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USGS1994

Neural networks for river flow prediction

The surface‐water hydrographs of rivers exhibit large variations due to many natural phenomena. One of the most commonly used approaches for interpolating and extending streamflow records is to fit observed data with an analytic power model. However, such analytic models may not adequately represent the flow process, because they are based on many simplifying assumptions about the natural phenomena that influence the river flow. This paper demonstrates how a neural network can be used as an adaptive model synthesizer as well as a predictor. Issues such as selecting an appropriate neural network architecture and a correct training algorithm as well as presenting data to neural networks are addressed using a constructive algorithm called the cascade‐correlation algorithm. The neural‐network approach is applied to the flow prediction of the Huron River at the Dexter sampling station, near Ann Arbor, Mich. Empirical comparisons are performed between the predictive capability of the neural network models and the most commonly used analytic nonlinear power model in terms of accuracy and convenience of use. Our preliminary results are quite encouraging. An analysis performed on the structure of the networks developed by the cascade‐correlation algorithm shows that the neural networks are capable of adapting their complexity to match changes in the flow history and that the models developed by the neural‐network approach are more complex than the power model.

Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering↗

USGS2005

Some geometric constraints on ring-width trend

Simulations of tree rings from trees of undisturbed forest sites are used to describe natural, long-term width trends. Ring-width trends of canopy-sized white oak are simulated from regressions of BAI (ring area) data of real trees. Examples are given of a tree from a typical re-growth forest in Illinois and of a more slowly growing tree from an old-growth forest in Kentucky. The long-term width trend was simulated as being toward constant ring width regardless of growth rate of the tree. Conditions by which either increasing or decreasing ring-width trends could be simulated from the same linear BAI trend are examined. I conclude that curvilinear width trends, either increasing or decreasing, represent width adjustments to changes in growth rate ( BAI trend) after which the width trend stabilizes to a near-constant value. Interpretation of ring-width trends of trees from undisturbed stands may be useful in assessing stand disturbance history.

Tree-Ring Research↗

USGS2017

Land use history and population dynamics of free-standing figs in a maturing forest

Figs ( Ficus sp.) are often considered as keystone resources which strongly influence tropical forest ecosystems. We used long-term tree-census data to track the population dynamics of two abundant free-standing fig species, Ficus insipida and F . yoponensis , on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), a 15.6-km 2 island in Lake Gatún, Panama. Vegetation cover on BCI consists of a mosaic of old growth (>400 years) and maturing (about 90–150 year old) secondary rainforest. Locations and conditions of fig trees have been mapped and monitored on BCI for more than 35 years (1973–2011), with a focus on the Lutz Catchment area (25 ha). The original distribution of the fig trees shortly after the construction of the Panama Canal was derived from an aerial photograph from 1927 and was compared with previous land use and forest status. The distribution of both fig species (~850 trees) is restricted to secondary forest. Of the original 119 trees observed in Lutz Catchment in 1973, >70% of F . insipida and >90% of F . yoponensis had died by 2011. Observations in other areas on BCI support the trend of declining free-standing figs. We interpret the decline of these figs on BCI as a natural process within a maturing tropical lowland forest. Senescence of the fig trees appears to have been accelerated by severe droughts such as the strong El Niño event in the year 1982/83. Because figs form such an important food resource for frugivores, this shift in resource availability is likely to have cascading effects on frugivore populations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS1981

Reactor-released radionuclides in Susquehanna River sediments

Three Mile Island (TMI) and Peach Bottom (PB) reactors have introduced 137Cs, 134Cs, 60Co, 58Co and several other anthropogenic radionuclides into the lower Susquehanna River. Here we present the release history for these nuclides (Table 1) and radionuclide concentration data (Table 2) for sediment samples collected in the river and upper portions of the Chesapeake Bay (Fig. 1) within a few months after the 28 March 1979 loss-of-coolant-water problem at TMI. Although we found no evidence for nuclides characteristic of a ruptured fuel element, we did find nuclides characteristic of routine operations. Despite the TMI incident, more than 95% of the total 134Cs input to the Susquehanna has been a result of controlled low-level releases from the PB site. 134Cs activity released into the river is effectively trapped by sediments with the major zones of reactor-nuclide accumulation behind Conowingo Dam and in the upper portions of Chesapeake Bay. The reported distributions document the fate of reactor-released radionuclides and their extent of environmental contamination in the Susquehanna-Upper Chesapeake Bay System. ?? 1981 Nature Publishing Group.

