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At least 1,243 records · Page 69Linked to original sources

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Geology and ground water in Door County, Wisconsin, with emphasis on contamination potential in the Silurian dolomite

Door County, a recreational and fruit-growing area bordering Lake Michigan in northeastern Wisconsin, has had a long history of ground-water contamination from surface and near-surface sources. Contamination is most severe in late summer when fruit-canning operations and the influx of tourists create additional wastes. Silurian dolomite is the upper bedrock unit in the county and yields generally adequate supplies of very hard water with locally objectionable concentrations of iron and nitrate. Thin soil cover and well-fractured dolomitic bedrock give easy entry to ground-water contaminants throughout large parts of Door County. Many contaminants enter the dolomite by surface or near-surface seepage. There is little attenuation of contamination concentrations in the well-jointed dolomite, and contaminants may travel long distances underground in a relatively short time. The major source of ground-water contamination is bacteria, from individual waste-disposal systems, agricultural, industrial, and municipal wastes. Areas of the county underlain by contaminated zones include only a small percentage of the total ground-water system and are separated by large volumes of ground water free of contamination. (Woodard-USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Movement and fate of creosote waste in ground water, Pensacola, Florida; U.S. Geological Survey toxic waste--ground-water contamination program

In 1983, the U.S. Geological Survey, Office of Hazardous Waste Hydrology, selected the former American Creosote Works site near Pensacola, Florida as a national research demonstration area. Seventy-nine years (1902-81) of seepage from unlined discharge impoundments had released creosote, diesel fuel, and pentachlorophenol (since 1950) wastes into the ground-water system. A cluster of from 2 to 5 wells constructed at different depths at 9 sites yielded water which revealed contamination 600 feet downgradient and to a depth of 100 feet below land surface near the site. The best cross-sectional representation of the contaminant plume was obtained from samples collected and analyzed for oxidation-reduction sensitive inorganic chemical constituents. Energy dispersive x-ray fluorescence detected recently formed iron carbonate in soil samples from highly reducing ground-water zones. Approximately eighty specific organic contaminants were isolated from ground-water samples by gas-chromotography/mass spectrometry. Column studies indicate the dimethyl phenols are not sorbed or degraded by the sand-and-gravel aquifer materials. Five of nineteen individual phenolic and related compounds are biodegradable based on anaerobic digestor experiments with ACW site bacterial populations. The potential impacts in the nearby Pensacola Bay biotic community are being evaluated. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Natural attenuation of chlorinated-hydrocarbon contamination at Fort Wainwright, Alaska: A hydrogeochemical and microbiological investigation workplan

Natural attenuation processes include biological degradation, by which microorganisms break down contaminants into simpler product compounds; adsorption of contaminants to soil particles, which decreases the mass of contaminants dissolved in ground water; and dispersion, which decreases dissolved contaminant concentrations through dilution. The primary objectives of this study are to (1) assess the degree to which such natural processes are attenuating chlorinated-hydrocarbon contamination in ground water, and (2) evaluate the effects of ground-water/surface-water interactions on natural-attenuation processes in the area of the former East and West Quartermasters Fueling Systems for Fort Wainwright, Alaska. The study will include investigations of the hydrologic, geochemical, and microbiological processes occurring at this site that influence the transport and fate of chlorinated hydrocarbons in ground water. To accomplish these objectives, a data-collection program has been initiated that includes measurements of water-table elevations and the stage of the Chena River; measurements of vertical temperature profiles within the subsurface; characterization of moisture distribution and movement in the unsaturated zone; collection of ground-water samples for determination of both organic and inorganic chemical constituents; and collection of ground-water samples for enumeration of microorganisms and determination of their potential to mineralize contaminants. We will use results from the data-collection program described above to refine our conceptual model of hydrology and contaminant attenuation at this site. Measurements of water-table elevations and river stage will help us to understand the magnitude and direction of ground-water flow and how changes in the stage of the Chena River affect ground-water flow. Because ambient ground water and surface water typically have different temperature characteristics, temperature monitoring will likely provide further insight into ground-water/surface-water interactions in the subsurface. Characterization of the unsaturated zone will improve our understanding of interactions among ground water, the unsaturated zone, and the atmosphere. The interactions likely of importance to this study include the migration of water, dissolved contaminants, nutrients, and gases (oxygen, carbon dioxide, and methane) between the saturated and unsaturated zones. We will use the results of ground-water chemical analyses to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of (1) chlorinated-hydrocarbon contaminants and their degradation products, (2) oxidation-reduction indicators, (3) nutrients, and (4) major ground-water ions. These water-quality data will provide insight into ground-water flow directions, interactions between ground water and surface water, attenuation of contaminant concentrations caused by dispersion, and intrinsic microbiological processes. Microbiological analyses will indicate whether microorganisms at the site are capable of degrading the contaminants of interest, and will allow us to estimate their potential to attenuate existing contamination. Physical and chemical data interpreted as part of the analysis of ground water and surface water mixing will improve our understanding of the relationship between water quality and contaminant source mixing.

