decision would be improved if epistemic uncertainty could be resolved prior to committing to a course of action. One of the challenges, however, in quantitative analysis of the value of information is that the calculations are demanding, especially in requiring predictions of outcomes as a function of alternative actions and sources of uncertainty. However, the concept of value of information is important in early framing of some decisions, before such predictions are available. We propose a novel measure of the value of information based on constructed scales (CVOI), grounded in the algebra of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), but requiring less of experts and analysts. The CVOI calculation decomposes EVPI into a contribution representing the relevance of the uncertainty to the decision and a contribution representing the magnitude of uncertainty; constructed ratio scales are then proposed for each contribution. We demonstrate the use of CVOI to identify research priorities related to migratory bird management in the face of climate change.

Decision Analysis

Identifying monitoring information needs that support the management of fish in large rivers

Management actions intended to benefit fish in large rivers can directly or indirectly affect multiple ecosystem components. Without consideration of the effects of management on non-target ecosystem components, unintended consequences may limit management efficacy. Monitoring can help clarify the effects of management actions, including on non-target ecosystem components, but only if data are collected to characterize key ecosystem processes that could affect the outcome. Scientists from across the U.S. convened to develop a conceptual model that would help identify monitoring information needed to better understand how natural and anthropogenic factors affect large river fishes. We applied the conceptual model to case studies in four large U.S. rivers. The application of the conceptual model indicates the model is flexible and relevant to large rivers in different geographic settings and with different management challenges. By visualizing how natural and anthropogenic drivers directly or indirectly affect cascading ecosystem tiers, our model identified critical information gaps and uncertainties that, if resolved, could inform how to best meet management objectives. Despite large differences in the physical and ecological contexts of the river systems, the case studies also demonstrated substantial commonalities in the data needed to better understand how stressors affect fish in these systems. For example, in most systems information on river discharge and water temperature were needed and available. Conversely, information regarding trophic relationships and the habitat requirements of larval fishes were generally lacking. This result suggests that there is a need to better understand a set of common factors across large-river systems. We provide a stepwise procedure to facilitate the application of our conceptual model to other river systems and management goals.

Environmental Management

Using probability difference to compare streamflow information of alternatives for efficient operation of monitoring networks

Efficient operation of streamflow monitoring networks requires investments in technology and labor that provide the greatest benefits from available resources. Economic analyses comparing the costs and benefits from different types of alternatives for monitoring have not been practical to implement. Streamflow information provides a generic measure of benefits that can be incorporated into operational decisions as an objective for monitoring networks. A methodology for comparing how accuracy, monitoring period, and monitoring instead of modeling affects streamflow information is developed from information-theoretic approaches for network design but contributes three novel features: (1) a probability-difference model for conditional probability of monotonically paired variables, (2) explicit discounting of unverified information that may exceed the accuracy of streamflow records, and (3) run analysis to account for non-stationarity in streamflow probabilities. Application of the methodology to the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow monitoring network indicates the value of monitoring period to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow probabilities and, thus, increase streamflow information. The methodology has important limitations, particularly for sites with non-perennial streamflow, but demonstrates that probability difference could be used to evaluate operational alternatives to increase the efficiency of monitoring networks.

PLOS Water

88 hours: The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center response to the March 11, 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake

The M 9.0 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and associated tsunami near the east coast of the island of Honshu caused tens of thousands of deaths and potentially over one trillion dollars in damage, resulting in one of the worst natural disasters ever recorded. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS NEIC), through its responsibility to respond to all significant global earthquakes as part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, quickly produced and distributed a suite of earthquake information products to inform emergency responders, the public, the media, and the academic community of the earthquake's potential impact and to provide scientific background for the interpretation of the event's tectonic context and potential for future hazard. Here we present a timeline of the NEIC response to this devastating earthquake in the context of rapidly evolving information emanating from the global earthquake-response community. The timeline includes both internal and publicly distributed products, the relative timing of which highlights the inherent tradeoffs between the requirement to provide timely alerts and the necessity for accurate, authoritative information. The timeline also documents the iterative and evolutionary nature of the standard products produced by the NEIC and includes a behind-the-scenes look at the decisions, data, and analysis tools that drive our rapid product distribution.

