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USGS2025

Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality

As demand for advanced technologies rises, mineral commodities will increase in geopolitical importance. To assess risks associated with mineral commodity supply chain disruptions, governmental agencies and others have developed "criticality" assessments, with criticality described using the economic impact and probability of supply chain disruptions. In previous work, subjective supply risk indicators were developed to approximate this probability, typically combining several factors such as supply diversity and political stability of trading partners, where indicator weightings can substantially impact results. This work explicitly quantifies trade barrier probability using an ensemble of several machine learning classifiers, with probability estimates informed by exogenous variables such as prior trade barrier implementation and global export dominance. Major differences in the high-probability countries and commodities are observed across models, but the ensemble method highlights Indonesia, China, Tanzania, and the United States as particularly high risk. This approach enables a direct, quantitative, objective approach to assessing trade barrier probability, enhancing risk identification and prioritization for policymakers.

SSRN↗
USGS2023

Explosive trachyte eruptions from the Al Efairia volcanic center in northern Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Harrat Rahat is an alkali basalt, continental, intraplate volcanic field located within the central-western part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The northern quarter of Harrat Rahat contains evolved volcanic products that achieve trachyte compositions (>60 weight percent SiO 2 ). Within the Al Efairia volcanic center, pyroclastic-flow and -surge deposits that reflect explosive trachyte volcanism (and minor exposed lava domes that reflect effusive trachyte eruptions) sit at the surface as the youngest expression of volcanic activity within this part of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field. Five trachyte deposits emplaced explosively have been identified within the Al Efairia volcanic center based on geologic mapping, petrography, geochemistry, and paleomagnetism. These units are the trachytes of Um Rgaibah, Gura 5, Gura 4, Al Efairia, and Al Qayf, in descending stratigraphic order. Here, we present 14 40 Ar/ 39 Ar analyses from four of these units, which yield eruption ages of 4.2±5.2 thousand years (ka) for the trachyte of Um Rgaibah, 79.7±1.6 ka for the trachyte of Gura 5, 84.3±1.6 ka for the trachyte of Gura 4, and 88.0±1.8 ka for the trachyte of Al Efairia. The eruption age of the trachyte of Al Qayf has been constrained to between 410.3±3.4 and 418.8±1.9 ka using paleomagnetic correlations and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages from overlying and underlying intermediate composition lava flows. Most of these trachytes have distinct geochemical compositions, petrographic characteristics, and directions of remanent magnetization. The exceptions are for the trachytes of Gura 4 and Gura 5, which overlap in their geochemical, petrographic, paleomagnetic, and geochronologic affinities. Based on these similarities, we interpret the trachytes of Gura 4 and Gura 5 to have erupted during a closely spaced (a few decades) time interval from the same magma batch but from craters that are >2 kilometers (km) apart. The eruption of the trachyte of Al Efairia at 88.0±1.8 ka is the result of a different magma batch that erupted a few thousand years prior to the trachytes of Gura 4 and Gura 5. The Al Efairia volcanic center is remarkably different from the Matan volcanic center located ~10 km to the north, which has also erupted young (<150 ka) trachytes. The Matan volcanic center has been shown to produce trachyte compositions only after eruption of basalt followed by intermediate lava flows, whereas only trachyte compositions have erupted within the Al Efairia volcanic center over this same time interval.

Al Efairia volcanic center, Harrat Rahat↗
USGS2025

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗
USGS2023

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2024

Automated, near real-time ground-motion processing at the U.S. Geological Survey

We describe automated ground‐motion processing software named gmprocess that has been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in support of near‐real‐time earthquake hazard products. Because of the open‐source development process, this software has benefitted from the involvement and contributions of a broad community and has been used for a wider range of applications than was initially envisioned. Here, we give an overview and introduction to the software, including how it has leveraged other open‐source libraries. We highlight some key features that gmprocess provides, compare response spectra calculated with the automated processing approach of gmprocess to the response spectra provided by the Next Generation Attenuation projects, and summarize projects that have utilized gmprocess. These use‐cases demonstrate that this software development effort has been successfully leveraged in earthquake research activities both within and outside the USGS.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2024

