SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Natural Resource Modelling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,243 records · Page 69Linked to original sources

USGS2024

Fish size structures in lakes of the Lower Mississippi River floodplain

The Lower Mississippi River has a floodplain that includes >1350 perennial lakes carved by shifts in river courses and other hydro-fluvial processes over eons. Notwithstanding their similar provenances, these waterbodies exhibit an immense variety of morphologies and successional stages that illustrate their natural trajectory from aquatic to forested wetlands. A result of this geographical, morphological and temporal diversity is dynamic and varied fish communities. We examined how size structures of fish communities in these floodplain lakes were associated with key in-lake and off-lake environmental drivers. Fish lengths were collected with standardised procedures in a sample of 30 of these lakes to construct a lake-by-length group matrix. Likewise, in-lake and off-lake environmental descriptors were collected to construct a lake-by-covariate matrix. Distance-based linear models were used to assess associations between fish size structure and environmental descriptors. Smaller fish were typically associated with increasing levels of turbidity, chlorophyll- a , phycocyanin and surrounding agriculture. Shallow, hypereutrophic floodplain lakes associated with agricultural landscapes and reduced connectivity experience harsh physicochemical environments. These conditions appeared to hinder the formation of sustained fish communities but may confer a survival advantage to juveniles or small short-lived species. Conversely, larger fish were associated with increasing lake depth, water clarity, connectivity, and extent of surrounding forests-wetlands. Enhanced stability and size structure were observed in communities residing in deeper and clearer lakes, suggesting that these conditions facilitated the development of longer-lived species spanning multiple age groups. The enhanced connectivity that facilitated this increased stability also permitted the presence of larger itinerant species. Size-structure assessments can serve as a valuable ecological and biodiversity indicator in floodplain lakes. Size-structure assessments could supplement and, depending on objectives, even supplant conventional taxonomic analyses, and enhance surveillance of this vast and important natural resource.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennes↗

USGS2022

Factors affecting spatiotemporal variation in survival of endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon outmigrating from the Sacramento River

Among four extant and declining Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) runs in California’s Central Valley, none have declined as precipitously as Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon. In addition to habitat loss, migratory winter-run employ a life history strategy to reside and feed in stopover habitats on their way from freshwaters to the ocean. This life history strategy is widely considered to be a key factor in the continued decline of winter-run. Using acoustic telemetry, we examined conditions that influenced reach-specific movement and survival of outmigrating juveniles during a prolonged, multi-year drought from 2013-2016, followed by one of the wettest years on record in 2017. We modeled how time-varying individual riverine covariates and reach-specific habitat features influenced smolt survival. Model selection favored a model with mean annual flow, intra-annual deviations from the mean flow at the reach scale, reach-specific channel characteristics, and travel time. Mean annual flow had the strongest positive effect on survival. A negative interaction between mean annual flow and intra-annual reach flow indicated that within-year deviations at the reach scale from annual mean flow had larger effects on survival in low flow years. These factors resulted in higher survival in years with pulse flows or high flows. Changes in movement behavior in response to small scale changes in velocity were negatively associated with survival. Covariates of revetment and wooded bank habitat were positively associated with survival but the effect of these fixed habitat features changed depending on whether they were situated in the upper or lower part of the river. Fish exhibited density dependent stopover behavior, with slowed downstream migration in the upper river in the wet years and extending to the lower river in the most critically dry year. This paper contributes two key findings for natural resource managers interested in flow management and targeted habitat restoration. The first is new insight to how the magnitude of pulse flows in dry and wet years affect survival of winter-run. The second is that density dependence influences where stopover habitat is used. Despite this, we identified an area of the river where fish consistently exhibited stopover behavior in all years.

California↗

USGS2019

Growth drivers of Bakken oil well productivity

This paper identifies the drivers of the phenomenal growth in productivity in hydraulically fractured horizontal oil wells producing from the middle member of the Bakken Formation in North Dakota. The data show a strong underlying spatial component and somewhat weaker temporal component. Drivers of the spatial component are favorable reservoir conditions. The temporal component of well productivity growth is driven by increasing the number of fracture treatments and by increasing the volume of proppant and injection fluids used on a per fracture treatment basis. Random Forest, a non-parametric modeling procedure often applied in the context of machine learning, is used to identify the relative importance of geologic and well-completion factors that have driven the growth in Bakken well productivity. The findings of this study suggest that a significant part of the well productivity increases during the period from 2010 to 2015 have been the result of improved well-site selection. For the more recent period, that is from 2015 through 2017, part of the improved well productivity has resulted from substantial increases in the proppant and injection fluids used per stage and per well.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2018

