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At least 1,225 records · Page 68Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Climatically driven displacement on the Eglington fault, Las Vegas, Nevada

The Eglington fault is one of several intrabasinal faults in the Las Vegas Valley, Nevada and is the only one recognized as a source for significant earthquakes. Its broad warp displaces late Pleistocene paleo-spring deposits of the Las Vegas Formation, which record hydrologic fluctuations that occurred in response to millennial and submillennial-scale climate oscillations throughout the late Quaternary. The sediments allow us to constrain the timing of displacement on the Eglington fault and identify hydrologic changes that are temporally coincident with that event. The fault warps deposits that represent widespread marshes that filled the valley between 31.7 and 27.6 ka. These marshes desiccated abruptly in response to warming and groundwater lowering during Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events 4 and 3, resulting in the formation of a pervasive, hard carbonate cap by 27.0 ka. Vertical offset by as much as 4.2 meters occurred after the cap hardened, and most likely after younger marshes desiccated irreversibly due to a sudden depression of the water table during D-O 2, beginning at 23.3 ka. The timing of displacement is further constrained to before 19.5 ka as evidenced by undeformed spring deposits that are inset into the incised topography of the warp. Coulomb stress calculations validate the hypothesis that the significant groundwater decline during D-O 2 triggered fault displacement through unloading of vertical stress of the water column. The synchroneity of this abrupt hydrologic change and warping on the Eglington fault suggests that climatically modulated tectonics operated in the Las Vegas Valley during the late Quaternary.

Nevada↗
USGS2003

Evolution of CAM and C 4 carbon-concentrating mechanisms

Mechanisms for concentrating carbon around the Rubisco enzyme, which drives the carbon-reducing steps in photosynthesis, are widespread in plants; in vascular plants they are known as crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and C 4 photosynthesis. CAM is common in desert succulents, tropical epiphytes, and aquatic plants and is characterized by nighttime fixation of CO2. The proximal selective factor driving the evolution of this CO2-concentrating pathway is low daytime CO2, which results from the unusual reverse stomatal behavior of terrestrial CAM species or from patterns of ambient CO2 availability for aquatic CAM species. In terrestrials the ultimate selective factor is water stress that has selected for increased water use efficiency. In aquatics the ultimate selective factor is diel fluctuations in CO2 availability for palustrine species and extreme oligotrophic conditions for lacustrine species. C4 photosynthesis is based on similar biochemistry but carboxylation steps are spatially separated in the leaf rather than temporally as in CAM. This biochemical pathway is most commonly associated with a specialized leaf anatomy known as Kranz anatomy; however, there are exceptions. The ultimate selective factor driving the evolution of this pathway is excessively high photorespiration that inhibits normal C3 photosynthesis under high light and high temperature in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. CAM is an ancient pathway that likely has been present since the Paleozoic era in aquatic species from shallow-water palustrine habitats. While atmospheric CO2 levels have undoubtedly affected the evolution of terrestrial plant carbon-concentrating mechanisms, there is reason to believe that past atmospheric changes have not played as important a selective role in the aquatic milieu since palustrine habitats today are not generally carbon sinks, and the selective factors driving aquatic CAM are autogenic. Terrestrial CAM, in contrast, is of increasing selective value under extreme water deficits, and undoubtedly, high Mesozoic CO2 levels reduced the amount of landscape perceived by plants as water limited. Late Tertiary and Quaternary reductions in atmospheric CO2, coupled with increasing seasonality, were probably times of substantial species radiation and ecological expansion for CAM plants. C4 photosynthesis occurs in only about half as many families as CAM, and three-fourths of C4 species are either grasses or sedges. Molecular phylogenies indicate C4 is a more recent innovation than CAM and that it originated in the mid-Tertiary, 20–30 Ma, although some data support an earlier origin. While the timing of the origin of C4 remains controversial, the nearly explosive increase in C4 species is clearly documented in the late Miocene, 4–7 Ma. Increasing seasonality has been widely suggested as an important climatic stimulus for this C4 expansion. Alternatively, based on models of photosynthetic quantum yield at different temperatures and CO2 concentration, it has been hypothesized that the late Miocene C4 expansion resulted from declining atmospheric CO2 levels. This model is most appropriate for explaining the transition from C3 grasslands to C4 grasslands but by itself may not be sufficient to explain the more likely scenario of a late Miocene transition from C3 woodland/ savanna to C4 grasslands. A largely unexplored hypothesis is that climatic changes in late Miocene altered disturbance regimes, in particular the incidence of fires, which today are often associated with maintenance of C4 grasslands. Oceanic charcoal sediments that appear to represent Aeolian deposits from continental wildfires follow a strikingly similar pattern of explosive increase in late Miocene. Climate, CO2, and disturbance are not mutually exclusive explanations and probably all acted in concert to promote the expansion of C4 grasslands. More recently, late Quaternary changes in CO2 may have been responsible for driving major changes in the landscape distribution of C4 species. The theory is sound; however, many of the studies cited in support of this model are open to alternative interpretations, and none has eliminated climatic factors as important selective agents. CAM and C4 evolution required coupling of biochemical pathways with structural changes in photosynthetic tissues, succulence in CAM and Kranz in C4. This was apparently accomplished by piecemeal evolution beginning with mechanisms for recapturing respiratory CO2, although this need not have been so in aquatic CAM species. It has been proposed that the extreme rarity of both pathways in the same plant results from biochemical and structural incompatibilities (Sage 2002). Equally important is the fact that the selective environments are quite different, with CAM evolution thriving on stressful sites inhospitable to C3 species whereas C4 evolution has selected for rapid growth capable of outcompeting associated C3 plants.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗
USGS2015

