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A nuclear DNA perspective on delineating evolutionarily significant lineages in polyploids: the case of the endangered shortnose sturgeon ( Acipenser brevirostrum )

The shortnose sturgeon, Acipenser brevirostrum , oft considered a phylogenetic relic, is listed as an “endangered species threatened with extinction” in the US and “Vulnerable” on the IUCN Red List. Effective conservation of A. brevirostrum depends on understanding its diversity and evolutionary processes, yet challenges associated with the polyploid nature of its nuclear genome have heretofore limited population genetic analysis to maternally inherited haploid characters. We developed a suite of polysomic microsatellite DNA markers and characterized a sample of 561 shortnose sturgeon collected from major extant populations along the North American Atlantic coast. The 181 alleles observed at 11 loci were scored as binary loci and the data were subjected to multivariate ordination, Bayesian clustering, hierarchical partitioning of variance, and among-population distance metric tests. The methods uncovered moderately high levels of gene diversity suggesting population structuring across and within three metapopulations (Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast) that encompass seven demographically discrete and evolutionarily distinct lineages. The predicted groups are consistent with previously described behavioral patterns, especially dispersal and migration, supporting the interpretation that A. brevirostrum exhibit adaptive differences based on watershed. Combined with results of prior genetic (mitochondrial DNA) and behavioral studies, the current work suggests that dispersal is an important factor in maintaining genetic diversity in A. brevirostrum and that the basic unit for conservation management is arguably the local population.

PLoS ONE↗

Effects of low pH on the coral reef cryptic invertebrate communities near CO2 vents in Papua New Guinea

Small cryptic invertebrates (the cryptofauna) are extremely abundant, ecologically important, and species rich on coral reefs. Ongoing ocean acidification is likely to have both direct effects on the biology of these organisms, as well as indirect effects through cascading impacts on their habitats and trophic relationships. Naturally acidified habitats have been important model systems for studying these complex interactions because entire communities that are adapted to these environmental conditions can be analyzed. However, few studies have examined the cryptofauna because they are difficult to census quantitatively in topographically complex habitats and are challenging to identify. We addressed these challenges by using Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) for sampling reef-dwelling invertebrates >2 mm in size and by using DNA barcoding for taxonomic identifications. The study took place in Papua New Guinea at two reef localities, each with three sites at varying distances from carbon dioxide seeps, thereby sampling across a natural gradient in acidification. We observed sharp overall declines in both the abundance (34–56%) and diversity (42–45%) of organisms in ARMS under the lowest pH conditions sampled (7.64–7.75). However, the overall abundance of gastropods increased slightly in lower pH conditions, and crustacean and gastropod families exhibited varying patterns. There was also variability in response between the two localities, despite their close proximity, as one control pH site displayed unusually low diversity and abundances for all invertebrate groups. The data illustrate the complexity of responses of the reef fauna to pH conditions, and the role of additional factors that influence the diversity and abundance of cryptic reef invertebrates.

Milne Bay Province↗

Centering voices of scientists from marginalized backgrounds to understand experiences in climate adaptation science and inform action

Identifying and building solutions to help people and ecosystems adapt to climate change requires participation of all people; however, Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields, including environmental sciences, continue to lack diversity. To address this issue, many institutions have increased programming to recruit and retain people from historically marginalized backgrounds in STEM fields. Institutions use surveys to evaluate the experiences of community members and identify areas for improvement; however, surveys often summarize and reflect majority perspectives and disregard voices of historically marginalized individuals. In June 2021, a survey of graduate students, postdocs, faculty, staff, and researchers affiliated with the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) evaluated their experiences of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice (DEIJ) using Likert-based and long-answer questions. We analyzed the results as a whole, but also focused on the responses of people who self-identified as members of a marginalized group (“marginalized respondents”) in climate adaptation science to center their voices. Marginalized respondents reported being motivated to enter climate adaptation science to improve society and the environment rather than for intellectual curiosity, which motivated one third of non-marginalized respondents. Once in science, marginalized respondents reported feeling less supported and comfortable at work and were more likely to have considered leaving science and academia in the last year. Long-answer responses of marginalized respondents indicated distrust in the ability of leadership and existing DEIJ initiatives to effectively tackle systemic issues and emphasized the importance of focusing on equity and inclusion before recruitment. Marginalized respondents identified additional funding to support existing DEIJ efforts and undergraduates as priorities. By allowing participants to self-identify as part of a marginalized group, we were able to highlight experiences and needs without risking exposure based on race, gender, disability status, or sexual orientation. This approach can be applied to other small organizations with limited demographic diversity.