Evaluation of biodiversity data portals based on requirement analysis

In recent years, concern about the misuse of natural resources has been increasing. It is essential to know in detail the biodiversity of an ecosystem to understand and analyze the impact of human activities on nature, as well as to promote the economic growth of a country. To achieve these goals, public and private institutions are aggregating and sharing biological data around the world by means of biodiversity data portals. The main purpose of those portals is to provide a set of tools that help users and institutions catalog, analyze, and publish raw data about different species in a manner that is open and freely available to any interested party. Normally the process of choosing the best software solution is not straightforward. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate a collection of data portals to establish a clear and consistent selection process that analyzes a collection of requirements and research purposes. The proposed approach is based on three strategies: the use of software engineering techniques to identify the desired group of features to be available in the data portal; the application of the Kano Satisfaction Model to score each requirement according to a preset weight of importance; and the use of tree-maps to visualize the requirements based on their implementation priority, to establish a portal deployment road-map. The proposed methodology is broadly applicable to portal analyses for many communities of practice.

Ecological Informatics↗

USGS2010

Habitat suitability and conservation of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley of California

Resource managers often have little information regarding the habitat requirements and distribution of rare species. Factor analysis-based habitat suitability models describe the ecological niche of a species and identify locations where these conditions occur on the landscape using existing occurrence data.We used factor analyses to assess the suitability of habitats for Thamnophis gigas (Giant Gartersnake), a rare, threatened species endemic to the Central Valley of California, USA, and to map the locations of habitat suitable for T. gigas in the Sacramento Valley. Factor analyses indicated that the niche of T. gigas is composed of sites near rice agriculture with low stream densities. Sites with high canal densities and near wetlands also appeared suitable, but results for these variables were sensitive to potential sampling bias. In the Sacramento Valley, suitable habitats occur primarily in the central portion of the valley floor. Based upon the results of the factor analyses, recovery planning for T. gigas will require an on-the-ground assessment of the current distribution and abundance of T. gigas, maintaining the few remaining natural wetlands and the practice of rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, and studying the effects of agricultural practices and land use changes on populations of T. gigas.

California↗

USGS2010

Habitat suitability and conservation of the Giant Gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley of California

Resource managers often have little information regarding the habitat requirements and distribution of rare species. Factor analysis-based habitat suitability models describe the ecological niche of a species and identify locations where these conditions occur on the landscape using existing occurrence data. We used factor analyses to assess the suitability of habitats for Thamnophis gigas (Giant Gartersnake), a rare, threatened species endemic to the Central Valley of California, USA, and to map the locations of habitat suitable for T. gigas in the Sacramento Valley. Factor analyses indicated that the niche of T. gigas is composed of sites near rice agriculture with low stream densities. Sites with high canal densities and near wetlands also appeared suitable, but results for these variables were sensitive to potential sampling bias. In the Sacramento Valley, suitable habitats occur primarily in the central portion of the valley floor. Based upon the results of the factor analyses, recovery planning for T. gigas will require an on-the-ground assessment of the current distribution and abundance of T. gigas, maintaining the few remaining natural wetlands and the practice of rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, and studying the effects of agricultural practices and land use changes on populations of T. gigas. ?? 2010 by the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists.

Copeia↗

USGS1983

Magnitude and frequency of flooding on small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area, west-central Florida

Hydrologic data collected on nine small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida and a method for estimating peak discharges in the study area are described. The watersheds have mixed land use and range in size from 0.34 to 3.45 square miles. Watershed soils, land use, and storm-drainage system data are described. Urban development ranged from a sparsely populated area with open-ditch storm sewers and 19% impervious area to a completely sewered watershed with 61% impervious cover. The U.S. Geological Survey natural-basin and urban-watershed models were calibrated for the nine watersheds using 5-minute interval rainfall data from the Tampa, Florida, National Weather Service rain gage to simulate annual peak discharge for the period 1906-52. A log-Pearson Type III frequency analysis of the simulated annual maximum discharge was used to determine the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood discharges for each watershed. Flood discharges were related in a multiple-linear regression to drainage area, channel slope, detention storage area, and an urban-development factor determined by the extent of curb and gutter street drainage and storm-sewer system. The average standard error for the regional relations ranged from + or - 32 to + or - 42%. (USGS)

