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USGS2013

Ecological thresholds as a basis for defining management triggers for National Park Service vital signs: case studies for dryland ecosystems

Threshold concepts are used in research and management of ecological systems to describe and interpret abrupt and persistent reorganization of ecosystem properties (Walker and Meyers, 2004; Groffman and others, 2006). Abrupt change, referred to as a threshold crossing, and the progression of reorganization can be triggered by one or more interactive disturbances such as land-use activities and climatic events (Paine and others, 1998). Threshold crossings occur when feedback mechanisms that typically absorb forces of change are replaced with those that promote development of alternative equilibria or states (Suding and others, 2004; Walker and Meyers, 2004; Briske and others, 2008). The alternative states that emerge from a threshold crossing vary and often exhibit reduced ecological integrity and value in terms of management goals relative to the original or reference system. Alternative stable states with some limited residual properties of the original system may develop along the progression after a crossing; an eventual outcome may be the complete loss of pre-threshold properties of the original ecosystem. Reverting to the more desirable reference state through ecological restoration becomes increasingly difficult and expensive along the progression gradient and may eventually become impossible. Ecological threshold concepts have been applied as a heuristic framework and to aid in the management of rangelands (Bestelmeyer, 2006; Briske and others, 2006, 2008), aquatic (Scheffer and others, 1993; Rapport and Whitford 1999), riparian (Stringham and others, 2001; Scott and others, 2005), and forested ecosystems (Allen and others, 2002; Digiovinazzo and others, 2010). These concepts are also topical in ecological restoration (Hobbs and Norton 1996; Whisenant 1999; Suding and others, 2004; King and Hobbs, 2006) and ecosystem sustainability (Herrick, 2000; Chapin and others, 1996; Davenport and others, 1998). Achieving conservation management goals requires the protection of resources within the range of desired conditions (Cook and others, 2010). The goal of conservation management for natural resources in the U.S. National Park System is to maintain native species and habitat unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations. Achieving this goal requires, in part, early detection of system change and timely implementation of remediation. The recent National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring program (NPS I&M) was established to provide early warning of declining ecosystem conditions relative to a desired native or reference system (Fancy and others, 2009). To be an effective tool for resource protection, monitoring must be designed to alert managers of impending thresholds so that preventive actions can be taken. This requires an understanding of the ecosystem attributes and processes associated with threshold-type behavior; how these attributes and processes become degraded; and how risks of degradation vary among ecosystems and in relation to environmental factors such as soil properties, climatic conditions, and exposure to stressors. In general, the utility of the threshold concept for long-term monitoring depends on the ability of scientists and managers to detect, predict, and prevent the occurrence of threshold crossings associated with persistent, undesirable shifts among ecosystem states (Briske and others, 2006). Because of the scientific challenges associated with understanding these factors, the application of threshold concepts to monitoring designs has been very limited to date (Groffman and others, 2006). As a case in point, the monitoring efforts across the 32 NPS I&M networks were largely designed with the knowledge that they would not be used to their full potential until the development of a systematic method for understanding threshold dynamics and methods for estimating key attributes of threshold crossings. This report describes and demonstrates a generalized approach that we implemented to formalize understanding and estimating of threshold dynamics for terrestrial dryland ecosystems in national parks of the Colorado Plateau. We provide a structured approach to identify and describe degradation processes associated with threshold behavior and to estimate indicator levels that characterize the point at which a threshold crossing has occurred or is imminent (tipping points) or points where investigative or preventive management action should be triggered (assessment points). We illustrate this method for several case studies in national parks included in the Northern and Southern Colorado Plateau NPS I&M networks, where historical livestock grazing, climatic change, and invasive species are key agents of change. The approaches developed in these case studies are intended to enhance the design, effectiveness, and management-relevance of monitoring efforts in support of conservation management in dryland systems. They specifically enhance National Park Service (NPS) capacity for protecting park resources on the Colorado Plateau but have applicability to monitoring and conservation management of dryland ecosystems worldwide.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2015

Identifying multiple timescale rainfall controls on Mojave Desert ecohydrology using an integrated data and modeling approach for Larrea tridentata

