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At least 1,225 records · Page 68Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Factors promoting the recolonization of Oahu, Hawaii, by Bristle-thighed Curlews

Suitable habitat for Arctic-breeding migratory shorebirds is decreasing at their traditional wintering islands and atolls in the Central Pacific Flyway (i.e., Oceania) due to habitat degradation, reclamation, and sea-level rise. To maintain the size and resiliency of their populations, migratory shorebirds will need to expand their winter ranges by either colonizing new sites or recolonizing old sites from which they were extirpated. Bristle-thighed Curlews (Numenius tahitiensis) are long-distance migratory shorebirds that breed only in Alaska and winter across a vast region of the Central Pacific, typically on remote, unpopulated islands and atolls. Historically, Bristle-thighed Curlews were considered uncommon transients on the main Hawaiian Islands, but in the mid-1990s, curlews became regular visitors to Oahu and subsequently began wintering at the James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge on Oahu Island in Hawaii. Curlew numbers at this site grew steadily from <5 birds in the mid-1990s to an estimated 126 winter residents (95%CI 108–147) in 2013–2014. Timing of the recolonization event coincided with the establishment of a fenced pond complex that was managed for endangered waterbirds by maintaining areas of shallow water and low vegetation. High rates of apparent annual survival exhibited by adults and subadults (0.86–0.95) confirmed the suitability of the Refuge to curlews. Our results suggest that curlews in Oceania can naturally recolonize wintering islands, a trait that may be key to the survival of this species of conservation concern in an era of rising sea levels.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Prioritizing habitats based on abundance and distribution of molting waterfowl in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A) encompasses more than 9.5 million hectares of federally managed land on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, where it supports a diversity of wildlife, including millions of migratory birds. Within the NPR-A, Teshekpuk Lake and the surrounding area provide important habitat for migratory birds and this area has been designated by the Bureau of Land Management as the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (TLSA) because numerous waterfowl species use the area for breeding and molting. Our goal was to provide a mechanism for land managers to assess relative value of areas for molting waterfowl. This approach was based on the population densities of Pacific black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) and cackling geese ( Branta hutchinsii ) and pre-defined thresholds for the minimum fraction of the population contained within selected areas. Prioritizations were based on long-term records of population density combined with global-positioning system data to reveal small-scale patterns of habitat use. The highest population density of the Pacific black brant was found along the Beaufort Sea coast on the eastern edge of the study area, whereas cackling geese were somewhat more widely distributed. Depending on the criteria used for prioritization and width of protective buffers placed around selected units, 52–85% of the Goose Molting Area was identified as high-priority area. The effectiveness of this approach to protection of molting birds assumes that buffers around high value units are wide enough to provide adequate protection from disturbance related to oil and gas development.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Observed and forecasted changes in land use by polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 1985–2040

Monitoring changes in the distribution of large carnivores is important for managing human safety and supporting conservation. Throughout much of their range, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are increasingly using terrestrial habitats in response to Arctic sea ice decline. Their increased presence in coastal areas has implications for bear-human conflict, inter-species interactions, and polar bear health and survival. We examined observed trends in land use over three decades by polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) where bears have traditionally spent most of the year on the sea ice. Using data from 408 adult females fitted with satellite radio-collars, we examined trends in the annual proportion of bears coming onshore (hereafter referred to as “percent of bears”) during the summer for ≥21 days, arrival and departure dates, duration spent onshore and relationships with sea ice metrics. We then estimated future land use through 2040 by extrapolating trends and by combining observed relationships between land use and sea ice with projections of future sea ice from an ensemble of earth system models. The observed percent of bears summering onshore and their duration onshore was correlated with the percent of open water that occurred within their population’s range between July and October. As sea ice declined, the percent of bears summering onshore increased from ~5 to 30% in the SB and ~10 to 50% in the CS and duration onshore increased by >30 days to 60–70 days in both populations. Using a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and adjustments for faster than forecasted sea ice loss we estimated that 50-62% of SB and 79-88% of CS bears will spend 90–108 and 110–126 days onshore during summer in the SB and CS, respectively, by 2040. Sea ice projections varied little between greenhouse gas emission scenarios prior to 2040 but diverged thereafter. Observed and forecasted increases in polar bear land occupancy puts more bears in proximity to human activities and settlements for longer durations while extending the lack of access to their primary prey. Because human conflict is one of the primary factors affecting the conservation of large carnivores worldwide, mitigation of bear-human interactions on land will be an increasingly important component of polar bear conservation.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Soil carbon distribution in Alaska in relation to soil-forming factors