A multi-proxy record of hydroclimate, vegetation, fire, and post-settlement impacts for a subalpine plateau, Central Rocky Mountains U.S.A

Apparent changes in vegetation distribution, fire, and other disturbance regimes throughout western North America have prompted investigations of the relative importance of human activities and climate change as potential causal mechanisms. Assessing the effects of Euro-American settlement is difficult because climate changes occur on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and require longer time perspectives than historic observations can provide. Here, we report vegetation and environmental changes over the past ~13,000 years as recorded in a sediment record from Bison Lake, a subalpine lake on a high plateau in northwestern Colorado. Results are based on multiple independent proxies, which include pollen, charcoal, and elemental geochemistry, and are compared with previously reported interpretations of hydroclimatic changes from oxygen isotope ratios. The pollen data indicate a slowly changing vegetation sequence from sagebrush steppe during the late glacial to coniferous forest through the late Holocene. The most dramatic vegetation changes of the Holocene occurred during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) with rapid replacement of conifer forest by grassland followed by an equally rapid return to conifer forest. Late Holocene vegetation responses are mirrored by changes in fire, lake biological productivity, and watershed erosion. These combined records indicate that subsequent disturbance related to Euro-American settlement, although perhaps significant, had acted upon a landscape that was already responding to MCA-LIA hydroclimatic change. Results document both rapid and long-term subalpine grassland ecosystem dynamics driven by agents of change that can be anticipated in the future and simulated by ecosystem models.

The Holocene↗
USGS2019

Earlier plant growth helps compensate for reduced carbon fixation after 13 years of warming

