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At least 1,243 records · Page 69Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment. Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression. Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect. Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond. Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2025

Metabarcoding analysis of arthropod pollinator diversity: A methodological comparison of eDNA derived from flowers and DNA derived from bulk samples of insects

Limitations of traditional insect sampling methods have motivated the development and optimisation of new non-lethal methods capable of quantifying diverse arthropod communities. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding using arthropod-specific primers has recently been investigated as a novel way to characterise arthropod communities from the DNA they deposit on the surface of plants. This sampling method has had demonstrated success, but pollinators—especially bees—are oddly underrepresented in these studies. To evaluate this inconsistency, we investigated the limitations of eDNA metabarcoding for bees and other pollinators. We compared pollinator diversity derived from eDNA extracted from flowers and DNA extracted from pulverised bulk samples of insects collected from vane traps deployed at the same sites using three metabarcoding primers, two of which target arthropods generally (COI-Jusino and 16S-Marquina) and one that targets bumblebees ( Bombus spp., COI-Milam). Across methods, we detected 77 insect families from 9 orders. The COI-Jusino marker amplified the highest taxonomic diversity compared to 16S-Marquina and COI-Milam. More amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were recovered from vane traps (blue: 1357, yellow: 1542) than flowers (245), but only 23% of families and 13% of genera were shared among methods, indicating that flowers and blue and yellow vane traps may each sample different parts of the available arthropod community. Of 29 flower samples with known bee visitations, only 10 samples had bee detections from eDNA, and incomplete reference databases hindered assignment to species. Although our study provides additional evidence for the usefulness of eDNA metabarcoding for characterising arthropod communities, significant challenges remain when using eDNA metabarcoding methods to identify and quantify pollinator communities, especially bees.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS1981

Use of captive starlings to determine effects of pollutants on passerine reproduction

Three reproductive trials were conducted to develop techniques for propagation of captive starlings (Stumus vulgaris) which could determine the effects of environmental contaminants on passerine reproduction. Trials were conducted during the spring of 1979 in five adjacent 2.4 by 3 by 12-m outdoor wire pens containing four or ten pairs of starlings, a similar number of nest boxes, perches, water, commercial turkey starter, and alfalfa hay as nesting material. Nestling diets consisted of combinations of Nebraska Brand bird of prey diet, live or frozen mealworms (Tenebrio molitor) and crickets (Acheta domestica), or live earthworms (Pheretima sp.). Starlings reproduced successfully when the number of breeding pairs per pen was reduced from ten to four. The average clutch sizes for each pen (4.3 to 4.9) were similar to those reported for wild starlings. Hatching (60 to 90.4 percent) and fledging (0 to 100 percent) success varied among pens. The fledging success was greatest in the pens which received the most diverse nestling diets: Nebraska Brand diet plus frozen or live mealworms and crickets. Whether the insects were presented alive or frozen appeared to have little effect on the reproductive success. The starlings did not consume or carry earthworms to their young. The body weights of 20-day-old nestlings raised in captivity (X=73.9 g) were similar to those of starlings in the wild. The use of single pairs per pen may eliminate problems in presentation of nestling diets due to asynchrony in breeding between pairs and excessive interactions among individuals, which may interfere with parental care. The starling appears to be an excellent model for examining the effects of environmental contaminants on the reproduction of songbirds in captivity.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Variation in annual clutch phenology of desert tortoises (Gopherus morafkai) in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona

The phenology of egg production and oviposition in organisms affects survival and development of neonates and thus, both offspring and maternal fitness. In addition, in organisms with environmental sex determination, clutch phenology can affect hatchling sex ratios with attendant effects on population demography. The rapid rate of contemporary climate change might disrupt reproductive phenologies that evolved to match environmental conditions. To better understand the response of clutch phenology to annual and long-term changes in climate, we studied a population of Sonoran Desert Tortoises ( Gopherus morafkai ) in Arizona in 1993 and 1997–2005, specifically quantifying three phenophases, including (1) the estimated time of appearance of shelled eggs in females, (2) the estimated time that eggs were last visible in X-radiographs, and (3) the duration of the interval between the first two events. The mean date for appearance of shelled eggs was 6 June, and the mean date they were last visible was 26 June. After controlling for individual female effects, these dates were different among years. The total number of days that eggs were visible across all females within a year differed among years, but the mean duration of time that clutches were visible, after controlling for individual female effects, was similar among years. Three of 18 females exhibited interannual egg retention on 5 occasions from 52 clutches. Although G. morafkai ovulates only one clutch per year, they might oviposit up to two because of interannual egg retention. Most females produced shelled eggs through heat-unit accumulation achieving 8.3 degree days within a 14-d moving average. The ability to vary the timing of egg formation and oviposition might buffer G. morafkai from some of the effects of predicted increases in temperatures, but species-specific information on developmental temperatures and nesting behavior are needed to determine whether or not the species will be able to produce viable clutches of mixed sex ratios in a warmer climate.

