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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Predicting effects of large-scale reforestation on native and exotic birds

Aim Ecological restoration is critical for recovering biodiversity and ecosystem services, yet designing interventions to achieve particular outcomes remains fraught with challenges. In the extensive regions where non-native species are firmly established, it is unlikely that historical conditions can be fully reinstated. To what degree, and how rapidly, can human-dominated areas be shifted via restoration into regimes that benefit target species, communities or processes? Location We explore this question in a >20-year-old reforestation effort underway at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge in montane Hawaii. This large-scale planting of Acacia koa trees is designed to secure populations of globally threatened bird species by transitioning the site rapidly from pasture to native forest. Methods We surveyed all forest birds in multiple corridors of young planted trees, remnant corridors of mature trees along gulches and at sites within mature forest. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we identified which factors (distance from forest, habitat type and surrounding tree cover) had the most important influence on native and exotic bird abundance in the reforestation area. Results We found that 90% of native and exotic bird species responded quickly, occupying corridors of native trees approximately a decade after planting. However, native and exotic forest birds responded to markedly different characteristics of the reforested area. Native bird abundance was strongly predicted by proximity to mature forest and remnant corridors; conversely, exotic bird abundance was best predicted by overall tree cover throughout the area reforested. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that large-scale tree planting in corridors adjacent to mature forest can catalyse rapid recovery (both increased abundance and expanded distribution) of forest birds and that it is possible to design reforestation to benefit native species in novel ecosystems.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

A new composite abundance metric detects stream fish declines and community homogenization during six decades of invasions

Aim We developed a new technique, utilizing species-specific counts of individuals from historical fish community samples, to examine landscape-level, spatio-temporal trends in relative abundance distributions. Abundance-based historical distribution analyses are often plagued by data comparability issues, but provide critical information about community composition trends inaccessible to those using analyses based only on species presence–absence. We established trends in native and non-native fish abundance and community homogenization, uniqueness and diversity to help local conservation managers prioritize targets and motivate similar studies globally to support fish conservation. Location Upper and middle New River (UMNR) basin, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We compiled catch data from 61 years of fish community surveys (1958–2019) and tested for community homogenization by comparing data from repeatedly sampled sites (1900s versus 2000s samples) using dispersion analyses. We measured community uniqueness (site contributions to beta diversity) and species diversity (Shannon index) at sampled streams to identify potential conservation hotspots. We then used regression analyses and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests to examine species-specific basin-wide and local abundance trends and identify species of potential conservation concern. Results Dispersion of sites in species abundance space was significantly greater in the 1900s compared with the 2000s, indicating homogenization had occurred. Of 36 native species analysed, 44.4% (16) showed basin-wide declines. Non-native species exhibited mixed patterns; site-level abundance increased in 2 of 15 species analysed (13%). Main conclusions Our results indicate basin-wide community homogenization has occurred within the UMNR, but many unique and diverse communities persist. If conserved, these could help maintain regional fish diversity. We found basin-wide declines in four endemic species, as well as spread patterns of non-native and native species that were not detected by a presence–absence analysis applied within the same study area. This finding illustrates the importance of considering both species’ abundance and occurrence patterns as separate dimensions of biodiversity to inform conservation planning.

North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2022

Forecasting species distributions: Correlation does not equal causation

Aim Identifying the mechanisms influencing species' distributions is critical for accurate climate change forecasts. However, current approaches are limited by correlative models that cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects. Location New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. Methods Using causal and correlational models and new theory on range limits, we compared current (2014–2019) and future (2080s) distributions of ecologically important mammalian carnivores and competitors along range limits in the northeastern US under two global climate models (GCMs) and a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) of projected snow and forest biomass change. Results Our hypothesis that causal models of climate-mediated competition would result in different distribution predictions than correlational models, both in the current and future periods, was well-supported by our results; however, these patterns were prominent only for species pairs that exhibited strong interactions. The causal model predicted the current distribution of Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ) more accurately, likely because it incorporated the influence of competitive interactions mediated by snow with the closely related bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). Both modeling frameworks predicted an overall decline in lynx occurrence in the central high-elevation regions and increased occurrence in the northeastern region in the 2080s due to changes in land use that provided optimal habitat. However, these losses and gains were less substantial in the causal model due to the inclusion of an indirect buffering effect of snow on lynx. Main conclusions Our comparative analysis indicates that a causal framework, steeped in ecological theory, can be used to generate spatially explicit predictions of species distributions. This approach can be used to disentangle correlated predictors that have previously hampered understanding of range limits and species' response to climate change.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗
USGS2026

