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Rates, trends, causes, and consequences of urban land-use change in the United States

Over the past 200 years, changes to the Nation's urban areas have been dramatic. Changes that have occurred relate both to the location of urban centers, as well as to the spatial extent of land dedicated to urban uses. Urban areas at the beginning of the 19th century were located primarily along major rivers or bodies of water, as waterways provided the most efficient means for transporting goods and people. As railroads became prominent, urban areas were able to expand or develop away from the water's edge. Geographic features such as steep slopes, wetlands, and lack of freshwater impeded settlement. In 1902, the National Reclamation Act was passed and with it came funding for the construction of water storage and transportation systems. This encouraged urban expansion in the arid west. After World War II, the Nation's urban areas continued to expand outward away from the city center as populations migrated to the margins of urban areas, where land was less expensive and the environment was less polluted. In 1956, the Federal Highway Act and the building of Interstate highways further facilitated urban expansion across the Unite States. Rural towns, small industrial centers, and farmland were engulfed by expanding urban centers. Over the past 200 years, numerous social, cultural, economic, and political incentives have encouraged urban expansion. In the 1800s, the industrial revolution influenced where people lived and worked. Many people shifted from agricultural production in rural areas to factory work in urban centers. Advances in transportation systems, such as rail transport in the 19th and early 20th centuries, followed by the mass production of the automobile and convenient air travel, facilitated a mobile society and a national economy. Economic growth and a population boom after World War II spurred increased suburbanization-the shifting of residential areas to the outlying section of a city or to a separate municipality-on the fringe of urban areas. Other economic and political incentives that shaped the urban environment included Federally backed home loans, credit and tax mechanisms that encouraged new development, and less restrictive municipal ordinances regarding building codes, environmental laws, and zoning regulations. Throughout the past two centuries land use changes associated with increasing urbanization have had impacts that resonate at local, regional, and even national scales. Landscape changes resulting from urbanization can be mapped and studied over time. Understanding these changes requires a study of the causes of change as related to social, economic, and political influences. Understanding these changes also requires analysis of how urbanization physically spreads across the landscape. The knowledge gained from studying urban land-use change can be helpful when it flows into local, regional, and national decisionmaking that relates to land-use decisions that impact the people, the economy, and the environment. Deriving a correlation between physical change and the explanations of the causes of change can help anticipate and mitigate the impacts of future change. Throughout the past two centuries changes to the Nation's urban areas are inextricably linked to population changes. The Nation's population started growing slowly along the eastern seaboard during the 17th and 18th centuries, accelerated in the second half of the 19th century, and then continued steadily spreading westward throughout the next hundred years. Currently, nearly 80 percent of the U.S. population resides in urban areas. Land area dedicated to urban use continues to expand, although differently than it has in the past. Most newly urbanized areas are much less densely populated and less intensively developed than they were 50 to 100 years ago.

Professional Paper↗

Lithofacies, Age, and Sequence Stratigraphy of the Carboniferous Lisburne Group in the Skimo Creek Area, Central Brooks Range

The Lisburne Group, a mainly Carboniferous carbonate succession that is widely distributed across northern Alaska, contains notable amounts of oil and gas at Prudhoe Bay. Detailed studies of the Lisburne in the Skimo Creek area, central Brooks Range, delineate its lithofacies, age, conodont biofacies, depositional environments, and sequence stratigraphy and provide new data on its hydrocarbon source-rock and reservoir potential, as well as its thermal history, in this area. We have studied the Lisburne Group in two thrust sheets of the Endicott Mountains allochthon, herein called the Skimo and Tiglukpuk thrust sheets. The southern, Skimo Creek section, which is >900 m thick, is composed largely of even-bedded to nodular lime mudstone and wackestone intercalated with intervals of thin- to thick-bedded bioclastic packstone and grainstone. Some parts of the section are partially to completely dolomitized and (or) replaced by chert. A distinctive, 30-m-thick zone of black, organic-rich shale, lime mudstone, and phosphorite is exposed 170 m below the top of the Lisburne. The uppermost 40 m of section is also distinctive and made up of dark shale, lime mudstone, spiculite, and glauconitic grainstone. The northern, Tiglukpuk Creek section, which is similar to the Skimo Creek section but only ~760 m thick, includes more packstone and grainstone and less organic-rich shale. Analyses of conodonts and foraminifers indicate that both sections range in age from late Early Mississippian (Osagean) through Early Pennsylvanian (early Morrowan) and document a hiatus of at least 15 m.y. at the contact between the Lisburne and the overlying Siksikpuk Formation. No evidence of subaerial exposure was observed along this contact, which may represent a submarine erosional surface. Lithofacies and biofacies imply that the Lisburne Group in the study area was deposited mainly in midramp to outer-ramp settings. Deepest water strata are mud rich and formed below storm or fair-weather wave base on the outer ramp to outer midramp; shallowest facies are storm, sand-wave, and shoal deposits of the inner midramp to inner ramp. A relatively diverse, open-marine fauna occurs throughout much of the Lisburne in the study area, but some beds also contain clasts typical of more restricted, shallow-water environments that were likely transported seaward by storms and currents. Radiolarians are abundant in the shale and phosphorite unit at Skimo Creek and also occur in equivalent strata at Tiglukpuk Creek; high gamma-ray response and elevated total organic-carbon contents (max 5?8 weight percent) also characterize this unit at Skimo Creek. Lithologic, faunal, and geochemical data all suggest that these rocks formed mainly in an outer-ramp to basinal setting with low sedimentation rates, high productivity, and poorly oxygenated bottom water. Shale and mudstone at the top of the Lisburne Group accumulated in a similarly sediment starved, mainly outer ramp environment but lack comparable evidence for high nutrient and low oxygen levels during deposition. Vertical shifts in rock types and faunas delineate numerous parasequences and six probable third-order sequences in the study area; the same sequences are also recognized in the Lisburne Group to the east. Transgressive-system tracts in these sequences generally fine upward, whereas highstand-system tracts coarsen upward. Sequences in the Tiglukpuk Creek section are mostly thinner, contain thinner and more numerous parasequences, and accumulated in somewhat shallower settings than those in the Skimo Creek section. These differences reflect the more seaward position and, thus, increased accommodation space of the Skimo Creek section relative to the Tiglukpuk Creek section during deposition. Organic-rich calcareous shale in the shale and phosphorite unit has a cumulative thickness of at least 15 m and a lateral extent of >50 km; this lithology is the best potential hydrocarbon source rock in the Lisburne Group