Arizona↗

USGS2006

A database of lotic invertebrate traits for North America

The assessment and study of stream communities may be enhanced if functional characteristics such as life-history, habitat preference, and reproductive strategy were more widely available for specific taxa. Species traits can be used to develop these functional indicators because many traits directly link functional roles of organisms with controlling environmental factors (for example, flow, substratum, temperature). In addition, some functional traits may not be constrained by taxonomy and are thus applicable at multiple spatial scales. Unfortunately, a comprehensive summary of traits for North American invertebrate taxa does not exist. Consequently, the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program in cooperation with Colorado State University compiled a database of traits for North American invertebrates. A total of 14,127 records for over 2,200 species, 1,165 genera, and 249 families have been entered into the database from 967 publications, texts and reports. Quality-assurance procedures indicated error rates of less than 3 percent in the data entry process. Species trait information was most complete for insect taxa. Traits describing resource acquisition and habitat preferences were most frequently reported, whereas those describing physiological tolerances and reproductive biology were the least frequently reported in the literature. The database is not exhaustive of the literature for North American invertebrates and is biased towards aquatic insects, but it represents a first attempt to compile traits in a web-accessible database. This report describes the database and discusses important decisions necessary for identifying ecologically relevant, environmentally sensitive, non-redundant, and statistically tractable traits for use in bioassessment programs.

Data Series↗

USGS2006

Relations of Water Quality to Streamflow, Season, and Land Use for Four Tributaries to the Toms River, Ocean County, New Jersey, 1994-99

The effects of nonpoint-source contamination on the water quality of four tributaries to the Toms River in Ocean County, New Jersey, have been investigated in a 5-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP). The purpose of the study was to relate the extent of land development to loads of nutrients and other contaminants to these streams, and ultimately to Barnegat Bay. Volumetric streamflow (discharge) was measured at 6 monitoring sites during 37 stormflow and base-flow sampling events over a 5-year period (May 1994-September 1999). Concentrations and yields (area-normalized instantaneous load values) of nitrogen and phosphorus species, total suspended solids, and fecal coliform bacteria were quantified, and pH, dissolved oxygen, and stream stage were monitored during base-flow conditions and storms. Sufficient data were collected to allow for a statistical evaluation of differences in water quality among streams in subbasins with high, medium, and low levels of land development. Long Swamp Creek, in a highly developed subbasin (64.2 percent developed); Wrangle Brook, in a moderately developed subbasin (34.5 percent); Davenport Branch, in a slightly developed subbasin (22.8 percent); and Jakes Branch, in an undeveloped subbasin (0 percent) are the subbasins selected for this study. No point-source discharges are known to be present on these streams. Water samples were collected and analyzed by the NJDEP, and discharge measurements and data analysis were conducted by the USGS. Total nitrogen concentrations were lower in Davenport Branch than in Long Swamp Creek and Wrangle Brook during base flow and stormflow. Concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate were highest in Wrangle Brook (as high as 3.0 mg/L and 1.6 mg/L, respectively) as a result of high concentrations of nitrate in samples collected during base flow; nitrate loading from ground-water discharge is much higher in Wrangle Brook than in any of the other streams, possibly as a result of an experimental wastewater-(secondary effluent) disposal site that was in operation during the 1980's. Ammonia concentrations were higher in samples from Long Swamp Creek than in those from the other two monitoring sites under all flow conditions, and ammonia yields were higher during stormflow than base flow at all monitoring sites. Concentrations and yields of fecal coliform bacteria and total suspended solids were higher during stormflow than during base flow at all monitoring sites. Concentrations and yields were significantly higher in Long Swamp Creek, a highly developed subbasin and Wrangle Brook, a moderately developed subbasin than in Davenport Branch, a slightly developed subbasin. Concentrations and yields of phosphate species, which also are strongly related to stormflow, were higher during stormflow in Long Swamp Creek than in the other subbasins. Base-flow separation techniques were used on hydrographs generated for storms to distinguish the fraction of discharge and constituent loading attributable to storm runoff (overland flow) from the fraction contributed by ground-water discharge. Precipitation records were used to determine the total annual volumes of ground-water discharge and runoff at each monitoring site. These volumes were used in conjunction with water-quality data to calculate total annual loads of each constituent at each monitoring site, separated into ground-water discharge and runoff fractions. It was determined that loads of ammonia, nitrate, organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, and orthophosphate in ground-water discharge were significantly higher in the moderately developed Wrangle Brook subbasin than in the highly developed Long Swamp Creek subbasin, and that no relation was apparent between the percent of land development and constituent loads from ground-water discharge. The loading of each constituent contributed by ground-water discharge is specific