PLoS ONE↗

Ecological divergence of wild birds drives avian influenza spillover and global spread

The diversity of influenza A viruses (IAV) is primarily hosted by two highly divergent avian orders: Anseriformes (ducks, swans and geese) and Charadriiformes (gulls, terns and shorebirds). Studies of IAV have historically focused on Anseriformes, specifically dabbling ducks, overlooking the diversity of hosts in nature, including gull and goose species that have successfully adapted to human habitats. This study sought to address this imbalance by characterizing spillover dynamics and global transmission patterns of IAV over 10 years at greater taxonomic resolution than previously considered. Furthermore, the circulation of viral subtypes in birds that are either host-adapted (low pathogenic H13, H16) or host-generalist (highly pathogenic avian influenza—HPAI H5) provided a unique opportunity to test and extend models of viral evolution. Using Bayesian phylodynamic modelling we uncovered a complex transmission network that relied on ecologically divergent bird hosts. The generalist subtype, HPAI H5 was driven largely by wild geese and swans that acted as a source for wild ducks, gulls, land birds, and domestic geese. Gulls were responsible for moving HPAI H5 more rapidly than any other host, a finding that may reflect their long-distance, pelagic movements and their immuno-naïve status against this subtype. Wild ducks, long viewed as primary hosts for spillover, occupied an optimal space for viral transmission, contributing to geographic expansion and rapid dispersal of HPAI H5. Evidence of inter-hemispheric dispersal via both the Pacific and Atlantic Rims was detected, supporting surveillance at high latitudes along continental margins to achieve early detection. Both neutral (geographic expansion) and non-neutral (antigenic selection) evolutionary processes were found to shape subtype evolution which manifested as unique geographic hotspots for each subtype at the global scale. This study reveals how a diversity of avian hosts contribute to viral spread and spillover with the potential to improve surveillance in an era of rapid global change.

PLoS Pathogens↗

The control of the upstream movement of fish with pulsated direct current

Alternating-current electromechanical devices installed in the mouths of streams have proved effective in stopping the spawning migrations of the parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) which has seriously damaged Great Lakes fisheries. In a few streams, excessive mortality has occurred to other fish at the alternating-current barriers. A direct-current unit was developed in an attempt to reduce this mortality. This direct-current “diversion device” consists of a row of suspended negative electrodes which begins at the end of a trap wing and extends across the river at a downstream angle of 45° and a series of pipes (positive electrodes) driven into the stream bank. A second array, consisting of horizontal pipes installed downstream and parallel to the suspended electrodes and connected to a series of rods driven into the bank near the positive electrodes, controls the electrical field and dissipates the collecting influence of the positive side of the circuit. The electrical field is established from the end of the trap wing to the opposite bank. Fish are diverted away from the negative electrodes and toward the bank near which the trap is located. The array is activiated by pulsated direct current of essentially square wave shape with pulses at a duty cycle of 0.66 and a repetition rate of 3 per second. Direct-current diversion devices were operated in conjunction with alternating-current barriers during 1956 in the Chocolay River, Marquette County, and the Silver River, Baraga County, Michigan. A total of 15,814 fish comprising 21 species was handled at the Chocolay River with a mortality of 930, or 5.9 percent. If mortalities of fish moving downstream are disregarded, only 287, or 1.9 percent, of the fish moving upstream were killed in the Chocolay River. In the Silver River, 78,648 fish comprising 21 species were taken from the trap of the direct-current diversion device. The total kill of fish moving upstream, including 289 sea lampreys, was 1,016, or 1.3 percent. This river had presented a serious problem in the operation of an alternating-current control device during previous seasons. In 1955, 85.5 percent of three important species of fish were killed at the control structure. During 1956, this mortality was reduced to 8.1 percent by the operation of the direct-current equipment.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Antigenic characterization of H3 subtypes of avian influenza A viruses from North America