Ecology of reintroduced Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep in Dinosaur National Monument

Translocations have been widely used to restore and conserve bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) populations in North America. Some translocations have been successful, but many populations remain small and genetically isolated. Population structure can influence the viability and long-term success of reintroductions. Social ungulates often function as interconnected subpopulations (metapopulations); however, few studies evaluate subpopulation sizes, connectivity, and genetic diversity within metapopulations. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive study of a reintroduced Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis canadensis ) population in Dinosaur National Monument in Colorado and Utah, USA, between 2006–2020. We analyzed global positioning system (GPS) radio-collar data, genetic samples, and results of health testing to evaluate abundance, distribution, genetic structure and diversity, habitat use, movement and connectivity, and presence of or exposure to respiratory pathogens. We integrated these analyses to evaluate the outcomes of a reintroduction effort that began in 1952, over 70 years ago, and to inform management decisions in Dinosaur National Monument. We also provide a framework for evaluating metapopulation processes, including a non-invasive approach that links genetic structure with Bayesian spatial capture-recapture analyses to estimate subpopulation sizes. Despite models indicating continuous suitable habitat, we found a spatially structured population with at least 4 subpopulations with constrained connectivity. Evidence from step selection and density analyses suggested that movement among subpopulations may be limited by semi-permeable barriers including rivers and human disturbance, which could contribute to maintenance of spatial structure over time. In 2006, antibody to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae was detected in all geographically and genetically distinct subpopulations. Widespread clinical signs of disease and a confirmed exposure to M. ovipneumoniae in 2019 indicate a long-term disease challenge. Proximity to domestic sheep creates repeated opportunities for introduction of new M. ovipneumoniae strains. We estimated abundance in 2019 at 109 (95% CrI = 87–133), composed of subpopulations ranging from 18–39 animals (95% CrIs from 11–50). Genetic diversity was relatively high compared to other reintroduced and native Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep populations, which is likely a consequence of multiple translocations from different sources. Three of 4 subpopulation centers generally aligned with the locations of original translocation release sites. Persistence in the presence of pathogens may be facilitated by metapopulation structure and moderately high genetic diversity. Conversely, metapopulation structure can also facilitate pathogen persistence. Our approach offers a path to advance understanding of the population ecology of reintroduced bighorn sheep and can inform effective conservation and management of their populations.

Colorado, Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Comparing species distribution models constructed with different subsets of environmental predictors

Aim To assess the usefulness of combining climate predictors with additional types of environmental predictors in species distribution models for range-restricted species, using common correlative species distribution modelling approaches. Location Florida, USA Methods We used five different algorithms to create distribution models for 14 vertebrate species, using seven different predictor sets: two with bioclimate predictors only, and five ‘combination’ models using bioclimate predictors plus ‘additional’ predictors from groups representing: human influence, land cover, extreme weather or noise (spatially random data).We use a linear mixed-model approach to analyse the effects of predictor set and algorithm on model accuracy, variable importance scores and spatial predictions. Results Regardless of modelling algorithm, no one predictor set produced significantly more accurate models than all others, though models including human influence predictors were the only ones with significantly higher accuracy than climate-only models. Climate predictors had consistently higher variable importance scores than additional predictors in combination models, though there was variation related to predictor type and algorithm. While spatial predictions varied moderately between predictor sets, discrepancies were significantly greater between modelling algorithms than between predictor sets. Furthermore, there were no differences in the level of agreement between binary ‘presence–absence’ maps and independent species range maps related to the predictor set used. Main conclusions Our results indicate that additional predictors have relatively minor effects on the accuracy of climate-based species distribution models and minor to moderate effects on spatial predictions. We suggest that implementing species distribution models with only climate predictors may provide an effective and efficient approach for initial assessments of environmental suitability.