Evaluating the impact of uncertainty in ground motion forecasts for post-earthquake impact modeling applications

The US Geological Survey’s (USGS) ShakeMap system provides a rapid characterization of strong ground shaking in areas directly affected by an earthquake. This study focuses on studying the aggregate effects of macroseismic shaking estimates from ShakeMap, expressed in terms of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI), when accounting for the uncertainty in forecasted ground motions. We use a Monte Carlo approach to generate numerous spatially correlated realizations of ground motions by utilizing a combination of circulant embedding and kriging techniques for efficiently handling the correlations. We then assessed the aggregate effects of shaking by looking at bin counts across these realizations. We demonstrate that the aggregate shaking regarding the mean macroseismic intensity estimates (from the ShakeMap output) is a biased representation of the aggregate shaking when shaking uncertainty is included. Incorporating shaking uncertainty can help to improve various downstream earthquake impact applications, such as the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) overall earthquake fatality distribution or estimates of shaking-induced ground failure impacts from consequential earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra Journal↗
USGS2023

Eruptive history of northern Harrat Rahat—Volume, timing, and composition of volcanism over the past 1.2 million years

Harrat Rahat, one of several large, basalt-dominated volcanic fields in the western part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a prime example of continental, intraplate volcanism. Excellent exposure makes this an outstanding site to investigate changing volcanic flux and composition through time. We present 93 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages and 6 36 Cl surface-exposure ages for volcanic deposits throughout northern Harrat Rahat that, integrated with a new geologic map, define 12 eruptive stages. Exposed volcanic deposits in the study area erupted less than 1.2 million years ago (Ma), and 214 of 234 identified eruptions occurred less than 570 thousand years ago (ka). Two eruptions were in the Holocene, including a historically described basaltic eruption in 1256 C.E. and a trachyte eruption newly recognized as Holocene (4.2±5.2 ka). An estimated approximately 82 cubic kilometers (km 3 ; dense rock equivalent) of volcanic products can be documented as having erupted since 1.2 Ma, though this is a lower limit because of concealment of deposits older than 570 ka. Over the last 570 thousand years (k.y.), the average eruption rate was 0.14 cubic kilometers per thousand years (km 3 /k.y.), but volcanism was episodic with periods alternating between low (0.04–0.06 km 3 /k.y.) and high (0.1–0.3 km 3 /k.y.) effusion rates. Before 180 ka, eruptions vented from the volcanic field’s dominant eastern vent axis and from a subsidiary, diffuse, western vent axis. After 180 ka, volcanism focused along the eastern vent axis, and the composition of volcanism varied systematically along its length from basalt dominated in the north to trachyte dominated in the south. We hypothesize that these compositional variations younger than 180 k.y. reflect the growth of a mafic intrusive complex beneath the southern part of the vent axis, which led to the development of evolved magmas. Lastly, these new age data allow for a reassessment of the volcanic recurrence interval at northern Harrat Rahat. Based on available data, volcanism in northern Harrat Rahat over the last 180 k.y. is poorly described using a Poisson distribution with a single recurrence interval. Instead, data for northern Harrat Rahat are better described using a mixed exponential distribution that is applicable for volcanic systems characterized by two different eruptive states, where one state with a longer recurrence interval corresponding to periods of low eruption frequency and one state with a shorter recurrence interval corresponding to periods of high eruption frequency. The preferred model for northern Harrat Rahat over the last 180 k.y. uses a long recurrence interval of 4.0 k.y. and a short recurrence interval of 0.22 k.y.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2024

Evaluation of an open earthquake early warning system in Mexico, and laboratory tests of their sensors

Microelectromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers are useful for seismological and engineering applications because of their ability to record unsaturated large seismic signals. Recent advances in MEMS technologies enable the design of instruments with improved capabilities that also allow the recording of small signals. As a result, MEMS can be useful across a broad dynamic range and for both major earthquakes and smaller magnitude events. Here, we analyze the performance of a MEMS‐based accelerometer with the capability of real‐time data transmission. We discuss the self‐noise level, dynamic range, and sensitivity, along with the timing precision and data transmission latency, and compare these parameters to other MEMS‐based instruments. We also summarize observations from a regional network deployed in southern Mexico over a period of 3+ yr for the purpose of earthquake early warning. In addition to the sensor evaluation, we present a large, openly available data set of strong motion data from the Mexican network that comprises continuous ground‐motion records from 24 accelerometers in the period between 2017 and 2022.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2025