The perennial shrub Larrea tridentata is widely successful in North American warm deserts but is also susceptible to climatic perturbations. Understanding its response to rainfall variability requires consideration of multiple timescales. We examine intra-annual to multi-year relationships using model simulations of soil moisture and vegetation growth over 50 years in the Mojave National Preserve in southeastern California (USA). Ecohydrological model parameters are conditioned on field and remote sensing data using an ensemble Kalman filter. Although no specific periodicities were detected in the rainfall record, simulated leaf-area-index exhibits multi-year dynamics that are driven by multi-year (∼3-years) rains, but with up to a 1-year delay in peak response. Within a multi-year period, Larrea tridentata is more sensitive to winter rains than summer. In the most active part of the root zone (above ∼80 cm), >1-year average soil moisture drives vegetation growth, but monthly average soil moisture is controlled by root uptake. Moisture inputs reach the lower part of the root zone (below ∼80 cm) infrequently, but once there they can persist over a year to help sustain plant growth. Parameter estimates highlight efficient plant physiological properties facilitating persistent growth and high soil hydraulic conductivity allowing deep soil moisture stores. We show that soil moisture as an ecological indicator is complicated by bidirectional interactions with vegetation that depend on timescale and depth. Under changing climate, Larrea tridentata will likely be relatively resilient to shorter-term moisture variability but will exhibit higher sensitivity to shifts in seasonal to multi-year moisture inputs.

California↗
USGS2022

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make ‘Functional Types’ more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of ‘Plant Functional Types’ (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, i.e. to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. We review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages (‘Lineage Functional Types’) will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

Rebuilding after collapse: evidence for long-term cohort dynamics in the native Hawaiian rain forest

Questions: Do long-term observations in permanent plots confirm the conceptual model of Metrosideros polymorpha cohort dynamics as postulated in 1987? Do regeneration patterns occur independently of substrate age, i.e. of direct volcanic disturbance impact? Location: The windward mountain slopes of the younger Mauna Loa and the older Mauna Kea volcanoes (island of Hawaii, USA). Methods: After widespread forest decline (dieback), permanent plots were established in 1976 in 13 dieback and 13 non-dieback patches to monitor the population structure of M. polymorpha at ca. 5-yr intervals. Within each plot of 20 × 20 m, all trees with DBH >2.5 cm were individually tagged, measured and tree vigour assessed; regeneration was quantified in 16 systematically placed subplots of 3 × 5 m. Data collected in the subplots included the total number of M. polymorpha seedlings and saplings (five stem height classes). Here we analyse monitoring data from six time steps from 1976 to 2003 using repeated measures ANOVA to test specific predictions derived from the 1987 conceptual model. Results: Regeneration was significantly different between dieback and non-dieback plots. In dieback plots, the collapse in the 1970s was followed by a ‘sapling wave’ that by 2003 led to new cohort stands of M. polymorpha. In non-dieback stands, seedling emergence did not result in sapling waves over the same period. Instead, a ‘sapling gap’ (i.e. very few or no M. polymorpha saplings) prevailed as typical for mature stands. Canopy dieback in 1976, degree of recovery by 2003 and the number of living trees in 2003 were unrelated to substrate age. Conclusions: Population development of M. polymorpha supports the cohort dynamics model, which predicts rebuilding of the forest with the same canopy species after dieback. The lack of association with substrate age suggests that the long-term maintenance of cohort structure in M. polymorpha does not depend on volcanic disturbance but may be related to other environmental mechanisms, such as climate anomalies.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2016

Hydrogeology and hydrologic conditions of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system

