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Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin↗

Estimated use of water in the Delaware River Basin in Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, 2010

The Delaware River Basin (DRB) was selected as a Focus Area Study in 2011 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as part of the USGS National Water Census. The National Water Census is a USGS research program that focuses on national water availability and use and then develops new water accounting tools and assesses water availability at both the regional and national scales. One of the water management needs that the DRB study addressed, and that was identified by stakeholder groups from the DRB, was to improve the integration of state water use and water-supply data and to provide the compiled water use information to basin users. This water use information was also used in the hydrologic modeling and ecological components of the study. Instream and offstream water use was calculated for 2010 for the DRB based on information received from Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Water withdrawal, interbasin transfers, return flow, and hydroelectric power generation release data were compiled for 11 categories by hydrologic subregion, basin, subbasin, and subwatershed. Data availability varied by state. Site-specific data were used whenever possible to calculate public supply, irrigation (golf courses, nurseries, sod farms, and crops), aquaculture, self-supplied industrial, commercial, mining, thermoelectric, and hydroelectric power withdrawals. Where site-specific data were not available, primarily for crop irrigation, livestock, and domestic use, various techniques were used to estimate water withdrawals. Total water withdrawals in the Delaware River Basin were calculated to be about 7,130 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 2010. Calculations of withdrawals by source indicate that freshwater withdrawals were about 4,130 Mgal/d (58 percent of the total) and the remaining 3,000 Mgal/d (42 percent) were from saline water. Total surface-water withdrawals were calculated to be 6,590 Mgal/d, or 92 percent of the total; about 54 percent (3,590 Mgal/d) of surface water withdrawn was freshwater. Total groundwater withdrawals were calculated to be 545 Mgal/d (8 percent of the total), all of which was freshwater. During 2010, calculated withdrawals by category, in decreasing order, were: thermoelectric power, 4,910 Mgal/d; public supply, 1,490 Mgal/d; self-supplied industrial, 350 Mgal/d; irrigation, 175 Mgal/d; self-supplied domestic, 117 Mgal/d; mining, 41.3 Mgal/d; aquaculture, 19.3 Mgal/d; livestock, 6.72 Mgal/d, and commercial, 5.89 Mgal/d. The amount of instream use for hydroelectric power generation purposes in 2010 was reported to be 273 Mgal/d for the Wallenpaupack Plant and 127 Mgal/d for the Mongaup River system. Total return flows in the DRB were 2,960 Mgal/d in 2010. Although municipal wastewater-treatment plants accounted for 539 (97 percent) of the return-flow sites, they accounted for about 70 percent of the total return flows in the DRB. There was limited information on return flows from thermoelectric power.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

Exploring management and environment effects on edge-of-field phosphorus losses with linear mixed models

Evaluating how weather, farm management, and soil conditions impact phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural sites is essential for improving our waterways in agricultural watersheds. In this study, rainfall characteristics, manure application timing, tillage, surface condition, and soil test phosphorus (STP) were analyzed to determine their effects on total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved phosphorus (DP) loss using 125 site-years of runoff data collected by the University of Wisconsin Discovery Farms and Discovery Farms Minnesota. Three linear mixed models (LMMs) were then used to evaluate the influence of those factors on TP and DP losses: (1) a model that included all runoff events, (2) manured sites only, and (3) precipitation events only. Results show that the timing of manure application relative to the timing of a runoff event only had a marginal association with P loads and concentrations, although the majority of the runoff events were collected after 10 days of manure application. Tillage was as influential factor, with greater DP loads and concentrations associated with no-till, especially during frozen conditions. Fields in this study had high STP values, but the model results only showed positive associations between DP load and DP flow-weighted mean concentration (FWMC) loss at the 0- to 15-cm depth. The precipitation event LMM (which included precipitation characteristics) was the model that resulted in the largest R 2 value. While the predictive capacity of the LMMs was low, they did illuminate the relative importance of management and environmental variables on P loss, and can be used to guide future research on P loss in this region.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Method for Estimating Annual Atrazine Use for Counties in the Conterminous United States, 1992-2007