Florida↗

USGS2019

Growth and mortality of invasive Flathead Catfish in the tidal James River, Virginia

Invasive species are a major threat to biodiversity of native fishes in North America. In Atlantic coastal rivers of the United States, large catfishes introduced from the Gulf of Mexico drainages have become established and contributed to native species declines. Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris were introduced to the Chesapeake Bay drainage in the 1960s and 1970s in the James and Potomac river systems in the eastern United States. Diet studies have found James River Flathead Catfish function as apex predators and are known to consume at-risk Alosa spp. To limit further range expansion and impacts to native species, resource management agencies need information on population characteristics to support population assessments and management plan development. Thus, we examined temporal trends in growth rates and estimated total instantaneous mortality for tidal James River Flathead Catfish collected by Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries from 1997 to 2015. Parameters of the von Bertalanffy growth model with length-at-age observations pooled across sampling years were estimated as L ∞ = 1,059 mm, k = 0.231/y, and t 0 = 0.55 y. Flathead Catfish growth differed among sampling years, especially for the years 2007 and 2014, which had the largest sample sizes. However, there were no obvious temporal trends in growth trajectories. James River Flathead Catfish tend to grow much faster than most populations used in development of the relative growth index, but the species is known to grow faster in its nonnative range. Consequently, scientists and managers should use caution when applying growth indices if native and nonnative populations are not expressly considered in development of the index. We estimated total instantaneous mortality as Z = 0.50 and mean natural mortality from six estimators as M = 0.30. A lack of older individuals in the population means that mortality rates may be overestimated as a result of gear selectivity or ongoing maturation of the population. These data provide information to support future work examining the species in the James River and development of population models to evaluate management strategies and management plans.

Virginia↗

USGS2020

Introduction to resource allocation

With ongoing habitat loss and degradation, ever-increasing threats to biodiversity, and limited funding for conservation and management, nearly every natural resource manager routinely faces difficult resource allocation problems. Funding and capacity for natural resource management rarely meet the need, and informed resource allocations are increasingly important. These decision problems include not only habitat and species management but also a wide variety of administrative decisions. Ranking projects or plans by benefit-cost ratio is an intuitive, heuristic approach to resource allocation but may be inefficient. We present a general resource allocation framework in which these decision problems can be stated mathematically, making it relatively easy to find solutions using mathematical programming such as linear programming. amenable to Linear programming and other constrained optimization routines, which can be implemented in common software applications and used with a wide variety of decision problems, including project prioritization and portfolio decisions. Constrained optimization has advantages over intuitive benefit-cost ratios and can accommodate single and multiple objective problems. We also introduce the three case studies in this section illustrating a variety of resource allocation problems: the first case study shows how to select cost-effective management actions for discrete management units such as wetlands or grassland patches; the second, how to use a patch dynamics model to allocation allocate resources for a reserve network that protects habitat for multiple species of conservation concern; and the third, how to use stochastic simulation to determine allocation of resources in space and time for invasive species management.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

A desert tortoise-common raven viable conflict threshold

Since 1966, common raven ( Corvus corax ; raven) abundance has increased throughout much of this species’ Holarctic distribution, fueled by an ever-expanding supply of anthropogenic resource subsidies (e.g., water, food, shelter, and nesting substrate) to ecoregion specific raven population carrying capacities. Consequently, ravens are implicated in declines of both avian and reptilian species of conservation concern, including the California (USA) endangered and federally threatened Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ; desert tortoise). While ravens are a natural predator of desert tortoises, the inter-generational stability of desert tortoise populations is expected to be compromised as annual juvenile survival is suppressed below 0.77 through a combination of raven depredation and other sources of mortality. To estimate the extent to which raven depredation suppresses desert tortoise recruitment within the Mojave Desert of California, we collected data from 274 variable-radius point counts, 78 desert tortoise decoy stations, and 8 control stations during the spring of 2020. Additionally, we complied a geodatabase of previously active raven nests, observed between 2013 and 2020. Raven density estimates from 4 monitoring areas ranged between 0.63 (eastern most) and 2.44 (western most) raven km -2 (95% CI: 0.35–1.14 and 1.33–4.48, respectively). We used a Bayesian shared frailty model to estimate the effects of raven density and distance to the nearest previously active raven nest on the annual “survival” of juvenile desert tortoise decoys (75-mm Midline Carapace Length), which we then converted into survival estimates for 0- to 10-year-old desert tortoises by adjusting exposure to reflect natural activity patterns. At the 1.72-km median distance from the nearest previously active raven nest, the estimated annual survival of desert tortoises decreased as raven density increased, ranging among conservation areas from 0.774 (eastern most) to 0.733 (western most). Accordingly, our model predicts that desert tortoise populations exposed to raven densities in excess of 0.89 raven km -2 , at a distance