1. Drylands play a dominant role in global carbon cycling and are particularly vulnerable to increasing temperatures, but our understanding of how dryland ecosystems will respond to climatic change remains notably poor. Considering that the area of drylands is projected to increase 11–23% by 2100, understanding the impacts of warming on the functions and services furnished by these arid and semiarid ecosystems has numerous implications. 2.In a unique 13‐year ecosystem warming experiment in a southwestern U.S. dryland, we investigated the consequences of rising temperature on Achnatherum hymenoides , a widespread, keystone grass species on the Colorado Plateau. We tracked individual‐ and population‐level responses to identify optimal strategies that may have been masked if considering only one level of plant response. 3.We found several factors combined to affect the timing and magnitude of plant responses during the 13 th year of warming. These included large warming‐induced biomass increases for individual plants, an 8.5‐day advancement in the growing season, and strong reductions in photosynthetic rates and population cover. 4.Importantly, we observed a lack of photosynthetic acclimation and, thus, a warming‐induced down regulation of photosynthetic rates. However, these physiological responses were concurrent with warmed‐plant increases in growing season length and investment in photosynthetic surfaces, demonstrating the species' ability to balance carbon fixation limitations with warming. 5.These results, which bring together ecophysiological, phenological, reproductive, and morphological assessments of plant responses to warming, suggest that the extent of change in A. hymenoides populations will be based upon numerous adaptive responses that vary in their direction and magnitude. Plant population responses to climatic warming remain poorly resolved, particularly for Earth's drylands, and our in situ experiment assessing multiple strategies offers a novel look into a warmer world.

Utah↗
USGS2020

Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate‐adaptation planning and climate‐smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute‐based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: “persist in place” and “shift in space”. Persist‐in‐place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift‐in‐space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework's application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2011

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2017

Causal mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition: Deconstructing salinity and flooding impacts in coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: 1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, 2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and 3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a drought or a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal wetlands. Here we identify three causal mechanisms that can reconcile disparities between long-term and short-term salinity impacts on organic matter decomposition.

Ecology↗
USGS2017

Application of paleoecology to ecosystem restoration: A case study from south Florida’s estuaries

Paleoecological analyses of biotic assemblages from cores collected throughout south Florida’s estuaries indicate gradually increasing salinities over approximately the last 2000 years, consistent with rising sea level. Around the beginning of the twentieth century these gradual patterns of change began to shift, corresponding to the beginning of human alteration of the environment via canal construction, railroad construction and other land use changes. Between 1950 and 1960, at a time of significant construction of water management structures another distinctive shift in the biological assemblages occurred. Analysis of the assemblages provides essential information on long-term patterns of change in the estuaries and provides a basis for predicting future trajectories of change. Paleosalinity estimates derived from the cores are providing input to linear regression models to determine related freshwater flow into the estuaries of south Florida. These analyses are being used to help establish performance measures and targets for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration, established following an Act of Congress in 2000. Restoration of south Florida’s ecosystems is slated to be a 30–50 year effort that will require detailed knowledge of past decadal to centennial-scale changes in climate, freshwater flow and salinity. This historical perspective provides information that allows land managers to set realistic and sustainable goals for restoration, and provides insight into the potential response of south Florida’s ecosystem to various future scenarios of global change.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Influence of land use and hydrologic variability on seasonal dissolved organic carbon and nitrate export: Insights from a multi-year regional analysis for the northeastern USA

Land use/land cover (LULC) change has significant impacts on nutrient loading to aquatic systems and has been linked to deteriorating water quality globally. While many relationships between LULC and nutrient loading have been identified, characterization of the interaction between LULC, climate (specifically variable hydrologic forcing) and solute export across seasonal and interannual time scales is needed to understand the processes that determine nutrient loading and responses to change. Recent advances in high-frequency water quality sensors provide opportunities to assess these interannual relationships with sufficiently high temporal resolution to capture the unpredictable, short-term storm events that likely drive important export mechanisms for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate (NO 3 − –N). We deployed a network of in situ sensors in forested, agricultural, and urban watersheds across the northeastern United States. Using 2 years of high-frequency sensor data, we provide a regional assessment of how LULC and hydrologic variability affected the timing and magnitude of dissolved organic carbon and nitrate export, and the status of watershed fluxes as either supply or transport controlled. Analysis of annual export dynamics revealed systematic differences in the timing and magnitude of DOC and NO 3 − –N delivery among different LULC classes, with distinct regional similarities in the timing of DOC and NO 3 − –N fluxes from forested and urban watersheds. Conversely, export dynamics at agricultural sites appeared to be highly site-specific, likely driven by local agricultural practices and regulations. Furthermore, the magnitude of solute fluxes across watersheds responded strongly to interannual variability in rainfall, suggesting a high degree of hydrologic control over nutrient loading across the region. Thus, there is strong potential for climate-driven changes in regional hydrologic cycles to drive variation in the magnitude of downstream nutrient fluxes, particularly in watersheds where solute supply and/or transport has been modified.