Tohoku

Quantitative methods to direct exploration based on hydrogeologic information

Quantitatively Directed Exploration (QDE) approaches based on information such as model sensitivity, input data covariance and model output covariance are presented. Seven approaches for directing exploration are developed, applied, and evaluated on a synthetic hydrogeologic site. The QDE approaches evaluate input information uncertainty, subsurface model sensitivity and, most importantly, output covariance to identify the next location to sample. Spatial input parameter values and covariances are calculated with the multivariate conditional probability calculation from a limited number of samples. A variogram structure is used during data extrapolation to describe the spatial continuity, or correlation, of subsurface information. Model sensitivity can be determined by perturbing input data and evaluating output response or, as in this work, sensitivities can be programmed directly into an analysis model. Output covariance is calculated by the First-Order Second Moment (FOSM) method, which combines the covariance of input information with model sensitivity. A groundwater flow example, modeled in MODFLOW-2000, is chosen to demonstrate the seven QDE approaches. MODFLOW-2000 is used to obtain the piezometric head and the model sensitivity simultaneously. The seven QDE approaches are evaluated based on the accuracy of the modeled piezometric head after information from a QDE sample is added. For the synthetic site used in this study, the QDE approach that identifies the location of hydraulic conductivity that contributes the most to the overall piezometric head variance proved to be the best method to quantitatively direct exploration. ?? IWA Publishing 2006.

Journal of Hydroinformatics

Geographic Names Information System

The Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) is an automated data system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to standardize and disseminate information on geographic names. GNIS provides primary information for all known places, features, and areas in the United States identified by a proper name. The information in the system can be manipulated to meet varied needs. You can incorporate information from GNIS into your own data base for special applications.

Report

An evaluation of the science needs to inform decisions on Outer Continental Shelf energy development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to conduct an initial, independent evaluation of the science needs that would inform the Administration's consideration of the right places and the right ways in which to develop oil and gas resources in the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), particularly focused on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Oil and gas potential is significant in Arctic Alaska. Beyond petroleum potential, this region supports unique fish and wildlife resources and ecosystems, and indigenous people who rely on these resources for subsistence. This report summarizes key existing scientific information and provides initial guidance of what new and (or) continued research could inform decision making. This report is presented in a series of topical chapters and various appendixes each written by a subset of the USGS OCS Team based on their areas of expertise. Three chapters (Chapters 2, 3, and 4) provide foundational information on geology; ecology and subsistence; and climate settings important to understanding the conditions pertinent to development in the Arctic OCS. These chapters are followed by three chapters that examine the scientific understanding, science gaps, and science sufficiency questions regarding oil-spill risk, response, and impact (Chapter 5), marine mammals and anthropogenic noise (Chapter 6), and cumulative impacts (Chapter 7). Lessons learned from the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill are included to identify valuable "pre-positioned" science and scientific approaches to improved response and reduced uncertainty in damage assessment and restoration efforts (appendix D). An appendix on Structured Decision Making (appendix C) is included to illustrate the value of such tools that go beyond, but incorporate, science in looking at what can/should be done about policy and implementation of Arctic development. The report provides a series of findings and recommendations for consideration developed during the independent examination of science gaps and sufficiency. These recommendations are important for understanding what the USGS discovered in the course of this study and to help inform and improve decision making.

Circular

Using monitoring and partnerships to provide management-relevant information about Chesapeake Bay rivers

The lands and waters of the Chesapeake Bay watershed provide more than $100 billion in economic benefits—an amount that is expected to increase by achieving the region’s clean-water goals. Achieving those goals requires accurate and timely information about the health of the watershed’s rivers and streams. The Chesapeake Bay nontidal monitoring network (NTN), a partnership of local, state, and federal agencies, as well as other partners, was established in 2004 to provide this information. The U.S. Geological Survey analyzes data collected from NTN stations to provide monitoring-based information about the amount of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment entering the Chesapeake Bay through its nontidal rivers. Thus, data collected from the NTN inform watershed management by providing decision makers with information on which to base their restoration and conservation actions.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