The direction and magnitude of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes in response to climate change remain unclear and depend on the spatial distribution of SOC across landscapes. Uncertainties regarding the fate of SOC are greater in high-latitude systems where data are sparse and the soils are affected by sub-zero temperatures. To address these issues in Alaska, a first-order assessment of data gaps and spatial distributions of SOC was conducted from a recently compiled soil carbon database. Temperature and landform type were the dominant controls on SOC distribution for selected ecoregions. Mean SOC pools (to a depth of 1-m) varied by three, seven and ten-fold across ecoregion, landform, and ecosystem types, respectively. Climate interactions with landform type and SOC were greatest in the uplands. For upland SOC there was a six-fold non-linear increase in SOC with latitude (i.e., temperature) where SOC was lowest in the Intermontane Boreal compared to the Arctic Tundra and Coastal Rainforest. Additionally, in upland systems mineral SOC pools decreased as climate became more continental, suggesting that the lower productivity, higher decomposition rates and fire activity, common in continental climates, interacted to reduce mineral SOC. For lowland systems, in contrast, these interactions and their impacts on SOC were muted or absent making SOC in these environments more comparable across latitudes. Thus, the magnitudes of SOC change across temperature gradients were non-uniform and depended on landform type. Additional factors that appeared to be related to SOC distribution within ecoregions included stand age, aspect, and permafrost presence or absence in black spruce stands. Overall, these results indicate the influence of major interactions between temperature-controlled decomposition and topography on SOC in high-latitude systems. However, there remains a need for more SOC data from wetlands and boreal-region permafrost soils, especially at depths > 1 m in order to fully understand the effects of climate on soil carbon in Alaska.

Geoderma↗

USGS2018

Decadal topographic change in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Thermokarst subsidence, glacier thinning, and transfer of water storage from the cryosphere to the hydrosphere

Recent local-scale observations of glaciers, streams, and soil surfaces in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica (MDV) have documented evidence for rapid ice loss, glacial thinning, and ground surface subsidence associated with melting of ground ice. To evaluate the extent, magnitude, and location of decadal-scale landscape change in the MDV, we collected airborne lidar elevation data in 2014–2015 and compared these data to a 2001–2002 airborne lidar campaign. This regional assessment of elevation change spans the recent acceleration of warming and melting observed by long-term meteorological and ecosystem response experiments, allowing us to assess the response of MDV surfaces to warming and potential thawing feedbacks. We find that locations of thermokarst subsidence are strongly associated with the presence of excess ground ice and with proximity to surface or shallow subsurface (active layer) water. Subsidence occurs across soil types and landforms, in low-lying, low-slope areas with impeded drainage and also high on steep valley walls. Glacier thinning is widespread and is associated with the growth of fine-scale roughness. Pond levels are rising in most closed-basin lakes in the MDV, across all microclimate zones. These observations highlight the continued importance of insolation-driven melting in the MDV. The regional melt pattern is consistent with an overall transition of water storage from the local cryosphere (glaciers, permafrost) to the hydrosphere (closed basin lakes and ponds as well as the Ross Sea). We interpret this regional melting pattern to reflect a transition to Arctic and alpine-style, hydrologically mediated permafrost and glacial melt.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2015

Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event - Marine Isotope Stage M2

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58 Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature of warm climates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~ 3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausible M2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude the possibility of the existence of larger ice masses during M2 in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant ice masses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2011

Genetic characterisation of Toxoplasma gondii in wildlife from North America revealed widespread and high prevalence of the fourth clonal type

Little is known of the genetic diversity of Toxoplasma gondii circulating in wildlife. In the present study wild animals, from the USA were examined for T. gondii infection. Tissues of naturally exposed animals were bioassayed in mice for isolation of viable parasites. Viable T. gondii was isolated from 31 animals including, to our knowledge for the first time, from a bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ), five gray wolves ( Canis lupus ), a woodrat ( Neotoma micropus) , and five Arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus) . Additionally, 66 T. gondii isolates obtained previously, but not genetically characterised, were revived in mice. Toxoplasma gondii DNA isolated from these 97 samples (31 + 66) was characterised using 11 PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers (SAG1, 5′- and 3′-SAG2, alt.SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, c22–8, c29–2, L358, PK1 and Apico). A total of 95 isolates were successfully genotyped. In addition to clonal Types II, and III, 12 different genotypes were found. These genotype data were combined with 74 T. gondii isolates previously characterised from wildlife from North America and a composite data set of 169 isolates comprised 22 genotypes, including clonal Types II, III and 20 atypical genotypes. Phylogenetic network analysis showed limited diversity with dominance of a recently designated fourth clonal type (Type 12) in North America, followed by the Type II and III lineages. These three major lineages together accounted for 85% of strains in North America. The Type 12 lineage includes previously identified Type A and X strains from sea otters. This study revealed that the Type 12 lineage accounts for 46.7% (79/169) of isolates and is dominant in wildlife of North America. No clonal Type I strain was identified among these wildlife isolates. These results suggest that T. gondii strains in wildlife from North America have limited diversity, with the occurrence of only a few major clonal types.