Nature↗

USGS1984

Effects of egg oiling on larid productivity and population dynamics

Small quantities of petroleum may adhere to the plumage, feet, or nest materials of breeding birds and be transferred to their eggs during incubation. In this study, oil was applied to naturally incubated Great Black-backed Gull ( Larus marinus ) and Herring Gull ( L. argentatus ) eggs, and its effects on reproductive success were assessed. Embryo survival was inversely proportional to the quantity of petroleum applied to eggshell surfaces. Dose responses, however, were dependent on embryonic age at the time of treatment. Eggs of either species, treated with 10-20 μ l of No. 2 fuel oil 4-8 days after laying, experienced significant reductions in hatching success. Embryos oiled past the midpoint of the 28-day incubation period were insensitive to as much as 100 μl of petroleum. Fuel oil weathered outdoors for several weeks was as toxic as fresh oil to larid embryos. Productivity estimates obtained following various oil treatments indicated that only under severe conditions (e.g. large doses of petroleum contaminating young embryos) could egg oiling have a significant impact upon populations of the Herring Gull and species with similar life-history characteristics. Species that are more sensitive to oil, however, those having lower reproductive potentials and higher postfledging mortality rates or those subject to other stresses, may be more adversely affected by oil pollution.

The Auk↗

USGS2021

An integrated population model for southern sea otters

Southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) have recovered slowly from their near extinction a century ago, and their continued recovery has been challenged by multiple natural and anthropogenic factors. Development of an integrated population model (IPM) for southern sea otters has been identified as a management priority, to help in evaluating the relative impacts of known threats and guide best management options for species recovery. An IPM represents an analytical modeling framework where various types of data relevant to animal health, population trends, and survival can be evaluated collectively to project future population dynamics under different resource management scenarios. Here, we describe the development of a spatially explicit IPM for southern sea otters that is fit by using Bayesian methods to multiple datasets including a time series of range-wide survey counts, estimated survival rates of tagged animals from telemetry-based population studies, and cause-of-death data from comprehensive necropsies of beach-cast carcasses. The core of the model is a stage-structured matrix, in which survival rates for a given life history stage, year, and location are computed as the outcome of multiple ‘competing risks,’ or hazards, allowing for spatiotemporal variation in each hazard, density-dependence, and stochasticity. The parameterized IPM was used to (1) examine how age and sex-specific hazards vary over space and time, (2) gain insights into density-dependent variation in specific hazards, (3) assess population-level effects of known mortality hazards in the past and in future projections, and (4) evaluate the relative benefits of various potential management actions to address these hazards. Our results indicated that different types of hazards have variable impacts at different life history stages of sea otters; for example, shark-bite mortality had a strong impact on mortality of subadult females but relatively low impacts on aged adult female survival, whereas End Lactation Syndrome showed just the opposite age-based pattern. There also was spatial and temporal variation in exposure to different hazards; for example, shark-bite mortality generally was highest at the north and south ends of the sea otter range, End Lactation Syndrome and cardiac disease were highest in the center part of the range, and harmful algal bloom intoxication and protozoal infection mortalities were highest around Morro Bay. The relative impacts of hazards depended on population density; for example, shark-bite mortality had the greatest effect on male survival when population abundance was low, but as densities increased the impacts of cardiac disease (for aged adults) and acanthocephalan peritonitis (for subadults) exceeded the effects of shark-bite mortality. Sensitivity analyses showed that modifying certain hazard rates can have substantial impacts on future population growth; for example, if the shark-bite hazard rate were to decrease by 20 percent, projected abundance after 50 years is predicted to be 18-percent higher, on average, than under baseline conditions. We used the IPM to evaluate the possible impacts of a potential management action: the reintroduction of sea otters to currently unoccupied parts of their historical range. We found that there were large increases in expected growth potential associated with reintroduction programs to various locations to the north and south of the currently occupied range, although a reintroduction to San Francisco Bay was projected to have the greatest potential impacts on future population growth. The IPM for southern sea otters presented here provides resource managers with a useful tool for evaluating the impacts of specific hazards, forecasting future population dynamics and range expansion, and evaluating alternative management scenarios.