The hydrogeology and hydrologic characteristics of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system were characterized as part of ongoing U.S. Geological Survey efforts to assess groundwater availability across the Nation. The need for such a study in the Ozark Plateaus physiographic province (Ozark Plateaus) is highlighted by increasing demand on groundwater resources by the 5.3 million people of the Ozark Plateaus, water-level declines in some areas, and potential impacts of climate change on groundwater availability. The subject study integrates knowledge gained through local investigation within a regional perspective to develop a regional conceptual model of groundwater flow in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (Ozark system), a key phase of groundwater availability assessment. The Ozark system extends across much of southern Missouri and northwestern and north-central Arkansas and smaller areas of southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. The region is one of the major karst landscapes in the United States, and karst aquifers are predominant in the Ozark system. Groundwater flow is ultimately controlled by aquifer and confining unit lithologies and stratigraphic relations, geologic structure, karst development, and the character of surficial lithologies and regolith mantle. The regolith mantle is a defining element of Ozark Plateaus karst, affecting recharge, karst development, and vulnerability to surface-derived contaminants. Karst development is more advanced—as evidenced by larger springs, hydraulic characteristics, and higher well yields—in the Salem Plateau and in the northern part of the Springfield Plateau (generally north of the Arkansas-Missouri border) as compared with the southern part of the Springfield Plateau in Arkansas, largely due to thinner, less extensive regolith and purer carbonate lithology. Precipitation is the ultimate source of all water to the Ozark system, and the hydrologic budget for the Ozark system includes inputs from recharge, losing-stream sections, and groundwater inflows and losses of water to gaining-stream sections, groundwater withdrawals, and surface-water and groundwater outflows to neighboring systems. Groundwater recharge, estimated by a soil-water-balance model, represents about 24 percent, or 11 inches, of 43.9 inches annual precipitation. Recharge is spatially variable, being greater in the northern Springfield Plateau and Salem Plateau than in the southern Springfield Plateau (generally south of the Arkansas border) because of differences in regolith mantle extent and thickness and carbonate lithology and hydraulic properties. Increased precipitation and decreased agricultural land use during the period 1951 through 2011 increased recharge by approximately 5 percent. Although all Ozark streams have losing, neutral, and gaining sections, they are dominantly gaining and are a net sink for groundwater with nearly 90 percent of groundwater recharge returned to springs and streams. Groundwater pumping is a small but important loss of water in the Ozark system hydrologic budget; water-level declines and local cones of depression have been observed around pumping centers and strong concerns exist over potential effects on stream and spring flow. Data indicate that societal needs for freshwater resources in the Ozark Plateaus will continue to increase and will do so in the context of changing climate and hydrology. Groundwater will continue to be an important part of supporting these societal needs and also local ecosystems. The unique character and hydrogeologic variability across the Ozark system will control how the system responds to future stress. Groundwater of the Ozark system in the northern study area is more dynamic, has greater storage and larger flux, and has greater potential for further development than in the part of the study area south of the Arkansas-Missouri border. Further south in Arkansas, a line exists, roughly defined as 5 miles south of the Springfield Plateau-Boston Mountains boundary, beyond which further extensive municipal or commercial development appears unlikely under current economic and resource-need conditions. A small part of the Ozark system groundwater budget is currently drafted for use, leaving an apparently large component available for further development and use—particularly in the northern Springfield Plateau and Salem Plateau; however, the effects of increased pumping on groundwater’s role in maintaining ecosystems and ecosystem services are not quantitatively well understood, and the close relation between groundwater and surface water highlights the importance of further quantitative assessment.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2006

Seasonal dynamics of microbial community composition and function in oak canopy and open grassland soils

Soil microbial communities are closely associated with aboveground plant communities, with multiple potential drivers of this relationship. Plants can affect available soil carbon, temperature, and water content, which each have the potential to affect microbial community composition and function. These same variables change seasonally, and thus plant control on microbial community composition may be modulated or overshadowed by annual climatic patterns. We examined microbial community composition, C cycling processes, and environmental data in California annual grassland soils from beneath oak canopies and in open grassland areas to distinguish factors controlling microbial community composition and function seasonally and in association with the two plant overstory communities. Every 3 months for up to 2 years, we monitored microbial community composition using phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis, microbial biomass, respiration rates, microbial enzyme activities, and the activity of microbial groups using isotope labeling of PLFA biomarkers (13C-PLFA) . Distinct microbial communities were associated with oak canopy soils and open grassland soils and microbial communities displayed seasonal patterns from year to year. The effects of plant species and seasonal climate on microbial community composition were similar in magnitude. In this Mediterranean ecosystem, plant control of microbial community composition was primarily due to effects on soil water content, whereas the changes in microbial community composition seasonally appeared to be due, in large part, to soil temperature. Available soil carbon was not a significant control on microbial community composition. Microbial community composition (PLFA) and 13C-PLFA ordination values were strongly related to intra-annual variability in soil enzyme activities and soil respiration, but microbial biomass was not. In this Mediterranean climate, soil microclimate appeared to be the master variable controlling microbial community composition and function. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Microbial Ecology↗
USGS2024

Stream nitrate dynamics driven primarily by discharge and watershed physical and soil characteristics at intensively monitored sites: Insights from deep learning