Florida↗
USGS2006

Multi-scale responses of soil stability and invasive plants to removal of non-native grazers from an arid conservation reserve

Disturbances and ecosystem recovery from disturbance both involve numerous processes that operate on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Few studies have investigated how gradients of disturbance intensity and ecosystem responses are distributed across multiple spatial resolutions and also how this relationship changes through time during recovery. We investigated how cover of non-native species and soil-aggregate stability (a measure of vulnerability to erosion by water) in surface and subsurface soils varied spatially during grazing by burros and cattle and whether patterns in these variables changed after grazer removal from Mojave National Preserve, California, USA. We compared distance from water and number of ungulate defecations — metrics of longer-term and recent grazing intensity, respectively, — as predictors of our response variables. We used information-theoretic analyses to compare hierarchical linear models that accounted for important covariates and allowed for interannual variation in the disturbance–response relationship at local and landscape scales. Soil stability was greater under perennial vegetation than in bare interspaces, and surface soil stability decreased with increasing numbers of ungulate defecations. Stability of surface samples was more affected by time since removal of grazers than was stability of subsurface samples, and subsurface soil stability in bare spaces was not related to grazing intensity, time since removal, or any of our other predictors. In the high rainfall year (2003) after cattle had been removed for 1–2 years, cover of all non-native plants averaged nine times higher than in the low-rainfall year (2002). Given the heterogeneity in distribution of large-herbivore impacts that we observed at several resolutions, hierarchical analyses provided a more complete understanding of the spatial and temporal complexities of disturbance and recovery processes in arid ecosystems.

California↗
USGS2025

Amphibian diversity of the western Colorado canyonlands including potential threats from nonnative bullfrogs and disease

Throughout the canyons of the Colorado and Uncompahgre Plateaus, water is a limited resource for wildlife, with patchy distribution and seasonal availability. Tributary creeks within these canyons drain into mainstem rivers, providing habitat and breeding sites for native amphibians. Yet, little is known about the diversity and distribution of amphibians that live in these harsh, dynamic environments. In addition, the rivers that border these canyon tributaries may serve as corridors for nonnative species and disease. The American Bullfrog ( Lithobates catesbeianus ) is a nonnative species in western Colorado known to prey on native amphibians and act as a reservoir for pathogens such as Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ). From 2019 to 2022, we surveyed for amphibians using visual encounter surveys (VES) and environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys throughout the McInnis Canyons National Conservation Area (MCNCA), the Dominguez–Escalante National Conservation Area (DENCA), and the Dolores River Canyon Wilderness Study Area (DRCWSA). Our primary goals were to document the diversity and distribution of native amphibians in the canyonlands and evaluate potential threats to these species from bullfrogs and Bd . We confirmed that sensitive species, such as the Great Basin Spadefoot ( Spea intermontana ) and the Northern Leopard Frog ( Lithobates pipiens ), inhabit these protected areas. In most cases, bullfrogs were not detected within ephemeral tributaries, but bullfrog DNA was detected in some tributaries at the confluence with the mainstem rivers. In Mee Canyon (MCNCA), however, bullfrogs were found within the tributary, up to 3 km from the Colorado River. A bullfrog individual removed from this canyon tested positive for Bd , and diet contents suggested that native amphibians are potential prey in this system. Nonnative predators and disease pose a threat to native amphibians, alongside environmental changes such as drought and hydrological shifts driven by ongoing climate change.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Frequency of extreme freeze events controls the distribution and structure of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) near their northern range limit in coastal Louisiana

Aim Climate change is expected to result in the tropicalization of coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as warming winters allow tropical mangrove forests to expand their distribution poleward at the expense of temperate salt marshes. Data limitations near mangrove range limits have hindered understanding of the effects of winter temperature extremes on mangrove distribution and structure. Here, we investigated the influence of extreme freeze events on the abundance, height and coverage of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) near their northern range limit in Louisiana. Location Coastal Louisiana, USA. Methods We quantified the relationships between the frequency of extreme freeze events and A. germinans abundance, height and coverage using: (a) mangrove observation points recorded via aerial surveys from a fixed‐wing aircraft; (b) 30 years of temperature data; and (c) mangrove mortality and leaf damage temperature thresholds. We used freeze frequency data and mangrove–climate relationships to evaluate and spatially depict the risk of A. germinans freeze damage across Louisiana. Results We identified strong negative relationships between the frequency of extreme freeze events and A. germinans abundance, height and coverage. Avicennia germinans is most abundant, tall and continuous along the south‐eastern outer coast of Louisiana, where the frequency of extreme freeze events is reduced (i.e., lower risk of mangrove freeze damage) by the buffering effects of comparatively warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Conversely, the risk of A. germinans freeze damage has historically been very high across Louisiana's Chenier Plain and within more inland wetlands in the Deltaic Plain. Main conclusions Our analyses advance understanding of how the frequency of extreme freeze events controls the distribution, height and coverage of A. germinans near its northern range limit. In addition to informing climate‐smart coastal restoration efforts, our findings can be used to better anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate wetlands due to climate change.