Professional Paper↗

Zirconium and hafnium

Zirconium and hafnium are corrosion-resistant metals that are widely used in the chemical and nuclear industries. Most zirconium is consumed in the form of the main ore mineral zircon (ZrSiO 4 , or as zirconium oxide or other zirconium chemicals. Zirconium and hafnium are both refractory lithophile elements that have nearly identical charge, ionic radii, and ionic potentials. As a result, their geochemical behavior is generally similar. Both elements are classified as incompatible because they have physical and crystallochemical properties that exclude them from the crystal lattices of most rock-forming minerals. Zircon and another, less common, ore mineral, baddeleyite (ZrO 2 ), form primarily as accessory minerals in igneous rocks. The presence and abundance of these ore minerals in igneous rocks are largely controlled by the element concentrations in the magma source and by the processes of melt generation and evolution. The world’s largest primary deposits of zirconium and hafnium are associated with alkaline igneous rocks, and, in one locality on the Kola Peninsula of Murmanskaya Oblast, Russia, baddeleyite is recovered as a byproduct of apatite and magnetite mining. Otherwise, there are few primary igneous deposits of zirconium- and hafnium-bearing minerals with economic value at present. The main ore deposits worldwide are heavy-mineral sands produced by the weathering and erosion of preexisting rocks and the concentration of zircon and other economically important heavy minerals, such as ilmenite and rutile (for titanium), chromite (for chromium), and monazite (for rare-earth elements) in sedimentary systems, particularly in coastal environments. In coastal deposits, heavy-mineral enrichment occurs where sediment is repeatedly reworked by wind, waves, currents, and tidal processes. The resulting heavy-mineral-sand deposits, called placers or paleoplacers, preferentially form at relatively low latitudes on passive continental margins and supply 100 percent of the world’s zircon. Zircon makes up a relatively small percentage of the economic heavy minerals in most deposits and is produced primarily as a byproduct of heavy-mineral-sand mining for titanium minerals. From 2003 to 2012, world zirconium mineral concentrates production increased by more than 40 percent, and Australia and South Africa were the leading producers. Global consumption of zirconium mineral concentrates generally increased during the same time period, largely as a result of increased demand in developing economies in Asia and the Middle East. Global demand weakened in 2012, causing a decrease in world production of zirconium mineral concentrates and delaying the development of several new mining projects. Global consumption is expected to increase in the future, however, as demand from the ceramics, chemicals, and metals industries increases (driven by renewed growth in developing economies) and demand for zirconium and hafnium metal increases (driven by the construction and operation of new nuclear powerplants). The behaviors of zirconium and hafnium in the environment are very similar to one another in that most zirconium- and hafnium-bearing minerals have limited solubility and reactivity. Anthropogenic sources of zirconium, and likely hafnium, are from industrial zirconium-containing byproducts and emissions from the processing of sponge zirconium, and exposure to the general population from these sources is small. Zirconium and hafnium are likely not essential to human health and generally are considered to be of low toxicity to humans. The main exposure risks are associated with industrial inhalation and dermal exposure. Because of the low solubility of zirconium and hafnium, ecological health concerns in the aquatic environment and in soils are minimal. Heavy-mineral-sand mining may lead to increased erosion rates when the mining is managed improperly. In addition, surface mining requires removal of the overlying organic soil layer and produces waste material that includes tailings and slimes. The soil removal and mining activity disturbs the surrounding ecosystem and alters the character of the landscape. Dry mineral separation processes create high amounts of airborne dust, whereas wet mineral separation processes do not. In operations that restore the landscape to pre-mining conditions, the volume of waste and the impact on the landscape may be relatively temporary.