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Hydrology and glacier-lake-outburst floods (1987-2004) and water quality (1998-2003) of the Taku River near Juneau, Alaska

The Taku River Basin originates in British Columbia, Canada, and drains an area of 6,600 square miles at the U.S. Geological Survey's Taku River gaging station. Several mines operated within the basin prior to 1957, and mineral exploration has resumed signaling potential for future mining developments. The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Douglas Indian Association, Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency conducted a water-quality and flood-hydrology study of the Taku River. Water-quality sampling of the Taku River from 1998 through 2003 established a baseline for assessing potential effects of future mining operations on water quality. The annual mean discharge of the Taku River is 13,700 cubic feet per second. The monthly mean discharge ranges from a minimum of 1,940 cubic feet per second in February to a maximum of 34,400 cubic feet per second in June. Nearly 90 percent of the annual discharge is from May through November. The highest spring discharges are sourced primarily from snowmelt and moderate discharges are sustained throughout the summer by glacial meltwaters. An ice cover usually forms over the Taku River in December persisting through the winter into March and occasionally into April. Glacier-lake-outburst floods originating from two glacier-dammed lakes along the margin of the Tulsequah Glacier in British Columbia, Canada, are the source of the greatest peak discharges on the Taku River. The largest flood during the period of record was 128,000 cubic feet per second on June 25, 2004, resulting from an outburst of Lake No Lake. Lake No Lake is the larger of the two lakes. The outburst-flood contribution to peak discharge was 80,000 cubic feet per second. The volume discharged from Lake No Lake is relatively consistent indicating drainage may be triggered when the lake reaches a critical stage. This suggests prediction of the timing of these outburst floods might be possible if lake-stage data were available. Further increases in the volume of Lake No Lake are unlikely as all tributary glaciers have retreated out of the lake basin. Decreasing outburst-flood volumes from Tulsequah Lake suggests a continued decline in the volume of this lake. Physical and chemical parameters and concentrations of basic water-quality constituents indicate good water quality. Samples collected at the Taku River gaging station contained low concentrations of trace elements in the dissolved phase. Trace elements sampled were within acceptable limits when compared with the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation aquatic-life criteria for fresh waters. The highest concentrations of total trace elements sampled were collected during glacial-outburst floods and likely are associated with suspended sediments. Total trace-element concentrations generally increase with increasing water discharge, although a high correlation for all constituents sampled does not always exist.

Alaska↗

USGS2008

Geohydrology of the Unconsolidated Valley-Fill Aquifer in the Meads Creek Valley, Schuyler and Steuben Counties, New York