International Journal for Parasitology↗

USGS2021

At-sea feeding ecology of parasitic lampreys

This paper synthesizes information on the at-sea ecology of ten anadromous lampreys, with emphasis on trophic ecology. The at-sea ecology of these lampreys concerns the juvenile stage, in which growth is most rapid. Anadromous lampreys can be categorized into four groups, based on feeding modalities: 1) scavenger (Caspian lamprey, Caspiomyzon wagneri ); 2) parasite-predator (Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus ); 3) predators (western river lamprey, Lampetra ayresii ; European river lamprey, L. fluviatilis ; Arctic lamprey, Lethenteron camtschaticum ; pouched lamprey, Geotria australis ; and Argentinian pouched lamprey, G. macrostoma ); and 4) parasites (sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus ; Chilean lamprey, Mordacia lapicida ; and short-headed lamprey, M. mordax ). This paper discusses direct evidence for lamprey feeding ecology, as observed through lamprey-induced wounds on hosts and prey, and lamprey attachments on hosts and prey; and indirect evidence for feeding ecology, via analyses of fatty acids, stable isotopes, contaminants, and bioenergetics modelling. A part of the information presented on feeding ecology is from landlocked sea lamprey, and in some instances this information can be generalizable to anadromous populations. For most anadromous lampreys, but particularly for Southern Hemisphere taxa, little is known about their feeding ecology at sea. Duration of the trophic marine phase and habitat use are still subjects of debate. Species identified as lamprey hosts can be demersal or pelagic, possibly reflecting marine habitat preferences. To unlock understanding of the marine phase of anadromous lampreys, direct evidence of feeding ecology should be coupled with natural (i.e., biomarkers) and artificial (e.g., biologgers) markers to identify habitat use, movement patterns and dispersal.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2009

Trends in streamflow in the Yukon River Basin from 1944 to 2005 and the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Streamflow characteristics in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska and Canada have changed from 1944 to 2005, and some of the change can be attributed to the two most recent modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Seasonal, monthly, and annual stream discharge data from 21 stations in the Yukon River Basin were analyzed for trends over the entire period of record, generally spanning 4-6 decades, and examined for differences between the two most recent modes of the PDO: cold-PDO (1944-1975) and warm-PDO (1976-2005) subsets. Between 1944 and 2005, average winter and April flow increased at 15 sites. Observed winter flow increases during the cold-PDO phase were generally limited to sites in the Upper Yukon River Basin. Positive trends in winter flow during the warm-PDO phase broadened to include stations in the Middle and Lower Yukon River drainage basins. Increases in winter streamflow most likely result from groundwater input enhanced by permafrost thawing that promotes infiltration and deeper subsurface flow paths. Increased April flow may be attributed to a combination of greater baseflow (from groundwater increases), earlier spring snowmelt and runoff, and increased winter precipitation, depending on location. Calculated deviations from long-term mean monthly discharges indicate below-average flow in the winter months during the cold PDO and above-average flow in the winter months during the warm PDO. Although not as strong a signal, results also support the reverse response during the summer months: above-average flow during the cold PDO and below-average flow during the warm PDO. Changes in the summer flows are likely an indirect consequence of the PDO, resulting from earlier spring snowmelt runoff and also perhaps increased summer infiltration and storage in a deeper active layer. Annual discharge has remained relatively unchanged in the Yukon River Basin, but a few glacier-fed rivers demonstrate positive trends, which can be attributed to enhanced glacier melting. A positive trend in annual flow during the warm PDO near the mouth of the Yukon River suggests that small increases in flow throughout the Yukon River Basin have resulted in an additive effect manifested in the downstream-most streamflow station. Many of the identified changes in streamflow patterns in the Yukon River Basin show a correlation to the PDO regime shift. This work highlights the importance of considering proximate climate forcings as well as global climate change when assessing hydrologic changes in the Arctic.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2017