Besides humans, H3 subtypes of influenza A viruses (IAVs) can infect various animal hosts, including avian, swine, equine, canine, and sea mammal species. These H3 viruses are both antigenically and genetically diverse. Here, we characterized the antigenic diversity of contemporary H3 avian IAVs recovered from migratory birds in North America. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays were performed on 37 H3 isolates of avian IAVs recovered from 2007 to 2011 using generated reference chicken sera. These isolates were recovered from samples taken in the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific waterfowl migration flyways. Antisera to all the tested H3 isolates cross-reacted with each other and, to a lesser extent, with those to H3 canine and H3 equine IAVs. Antigenic cartography showed that the largest antigenic distance among the 37 avian IAVs is about four units, and each unit corresponds to a 2 log 2 difference in the HI titer. However, none of the tested H3 IAVs cross-reacted with ferret sera derived from contemporary swine and human IAVs. Our results showed that the H3 avian IAVs we tested lacked significant antigenic diversity, and these viruses were antigenically different from those circulating in swine and human populations. This suggests that H3 avian IAVs in North American waterfowl are antigenically relatively stable.

Avian Diseases↗

DNA metabarcoding of biocrust lichen-forming fungi detects responses to disturbance and invasion

Biocrusts dominated by bryophytes and lichens perform important functions in dryland ecosystems but monitoring these communities can be cost prohibitive over broad scales. We explored DNA metabarcoding as a potential tool for monitoring biocrust lichen communities at a site in Washington (U.S.A.) that had already been surveyed for lichen diversity and community composition. We developed a DNA reference library using the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region from specimens collected in the study area. We also visually estimated the abundance of lichen species or groups in 22 plots spanning a range of wildfire history and invasion by the exotic annual grass Bromus tectorum . At these plots, we collected bulk lichen community samples for metabarcoding using two approaches: small sample dishes and combined biocrust fragments collected using tweezers from all species observed. We used PacBio sequencing to simultaneously generate ITS barcode sequences for all lichen-forming fungi (LFF) present in the bulk samples, clustering similar sequences into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Lichen communities detected visually and using DNA metabarcoding both captured a reduction of biocrust diversity and change in community composition related to the abundance of B. tectorum , suggesting that metabarcoding was able to identify the same dominant ecological pattern in biocrust lichens as visual sampling. The tweezer sampling approach captured on average 12.3 more OTUs than the dish approach and some taxa were more consistently detected by one approach or the other. After using the specimen DNA reference library to identify species associated with LFF OTUs, we determined that metabarcoding and visual sampling detected overlapping but different lichen species. Metabarcoding failed to detect common collected taxa, including: Arthonia glebosa, Candelariella spp ., Enchylium tenax, Lecanora muralis, Lecidella spp ., Leptochidium albociliatum, Massalongia carnosa, and Trapeliopsis glaucopholis. However, metabarcoding detected OTUs not visually observed in the genera Elixia, Lecanora, Lecanoropsis, Bacidina, Pyrenodesmia, Xanthocarpia, Trapelia, Verrucaria, and Verruculopsis . Furthermore, metabarcoding identified greater OTU diversity than expected within Diploschistes muscorum, Trapeliopsis bisorediata, and Trapeliopsis steppica . Our results suggest that metabarcoding alone or combined with visual methods could be a useful approach for monitoring biocrust lichen communities and their response to disturbance, invasion, and potential restoration.

Washington↗

Morphological divergence in a continental adaptive radiation: South American ovenbirds of the genus Cinclodes

Cinclodes is an ecologically diverse genus of South American passerine birds and represents a case of continental adaptive radiation along multiple axes. We investigated morphological diversification in Cinclodes using a comprehensive set of morphometric measurements of study skins. Principal component analysis identified 2 primary axes of morphological variation: one describing body size and a second capturing differences in wing-tip shape and toe length. Phylogenetic analyses of the first principal component suggest an early divergence of Cinclodes into 2 main clades characterized by large and small body sizes. We suggest that 2 morphological outliers within these main clades ( C. antarcticus and C. palliatus ) may be cases of island gigantism and that a third ( C. patagonicus ) may reflect ecological character displacement. Despite its ecological and physiological diversity, the genus Cinclodes does not appear to show morphological diversity beyond what is typical of other avian genera.