Louisiana↗
USGS2015

Shaping species with ephemeral boundaries: The distribution and genetic structure of desert tortoise ( Gopherus morafkai ) in the Sonoran Desert region

Aim We examine the role biogeographical features played in the evolution of Morafka's desert tortoise ( Gopherus morafkai ) and test the hypothesis that G. morafkai maintains genetically distinct lineages associated with different Sonoran Desert biomes. Increased knowledge of the past and present distribution of the Sonoran Desert region's biota provides insight into the forces that drive and maintain its biodiversity. Location Sonoran Desert biogeographical region; Sonora and Sinaloa, Mexico and Arizona, USA. Methods We examined wild tortoises from Mexico ( n = 155) and Arizona ( n = 78), spanning their known distribution. We used mtDNA sequences to reconstruct matrilineal relationships and 25 microsatellite (STR) loci for Bayesian analyses of gene flow. We performed clinal analyses on both mtDNA and STR loci to determine the position and amount of introgression where lineages co-occur. We used GIS to assess the association of genetic structuring with ecological features. We used these data in a hypothesis-driven approach to assess different models of how genetic diversity is maintained and distributed in G. morafkai . Results Gopherus morafkai was found to comprise genetically and geographically distinct ‘Sonoran’ and ‘Sinaloan’ lineages. Both lineages occurred in a relatively narrow zone of overlap in Sinaloan thornscrub, where it transitions into Sonoran desertscrub. Limited introgression occurred at the contact zone. The best-fit model suggests that these lineages diverged in parapatry where the distribution of genotypes is environment-dependent and introgression is inhibited by exogenous selection. Main conclusions The historically shifting ecotone between tropical deciduous forest and Sonoran desertscrub appears to be a boundary that fostered divergence between parapatric lineages of tortoises. The sharp genetic cline between the two lineages suggests that periods of isolation in temporary refugia due to Pleistocene climatic cycling influenced divergence. Despite incomplete reproductive isolation, the Sonoran and Sinaloan lineages of G. morafkai are on separate evolutionary trajectories.

Arizona, Sonora↗
USGS2013

Regional distribution models with lack of proximate predictors: Africanized honeybees expanding north

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species–environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2026

Changes in spatial distribution and abundance together determine potential for population persistence for greater sage-grouse

Aim Population ecologists often focus on changes in the distribution and abundance of wildlife species, which are useful for trend analyses and status assessments. However, rarely are these responses evaluated simultaneously for a single species, despite their unique contributions to fully assess a species' viability. For example, focusing solely on total abundance can mask important losses in overall distribution within a metapopulation structure that may contribute to long-term population instability that results from the extirpation of small peripheral populations. Location Bi-State region of Nevada and California, USA. Methods We simultaneously evaluated changes in population abundance and distribution for greater sage-grouse (hereafter sage-grouse; Centrocercus urophasianus ) within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (DPS), a genetically distinct and isolated population straddling the border of Nevada and California. We combined population counts, demographic data, and information on space use from marked individuals to evaluate changes in population distribution and abundance over three time periods that corresponded to the three most recent population nadirs (1995–2019, 2002–2019 and 2008–2019). Results The Bi-State DPS exhibited evidence of ~1.2%–2.5% declines annually, over the short/medium-term (1995–2019; λ^ = 0.987, 95% CRI: 0.970–0.999), short-term (2002–2019; λ^ = 0.975, 95% CRI: 0.963–0.985) and recent-term (2008–2019; λ^ = 0.988, 95% CRI: 0.973–1.001). Since 1995, the spatial distribution of sage-grouse abundance in the Bi-State DPS shifted amongst subpopulations, with peripheral subpopulations suffering the largest declines. Main Conclusions Gains in abundance and distribution amongst expanding subpopulations did not offset losses in the remaining subpopulations, with a net loss in occupied distribution of 156 km 2 since 1995. Reductions in spatial distribution could have implications for metapopulation persistence as peripheral populations become more vulnerable to stochastic events, which would not have been apparent from the evaluation of overall metapopulation abundance on its own.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2008

Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the effect of sample prevalence on model estimation. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2022