California↗

USGS2014

Laboratory constraints on models of earthquake recurrence

In this study, rock friction ‘stick-slip’ experiments are used to develop constraints on models of earthquake recurrence. Constant-rate loading of bare rock surfaces in high quality experiments produces stick-slip recurrence that is periodic at least to second order. When the loading rate is varied, recurrence is approximately inversely proportional to loading rate. These laboratory events initiate due to a slip rate-dependent process that also determines the size of the stress drop [Dieterich, 1979; Ruina, 1983] and as a consequence, stress drop varies weakly but systematically with loading rate [e.g., Gu and Wong, 1991; Karner and Marone, 2000; McLaskey et al., 2012]. This is especially evident in experiments where the loading rate is changed by orders of magnitude, as is thought to be the loading condition of naturally occurring, small repeating earthquakes driven by afterslip, or low-frequency earthquakes loaded by episodic slip. As follows from the previous studies referred to above, experimentally observed stress drops are well described by a logarithmic dependence on recurrence interval that can be cast as a non-linear slip-predictable model. The fault’s rate dependence of strength is the key physical parameter. Additionally, even at constant loading rate the most reproducible laboratory recurrence is not exactly periodic, unlike existing friction recurrence models. We present example laboratory catalogs that document the variance and show that in large catalogs, even at constant loading rate, stress drop and recurrence co-vary systematically. The origin of this covariance is largely consistent with variability of the dependence of fault strength on slip rate. Laboratory catalogs show aspects of both slip and time predictability and successive stress drops are strongly correlated indicating a ‘memory’ of prior slip history that extends over at least one recurrence cycle.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2005

Kimmeridgian Shales Total Petroleum System of the North Sea Graben Province

The North Sea Graben of northwestern Europe, World Energy Project Province 4025, is entirely offshore within the territorial waters of Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom. Extensional tectonics and failed rifting are fundamental to the distribution of oil and gas in the province. Accordingly, the geologic history and reser-voir rocks of the province are considered in the context of their temporal relationship to the principal extension and rifting events. The oil and gas accumulations of the province are considered part of a single petroleum system: the Kimmeridg-ian Shales Total Petroleum System (TPS). Source rocks of the Kimmeridgian Shales TPS were deposited in Late Jurassic to earliest Cretaceous time during the period of intensive exten-sion and rifting. The Kimmeridgian Shales contain typical 'type II' mixed kerogen. Oil and gas generation began locally in the North Sea Graben Province by Cretaceous time and has continued in various places ever since. Reservoirs are found in strata with ages ranging from Devonian to Eocene. Pre-rift reservoirs are found in fault-block structures activated during rifting and can be of any age prior to the Late Jurassic. Syn-rift reservoirs are restricted to strata actually deposited during maximum extension and include rocks of Late Jurassic to earliest Cretaceous age. Post-rift reservoirs formed after rifting and range in age from Early Cretaceous to Eocene. Seals are diverse, depending upon the structural setting and reservoir age. Pre-rift reservoirs com-monly have seals formed by fine-grained, post-rift sedimentary sequences that drape the Late Jurassic to earliest Cretaceous structures. Contemporaneous shales such as the Kimmeridge Clay seal many syn-rift reservoirs. Fields with post-rift res-ervoirs generally require seals in fine-grained Tertiary rocks. In most of the North Sea Graben, source rocks have been continuously buried since deposition. Structural trap forma-tion has also taken place continuously since Mesozoic time. As a result, oil and gas are present in a wide variety of settings within Province 4025. Assessment units for the World Energy Project were defined geographically in order to capture regional differ-ences in exploration history, geography, and geological evolution. Three geographic areas were assessed. The Viking Graben, in the northern part of the province, includes both United Kingdom and Norwegian territorial areas. The Moray Firth/Witch Ground in the west-central part of the province is entirely in United Kingdom. waters. The Central Graben in the southern part of the province includes territorial areas of Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom. The North Sea Graben is estimated to contain between 4.3 and 25.6 billion barrels (BBO) of undiscovered, conventionally recoverable oil. Of that total, the Viking Graben is believed to contain 2.2 to 14.8 BBO of undiscov-ered oil, the Moray Firth/Witch Ground may contain between 0.3 and 1.9 BBO, and the Central Graben was estimated to contain undiscovered oil resources of 1.7 to 8.8 BBO. Prov-ince 4025 was also estimated to hold between 11.8 and 75 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of undiscovered natural gas. Of this total, 6.8 to 44.5 TCF is thought to exist in the Viking Graben, 0.6 to 3.4 TCF is estimated to be in the Moray Firth/Witch Ground, and 4.5 to 27.1 TCF of undiscovered gas is estimated to be in the Central Graben.