Low-sulfidation epithermal deposits of the central Basin and Range Province, USA

The Basin and Range Province is host to many important low-sulfidation epithermal deposits. Within this broad zone of extension, epithermal deposits are hosted by specific areas of Miocene and younger bimodal volcanism. In northern Nevada, rifting and related volcanic activity occurred in response to thermal bulging during the development of the Yellowstone hotspot. The Colorado River Extensional Corridor in southern Nevada, adjoining eastern California and northwestern Arizona, is a major zone of Miocene crustal extension formed during the transformation of the western margin of North America from a convergent to a transform plate boundary. The style of mineralization in the low-sulfidation epithermal deposits in these areas is strongly controlled by the nature of the volcanic successions. Highgrade, low-tonnage deposits are commonly found in flow-dominated volcanic successions where ore deposition occurred through short-lived periods of fluid flashing. In contrast, low-grade, large-tonnage deposits are more commonly located in clastic-dominated successions where fluid infiltration of the permeable hosts and cooling predominated.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon↗
USGS1988

Geology of an area near Brentwood, Williamson County, Tennessee

The lithology and geologic structure of an area near Brentwood, Williamson County, Tennessee, were studied to define the potential aquifers and confining units of the ground-water flow system. Four formations were identified. They are, in descending order, the Bigby-Cannon Limestone, the Hermitage Formation, the Carters Limestone, and the Lebanon Limestone. The Bigby-Cannon Limestone and the Carters Limestone are potential aquifers. The Hermitage Formation and the Lebanon Limestone are confining units. The Bigby-Cannon Limestone and the Hermitage Formation have been affected by recent erosion. Any variation of the Carters Limestone is controlled by pre-Carters erosion of the top of the Lebanon Limestone. The thickness of the Carters Limestone ranges from 65 to 79 feet. Structurally, the area reflects the regional northwest dip. A small scale anti-cline-syncline pair also is evident. This feature is not a result of erosion and also occurs in the T-3 bentonite bed in the Carters Limestone.

Tennessee↗
USGS2025

Quantitative subsurface characterization illuminates the origin of the Quaternary Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) is vital to U.S. food security and global agricultural supply. However, quantitative understanding of its Quaternary origin, architecture, and hydrologic function remains incomplete. Here we develop a three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic model to characterize the deposition of clay and silt, fine-medium sands, and graveliferous sands using lithologic data from 75,000 boreholes compiled across the Lower Mississippi Valley and a geostatistical method—interval kriging. We find that cyclic glacial entrenchments, evidenced by remnants of pre-Wisconsinan postglacial sediments, alongside geodynamic activities shaped the MRVA basal configuration. Stratal weakening from faulting and salt diapirism enhanced glacial incision and thereby produced abrupt aquifer thickening. We demarcate the top of graveliferous sands as the regional marker of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. The MRVA hydrostratigraphy reveals hydrologic function and geologic controls on groundwater storage and quality, advancing the assessment of aquifer sustainability under a changing climate, with implications for alluvial aquifers globally.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗
USGS2026

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, middle Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