Alaska↗

The Yellowstone hotspot, Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, and human geography

Active geologic processes associated with the Yellowstone hotspot are fundamental in shaping the landscapes of the greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE), a high volcanic plateau flanked by a crescent of still higher mountainous terrain. The processes associated with the Yellowstone hotspot are volcanism, faulting, and uplift and are observed in the geology at the surface. We attribute the driving forces responsible for the northeastward progression of these processes to a thermal plume rising through the Earth’s mantle into the base of the southwest-moving North American plate. This progression began 16 million years ago (Ma) near the Nevada-Oregon border and arrived at Yellowstone about 2 Ma. Before arrival of the hotspot, an older landscape existed, particularly mountains created during the Laramide orogeny about 70–50 Ma and volcanic terrain formed by Absaroka andesitic volcanism mostly between 50–45 Ma. These landscapes were more muted than the present, hotspot-modified landscape because the Laramide-age mountains had worn down and an erosion surface of low relief had developed on the Absaroka volcanic terrain. The Yellowstone Plateau was built by hotspot volcanism of rhyolitic lavas and caldera-forming rhyolite tuffs (ignimbrites). Streams eroding back into the edges of this plateau have created scenic waterfalls and canyons such as the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone and Lewis Canyon. Rhyolite is poor in plant nutrients and forms sandy, well-drained soils that support the monotonous, fire-adapted lodgepole pine forests of the Yellowstone Plateau. Non-rhyolitic rocks surround this plateau and sustain more varied vegetation, including spruce, fir, and whitebark pine forests broken by grassy meadows. Heat from the hotspot rises upward and drives Yellowstone’s famed geysers, hot springs, and mudpots. These thermal waters are home to specialized, primitive ecosystems, rich in algae and bacteria. The rock alteration associated with hydrothermal systems creates the bright colors of Yellowstone’s Grand Canyon. Basin-and-range-style faulting has accompanied migration of the hotspot to Yellowstone and formed the linear mountains and valleys that occur north and south of the hotspot track, which is the present-day eastern Snake River Plain. High rates of basin-and-range faulting occurred adjacent to the migrating Yellowstone hotspot, creating distinctive landscapes within the GYE such as the Teton Range/Jackson Hole, with characteristic rugged, forested ranges and adjacent flat-floored grassy valleys. The difference in altitude between the mountains and valleys provides a topographic gradient in which vegetation maturation advances with altitude; animal-migration patterns also follow this trend. The valleys provide natural meadows, agricultural land, town sites, and corridors for roads. Uplift of the GYE by as much as 1 km (3,000 ft) during the last 5 million years has resulted in ongoing erosion of deep, steep-walled valleys. Many prominent ecological characteristics of Yellowstone derive from this hotspot-induced uplift, including the moderate- to high- altitude terrain and associated cool temperatures and deep snowfall. Modern and Pleistocene climate and associated vegetation patterns strongly relate to the topography created by the hotspot and its track along the eastern Snake River Plain. Winter air masses from the moist northern Pacific Ocean traverse the topographic low of the Snake River Plain to where orographic rise onto the Yellowstone Plateau and adjacent mountains produces deep snow. A winter precipitation shadow forms on the lee (eastern) sides of the GYE. During Pleistocene glacial times, this moisture conduit provided by the hotspot-track-produced ice-age glaciers that covered the core of the present GYE. These glaciers sculpted bedrock and produced glacial moraines that are both forested and unforested, sand and gravel of ice-marginal streams and outwash gravels that are commonly covered with sagebrush-grassland, and silty lake sediments that are commonly covered by lush grassland such as Hayden Valley. The effects of the Yellowstone hotspot also profoundly shaped the human history in the GYE. Uplift associated with the hotspot elevates the GYE to form the Continental Divide, and streams drain radially outward like spokes from a hub. Inhabitants of the GYE 12,000–10,000 years ago, as well as more recent inhabitants, followed the seasonal green-up of plants and migrating animals up into the mountain areas. During European immigration, people settled around Yellowstone in the lower parts of the drainages and established roads, irrigation systems, and cultural associations. The core Yellowstone highland is too harsh for agriculture and inhospitable to people in the winter. Beyond this core, urban and rural communities exist in valleys and are separated by upland areas. The partitioning inhibits any physical connection of communities, which in turn complicates pursuit of common interests across the whole GYE. Settlements thus geographically isolated evolved as diverse, independent communities