Professional Paper↗

Historical bathymetry and bathymetric change in the Mississippi-Alabama coastal region, 1847-2009

Land loss and seafloor change around the Mississippi and Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands are of great concern to the public and to local, state, and federal agencies. The islands provide wildlife protected areas and recreational land, and they serve as a natural first line of defense for the mainland against storm activity (index map on poster). Principal physical conditions that drive morphological seafloor and coastal change in this area include decreased sediment supply, sea-level rise, storms, and human activities (Otvos, 1970; Byrnes and others, 1991; Morton and others, 2004; Morton, 2008). Seafloor responses to the same processes can also affect the entire coastal zone. Sediment eroded from the barrier islands is entrained in the littoral system, where it is redistributed by alongshore currents. Wave and current activity is partially controlled by the profile of the seafloor, and this interdependency along with natural and anthropogenic influences has significant effects on nearshore environments. When a coastal system is altered by human activity such as dredging, as is the case of the MS-AL coastal region, the natural state and processes are altered, and alongshore sediment transport can be disrupted. As a result of deeply dredged channels, adjacent island migration is blocked, nearshore environments downdrift in the littoral system become sediment starved, and sedimentation around the channels is modified. Sediment deposition and erosion are reflected through seafloor evolution. In a rapidly changing coastal environment, understanding historically where and why changes are occurring is essential. To better assess the comprehensive dynamics of the MS-AL coastal zone, a 160-year evaluation of the bathymetry and bathymetric change of the region was conducted.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Ground water redox zonation near La Pine, Oregon: Relation to river position within the aquifer–riparian zone continuum

Increasing residential development since in the 1960s has lead to increases in nitrate concentrations in shallow ground water in parts of the 247 square mile study area near La Pine, Oregon. Denitrification is the dominant nitrate-removal process that occurs in suboxic ground water, and suboxic ground water serves as a barrier to transport of most nitrate in the aquifer. Oxic ground water, on the other hand, represents a potential pathway for nitrate transport from terrestrial recharge areas to the Deschutes and Little Deschutes Rivers. The effects of present and potential future discharge of ground-water nitrate into the nitrogen-limited Deschutes and Little Deschutes Rivers are not known. However, additions of nitrogen to nitrogen-limited rivers can lead to increases in primary productivity which, in turn, can increase the magnitudes of dissolved oxygen and pH swings in river water. An understanding of the distribution of oxic ground water in the near-river environment could facilitate understanding the vulnerability of these rivers and could be a useful tool for management of these rivers. In this study, transects of temporary wells were installed in sub-river sediments beneath the Deschutes and Little Deschutes Rivers near La Pine to characterize near-river reduction/oxidation (redox) conditions near the ends of ground-water flow paths. Samples from transects installed near the center of the riparian zone or flood plain were consistently suboxic. Where transects were near edges of riparian zones, most ground-water samples also were suboxic. Oxic ground water (other than hyporheic water) was uncommon, and was only detected near the outside edge of some meander bends. This pattern of occurrence likely reflects geochemical controls throughout the aquifer as well as geochemical processes in the microbiologically active riparian zone near the end of ground-water flow paths. Younger, typically less reduced ground water generally enters near-river environments through peripheral zones, whereas older, typically more reduced ground water tends to discharge closer to the center of the river corridor. Such distributions of redox state reflect ground-water movement and geochemical evolution at the aquifer-scale. Redox state of ground water undergoes additional modification as ground water nears discharge points in or adjacent to rivers, where riparian zone processes can be important. Lateral erosion of river systems away from the center of the flood plain can decrease or even eliminate interactions between ground water and reducing riparian zone sediments. Thus, ground water redox patterns in near-river sediments appear to reflect the position of a river within the riparian zone/aquifer continuum. Spatial heterogeneity of redox conditions near the river/aquifer boundary (that is, near the riverbed) makes it difficult to extrapolate transect-scale findings to a precise delineation of the oxic-suboxic boundary in the near-river environment of the entire study area. However, the understanding of relations between near-river redox state and proximity to riparian zone edges provides a basis for applying these results to the study-area scale, and could help guide management efforts such as nitrogen-reduction actions or establishment of Total Maximum Daily Load criteria. Coupling the ground-water redox-based understanding of river vulnerability with ground-water particle-tracking-based characterization of connections between upgradient recharge areas and receiving rivers demonstrates one means of linking effects of potential nitrate loads at the beginning of ground-water flow paths with river vulnerability.

Oregon↗

An Assessment of the Potential Effects of Aquifer Storage and Recovery on Mercury Cycling in South Florida