The Meads Creek valley encompasses 70 square miles of predominantly forested uplands in the upper Susquehanna River drainage basin. The valley, which was listed as a Priority Waterbody by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in 2004, is prone to periodic flooding, mostly in its downstream end, where development is occurring most rapidly. Hydraulic characteristics of the unconsolidated valley-fill aquifer were evaluated, and seepage rates in losing and gaining tributaries were calculated or estimated, in an effort to delineate the aquifer geometry and identify the factors that contribute to flooding. Results indicated that (1) Meads Creek gained about 61 cubic feet of flow per second (about 6.0 cubic feet per second per mile of stream channel) from ground-water discharge and inflow from tributaries in its 10.2-mile reach between the northernmost and southernmost measurement sites; (2) major tributaries in the northern part of the valley are not significant sources of recharge to the aquifer; and (3) major tributaries in the central and southern part of the valley provide recharge to the aquifer. The ground-water portion of streamflow in Meads Creek (excluding tributary inflow) was 11.3 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) in the central part of the valley and 17.2 ft3/s in the southern part - a total of 28.5 ft3/s. Ground-water levels were measured in 29 wells finished in unconfined deposits for construction of a potentiometric-surface map to depict directions of ground-water flow within the valley. In general, ground water flows from the edges of the valley toward Meads Creek and ultimately discharges to it. The horizontal hydraulic gradient for the entire 12-mile-long aquifer averages about 30 feet per mile, whereas the gradient in the southern fourth of the valley averages about half that - about 17 feet per mile. A water budget for the aquifer indicated that 28 percent of recharge was derived from precipitation that falls on the aquifer, 32 percent was from losing reaches of tributaries, 38 percent was unchanneled flow from hillsides that slope toward the valley (this estimate includes runoff and shallow ground-water inflow from till and bedrock), and the remaining 2 percent was from deep ground-water inflow from till and bedrock to the sides and bottom of the aquifer. Nearly all (94 percent) of the water discharged from the aquifer is equivalent to the streamflow gain in Meads Creek; the remaining 6 percent discharges as deep outflow to unconsolidated deposits in the Cohocton River valley. Several characteristics of the Meads Creek valley may contribute to flooding in the downstream area: (1) the southward decrease in the ground-water gradient impedes the ability of the aquifer to transmit water southward and can cause water levels to rise, (2) a high water table, typically only 5 to 10 feet below land surface, results in little storage capacity to absorb water from large storms, (3) a downstream narrowing of the valley impedes the southward flow of ground water and can cause water levels to rapidly rise during periods of prolonged or heavy precipitation, and (4) the upland slopes (till-covered bedrock) produce rapid runoff that recharges the aquifer. The combined effect of these conditions limits the ability of the aquifer to transmit sudden, large increases in recharge from precipitation and thereby provides a high potential for flooding in the southern third of the valley.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Montana StreamStats

About this volume Montana StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ ) application that provides users with access to basin and streamflow characteristics for gaged and ungaged streams in Montana. Montana StreamStats was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Montana Departments of Transportation, Environmental Quality, and Natural Resources and Conservation. The USGS Scientific Investigations Report consists of seven independent but complementary chapters dealing with various aspects of this effort. Chapter A describes the Montana StreamStats application, the basin and streamflow datasets, and provides a brief overview of the streamflow characteristics and regression equations used in the study. Chapters B through E document the datasets, methods, and results of analyses to determine streamflow characteristics, such as peak-flow frequencies, low-flow frequencies, and monthly and annual characteristics, for USGS streamflow-gaging stations in and near Montana. The StreamStats analytical toolsets that allow users to delineate drainage basins and solve regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites in Montana are described in Chapters F and G.

Montana↗

USGS1984

Appraisal of water from surficial-outwash aquifers in Todd County and parts of Cass and Morrison counties, central Minnesota

Outwash deposits consisting of medium to very coarse sand constitute a major aquifer in Todd County and in parts of Cass and Morrison Counties. The outwash ranges in thickness from 0 to 150 feet. Depth to water is generally less than 15 feet, and annual water-level fluctuations are less than 5 feet. Aquifer-test results indicate that transmissivities range from 4,600 to 18,500 feet squared per day and storage coefficients range from 0.10 to 0.25. Yields of more than 2,000 gallons per minute can be obtained locally from properly constructed wells. Average annual precipitation is 25.93 inches, and average annual recharge to the aquifer is estimated to be 8 inches. Base-flow measurements of the Long Prairie River between Long Prairie and Motley during October 1978 and October 1979 indicate average net gains of 0.85 and 1.3 cubic feet per second per river mile. The water is a calcium bicarbonate type and is generally suitable for most uses. However, elevated concentrations of selected chemicals in local areas may require treatment of the water for specialized uses. The water is hard to very hard with dissolved-solids concentrations ranging from about 200 to 400 milligrams per liter. Locally, nitrate concentrations are as much as 6.4 milligrams per liter. Residuals of pesticides are present but do not exceed recommended limits as established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for domestic consumption. Results from numerical modeling experiments indicate that, with proper development, the ground-water system can accommodate additional withdrawals. One experiment indicated that reduction in recharge from 8 to 4 inches annually over 4 years, and anticipated increases in pumping from 2.1 million gallons per day (1978 pumpage) to 7.7 million gallons per day, would cause water levels to decline regionally only about 9 feet and ground-water discharge to streams to decline only about 20 percent.

