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USGS2021

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

USGS2012

Simulation of streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the upper Guadalupe River watershed, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board and the Upper Guadalupe River Authority, developed and calibrated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model of the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas to simulate streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the watershed and to Canyon Lake for 1995–2010. Model simulations were done to quantify the possible change in water yield of individual subbasins in the upper Guadalupe River watershed as a result of the replacement of ashe juniper ( Juniperus ashei ) with grasslands. The simulation results will serve as a tool for resource managers to guide their brush-management efforts. Model hydrology was calibrated with streamflow data collected at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08167500 Guadalupe River near Spring Branch, Tex., for 1995–2010. Simulated monthly streamflow showed very good agreement with measured monthly streamflow: a percent bias of -5, a coefficient of determination of 0.91, and a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency of 0.85. Modified land-cover input datasets were generated for the model in order to simulate the replacement of ashe juniper with grasslands in 23 brush-management subbasins in the watershed. Each of the 23 simulations showed an increase in simulated water yields in the targeted subbasins and to Canyon Lake. The simulated increases in average annual water yields in the subbasins ranged from 6,370 to 119,000 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 38,900 gallons. The simulated increases in average annual water yields to Canyon Lake from upstream subbasins ranged from 6,640 to 72,700 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 34,700 gallons.

Texas↗

USGS2013

Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy

The condition of the sagebrush ecosystem has been declining in the Western United States, and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a sagebrush-obligate species, has experienced concurrent decreases in distribution and population numbers. This has prompted substantial research and management over the past two decades to improve the understanding of sage-grouse and its habitats and to address the observed decreases in distribution and population numbers. The amount of research and management has increased as the year 2015 approaches, which is when the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is expected to make a final decision about whether or not to protect the species under the Endangered Species Act. In 2012, the Sage-Grouse Executive Oversight Committee (EOC) of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) lead the development of a Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy (hereafter Research Strategy). This request was motivated by a practical need to systematically connect existing research and conservation plans with persisting or emerging information needs. Managers and researchers also wanted to reduce redundancy and help focus limited funds on the highest priority research and management issues. The USGS undertook the development of this Research Strategy, which addresses information and science relating to the greater sage-grouse and its habitat across portions of 11 Western States. This Research Strategy provides an outline of important research topics to ensure that science information gaps are identified and documented in a comprehensive manner. Further, by identifying priority topics and critical information needed for planning, research, and resource management, it provides a structure to help coordinate members of an expansive research and management community in their efforts to conduct priority research.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Nort↗

USGS2015

Management applications of discontinuity theory

Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management to sustain ecosystem goods and services and maintain resilient ecosystems. We propose an approach based on discontinuity theory that accounts for patterns and processes at distinct spatial and temporal scales, an inherent property of ecological systems. Discontinuity theory has not been applied in natural resource management and could therefore improve ecosystem management because it explicitly accounts for ecological complexity. Synthesis and applications . We highlight the application of discontinuity approaches for meeting management goals. Specifically, discontinuity approaches have significant potential to measure and thus understand the resilience of ecosystems, to objectively identify critical scales of space and time in ecological systems at which human impact might be most severe, to provide warning indicators of regime change, to help predict and understand biological invasions and extinctions and to focus monitoring efforts. Discontinuity theory can complement current approaches, providing a broader paradigm for ecological management and conservation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2003