California↗

USGS2012

Groundwater quality in the Columbia Plateau, Snake River Plain, and Oahu basaltic-rock and basin-fill aquifers in the Northwestern United States and Hawaii, 1992-2010

This assessment of groundwater-quality conditions of the Columbia Plateau, Snake River Plain, and Oahu for the period 1992–2010 is part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. It shows where, when, why, and how specific water-quality conditions occur in groundwater of the three study areas and yields science-based implications for assessing and managing the quality of these water resources. The primary aquifers in the Columbia Plateau, Snake River Plain, and Oahu are mostly composed of fractured basalt, which makes their hydrology and geochemistry similar. In spite of the hydrogeologic similarities, there are climatic differences that affect the agricultural practices overlying the aquifers, which in turn affect the groundwater quality. Understanding groundwater-quality conditions and the natural and human factors that control groundwater quality is important because of the implications to human health, the sustainability of rural agricultural economies, and the substantial costs associated with land and water management, conservation, and regulation. The principal regional aquifers of the Columbia Plateau, Snake River Plain, and Oahu are highly vulnerable to contamination by chemicals applied at the land surface; essentially, they are as vulnerable as many shallow surficial aquifers elsewhere. The permeable and largely unconfined character of principal aquifers in the Columbia Plateau, Snake River Plain, and Oahu allow water and chemicals to infiltrate to the water table despite depths to water commonly in the hundreds of feet. The aquifers are essentially unconfined over large areas, having few extensive clay layers to impede infiltration through permeable volcanic rock and alluvial sediments. Agriculture is intensive in all three study areas, and heavy irrigation has imposed large artificial flows of irrigation recharge that rival or exceed natural recharge rates. Fertilizers and pesticides applied at land surface are leached from soil and transported to deep water tables with the infiltrating irrigation recharge, resulting in a layer of degraded water quality overlying better quality regional groundwater beneath. This “irrigation-recharge layer” is best known on Oahu, where it has been studied since the 1960s; however, the extent of nitrate and pesticide contamination in the Columbia Plateau and Snake River Plain indicate that the same situation exists in those areas. Contamination from agricultural and urban activities is present not only at shallow depths in surficial materials of the three areas, but extends regionally in the deep, principal bedrock aquifers that are tapped for drinking water by domestic and public-supply wells. Naturally occurring constituents and nitrate concentrations above human-health benchmarks—Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs), and Health-Based Screening Levels (HBSLs)—were more common in the Columbia Plateau and the Snake River Plain than in Oahu. Concentrations of anthropogenic constituents (constituents related to human activities) above human-health benchmarks were more common in Oahu. Naturally occurring contaminants, such as arsenic and radon, may be present in groundwater at concentrations of potential concern for human health in relatively undeveloped settings that otherwise may not be perceived as susceptible to contamination. Even though the median depth to groundwater in Oahu is more than 300 feet, the common occurrence of anthropogenic compounds in groundwater indicates that Oahu has a high susceptibility to contamination. Nitrate concentrations in groundwater were above the national background concentrations of 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in all three study areas. In the Columbia Plateau, nitrate exceeded the human-health benchmark of 10 mg/L in 20 percent of the wells sampled. In the Snake River Plain, nitrate exceeded the human-health benchmark of 10 mg/L in 3 percent of the wells sampled. Nitrate can persist in groundwater for years and even decades in the oxygen-rich groundwater of the Columbia Plateau and the Snake River Plain, so prudent groundwater protection measures are critical to protect drinking water resources by reducing nitrate leaching from the land surface. Nitrate logistic regression models indicated that areas with a high percentage of land in crops (such as potatoes or sugarcane) and soils with low amounts of organic matter are most likely to have elevated nitrate concentrations in the groundwater. Areas where agricultural activities were absent had much lower probabilities of detecting elevated nitrate concentrations. The Columbia Plateau had a much higher probability of having elevated nitrate concentrations, with most of the land area having greater than a 50 percent probability of elevated nitrate concentrations. Oahu and the Snake River Plain had a much lower probability of having elevated nitrate concentrations because of their lower percentage of agricultural land. Pesticides were detected at many sites in groundwater of the Columbia Plateau, Snake River Plain, and Oahu but generally at low concentrations below human-health benchmarks. Atrazine and its degradate (a compound produced from the breakdown of a parent pesticide), deethylatrazine, were the most commonly detected pesticides in groundwater sampled in the Columbia Plateau and Snake River Plain. Bromacil was the most commonly detected pesticide on Oahu. The other pesticides most commonly detected in the study areas include simazine, hexazinone, metribuzin, diuron, prometon, metolachlor, p,p’ -DDE, dieldrin, 2-4-D, and alachlor. DDE (a degradate of DDT) and dieldrin are still being detected in groundwater despite having been banned for more than 30 years. Codetection of multiple pesticides in water from a single well was common. The widespread occurrence of pesticides in groundwater in the study areas indicates that the groundwater is highly susceptible to pesticide contamination. Some pesticides were detected in groundwater samples from all three study areas, but other pesticides were detected only in samples from Oahu, or only in samples from the Columbia Plateau and Snake River Plain. This is because some pesticides (such as atrazine) are broad-spectrum pesticides that are used on many crops in many different areas of the United States. Other pesticides (such as simazine, metribuzin, and metolachlor) are used on row crops (such as potatoes, barley, and alfalfa) grown in the Columbia Plateau and Snake River Plain, but not on pineapple or sugarcane grown in Oahu. Atrazine logistic-regression models indicate that areas with a high percentage of land in crops (such as potatoes or sugarcane), a low percentage of fallow land, and highly permeable soils with low amounts of organic matter are most likely to have atrazine detected in the groundwater. Areas where agricultural activities were absent had much lower probabilities of atrazine being detected. The Snake River Plain had a much higher probability of atrazine detections, with more than 50 percent of the land area having greater than a 50 percent probability of atrazine contamination. Oahu had a much lower probability of atrazine contamination, with only 24 percent of the land area having greater than a 50 percent probability of atrazine contamination. Oahu and the Columbia Plateau had some of the highest percentages of soil fumigant detections in groundwater in the United States. Soil fumigants are volatile organic compounds (VOCs) used as pesticides, which are applied to soils to reduce populations of plant parasitic nematodes (harmful rootworms), weeds, fungal pathogens, and other soil-borne microorganisms. They are used in Oahu and the Columbia Plateau on crops such as pineapple and potatoes. All three areas (Columbia Plateau, Snake River Plain, and Oahu) had fumigant concentrations exceeding human-health benchmarks for drinking water.