Bulletin↗

USGS2024

Induced seismicity strategic vision

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey has a long history of contributions to the understanding and resolution of various scientific questions related to earthquakes associated with human activities, referred to as induced seismicity. Work started with the Rocky Mountain Arsenal studies in the 1960’s (Healy and others, 1968) when it was first discovered that fluid waste-disposal operations can cause earthquakes. U.S. Geological Survey work on induced seismicity continued in the intervening years but expanded dramatically in the early 2010s. Disposal of large volumes of wastewater, a byproduct of oil and gas production, into the subsurface caused an exponential increase in earthquakes in the central United States, including earthquakes that caused damage to buildings and infrastructure in nearby communities. Established in 2012 within the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP), the Induced Seismicity Project (ISP) examines earthquakes that are induced by human activities to assess and mitigate the hazards associated with induced earthquakes as well as understand the conditions and processes controlling induced and natural earthquake generation and recurrence. The ISP examines instances of suspected induced earthquakes, in real-time and retrospectively, to assess the probabilistic hazard and investigate possibilities for reducing that hazard, something currently not possible with natural earthquake activity. The ISP has many synergies with work across multiple areas of EHP, including earthquake monitoring, hazard mitigation, and fundamental research into earthquake processes. The overarching questions that guided the development of our research strategies and approaches are as follows: How can seismicity that is induced by industrial activities be better distinguished from natural processes, particularly in regions with higher rates of natural seismicity? Can faults that may be at increased hazard for induced seismicity be identified based on existing fault structures, past earthquake activity, local stress conditions, or other information? What geologic and operational conditions control the occurrence, spatial and temporal evolution, maximum magnitude, ground shaking, and other characteristics of induced seismic sequences? What roles do surface and subsurface deformation, aseismic slip, and other processes play in the occurrence of injection-induced earthquakes? How can induced seismicity be better forecasted to support the Nation’s energy production and climate mitigation goals while limiting related earthquake hazards? In this report, background on induced seismicity and an overview of the state of knowledge is provided in three topical task areas: (1) oil and gas, (2) geothermal, and (3) geologic CO2 sequestration. This report then presents the EHP’s goals, strategies, and approaches—primarily focused on work in the ISP—for understanding the conditions that lead to induced seismicity, mitigating the associated hazards, and assisting the Nation in meeting its future needs in energy production and mitigation of climate change. Finally, the key limitations and opportunities for innovation are outlined at the end of the report.

Circular↗

USGS2022

Nebraska and Landsat

The rolling plains of Nebraska occupy a storied place in the American psyche. For those living outside the Midwest, the Cornhusker State may be seen as a symbol of the Nation’s heartland, cropped border to border, with country churches and barely standing barns to be found around every turn of its gravel roads. Although the pioneer history and agricultural heritage of the 37th State lend credence to this idyllic view, Nebraska’s varied landscapes and modern economy make the reality of life in the State more complex than its rural image would suggest. Agriculture remains Nebraska’s top industry, but manufacturing now represents 12 percent of the State’s gross domestic product. The financial services and insurance industries account for 8 percent of the gross domestic product in Nebraska, which is the headquarters of Berkshire Hathaway and Mutual of Omaha, the latter of which is named after Nebraska’s largest city, which grew nearly 12 percent between 2010 and 2020. Cropland is indeed a prominent feature in Nebraska, but the State also is home to 8 State parks, 5 national parks, 2 national forests, and 3 national grasslands. The grasses and dunes of the Nebraska Sand Hills that stretch across the north-central quarter of the State are a National Natural Landmark. Data from the Landsat satellite program contribute to the study and management of Nebraska’s land in myriad ways, from monitoring crop productivity and aiding in rangeland management to tracking damage from floods, droughts, or hurricanes. Land cover maps produced using data pulled from the 50-year Landsat archive can offer important insights into urban growth, land use trends, and land change patterns. Here are a few examples of how Landsat has been used in Nebraska.