Historical, future, and potential stream capture from groundwater pumping in the middle Humboldt River Basin (MHRB), Nevada, is estimated using a calibrated numerical groundwater flow model. The model was developed to estimate (1) stream capture, which is the change in flux between the groundwater system and the Humboldt River and tributaries, and (2) change in streamflow, which is the change in streamflow estimated for the Imlay gage on the Humboldt River (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historical stream capture for water years (WYs) 1961–2015 is estimated using recorded and estimated groundwater pumping during that period. Future (predictive) stream capture was based on historical stresses (WYs 1961–2015) using a scenario that simulated non-mine pumping from WY 2015 at a uniform rate for 100 years into the future. Potential stream capture throughout the middle Humboldt River Basin from groundwater pumping during varying durations of time are presented in a series of capture maps. Maps also are presented that show the potential to capture from groundwater evapotranspiration, as well as the storage changes for pumping duration of 100 years. Estimates of historical stream capture from the mainstem Humboldt River during the early 1960s are less than 400 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) when groundwater withdrawals and pumping rates were relatively small compared to more recent times. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, groundwater withdrawals increased and estimated historical stream capture also increased from about 4,000 acre-ft/yr in the late 1980s and early 1990s to as much as 18,800 acre-feet (acre-ft) in WY 1998. In WY 2015, estimated historical stream capture declined to about 13,000 acre-ft because of decreasing groundwater withdrawals and lower streamflow during the drought of WYs 2012–15, resulting in less stream water available for capture. Stream capture was estimated for 100 years into the future based on WY 2015 non-mine pumping rates and mine-dewatering activity through WY 2015. Stream capture is forecast to increase to about 23,000 acre-ft/yr, and streamflow in the Humboldt River could decrease by as much as 19,000 acre-ft/yr. Pumping for mine-dewatering and the associated discharge of that water affects streamflow in the Humboldt River at Imlay, Nevada (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historically, from WYs 1991 to 2015, streamflow was greater at Imlay gage during active mine-dewatering from mine-water discharge operations and increased by as much as 105,000 acre-ft in WY 1998. The increase was attributed mostly to the discharge of groundwater from mine-related dewatering operations directly into the mainstem Humboldt River or its tributaries, with some of this increase associated with return flows from discharge to rapid infiltration basins. Results indicate that streamflow at Imlay gage is expected to decrease by as much as 1,600 acre-ft/yr 30 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. The streamflow reductions at the Imlay gage are expected to then decrease to around 500 acre-ft/yr, 100 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. Potential capture maps were produced for pumping durations of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Capture map results indicate that areas of greater potential stream capture occur adjacent to the Humboldt River and for upstream tributaries areas north of the Humboldt River.

Nevada↗
USGS2024

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗
USGS2025

Avian navigation: Comparing the olfactory navigational “map” and the infrasound direction-finding hypotheses to aeronautics

Animal navigation has long been a fascinating but bewildering subject. Humans and animals might well share similar navigational strategies because they developed within the same physical environments. A “map-and-compass” model has been proposed to explain the two-step avian navigational process, but the “map” step has remained elusive. Although scalar values from bicoordinate geomagnetic or atmospheric olfactory gradients have been considered foundational to the avian map, neither has proved convincing engendering decades of controversy. The olfactory map, and an alternative infrasound direction-finding (IDF) hypothesis, are discussed in this review. The olfactory map hypothesis currently requires extensive stable gradients of trace-odor ratios, but such gradients are highly unlikely within a turbulent and rapidly mixed lower atmosphere. The IDF hypothesis, on the other hand, postulates a two-step navigational model analogous to the maritime and aeronautical radio direction-finding technique. This review was also written to encourage further investigation, and direct testing, of the acoustic navigational process. The IDF hypothesis, at present, appears the better explanation of observed avian navigational behavior and accuracy within the atmosphere’s physical environment.

Journal of Comparative Physiology A↗
USGS2024

Self-guided decision support groundwater modelling with Python

The GMDSI tutorial notebooks repository provides learners with a comprehensive set of tutorials for self-guided training on decision-support groundwater modelling using Python-based tools. Although targeted at groundwater modelling, they are based around model-agnostic tools and readily transferable to other environmental modelling workflows. The tutorials are divided into three parts. The first covers fundamental theoretical concepts. These are intended as background reading for reference on an as-needed basis. Tutorials in the second part introduce learners to some of the core concepts parameter estimation in a groundwater modelling context, as well as providing a gentle introduction to the PEST, PEST++ and pyEMU software. Lastly, the third part demonstrates how to implement highly-parameterized applied decision-support modelling workflows. The tutorials aim to provide examples of both “how to use” the software as well as “how to think” about using the software. A key advantage to using notebooks in this context is that the workflows described run the same code as practitioners would run on a large-scale real- world application. Using a small synthetic model facilitates rapid progression through the workflow.