NOGA Online: a USGS resource for energy GIS data and services

The PowerPoint presentation in this report was given at the BLM Resource Management Tools Conference in Phoenix, Arizona, April, 2003. Some diagrams that appeared in the original presentation have been updated in this report. It informs that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Central Energy Resources Team (CERT) in Denver, Colorado, is providing National Oil and Gas Assessment (NOGA) results online at http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/noga/. Available at this site are recently completed assessments of the potential for undiscovered oil and natural gas resources of five priority provinces (Montana Thrust Belt, Powder River Basin, San Juan Basin, Southwestern Wyoming, Uinta-Piceance) to meet the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 2000 (EPCA 2000). High demand for current assessment results and for the entirely digital, 1995 NOGA results for other provinces, prompted CERT to develop an internet map application using ArcIMS to deliver geologic data to the public. CERT continues to work on assessing oil and natural gas resources of priority basins in the United States; assessment results and GIS layers are made available at this site on an ongoing basis.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Assessment of groundwater, soil-gas, and soil contamination at the Vietnam Armor Training Facility, Fort Gordon, Georgia, 2009-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Army Environmental and Natural Resources Management Office of the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, Georgia, assessed the groundwater, soil gas, and soil for contaminants at the Vietnam Armor Training Facility (VATF) at Fort Gordon, from October 2009 to September 2010. The assessment included the detection of organic compounds in the groundwater and soil gas, and inorganic compounds in the soil. In addition, organic contaminant assessment included organic compounds classified as explosives and chemical agents in selected areas. The assessment was conducted to provide environmental contamination data to the U.S. Army at Fort Gordon pursuant to requirements of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Part B Hazardous Waste Permit process. Four passive samplers were deployed in groundwater wells at the VATF in Fort Gordon. Total petroleum hydrocarbons were detected above the method detection level at all four wells. The only other volatile organic compounds detected above their method detection level were undecane and pentadecane, which were detected in two of the four wells sampled. Soil-gas samplers were deployed at 72 locations in a grid pattern across the VATF. Total petroleum hydrocarbons were detected in 71 of the 72 samplers (one sampler was destroyed in the field and not analyzed) at levels above the method detection level, and the combined mass of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and total xylene was detected above the detection level in 31 of the 71 samplers that were analyzed. Other volatile organic compounds detected above their respective method detection levels were naphthalene, 2-methyl-naphthalene, tridecane, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, and perchloroethene. Subsequent to the soil-gas survey, four areas determined to have elevated contaminant mass were selected and sampled for explosives and chemical agents. No detections of explosives or chemical agents above their respective method detection levels were found at any of the sampling locations. The same four locations that were sampled for explosives and chemical agents were selected for the collection of soil samples. A fifth location also was selected on the basis of the elevated contaminant mass of the soil-gas survey. No metals that exceeded the Regional Screening Levels for Industrial Soils as classified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency were detected at any of the five VATF locations. The soil samples also were compared to values from the ambient, uncontaminated (background) levels for soils in South Carolina, as classified by the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control. Because South Carolina is adjacent to Georgia and the soils in the coastal plain are similar, these comparisons are valid. No similar values are available for Georgia to use for comparison purposes. The metals that were detected above the ambient background levels for South Carolina, as classified by the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, include aluminum, arsenic, barium, beryllium, calcium, chromium, copper, iron, lead, magnesium, manganese, nickel, potassium, sodium, and zinc.

Georgia↗

USGS2012

Assessment of groundwater, soil-gas, and soil contamination at the Vietnam Armor Training Facility, Fort Gordon, Georgia, 2009-2011

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Army Environmental and Natural Resources Management Office of the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, Georgia, assessed the groundwater, soil gas, and soil for contaminants at the Vietnam Armor Training Facility (VATF) at Fort Gordon, from October 2009 to September 2011. The assessment included the detection of organic compounds in the groundwater and soil gas, and inorganic compounds in the soil. In addition, organic contaminant assessment included organic compounds classified as explosives and chemical agents in selected areas. The assessment was conducted to provide environmental contamination data to the U.S. Army at Fort Gordon pursuant to requirements of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Part B Hazardous Waste Permit process. This report is a revision of "Assessment of soil-gas, surface-water, and soil contamination at the Vietnam Armor Training Facility, Fort Gordon, Georgia, 2009-2010," Open-File Report 2011-1200, and supersedes that report to include results of additional samples collected in July 2011. Four passive samplers were deployed in groundwater wells at the VATF in Fort Gordon. Total petroleum hydrocarbons and benzene and octane were detected above the method detection level at all four wells. The only other volatile organic compounds detected above their method detection level were undecane and pentadecane, which were detected in two of the four wells. Soil-gas samplers were deployed at 72 locations in a grid pattern across the VATF on June 3, 2010, and then later retrieved on June 9, 2010. Total petroleum hydrocarbons were detected in 71 of the 72 samplers (one sampler was destroyed in the field and not analyzed) at levels above the method detection level, and the combined mass of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and total xylene (BTEX) was detected above the detection level in 31 of the 71 samplers that were analyzed. Other volatile organic compounds detected above their respective method detection levels were naphthalene, 2-methyl-naphthalene, tridecane, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, and perchloroethylene. After the results of the 71 soil-gas samplers were received, 31 additional passive soil-gas samplers were deployed on July 14, 2011, and retrieved on July 18, 2011. These 31 samplers were deployed on a larger areal scale to better define the extent of the contamination. Total petroleum hydrocarbons were detected above their method detection level at all 31 samplers, whereas BTEX was detected above its method detection level at 17 of the 31 samplers. Other organic compounds detected above their method detection levels were naphthalene, 2-methyl-naphthalene, octane, undecane, tridecane, pentadecane, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, chloroform, and perchloroethylene. Subsequent to the 2010 soil-gas survey, four areas determined to have elevated contaminant mass were selected and sampled for explosives and chemical agents. No detections of explosives or chemical agents above their respective method detection levels were found at any of the sampling locations. The same four locations that were sampled for explosives and chemical agents were selected for the collection of soil samples. A fifth location also was selected on the basis of the elevated contaminant mass of the soil-gas survey. No metals that exceeded the Regional Screening Levels for Industrial Soils, as classified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, were detected at any of the five VATF locations. The soil samples also were compared to values from the ambient, uncontaminated (background) levels for soils in South Carolina, as classified by the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control. Because South Carolina is adjacent to Georgia and the soils in the Coastal Plain are similar, these comparisons are valid. No similar values are available for Georgia to use for comparison purposes. The metals that were detected above the ambient background levels for South Carolina, as classified by the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, include aluminum, arsenic, barium, beryllium, calcium, chromium, copper, iron, lead, magnesium, manganese, nickel, potassium, sodium, and zinc.