A Review and Synthesis of the Scientific Information Related to the Biology and Management of Species of Special Concern at Cape Hatteras National Seashore, North Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey's Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (PWRC) conducted a study for the National Park Service (NPS) Southeast Region, Atlanta, GA, and Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina to review, evaluate, and summarize the available scientific information for selected species of concern at CAHA (piping plovers, sea turtles, seabeach amaranth, American oystercatchers, and colonial waterbirds). This work consisted of reviewing the scientific literature and evaluating the results of studies that examined critical life history stages of each species, and focused on the scientific findings reported that are relevant to the management of these species and their habitats at CAHA. The chapters that follow provide the results of that review separately for each species and present scientifically based options for resource management at CAHA. Although no new original research or experimental work was conducted, this synthesis of the existing information was peer reviewed by over 15 experts with familiarity with these species. This report does not establish NPS management protocols but does highlight scientific information on the biology of these species to be considered by NPS managers who make resource management decisions at CAHA. To ensure that the best available information is considered when assessing each species of interest at CAHA, this review included published research as well as practical experience of scientists and wildlife managers who were consulted in 2005. PWRC scientists evaluated the literature, consulted wildlife managers, and produced an initial draft that was sent to experts for scientific review. Revisions based on those comments were incorporated into the document. The final draft of the document was reviewed by NPS personnel to ensure that the description of the recent status and management of these species at CAHA was accurately represented and that the report was consistent with our work agreement. The following section summarizes the biological information relevant to resource management for the species of concern at CAHA.

Open-File Report

Assessing the socioeconomic impact and value of open geospatial information

The production and accessibility of geospatial information including Earth observation is changing greatly both technically and in terms of human participation. Advances in technology have changed the way that geospatial data are produced and accessed, resulting in more efficient processes and greater accessibility than ever before. Improved technology has also created opportunities for increased participation in the gathering and interpretation of data through crowdsourcing and citizen science efforts. Increased accessibility has resulted in greater participation in the use of data as prices for Government-produced data have fallen and barriers to access have been reduced. The increase in participation in the production and in the use of data, defined as data democracy for this workshop, are having great impacts on economics and more generally on society. There is also a strong drive by governments around the world, as shown by the G8 Declaration in June 2013, to make public sector information and scientific data more widely accessible. These are respectively termed “open data” and “open research data.” This report summarizes discussion at the Workshop on Assessing the Impact and Value of Open Geospatial Information held at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. in October 2014. Workshop participants examined the consequences of expanding data democracy with a focus on its socioeconomic impacts. Evaluations were presented of state-of-the-art methods to assess these socioeconomic impacts, which included position papers and remarks by discussants. The workshop included discussions about the following topics: (1) increased and expanded information sources; (2) societal impacts, including approaches to economics assessments; (3) constraints to open access, including the demands for return on investment, specifications of intellectual property rights, and privacy issues; and (4) learning from the experiences of other data-rich domains, such as environmental management, internet businesses, health, and transportation. The workshop was a working meeting with strong participant engagement, leading to recommendations for action. The meeting included five topic-driven sessions and keynote presentations. Precirculated position papers for each panel session facilitated preparation and remarks by discussants. After the position papers are updated following the discussants’ remarks, it is planned to submit them for publication. The workshop included 68 participants coming from international organizations, the U.S. public and private sectors, nongovernmental organizations, and academia. Participants included policy makers and analysts, financial analysts, economists, information scientists, geospatial practitioners, and other discipline experts.

