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USGS2022

A Central Asia hydrologic monitoring dataset for food and water security applications in Afghanistan

From the Hindu Kush mountains to the Registan Desert, Afghanistan is a diverse landscape where droughts, floods, conflict, and economic market accessibility pose challenges for agricultural livelihoods and food security. The ability to remotely monitor environmental conditions is critical to support decision making for humanitarian assistance. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams provide information on hydrologic states for routine integrated food security analysis. While developed for a specific project, these data are publicly available and useful for other applications that require hydrologic estimates of the water and energy balance. These two data streams are unique because of their suitability for routine monitoring, as well as for being a historical record for computing relative indicators of water availability. The global stream is available at ∼ 1-month latency, and monthly average outputs are on a 10 km grid from 1982–present. The second data stream, Central Asia (21–56 ∘ N, 30–100 ∘ E), at ∼ 1 d latency, provides daily average outputs on a 1 km grid from 2000–present. This paper describes the configuration of the two FLDAS data streams, background on the software modeling framework, selected meteorological inputs and parameters, and results from previous evaluation studies. We also provide additional analysis of precipitation and snow cover over Afghanistan. We conclude with an example of how these data are used in integrated food security analysis. For use in new and innovative studies that will improve understanding of this region, these data are hosted by U.S. Geological Survey data portals and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The Central Asia data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/VQ4CD3Y9YC0R (Jacob and Slinski, 2021), and the global data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/5NHC22T9375G (McNally, 2018).

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2017

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2014

Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the two metrics of absolute mean error and root mean square error, using measured inputs of water temperature and nutrients. One of the main calibration tools for CE-QUAL-W2 model development was the vertical profile temperature data, available for all three lakes. For all three lakes, the absolute mean error and root mean square error were less than 1.0 degree Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, for the different depth ranges used for vertical profile comparisons. In Lake Carlos, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion. The reverse was true for the other two lakes, Elk Lake and Trout Lake, where the simulated results were slightly better for the hypolimnion than the epilimnion. The model also was used to approximate the location of the thermocline throughout the simulation periods, approximately April to November, in all three lake models. Deviations between the simulated and measured water temperatures in the vertical lake profile commonly were because of an offset in the timing of thermocline shifts rather than the simulated results missing thermocline shifts altogether.

Minnesota↗
USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

California↗
USGS2016

Climatic and topographical factors affecting the vegetative carbon stock of rangelands in arid and semiarid regions of China

Rangeland systems play an important role in ecological stabilization and the terrestrial carbon cycle in arid and semiarid regions. However, little is known about the vegetative carbon dynamics and climatic and topographical factors that affect vegetative carbon stock in these rangelands. Our goal was to assess vegetative carbon stock by examining meteorological data in conjunction with NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) time series datasets from 2001–2012. An improved CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was then applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamic variation of vegetative carbon stock, and analyze its response to climatic and topographical factors. We estimated the vegetative carbon stock of rangeland in Gansu province, China to be 4.4× 1014 gC, increasing linearly at an annual rate of 9.8×10 11 gC. The mean vegetative carbon density of the whole rangeland was 136.5 gC m -2 . Vegetative carbon density and total carbon varied temporally and spatially and were highly associated with temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. Vegetative carbon density reached the maximal value on elevation at 2500–3500 m, a slope of >30°and easterly aspect. The effect of precipitation, temperature and solar radiation on the vegetative carbon density of five rangeland types (desert and salinized meadow, steppe, alpine meadow, shrub and tussock, and marginal grassland in the forest) depends on the acquired quantity of water and heat for rangeland plants at all spatial scales. The results of this study provide new evidence for explaining spatiotemporal heterogeneity in vegetative carbon dynamics and responses to global change for rangeland vegetative carbon stock, and offer a theoretical and practical basis for grassland agriculture management in arid and semiarid regions.

Gansu↗
USGS2015

Potential groundwater recharge for the State of Minnesota using the Soil-Water-Balance model, 1996-2010