A method was developed to estimate annual atrazine use during 1992 to 2007 on sixteen crops and four agricultural land uses. For each year, atrazine use was estimated for all counties in the conterminous United States (except California) by combining (1) proprietary data from the Doane Marketing Research-Kynetec (DMRK) AgroTrak database on the mass of atrazine applied to agricultural crops, (2) county harvested crop acreage, by county, from the 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007 Censuses of Agriculture, and (3) annual harvested crop acreage from National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) for non-Census years. DMRK estimates of pesticide use on individual crops were derived from surveys of major field crops and selected specialty crops in multicounty areas referred to as Crop Reporting Districts (CRD). The CRD-level atrazine-use estimates were disaggregated to obtain county-level application rates by dividing the mass (pounds) of pesticides applied to a crop by the acreage of that crop in the CRD to yield a rate per harvested acre. When atrazine-use estimates were not available for a CRD, crop, or year, an estimated rate was developed following a hierarchy of decision rules that checked first for the availability of a crop application rate from surveyed atrazine application rate(s) for adjacent CRDs for a specific year, and second, the rates from surveyed CRDs within for U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Production Regions for a specific year or multiple years. The estimation method applied linear interpolation to estimate crop acreage for years when harvested acres for a crop and county were not reported in either the Census of Agriculture or the NASS database, but were reported by these data sources for other years for that crop and county. Data for atrazine use for the counties in California was obtained from farmers' reports of pesticide use collected and published by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation-Pesticide Use Reporting (DPR-PUR) because these data are more complete than DMRK survey data. National and state annual atrazine-use totals derived by this method were compared with other published pesticide-use estimates and were highly correlated. The method developed is designed to be applicable to other pesticides for which there are similar data; however, for some pesticides that are applied to specialty crops, fewer surveys are usually available to estimate application rates and there are a greater number of years with unreported crop acreage, potentially resulting in greater uncertainty in use

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Aphanomyces invadans in Atlantic Menhaden along the East Coast of the United States

The cause of deeply penetrating ulcers of Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus has been the subject of significant research efforts in recent years. These lesions and the associated syndrome termed ulcerative mycosis have been observed along the East Coast of the United States since at least the early 1980s. Although Aphanomyces spp. were isolated from these lesions in the mid to late 1980s, similar lesions could not be reproduced by experimental infections of Atlantic menhaden with these isolates. The identical characteristic histologic appearance of granulomatous inflammation surrounding the penetrating fungal hyphae occurs in fish with epizootic ulcerative syndrome (EUS), as reported throughout South Asia, Japan, and Australia. Aphanomyces invadans has been found to be the causative agent of EUS in all of these countries. Using methods developed for the study of EUS, we successfully isolated an organism for which the DNA sequence, morphology, temperature and salinity growth characteristics, and infectivity of chevron snakehead Channa striata are identical to A. invadans . Using the polymerase chain reaction assay for A. invadans , we were able to demonstrate the presence of the organism from Atlantic menhaden lesions collected in U.S. estuarine waters from Delaware to South Carolina. In addition, the organism was present in lesions on a bluegill Lepomis macrochirus from a farm pond in Georgia and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus from a farm pond in Louisiana.

Maryland↗

Exposure and effects of bioaccumulative contaminants of emerging concern in tree swallows nesting across the Laurentian Great Lakes

Contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) are a loosely defined group of chemicals whose wide-spread usage or presence in the environment has occurred more recently or for which there has been relatively little research done until recently. Many of these CECs are not currently regulated. The National Toxicology Program within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services estimates that about 2000 CECs are introduced each year (https://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/about/). An unknown number may pose a risk to human or animal health. The Phase 1 (2010 – 2014) CEC work in birds, which is the subject of this report, assessed exposure across the Great Lakes to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), perfluorinated compounds (PFASs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and put those exposures into context with data from biologically relevant endpoints such as reproductive success, as well as, physiological response indicators (bioindicators) to assess possible effects. The group of chemicals included in Phase 1 were mainly those chemicals that bioaccumulate in tissues. Phase 2 (2015 – 2019) CEC work with tree swallows was expanded to include CECs whose occurrence in the environment is more temporary or seasonal, and that do not necessarily bioaccumulate. These are often called pseudo-persistent, because, while they are not long-lived in the environment, there are often daily inputs via waste water treatment plants, and run-off from farm fields and storm drainages, thereby making them available to biota year-round. These include pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and newer pesticides including herbicides. Tree swallow work on these less persistent CECs will be reported in the future, however see other Appendices in this report for information on some of these types of CECs (Appendices A, B, D).

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

Geospatial data for developing nutrient SPARROW models for the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States

Through the International Watersheds Initiative of the International Joint Commission (IJC), the SpatiallyReferenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is being applied to the Great Lakes, Rainy River – Lake of the Woods and Red-Assiniboine basins. The objective of this binational application of the SPARROW model is to better understand and quantify the sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) that contribute to regional water-quality issues like algal blooms and eutrophication in Lake Erie and other parts of the Great Lakes, as well as Lake of the Woods. Led by the IJC, a team of researchers from the National Research Council of Canada – Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering Research Centre, USGS, and IJC are extending the SPARROW modelling work previously completed for the Red-Assiniboine basin and the U.S. portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy river basins to cover all of the Great Lakes, Rainy River – Lake of the Woods and RedAssiniboine basins. The current effort is termed the Midcontinent SPARROW modelling study. This report describes the data used to develop the Midcontinent SPARROW models, specifically the sources of original data, assembling the data, and the processing and harmonization required between the U.S. and Canada data needed to produce these models. Details provided include the: development of a digital stream network and related catchments – most significantly in the Canadian regions of the Great Lakes and Rainy River – Lake of the Woods basins where these data were not available to create a seamless binational network across the model domain; calculation of variables to aid in the determination of in-stream and in-reservoir decay of P and N; quantification of Canadian diversions within the Midcontinental region (i.e., Lake St. Joseph, Long Lake and the Ogoki Reservoir); development of binational input nutrient sources considered for model development (i.e., land cover, inorganic farm fertilizer, manure, atmospheric deposition, point-source pollution from wastewatertreatment plants and contribution from non-modelled watersheds); and development of delivery variables considered to be most predominant (i.e., temperature, precipitation and ensuing runoff, soil permeability and clay content, slope of the catchments, and tile drainage). The majority of the geospatial data collection and processing was required for Canadian datasets because many of the U.S. datasets were already assembled for previous SPARROW model applications in the U.S. The task of harmonizing data between the U.S. and Canada was important to ensure consistency of the datasets used in the models. The harmonized digital stream network, delineated catchments and input data for each catchment (i.e., source and delivery variables), created for the Midcontinent SPARROW models, are available for download at url: https://doi.org/10.4224/300.0001.

Technical Report↗

Movements of water, solutes, and stable isotopes in the unsaturated zones of two sand plains in the upper Midwest

Four month-long field experiments investigated movements of water and solutes through unsaturated sand plains near Princeton, Minnesota, and Oakes, North Dakota. Atrazine and bromide were applied to bare soils and soils planted with corn. The field plots were irrigated according to local farming practices. At the end of each experiment, unsaturated soils were analyzed for atrazine and bromide concentrations and oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions of soil water. Most soil water was affected by evaporation but groundwater beneath the plots had no evaporative isotopic signature. Therefore most recharge consisted of water that was unaffected by evaporation. Sources of such water may have included snowmelt, prolonged or high-intensity rainfalls that were not interrupted by periods of drying, and water that moved through preferential flow paths. Preferential flow also was suggested by the detection of atrazine, deethylatrazine, and bromide in groundwater shortly after each application of irrigation water at Princeton and by isolated concentrations of atrazine and bromide in soil well below the main masses of chemicals at Oakes.