Open-File Report

A linked GeoData map for enabling information access

Overview The Geospatial Semantic Web (GSW) is an emerging technology that uses the Internet for more effective knowledge engineering and information extraction. Among the aims of the GSW are to structure the semantic specifications of data to reduce ambiguity and to link those data more efficiently. The data are stored as triples, the basic data unit in graph databases, which are similar to the vector data model of geographic information systems (GIS); that is, a node-edge-node model that forms a graph of semantically related information. The GSW is supported by emerging technologies such as linked geospatial data, described below, that enable it to store and manage geographical data that require new cartographic methods for visualization. This report describes a map that can interact with linked geospatial data using a simulation of a data query approach called the browsable graph to find information that is semantically related to a subject of interest, visualized using the Data Driven Documents (D3) library. Such a semantically enabled map functions as a map knowledge base (MKB) (Varanka and Usery, 2017). A MKB differs from a database in an important way. The central element of a triple, alternatively called the edge or property, is composed of a logic formalization that structures the relation between the first and third parts, the nodes or objects. Node-edge-node represents the graphic form of the triple, and the subject-property-object terms represent the data structure. Object classes connect to build a federated graph, similar to a network in visual form. Because the triple property is a logical statement (a predicate), the data graph represents logical propositions or assertions accepted to be true about the subject matter. These logical formalizations can be manipulated to calculate new triples, representing inferred logical assertions, from the existing data. To demonstrate a MKB system, a technical proof-of-concept is developed that uses geographically attributed Resource Description Framework (RDF) serializations of linked data for mapping. The proof-of-concept focuses on accessing triple data from visual elements of a geographic map as the interface to the MKB. The map interface is embedded with other essential functions such as SPARQL Protocol and RDF Query Language (SPARQL) data query endpoint services and reasoning capabilities of Apache Marmotta (Apache Software Foundation, 2017). An RDF database of the Geographic Names Information System (GNIS), which contains official names of domestic feature in the United States, was linked to a county data layer from The National Map of the U.S. Geological Survey. The county data are part of a broader Government Units theme offered to the public as Esri shapefiles. The shapefile used to draw the map itself was converted to a geographic-oriented JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) (GeoJSON) format and linked through various properties with a linked geodata version of the GNIS database called “GNIS–LD” (Butler and others, 2016; B. Regalia and others, University of California-Santa Barbara, written commun., 2017). The GNIS–LD files originated in Terse RDF Triple Language (Turtle) format but were converted to a JSON format specialized in linked data, “JSON–LD” (Beckett and Berners-Lee, 2011; Sorny and others, 2014). The GNIS–LD database is composed of roughly three predominant triple data graphs: Features, Names, and History. The graphs include a set of namespace prefixes used by each of the attributes. Predefining the prefixes made the conversion to the JSON–LD format simple to complete because Turtle and JSON–LD are variant specifications of the basic RDF concept. To convert a shapefile into GeoJSON format to capture the geospatial coordinate geometry objects, an online converter, Mapshaper, was used (Bloch, 2013). To convert the Turtle files, a custom converter written in Java reconstructs the files by parsing each grouping of attributes belonging to one subject and pasting the data into a new file that follows the syntax of JSON–LD. Additionally, the Features file contained its own set of geometries, which was exported into a separate JSON–LD file along with its elevation value to form a fourth file, named “features-geo.json.” Extracted data from external files can be represented in HyperText Markup Language (HTML) path objects. The goal was to import multiple JSON–LD files using this approach.

Open-File Report

Plan for the design, development, and implementation, and operation of the National Water Information System

The Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey is developing a National Water Information System (NWIS) that will integrate and replace its existing water data and information systems of the National Water Data Storage and Retrieval System, National Water Data Exchange, National Water-Use Information, and Water Resources Scientific Information Center programs. It will be a distributed data system operated as part of the Division 's Distributed Information System, which is a network of computers linked together through a national telecommunication network known as GEONET. The NWIS is being developed as a series of prototypes that will be integrated as they are completed to allow the development and implementation of the system in a phased manner. It also is being developed in a distributed manner using personnel who work under the coordination of a central NWIS Project Office. Work on the development of the NWIS began in 1983 and it is scheduled for completion in 1990. This document presents an overall plan for the design, development, implementation, and operation of the system. Detailed discussions are presented on each of these phases of the NWIS life cycle. The planning, quality assurance, and configuration management phases of the life cycle also are discussed. The plan is intended to be a working document for use by NWIS management and participants in its design and development and to assist offices of the Division in planning and preparing for installation and operation of the system. (Author 's abstract)

Open-File Report

Land use and land cover information and air-quality planning

The land use and land cover information developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site project has been proven useful when used in an improved technique for estimating emissions, diffusion, and impact patterns of sulfur dioxide (S02) and particulate matter. Implementation of plans to control air quality requires land use and land cover information, which, until this time, has been inadequate. The land use and land cover data were used in updating information on the sources of point and area emissions of S02 and particulate matter affecting the Norfolk-Portsmouth area of Virginia for the 1971-72 winter (Dec.-Jan.-Feb.) and the annual 1972 period, and for a future annual period-1985. This emission information is used as input to the Air Quality Display Model of the Environmental Protection Agency to obtain diffusion and impact patterns for the three periods previously mentioned. The results are: (1) During the 1971-72 winter, estimated S02 amounts over an area with southwest-northeast axis in the central section of Norfolk exceeded both primary and secondary levels, (2) future annual levels of S02, estimated by anticipated residential development and point-source changes, are not expected to cause serious deterioration of the region's present air quality, and (3) for the 1971-72 winter, and annual 1972, period the diffusion results showed that both primary and secondary standards for particulate matter are regularly exceeded in central Norfolk and Portsmouth. In addition, on the basis of current control programs, the 1985 levels of particulate matter are expected to exceed the presently established secondary air-quality standards through central Norfolk and Portsmouth and in certain areas of Virginia Beach. Land use and land cover information can be used to estimate emissions for inputs to diffusion models and to interpret the implications of diffusion patterns for: (1) Implementing various control strategies, (2) selecting sites of air sampling stations, and (3) predicting the effects that proposed changes in land use and land cover might have on emission patterns and air quality.