Groundwater recharge is one of the most difficult components of a water budget to ascertain, yet is an important boundary condition necessary for the quantification of water resources. In Minnesota, improved estimates of recharge are necessary because approximately 75 percent of drinking water and 90 percent of agricultural irrigation water in Minnesota are supplied from groundwater. The water that is withdrawn must be supplied by some combination of (1) increased recharge, (2) decreased discharge to streams, lakes, and other surface-water bodies, and (3) removal of water that was stored in the system. Recent pressure on groundwater resources has highlighted the need to provide more accurate recharge estimates for various tools that can assess the sustainability of long-term water use. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, used the Soil-Water-Balance model to calculate gridded estimates of potential groundwater recharge across Minnesota for 1996‒2010 at a 1-kilometer (0.621-mile) resolution. The potential groundwater recharge estimates calculated for Minnesota from the Soil-Water Balance model included gridded values (1-kilometer resolution) of annual mean estimates (that is, the means for individual years from 1996 through 2010) and mean annual estimates (that is, the mean for the 15-year period 1996−2010). The Soil-Water-Balance model uses a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance approach, with components of the soil-water balance calculated on a daily basis. A key advantage of this approach includes the use of commonly available geographic information system data layers that incorporate land cover, soil properties, and daily meteorological data to produce temporally and spatially variable gridded estimates of potential recharge. The Soil-Water-Balance model was calibrated by using a combination of parameter estimation techniques, making manual adjustments of model parameters, and using parameter values from previously published Soil-Water-Balance models. Each calibration simulation compared the potential recharge estimate from the model against base-flow estimates derived from three separate hydrograph separation techniques. A total of 35 Minnesota watersheds were selected for the model calibration. Meteorological data necessary for the model included daily precipitation, minimum daily temperature, and maximum daily temperature. All of the meteorological data were provided by the Daymet dataset, which included daily continuous surfaces of key climatological data. Land-cover data were provided by the 2001 and 2006 National Land Cover Database: the 2001 classification was used from 1994 through 2003, and the 2006 classification was used from 2004 through 2010. Soil data used in the model included hydrologic soils group and the available soil-water capacity. These soil data were obtained from the Natural Resources Conservation Service Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database. The statewide mean annual potential recharge rate from 1996–2010 was 4.9 inches per year. Potential recharge estimates increased from west to east across Minnesota. The mean annual potential recharge estimates across Minnesota at a 1-km resolution for the overall simulation period (1996–2010) ranged from less than 0.1 to 17.8 inches per year. Some of the lowest potential recharge rates for the simulation period were in the Red River of the North Basin of northwestern Minnesota, and generally were between 1.0 and 1.5 inches per year. The highest potential recharge rates were in northeastern Minnesota and the Anoka Sand Plain in central Minnesota. Eighty-eight percent of the potential recharge rates (by grid cell) were between 2 and 8 inches per year from 1996–2010. Only about 3 percent of all the potential recharge estimates (by grid cell) were less than 2 inches per year, and 9 percent of estimates were greater than 8 inches per year. On an annual basis, however, potential recharge rates were as high as 27.2 inches per year. The highest annual mean recharge estimate across the State was for 2010, and the lowest mean recharge estimate was for 2003. Although precipitation variability partially explained the annual differences in potential recharge estimates, precipitation alone did not account for these differences, and other factors such as antecedent moisture conditions likely were important. Also, because precipitation gradients across the State can vary from year to year, the dominant land-cover class and hydrologic soil group combinations for a particular region had a large effect on the resulting potential recharge value. During 1996–2010, April had the greatest monthly mean potential recharge compared to all other months, accounting for a mean of 30 percent of annual potential recharge in this single month.

Minnesota↗
USGS2018

Simulation of potential groundwater recharge for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, 1980–2011, using the Soil-Water-Balance Model

An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

Using the precipitation-runoff modeling system to predict seasonal water availability in the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon and California