Nebraska↗

USGS1994

Reproductive and trophic ecology of the soldierfish Myripristis amaena in tropical fisheries

Squirrelfish of the genus Myripristis are valued in small-scale fisheries throughout much of the tropics. The life history and species biology of most of these soldierfishes is poorly known. For the brick soldierfish, M. amaena, in Hawaii and Johnston Atoll, we found that sexual maturity for both sexes was reached between 145 and 160 mm standard length at about six years of age - a large fraction of the apparent maximum size and lifespan. Fecundity was relatively low and increased as the fifth power of body weight. Spawning peaked from about early April to early May, and a secondary peak occurred in September. Myripristis amaena is a nocturnal predator, feeding mostly on meroplankton, especially brachyuran crab megalops, hermit crab larvae, and shrimps, but also taking a variety of benthic prey. In pristine fish communities, holocentrids were abundant, quantitatively important (often dominant) reef predators and prey. Myripristis amaena (and probably other common and important soldierfish) seems to be relatively long lived (at least 14 years), slow growing, and late maturing. The populations suffer considerable natural predation and depend mainly on the largest and oldest fish for reproduction. Heavy, unregulated fishing of these soldierfish, especially at prereproductive size, may severely reduce populations.

Fishery Bulletin↗

USGS2015

Hydro-bio-geomechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments from Nankai Trough

Natural hydrate-bearing sediments from the Nankai Trough, offshore Japan, were studied using the Pressure Core Characterization Tools (PCCTs) to obtain geomechanical, hydrological, electrical, and biological properties under in situ pressure, temperature, and restored effective stress conditions. Measurement results, combined with index-property data and analytical physics-based models, provide unique insight into hydrate-bearing sediments in situ. Tested cores contain some silty-sands, but are predominantly sandy- and clayey-silts. Hydrate saturations S h range from 0.15 to 0.74, with significant concentrations in the silty-sands. Wave velocity and flexible-wall permeameter measurements on never-depressurized pressure-core sediments suggest hydrates in the coarser-grained zones, the silty-sands where S h exceeds 0.4, contribute to soil-skeletal stability and are load-bearing. In the sandy- and clayey-silts, where S h < 0.4, the state of effective stress and stress history are significant factors determining sediment stiffness. Controlled depressurization tests show that hydrate dissociation occurs too quickly to maintain thermodynamic equilibrium, and pressure–temperature conditions track the hydrate stability boundary in pure-water, rather than that in seawater, in spite of both the in situ pore water and the water used to maintain specimen pore pressure prior to dissociation being saline. Hydrate dissociation accompanied with fines migration caused up to 2.4% vertical strain contraction. The first-ever direct shear measurements on never-depressurized pressure-core specimens show hydrate-bearing sediments have higher sediment strength and peak friction angle than post-dissociation sediments, but the residual friction angle remains the same in both cases. Permeability measurements made before and after hydrate dissociation demonstrate that water permeability increases after dissociation, but the gain is limited by the transition from hydrate saturation before dissociation to gas saturation after dissociation. In a proof-of-concept study, sediment microbial communities were successfully extracted and stored under high-pressure, anoxic conditions. Depressurized samples of these extractions were incubated in air, where microbes exhibited temperature-dependent growth rates.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS1963