Mercury contamination in the environment is a global concern, especially in areas with abundant wetlands, such as south Florida. As the causal factors of this concern improve, scientists find that many factors that do not necessarily affect mercury concentrations, such as flooding and drying cycles, or changes to carbon and sulfate loading, can profoundly affect net mercury toxicity. Especially important are ecological factors that alter the conversion of mercury to methylmercury, which is the most bioaccumulative and toxic form of mercury in the environment. Resource managers, therefore, need to be aware of possible deleterious affects to mercury toxicity that could result from land and water management decisions. Several aspects of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), including the planned Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) program, have the potential to affect the abundance of methylmercury. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers collaborated on a study to evaluate how the proposed ASR program may affect mercury cycling and toxicity. This project was conducted as an initial assessment of the possible effects of the CERP ASR program on mercury in the south Florida environment. A twofold approach was employed: field sampling and controlled laboratory benchmark experiments. The field sampling survey collected ground-water samples from the Floridan and surficial aquifer systems for the ASR program to determine existing levels of mercury and methylmercury. Laboratory experiments, on the other hand, were designed to determine how the injected surface water would interact with the aquifer during storage periods. Overall, very low levels of mercury and methylmercury (mean values of 0.41 and 0.07 nanograms per liter, respectively) were observed in ground-water samples collected from the Floridan and surficial aquifer systems. These results indicate that 'recovered water' from the CERP ASR program would not represent a significant additional direct load of mercury and methyl-mercury to ASR 'receiving waters'. Net production of methylmercury, however, can result from additions of sulfate or natural organic carbon. Thus, because the Upper Floridan aquifer generally has elevated concentrations of sulfate (relative to ambient Everglades conditions) and surface waters near Lake Okeechobee (the assumed target for ASR receiving waters) are elevated in organic carbon and sulfate, at least some potential for increased methylmercury production might arise from the release of recovered ASR water to locations in or near the Everglades.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Impact of wildfire on levels of mercury in forested watershed systems: Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

Atmospheric deposition of mercury to remote lakes in mid-continental and eastern North America has increased approximately threefold since the mid-1800s (Swain and others, 1992; Fitzgerald and others, 1998; Engstrom and others, 2007). As a result, concerns for human and wildlife health related to mercury contamination have become widespread. Despite an apparent recent decline in atmospheric deposition of mercury in many areas of the Upper Midwest (Engstrom and Swain, 1997; Engstrom and others, 2007), lakes in which fish contain levels of mercury deemed unacceptable for human consumption and possibly unacceptable for fish-consuming wildlife are being detected with increasing frequency. In northern Minnesota, Voyageurs National Park (VNP) (fig. 1) protects a series of southern boreal lakes and wetlands situated on bedrock of the Precambrian Canadian Shield. Mercury contamination has become a significant resource issue within VNP as high concentrations of mercury in loons, bald eagle eaglets, grebes, northern pike, and other species of wildlife and fish have been found. The two most mercury-contaminated lakes in Minnesota, measured as methylmercury in northern pike ( Esox lucius ), are in VNP. Recent multidisciplinary U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research demonstrated that the bulk of the mercury in lake waters, soils, and fish in VNP results from atmospheric deposition (Wiener and others, 2006). The study by Wiener and others (2006) showed that the spatial distribution of mercury in watershed soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) within the Park was highly variable. The majority of factors correlated for this earlier study suggested that mercury concentrations in lake waters and age-1 yellow perch reflected the influence of ecosystem processes that affected within-lake microbial production and abundance of methylmercury (Wiener and others, 2006), while the distribution of mercury in watershed soils seemed to be partially dependent on forest disturbance, especially the historic forest fire pattern (Woodruff and Cannon, 2002). Forest fire has an essential role in the forest ecosystems of VNP (Heinselman, 1996). Because resource and land managers need to integrate both natural wildfire and prescribed fire in management plans, the potential influence of fire on an element as sensitive to the environment as mercury becomes a critical part of their decisionmaking. A number of recent studies have shown that while fire does have a significant impact on mercury at the landscape level, the observed effects of fire on aquatic environments are highly variable and unpredictable (Caldwell and others, 2000; Garcia and Carrigan, 2000; Kelly and others, 2006; Nelson and others, 2007). Caldwell and others (2000) described an increase in methylmercury in reservoir sediments resulting from mobilization and transport of charred vegetative matter following a fire in New Mexico. Krabbenhoft and Fink (2000) attributed increases in total mercury concentrations in young-of-the-year fish in the Florida Everglades to release of mercury resulting from peat oxidation following fires. A fivefold increase in whole-body mercury accumulation by rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) following a fire in Alberta, Canada, apparently resulted from increased nutrient concentrations that enhanced productivity and restructured the food web of a lake within the fire’s burn footprint (Kelly and others, 2006). For this study, we determined the short-term effects of forest fire on mercury concentrations in terrestrial and aquatic environments in VNP by comparing and contrasting mercury concentrations in forest soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch for a burned watershed and an adjacent lake, with similar samples from watersheds and lakes with no fire activity (control watersheds and lakes). The concentration of total mercury in whole, 1-year-old yellow perch serves as a good biological indicator for monitoring trends in methylmercury concentrations in food webs of lakes in North America (Wiener and others, 2007). With a limited gape, age-1 yellow perch that hatched the previous year and resided in a lake for 1 year feed largely on zooplankton and small benthic invertebrates. Thus, age-1 yellow perch provide a baseline for methylmercury concentrations for individual lakes that can be compared across spatial areas. The nine appendixes that accompany this report contain the complete datasets for soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch collected for this study. This report uses data from these three media to provide a framework for evaluating short-term effects of fire on mercury in forested soils and possible effects of the mobilization of mercury from soils on lake water quality and aquatic health.