Searching for refuge: A framework for identifying site factors conferring resistance to climate-driven vegetation change

Climate change is occurring at accelerated rates in high latitude regions such as Alaska, causing alterations in woody plant growth and associated ecosystem patterns and processes. Our aim is to assess the magnitude and speed that climate-induced changes in woody plant distribution and volume may be reduced and/or slowed by relatively static landscape features like physical characteristics (e.g. depth to gravel, mineral cover percent and slope degree) and/or edaphic properties (e.g. soil organic matter, soil pH and site wetness rating) that resist climate-vegetation responses

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Remaining populations of an upland stream fish persist in refugia defined by habitat features at multiple scales

Aim Conserving stream biota could require strategies that preserve habitats conveying resistance to ecological impacts of changing land use and climate. Retrospective analyses of species’ responses to anthropogenic disturbances can inform such strategies. We developed a hierarchical framework to contrast environmental conditions underlying persistence versus extirpation of an imperilled stream fish, Candy Darter ( Etheostoma osburni ), over decades of changing land use. The decline of E. osburni may broadly represent the challenge of conserving sensitive freshwater species in intensively used upland environments. Location New River drainage, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We surveyed fish and habitat in historically occupied sites to identify population refugia, and used multivariate and spatial analyses to address three questions: (a) what are the environmental correlates of refugia? (b) are the pathways by which land use impacts instream habitat constrained by catchment- and/or segment-scale features? and (c) are E. osburni distributional dynamics spatially structured and explained by fine sediment and warm stream temperatures? Results We confirmed a recently localized distribution similar to other upland species, marked by at least seven extirpations from streams throughout E. osburni 's southern range. Catchment-scale features primarily constrained land use and finer-scale habitat, leading to either extirpations or population-supporting refugia defined by features at multiple scales. Refugium habitats contained cooler temperatures and less fine sediment. Rare mismatches between persistence and habitat suitability were explained by network location , suggesting unmeasured environmental gradients and/or dispersal contributed to distributional dynamics. Main conclusions We provided insight at multiple spatial scales into how aquatic species’ distributions become fragmented and localized. Our results demonstrate that natural landscape heterogeneity imparts spatially variable resistance of sensitive species to intensive land uses. By recognizing the scale-specific features that buffer populations from extirpation, conservation strategies could be tailored to protect naturally occurring refugium habitats and focus restoration in systems where such habitats are broadly lacking.

Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2018

Life history characteristics may be as important as climate projections for defining range shifts: An example for common tree species in the intermountain western US

Aim Predictions of future suitable habitat for plant species with climate change are known to be affected by uncertainty associated with statistical approaches, climate models and occurrence records. However, life history characteristics related to dispersal and establishment processes as well as sensitivity to barriers created by land‐use may also play important roles in shaping future distributions with climate change. We compared the uncertainty in predicted distributions associated with climate projections to uncertainty associated with species interactions related to dispersal and establishment and land‐use barriers with four common animal‐dispersed tree species in pinyon–juniper woodlands in the western United States, a region experiencing increasing fragmentation due to land‐use. Location Western USA. Methods We compared the effects of life history characteristics related to species interactions (long‐distance dispersal and facilitation), land‐use fragmentation and variation in climate projections on species distributions with climate change using a simulation model. We evaluated the impacts of these factors on three characteristics of species distributions, area occupied, range size, and distance between patches, across four 30‐year intervals centred on 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080. Results We found that uncertainty associated with climate projections and the potential effects of facilitation on establishment had the greatest impact in distribution characteristics. The effects of all factors varied by species, despite their overlapping initial distributions and relatively similar dispersal traits, highlighting the impact of life history characteristics on model outcomes. Main conclusions These results suggest that assessments of species future range shifts and vulnerability to climate change should incorporate land‐use barriers and life history traits related to dispersal and establishment, particularly for species with strong facilitative interactions.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2022

Increased landscape disturbance and streamflow variability threaten fish biodiversity in the Red River catchment, USA