Professional Paper

Proceedings of the U.S. Geological Survey Sixth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop, Denver, Colorado, April 24-28, 2006

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Sixth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop April 24 - 28, 2006, at the Denver Federal Center in Denver, Colorado, provides a unique opportunity for multi-disciplinary Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and associated scientific professionals to share, learn, present, and discuss a wide variety of geospatial-related topics. Information is exchanged through a series of plenary sessions, hands-on technical workshops, user and commercial vendor demonstrations, lecture and poster sessions, and specialty meetings. Workshop attendance is limited to Department of Interior (DOI) and USGS employees and contractors; however, plenary, hands-on, and lecture sessions have presenters from other Federal agencies, numerous commercial vendors, universities, and several consortia. Over 175 participants are expected to attend the Workshop. Several prominent speakers are featured at this Workshop. Monday evening Star Guest Speaker and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Astronaut Captain Dominic Gorie will talk about his experiences as a veteran of three space flights and over 32 days in space, including the NASA Space Shuttle Radar Topography Mission that mapped more than 47 million miles of the Earth's land surface. Selected as an astronaut candidate by NASA in December 1994, Captain Gorie is currently Chief of the Astronaut Shuttle Branch. Monday evening also features a town hall meeting with Geographic Information Office (GIO) leaders Karen Siderelis, Kevin Gallagher, Bob Pierce, Steve Guptill, Mark DeMulder, John Mahoney, and Mark Negri, who will discuss changes and activities within the GIO in an open discussion format. Tuesday plenary sessions feature keynote speaker Dr. P. Patrick Leahy, Acting USGS Director. Dr. Leahy holds undergraduate and graduate degrees in geology (1968) and geophysics (1970) from Boston College. In 1979, he received his doctorate in geology from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, where he specialized in regional ground-water studies and hydraulics. Dr. Leahy has been with the USGS since 1974, and has held various technical and managerial positions, including Associate Director for Geology and Chief of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Dr. Leahy will be discussing a broad range of topics including Bureau accomplishments, initiatives, and budgets. The purpose of this proceedings volume is to serve as an activity reference for Workshop attendees as well as an archive of technical abstracts submitted, presented, and discussed at the Workshop. Author, co-author, and presenter names, affiliations, and contact information are listed with presentation titles along with submitted abstracts. Some hands-on sessions are offered twice. In these instances, abstracts submitted for publication are presented in the proceedings on both days they are offered. All acronyms used in these proceedings are explained in the text of each abstract. The term 'ArcGIS' refers to an integrated collection of GIS software products produced by Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI).

Scientific Investigations Report

Compilation and assessment of resource values and hazards to inform transportation planning and associated land-use planning

Land-use planning has an important role in local, regional, State, and Federal land management, and planning efforts can benefit from consistent, spatially explicit information that can help guide priorities and decisions. The credibility and relevance of information used to inform planning activities depends on the availability of consistent information about the resources and values of interest or concern within the planning area. To support long-range transportation planning and other regional land-use planning efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey gathered, processed, interpreted, and compiled spatial datasets representing a wide range of information on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem condition and importance, cultural (historical) features and places, and natural hazards. This report describes the spatial data compiled to represent natural landscape conditions (including social, cultural, and natural attributes) to estimate the potential importance of lands for wildlife, wild habitats, recreation, and conservation based on abundance of species, habitats, land and water conditions, and conservation designations. Abundance of resources, including the potential number of species, presence of important habitats and protected areas, and proximity to particular features or habitats, indicates the potential sensitivity of the natural landscape to land use, especially transportation networks. The source data, derived indices, and the methods for processing these data are described in this final report. The datasets referenced in the report are available from the U.S. Geological Survey ( https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/ and https://doi.org/10.5066/F7MW2F8W ) or the Central Federal Lands Highway Division of the Office of Federal Lands Highway ( https://flh.fhwa.dot.gov ).