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

Biogeochemical and hydrological processes controlling the transport and fate of 1,2-dibromoethane (EDB) in soil and ground water, central Florida

Widespread contamination of ground water in central Florida by 1,2-dibromoethane (EDB) has resulted because of its heavy usage as a soil fumigant during a 20-year period, its relatively high aqueous solubility, and the low sorption capacity of the highly permeable sandy soils lacking organic matter. Two models were used to improve understanding of biogeochemical and hydrological processes that control the transport and fate of EDB in soil and ground water. First, a mass-balance model was developed to estimate the maximum concentration of EDB in ground water resulting from known application rates of EDB. Key processes that were quantified in the model included volatilization, diffusion of EDB vapor in soils, partitioning between aqueous and gaseous phases, sorption of EDB vapor on organic carbon and soil particles, chemical and biological degradation reactions, and nonreversible binding of EDB to soils. Model calculations using an EDB half-life of 0.65 year closely reproduced the maximum observed concentrations in ground water, 37 and 0.22 micrograms per liter, at downgradient sites in two study areas in central Florida. Maximum concentrations of EDB in ground water also were estimated in a second model that incorporated an analytical solution to the three-dimensional advection-dispersion equation for instantaneous point sources of EDB entering the flow systems in the two study areas. The model used an EDB half-life of 0.65 year (obtained from the mass-balance calculations), mean ground-water flow velocities of 0.6 to 1 meter per day, coefficients of longitudinal hydro-dynamic dispersion of 0.6 to 1.0 square meter per day, and coefficients of transverse hydrodynamic dispersion of 0.1 square meter per day. Peak concentrations of EDB in ground water calculated from the analytical model agreed closely with observed peak concentrations measured from 1983 through 1987.

Florida↗

Grid-cell-based crop water accounting for the famine early warning system

Rainfall monitoring is a regular activity of food security analysts for sub-Saharan Africa due to the potentially disastrous impact of drought. Crop water accounting schemes are used to track rainfall timing and amounts relative to phenological requirements, to infer water limitation impacts on yield. Unfortunately, many rain gauge reports are available only after significant delays, and the gauge locations leave large gaps in coverage. As an alternative, a grid-cell-based formulation for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) was tested for maize in Southern Africa. Grids of input variables were obtained from remote sensing estimates of rainfall, meteorological models, and digital soil maps. The spatial WRSI was computed for the 1996–97 and 1997–98 growing seasons. Maize yields were estimated by regression and compared with a limited number of reports from the field for the 1996–97 season in Zimbabwe. Agreement at a useful level ( r = 0·80) was observed. This is comparable to results from traditional analysis with station data. The findings demonstrate the complementary role that remote sensing, modelling, and geospatial analysis can play in an era when field data collection in sub-Saharan Africa is suffering an unfortunate decline.