Minnesota↗

USGS2018

Surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA): a new approach to estimate occurrence in Vulnerable manatee populations

Environmental DNA (eDNA) detection is a technique used to non-invasively detect cryptic, low density, or logistically difficult-to-study species, such as imperiled manatees. For eDNA measurement, genetic material shed into the environment is concentrated from water samples and analyzed for the presence of target species. Cytochrome b quantitative PCR and droplet digital PCR eDNA assays were developed for the 3 Vulnerable manatee species: African, Amazonian, and both subspecies of the West Indian (Florida and Antillean) manatee. Environmental DNA assays can help to delineate manatee habitat ranges, high use areas, and seasonal population changes. To validate the assay, water was analyzed from Florida’s east coast containing a high-density manatee population and produced 31564 DNA molecules l -1 on average and high occurrence (ψ) and detection (p) estimates (ψ = 0.84 [0.40-0.99]; p = 0.99 [0.95-1.00]; limit of detection 3 copies µl -1 ). Similar occupancy estimates were produced in the Florida Panhandle (ψ = 0.79 [0.54-0.97]) and Cuba (ψ = 0.89 [0.54-1.00]), while occupancy estimates in Cameroon were lower (ψ = 0.49 [0.09-0.95]). The eDNA-derived detection estimates were higher than those generated using aerial survey data on the west coast of Florida and may be effective for population monitoring. Subsequent eDNA studies could be particularly useful in locations where manatees are (1) difficult to identify visually (e.g. the Amazon River and Africa), (2) are present in patchy distributions or are on the verge of extinction (e.g. Jamaica, Haiti), and (3) where repatriation efforts are proposed (e.g. Brazil, Guadeloupe). Extension of these eDNA techniques could be applied to other imperiled marine mammal populations such as African and Asian dugongs.

Endangered Species Research↗

USGS2020

Editorial: Contributions of behavior and physiology to conservation biology

Conservation biology is a rapidly evolving discipline, with its synthetic, multidisciplinary framework expanding extensively in recent years. Seemingly disparate disciplines, such as behavior and physiology, are being integrated into this discipline's growing portfolio, resulting in diverse tools that can help develop conservation solutions. Behavior and physiology have traditionally been considered separate fields, yet their integration can provide a more comprehensive approach to developing solutions to conservation and management problems. However, demonstrations are needed of how behavior and physiology—either separately or combined—have contributed to conservation success. Examining species' vulnerabilities to extinction through the lenses of behavior and physiology can provide insight into the mechanisms that drive population declines and extirpations. Our goal is to increase awareness of the benefit of combining behavioral and physiological tools to improve conservation management decisions. Such studies can also help strengthen the basis for evidence-based conservation which, in some cases, has been previously lacking. The diverse studies in our Research Topic illustrate key examples of ways that behavior and physiology can be incorporated into conservation biology. Three main themes emerged from the invited papers with respect to their relevance to conservation: (1) Stress physiology, (2) indicators of health and disease dynamics, (3) and movement ecology. But these themes were also intertwined, thus showing the importance of integrating multiple fields of research to successfully address questions about conservation biology. Two mini reviews discuss the importance of examining how stress physiology may affect individual fitness and capacity to cope with change which, ultimately, affects the resiliency of populations. Walls and Gabor, in their mini review, promoted combining studies of behavior and physiology to aid in developing conservation strategies for amphibians, which could provide conservation managers with workable solutions to global environmental change. Walls and Gabor also pointed out that studies of behavior are useful to understand how native amphibian species respond to invasive predators. This is supported by Roznik et al. who combined physiology and behavior for a more holistic understanding of the impacts of competition between native and invasive frogs. These authors found that invasive Cuban tree frogs outperformed two native species in jump length and speed, offsetting the costs of dehydration. This work also ties in well to a review by Joly, who indicated the importance of exploring movement ecology (on multiple spatial scales) of invasive species to provide insights for invasive species management. Walls and Gabor also emphasized that more studies on phenological shifts of species in response to recent climate change are needed, as explored by Bókony et al. with birds. These authors found that bird species varied their migratory behaviors in response to contemporary climate change which, in turn, influenced subsequent trends in population size.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS1999