Minnesota, North Dakota↗

Nutrients in the nexus

Synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer has enabled modern agriculture to greatly improve human nutrition during the twentieth century, but it has also created unintended human health and environmental pollution challenges for the twenty-first century. Averaged globally, about half of the fertilizer-N applied to farms is removed with the crops, while the other half remains in the soil or is lost from farmers’ fields, resulting in water and air pollution. As human population continues to grow and food security improves in the developing world, the dual development goals of producing more nutritious food with low pollution will require both technological and socio-economic innovations in agriculture. Two case studies presented here, one in sub-Saharan Africa and the other in Midwestern United States, demonstrate how management of nutrients, water, and energy is inextricably linked in both small-scale and large-scale food production, and that science-based solutions to improve the efficiency of nutrient use can optimize food production while minimizing pollution. To achieve the needed large increases in nutrient use efficiency, however, technological developments must be accompanied by policies that recognize the complex economic and social factors affecting farmer decision-making and national policy priorities. Farmers need access to affordable nutrient supplies and support information, and the costs of improving efficiencies and avoiding pollution may need to be shared by society through innovative policies. Success will require interdisciplinary partnerships across public and private sectors, including farmers, private sector crop advisors, commodity supply chains, government agencies, university research and extension, and consumers.

Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences↗

Preliminary investigations of the winter ecology of Long-billed Curlews in coastal Texas

Since the early 1900s, the distribution of the Long-billed Curlew ( Numenius americanus ) has contracted dramatically in the eastern one-half of its historic range. The species has been designated as a "Bird of Conservation Concern" and focal species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, a species of concern by several states, and a "Highly Imperiled" species in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The uncertain outlook for this species has contributed to a plethora of research on Long-billed Curlews, most of which have focused on breeding and nesting ecology of the species. Gaps remain in information about factors affecting population dynamics on the winter grounds and the linkages between Long-billed Curlew populations on the breeding range, migration routes, and winter range. To begin filling those gaps, a pilot study was done to evaluate (1) curlew use of nocturnal roost sites, (2) use of public outreach to locate curlews and contribute to preliminary assessment of foraging habitat use, (3) six different methods to capture curlews, and (4) movements by curlews on wintering areas. The study area includes the lower Texas coast, which harbors the eastern-most dense populations of Long-billed Curlews in North America. Use of historical winter roost sites was not observed; however, there was documented limited use (up to 150 curlews) of several new roost sites, some of which were used on an intermittent or erratic basis. Reports elicited from the public indicated Long-billed Curlews wintering in coastal Texas often forage in open, grass-covered lots of partially developed residential areas, golf courses, and public parks within urban and suburban zones. Curlews were reported to use these sites in developed areas as far as 100 kilometers inland. Other reports indicated Long-billed Curlews foraging in farm fields, shallow coastal marsh, and on the beaches of Gulf of Mexico barrier islands. The effectiveness of six techniques for capture of Long-billed Curlews was evaluated in the study. Seven curlews were captured and banded with four of six methods attempted. At least one curlew each was captured with (1) noose ropes, (2) baited bow net, (3) Coda Netgun, and (4) whoosh net; no curlews were caught with a cast net or Super Talon netgun. The Coda Netgun proved to be the most effective methodology examined. Captured birds (7) were weighed, measured, and banded. Body masses (mean = 518 grams) were low compared to data previously published on body mass of Long-billed Curlews. There were 22 observations recorded of banded curlews. Resightings confirmed that birds were not harmed during capture. All of the 22 resightings occurred within two kilometers of the banding locations, suggesting that birds remained near their chosen foraging areas. Results from this 1-year pilot study yielded an intriguing combination of findings that warrant further investigation. Observations include reduced numbers of roosting birds along the Texas coast during dry conditions, highly dynamic use of nocturnal roost sites, use of widely divergent habitat types for foraging, low body mass of most captured birds, and apparent fidelity to general feeding areas. Future investigations of this eastern winter population of curlews would benefit from larger sample sizes and monitoring of individual birds.