Hydrological Processes↗

Mobility of 2,2',5,5'-tetrachlorobiphenyl in model systems containing bottom sediments and water from the lower Fox River, Wisconsin

Sediment-water partitioning and diffusive transport of 2,2’,5,5’-tetrachlorobiphenyl, PCB congener IUPAC #52 (TCB52) were examined in laboratory experiments with sediments from two sites in the lower Fox River, Wisconsin. Native water was pumped at controlled flow rates through cells containing sediments amended with a known activity of carbon-14-labeled TCB52. Concentrations of TCB52 in water and sediments were determined by liquid scintillation measurements of carbon-14 activity. Sediment-water partitioning was independent of flow rate for rates up to 8 m/d. Distribution coefficients (K d ) and soil-sorption coefficients (K oc ) were found to be at maximum levels 5–10 cm below the surface, despite an absence of significant variation in the fraction of organic carbon (f oc ) through the same profile. Other factors, such as the effects of colloids and microbial activity in the sediments, are likely to be important in controlling the PCB distribution. Log K d and log K oc ranges were 4.1–4.9 and 5.3–6.1, respectively, and calculated effective diffusivities at the sediment-water interface ranged from 3 to 8 × 10 −10 cm 2 /s. Gradual increases with time in TCB52 concentrations in the water phase, possibly due to effects of microbial activity, were observed. Diffusion experiments and models showed that the TCB52 migration rate within the sediment column is 8-9 mm/yr.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Grazed riparian management and stream channel response in southeastern Minnesota (USA) streams

The U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service has recommended domestic cattle grazing exclusion from riparian corridors for decades. This recommendation was based on a belief that domestic cattle grazing would typically destroy stream bank vegetation and in-channel habitat. Continuous grazing (CG) has caused adverse environmental damage, but along cohesive-sediment stream banks of disturbed catchments in southeastern Minnesota, short-duration grazing (SDG), a rotational grazing system, may offer a better riparian management practice than CG. Over 30 physical and biological metrics were gathered at 26 sites to evaluate differences between SDG, CG, and nongrazed sites (NG). Ordinations produced with nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) indicated a gradient with a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity (IBI) and riparian site management; low IBI scores associated with CG sites and higher IBI scores associated with NG sites. Nongrazed sites were associated with reduced soil compaction and higher bank stability, as measured by the Pfankuch stability index; whereas CG sites were associated with increased soil compaction and lower bank stability, SDG sites were intermediate. Bedrock geology influenced NMS results: sites with carbonate derived cobble were associated with more stable channels and higher IBI scores. Though current riparian grazing practices in southeastern Minnesota present pollution problems, short duration grazing could reduce sediment pollution if managed in an environmentally sustainable fashion that considers stream channel response. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Environmental Management↗

Characterization and statistical modeling of bacterial (Escherichia coli) outflows from watersheds that discharge into Southern Lake Michigan

Two watersheds in northwestern Indiana were selected for detailed monitoring of bacterially contaminated discharges (Escherichia coli) into Lake Michigan. A large watershed that drains an urbanized area with treatment plants that release raw sewage during storms discharges into Lake Michigan at the outlet of Burns Ditch. A small watershed drains part of the Great Marsh, a wetland complex that has been disrupted by ditching and limited residential development, at the outlet of Derby Ditch. Monitoring at the outlet of Burns Ditch in 1999 and 2000 indicated that E. coli concentrations vary over two orders of magnitude during storms. During one storm, sewage overflows caused concentrations to increase to more than 10,000 cfu/100 mL for several hours. Monitoring at Derby Ditch from 1997 to 2000 also indicated that E. coli concentrations increase during storms with the highest concentrations generally occurring during rising streamflow. Multiple regression analysis indicated that 60% of the variability in measured outflows of E. coli from Derby Ditch (n = 88) could be accounted for by a model that utilizes continuously measured rainfall, stream discharge, soil temperature and depth to water table in the Great Marsh. A similar analysis indicated that 90% of the variability in measured E. coli concentrations at the outlet of Burns Ditch (n = 43) during storms could be accounted for by a combination of continuously measured water-quality variables including nitrate and ammonium. These models, which utilize data that can be collected on a real-time basis, could form part of an Early Warning System for predicting beach closures.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO 2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO 2 , precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO 2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO 2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ∼ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO 2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha −1 in nitrate yield relative to the watershed with a lower percent of croplands as a result of increased export of nitrate derived from fertilizer. The watershed dominated by poorly drained soils showed increased nitrate removal due do enhanced denitrification compared to the watershed dominated by well-drained soils. Our findings suggest that increased implementation of conservation practices would be necessary for this region to mitigate increased nitrate loads associated with predicted changes in future climate.