Studies of fluid inclusions; [Part] 2, Freezing data and their interpretation

Aqueous and non-aqueous inclusions in 84 samples of various minerals from a wide range of geologic environments were studied with the freezing stage in order to gain an insight into the range of concentrations and compositions of fluid inclusions . Inclusions in most Mississippi Valley-type ore minerals contain highly concentrated saline solutions, showing freezing temperatures between -23.4° and -10.5° C; minerals from ore deposits of more typically hydrothermal affiliations mainly show temperatures of -9.4° to nearly 0° C; and inclusions in quartz crystals from sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous rock environments show a wide range of freezing temperatures. Inclusions in pegmatite minerals in particular vary over a wide range, from the most concentrated solutions found in any inclusion (> 40% salts) to fairly dilute solutions (< 5% salts). Most inclusions in quartz from Swiss Alpine-type veins, and from Brazilian quartz veins and pegmatites, show freezing temperatures in the range -8.5° to - 2 .5°, and considerable free C02. Other geologic environments sampled include Colombian emerald, pegmatitic topaz and fluorite, the Triassic traprock zeolite assemblage, and sedimentary halite beds. Not all the phenomena exhibited by inclusions at low temperature are completely understood at present but several crystalline hydrate phases, such as NaCl-2H,0 and CO,-5%H,0 (structural formula 8C02-46H20), are shown to be stable in inclusions of appropriate composition even at temperatures above 0° C, and probably exist in the inclusions in natural rocks in polar regions. More significantly, the formation and recognition of such phases aid in establishing the gross composition of individual inclusions far too small for chemical analysis. The data obtained are useful in a variety of ways, such as: discriminating among gas, liquid, and supercritical fluid , and among liquid water, liquid oil, and liquid C02 in inclusions ; improving precision of the pressure corrections applied to inclusion filling temperature determinations; proving the general lack of leakage into or out of inclusions ; estimating the minimum pressure at the time of deposition of certain samples; verifying the lack of extraneous solid crystallization nuclei in the inclusions and hence their formation from exceedingly quiet, clean solutions; determining the total equivalent NaCl concentrations and some information concerning the composition of the fluids from which ores have formed; and determining changes in the composition of the fluids bathing a single crystal during its growth, and at certain times throughout its history.

Economic Geology↗

USGS2015

Evidence for the assimilation of ancient glacier organic carbon in a proglacial stream food web

We used natural abundance δ 13 C, δ 15 N, and Δ 14 C to compare trophic linkages between potential carbon sources (leaf litter, epilithic biofilm, and particulate organic matter) and consumers (aquatic macroinvertebrates and fish) in a nonglacial stream and two reaches of the heavily glaciated Herbert River. We tested the hypothesis that proglacial stream food webs are sustained by organic carbon released from glacial ecosystems. Carbon sources and consumers in the nonglacial stream had carbon isotope values that ranged from -30&permil; to -25&permil; for δ 13 C and from -14&permil; to 53&permil; for Δ 14 C reflecting a food web sustained mainly on contemporary primary production. In contrast, biofilm in the two glacial stream sites was highly Δ 14 C-depleted (-215&permil; to 175&permil;) relative to the nonglacial stream consistent with the assimilation of ancient glacier organic carbon. IsoSource modeling showed that in upper Herbert River, macroinvertebrates (Δ 14 C = -171&permil; to 22&permil;) and juvenile salmonids (Δ 14 C = −102&permil; to 17&permil;) reflected a feeding history of both biofilm (~ 56%) and leaf litter (~ 40%). We estimate that in upper Herbert River on average 36% of the carbon incorporated into consumer biomass is derived from the glacier ecosystem. Thus, 14 C-depleted glacial organic carbon was likely transferred to higher trophic levels through a feeding history of bacterial uptake of dissolved organic carbon and subsequent consumption of 14 C-depleted biofilm by invertebrates and ultimately fish. Our findings show that the metazoan food web is sustained in part by glacial organic carbon such that future changes in glacial runoff could influence the stability and trophic structure of proglacial aquatic ecosystems.