Minnesota↗

Evaluation of LiDAR-acquired bathymetric and topographic data accuracy in various hydrogeomorphic settings in the Deadwood and South Fork Boise Rivers, West-Central Idaho, 2007

High-quality elevation data in riverine environments are important for fisheries management applications and the accuracy of such data needs to be determined for its proper application. The Experimental Advanced Airborne Research LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-or EAARL-system was used to obtain topographic and bathymetric data along the Deadwood and South Fork Boise Rivers in west-central Idaho. The EAARL data were post-processed into bare earth and bathymetric raster and point datasets. Concurrently with the EAARL surveys, real-time kinematic global positioning system surveys were made in three areas along each of the rivers to assess the accuracy of the EAARL elevation data in different hydrogeomorphic settings. The accuracies of the EAARL-derived raster elevation values, determined in open, flat terrain, to provide an optimal vertical comparison surface, had root mean square errors ranging from 0.134 to 0.347 m. Accuracies in the elevation values for the stream hydrogeomorphic settings had root mean square errors ranging from 0.251 to 0.782 m. The greater root mean square errors for the latter data are the result of complex hydrogeomorphic environments within the streams, such as submerged aquatic macrophytes and air bubble entrainment; and those along the banks, such as boulders, woody debris, and steep slopes. These complex environments reduce the accuracy of EAARL bathymetric and topographic measurements. Steep banks emphasize the horizontal location discrepancies between the EAARL and ground-survey data and may not be good representations of vertical accuracy. The EAARL point to ground-survey comparisons produced results with slightly higher but similar root mean square errors than those for the EAARL raster to ground-survey comparisons, emphasizing the minimized horizontal offset by using interpolated values from the raster dataset at the exact location of the ground-survey point as opposed to an actual EAARL point within a 1-meter distance. The average error for the wetted stream channel surface areas was -0.5 percent, while the average error for the wetted stream channel volume was -8.3 percent. The volume of the wetted river channel was underestimated by an average of 31 percent in half of the survey areas, and overestimated by an average of 14 percent in the remainder of the survey areas. The EAARL system is an efficient way to obtain topographic and bathymetric data in large areas of remote terrain. The elevation accuracy of the EAARL system varies throughout the area depending upon the hydrogeomorphic setting, preventing the use of a single accuracy value to describe the EAARL system. The elevation accuracy variations should be kept in mind when using the data, such as for hydraulic modeling or aquatic habitat assessments.

Idaho↗

Spatial variability of harmful algal blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, July and August 2015

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) tend to be spatially variable vertically in the water column and horizontally across the lake surface because of in-lake and weather-driven processes and can vary by orders of magnitude in concentration across relatively short distances (meters or less). Extreme spatial variability in cyanobacteria and associated compounds poses unique challenges to collecting representative samples for scientific study and public-health protection. The objective of this study was to assess the spatial variability of cyanobacteria and microcystin in Milford Lake, Kansas, using data collected on July 27 and August 31, 2015. Spatially dense near-surface data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, nearshore data were collected by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, and open-water data were collected by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. CyanoHABs are known to be spatially variable, but that variability is rarely quantified. A better understanding of the spatial variability of cyanobacteria and microcystin will inform sampling and management strategies for Milford Lake and for other lakes with CyanoHAB issues throughout the Nation. The CyanoHABs in Milford Lake during July and August 2015 displayed the extreme spatial variability characteristic of cyanobacterial blooms. The phytoplankton community was almost exclusively cyanobacteria (greater than 90 percent) during July and August. Cyanobacteria (measured directly by cell counts and indirectly by regression-estimated chlorophyll) and microcystin (measured directly by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA] and indirectly by regression estimates) concentrations varied by orders of magnitude throughout the lake. During July and August 2015, cyanobacteria and microcystin concentrations decreased in the downlake (towards the outlet) direction. Nearshore and open-water surface grabs were collected and analyzed for microcystin as part of this study. Samples were collected in the uplake (Zone C), midlake (Zone B), and downlake (Zone A) parts of the lake. Overall, no consistent pattern was indicated as to which sample location (nearshore or open water) had the highest microcystin concentrations. In July, the maximum microcystin concentration observed in each zone was detected at a nearshore site, and in August, maximum microcystin concentrations in each zone were detected at an open-water site. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment uses two guidance levels (a watch and a warning level) to issue recreational public-health advisories for CyanoHABs in Kansas lakes. The levels are based on concentrations of microcystin and numbers of cyanobacteria. In July and August, discrete water-quality samples were predominantly indicative of warning status in Zone C, watch status in Zone B, and no advisories in Zone A. Regression-estimated microcystin concentrations, which provided more thorough coverage of Milford Lake ( n =683–720) than discrete samples ( n =21–24), generally indicated the same overall pattern. Regardless of the individual agencies sampling approach, the overall public-health advisory status of each zone in Milford Lake was similar according to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment guidance levels.