We developed a suite of models using deep learning to make hindcast predictions of the 7‐day average backward‐looking nitrate concentration at 46 predominantly agricultural sites across the midwestern and eastern United States. The models used daily observations of discharge and meteorological variables and watershed attributes describing anthropogenic modification to hydrology, nitrogen application, climate, groundwater, land use, watershed physiographic attributes, and soils. Across all sites, discharge and watershed soil and physiographic attributes showed a strong influence on model performance. Analysis of drivers across sites revealed considerable regional differences related to controlling processes such as groundwater contributions. We tested several ways to pool data across sites to develop accurate models and make the most effective use of available data. Single‐site models, in which models are trained and tested at a single location, showed generally strong predictive performance (median Kling‐Gupta Efficiency = 0.66), and accuracy at poorly performing sites could be improved by grouping sites with similar characteristics. Developing a single model for all sites reduced performance at several locations with distinct characteristics, suggesting that there is a threshold of dissimilarity beyond which more data does not improve the model. While many deep learning studies have shown that national or even global models can outperform local models, it is not clear that this is true for water quality constituents. This study demonstrates how data can be combined effectively, using deep learning to develop accurate and interpretable models of instream nitrate at sites where varying processes are responsible for changes in nitrate concentration.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2023

Movement ecology of adult and juvenile spotted turtles (Clemmys guttata) in a seasonally dynamic environment

Context Understanding the temporal and spatial scales at which wildlife move is vital for conservation and management. This is especially important for semi-aquatic species that make frequent inter-wetland movements to fulfil life-history requirements. Aims We aimed to investigate the drivers of movement and space-use of the imperilled spotted turtle ( Clemmys guttata ), a seasonal wetland specialist, in three large, isolated wetland complexes in Virginia, USA. Methods We used VHF radio-transmitters to radio-locate adult and juvenile turtles, and estimated movement and space-use during their active and aestivation seasons (March–August). We then used generalised linear mixed models to examine how movement and space-use varied, based on intrinsic turtle characteristics and extrinsic wetland and climatic factors. Key results We show that, on average, individual spotted turtles used five wetlands per year (range 3–13), and that their inter-wetland movement and movement distance varied seasonally in accordance with wetland availability and breeding phenology. Spotted turtle movement and space-use was influenced by the arrangement and size of the wetland complexes, with turtles moving further and occupying larger home-ranges as size and distance between wetlands increased. Inter-wetland movement was not influenced by intrinsic turtle effects but larger adult turtles moved further, used more wetlands, and had larger home-ranges than smaller turtles. Conclusions Turtle responses to variation in season and wetland configuration highlight the need for complex and dynamic landscapes required to sustain this species. Implications This study has important conservation implications showing that spotted turtles rely on a large number of diverse wetlands, as well as upland habitat, to fulfil their resource needs – and that these habitat associations vary seasonally. Results from our study can aid the understanding of spatial and temporal variation in patch characteristics (e.g. quality and extent) and inter-patch movement by organisms, which is critical for the conservation and management of semi-aquatic species and other organisms that occupy patchy habitat complexes.

Wildlife Research↗
USGS2008

Mapping "old" versus "young" piñon-juniper stands with a predictive topo-climatic model in north-central New Mexico, USA

Piñon pine and juniper woodlands in the southwestern United States are often represented as an expanding and even invasive vegetation type, a legacy of historic grazing, and culpable in the degradation of western rangelands. A long-standing emphasis on forage production, in combination with recent hazard fuel concerns, has prompted a new era of woodland management with stated restoration objectives. Yet the extent and dynamics of piñon–juniper communities that predate intensive Euro-American settlement activities are poorly known or understood, while the intrinsic ecological, aesthetic, and economic values of old-growth woodlands are often overlooked. Historical changes in piñon–juniper stands include two related, but poorly differentiated processes: recent tree expansion into grass- or shrub-dominated (i.e., non-woodland) vegetation and thickening or infilling of savanna or mosaic woodlands predating settlement. Our work addresses the expansion pattern, modeling the occurrence of “older” savanna and woodland stands extant prior to 1850 in contrast to “younger” piñon–juniper growth of more recent, postsettlement origin. We present criteria in the form of a diagnostic key for distinguishing “older,” pre-Euro-American settlement piñon–juniper from “younger” (post-1850) stands and report results of predictive modeling and mapping efforts within a north-central New Mexico study area. Selected models suggest a primary role for soil moisture in the current distribution of “old” vs. “young” piñon–juniper stands. Presettlement era woodlands are shown to occupy a discrete ecological space, defined by the interaction of effective (seasonal) moisture with landform setting and fine-scale (soil/water) depositional patterns. “Older” stands are generally found at higher elevations or on skeletal soils in upland settings, while “younger” stands (often dominated by one-seed juniper, Juniperus monosperma ) are most common at lower elevations or in productive, depositional settings. Modeling at broad regional scales can enhance our general understanding of piñon–juniper ecology, while predictive mapping of local areas has potential to provide products useful for land management. Areas of the southwestern United States with strong monsoonal (summer moisture) patterns appear to have been the most susceptible to historical woodland expansion, but even here the great majority of extant piñon–juniper has presettlement origins (although widely thickened and infilled historically), and old-growth structure is not uncommon in appropriate upland settings.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2024