Greensboro Watershed, Tuckahoe Creek Watershed↗

Pesticides in stream sediment and aquatic biota: distribution, trends, and governing factors

More than 20 years after the ban of DDT and other organochlorine pesticides, pesticides continue to be detected in air, rain, soil, surface water, bed sediment, and aquatic and terrestrial biota throughout the world. Recent research suggests that low levels of some of these pesticides may have the potential to affect the development, reproduction, and behavior of fish and wildlife, and possibly humans. Pesticides in Stream Sediment and Aquatic Biota: Distribution, Trends, and Governing Factors assesses the occurrence and behavior of pesticides in bed sediment and aquatic biota-the two major compartments of the hydrologic system where organochlorine pesticides are most likely to accumulate. This book collects, for the first time, results from several hundred monitoring studies and field experiments, ranging in scope from individual sites to the entire nation. Comprehensive tables provide concise summaries of study locations, pesticides analyzed, and study outcomes. Comprehensive and extensively illustrated, Pesticides in Stream Sediment and Aquatic Biota: Distribution, Trends, and Governing Factors evaluates the sources, environmental fate, geographic distribution, and long-term trends of pesticides in bed sediment and aquatic biota. The book focuses on organochlorine pesticides, but also assesses the potential for currently used pesticides to be found in bed sediment and aquatic biota. Topics covered in depth include the effect of land use on pesticide occurrence, mechanisms of pesticide uptake and accumulation by aquatic biota, and the environmental significance of observed levels of pesticides in stream sediment and aquatic biota.

Book↗

Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: Application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA

Probabilistic models to inform landslide early warning systems often rely on rainfall totals observed during past events with landslides. However, these models are generally developed for broad regions using large catalogs, with dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of landslide occurrences. This study evaluates strategies for training landslide forecasting models with a scanty record of landslide-triggering events, which is a typical limitation in remote, sparsely populated regions. We evaluate 136 statistical models trained on a precipitation dataset with five landslide-triggering precipitation events recorded near Sitka, Alaska, USA, as well as > 6000 d of non-triggering rainfall (2002–2020). We also conduct extensive statistical evaluation for three primary purposes: (1) to select the best-fitting models, (2) to evaluate performance of the preferred models, and (3) to select and evaluate warning thresholds. We use Akaike, Bayesian, and leave-one-out information criteria to compare the 136 models, which are trained on different cumulative precipitation variables at time intervals ranging from 1 h to 2 weeks, using both frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the daily probability and intensity of potential landslide occurrence (logistic regression and Poisson regression). We evaluate the best-fit models using leave-one-out validation as well as by testing a subset of the data. Despite this sparse landslide inventory, we find that probabilistic models can effectively distinguish days with landslides from days without slide activity. Our statistical analyses show that 3 h precipitation totals are the best predictor of elevated landslide hazard, and adding antecedent precipitation (days to weeks) did not improve model performance. This relatively short timescale of precipitation combined with the limited role of antecedent conditions likely reflects the rapid draining of porous colluvial soils on the very steep hillslopes around Sitka. Although frequentist and Bayesian inferences produce similar estimates of landslide hazard, they do have different implications for use and interpretation: frequentist models are familiar and easy to implement, but Bayesian models capture the rare-events problem more explicitly and allow for better understanding of parameter uncertainty given the available data. We use the resulting estimates of daily landslide probability to establish two decision boundaries that define three levels of warning. With these decision boundaries, the frequentist logistic regression model incorporates National Weather Service quantitative precipitation forecasts into a real-time landslide early warning “dashboard” system ( https://sitkalandslide.org/ , last access: 9 October 2023). This dashboard provides accessible and data-driven situational awareness for community members and emergency managers.