Accurate forecasts of the streamflow expected during late spring and summer in the Upper Klamath River Basin in southern-central Oregon and northern California are used by water management agencies to balance water allocations for agriculture, aquatic habitat, and hydropower-production needs. Streamflow forecasts are also used by irrigation farmers for planning. The forecasts are typically made twice a month starting as early in the water year as December. Multiple regression equations relating real-time snowpack and precipitation conditions to seasonal streamflow volumes have been used for many years in forecasting. However, with warming temperature trends and lower snowpack, such forecasts based on historical data could become less reliable in the future. If the timing and relation of snowpack and precipitation are outside of the range of the historical data used to create the equations, the forecasts become extrapolations. Statistical forecast equations are also limited in their ability to forecast streamflow in groundwater-dominated basins having inter-annual lag. As an additional method for seasonal streamflow forecasting, a physical-process-based hydrologic model employing the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was developed in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for the Upper Klamath Basin in this study. The model was calibrated for the portion of the basin draining into Upper Klamath Lake. PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. It simulates daily streamflow, snow, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, surface-water, and groundwater processes within the basin. A model calibration and validation period for water years 2000–15 and water years 1984–99, respectively, was used. The model was calibrated and validated using measured streamflow, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation data sets. Interpolated daily precipitation and air temperature data from 32 meteorological stations within and surrounding the Upper Klamath Basin were used as model input. Performance statistics, used to evaluate how well simulated daily streamflow matched with measured streamflow included percent bias, percent relative error, and root-mean-square error. The statistics were computed annually, monthly, for October–March, and for April–September. With the exception of the October–March period, percent bias statistics were all within plus or minus 5-percent for both the calibration and validation periods. Limitations to using the model are error in the precipitation and air temperature input time series data, which include measurement error and error in the spatial interpolation method. Other errors include measured daily streamflow data, which were adjusted for consumptive use losses to make them more closely resemble natural streamflow for calibration. The model developed for the Upper Klamath Basin can be used to forecast streamflow from the Sprague and Williamson River Basins and inflow to Upper Klamath Lake. Reliable forecasts at these locations are needed for managing water for irrigation, ecosystem health, and power production. Using the models in a forecast application requires assembling model input data sets of anticipated daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature for the period after the date the forecast is made and the end of the forecasted period. These climate data sets can be based on historical or synthetic records, at the discretion of the forecaster. With the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method, a suite of streamflow scenarios is simulated using multiple years of climate data as model input. The forecasted streamflow is determined from knowing the exceedance probabilities of the simulated streamflows. In this study, the model and the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method were used to forecast the volume of inflow to Upper Klamath Lake for a 6-month period from April 1, 2015, to September 30, 2015, using a range of climate data sets based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) criteria. Because 2015 was a warm phase ENSO period, climate data for 10 warm phase ENSO years from 1980 to 2010 were used as input to the model. The simulated April–September 2015 UKL inflow volume based on measured 2015 climate data was 482,000 acre-feet, which was very close to the 50th percent exceedance probability computed from 10 simulated scenarios that used warm phase ENSO climate input data from 1980–2010.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2007

Assessment of Areal Recharge to the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer, Spokane County, Washington, and Bonner and Kootenai Counties, Idaho

A numerical flow model of the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie aquifer currently (2007) being developed requires the input of values for areally-distributed recharge, a parameter that is often the most uncertain component of water budgets and ground-water flow models because it is virtually impossible to measure over large areas. Data from six active weather stations in and near the study area were used in four recharge-calculation techniques or approaches; the Langbein method, in which recharge is estimated on the basis of empirical data from other basins; a method developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in which crop consumptive use and effective precipitation are first calculated and then subtracted from actual precipitation to yield an estimate of recharge; an approach developed as part of the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Model (ESPAM) Enhancement Project in which recharge is calculated on the basis of precipitation-recharge relations from other basins; and an approach in which reference evapotranspiration is calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, crop consumptive use is determined (using a single or dual coefficient approach), and recharge is calculated. Annual recharge calculated by the Langbein method for the six weather stations was 4 percent of annual mean precipitation, yielding the lowest values of the methods discussed in this report, however, the Langbein method can be only applied to annual time periods. Mean monthly recharge calculated by the USDA method ranged from 53 to 73 percent of mean monthly precipitation. Mean annual recharge ranged from 64 to 69 percent of mean annual precipitation. Separate mean monthly recharge calculations were made with the ESPAM method using initial input parameters to represent thin-soil, thick-soil, and lava-rock conditions. The lava-rock parameters yielded the highest recharge values and the thick-soil parameters the lowest. For thin-soil parameters, calculated monthly recharge ranged from 10 to 29 percent of mean monthly precipitation and annual recharge ranged from 16 to 23 percent of mean annual precipitation. For thick-soil parameters, calculated monthly recharge ranged from 1 to 5 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge ranged from 2 to 4 percent of mean annual precipitation. For lava-rock parameters, calculated mean monthly recharge ranged from 37 to 57 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge ranged from 45 to 52 percent of mean annual precipitation. Single-coefficient (crop coefficient) FAO Penman-Monteith mean monthly recharge values were calculated for Spokane Weather Service Office (WSO) Airport, the only station for which the necessary meteorological data were available. Grass-referenced values of mean monthly recharge ranged from 0 to 81 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge was 21 percent of mean annual precipitation; alfalfa-referenced values of mean monthly recharge ranged from 0 to 85 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge was 24 percent of mean annual precipitation. Single-coefficient FAO Penman-Monteith calculations yielded a mean monthly recharge of zero during the eight warmest and driest months of the year (March-October). In order to refine the mean monthly recharge estimates, dual-coefficient (basal crop and soil evaporation coefficients) FAO Penman-Monteith dual-crop evapotranspiration and deep-percolation calculations were applied to daily values from the Spokane WSO Airport for January 1990 through December 2005. The resultant monthly totals display a temporal variability that is absent from the mean monthly values and demonstrate that the daily amount and timing of precipitation dramatically affect calculated recharge. The dual-coefficient FAO Penman-Monteith calculations were made for the remaining five stations using wind-speed values for Spokane WSO Airport and other assumptions regarding