Hawai'i, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, ↗

USGS2013

Simulation of the shallow groundwater-flow system in the Forest County Potawatomi Community, Forest County, Wisconsin

The shallow groundwater system in the Forest County Potawatomi Comminity, Forest County, Wisconsin, was simulated by expanding and recalibrating a previously calibrated regional model. The existing model was updated using newly collected water-level measurements, inclusion of surface-water features beyond the previous near-field boundary, and refinements to surface-water features. The updated model then was used to calculate the area contributing recharge for seven existing and three proposed pumping locations on lands of the Forest County Potawatomi Community. The existing wells were the subject of a 2004 source-water evaluation in which areas contributing recharge were calculated using the fixed-radius method. The motivation for the present (2012) project was to improve the level of detail of areas contributing recharge for the existing wells and to provide similar analysis for the proposed wells. Delineated 5- and 10-year areas contributing recharge for existing and proposed wells extend from the areas of pumping to delineate the area at the surface contributing recharge to the wells. Steady-state pumping was simulated for two scenarios: a base-pumping scenario using pumping rates that reflect what the Community currently (2012) pumps (or plans to in the case of proposed wells), and a high-pumping scenario in which the rate was set to the maximum expected from wells installed in this area, according to the Forest County Potawatomi Community Natural Resources Department. In general, the 10-year areas contributing recharge did not intersect surface-water bodies. The 5- and 10-year areas contributing recharge simulated at the maximum pumping rate at Bug Lake Road may intersect Bug Lake. At the casino near the Town of Carter, Wisconsin, the 10-year areas contributing recharge intersect infiltration ponds. At the Devils Lake and Lois Crow Drive wells, areas contributing recharge are near cultural features, including residences.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1988

Recharge to the Eagle Valley ground-water basin by streamflow in Vicee Canyon, west-central Nevada