Limnology and Oceanography↗

USGS2007

Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes

In this report, we present recorded and reconstructed (pre-historical) changes in water levels in the Great Lakes, relate them to climate changes of the past, and highlight major water-availability implications for storage, coastal ecosystems, and human activities. 'Water availability,' as conceptualized herein, includes a recognition that water must be available for human and natural uses, but the balancing of how much should be set aside for which use is not discussed. The Great Lakes Basin covers a large area of North America. The lakes capture and store great volumes of water that are critical in maintaining human activities and natural ecosystems. Water enters the lakes mostly in the form of precipitation and streamflow. Although flow through the connecting channels is a primary output from the lakes, evaporation is also a major output. Water levels in the lakes vary naturally on timescales that range from hours to millennia; storage of water in the lakes changes at the seasonal to millennial scales in response to lake-level changes. Short-term changes result from storm surges and seiches and do not affect storage. Seasonal changes are driven by differences in net basin supply during the year related to snowmelt, precipitation, and evaporation. Annual to millennial changes are driven by subtle to major climatic changes affecting both precipitation (and resulting streamflow) and evaporation. Rebounding of the Earth's surface in response to loss of the weight of melted glaciers has differentially affected water levels. Rebound rates have not been uniform across the basin, causing the hydrologic outlet of each lake to rise in elevation more rapidly than some parts of the coastlines. The result is a long-term change in lake level with respect to shoreline features that differs from site to site. The reconstructed water-level history of Lake Michigan-Huron over the past 4,700 years shows three major high phases from 2,300 to 3,300, 1,100 to 2,000, and 0 to 800 years ago. Within that record is a quasi-periodic rise and fall of about 160 ? 40 years in duration and a shorter fluctuation of 32 ? 6 years that is superimposed on the 160-year fluctuation. Recorded lake-level history from 1860 to the present falls within the longer-term pattern and appears to be a single 160-year quasi-periodic fluctuation. Independent investigations of past climate change in the basin over the long-term period of record confirm that most of these changes in lake level were responses to climatically driven changes in water balance, including lake-level highstands commonly associated with cooler climatic conditions and lows with warm climate periods. The mechanisms underlying these large hydroclimatic anomalies are not clear, but they may be related to internal dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system or dynamical responses of the ocean-atmosphere system to variability in solar radiation or volcanic activity. The large capacities of the Great Lakes allow them to store great volumes of water. As calculated at chart datum, Lake Superior stores more water (2,900 mi3) than all the other lakes combined (2,539 mi3). Lake Michigan's storage is 1,180 mi3; Lake Huron's, 850 mi3; Lake Ontario's, 393 mi3; and Lake Erie's, 116 mi3. Seasonal lake-level changes alter storage by as much as 6 mi3 in Lake Superior and as little as 2.1 mi3 in Lake Erie. The extreme high and low lake levels measured in recorded lake-level history have altered storage by as much as 31 mi3 in Lake Michigan-Huron and as little as 9 mi3 in Lake Ontario. Diversions of water into and out of the lakes are very small compared to the total volume of water stored in the lakes. The water level of Lake Superior has been regulated since about 1914 and levels of Lake Ontario since about 1960. The range of Lake Superior water-level fluctuations and storage has not been altered greatly by regulation. However, fluctuations on Lake Ontario have been reduced from 6.6 ft preregulation

Circular↗

USGS1993

Genetic variability and glacial origins of yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) in North America

Starch–gel electrophoresis was used to analyze muscle and liver tissue for variation in 13 enzymes representing 31 presumptive loci in yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) from 13 localities scattered throughout the natural geographic range of the species in North America. Ten loci were polymorphic, but only three, alcohol dehydrogenase ( ADH-1 *), glucose-6-phosphate isomerase ( GPI-1 *), and phosphoglucomutase ( PGM-2 *), exhibited polymorphisms at relatively high frequencies across localities. Western populations were fixed for one allele at ADH-1 *, eastern populations were fixed for another allele, and populations from intermediate locations in Lake Ontario and Pennsylvania had both alleles. The distributions of alleles at GPI-1 * and PGM-2 *were similar to that of ADH-1 *, exhibiting strong differences between eastern and western populations, although the delineation was not as clear. Western populations were much less variable than eastern populations, and the distribution of alleles indicated that the two groups were derived from Mississippi and Atlantic glacial refugia. Populations near the physiographic discontinuity between the Mississippi and Atlantic drainages in western New York and Pennsylvania exhibited an admixture of typically western and eastern alleles. Such observations are consistent with the mixed faunal history of the region and limited postglacial dispersal of western and eastern populations across the boundary.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2007