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1921

Surface waters of Kansas, 1895-1919

Kansas is preeminently an agricultural state. According to the United States census of 1910, the area in farms was 43,384,799 acres, or 67,789 square miles, 83 per cent of the total area of the state —82,158 square miles. The products of these farms rank high in value among those of farms in other states, as shown by comparative statistics compiled by the United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Crop Estimates. For the period from 1913 to 1917 Kansas ranked ninth of the states of the United States in the value of all crops raised, exclusive of livestock; in 1919 Kansas ranked fifth. In livestock Kansas ranked sixth in 1918 and eighth in 1919. Climatic conditions have largely dominated agricultural development in Kansas. Early ventures in dry farming in western Kansas, encouraged by a succession of rainy seasons, resulted in disheartening disasters, due to the dry seasons that followed. Throughout that region the farmers have gradually utilized the surface and underground waters for irrigation to provide against this deficiency of rainfall. The floods that have occurred in the valleys of eastern" Kansas at frequent intervals during the past twenty years have been the subject of much investigation by state and Federal organizations. In 1844 and 1903 exceptionally disastrous floods occurred in the Kansas (Kaw) valley. Floods that were of lesser magnitude, but that caused widespread loss and injury to property, have occurred in other years, the most recent being the flood of 1915. Much of the cultivated land in these valleys lies along fertile river bottoms that are annually liable to overflow, and the control of the flood waters on these rivers and their tributaries is therefore one of the problems arising from unfavorable climate that demand early solution. In view of the increasing demand for water for domestic service and fire protection, the need of determining whether the supply is adequate for rapidly growing centers of population throughout the state has recently been impressed very strongly upon a great many communities. The dependability of available sources of water supply during seasons of drought is fully as important as investigations of flood problems. Practical solutions of the many local and statewide water problems, such as flood protection, flood prevention, domestic water supply, drainage, irrigation, and water power, depend largely on a thorough knowledge of certain physical data relating to water resources. Hydrologic conditions differ widely in the different drainage basins, so that long-time investigations of stream-flow phenomena in each basin, as well as long-time investigations of meteorologic conditions over the state, are essential in the formulation of comprehensive plans to meet specific water problems. The collection of long-time records of stream-flow in Kansas which is published in this volume has been prepared for the use of those who are concerned with the different phases of the utilization of water in the state.

Kansas↗
USGS2022

Getting ahead of flash drought: From early warning to early action

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational monitoring and forecast centers, practitioners, and policy-makers to inform how they view, monitor, predict, plan for, and respond to flash drought. We discuss five related topics that together constitute the pillars of a robust flash drought early warning system, including the development of 1) a physically based identification framework, 2) comprehensive drought monitoring capabilities, and 3) improved prediction over various time scales that together 4) aid impact assessments and 5) guide decision-making and policy. We provide specific recommendations to illustrate how this fivefold approach could be used to enhance decision-making capabilities of practitioners, develop new areas of research, and provide guidance to policy-makers attempting to account for flash drought in drought preparedness and response plans.

Bulletin of American Meteorological Society (BAMS)↗
USGS2019

Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 years of drought early warning science advances and partnerships promoting global food security

On a planet with more than 7 billion people, how do we identify the millions of drought-afflicted people who face a real threat of livelihood disruption or death without humanitarian assistance? Typically, these people are poor and heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture and livestock. Most live in Africa, Central America, or Southwest Asia. When the rains fail, incomes diminish while food prices increase, cutting off the poorest (most often women and children) from access to adequate nutrition. As seen in Ethiopia in 1984 and Somalia in 2011, food shortages can lead to famine. Yet these slow onset disasters also provide opportunities for effective intervention, as seen in Ethiopia in 2015 and Somalia in 2017. Since 1985, the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has been providing evidence-based guidance for effective humanitarian relief efforts. FEWS NET depends on a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) to help understand, monitor, model and predict food insecurity. Here we provide an overview of FEWS NET's DEWS using examples from recent climate extremes. While drought monitoring and prediction provides just one part of FEWS NET's monitoring system, it draws from many disciplines - remote sensing, climate prediction, agro-climatic monitoring, and hydrologic modeling. Here we describe FEWS NET's multi-agency multi-disciplinary DEWS and Food Security Outlooks. This DEWS uses diagnostic analyses to guide predictions. Mid-season droughts are monitored using multiple cutting-edge earth observing systems. Crop and hydrologic models can translate these observations into impacts. This information feeds into FEWS NET reports, helping to save lives by motivating and targeting timely humanitarian assistance.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2024

