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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

Identifying the decision to be supported: a review of papers from environmental modelling and software

Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 in Environmental Modelling and Software that used the phrase “decision support system” or “decision support tool”, and which are characteristic of different sectors. In our review, 41% of the systems and tools related to the water resources sector, 34% were related to agriculture, and 22% to the conservation of fish, wildlife, and protected area management. Only 60% of the papers were deemed to be reporting on DSS. This was based on the papers reviewed not having directly identified a specific decision to be supported. We also report on the techniques that were used to identify the decisions, such as formal survey, focus group, expert opinion, or sole judgment of the author(s). The primary underlying modelling system, e.g., expert system, agent based model, Bayesian belief network, geographical information system (GIS), and the like was categorised next. Finally, since decision support typically should target some aspect of unstructured decisions, we subjectively determined to what degree this was the case. In only 23% of the papers reviewed, did the system appear to tackle unstructured decisions. This knowledge should be useful in helping workers in the field develop more effective systems and tools, especially by being exposed to the approaches in different, but related, disciplines. We propose that a standard blueprint for reporting on DSS be developed for consideration by journal editors to aid them in filtering papers that use the term, “decision support”.

Leipzig↗

Allocating harvests among polar bear stocks in the Beaufort Sea

Recognition that polar bears are shared by hunters in Canada and Alaska prompted development of the “Polar Bear Management Agreement for the Southern Beaufort Sea.” Under this Agreement, the harvest of polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) is shared between Inupiat hunters of Alaska and Inuvialuit hunters of Canada. Quotas for each jurisdiction are to be reviewed annually in light of the best available scientific information. Ideal implementation of the Agreement has been hampered by the inability to quantify geographic overlap among bears from adjacent populations. We applied new analytical procedures to a more extensive radiotelemetry data set than has previously been available to quantify that overlap and thereby improve the efficacy of the Agreement. We constructed a grid over the eastern Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea and used twodimensional kernel smoothing to assign probabilities to the distributions of all instrumented bears. A cluster analysis of radio relocation data identified three relatively discrete groups or “populations” of polar bears: the SBS, Chukchi Sea (CS), and northern Beaufort Sea (NBS) populations. With kernel smoothing, we calculated relative probabilities of occurrence for individual members of each population in each cell of our grid. We estimated the uncertainty in probabilities by bootstrapping. Availability of polar bears from each population varied geographically. Near Barrow, Alaska, 50% of harvested bears are from the CS population and 50% from the SBS population. Nearly 99% of the bears taken by Kaktovik hunters are from the SBS. At Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada, 50% are from the SBS and 50% from the NBS population. We displayed the occurrence of bears from each population as probabilities for each cell in our grid and as maps with contour lines delineating changes in relative probability. This new analytical approach will greatly improve the accuracy of allocating harvest quotas among hunting communities and jurisdictions while assuring that harvests remain within the bounds of sustainable yield.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗

High shrew diversity on Alaska's Seward Peninsula: Community assembly and environmental change

In September 2010, 6 species of shrews (genus: Sorex ) were collected at a single locality on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Such high sympatric diversity within a single mammalian genus is seldom realized. This phenomenon at high latitudes highlights complex Arctic community dynamics that reflect significant turnover through time as a consequence of environmental change. Each of these shrew species occupies a broad geographic distribution collectively spanning the entire Holarctic, although the study site lies within Eastern Beringia, near the periphery of all individual ranges. A review of published genetic evidence reflects a depauperate shrew community within ice-free Beringia through the last glaciation, and recent assembly of current diversity during the Holocene.

Alaska↗

A new small-eared shrew of the Cryptotis nigrescens-group from Colombia (Mammalia: Soricomorpha: Soricidae)

Cryptotis colombiana Woodman & Timm, 1993 previously was known from few specimens from two isolated regions in the Cordillera Central and Cordillera Oriental of Colombia. Recent collecting in the northern Cordillera Central and review of older collections from the central Cordillera Oriental in the vicinity of Bogota yielded additional specimens that permit reevaluation of the two geographic populations of these small-eared shrews. Morphological and morphometrical studies indicate that the population inhabiting the Cordillera Oriental represents a distinct, previously unrecognized species that I describe herein as Cryptotis brachyonyx. Study of 54 specimens of shrews from the Cordillera Oriental in systematic collections in North America, South America, and Europe yielded only four specimens of the new species, all collected before 1926. The paucity of modern specimens suggests that C. brachyonyx may be extremely restricted in distribution, or possibly extinct.

Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washingto↗

Exposure, sensitivity, or adaptive capacity? Reviewing assessments that use only two of three elements of climate change vulnerability

As climate change accelerates, understanding which species are most vulnerable and why they are vulnerable will be vital to inform conservation action. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are tools to assess species' responses to climate change, detect drivers of vulnerability, and inform conservation planning. CCVAs are commonly composed of three elements: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Incorporating all three elements can be challenging, and including only two of the three elements may be a more feasible approach in many systems. Although two-element CCVA approaches have become more common, their utility and procedures remain poorly documented. We conducted a literature review to explore the scope, methods, and rationale of CCVAs that use a two-element approach to assess vertebrate vulnerability. Despite the potential to expand CCVAs into understudied systems, two-element assessments had similar geographic and taxonomic biases as those previously detected in CCVAs in general. Methods varied, yet we found that variables used in two-element studies could be condensed into standardized categories to enhance comparability. Finally, limitations in data availability and computational resources were common rationales for using a two-element approach. By clarifying the purposes, opportunities, and limitations of two-element assessment, this review can aid in selecting appropriate methods for CCVAs.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD3): North polar region (MC-1) distribution, applications, and volume estimates

The Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD 3 ) now extends from 90°N to 65°S. The recently released north polar portion (MC‐1) of MGD 3 adds ~844 000 km 2 of moderate‐ to large‐size dark dunes to the previously released equatorial portion (MC‐2 to MC‐29) of the database. The database, available in GIS‐ and tabular‐format in USGS Open‐File Reports, makes it possible to examine global dune distribution patterns and to compare dunes with other global data sets (e.g. atmospheric models). MGD 3 can also be used by researchers to identify areas suitable for more focused studies. The utility of MGD 3 is demonstrated through three example applications. First, the uneven geographic distribution of the dunes is discussed and described. Second, dune‐derived wind direction and its role as ground truth for atmospheric models is reviewed. Comparisons between dune‐derived winds and global and mesoscale atmospheric models suggest that local topography may have an important influence on dune‐forming winds. Third, the methods used here to estimate north polar dune volume are presented and these methods and estimates (1130 km 3 to 3250 km 3 ) are compared with those of previous researchers (1158 km 3 to 15 000 km 3 ). In the near future, MGD 3 will be extended to include the south polar region.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

Calcium-Carbonate hardness of public water supplies in the conterminous United States

Geographic variations in the hardness of water seem to parallel the geographic variations in certain cardiovascular diseases (Anderson and others, 1969; Biorck and others, 1965; Schroeder, 1966). Winton and McCabe (1970) have provided a recent review of the problem. The map, presented here, showing calcium-carbonate hardness of municipal raw-water sources in the conterminous United States has been compiled to provide data for further examination of correlations between water hardness and cardiovascular diseases.

Book chapter↗

Characterization of Plasmodium relictum, a cosmopolitan agent of avian malaria

Background Microscopic research has shown that Plasmodium relictum is the most common agent of avian malaria. Recent molecular studies confirmed this conclusion and identified several mtDNA lineages, suggesting the existence of significant intra-species genetic variation or cryptic speciation. Most identified lineages have a broad range of hosts and geographical distribution. Here, a rare new lineage of P. relictum was reported and information about biological characters of different lineages of this pathogen was reviewed, suggesting issues for future research. Methods The new lineage pPHCOL01 was detected in Common chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, and the parasite was passaged in domestic canaries Serinus canaria . Organs of infected birds were examined using histology and chromogenic in situ hybridization methods. Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes, Zebra finch Taeniopygia guttata, Budgerigar Melopsittacus undulatus and European goldfinch Carduelis carduelis were exposed experimentally. Both Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood analyses identified the same phylogenetic relationships among different, closely-related lineages pSGS1, pGRW4, pGRW11, pLZFUS01, pPHCOL01 of P. relictum. Morphology of their blood stages was compared using fixed and stained blood smears, and biological properties of these parasites were reviewed. Results Common canary and European goldfinch were susceptible to the parasite pPHCOL01, and had markedly variable individual prepatent periods and light transient parasitaemia. Exo-erythrocytic and sporogonic stages were not seen. The Zebra finch and Budgerigar were resistant. Neither blood stages nor vector stages of all examined P. relictum lineages can be distinguished morphologically. Conclusion Within the huge spectrum of vertebrate hosts, mosquito vectors, and ecological conditions, different lineages of P. relictum exhibit indistinguishable, markedly variable morphological forms. Parasites of same lineages often develop differently in different bird species. Even more, the variation of biological properties (parasitaemia dynamics, blood pathology, prepatent period) in different isolates of the same lineage might be greater than the variation in different lineages during development in the same species of birds, indicating negligible taxonomic value of such features. Available lineage information is excellent for parasite diagnostics, but is limited in predictions about relationships in certain host-parasite associations. A combination of experiments, field observations, microscopic and molecular diagnostics is essential for understanding the role of different P. relictum lineages in bird health.

Malaria Journal↗