A lead isotope distribution study in swine tissue using ICP-MS

In the United States lead is an ubiquitous environmental pollutant that is a serious human health hazard, especially for women of childbearing age, developing fetuses, and young children. Information concerning the uptake and distribution of lead to maternal and fetal tissues during pregnancy is poorly documented. A study was designed using domestic swine and lead isotope enrichment methodology to focus on maternal absorption and distribution of lead into bone and soft tissues, including the fetal compartment, under varying conditions of oral lead exposure and during altered physiological states (pregnant vs unbred). Total lead levels and Pb207/Pb206 ratios in bone (femur and vertebra), blood, and soft tissues (liver, kidney, brain) were determined by ICP-MS. Lead in fetal tissues derived from maternal bone could be differentiated from that derived from exogenous dosing. Unbred swine absorbed much less lead than pregnant females receiving the same dose. The accuracy and precision of ICP-MS at the instrumental level and for the entire method (sample collection, digestion, and analysis) were evaluated for both Pb207/Pb206 ratios and total lead. Several changes were suggested in method design to improve both instrumental and total method precision.

Atomic Spectroscopy↗

USGS1998

Operational modeling system with dynamic-wave routing

A near real-time streamflow-simulation system utilizing continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff generation with dynamic-wave routing is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Du Page County Department of Environmental Concerns for a 24-kilometer reach of Salt Creek in Du Page County, Illinois. This system is needed in order to more effectively manage the Elmhurst Quarry Flood Control Facility, an off-line stormwater diversion reservoir located along Salt Creek. Near real time simulation capabilities will enable the testing and evaluation of potential rainfall, diversion, and return-flow scenarios on water-surface elevations along Salt Creek before implementing diversions or return-flows. The climatological inputs for the continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model, Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) are obtained by Internet access and from a network of radio-telemetered precipitation gages reporting to a base-station computer. The unit area runoff time series generated from HSPF are the input for the dynamic-wave routing model. Full Equations (FEQ). The Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios (GENSCN) interface is used as a pre- and post-processor for managing input data and displaying and managing simulation results. The GENSCN interface includes a variety of graphical and analytical tools for evaluation and quick visualization of the results of operational scenario simulations and thereby makes it possible to obtain the full benefit of the fully distributed dynamic routing results.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

Time-series sediment acoustics and LISST-ABS testing

Acoustics and other surrogates can be used to accurately and cost-effectively provide time-series estimates of suspended-sediment concentration and load, which is essential for creating informed solutions to many sediment-related environmental, engineering, and agricultural concerns. Interagency efforts in recent years have advanced the testing, methods development, operational guidelines, and training on sediment acoustics. This extended abstract provides an update on horizontal profiling methodologies and introduces the testing of the LISST-ABS (Acoustic Backscatter Sensor).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

Flying with the wind: Scale dependency of speed and direction measurements in modelling wind support in avian flight

Background : Understanding how environmental conditions, especially wind, influence birds' flight speeds is a prerequisite for understanding many important aspects of bird flight, including optimal migration strategies, navigation, and compensation for wind drift. Recent developments in tracking technology and the increased availability of data on large-scale weather patterns have made it possible to use path annotation to link the location of animals to environmental conditions such as wind speed and direction. However, there are various measures available for describing not only wind conditions but also the bird's flight direction and ground speed, and it is unclear which is best for determining the amount of wind support (the length of the wind vector in a bird’s flight direction) and the influence of cross-winds (the length of the wind vector perpendicular to a bird’s direction) throughout a bird's journey. Results : We compared relationships between cross-wind, wind support and bird movements, using path annotation derived from two different global weather reanalysis datasets and three different measures of direction and speed calculation for 288 individuals of nine bird species. Wind was a strong predictor of bird ground speed, explaining 10-66% of the variance, depending on species. Models using data from different weather sources gave qualitatively similar results; however, determining flight direction and speed from successive locations, even at short (15 min intervals), was inferior to using instantaneous GPS-based measures of speed and direction. Use of successive location data significantly underestimated the birds' ground and airspeed, and also resulted in mistaken associations between cross-winds, wind support, and their interactive effects, in relation to the birds' onward flight. Conclusions : Wind has strong effects on bird flight, and combining GPS technology with path annotation of weather variables allows us to quantify these effects for understanding flight behaviour. The potentially strong influence of scaling effects must be considered and implemented in developing sampling regimes and data analysis.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS2013