Special topic—Eruption plumes and clouds

Introduction Explosive eruptions create plumes of volcanic ash and gas that can rise more than 30,000 feet (9.1 kilometers [km]) above sea level within minutes of eruption onset. The resulting clouds disperse under prevailing winds and may cause hazardous conditions hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the volcano, including in international airspace. Rapid detection and characterization of explosive activity is vital to mitigate the wide-ranging effects of volcanic ash. Ashfall thicknesses as small as a millimeter or so on the ground can affect infrastructure, agriculture, and air quality, requiring extensive clean-up procedures (Schuster, 1981; Warrick and others, 1981, U.S. Geological Survey, 2022). Volcanic clouds also pose substantial threats to aircraft. Since 1953, 88 encounters between airplanes and ash clouds have been documented worldwide (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2015, appendix F), resulting in aircraft damage and, in 9 cases, engine failure (Guffanti and others, 2010). In 1982, two large passenger planes suffered complete engine failure owing to eruptions in Indonesia (Global Volcanism Program, 1982) and a similar incident occurred over Alaska in 1989 (Casadevall, 1994). In all three cases, they were able to restart some engine capability and land safely once they emerged from the ash clouds, although with substantial damage (Guffanti and others, 2010). The clear threat to aviation has led to establishment of nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) around the world to monitor and rapidly disseminate information about volcanic eruptions to the aviation community. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) volcano observatories issue the Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation that informs of preeruptive unrest or eruptive activity. When ash-producing eruptions do occur, volcano observatories work closely with their regional VAAC to ensure consistency and accuracy in eruption onset time, cloud altitude, ash production, and duration as reported in Volcanic Ash Advisories. Explosive volcanism in the United States and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands prompts 50–100 such advisories in any given year (table J1). This collaborative effort is greatly aided by USGS detection and monitoring of eruption clouds to ensure a timely and coordinated response. To support these efforts to provide guidance on ash transport and fallout, the USGS developed the Ash3d volcanic ash dispersion model ( https://vsc-ash.wr.usgs.gov/ash3d-gui ) (Schwaiger and others, 2012). Automated simulations are run daily by the USGS for volcanoes that are in elevated states of unrest, and in response mode when eruptions occur. During eruptions, the model output is provided to local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices to guide them in the issuance of their information products (such as special weather statements, ashfall advisories, or ashfall warnings), as well as to State and local governments and the public. Characterization of the eruption source is needed to estimate the parameters used to initialize the Ash3d model, and by the Anchorage and Washington VAACs to initialize other dispersion models that inform forecasts for the airborne volcanic cloud. The source parameters that can be provided by observation during an eruption include eruption start time, eruption cloud height over time, and eruption duration. Other, nonobservable source parameters, such as mass eruption rate and grain-size distribution, are based on empirical correlations and study of historical deposits. The goal is to provide a time series of cloud heights, mass eruption rates, and particle-size distributions that accurately reflects current conditions. When feasible, the USGS also provides guidance on the nature of ongoing eruptions and forecasts future activity using petrologic monitoring of collected tephra samples. The aims of providing accurate observable parameters are achieved through analysis of (1) near-real-time meteorological satellite data, (2) ground-based cameras (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–G, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062g.">chapter G , this volume; Orr and others, 2024), (3) weather radar, (4) volcanic lightning detection, and (5) ground-based ash sensors and sampling. Explosive eruptions can be detected by a variety of geophysical monitoring, including infrasound (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–C, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062c.">chapter C , this volume; Lyons and others, 2024) and seismicity (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–B, 9 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062b.">chapter B , this volume; Thelen and others, 2024). However, those methods cannot quantify the altitude, ash content, and dispersal dynamics of resulting volcanic clouds. Ideally, all available sources of monitoring data are synthesized to develop a coherent understanding of eruptive activity. The guidance summarized here provides a framework for characterizing volcanic clouds in the atmosphere and tracking the evolution of explosive eruption dynamics.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1970