Texas↗

Three-dimensional finite-difference model of ground-water system underlying the Muskegon County wastewater disposal system, Michigan

The spray irrigation system used by Muskegon County for wastewater treatment is the largest of its kind in the United States. It has 2200 hectares of irrigated farm land, 688 hectares of treatment lagoons, and 105 kilometers of drainage tile. The system has a design capacity of 1.8 cubic meters of wastewater per second. A three-dimensional finite-difference model was developed to study the effect of the disposal operation on ground-water conditions. Model calculations show that the water table at and adjacent to most of the wastewater site is lower as a result of the operation of the system to date. However, along the northwest boundary of the site, where irrigated land was not undertiled, the water table is 1 to 2 meters higher than it would be under natural conditions. Predictive simulations indicate that, even if the drainage tiles lost 75 percent of their effectiveness, the impact of disposal operations on ground-water levels would be negligible outside of the wastewater site.

Michigan↗

In vivo virus growth competition assays demonstrate equal fitness of fish rhabdovirus strains that co-circulate in aquaculture

A novel virus growth competition assay for determining relative fitness of RNA virus variants in vivo has been developed using the fish rhabdovirus, Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV), in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). We have conducted assays with IHNV isolates designated B, C, and D, representing the three most common genetic subtypes that co-circulate in Idaho trout farm aquaculture. In each assay, groups of 30 fish were immersed in a 1:1 mixture of two genotypes of IHNV, and then held in individual beakers for a 72 h period of in vivo competitive virus replication. Progeny virus populations in each fish were analyzed for the presence and proportion of each viral genotype. In two independent assays of the B:C isolate pair, and two assays of the B:D pair, all fish were co-infected and there was a high level of fish-to-fish variation in the ratio of the two competing genotypes. However, in each assay the average ratio in the 30-fish group was not significantly different from the input ratio of 1:1, indicating equal or nearly equal viral fitness on a host population basis, under the conditions tested. ?? 2008.

Virus Research↗

Overview of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

The Nation's water resources are the basis for life and our economic vitality. These resources support a complex web of human activities and fishery and wildlife needs that depend upon clean water. Demands for good-quality water for drinking, recreation, farming, and industry are rising, and as a result, the American public is concerned about the condition and sustainability of our water resources. The American public is asking: Is it safe to swim in and drink water from our rivers or lakes? Can we eat the fish that come from them? Is our ground water polluted? Is water quality degrading with time, and if so, why? Has all the money we've spent to clean up our waters, done any good? The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program was designed to provide information that will help answer these questions. NAWQA is designed to assess historical, current, and future water-quality conditions in representative river basins and aquifers nationwide. One of the primary objectives of the program is to describe relations between natural factors, human activities, and water-quality conditions and to define those factors that most affect water quality in different parts of the Nation. The linkage of water quality to environmental processes is of fundamental importance to water-resource managers, planners, and policy makers. It provides a strong and unbiased basis for better decisionmaking by those responsible for making decisions that affect our water resources, including the United States Congress, Federal, State, and local agencies, environmental groups, and industry. Information from the NAWQA Program also will be useful for guiding research, monitoring, and regulatory activities in cost effective ways.

Open-File Report↗

Influence of demand and capacity in transportation simulations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations

Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay Farm Island (City of Alameda, California, USA) and the distant-tsunami threat posed by Aleutian-Alaskan earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of agent-based, transportation simulation to support short-notice, tsunami-evacuation planning. Results demonstrate how vehicle simulation can characterize network performance during a tsunami evacuation in the absence of real-world measurements of vehicle demand and flow. Changes in vehicle demand had the greatest influence on reductions in clearance times and recommended reductions varied based on time of day. Doubling the capacity of certain road segments based on traditional vehicle-capacity ratios and level-of-service thresholds reduced overall clearance time in some cases but increased it in other cases. The proposed simulation approach can serve as an analytical foundation for future efforts to characterize distant-tsunami evacuations in other coastal communities throughout the world.