Improved efficient physics-based computational modeling of regional wave-driven coastal flooding for reef-lined coastlines

Coastal flooding affects low-lying communities worldwide and is expected to increase with climate change, especially along reef-lined coasts, where wave-driven flooding is particularly prevalent. However, current regional modeling approaches are either insufficient or too computationally expensive to accurately assess risks in these complex environments. This study introduces and validates an improved computationally efficient and physics-based approach to compute dynamic wave-driven regional flooding on reef-lined coasts. We coupled a simplified-physics flood model (SFINCS) with a one-dimensional wave transformation model (XBeach-1D). To assess the performance of the proposed approach, we compared its results with results from a fully resolving two-dimensional wave transformation model (XBeach-2D). We applied this approach for a range of storms and sea-level rise scenarios for two contrasting reef-lined coastal geomorphologies: one low relief area and one high relief area. Our findings reveal that SFINCS coupled with XBeach-1D generates flood extents comparable to those produced by XBeach-2D, with a hit rate of 92%. However, this method tends to underpredict the flood extent of weaker, high-frequency storms and overpredict stronger, low-frequency storms. Across scenarios, our approach overpredicted the mean flood water depth, with a positive bias of 7 cm and root mean square difference of 15 cm. Offering approximately 100 times greater computational efficiency than its two-dimensional XBeach counterpart, this flood modeling technique is recommended for wave-driven flood modeling in scenarios with high computational demands, such as modeling numerous scenarios or undertaking detailed regional-scale modeling.

Journal of Marine Science & Engineering↗
USGS2026

Temperate wetlands lose climate-cooling capacity under warming

Temperate inland wetlands have long been viewed as climate regulators, with sustained CO₂ sequestration offsetting continuous CH₄ emissions over centennial–millennial timescales. However, the net climatic effect of these opposing fluxes remains uncertain under anthropogenic warming as they differ in both magnitude and atmospheric lifetime. We combine 19,000 CH₄ chamber measurements from 202 temperate inland wetlands with carbon burial rates from 16 dated sediment cores in North America’s Prairie Pothole Region to estimate greenhouse gas dynamics over two centuries. Here we show that CH₄ emissions rise by ~1.39 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ over the historical period and are projected to approach 950 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ under high-forcing scenarios by 2100, while CO₂ sequestration is expected to decline by ~0.3 kg CO₂ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, driving a shift toward persistent net CO₂-equivalent source behaviour and a weakening of the long-term cooling effect that wetlands have provided under natural conditions.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2017

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission. Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [ Cervus Canadensis ] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts. Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands. Synthesis and applications . Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate risks posed by mobile disease hosts. More broadly, we demonstrate how mechanistic movement models can provide predictions of ecological conditions that are consistent with climate change but may be more extreme than has been observed historically.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2018

Hydrologic assessment of the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge

The Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (hereafter Forsythe refuge or the refuge) is situated along the central New Jersey coast and provides a mixture of freshwater and saltwater habitats for numerous bird, wildlife, and plant species. Little data and information were previously available regarding the freshwater dynamics that support the refuge’s ecosystems. In cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted an assessment of the hydrologic resources and processes in the refuge and surrounding areas to provide baseline information for evaluating restoration projects and future changes in the hydrologic system associated with climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. During spring 2015, water levels were measured at groundwater and surface-water sites in and near the Forsythe refuge. These water-level measurements, along with surface-water elevations obtained from digital elevation models, were used to construct water-table-elevation and depth-to-water maps of the refuge and surrounding areas. Water-table elevations in the refuge ranged from sea level to approximately 65 feet above sea level; in most of the refuge, the water-table elevation was within 3 feet of sea level. The water-table-elevation map indicates that the direction of shallow groundwater flow at the regional scale is generally from west to east (much of it from the northwest to the southeast), and groundwater moves downgradient from the uplands toward major groundwater discharge areas consisting of coastal streams and wetlands. The depth to water is estimated to be less than 2 feet for approximately 86 percent of the refuge, which coincides closely with the percentage of wetland area in the refuge. Depth to water in excess of 20 feet below land surface is limited to higher elevation areas of the refuge. Streamflow data collected at continuous-record streamgages and partial-record stations within the Mullica-Toms Basin were summarized. Hydrograph separation of streamflow data for eight streamgages (2004–13) reveals that base flow accounts for 68–94 percent of streamflow in basins upstream from the refuge. The high base-flow inputs underscore the importance of groundwater as a source of freshwater that supports both the streams that flow into the refuge and the hydroecology of the contributing basins. Mean annual flow typically ranged from 1.7 to 2.1 cubic feet per second per square mile at the streamgages (2004–13) and between 1.2 and 2.3 cubic feet per second per square mile at the partial-record stations (1965–2015) but was notably greater or lower than these ranges at several stations. Mean annual water budgets were estimated for multiple regions of the refuge for 2004–13 using data compiled from nearby meteorological stations and groundwater flows derived from previously calibrated groundwater-flow models. Precipitation, groundwater recharge, and evapotranspiration were estimated from available data; direct runoff was calculated as the residual component of the water balance. Groundwater recharge rates were greatest in the upland-dominated areas of the refuge with estimates of 14.4 to 18.9 inches per year, which are equivalent to 30 to 40 percent of precipitation. Groundwater recharge rates were nearly zero in the central coastal areas because these areas are major groundwater discharge zones, the water table is near land surface, the subsurface is close to saturation and cannot accept much recharge, and much of the area is underlain by thick marsh deposits likely with low permeability. Estimates of evapotranspiration varied from about 26 inches per year in the upland-dominated areas to more than 35 inches per year in the coastal wetlands, equivalent to 55–79 percent of mean annual precipitation, indicating that it is a major component of the hydrodynamics of the Forsythe refuge. On the basis of output from previously calibrated groundwater-flow models, nearly all of the groundwater exiting the surficial aquifer system in the central coastal areas of the refuge is discharged to wetlands, which highlights the importance of groundwater discharge in supporting the ecosystems of the Forsythe refuge. In the central coastal areas, horizontal flow contributes more than 90 percent of the groundwater flow to the surficial system, indicating that the upbasin areas are a substantial source of water that ultimately discharges to streams and wetlands in the refuge.

New Jersey↗
USGS2017

Annual changes in seasonal river water temperatures in the eastern and western United States

Changes in river water temperatures are anticipated to have direct effects on thermal habitat and fish population vital rates, and therefore, understanding temporal trends in water temperatures may be necessary for predicting changes in thermal habitat and how species might respond to such changes. However, many investigations into trends in water temperatures use regression methods that assume long-term monotonic changes in temperature, when in fact changes are likely to be nonmonotonic. Therefore, our objective was to highlight the need and provide an example of an analytical method to better quantify the short-term, nonmonotonic temporal changes in thermal habitat that are likely necessary to determine the effects of changing thermal conditions on fish populations and communities. To achieve this objective, this study uses Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) to examine seasonal trends in river water temperatures from sites located in the eastern and western United States, regions that have dramatically different riverine habitats and fish communities. We estimated the annual rate of change in water temperature and found little evidence of seasonal changes in water temperatures in the eastern U.S. We found more evidence of warming for river sites located in the western U.S., particularly during the fall and winter seasons. Use of DLMs provided a more detailed view of temporal dynamics in river thermal habitat compared to more traditional methods by quantifying year-to-year changes and associated uncertainty, providing managers with the information needed to adapt decision making to short-term changes in habitat conditions that may be necessary for conserving aquatic resources in the face of a changing climate.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2016

Stakeholder-led science: engaging resource managers to identify science needs for long-term management of floodplain conservation lands