The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for local hydrologic settings, would inform and improve the development of statistical models can be implicitly estimated by evaluating the differences between explanatory variables estimated from the contributing recharge areas and the circular buffers used to develop existing statistical models. The larger the difference in estimated variables, the more likely that statistical models would be changed, and presumably improved, if explanatory variables estimated from contributing recharge areas were used in model development. Comparing model predictions from the two sets of estimated variables would further quantify—albeit implicitly—how an improved, physically based estimate of explanatory variables would be reflected in model predictions. Differences between the two sets of estimated explanatory variables and resultant model predictions vary spatially; greater differences are associated with areas of steep hydraulic gradients. A direct comparison, however, would require the development of a separate set of statistical models using explanatory variables from contributing recharge areas. Area-weighted means of three environmental variables—silt content, alfisol content, and depth to water from the U.S. Department of Agriculture State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data—and one nitrogen-source variable (fertilizer-application rate from county data mapped to Enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 (NLCDe 92) agricultural land use) can vary substantially between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas and among contributing recharge areas for different sets of well variables. The differences in estimated explanatory variables are a function of the same factors affecting the contributing recharge areas as well as the spatial resolution and local distribution of the underlying spatial data. As a result, differences in estimated variables between circular buffers and contributing recharge areas are complex and site specific as evidenced by differences in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed significantly at the local and basin scale. The scale and distribution of prediction differences can be explained by the underlying differences in the estimated variables and the relative weight of the variables in the statistical models. Differences in predictions of exceeding 1 mg/L as N, which only includes environmental variables, generally correlated with the underlying differences in STATSGO data, whereas differences in exceeding 4 mg/L as N were more spatially extensive because that model included environmental and nitrogen-source variables. Using depths to water from within circular buffers derived from the spatial data and depths to water within the circular buffers calculated from the groundwater-flow model, restricted to the same range, resulted in large differences in predicted probabilities. The differences in estimated explanatory variables between contributing recharge areas and circular buffers indicate incorporation of physically based contributing recharge area likely would result in a different set of explanatory variables and an improved set of statistical models. The use of a groundwater-flow model to improve representations of source areas or to provide more-detailed estimates of specific explanatory variables includes a number of limitations and technical considerations. An assumption in these analyses is that (1) there is a state of mass balance between recharge and pumping, and (2) transport to a pumped well is under a steady state flow field. Comparison of volumeequivalent contributing recharge areas under steady-state and transient transport conditions at a location in the southeastern part of the basin shows the steady-state contributing recharge area is a reasonable approximation of the transient contributing recharge area after between 10 and 20 years of pumping. The first assumption is a more important consideration for this analysis. A gradient effect refers to a condition where simulated pumping from a well is less than recharge through the corresponding contributing recharge area. This generally takes place in areas with steep hydraulic gradients, such as near discharge locations, and can be mitigated using a finer model discretization. A boundary effect refers to a condition where recharge through the contributing recharge area is less than pumping. This indicates other sources of water to the simulated well and could reflect a real hydrologic process. In the Great Miami River Basin, large gradient and boundary effects—defined as the balance between pumping and recharge being less than half—occurred in 5 and 14 percent of the basin, respectively. The agreement between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas, differences in estimated variables, and the effect on statisticalmodel predictions between the population of wells with a balance between pumping and recharge within 10 percent and the population of all wells were similar. This indicated process-model limitations did not affect the overall findings in the Great Miami River Basin; however, this would be model specific, and prudent use of a process model needs to entail a limitations analysis and, if necessary, alterations to the model.

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