California↗

Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non‐point source nutrient pollution. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non‐point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana ) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020–2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change ( n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation ( n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment‐hydrology, and agricultural‐practice‐simulation models. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade‐offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy‐makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land‐management change.

Michigan, Ohio, Indiana↗

Prevalence of neonicotinoid insecticides in paired private-well tap water and human urine samples in a region of intense agriculture overlying vulnerable aquifers in eastern Iowa

A pilot study among farming households in eastern Iowa was conducted to assess human exposure to neonicotinoids (NEOs). The study was in a region with intense crop and livestock production and where groundwater is vulnerable to surface-applied contaminants. In addition to paired outdoor (hydrant) water and indoor (tap) water samples from private wells, urine samples were collected from 47 adult male pesticide applicators along with the completions of dietary and occupational surveys. Estimated Daily Intake (EDI) were then calculated to examine exposures for different aged family members. NEOs were detected in 53% of outdoor and 55% of indoor samples, with two or more NEOs in 13% of samples. Clothianidin was the most frequently detected NEO in water samples. Human exposure was ubiquitous in urine samples. A median of 10 different NEOs and/or metabolites were detected in urine, with clothianidin, nitenpyram, thiamethoxam, 6-chloronicotinic acid, and thiacloprid amide detected in every urine samples analyzed. Dinotefuran, imidaclothiz, acetamiprid- N -desmethyl, and N -desmethyl thiamethoxam were found in ≥70% of urine samples. Observed water intake for study participants and EDIs were below the chronic reference doses (CRfD) and acceptable daily intake (ADI) standards for all NEOs indicating minimal risk from ingestion of tap water. The study results indicate that while the consumption of private well tap water provides a human exposure pathway, the companion urine results provide evidence that diet and/or other exposure pathways (e.g., occupational, house dust) may contribute to exposure more than water contamination. Further biomonitoring research is needed to better understand the scale of human exposure from different sources.

Iowa↗

Small ponds in headwater catchments are a dominant influence on regional nutrient and sediment budgets

Small ponds—farm ponds, detention ponds, or impoundments below 0.01 km 2 —serve important human needs throughout most large river basins. Yet the role of small ponds in regional nutrient and sediment budgets is essentially unknown, currently making it impossible to evaluate their management potential to achieve water quality objectives. Here we used new hydrography data sets and found that small ponds, depending on their spatial position within both their local catchments and the larger river network, can dominate the retention of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment compared to rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Over 300,000 small ponds are collectively responsible for 34%, 69%, and 12% of the mean annual retention of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in the Northeastern United States, respectively, with a dominant influence in headwater catchments (54%, 85%, and 50%, respectively). Small ponds play a critical role among the many aquatic features in long‐term nutrient and sediment loading to downstream waters.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Wagon loads of sand blows in White County, Illinois

Several anecdotal accounts provide compelling evidence that liquefaction occurred at several sites in Illinois during the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence, as much as 250 km north of the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). At one Wabash Valley location, sand blows are still evident near Big Prairie, Illinois, a location described in a particularly detailed and precise historic account. This account includes descriptions of substantial liquefaction (sand blows) as well as a two-mile-long east-west-trending “crack” along which two feet of south-side-down displacement occurred. An offset can no longer be seen at this location, which has been extensively farmed and plowed for decades. Field reconnaissance verifies many of the details provided in the account, however. We conducted a seismic-reflection experiment at this location and observed a modest offset in the Paleozoic strata at this location. The offset is opposite to that described in the historic account, consistent with the hypothesis that large midcontinent earthquakes occur on faults reactivated in a Holocene stress regime different from the one in which they were formed. Only two explanations can account for these observations: Either large NMSZ events triggered substantial liquefaction at distances greater than hitherto realized, or at least one large “New Madrid” event occurred significantly north of the NMSZ. We explore these possibilities and conclude that, while neither one can be ruled out, several disparate lines of evidence suggest that the 23 January 1812 “New Madrid mainshock” occurred in White County, Illinois, near the location of the m b 5.5 1968 southern Illinois earthquake and recent microearthquake activity.

Illinois↗