Floodplains pose challenges to managers of conservation lands because of constantly changing interactions with their rivers. Although scientific knowledge and understanding of the dynamics and drivers of river-floodplain systems can provide guidance to floodplain managers, the scientific process often occurs in isolation from management. Further, communication barriers between scientists and managers can be obstacles to appropriate application of scientific knowledge. With the coproduction of science in mind, our objectives were the following: (1) to document management priorities of floodplain conservation lands, and (2) identify science needs required to better manage the identified management priorities under nonstationary conditions, i.e., climate change, through stakeholder queries and interactions. We conducted an online survey with 80 resource managers of floodplain conservation lands along the Upper and Middle Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River, USA, to evaluate management priority, management intensity, and available scientific information for management objectives and conservation targets. Management objectives with the least information available relative to priority included controlling invasive species, maintaining respectful relationships with neighbors, and managing native, nongame species. Conservation targets with the least information available to manage relative to management priority included pollinators, marsh birds, reptiles, and shore birds. A follow-up workshop and survey focused on clarifying science needs to achieve management objectives under nonstationary conditions. Managers agreed that metrics of inundation, including depth and extent of inundation, and frequency, duration, and timing of inundation would be the most useful metrics for management of floodplain conservation lands with multiple objectives. This assessment provides guidance for developing relevant and accessible science products to inform management of highly dynamic floodplain environments. Although the problems facing managers of these lands are complex, products focused on a small suite of inundation metrics were determined to be the most useful to guide the decision making process.

Upper Mississippi River, Middle Mississippi River,↗
USGS2018

On the contribution of waves to total coastal water level changes in the context of sea level rise: a response to Melet, et al. (2018)

Response to Melet, A., Meyssignac, B., Almar, R. & Le Cozannet, G. Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 234–239 (2018). In a recent paper, Melet et al.1 claim that the contribution of wind-waves to coastal sea-level rise has been under-estimated. Although we agree with the overall premise that coastal wind-wave dynamics are important when assessing the full coastal impacts of sea-level rise, we argue that the paper is misleading.

Climate Change↗
USGS2024

A synthesis of the characteristics and drivers of introduced fishes in prairie streams: Can we manage introduced harmful fishes in these dynamic environments?

Prairie streams of North America support native fishes that are adapted to the dynamic environment that characterizes these ecologically and economically important ecosystems. However, prairie streams have been altered by landscape changes that may affect the proportions of native and introduced species in fish communities. Herein, we investigate drivers of introduced fish in prairie streams, detail common introduced species and their traits and effects, investigate how climate change may alter the balance between native and introduced species, and summarize management options. Commonly introduced fishes are those with the ability to tolerate extreme variations in temperature, hydrology, and salinity and, as a result, most of the introduced fishes were native to other prairie streams within the Great Plains ecoregion. This suggests environmental extremes may act as a filter for establishment or that short-distance translocations are more common than introductions from other ecoregions. The mechanisms or extent to which introduced species affect native fishes is often assumed or understudied. Climate change may amplify environmental disturbances in ways that may favor native or introduced fishes depending on species traits and biotic interactions. Actions such as habitat modifications or disturbances may favor introduced fishes over native fishes. Research to understand the relative roles of trait preadaptation and spatial proximity of source populations in introduced species establishment could benefit future management. Moreover, patterns observed in other ecosystems may not be transferrable to prairie streams, highlighting the need to understand the context dependency of effects of introduced species.

North American Great Plains↗
USGS2019

Submarine permafrost map in the arctic modelled using 1D transient heat flux (SuPerMAP)

Offshore permafrost plays a role in the global climate system, but observations of permafrost thickness, state, and composition are limited to specific regions. The current global permafrost map shows potential offshore permafrost distribution based on bathymetry and global sea level rise. As a first‐order estimate, we employ a heat transfer model to calculate the subsurface temperature field. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka. Preindustrial submarine permafrost (i.e., cryotic sediment), modeled at 12.5‐km spatial resolution, lies beneath almost 2.5 ×10 6 km 2 of the Arctic shelf. Our simple modeling approach results in estimates of distribution of cryotic sediment that are similar to the current global map and recent seismically delineated permafrost distributions for the Beaufort and Kara seas, suggesting that sea level is a first‐order determinant for submarine permafrost distribution. Ice content and sediment thermal conductivity are also important for determining rates of permafrost thickness change. The model provides a consistent circumarctic approach to map submarine permafrost and to estimate the dynamics of permafrost in the past.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