Georgia↗

USGS2013

Streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for selected locations on the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers, Montana, 1928-2002

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 on the Yellowstone River in Montana intensified public debate over the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council was formed to address conservation issues on the river. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a cumulative-effects study on the main stem of the Yellowstone River. The cumulative-effects study is intended to provide a basis for future management decisions in the watershed. Streamflow statistics, such as flow-frequency and flow-duration data calculated for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions, are a necessary component of the cumulative effects study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, calculated streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers for the 1928–2002 study period. Unregulated streamflow represents flow conditions that might have occurred during the 1928–2002 study period if there had been no water-resources development in the Yellowstone River Basin. Regulated streamflow represents estimates of flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if the level of water-resources development existing in 2002 was in place during the entire study period. Peak-flow frequency estimates for regulated and unregulated streamflow were developed using methods described in Bulletin 17B. High-flow frequency and low-flow frequency data were developed for regulated and unregulated streamflows from the annual series of highest and lowest (respectively) mean flows for specified n-day consecutive periods within the calendar year. Flow-duration data, and monthly and annual streamflow characteristics, also were calculated for the unregulated and regulated streamflows.

Montana;North Dakota;Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Simulation of streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos River watershed, western Texas 1994–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Lubbock and the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, developed and calibrated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model of the Double Mountain Fork Brazos River watershed in western Texas to simulate monthly mean streamflow and to evaluate the effects of brush management on water yields in the watershed, particularly to Lake Alan Henry, for calendar years 1994–2013. Model simulations were done to quantify the possible change in water yield of individual subbasins in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos River watershed as a result of the replacement of shrubland (brush) with grassland. The simulation results will serve as a tool for resource managers to guide brush-management efforts. The model was calibrated from 1994 through 2008 and validated from 2009 through 2013 with streamflow data collected at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08079600 Double Mountain Fork Brazos River at Justiceburg, Texas (hereinafter referred to as the “Justiceburg gage”). Simulated monthly mean streamflow showed agreement with measured monthly mean streamflow for the 1994–2013 study period: the percentage bias was +6, the coefficient of determination was 0.73, and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency was 0.71. The calibrated watershed model was used to perform brush-management simulations. The National Land Cover Database 2006, which was the land-cover data used to develop the watershed model, was modified to simulate shrubland replacement with grassland in each of the 35 model subbasins. After replacement of shrubland with grassland in areas with land slope less than 20 percent and excluding riparian areas, the modeled 20-year (1994 through 2013) water yields to Lake Alan Henry increased by 114,000 acre-feet or about 5,700 acre-feet per year. In terms of the increase in water yield per acre of shrubland replaced with grassland, the average annual increase in water yield was 17,300 gallons per acre. Within the modeled subbasins, the increase in average annual water yield ranged from 5,850 to 34,400 gallons per acre of shrubland replaced with grassland. Subbasins downstream from the Justiceburg gage had a higher average annual increase in water yield (21,700 gallons per acre) than subbasins upstream from the streamflow-gaging station (16,800 gallons per acre).