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly, but irregularly, control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of naturally occurring multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Any anthropogenically induced climate change will likely reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Current land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area. High mountain ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions. The chapters in this professional paper present (first) an overview of climatic and hydrogeologic framework (chapter A), followed by a regional analysis of ground-water recharge across the entire study area (chapter B). These are followed by an overview of site-specific case studies representing different subareas of the geographically diverse arid and semiarid southwestern United States (chapter C); the case studies themselves follow in chapters D–K. The regional analysis includes detailed hydrologic modeling within the framework of a high-resolution geographic-information system (GIS). Results from the regional analysis are used to explore both the distribution of ground-water recharge for mean climatic conditions as well as the influence of two climatic patterns—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—that impart a high degree of variability to the hydrologic cycle. Individual case studies employ a variety of geophysical and geochemical techniques to investigate recharge processes and relate the processes to local geologic and climatic conditions. All of the case studies made use of naturally occurring tracers to quantify recharge. Thermal and geophysical techniques that were developed in the course of the studies are presented in appendices. The quantification of ground-water recharge in arid settings is inherently difficult due to the generally low amount of recharge, its spatially and temporally spotty nature, and the absence of techniques for directly measuring fluxes entering the saturated zone from the unsaturated zone. Deep water tables in arid alluvial basins correspond to thick unsaturated zones that produce up to millennial time lags between changes in hydrologic conditions at the land surface and subsequent changes in recharge to underlying ground water. Recent advances in physical, chemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques have fostered new types of recharge assessments. Chemical and isotopic techniques include an increasing variety of environmental tracers that are useful and robust. Physically based techniques include the use of heat as a tracer and computationally intensive geophysical imaging tools for characterizing hydrologic conditions in the unsaturated zone. Modeling-based techniques include spatially distributed water-budget computations using high-resolution remotely sensed and ground-based geographic data. Application of these techniques to arid and semiarid settings in the southwestern United States reveals distinct patterns of recharge corresponding to geologic setting, climatic and vegetative history, and land use. Analysis of recharge patterns shows that large expanses of alluvial basin floors are drying out under current climatic conditions, with little to no recharge to underlying ground water. Ground-water recharge occurs mainly beneath upland catchments in which thin soils overlie permeable bedrock, ephemeral channels in which flow may average only several hours per year, and active agricultural areas. The chapters in this professional paper represent a coordinated attempt to develop a better understanding of one of the Nation's most critical yet difficult-to-quantify renewable resources.

Professional Paper↗

USGS1955

Floods of April 1952 in the Missouri River basin

The floods of April 1952 in the Milk River basin, along the Missouri River from the mouth of the Little Missouri River to the mouth of the Kansas River, and for scattered tributaries of the Missouri River in North and South Dakota were the greatest ever observed. The damage amounted to an estimated $179 million. The outstanding featur6 of the floods was the extraordinary peak discharge generated in the Missouri River at and downstream from Bismarck, N. Dak., on April 6 when a large ice jam upstream from the city was suddenly released. Inflow from flooding tributaries maintained the peak discharge at approximately the same magnitude in the transit of the flood across South Dakota; downstream from Yankton, S. Dak., attenuation of the peak discharge was continuous because of natural storage in the wide flood plains. The outstanding characteristic of floods in the Milk River basin was their duration--the flood crested at Havre, Mont., on April 3 and at Nashua, Mont.. on April 18. The floods were caused by an abnormally heavy accumulation of snow that was converted into runoff in a few days of very warm weather at the end of March. The heaviest water content of the snow pack at breakup was in a narrow arc extending through Aberdeen, S. Dak., Pierre, S. Dak.. and northwestward toward the southwest corner of North Dakota. The water content in part of this concentrated cover exceeded 6 inches. The winter of 1951-52, which followed a wet cold fall that made the ground impervious, was one of the most severe ever experienced in South Dakota and northern Montana. Depths of snow and low temperatures combined to produce, at the end of March, one of the heaviest snow covers in the history of the Great Plains. The Missouri River ice was intact upstream from Chamberlain, S. Dak., at the end of March, and the breakup of the ice with inflow of local runoff was one of the spectacular features of the flood. Runoff from the Yellowstone River combining with the flood pouring from the Little Missouri River caused the Missouri River to crest at an all-time high at Elbowoods, N. Dak., on April 4. As this crest moved downstream to Bismarck, its intensity was increased by the alternate storing and release of ice jams plus the inflow from the Knife River. The crest discharge of 500,000 cfs came at Bismarck at 6 p. m. on April 6. following a very sharp rise from 80,000 cfs at 11 a.m. Overflow occurred along the Missouri River from Elbowoods to the mouth with high damage to cities. farmland, and installations located in the flood plain. Cleanup and repair operations following the flood continued for many weeks. Few of the flooded farms produced a crop during 1952. This report presents detailed records of stage and discharge for the flood period on the Missouri River and tributaries from Fort Peck. Mont., to the mouth. Information on damages and river stages collected by other agencies is also presented.

Missouri River Basin↗