Delaware, Rhode Island, Vermont↗
USGS2021

Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change

The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model that integrates landscape change and carbon gain-loss, to assess how projected future changes in climate and land use will influence ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under all combinations of two radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and two land use scenarios (low and high) over a 90 year timespan from 2010 to 2100. Collectively, terrestrial ecosystems of the Hawaiian Islands acted as a net carbon sink under low radiative forcing (RCP 4.5) for the entire 90 year simulation period, with low land use change further enhancing carbon sink strength. In contrast, Hawaiian terrestrial ecosystems transitioned from a net sink to a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere under high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5), with high land use accelerating this transition and exacerbating net carbon loss. A sensitivity test of the CO 2 fertilization effect on plant productivity revealed it to be a major source of uncertainty in projections of ecosystem carbon balance, highlighting the need for greater mechanistic understanding of plant productivity responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Long-term model projections such as ours that incorporate the interactive effects of land use and climate change on regional ecosystem carbon balance will be critical to evaluating the potential of ecosystem-based climate mitigation strategies.

Hawaii↗
USGS2019

Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of atmospheric rivers

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.

California↗
USGS2015

Aeolian responses to climate variability during the past century on Mesquite Lake Playa, Mojave Desert

The erosion and deposition of sediments by wind from 1901 to 2013 have created large changes in surface features of Mesquite Lake playa in the Mojave Desert. The decadal scale recurrence of sand-sheet development, migration, and merging with older dunes appears related to decadal climatic changes of drought and wetness as recorded in the precipitation history of the Mojave Desert, complemented by modeled soil-moisture index values. Historical aerial photographs, repeat land photographs, and satellite images document the presence and northward migration of a mid-20th century sand sheet that formed during a severe regional drought that coincided with a multi-decadal cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The sand sheet slowly eroded during the wetter conditions of the subsequent PDO warm phase (1977–1998) due to a lack of added sediment. Sand cohesion gradually increased in the sand sheet by seasonal additions of salt and clay and by re-precipitation of gypsum, which resulted in the wind-carving of yardangs in the receding sand sheet. Smaller yardangs were aerodynamically shaped from coppice dunes with salt-clay crusts, and larger yardangs were carved along the walls and floor of trough blowouts. Evidence of a 19th century cycle of sand-sheet formation and erosion is indicated by remnants of yardangs, photographed in 1901 and 1916, that were found buried in the mid-20th century sand sheet. Three years of erosion measurements on the playa, yardangs, and sand sheets document relatively rapid wind erosion. The playa has lowered 20 to 40 cm since the mid-20th century and a shallow deflation basin has developed since 1999. Annually, 5–10 cm of surface sediment was removed from yardang flanks by a combination of wind abrasion, deflation, and mass movement. The most effective erosional processes are wind stripping of thin crusts that form on the yardang surfaces after rain events and the slumping of sediment blocks from yardang flanks. These wind-eroded landforms persist several decades to a century before eroding away or being buried by younger sands. On Mesquite Lake playa the climatic history of alternating PDO phases of multi-decadal drought and wetness is recorded twice by the presence of yardangs formed nearly a century apart.