Aim Stream fish distributions are hypothesized to be strongly associated with landscape characteristics at multiple scales. Variation in flow regimes and intensity of landscape disturbance are associated with stream fish distributions; however, relationships are poorly understood in many high-diversity regions. Our objective was to identify occurrence relationships between fish distributions and streamflow and landscape characteristics in the south-central United States. Location Our study area was the central Red River catchment in Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas, USA. Methods We used existing fish surveys to model the occurrence of a diverse, warmwater assemblage among hydraulic response units (HRUs). We used multispecies occupancy modelling to identify variation in occurrence probability among 111 stream fishes in relation to landscape disturbance and flow regime characteristics. Results We found occurrence relationships with landscape disturbance and 11 metrics comprising all flow-regime components. The relationships varied within both major species groups and some genera. Frequency and duration were the most common metrics underlying flow regime relationships. More common stream fishes tended to be positively associated with higher levels of landscape disturbance and flow regime metrics representing variability; conversely, narrow-ranged fishes tended to be negatively associated. Occurrence relationships with flow metrics representing high-flow events were predominately negative. As expected, many species were strongly associated with ecoregion with landscape disturbance and flow relationships held constant. Main conclusions Our study informs land use and water management decisions and stream fish conservation at multiple spatial scales. Collectively, the findings suggest potential homogenization of the Red River fish assemblage with increased landscape disturbance and streamflow variability. A reduction in landscape disturbance and maintenance of natural flow patterns at coarser scales may benefit endemic and narrow-ranged fishes. Our findings also help guide finer-scale land use and water management decisions by identifying stream network areas with a high occurrence probability of less tolerant fishes.

Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2021

Habitat use as indicator of adaptive capacity to climate change

Aim Populations of cold‐adapted species at the trailing edges of geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change from the combination of exposure to warm temperatures and high sensitivity to heat. Many of these species are predicted to decline under future climate scenarios, but they could persist if they can adapt to warming climates either physiologically or behaviourally. We aim to understand local variation in contemporary habitat use and use this information to identify signs of adaptive capacity. We focus on moose ( Alces alces ), a charismatic species of conservation and public interest. Location The northeastern United States, along the trailing edge of the moose geographic range in North America. Methods We compiled data on occurrences and habitat use of moose from remote cameras and GPS collars across the northeastern United States. We use these data to build habitat suitability models at local and regional spatial scales and then to predict future habitat suitability under climate change. We also use fine‐scale GPS data to model relationships between habitat use and temperature on a daily temporal scale and to predict future habitat use. Results We find that habitat suitability for moose will decline under a range of climate change scenarios. However, moose across the region differ in their use of climatic and habitat space, indicating that they could exhibit adaptive capacity. We also find evidence for behavioural responses to weather, where moose increase their use of forested wetland habitats in warmer places and/or times. Main conclusionsOur results suggest that there will be significant shifts in moose distribution due to climate change. However, if there is spatial variation in thermal tolerance, trailing‐edge populations could adapt to climate change. We highlight that prioritizing certain habitats for conservation (i.e., thermal refuges) could be crucial for this adaptation.

New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts↗
USGS2017

Seventy years of stream‐fish collections reveal invasions and native range contractions in an Appalachian (USA) watershed

Aim Knowledge of expanding and contracting ranges is critical for monitoring invasions and assessing conservation status, yet reliable data on distributional trends are lacking for most freshwater species. We developed a quantitative technique to detect the sign (expansion or contraction) and functional form of range‐size changes for freshwater species based on collections data, while accounting for possible biases due to variable collection effort. We applied this technique to quantify stream‐fish range expansions and contractions in a highly invaded river system. Location Upper and middle New River (UMNR) basin, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We compiled a 77‐year stream‐fish collections dataset partitioned into ten time periods. To account for variable collection effort among time periods, we aggregated the collections into 100 watersheds and expressed a species’ range size as detections per watershed (HUC) sampled (DPHS). We regressed DPHS against time by species and used an information‐theoretic approach to compare linear and nonlinear functional forms fitted to the data points and to classify each species as spreader, stable or decliner. Results We analysed changes in range size for 74 UMNR fishes, including 35 native and 39 established introduced species. We classified the majority (51%) of introduced species as spreaders, compared to 31% of natives. An exponential functional form fits best for 84% of spreaders. Three natives were among the most rapid spreaders. All four decliners were New River natives. Main conclusions Our DPHS‐based approach facilitated quantitative analyses of distributional trends for stream fishes based on collections data. Partitioning the dataset into multiple time periods allowed us to distinguish long‐term trends from population fluctuations and to examine nonlinear forms of spread. Our framework sets the stage for further study of drivers of stream‐fish invasions and declines in the UMNR and is widely transferable to other freshwater taxa and geographic regions.

North Carolina, Virginia↗