Texas↗

USGS2017

Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata , we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS1983

Ground-water-use trends in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota, 1880-1980

Detailed ground-water-use information from 1880 to 1980 has been collected and analyzed for the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Interpretation of historic water-use data was required to help water-resource planners and managers assess future trends in water use. Data were also needed for three computer-simulation models of ground-water flow being developed in the Twin Cities area. Methods were developed to collect, evaluate, store, and retrieve information from all local, State, and Federal agencies1 records and publications. A computerized water-use data base was constructed to facilitate generation of statistics on water-use trends and to store and retrieve data for the flow models. Ground-water use was analyzed by use category and aquifer and several trends were observed. Eighty percent of ground water currently withdrawn is from wells in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer. Ground-water use increased from 1880 until the early 1970's, and then declined slightly in the late 1970's. Industrial use in particular declined during the 1970's as a result of conservation that was prompted by increased sewagetreatment and energy costs. The intensity of pumping has decreased within the St. Paul and Minneapolis city limits and increased outside the city limits. The seasonal variability of ground-water use became more pronounced as the percentage of water used for irrigation and air conditioning increased.

Minneosta↗

USGS2014

Spatially explicit modeling of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat in Nevada and northeastern California: a decision-support tool for management

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations are declining throughout the sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem, including millions of acres of potential habitat across the West. Habitat maps derived from empirical data are needed given impending listing decisions that will affect both sage-grouse population dynamics and human land-use restrictions. This report presents the process for developing spatially explicit maps describing relative habitat suitability for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California. Maps depicting habitat suitability indices (HSI) values were generated based on model-averaged resource selection functions informed by more than 31,000 independent telemetry locations from more than 1,500 radio-marked sage-grouse across 12 project areas in Nevada and northeastern California collected during a 15-year period (1998–2013). Modeled habitat covariates included land cover composition, water resources, habitat configuration, elevation, and topography, each at multiple spatial scales that were relevant to empirically observed sage-grouse movement patterns. We then present an example of how the HSI can be delineated into categories. Specifically, we demonstrate that the deviation from the mean can be used to classify habitat suitability into three categories of habitat quality (high, moderate, and low) and one non-habitat category. The classification resulted in an agreement of 93–97 percent for habitat versus non-habitat across a suite of independent validation datasets. Lastly, we provide an example of how space use models can be integrated with habitat models to help inform conservation planning. In this example, we combined probabilistic breeding density with a non-linear probability of occurrence relative to distance to nearest lek (traditional breeding ground) using count data to calculate a composite space use index (SUI). The SUI was then classified into two categories of use (high and low-to-no) and intersected with the HSI categories to create potential management prioritization scenarios based oninformation about sage-grouse occupancy coupled with habitat suitability. This provided an example of a conservation planning application that uses the intersection of the spatially-explicit HSI and empirically-based SUI to identify potential spatially explicit strategies for sage-grouse management. Importantly, the reported categories for the HSI and SUI can be reclassified relatively easily to employ alternative conservation thresholds that may be identified through decision-making processes with stake-holders, managers, and biologists. Moreover, the HSI/SUI interface map can be updated readily as new data become available.

California;Nevada↗

USGS2020

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 2020–30

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been the cornerstone of continental bird conservation and management for hundreds of North American bird species in the United States and Canada for more than 50 years. This strategic plan was developed in collaboration with key partners and stakeholders and charts the ambitious course for the BBS over the next decade (2020–30). Using this plan as a guide, the BBS program will set out to improve the breadth and depth of standardized data collection and analytical products; ensure its products are widely used and recognized as the authoritative source for long-term population change information for most birds; and secure adequate resources, internally and through partnerships, to realize the expanded vision of the BBS intended to support avian management needs through 2030.

Circular↗

USGS2011

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS1980

Water resources thesaurus: A vocabulary for indexing and retrieving the literature of water resources research and development

This Water Resources Thesaurus encompasses such broad research areas as the hydrologic cycle, supply of and demand for water, conservation and best use of available supplies of water, methods of increasing supplies, and the economic, legal, social, engineering, recreational, biological, geographical, ecological, and qualitative aspects of water resources. This volume represents a major revision of the previous edition of the Thesaurus, published in 1971. The principal source of terms for this edition has been the indexing used in Selected Water Resources Abstracts (SWRA). Since its inception in 1968, SWRA has indexed tens of thousands of publications. Its indexing terminology has been developed by expert abstracters and researchers, and represents the range of disciplines related to research, development, and management of water resources.