Kansas↗

Estimation of unregulated monthly, annual, and peak streamflows in Forest City Stream and lake levels in East Grand Lake, United States-Canada border between Maine and New Brunswick

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, compiled historical data on regulated streamflows and lake levels and estimated unregulated streamflows and lake levels on Forest City Stream at Forest City, Maine, and East Grand Lake on the United States-Canada border between Maine and New Brunswick to study the effects on streamflows and lake levels if two or all three dam gates are left open. Historical regulated monthly mean streamflows in Forest City Stream at the outlet of East Grand Lake (referred to as Grand Lake by Environment Canada) fluctuated between 114 cubic feet per second (ft3 /s) (3.23 cubic meters per second [m3 /s]) in November and 318 ft3 /s (9.01 m3 /s) in September from 1975 to 2015 according to Environment Canada streamgaging data. Unregulated monthly mean streamflows at this location estimated from regression equations for unregulated sites range from 59.2 ft3 /s (1.68 m3 /s) in September to 653 ft3 /s (18.5 m3 /s) in April. Historical lake levels in East Grand Lake fluctuated between 431.3 feet (ft) (131.5 meters [m]) in October and 434.0 ft (132.3 m) in May from 1969 to 2016 according to Environment Canada lake level data for East Grand Lake. Average monthly lake levels modeled by using the estimated hydrology for unregulated flows, and an outflow rating built from a hydraulic model with all gates at the dam open, range from 427.7 ft (130.4 m) in September to 431.1 ft (131.4 m) in April. Average monthly lake levels would likely be from 1.8 to 5.4 ft (0.55 to 1.6 m) lower with the gates at the dam opened than they have been historically. The greatest lake level changes would be from June through September.

Maine, New Brunswick↗

Distribution of selected hydrogeologic characteristics of the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers, Long Island, New York

The Pleistocene- and Cretaceous-age sediments underlying Long Island, New York, compose an important sole-source aquifer system that is nearly 2,000 feet thick in some areas. Sediment characteristics of importance for water supply include water-transmitting properties—horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity—and the distribution of lignite, which provides an important control on oxygen-reduction (redox) conditions and water quality, in Cretaceous-age aquifers. Several decades of urbanization and the associated need to meet water demand have generated abundant data on the lithology of the aquifer sediments and the potential for an improved regional-scale understanding of this aquifer system. There is a range in the source and quality of the information, but large amounts of data, even of lesser quality, can yield insight into important aquifer characteristics. The distribution of the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity and the probability of occurrence of lignite and clay in the aquifer were developed for this study from a database of drilling records and geophysical logs. Lithologic descriptions were categorized into a set of standardized codes, which in turn, were aggregated into a set of general codes for the Pleistocene-age upper glacial and Cretaceous-age Magothy aquifers. General values of hydraulic conductivity were assigned to each code from published estimates on Long Island and analogous hydrogeologic environments on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A binary value of 1 or 0 was assigned to each coded interval to indicate the presence or absence of lignite or based on keywords in the lithologic descriptions. This information was assembled into a geographic information system database that was queried sequentially and used to develop gridded values of each aquifer characteristic by use of ordinary kriging for a set of grids, each representing 10-foot-thick planar slices for the entire vertical thickness of each aquifer. These sets of grids, taken as a whole, represent a quasi-three-dimensional representation of each aquifer characteristic in both the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers. The analysis of hydraulic conductivity shows patterns that generally reflect known depositional features of each unit and are consistent with the current understanding of the geology of the aquifers. Spatial patterns in the upper glacial aquifer show contrasts in estimated hydraulic conductivity: lower values occur in inland areas and likely are associated with glacial moraines; higher values generally occur to the south in association with glacial outwash. Higher values of hydraulic conductivity in the Magothy aquifer, which resulted from deltaic deposition, generally occur in the basal parts of the unit, are associated with channel-lag deposits and are found in parts of the aquifer known for large well yields. Lower values of hydraulic conductivity generally occur in middle parts of the aquifer associated with deposition in overbank and wetland environments. The probability of lignite occurrence is highest in this same vertical zone of the Magothy aquifer, consistent with deposition in wetland environments. The probability of lignite occurrence generally is highest along the southern shore of the island. Lignite occurrence generally is consistent with water-quality patterns; water quality in these same areas indicate chemically reducing conditions and redox-related iron biofouling commonly occurs.

New York↗

Source-tracking approach for detecting and identifying sources of wastewater in waters of Hawaiʻi

Elevated concentrations of nutrients and the fecal-indicator bacteria enterococci are occasionally detected in Hawai‘i’s surface waters by the State of Hawai‘i Department of Health Clean Water Branch. Management efforts to improve the water quality of surface waters are complicated by the fact that nutrients and enterococci can originate from several sources, including wastewater, animal waste, and soils. Wastewater often is the suspected source of nutrients and bacteria, but the source may not always be unequivocally identifiable from the Clean Water Branch’s routine monitoring efforts. This report—prepared in cooperation with the State of Hawai‘i Department of Health Clean Water Branch—describes a source-tracking approach for Hawai‘i that is meant to help investigators determine whether wastewater is present in the environment and where wastewater might be originating, if it is present. Wastewater sources include domestic wastewater entering the environment through on-site disposal systems and municipal wastewater entering the environment through leaky sewer systems or injection-well disposal systems. The source-tracking approach relies on the use of field-measured water properties and multiple chemical tracers of wastewater, including optical brighteners, nutrients, hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in water, nitrogen and oxygen isotopes in nitrate, organic waste compounds, and human-use pharmaceutical compounds. The source-tracking approach proposes the following sequence of steps for investigators to execute: (1) gather background information on the study area, (2) conduct trolling-instrument surveys of physical properties of surface water and identify groundwater-discharge locations, (3) collect water samples at reconnaissance sites and analyze the samples for detergent optical brighteners and specific conductance, (4) collect water samples at targeted sites and have appropriate laboratories analyze the samples for chemical tracers of wastewater, and (5) evaluate analytical results for chemical tracers of wastewater and conclude whether wastewater is present in sampled waters. The conclusions can guide management and stakeholder efforts to protect and improve the quality of Hawai‘i’s water resources.