Recharge to groundwater could be increased by adding imported water to natural surface water flow in Vicee Canyon, in Eagle Valley, Nevada, where municipal pumping has caused as much as 50 ft of water level decline since 1972. Measurements of infiltration rates, percolation rates, and hydraulic conductivity indicate that the area could be conducive to artificial recharge from infiltration of augmented streamflow. Runoff creates natural infiltration beds on the floor of Vicee Canyon, but baseflow causes channelization and armoring of the stream channel, reducing infiltration rates from about 4 inches to 1 inch/hour. A water balance of the streamflow in Vicee Canyon indicates that 60 to 70% becomes recharge, and the remainder is lost to evaporation from a nearby gravel pit and evapotranspiration on the canyon floor. Estimates of recharge from measurements in the unsaturated and saturated zones account for about 45% of the total streamflow. Application of a groundwater flow model indicates that at present pumping rates, water levels below Vicee Canyon and at a nearby municipal well may rise about 15-30 ft after 5 years as a result of about 1 cu ft/sec of augmented streamflow infiltration. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Gulf of Mexico Integrated Science - Tampa Bay Study: Examining the Impact of Urbanization on Seafloor Habitats

Seafloor habitats, such as seagrass beds, provide essential habitat for fish and marine mammals. For many years, the study of seagrass vitality has been a priority for scientists and resource managers working in Tampa Bay. Seafloor habitats are extremely sensitive to changes in water quality. Like a canary in a coal mine, seagrass can serve as an ecological indicator of estuary health. Between the 1940s and the 1970s, seagrass gradually died in Tampa Bay. This loss has been attributed to a rise in urbanization and an increase in nutrient loading into the bay. Better treatment of industrial wastewater and runoff beginning in the 1980s resulted in the continuous recovery of seagrass beds. However, in the mid-1990s, the recovery began to level off in areas where good water quality was expected to support continued seagrass recovery, demonstrating that nutrient loading may be only one factor impacting seagrass health. Researchers now are trying to determine what might be affecting the recovery of seagrass in these areas. Currently, little is understood about the effects that other aspects of urbanization and natural change, such as groundwater and sediment quality, might have on seagrass vitality. This segment of the Tampa Bay integrated science study is intended to identify, quantify, and develop models that illustrate the impact that urbanization may have on seafloor habitat distribution, health, and restoration.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2001

Solute transport along preferential flow paths in unsaturated fractures

Laboratory experiments were conducted to study solute transport along preferential flow paths in unsaturated, inclined fractures. Qualitative aspects of solute transport were identified in a miscible dye tracer experiment conducted in a transparent replica of a natural granite fracture. Additional experiments were conducted to measure the breakthrough curves of a conservative tracer introduced into an established preferential flow path in two different fracture replicas and a rock‐replica combination. The influence of gravity was investigated by varying fracture inclination. The relationship between the travel times of the solute and the relative influence of gravity was substantially affected by two modes of intermittent flow that occurred: the snapping rivulet and the pulsating blob modes. The measured travel times of the solute were evaluated with three transfer function models: the axial dispersion, the reactors‐in‐series, and the lognormal models. The three models described the solute travel times nearly equally well. A mechanistic model was also formulated to describe transport when the pulsating blob mode occurred which assumed blobs of water containing solute mixed with residual pools of water along the flow path.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2011

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2013

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2015

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicated by uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic process for evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilience and conserve ecosystem services. This is particularly true in coastal areas where human populations and landscape conversion are increasing, and where intensifying storms and sea-level rise pose unprecedented threats to coastal ecosystems. We applied collaborative decision analysis with a diverse team of stakeholders who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes across the San Francisco Bay estuary, California, USA, as a case study. Specifically, we followed a structured decision-making approach, and we using expert judgment developed alternative management strategies to increase the capacity and adaptability to manage tidal marsh resilience while considering uncertainties through 2050. Because sea-level rise projections are relatively confident to 2050, we focused on uncertainties regarding intensity and frequency of storms and funding. Elicitation methods allowed us to make predictions in the absence of fully compatible models and to assess short- and long-term trade-offs. Specifically we addressed two questions. (1) Can collaborative decision analysis lead to consensus among a diverse set of decision makers responsible for environmental stewardship and faced with uncertainties about climate change, funding, and stakeholder values? (2) What is an optimal strategy for the conservation of tidal marshes, and what strategy is robust to the aforementioned uncertainties? We found that when taking this approach, consensus was reached among the stakeholders about the best management strategies to maintain tidal marsh integrity. A Bayesian decision network revealed that a strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

California↗