Alaska↗

Hillslope hydrology in global change research and earth system modeling

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid‐level water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the one‐dimensional (1‐D), 2‐ to 3‐m deep, and free‐draining soil hydrology in most ESM land models, we hypothesize that 3‐D, lateral ridge‐to‐valley flow through shallow and deep paths and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes are the top two globally quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We hypothesize that these two processes are likely to impact ESM predictions where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that, if implemented in ESM land models, these processes will increase simulated continental water storage and residence time, buffering terrestrial ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited knowledge of the subsurface, where water is stored (supporting vegetation) and released to stream baseflow (supporting aquatic ecosystems). We conclude with a set of organizing hypotheses and a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions.

Water Resources Research↗

The natural capital accounting opportunity: Let's really do the numbers

The nation’s economic accounts provide objective, regular, and standardized information routinely relied upon by public and private decision makers. But they are incomplete. The U.S. and many other nations currently do not account for the natural capital — such as the wildlife, forests, grasslands, soils, and water bodies—upon which all other economic activity rests. By creating formal natural capital accounts (NCA) and ecosystem goods and services (EGS) accounts, governments and businesses can better understand the past, peer into the future, innovate, conserve, and plan for environmental shocks. They would standardize, regularly repeat, and aggregate diverse natural resource, environmental, and social and economic data and could thereby play a significant role in advancing the science of coupled biophysical and social systems.

BioScience↗

Hydrology of area 25, Eastern Region, Interior Coal Province, Illinois

The eastern region of the Interior Coal Province has been divided into 11 hydrologic study areas. Area 25, located in west-central Illinois, includes the Spoon River and small tributaries to the Illinois River. Pennsylvanian age rocks underlie most of the study area. Illinois, with the largest reserves of bituminous coal, is second only to Montana in total coal reserves. Loess soils cover most of the study area. Agriculture is the dominant land use. Surface water provides 97% of all the water used. Precipitation averages 34 to 35 inches. Water-quality data has been collected at over 31 sites. Analysis for specific conductance, pH, alkalinity, iron, manganese, sulfate and many trace elements and other water-quality constituents have been completed. These data are available from computer storage through the National Water Data Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE). (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Calibration procedure for a daily flow model of small watersheds with snowmelt runoff in the Green River coal region of Colorado

A calibration procedure was developed for the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System for watersheds in which snowmelt is the major contributor to runoff. The model uses daily values of air temperature and precipitation as input and the output is mean daily discharge. The procedure appears sufficient to calibrate both streamflow volume and the timing of mean daily discharge if other model parameters are reasonably estimated. Model structure and sensitivity analysis suggest that one of the most important parameters is the available water-holding capacity of the soil (SMAX). Changing this parameter through a series of iterations, the calibration procedure minimizes the error between observed and predicted annual discharge. The calibration suggests that the single parameter SMAX may be sufficient for optimizing both the volumes and the timing of runoff, assuming other model parameters are adequately estimated. Additional optimization on parameters sensitive to timing does not appear to improve prediction. This indicates that these parameters were estimated accurately prior to calibration. Further investigation is needed on more watersheds to determine SMAX 's ability to calibrate volume and timing with a constant set of other model parameter values.

Colorado↗

Developing hydro-meteorological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and early warning

Consistent relations between shallow landslide initiation and associated rainfall characteristics remain difficult to identify, due largely to the complex hydrological and geological processes causing slopes to be predisposed to failure and those processes that subsequently trigger failures. Considering the importance of hillslope hydrology for rainfall-induced landsliding, we develop and test a method for identifying hybrid hydro-meteorological thresholds to assess landslide initiation potential. We outline a series of steps for using a landslide inventory in combination with triggering rainfall and antecedent wetness to identify empirical thresholds that can inform landslide early warning systems. The method is semi-automated but remains flexible enough to allow threshold developers to consider data inputs and various performance metrics with different priorities for balancing failed versus false alarms. We demonstrate the utility of our approach for two monitoring sites near Seattle, Washington and in Portland, Oregon, USA, to develop daily bilinear thresholds within a two-dimensional parameter space, which rely on accurate 24 h forecasts, measured recent rainfall and in situ soil saturation. Although there were no prior landslide thresholds for Portland, our new hybrid threshold for the Seattle area outperforms established rainfall-only thresholds for the same region. Introducing subsurface hydrologic monitoring into landslide initiation thresholds has the potential to greatly improve early warning capabilities and help reduce losses.

Oregon, Washington↗