The Auk↗

Microsatellite DNA and mitochondrial DNA variation in remnant and translocated sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations

All existing sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations have suffered at least 1, and in some cases 2, population bottlenecks. The 1st occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries as a result of commercial hunting that eliminated sea otters from much their native range and reduced surviving populations to small remnants. The 2nd bottleneck occurred when small numbers of otters were reintroduced, via translocation, to areas where the species had been eliminated. We examined genetic variation at 7 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region in 3 remnant populations, Amchitka Island (Aleutian Islands, Alaska), central coastal California, and Prince William Sound (Alaska), and in 2 reintroduced populations, southeast Alaska and Washington, that were founded with transplants from Amchitka, and in the case of southeast Alaska, individuals from Prince William Sound as well. We found no evidence of reduced genetic diversity in translocated populations. Average expected microsatellite heterozygosities ( H E ) were similar in all populations (range, 0.40–0.47), and mtDNA haplotype diversities were higher in reintroduced populations (0.51 for both Washington and southeast Alaska) than in remnant populations ( X̄ = 0.35; range, 0.18–0.45). The levels of genetic diversity we observed within sea otter populations were relatively low when compared with other mammals and are thought to be the result of fur trade exploitation.

Alaska, California, Washington↗

Mitochondrial phylogeography of moose (Alces alces) in North America

Nucleotide variation was assessed from the mitochondrial control region of North American moose ( Alces alces ) to test predictions of a model of range expansion by stepping-stone dispersal and to determine whether patterns of genetic variation support the current recognition of 4 subspecies. Haplotypes formed a star phylogeny indicative of a recent expansion of populations. Values of nucleotide and haplotype diversity were low continentwide but were greatest in the central part of the continent and lowest in peripheral populations. Despite low mitochondrial diversity, moose exhibited a high degree of differentiation regionally, which was not explained by isolation by distance. Our data indicate a pattern of colonization consistent with a large central population that supplied founders to peripheral populations (other than Alaska), perhaps through rare, long-distance dispersal events (leptokurtic dispersal) rather than mass dispersal by a stepping-stone model. The colonization scenario does not account for the low haplotype diversity observed in Alaska, which may be derived from a postcolonization bottleneck. Establishment of peripheral populations by leptokurtic dispersal and subsequent local adaptation may have been sufficient for development of morphological differentiation among extant subspecies.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

Southern marl prairies conceptual ecological model

About 190,000 ha of higher-elevation marl prairies flank either side of Shark River Slough in the southern Everglades. Water levels typically drop below the ground surface each year in this landscape. Consequently, peat soil accretion is inhibited, and substrates consist either of calcitic marl produced by algal periphyton mats or exposed limestone bedrock. The southern marl prairies support complex mosaics of wet prairie, sawgrass sawgrass ( Cladium jamaicense ), tree islands, and tropical hammock communities and a high diversity of plant species. However, relatively short hydroperiods and annual dry downs provide stressful conditions for aquatic fauna, affecting survival in the dry season when surface water is absent. Here, we present a conceptual ecological model developed for this landscape through scientific consensus, use of empirical data, and modeling. The two major societal drivers affecting the southern marl prairies are water management practices and agricultural and urban development. These drivers lead to five groups of ecosystem stressors: loss of spatial extent and connectivity, shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity, extended hydroperiod and drying pattern reversals, introduction and spread of non-native trees, and introduction and spread of non-native fishes. Major ecological attributes include periphyton mats, plant species diversity and community mosaic, Cape Sable seaside sparrow ( Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis ), marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna prey base, American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ), and wading bird early dry season foraging. Water management and development are hypothesized to have a negative effect on the ecological attributes of the southern marl prairies in the following ways. Periphyton mats have decreased in cover in areas where hydroperiod has been significantly reduced and changed in community composition due to inverse responses to increased nutrient availability. Plant species diversity and community mosaics have changed due to shifting gradients to more terrestrial or more aquatic communities, displacement of native communities by non-natives, expansion of woody plants, high-intensity dry season fires, tree-island burnout, and reduced microtopography resulting from alligator population decline. Cape Sable seaside sparrow populations are threatened by nest destruction resulting from extended hydroperiods, drying pattern reversals, and high intensity dry season fires, as well as by the expansion of woody plants into graminoid wetland habitats. Populations of marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna that constitute the aquatic prey base for higher vertebrates have decreased in density and changed in species composition and size structure due to loss of wetland spatial extent, shortened hydroperiod, increased drought severity, loss of aquatic drought refugia in solution holes and alligator holes, and spread of exotic fishes. American alligator populations have declined in the Rocky Glades, and alligator holes have filled with sediment, as a result of shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity. Habitat options for wading birds to forage during the early dry season and during unusually wet years have been reduced due to loss of spatial extent and shortened hydroperiod.