Journal of Open Source Education↗
USGS2025

Estimation of dynamic geologic CO2 storage resources in the Illinois Basin, including effects of brine extraction, anisotropy, and hydrogeologic heterogeneity

Since the vast majority of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resources in the United States are in deep saline aquifers, optimizing the use of these saline storage resources could be crucial for efficient development of geologic CO 2 storage (GCS) resources and basin- or larger-scale deployment of GCS in the country. Maximum CO 2 injection rates can be enhanced by extracting brine from the CO 2 storage unit. However, disposal of the extracted brine is both a technological and economic challenge. The lowest-cost option would likely be reinjection of the extracted brine into another formation above or below the CO 2 storage unit. Therefore, it is important to estimate brine injectivity as it will constrain the potential to increase CO 2 injectivity at an injection site that has access to multiple geologic storage units where either CO 2 or brine can be injected. Using a simulation-optimization framework, coupled with a non-isothermal, multiphase CO 2 -water-salt equation-of-state module, we developed a computationally efficient method for evaluating optimization of simultaneous CO 2 injection, brine extraction, and brine (re)injection at hypothetical injection sites deployed across a geologic basin. The Illinois basin is ideal for testing our methodology because it contains multiple geologic storage units with seals in between them to isolate injection of CO 2 in one unit from interfering with the injection of either brine or CO 2 in another unit above or below it. In addition, we investigated the relative effects of variation in key geologic parameters as well as two reservoir structures (hydrogeologic heterogeneity/anisotropy and homogeneity/isotropy) on CO 2 injectivities and enhancement of CO 2 injectivity through extracting brine. Results suggest that permeability, depth, and especially thickness of the storage unit could be the most influential parameters determining CO 2 injectivity. They also suggest that only injecting CO 2 into the storage unit with the greatest injectivity, enhancing that unit’s injectivity by extracting brine, and disposing of the produced brine in other suitable units could maximize total CO 2 injectivity in limited regions of the basin. At the majority of simulated injection sites, however, we found that injecting CO 2 into all of the accessible and suitable storage units was more likely to maximize the CO 2 storage resource.

Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana↗
USGS2025

Modeling interconnected minerals markets with multicommodity supply curves: Examining the copper-cobalt-nickel system

Demand for many of the metals used in the energy transition is expected to grow rapidly. Many of these are by-products, often considered critical because their production responds weakly to prices and is instead tied to the economics of the host mineral. We present a model of prices and production for jointly produced commodities that accounts for interconnectivity between host and by-product markets at the mine level. We demonstrate this method using the copper–cobalt–nickel system, in which approximately 99% of cobalt is a by-product of copper or nickel mining. Our results show that the model more accurately captures the economic benefits of diversified mine outputs than previous approaches. Furthermore, changes in demand drivers for any two commodities produce non-linear effects on production and price. We challenge the prior best-practice assumption that cobalt cannot impact the copper or nickel markets. Recognizing the importance of both copper and cobalt for future electrification, we emphasize that incentivizing the copper industry to reduce cobalt supply risks could inadvertently undermine copper supply.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2025

Climate-driven sulfate export in alpine watersheds may stimulate methylmercury production

Climate change is increasing sulfate export and changing wetland extent in mountain regions. These changes may increase microbially mediated production of the neurotoxic substance methylmercury due to enhanced sulfate metabolism in mountain environments. Here, we assess methylmercury concentrations and formation rates across high-elevation wetlands in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We also investigate sulfate controls on methylmercury production within subalpine peatlands by amending soils with sulfate to mimic increased stream export of sulfate from the alpine zone and measuring methylmercury formation rates for different sulfate treatments. We found that subalpine peatlands have statistically significant higher methylmercury concentrations and formation rates compared to alpine, mineral-soil wetlands. Methylmercury production in subalpine peatlands also increased significantly ( p < 0.05) following sulfate additions; the highest rates occurred in sediments with intermediate extractable sulfate concentrations (∼0.60–1.4 mg sulfate g −1 dry soil). Our study is the first to identify soil sulfate-related thresholds for methylmercury production and sulfate-limitation of methylmercury production in subalpine peatlands. These findings highlight important linkages between climate-driven mineral weathering and mercury cycling in mountain regions globally.

Colorado↗