Hydrology of the Upper Malad River basin, southeastern Idaho

The report area comprises 485 square miles in the Basin and Range physiographic province. It includes most of eastern' Oneida County and parts of Franklin, Bannock, and Power Counties of southeastern Idaho. Relief is about 5,000 feet; the floor of the Malad Valley is at an average altitude of about 4,400 feet. Agriculture is, by far, ,the principal economic .activity. In 1960 the population of the upper Malad River basin was about 3,600, of which about 60 percent resided in Malad City, the county seat of Oneida County. The climate is semiarid throughout the Malad Valley and its principal tributary valleys; ,above 6,500 feet the climate is subhumid. Annual precipitation ranges from about 13 inches in the lower Malad Valley to more than 30 inches on the highest peaks of the Bannock and Malad ranges. Owing to ,the normally clear atmospheric conditions, large daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations are common. Topography, distance from the Pacific Ocean, .and the general atmospheric circulation are the principal factors governing the climate of the Malad River basin. The westerlies transport moisture from the P.acific Ocean toward southeastern Idaho. The north-south tren4ing mountains flanking the basin are oriented orthogonally to the moisture flux so that they are very effective in removing precipitable water from the air. A minimum uplift of 6,000 feet is required to transport moisture from the Pacific source region; accordingly, most air masses are desiccated long before they reach the Malad basin. Heaviest precipitation is generally associated with steep pressure gradients in the midtroposphere that are so oriented as to cause a deep landward penetration of moisture from the Pacific Ocean. Annual water yields in the project area range from about 0.8 inch in the, lower Malad Valley to more than 19 inches on the high peaks north and east of Malad City. The mean annual water yield for the entire basin is 4 inches, or about 115,000 acre-feet. Evaporation is greatest in July when about 7 inches is lost from lakes, reservoirs, and waterlogged areas; losses from free-water surfaces may be as much .as 38 inches annually. An extensive ground-water reservoir consisting of sand and gravel interbedded with relatively impermeable beds of silt .and clay underlies much of the Malad Valley. Wells near the center of the valley exceeding 700 feet in depth do not reach bedrock. The Woodruff fault, which transects the constricted lower Malad Valley, is one of the main factors creating artesian conditions south of the latitude of Malad City. Recharge is obtained principally from mountain runoff which flows onto highly permeable alluvial fans surrounding the valley and from streams that flow across the valley floor. On the basis of a water balance analysis, under flow from the project area was estimated to be 28,000 acre-feet annually, surface-water outflow was 51,000 acre-feet, and transbasin imports were about 4,000 acre-feet. The principal tributaries of the Malad River are perennial along their upper and middle reaches and have well-sustained low flows. During the growing season, all surface water entering the Malad Valley is used for irrigation. Spine irrigation is practiced in the principal tributary valleys; however, a shortage of suitable reservoir sites has hampered surface-water development in these areas. The highly porous deposits underlying the Malad Valley tend to attenuate flood peaks. An unusual combination of meteorologic events early in 1962 effectively counteracted the high absorptive capacity of the valley and predisposed the basin to high flood risk. Subsequent rapid snowmelt combined with frozen ground produced the extraordinary flood of February 12, 1962. Calcium and bicarbonate commonly are the most abundant ions in the surface waters of the upper Malad River basin. In August 1967, the dissolved-solids content of streamflow ranged from 200 to 350 milligrams per liter in the middle and upper parts of the basin; however, much greater values were measured in the Malad River between Woddruff and Cherry Creek Lane. With the exception of that reach, the surface water of the project area is suitable for irrigating all but the most sensitive crops. The total water yield is not sufficient to meet all the water needs of the basin. A comprehensive water-management plan is required to ensure optimal use of the water resource.