Wetlands↗

Characterization of microtopography and its influence on vegetation patterns in created wetlands

Created wetlands are increasingly used to mitigate wetland loss. Thus, identifying wetland creation methods that enhance ecosystem development might increase the likelihood of mitigation success. Noting that the microtopographic variation found in natural wetland settings may not commonly be found in created wetlands, this study explores relationships between induced microtopography, hydrology, and plant species richness/diversity in non-tidal freshwater wetlands, comparing results from two created wetland complexes with those from a mature reference wetland complex in northern Virginia. Elevation, steel rod oxidation depth, and species cover were measured along replicate multiscale (0.5 m-, 1 m-, 2 m-, and 4 m-diameter) tangentially conjoined circular transects in each wetland. Microtopography was surveyed using a total station and results used to derive three roughness indices: tortuosity, limiting slope, and limiting elevation difference. Steel rod oxidation depth was used to estimate water table depth, with data collected four times during the growing season for each study site. Plant species cover was estimated visually in 0.2 m 2 plots surveyed at peak growth and used to assess species richness, diversity, and wetland prevalence index. Differences in each attribute were examined among disked and non-disked created wetlands and compared to a natural wetland as a reference. Disked and non-disked created wetlands differed in microtopography, both in terms of limiting elevation difference and tortuosity. However, both were within the range of microtopography encompassed by natural wetlands. Disked wetlands supported higher plant diversity and species richness than either natural or non-disked wetlands, as well as greater within-site species assemblage variability than non-disked wetlands. Irrespective of creation method, plant diversity in created wetlands was correlated with tortuosity and limiting elevation difference, similar to correlations observed for natural wetlands. Vegetation was more hydrophytic at disked sites than at non-disked sites, and of equivalent wetland indicator status to natural sites, even though all sites appeared comparable in terms of hydrology. Results suggest that disking may enhance vegetation community development, thus better supporting the goals of wetland mitigation.

Virginia↗

Associations of grassland birds with landscape factors in southern Wisconsin

We investigated the association of grassland birds with field- and landscape-level habitat variables in south-central Wisconsin during 1985–1987. Landscape-level variables were measured and digitized at 200, 400 and 800 m from the perimeter of 38 200 m × 100 m strip transects. A mixture of field and landscape variables was associated with the density of savannah sparrow ( Passerculus sandwichensis ) and grasshopper sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ). Only landscape variables were associated with the density of bobolink ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ), eastern meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ) and all birds that were grassland species of management concern. Field size was not an important predictor of bird density. Cover-type diversity of the surrounding area was commonly selected in the models for three species and all birds that were grassland species of management concern. Higher bird densities in the transects were associated with landscapes where the cover types were less diverse. Landscapes with low cover type diversity were dominated by grassland, pasture and hay. Field habitat, mean patch size of cover types and distance to woody vegetation were the next most common predictors of avian density. The density of some grassland birds increased as nonlinear woody features such as woodlots and shrub carrs decreased in patch size, decreased in total amount in the landscape and increased in distance from a transect. However, density of other species was positively associated with linear woody features such as the total amount and nearness of hedgerows. The composition of the surrounding landscape, at least out to 800 m, is important in grassland bird management.