Hawaii↗

Guidelines and standard procedures for high-frequency groundwater-quality monitoring stations—Design, operation, and record computation

High-frequency water-quality monitoring stations measure and transmit data, often in near real-time, from a wide range of aquatic environments to assess the quality of the Nation’s water resources. Common instrumentation for high-frequency water-quality data collection uses a multi-parameter sonde, which typically has sensors that measure and record water temperature, specific conductance, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Nitrate, turbidity, and fluorescent dissolved organic matter can also be monitored at high frequency. High-frequency groundwater-quality monitoring stations provide high-resolution time-series data to improve understanding of the timing of water-quality changes in the subsurface, especially for aquifer systems with short groundwater-residence times. High-frequency time-series data are used to monitor surface-water to groundwater interaction, quantify contaminant transport rates, and study water-quality variability in relation to variability of precipitation and groundwater pumping rates. High-frequency monitoring for contaminants or their surrogates have the added benefit of providing an early warning to protect valuable or sensitive aquifer resources. High-frequency time-series data also reveal short-term trends in groundwater quality, which may not be identifiable from monthly or annual sampling programs which facilitate the interpretation of decadal conditions. Systematic application of water-quality sonde operational procedures and a standard record-computation process are part of the required quality assurance for producing and documenting complete and accurate high-frequency groundwater-quality monitoring records. To collect quality high-frequency groundwater times-series data, water-quality sondes and sensors require careful field operation, cleaning, and calibration, as well as specific procedures for data computation, evaluation, review, and publication of final records. This report provides guidelines for the use of water-quality sondes and sensors for high-frequency groundwater-quality monitoring and updates the guidance pertaining to standardized records computation procedures for a wide range of groundwater environments. This report builds on previous continuous surface-water-quality monitoring guidance documentation for water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, and nitrate. The specific groundwater-quality monitoring guidelines presented in this report address station selection, design, installation, and operations; sonde and sensor inspections and cleaning and calibration methods; troubleshooting procedures; data evaluations, data corrections, and record computations; and record review, approval, and auditing procedures for the groundwater environment.

Techniques and Methods↗

Public water-supply systems and water use in Tennessee, 1988

This report summarizes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), Division of Water Supply in 1988. Data gathered during an inventory by the TDEC were collated to determine water use, supply sources, population served, and design and storage capacities of the systems. The inventory was limited to systems that were active on June 30, 1988. Results of a survey of the systems conducted by the Tennessee Department of Health and Environment during 1988 were a primary source of data for this report. Data from computer and manual files maintained by the Tennessee Department of Health and Environment and the U.S. Geological Survey also were used. The Division of Water Supply, TDEC, surveyed 541 public water-supply systems. These systems served 81 percent of the population of the State, or 3.95 million people. The gross per capita use statewide for public-supplied water was 179 gallons per day. Total water withdrawals for public supply increased about 39 percent from 510 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1980, to 708 Mgalld in 1988. During the same period, the population increased about 7 percent. Surface-water withdrawals accounted for 63 percent (446 Mgal/d) of the total water withdrawn in the State. All of these withdrawals occurred in the Tennessee (56 percent or 249 Mgal/d) and the Ohio (44 percent or 197 Mgalld) hydrologic regions. Ground water supplied 262 Mgal/d or 37 percent of the total water withdrawn by public-supply systems statewide. Of that amount, 79 percent, or 208 Mgalld, was used in western Tennessee.

Tennessee↗

Simulation and analysis of soil-water conditions in the Great Plains and adjacent areas, central United States, 1951-80

Ground-water recharge and consumptive-irrigation requirements in the Great Plains and adjacent areas largely depend upon an environment extrinsic to the ground-water system. This extrinsic environment, which includes climate, soils, and vegetation, determines the water demands of evapotranspiration, the availability of soil water to meet these demands, and the quantity of soil water remaining for potential ground-water recharge after these demands are met. The geographic extent of the Great Plains contributes to large regional differences among all elements composing the extrinsic environment, particularly the climatic factors. A soil-water simulation program, SWASP, which synthesizes selected climatic, soil, and vegetation factors, was used to simulate the regional soil-water conditions during 1951-80. The output from SWASP consists of several soil-water characteristics, including surface runoff, infiltration, consumptive water requirements, actual evapotranspiration, potential recharge or deep percolation under various conditions, consumptive irrigation requirements, and net fluxes from the ground-water system under irrigated conditions. Simulation results indicate that regional patterns of potential recharge, consumptive irrigation requirements, and net fluxes from the ground-water system under irrigated conditions are largely determined by evapotranspiration and precipitation. The local effects of soils and vegetation on potential recharge cause potential recharge to vary by more than 50 percent in some areas having similar climatic conditions.