Scientific Investigations Report

Factors affecting uncertainty of public supply, self-supplied domestic, irrigation, and thermoelectric water-use data, 1985–2015—Evaluation of information sources, estimation methods, and data variability

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water-Use Program is responsible for compiling and disseminating the Nation's water-use data. Working in cooperation with local, State, and Federal agencies, the USGS has collected and published national water-use estimates every 5 years, beginning in 1950. These water-use data may vary because of actual changes in water use, because of changes in estimation methods, or because of errors. Comparison and interpretation of these data is difficult without first determining the factors that contribute to data variability. This report describes factors that may affect data quality and documents ways to investigate the variability of public supply, self-supplied domestic, irrigation, and thermoelectric water-use data for the 1985–2015 compilations. The USGS produces national water-use estimates for various categories of water use for every county in the United States. Knowledge about the sources of data for county estimates is important because factors such as estimation methodology and reporting affect data uncertainty Determination of meaningful patterns and trends in the data are contingent on the use of consistent methodology throughout the period of interest. With the many ways that water-use data have been collected, assembled, and estimated, multiple factors likely contribute to data uncertainty, Data used to produce these estimates may be furnished from agencies that collect information from entities who report water use; gaps in reported data are typically estimated to achieve a comprehensive county estimate. For example, public supply and thermoelectric category data are based primarily on furnished site-specific data; whereas crop irrigation is often furnished or estimated at the county scale. Public supply deliveries for domestic use and self-supplied domestic withdrawals are most often estimated by USGS personnel using per capita use rate coefficients. Irrigation may be estimated using crop water requirements, application rates, or other soil water balance methods when furnished reported data are not available. Rates, percentages, medians, and interquartile ranges were used to investigate variability in the water-use data among States, regions, and years. The purposes of these evaluations were to (1) identify extreme values that may reflect changes in information sources, estimation methods, or errors; (2) indicate areas of variable or consistent values that are unexpected; and (3) indicate areas where values change because of local climate or other factors. Where factors are identified that contribute to data variability, such as a change in methodology, additional work could determine uncertainty because of these factors. These evaluations identified the availability of information that is needed to address data limitations. Factors such as estimation methodology affect data quality. Some updates to method codes assigned in 2015 and assignment of method codes to earlier compilation datasets for all categories would provide much needed metadata for users of the data. Improvements in data documentation describing sources of information and estimation methods and additional metadata information from agencies and entities that furnish water-use data, would enable a more complete understanding and depiction of water-use patterns and trends. Additional metadata are needed for users of the data to better understand the water-use data and interpret changes in water use across the United States and with time.

Scientific Investigations Report

A review of grass carp and related species literature on diet, behavior, toxicology, and physiology focused on informing development of controls for invasive grass carp populations in North America

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) are globally important in aquaculture and aquatic vegetation control. However, escaped grass carp have established invasive populations. A targeted keyword search was performed on a carp (order: Cypriniformes) literature database maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey to identify literature relevant to grass carp. Additional sources cited in reviewed documents and provided by numerous reviewers were also included. There were three focus areas designed to provide support for invasive grass carp management: (1) diet and behavior; (2) physiological constraints, toxicity, and biology; and (3) gut physiology. Each focus area provides information to guide development of potential pathways for invasive grass carp control. Information from other carp species was used to fill in gaps where grass carp information was lacking and provide additional, potential research directions. Diet-related information included food selection and aquacultural diet formulations. Behavioral information included stimuli and non-physical barriers to attract, repel, or stop movement. Physiological constraints, toxicology, reproductive control, and biological control provide a research review for control options. Gut physiology and related control pathways provide knowledge to improve toxin or pathogen delivery. This review provides a basis for developing approaches and research for controlling invasive grass carp populations, aquaculture, and native population management.

Fishes

Embracing ensemble species distribution models to inform at-risk species status assessments

Conservation planning depends on reliable information regarding the geographic distribution of species. However, our knowledge of species' distributions is often incomplete, especially when species are cryptic, difficult to survey, or rare. The use of species distribution models has increased in recent years and proven a valuable tool to evaluate habitat suitability for species. However, practitioners have yet to fully adopt the potential of species distribution models to inform conservation efforts for information-limited species. Here, we describe a species distribution modeling approach for at-risk species that could better inform U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's species status assessments and help facilitate conservation decisions. We applied four modeling techniques (generalized additive, maximum entropy, generalized boosted, and weighted ensemble) to occurrence data for four at-risk species proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act ( Papaipema eryngii, Macbridea caroliniana, Scutellaria ocmulgee, and Balduina atropurpurea ) in the Southeastern United States. The use of ensemble models reduced uncertainty caused by differences among modeling techniques, with a consequent improvement of predictive accuracy of fitted models. Incorporating an ensemble modeling approach into species status assessments and similar frameworks is likely to benefit survey efforts, inform recovery activities, and provide more robust status assessments for at-risk species. We emphasize that co-producing species distribution models in close collaboration with species experts has the potential to provide better calibration data and model refinements, which could ultimately improve reliance and use of model outputs.

Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, North Caroli