Idaho↗
USGS2017

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

This report describes a hydrologic model for the upper Deschutes Basin in central Oregon developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow model (GSFLOW). The upper Deschutes Basin, which drains much of the eastern side of the Cascade Range in Oregon, is underlain by large areas of permeable volcanic rock. That permeability, in combination with the large annual precipitation at high elevations, results in a substantial regional aquifer system and a stream system that is heavily groundwater dominated. The upper Deschutes Basin is also an area of expanding population and increasing water demand for public supply and agriculture. Surface water was largely developed for agricultural use by the mid-20th century, and is closed to additional appropriations. Consequently, water users look to groundwater to satisfy the growing demand. The well‑documented connection between groundwater and the stream system, and the institutional and legal restrictions on streamflow depletion by wells, resulted in the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) instituting a process whereby additional groundwater pumping can be permitted only if the effects to streams are mitigated, for example, by reducing permitted surface-water diversions. Implementing such a program requires understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of effects to streams from groundwater pumping. A groundwater model developed in the early 2000s by the USGS and OWRD has been used to provide insights into the distribution of streamflow depletion by wells, but lacks spatial resolution in sensitive headwaters and spring areas. The integrated model developed for this project, based largely on the earlier model, has a much finer grid spacing allowing resolution of sensitive headwater streams and important spring areas, and simulates a more complete set of surface processes as well as runoff and groundwater flow. In addition, the integrated model includes improved representation of subsurface geology and explicitly simulates the effects of hydrologically important fault zones not included in the previous model. The upper Deschutes Basin GSFLOW model was calibrated using an iterative trial and error approach using measured water-level elevations (water levels) from 800 wells, 144 of which have time series of 10 or more measurements. Streamflow was calibrated using data from 21 gage locations. At 14 locations where measured flows are heavily influenced by reservoir operations and irrigation diversions, so called “ naturalized ” flows, with the effects of reservoirs and diversion removed, developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, were used for calibration. Surface energy and moisture processes such as solar radiation, snow accumulation and melting, and evapotranspiration were calibrated using national datasets as well as data from long-term measurement sites in the basin. The calibrated Deschutes GSFLOW model requires daily precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature data, and monthly data describing groundwater pumping and artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals (which are a significant source of groundwater recharge). The calibrated model simulates the geographic distribution of hydraulic head over the 5,000 ft range measured in the basin, with a median absolute residual of about 53 ft. Temporal variations in head resulting from climate cycles, pumping, and canal leakage are well simulated over the model area. Simulated daily streamflow matches gaged flows or calculated naturalized flows for streams including the Crooked and Metolius Rivers, and lower parts of the mainstem Deschutes River. Seasonal patterns of runoff are less well fit in some upper basin streams. Annual water balances of streamflow are good over most of the model domain. Model fit and overall capabilities are appropriate for the objectives of the project. The integrated model results confirm findings from other studies and models indicating that most streamflow in the upper Deschutes Basin comes directly from groundwater discharge. The integrated model provides additional insights about the components of streamflow including direct groundwater discharge to streams, interflow, groundwater discharge to the land surface (Dunnian flow), and direct runoff (Hortonian flow). The new model provides improved capability for exploring the timing and distribution of streamflow capture by wells, and the hydrologic response to changes in other external stresses such as canal operation, irrigation, and drought. Because the model uses basic meteorological data as the primary input; and simulates surface energy and moisture balances, groundwater recharge and flow, and all components of streamflow; it is well suited for exploring the hydrologic response to climate change, although no such simulations are included in this report. The model was developed as a tool for future application; however, example simulations are provided in this report. In the example simulations, the model is used to explore the influence of well location and geologic structure on stream capture by pumping wells. Wells were simulated at three locations within a 12-mi area close to known groundwater discharge areas and crossed by a regional fault zone. Simulations indicate that the magnitude and timing of stream capture from pumping is largely controlled by the geographic location of the wells, but that faults can have a large influence on the propagation of pumping stresses.

Oregon↗
USGS2000

Hydrology and water and sediment quality at James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge near Kahuku, Island of Oahu, Hawaii