Water Supply Paper↗

Effects of temperature changes on maize production in Mozambique

We examined intraseasonal changes in maize phenology and heat stress exposure over the 1979-2008 period, using Mozambique meteorological station data and maize growth requirements in a growing degree-day model. Identifying historical effects of warming on maize growth is particularly important in Mozambique because national food security is highly dependent on domestic food production, most of which is grown in already warm to hot environments. Warming temperatures speed plant development, shortening the length of growth periods necessary for optimum plant and grain size. This faster phenological development also alters the timing of maximum plant water demand. In hot growing environments, temperature increases during maize pollination threaten to make midseason crop failure the norm. In addition to creating a harsher thermal environment, we find that early season temperature increases have caused the maize reproductive period to start earlier, increasing the risk of heat and water stress. Declines in time to maize maturation suggest that, independent of effects to water availability, yield potential is becoming increasingly limited by warming itself. Regional variations in effects are a function of the timing and magnitude of temperature increases and growing season characteristics. Continuation of current climatic trends could induce substantial yield losses in some locations. Farmers could avoid some losses through simple changes to planting dates and maize varietal types.

Climate Research↗

Submarine landslide susceptibility mapping in recently deglaciated terrain, Glacier Bay, Alaska

Submarine mass wasting events have damaged underwater structures and propagated waves that have inundated towns and affected human populations in nearby coastal areas. Susceptibility to submarine landslides can be pronounced in degrading cryospheric environments, where existing glaciers can provide high volumes of sediment, while cycles of glaciation and ice-loss can damage and destabilize slopes. Despite their contribution to potential tsunami hazard, submarine landslides can be difficult to study because of limited access and data collection in underwater environments. Here we present a method to quantify and map the submarine landslide susceptibility of sediment-covered slopes in Glacier Bay, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska, using multibeam-sonar bathymetric digital elevation models (DEMs) and historical maps of glacial extents over the last ∼250 years. After mapping an inventory of >7,000 landslide scarps in submarine sediments, we filtered the inventory by size to account for limitations in DEM resolution and spatial scales relevant to tsunami hazards. We then assessed landslide concentration, accounting for the age of the initial exposure of submarine slopes by deglaciation. We found a positive correlation between landslide concentration and deglaciation age, which we interpreted as a mean landslide accumulation rate over the period of record. Local deviations from this rate indicated differences in susceptibility. Additionally, we accounted for some of the effect of material and morphometric properties by estimating the submarine bedrock-sediment distribution using a morphometric model and assessing the relationship between slope angle and landslide incidence. Finally, we supplemented our susceptibility assessment with a geomorphic component based on the propensity of active submarine fans and deltas to produce landslides. Thus, our map of submarine landslide susceptibility incorporates three components: age-adjusted landslide concentration, slope angle, and geomorphology. We find that areas of mapped high susceptibility correlate broadly with areas of high sediment input and availability, locations of fans and deltas, and steep sediment-covered glacially carved fjords and troughs. Areas of high submarine landslide susceptibility in Glacier Bay moderately correspond with locations of known high-hazard subaerial slopes, but more research on submarine and subaerial landslides in degrading cryospheric environments would be beneficial to better understand landslide and tsunami hazards.

Alaska↗

Decision-making in agent-based modeling: A current review and future prospectus

All basic processes of ecological populations involve decisions; when and where to move, when and what to eat, and whether to fight or flee. Yet decisions and the underlying principles of decision-making have been difficult to integrate into the classical population-level models of ecology. Certainly, there is a long history of modeling individuals' searching behavior, diet selection, or conflict dynamics within social interactions. When all the individuals are given certain simple rules to govern their decision-making processes, the resultant population–level models have yielded important generalizations and theory. But it is also recognized that such models do not represent the way real individuals decide on actions. Factors that influence a decision include the organism's environment with its dynamic rewards and risks, the complex internal state of the organism, and its imperfect knowledge of the environment. In the case of animals, it may also involve complex social factors, and experience and learning, which vary among individuals. The way that all factors are weighed and processed to lead to decisions is a major area of behavioral theory. While classic population-level modeling is limited in its ability to integrate decision-making in its actual complexity, the development of individual- or agent-based models (IBM/ABMs) (we use ABM throughout to designate both “agent-based modeling” and an “agent-based model”) has opened the possibility of describing the way that decisions are made, and their effects, in minute detail. Over the years, these models have increased in size and complexity. Current ABMs can simulate thousands of individuals in realistic environments, and with highly detailed internal physiology, perception and ability to process the perceptions and make decisions based on those and their internal states. The implementation of decision-making in ABMs ranges from fairly simple to highly complex; the process of an individual deciding on an action can occur through the use of logical and simple (if-then) rules to more sophisticated neural networks and genetic algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the ways in which decisions are integrated into a variety of ABMs and to give a prospectus on the future of modeling of decisions in ABMs.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