Mesquite Lake, Mojave Desert↗
USGS2008

Workshop summary: Physical properties of gas hydrate-bearing sediment

A wide range of particle and pore scale phenomena, often coupled, determines the macro-scale response of gas-hydrate bearing sediment to changes in mechanical, thermal, or chemical conditions. Predicting this macro-scale response is critical for applications such as optimizing the production of methane from gas-hydrate deposits, or determining the role of gas hydrates in global carbon cycling and climate change.

Fire in the Ice: NETL Methane Hydrate Newsletter↗
USGS2016

Lateral and subsurface flows impact arctic coastal plain lake water budgets

Arctic thaw lakes are an important source of water for aquatic ecosystems, wildlife, and humans. Many recent studies have observed changes in Arctic surface waters related to climate warming and permafrost thaw; however, explaining the trends and predicting future responses to warming is difficult without a stronger fundamental understanding of Arctic lake water budgets. By measuring and simulating surface and subsurface hydrologic fluxes, this work quantified the water budgets of three lakes with varying levels of seasonal drainage, and tested the hypothesis that lateral and subsurface flows are a major component of the post-snowmelt water budgets. A water budget focused only on post-snowmelt surface water fluxes (stream discharge, precipitation, and evaporation) could not close the budget for two of three lakes, even when uncertainty in input parameters was rigorously considered using a Monte Carlo approach. The water budgets indicated large, positive residuals, consistent with up to 70% of mid-summer inflows entering lakes from lateral fluxes. Lateral inflows and outflows were simulated based on three processes; supra-permafrost subsurface inflows from basin-edge polygonal ground, and exchange between seasonally drained lakes and their drained margins through runoff and evapotranspiration. Measurements and simulations indicate that rapid subsurface flow through highly conductive flowpaths in the polygonal ground can explain the majority of the inflow. Drained lakes were hydrologically connected to marshy areas on the lake margins, receiving water from runoff following precipitation and losing up to 38% of lake efflux to drained margin evapotranspiration. Lateral fluxes can be a major part of Arctic thaw lake water budgets and a major control on summertime lake water levels. Incorporating these dynamics into models will improve our ability to predict lake volume changes, solute fluxes, and habitat availability in the changing Arctic.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Experimental warming in a dryland community reduced plant photosynthesis and soil CO 2 efflux although the relationship between the fluxes remained unchanged

1. Drylands represent our planet's largest terrestrial biome and, due to their extensive area, maintain large stocks of carbon (C). Accordingly, understanding how dryland C cycling will respond to climate change is imperative for accurately forecasting global C cycling and future climate. However, it remains difficult to predict how increased temperature will affect dryland C cycling, as substantial uncertainties surround the potential responses of the two main C fluxes: plant photosynthesis and soil CO 2 efflux. In addition to a need for an improved understanding of climate effects on individual dryland C fluxes, there is also notable uncertainty regarding how climate change may influence the relationship between these fluxes. 2. To address this important knowledge gap, we measured a growing season's in situ photosynthesis, plant biomass accumulation, and soil CO 2 efflux of mature Achnatherum hymenoides (a common and ecologically important C 3 bunchgrass growing throughout western North America) exposed to ambient or elevated temperature (+2°C above ambient, warmed via infrared lamps) for three years. 3. The 2°C increase in temperature caused a significant reduction in photosynthesis, plant growth, and soil CO 2 efflux. Of important note, photosynthesis and soil respiration appeared tightly coupled and the relationship between these fluxes was not altered by the elevated temperature treatment, suggesting C fixation's strong control of both above-ground and below-ground dryland C cycling. Leaf water use efficiency was substantially increased in the elevated temperature treatment compared to the control treatment. 4. Taken together, our results suggest notable declines in photosynthesis with relatively subtle warming, reveal strong coupling between above- and below-ground C fluxes in this dryland, and highlight temperature's strong effect on fundamental components of dryland C and water cycles.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2021

Climate change scenario planning for resource stewardship at Wind Cave National Park