Monograph↗

USGS2018

Incorporating productivity as a measure of fitness into models of breeding area quality of Arctic peregrine falcons

Using empirical location data from individuals to model habitat quality and species distributions is valuable towards understanding habitat use of wildlife, especially for conservation and management planning. Incorporating measures of reproductive success or survival into these models helps address the role of vital rates (a surrogate of fitness) in affecting a species’ distribution. We used 24-year datasets of Arctic peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus tundrius ) nest-site locations and productivity from the Colville River Special Area, Alaska, USA to model suitability of breeding habitat and the relative quality of used and potential nest sites. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models and covariates describing nest-site productivity, area of surrounding prey habitat, geology, topography, and land-cover type to model and predict intensity of Arctic peregrine falcon nest-site use along the Colville River, and developed a predictive map of intensity of nest-site use. Regions of higher predicted intensity of use were characterized by steeper slopes, greater area of prey habitat, and higher average productivity, which are likely attributed to minimizing predation risk, gaining advantages for hunting, having sufficient prey resources, site quality, and overall fitness. Including productivity in intensity of nest-site use models improved the models, supporting our supposition that adding a fitness parameter enhanced the predictive capability of the species distribution model. Areas predicted to have higher intensity of use by our model can be used to focus efforts of continued protection of areas with frequently occupied and productive nest sites, and conversely, identify areas where protection of nest sites is likely to have few conservation benefits.

Alaska↗

USGS2005

Sediment-transport investigations of the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, 1999 through 2001: Data collection, analysis, and simulation of sediment transport

The upper Yellowstone River in Montana is an important State and national water resource, providing recreational, agricultural, and commercial benefits. Floods in 1996 and 1997, with recorded peak discharges having recurrence intervals close to 100 years, caused substantial streambank erosion and hill- slope mass wasting. Large quantities of sand-, gravel-, and cobble-sized material entrained by the flood flows became flood-bar deposits, creating a source of sediment available for transport during future floods. The flood damage and resulting sedimentation raised concerns about potential streambank-stabilization projects and how the river and riparian corridor might be managed in the future. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Park Conservation District, the Montana Department of Transportation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, investigated sediment transport in the upper Yellowstone River near Livingston from 1999 through 2001 as part of a cumulative effects study to provide a scientific basis for future river management decisions. The purpose of this report is to present the results of data collection, analysis, and simulation of sediment transport for the upper Yellowstone River. The study area included a 13.5-mile study reach of the upper Yellowstone River where substantial sediment transport occurred in 1996 and 1997. In this study area, the upper Yellowstone River is a high gradient, coarse-bed stream having a slope of about 0.0028 foot per foot or more than 14 feet per mile. The study area drains about 3,551 square miles, and runoff results primarily from snowmelt during the spring and summer months. As part of sediment-transport investigations, the U.S. Geological Survey surveyed river cross sections, characterized streambed-material particle size using particle counts and sieve analyses, and collected bedload- and suspended-sediment data during three runoff seasons (1999-2001). Data were collected for stream discharges that ranged from 2,220 cubic feet per second (typical of pre- and post-runoff discharge) to 25,100 cubic feet per second (about 125 percent of bankfull discharge). The distribution of streambed-material particle size was determined, and sediment-transport curves for bedload discharge, suspended-sediment discharge, and total-sediment discharge were developed. The threshold values of streamflow and average stream velocity needed for initiation of bedload transport for selected sediment-size classes showed that little to no bedload was transported for an average stream velocity below about 3 feet per second, and the only particle size transported as bedload at that velocity was sand. Over the range of stream discharges sampled and with silt- and finer-sized particles excluded, bedload discharge averaged about 18 percent of the total-sediment discharge, equal to bedload discharge plus suspended-sediment discharge. At the lowest and highest stream discharges sampled, bedload was, respectively, less than about 2 percent and about 30 percent of the total-sediment discharge. Over the range of stream discharges sampled, the sand-sized part of the total suspended-sediment discharge averaged about 48 percent, where the total suspended-sediment discharge included sand-, silt- and finer-sized particles. At the lowest and highest stream discharges sampled, the sand-sized part of the total suspended-sediment discharge was, respectively, less than about 16 percent and about 50 percent of the total suspended-sediment discharge. The sediment-transport curves were compared to curves for selected sites in the western United States having drainage areas ranging from 21 square miles to over 20,000 square miles. Daily sediment loads transported at bankfull discharge were calculated for each site and results were plotted in relation to drainage area. Results based on the 1999-2001 data-collection period indicate that the estimated daily bedload transported at bankfull discharge in the upper Yellowstone River exceeded the envelope line that bounds the upper end of the data for other selected sites in the Northern Rocky Mountains and is similar in magnitude to that for selected sites in Alaska having braided channels and glacial and snowmelt runoff. Similar comparisons for suspended sediment indicate that daily suspended-sediment load at bankfull discharge is relatively high in the upper Yellowstone River, plotting slightly above the envelope line that bounds the upper end of the data for other selected sites in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Sediment data were used to develop individual transport equations for seven size classes of sediment ranging from small cobbles to very fine sand. A step-wise regression procedure relating sediment discharge to important hydraulic variables showed that average stream velocity was the only significant variable at the 95-percent confidence level. Bedload and suspended-sediment data and equations indicate that more sand is transported for a given velocity than any other particle size, and very little sand-size sediment load is transported below an average stream velocity of about 2.5 feet per second. Transport of coarser-sized sediment (limited to bedload) becomes very little for an average velocity less than about 3.5 feet per second. Results for the 1999-2001 data-collection period indicate that sediment transport in the upper Yellowstone River tends to be limited more by the transport capacity of the stream (capacity or transport limited), than to the availability of sediment in the watershed (supply limited). Sediment data collected and analyzed were used to simulate sediment transport in the study reach using the BRIdge Stream Tube model for Alluvial River Simulation, or BRI-STARS computer model. The model was calibrated and verified using selected data from historical runoff periods. Simulated total-sediment loads, on a reach-averaged basis, were in good agreement with the total-sediment loads determined from the transport curve for the 2-year flood hydrograph but were considerably smaller for the total-sediment loads determined from the transport curve for the 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood hydrographs. The differences probably were largely due to the inability of the model to simulate streambank erosion, hillslope mass-wasting, and other channel-widening processes, which had supplied substantial quantities of sediment to the channel during the 1996 and 1997 floods, and probably continued to contribute to the sediment load in the subsequent years (1999-2001) when the data were collected. Furthermore, the transport curve was applied beyond the measured data for the highest discharges, and may thus be unreliable. Also, the transport curve derived from only limited data may not apply over the full duration of the hydrograph and sediment might be transported over only a portion of the hydrograph, especially for rivers like the upper Yellowstone where snowmelt runoff predominates. The true sediment discharge is, therefore, unknown and might be closer to the simulated values than to the values calculated from the transport curve.