Wisconsin↗

Grassland bird productivity in warm season grass fields in southwest Wisconsin

Surrogate grasslands established through federal set-aside programs, such as U.S. Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), provide important habitat for grassland birds. Warm season grass CRP fields as a group have the potential for providing a continuum of habitat structure for breeding birds, depending on how the fields are managed and their floristic composition. We studied the nesting activity of four obligate grassland bird species, Bobolink ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ), Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ), Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ), and Henslow's Sparrow ( A. henslowii ), in relation to vegetative composition and fire management in warm season CRP fields in southwest Wisconsin during 2009–2011. Intraspecific variation in apparent nest density was related to the number of years since the field was burned. Apparent Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest in the breeding season immediately following spring burns, apparent Henslow's Sparrow nest density was highest 1 y post burn, and apparent Bobolink and Eastern Meadowlark nest densities were higher in post fire years one to three. Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest on sites with more diverse vegetation, specifically prairie forbs, and on sites with shorter less dense vegetation. Bobolink, Eastern Meadowlark, and Henslow's Sparrow apparent nest densities were higher on sites with deeper litter; litter was the vegetative component that was most affected by spring burns. Overall nest success was 0.487 for Bobolink (22 d nesting period), 0.478 for Eastern Meadowlark (25 d nesting period), 0.507 for Grasshopper Sparrow (22 d nesting period), and 0.151 for Henslow's Sparrow (21 d nesting period). The major nest predators were grassland-associated species: thirteen-lined ground squirrel ( Ictidomys tridecemlineatus ), striped skunk ( Mephitis mephitis ), milk snake ( Lampropeltis triangulum ), American badger ( Taxidea taxus ), and western fox snake ( Elaphe vulpina ). Overall depredation rate was not affected by the number of years since the site had been burned. The diversity of vegetation on warm season CRP fields created by management using fire provides a continuum of structure for obligate grassland birds to use for breeding and habitat for a diversity of nest predators.

Wisconsin↗

Distributions of small nongame fishes in the lower Yellowstone River

The Yellowstone River is the longest unimpounded river in the conterminous United States. It has a relatively natural flow regime, which helps maintain diverse habitats and fish assemblages uncommon in large rivers elsewhere. The lower Yellowstone River was thought to support a diverse nongame fish assemblage including several species of special concern. However, comprehensive data on the small nongame fish assemblage of the lower Yellowstone River is lacking. Therefore, we sampled the Yellowstone River downstream of its confluence with the Clark’s Fork using fyke nets and otter trawls to assess distributions and abundances of small nongame fishes. We captured 42 species (24 native and 18 nonnative) in the lower Yellowstone River with fyke nets. Native species constituted over 99% of the catch. Emerald shiners Notropis atherinoides , western silvery minnows Hybognathus argyritis , flathead chubs Platygobio gracilis , sand shiners Notropis stramineus , and longnose dace Rhinichthys cataractae composed nearly 94% of fyke net catch and were caught in every segment of the study area. We captured 24 species by otter trawling downstream of the Tongue River. Sturgeon chubs Macrhybopsis gelida , channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus , flathead chubs, stonecats Noturus flavus , and sicklefin chubs Macrhybopsis meeki composed 89% of the otter trawl catch. The upstream distributional limit of sturgeon chubs in the Yellowstone River was the Tongue River; few sicklefin chubs were captured above Intake Diversion Dam. This study not only provides biologists with baseline data for future monitoring efforts on the Yellowstone River but serves as a benchmark for management and conservation efforts in large rivers elsewhere as the Yellowstone River represents one of the best references for a naturally functioning Great Plains river.

Montana↗

A new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to forecast aftershocks