This report explains scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to Wind Cave National Park as the second part of a pilot project to dovetail climate change scenario planning with National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategy development. In the orientation phase, Park and regional NPS staff, other subject-matter experts, natural and cultural resource planners, and the climate change core team who led the scenario planning project identified priority resource management topics and associated climate sensitivities. Next, the climate change core team used this information to create a set of four divergent climate futures—summaries of relevant climate data from individual climate projections—to encompass the range of ways climate could change in coming decades in the park. Participants in the scenario planning workshop then developed climate futures into robust climate-resource scenarios that considered expert-elicited resource impacts and identified potential management responses. Finally, the scenario-based resource responses identified by park staff and subject matter experts were used to integrate climate-informed adaptations into resource stewardship goals and activities for the park's Resource Stewardship Strategy. This process of engaging resource managers in climate change scenario planning ensures that their management and planning decisions are informed by assessments of critical future climate uncertainties.

South Dakota↗
USGS2015

Growth of common brackish marsh macrophytes under altered hydrology and salinity regimes

Coastal marsh plants are increasingly subject to physicochemical stressors under rising sea levels, and the maintenance of marsh ecological functions can depend on the ability of individual species and communities to tolerate or adapt to altered conditions. We conducted a greenhouse experiment to identify hydrology and salinity effects on growth of three common brackish marsh macrophytes of coastal Florida, USA: Distichlis spicata , Juncus roemerianus , and Spartina bakeri . The species were potted as monocultures and exposed to three salinities (0, 15, or 28 psu) and two hydrologic conditions (saturated, tidal) over 22 months. Final stem density of J. roemerianus and S. bakeri did not differ among treatments. In D. spicata , however, stem density was lowest at 28 psu and lower in tidal compared to saturated conditions. Mean stem height of all species was lowest at 28 psu. Aboveground biomass of J. roemerianus was not affected by the treatments, but in D. spicata and S. bakeri it was lowest at 28 psu. Results indicated that J. roemerianus was the most adaptable species and may, therefore, be more resilient to climate-change driven stressors. However, plant-plant interactions such as interspecific competition and facilitation can alter the response of individual species to environmental factors.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Flow alteration-ecology relationships in Ozark Highland streams: Consequences for fish, crayfish and macroinvertebrate assemblages

We examined flow alteration-ecology relationships in benthic macroinvertebrate , fish, and crayfish assemblages in Ozark Highland streams, USA, over two years with contrasting environmental conditions, a drought year (2012) and a flood year (2013). We hypothesized that: 1) there would be temporal variation in flow alteration-ecology relationships between the two years, 2) flow alteration-ecology relationships would be stronger during the drought year vs the flood year, and 3) fish assemblages would show the strongest relationships with flow alteration. We used a quantitative richest-targeted habitat (RTH) method and a qualitative multi-habitat (QMH) method to collect macroinvertebrates at 16 USGS gaged sites during both years. We used backpack electrofishing to sample fish and crayfish at 17 sites in 2012 and 11 sites in 2013. We used redundancy analysis to relate biological response metrics, including richness, diversity, density, and community-based metrics, to flow alteration. We found temporal variation in flow alteration-ecology relationships for all taxa, and that relationships differed greatly between assemblages. We found relationships were stronger for macroinvertebrates during the drought year but not for other assemblages, and that fish assemblage relationships were not stronger than the invertebrate taxa. Magnitude of average flow, frequency of high flow, magnitude of high flow, and duration of high flow were the most important categories of flow alteration metrics across taxa. Alteration of high and average flows was more important than alteration of low flows. Of 32 important flow alteration metrics across years and assemblages, 19 were significantly altered relative to expected values. Ecological responses differed substantially between drought and flood years, and this is likely to be exacerbated with predicted climate change scenarios. Differences in flow alteration-ecology relationships among taxonomic groups and temporal variation in relationships illustrate that a complex suite of variables should be considered for effective conservation of stream communities related to flow alteration.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