The James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge occupies two lowland marsh and pond complexes on the northern coastal plain of Oahu: the mostly natural ponds and wetlands of the Punamano Unit and the constructed ponds of the Kii Unit. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages the Refuge primarily to protect and enhance habitat for four endangered species of Hawaiian waterbirds. Kii Unit is fed by artesian wells and rainfall, whereas Punamano Unit is fed naturally by rainfall, runoff, and ground-water seepage. Streams drain from the uplands into lowland ditches that pass through Kii Unit on their way to the ocean. A high-capacity pump transfers water from the inner ditch terminus at Kii to the ocean outlet channel. Stormwaters also exit the inner ditch system over flood-relief swales near the outlet pump and through a culvert with a one-way valve. A hydrologic investigation was done from November 1996 through February 1998 to identify and quantify principal inflows and outflows of water to and from the Refuge, identify hydraulic factors affecting flooding, document ground-water/surface-water interactions, determine the adequacy of the current freshwater supply, and determine water and sediment quality. These goals were accomplished by installing and operating a network of stream-gaging stations, meteorology stations, and shallow ground-water piezometers, by computing water budgets for the two Refuge units, and by sampling and analyzing water and pond-bottom sediments for major ions, trace metals, and organic compounds. Streamflow during the study was dominated by winter stormflows, followed by a gradual recession of flow into summer 1997, as water that had been stored in alluvial fans drained to lowland ditches. Outflow at the ditch terminus in 1997 was 125 million gallons greater than measured inflow to the coastal plain, mainly reflecting gains from ground water along the ditches between outlying gages and the ditch terminus. Of the measured 1997 outflow, 98 percent was through the Kii outlet pump, with the outlet culvert valve only opening for brief periods during storms. Large volumes of stormflow overflowed the flood-relief swales unmeasured. The largest storm of the study, in November 1996, was estimated to have a flood frequency of about 3 to 4 years. Streamflow exceeded culvert capacity and overtopped Kamehameha Highway at Kalaeokahipa Stream and Hospital ditch. Slight overbank flooding in Kii ditch resulted strictly from high discharge. Minor overbank flooding farther out on the coastal plain probably was caused mainly by the small hydraulic gradients available to convey stormflows along the lowland ditches. Stormwaters flooded Kii ponds and flowed back upstream along Punamano ditch into Punamano marsh, introducing suspended sediment and possibly other contaminants to the Refuge. Two smaller storms in January 1997 resulted in smaller flows and no overbank flooding. The Kii outlet pump ran continuously for 7 days during the November 1996 storm and for 1 to 2 days during the January 1997 storms. During all three storms, the outlet culvert valve opened and the inner ditches overtopped the flood-relief swales, allowing free outflow of water from the inner ditch. Backwater effects hindered drainage during the January 1997 storms at Hospital ditch at Kamehameha Highway, and at Punamano ditch at Nudist Camp Road (where the backflow into Punamano marsh in November 1996 constituted an extreme backwater effect). A probable marine backwater effect was imposed at the ocean outlet ditch during the November 1996 storm through a combination of high spring tides and wave setup from large surf. Whether this backwater effect propagated upstream in the ditches to affect inland sites could not be determined conclusively. A sand plug may have built up in the ocean outlet channel before the November 1996 storm, but if so, it probably washed out prior to, or early in the storm, and was not present at the time of peak stage at inland sites. A season-long buildup of the sand plug in late 1997 was inferred from rising water levels in the outlet ditch. Seawater flows up the outlet channel or over the sand berm and into the outer ditch system on most high tides, and particularly during spring high tides. Ponds and ditches of the Refuge and surrounding lowlands have mud- and clay-lined bottoms that form an effective confining unit and inhibit interaction with an underlying shallow limestone aquifer. At Kii Unit, pond levels are higher than adjacent ditch levels and underlying ground-water levels, establishing lateral and downward head gradients that could foster seepage losses from the ponds. Regional ground-water discharge from the Koolau aquifer to the coastal-plain sediments is mostly diffuse, but is concentrated where ridges of Koolau Basalt plunge beneath coastal-plain sediments near Punamano Unit and at the head of Hospital ditch. Kii ditch gains brackish ground water downstream of Kamehameha Highway. Wastewater disposal from the sewage treatment plant adjoining Kii Unit poses little or no threat to Refuge habitat. Disposal is at six injection wells located 0.45 mi away at Kahuku, and the wells inject into confined limestone aquifers that do not extend to Kii Unit. The natural freshwater supply to Punamano Unit is adequate for maintaining the wildlife habitat, judging from stable pond levels and low salinities there. A monthly water budget for Punamano showed an apparent annual deficit in measurable flows in 1997, requiring unmeasured ground-water gains equalling 51 inches of water. The freshwater supply to Kii Unit is inadequate according to Refuge managers, because there is not enough water to manipulate levels adequately in the ponds during most of the year, and particularly during the driest months. This is confirmed by monthly deficits in the water budget for the Kii ponds during summer months. However, the Kii budget showed an annual surplus in measurable flows for 1997 equalling 24 inches of water. Unmeasured losses are required to explain the apparent annual surplus, such as discharge to the ditches through pond water-control structures and downward and/or lateral ground-water seepage. The apparent surplus at Kii is strictly hydrologic and is not a surplus in a management sense; it cannot be stored or used to supply the Refuge, but instead reflects losses from the system that render this amount of water unavailable for use. The budget year, 1997, was drier than normal (24 percent below long-term mean rainfall) and so the measured potential evaporation for 1997 was probably higher than the long-term mean. Few metals or organic compounds of potential concern were detected in pond and ditch waters and in pond-bottom sediments. Detected pesticides were at trace levels or just above minimum reporting limits. Exceptions that exceeded quality guidelines for freshwater sediment were copper and zinc in sediment from Kii ponds C and D, and copper in sediment from Punamano north pond. Therefore, urban and agricultural runoff probably have contributed little in the way of harmful metals or organic compounds to the Refuge, although the potential for such contribution remains from periodic flooding of the ponds by ditch stormflows. Salinity was low throughout most Refuge waters, qualifying as fresh to slightly brackish and suitable for the environmental needs of Refuge fauna. Higher salinities have been observed in ditches during past periods of sugarcane cultivation and saltwater aquaculture, however. Resumption of saltwater aquaculture could raise ditch salinities if saltwater effluents are disposed directly into the ditches, as they were in the past.

Hawaii↗