Montana↗

USGS2025

Methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics at gaged and ungaged stream sites in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, Office of Water Resources, computed selected at-site streamflow statistics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in and near Massachusetts and developed regional regression equations for estimating selected streamflows at ungaged stream sites in Massachusetts. Two sets of regional regression equations were developed: (1) the “mainland” equations, for mainland Massachusetts excluding the area covered by the second set, and (2) the “southeastern” equations, for the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer area in southeastern Massachusetts and for Cape Cod. The regression equations and at-site statistics may be used by Federal, State, and local water managers in addressing water-resources issues relevant in Massachusetts. Regional regression analyses for the mainland equations were developed to estimate the following 27 streamflow statistics: 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent flow durations; monthly June, July, August, and September 90- and 50-percent flow durations; February, June, and August median of the monthly means; harmonic mean; and medians of the following annual low-flow frequency statistics: 7-day; 7-day, 2-year; 7-day, 10-year; 30-day, 2-year; and 30-day, 10-year. The analyses used 81 streamgages with minimal to no regulations in and near Massachusetts. The regression analyses determined that four basin characteristics—drainage area, combined hydrologic soils A and B, streamflow variability index, and annual mean temperature—were the only significant explanatory variables for the different mainland equations. Regional regression equations were developed for the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer area in southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, because surface-water drainage areas and groundwater contributing areas do not always coincide in this area of the State. The regression analyses to estimate 10 flow durations from the 99th to 50th percentiles used 18 streamflow sites with some occasional minor regulations—because there are few unregulated streams in southeastern Massachusetts. The analyses determined that groundwater contributing area and storage (combined water bodies and wetlands) were the only significant explanatory variables in the southeastern equations.

Massachusetts↗