Coseismic stress changes have been the primary physical principle used to explain aftershocks and triggered earthquakes. However, this method does not adequately forecast earthquake rates and diverse rupture populations when subjected to formal testing. We show that earthquake forecasts can be impaired by assumptions made in physics-based models, such as the existence of hypothetical optimal faults, and regional scale invariability of the stress field. We compare calculations made under these assumptions along with different realizations of a new conceptual triggering model that features a complete assay of all possible ruptures. In this concept, there always exists a set of theoretical planes that has positive failure stress conditions under a combination of background and coseismic static stress change. In the Earth, all of these theoretical planes may not exist, and if they do, they may not be ready to fail. Thus the actual aftershock plane may not correspond to the plane with the maximum stress change value. This is consistent with observations that mainshocks commonly activate faults with exotic orientations and rakes. Our testing ground is the M=7.2, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence that activated multiple diverse fault populations across the USA-Mexico border in California and Baja California. We carry out a retrospective test involving 748 M≥3.0 triggered earthquakes that occurred during a 3-yr period after the mainshock. We find that a probabilistic expression of possible aftershock planes constrained by pre-mainshock rupture patterns is strongly favoured (89% of aftershocks consistent with static stress triggering) versus an optimal fault implementation (35% consistent). Results show that coseismic stress change magnitudes do not necessarily control earthquake triggering, instead we find that the summed background stress and coseismic stress change promotes diverse ruptures. Our model can thus explain earthquake triggering in regions where optimal plane mapping shows coseismic stress reduction.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Ecosystem development in roadside grasslands: Biotic control, plant-soil interactions, and dispersal limitations

Roadside grasslands undergoing secondary succession are abundant, and represent ecologically meaningful examples of novel, human‐created ecosystems. Interactions between plant and soil communities (hereafter plant–soil interactions) are of major importance in understanding the role of biotic control in ecosystem functioning, but little is known about these links in the context of ecosystem restoration and succession. The assessment of the key biotic communities and interactions driving ecosystem development will help practitioners to better allocate the limited resources devoted to roadside grassland restoration. We surveyed roadside grasslands from three successional stages (0–2, 7–9, and >20 years) in two Mediterranean regions of Spain. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate how interactions between plants, biological soil crusts (BSCs), and soil microbial functional diversity (soil microorganisms) affect indicators of ecosystem development and restoration: plant similarity to the reference ecosystem, erosion control, and soil C storage and N accumulation. Changes in plant community composition along the successional gradient exerted the strongest influence on these indicators. High BSC cover was associated with high soil stability, and high soil microbial functional diversity from late‐successional stages was associated with high soil fertility. Contrary to our expectations, the indirect effects of plants, mediated by either BSCs or soil microorganisms, were very weak in both regions, suggesting a minor role for plant–soil interactions upon ecosystem development indicators over long periods. Our results suggest that natural vegetation dynamics effectively improved ecosystem development within a time frame of 20 years in the grasslands evaluated. They also indicate that this time could be shortened if management actions focus on: (1) maintaining well‐conserved natural areas close to roadsides to enhance plant compositional changes towards late‐successional stages, (2) increasing BSC cover in areas under strong erosion risk, to avoid soil loss, and (3) enhancing soil microbial functional diversity in resource‐limited areas, to enhance soil C and N accumulation.

Ecological Applications↗

Population genetics of Gunnison sage-grouse: Implications for management

The newly described Gunnison sage-grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ) is a species of concern for management because of marked declines in distribution and abundance due to the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush habitat. This has caused remaining populations to be unusually small and isolated. We utilized mitochondrial DNA sequence data and data from 8 nuclear microsatellites to assess the extent of population subdivision among Gunnison sage-grouse populations in southwestern Colorado and southeastern Utah, USA. We found a high degree of population structure and low amounts of gene flow among all pairs of populations except the geographically adjacent Gunnison and Curecanti populations. Population structure for Gunnison sage-grouse was significantly higher than has been reported for greater sage-grouse ( C. urophasianus ). Further, we documented low levels of genetic diversity in some populations (particularly Dove Creek/Monticello and Piñon Mesa with an average of only 3.00 and 2.13 alleles per locus respectively) indicating that translocations from larger, more genetically diverse populations may be warranted. Bayesian analysis identified 3 potential migrants (involving San Miguel, Dove Creek/Monticello, Crawford, and Curecanti). Further, this analysis showed that 4 individuals from Cerro/Cimarron were more closely related to birds from San Miguel than to its geographically closer neighbors Gunnison and Curecanti. This suggests the Cerro/Cimarron area may act as a stepping stone for gene flow between San Miguel and Gunnison and that habitat restoration and protection in areas between these 2 basins should be a priority in an attempt to facilitate natural movement among these populations. Conservation plans should include monitoring and maintaining genetic diversity, preventing future habitat loss and fragmentation, enhancing existing habitat, and restoring converted sagebrush communities.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