Analytical validation of a reverse transcriptase droplet digital PCR (RT-ddPCR) for quantitative detection of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is an important pathogen of salmonid fishes. A validated universal reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assay that can quantify levels of IHNV in fish tissues has been previously reported. In the present study, we adapted the published set of IHNV primers and probe for use in a reverse-transcriptase droplet digital PCR (RT-ddPCR) assay for quantification of the virus in fish tissue samples. The RT-ddPCR and RT-qPCR assays detected 13 phylogenetically diverse IHNV strains, but neither assay produced detectable amplification when RNA from other fish viruses was used. The RT-ddPCR assay had a limit of detection (LOD) equating to 2.2 plaque forming units (PFU)/μl while the LOD for the RT-qPCR was 0.2 PFU/μl. Good agreement (69.4–100%) between assays was observed when used to detect IHNV RNA in cell culture supernatant and tissues from IHNV infected rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and arctic char ( Salvelinus alpinus ). Estimates of RNA copy number produced by the two assays were significantly correlated but the RT-qPCR consistently produced higher estimates than the RT-ddPCR. The analytical properties of the N gene RT-ddPCR test indicated that this method may be useful to assess IHNV RNA copy number for research and diagnostic purposes. Future work is needed to establish the within and between laboratory diagnostic performance of the RT-ddPCR assay.

Journal of Virological Methods↗

USGS2011

Pore fluid geochemistry from the Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope

The BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well was drilled and cored from 606.5 to 760.1 m on the North Slope of Alaska, to evaluate the occurrence, distribution and formation of gas hydrate in sediments below the base of the ice-bearing permafrost. Both the dissolved chloride and the isotopic composition of the water co-vary in the gas hydrate-bearing zones, consistent with gas hydrate dissociation during core recovery, and they provide independent indicators to constrain the zone of gas hydrate occurrence. Analyses of chloride and water isotope data indicate that an observed increase in salinity towards the top of the cored section reflects the presence of residual fluids from ion exclusion during ice formation at the base of the permafrost layer. These salinity changes are the main factor controlling major and minor ion distributions in the Mount Elbert Well. The resulting background chloride can be simulated with a one-dimensional diffusion model, and the results suggest that the ion exclusion at the top of the cored section reflects deepening of the permafrost layer following the last glaciation (∼100 kyr), consistent with published thermal models. Gas hydrate saturation values estimated from dissolved chloride agree with estimates based on logging data when the gas hydrate occupies more than 20% of the pore space; the correlation is less robust at lower saturation values. The highest gas hydrate concentrations at the Mount Elbert Well are clearly associated with coarse-grained sedimentary sections, as expected from theoretical calculations and field observations in marine and other arctic sediment cores.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Permafrost-associated natural gas hydrate occurrences on the Alaska North Slope

In the 1960s Russian scientists made what was then a bold assertion that gas hydrates should occur in abundance in nature. Since this early start, the scientific foundation has been built for the realization that gas hydrates are a global phenomenon, occurring in permafrost regions of the arctic and in deep water portions of most continental margins worldwide. In 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey made the first systematic assessment of the in-place natural gas hydrate resources of the United States. That study suggested that the amount of gas in the gas hydrate accumulations of northern Alaska probably exceeds the volume of known conventional gas resources on the North Slope. Researchers have long speculated that gas hydrates could eventually become a producible energy resource, yet technical and economic hurdles have historically made gas hydrate development a distant goal. This view began to change in recent years with the realization that this unconventional resource could be developed with existing conventional oil and gas production technology. One of the most significant developments was the completion of the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well on the Alaska North Slope, which along with the Mallik project in Canada, have for the first time allowed the rational assessment of gas hydrate production technology and concepts. Almost 40 years of gas hydrate research in northern Alaska has confirmed the occurrence of at least two large gas hydrate accumulations on the North Slope. We have also seen in Alaska the first ever assessment of how much gas could be technically recovered from gas hydrates. However, significant technical concerns need to be further resolved in order to assess the ultimate impact of gas hydrate energy resource development in northern Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope: Overview of scientific and technical program

The Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well was drilled within the Alaska North Slope (ANS) Milne Point Unit (MPU) from February 3 to 19, 2007. The well was conducted as part of a Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) project co-sponsored since 2001 by BP Exploration (Alaska), Inc. (BPXA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to help determine whether ANS gas hydrate can become a technically and commercially viable gas resource. Early in the effort, regional reservoir characterization and reservoir simulation modeling studies indicated that up to 0.34 trillion cubic meters (tcm; 12 trillion cubic feet, tcf) gas may be technically recoverable from 0.92 tcm (33 tcf) gas-in-place within the Eileen gas hydrate accumulation near industry infrastructure within ANS MPU, Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU), and Kuparuk River Unit (KRU) areas. To further constrain these estimates and to enable the selection of a test site for further data acquisition, the USGS reprocessed and interpreted MPU 3D seismic data provided by BPXA to delineate 14 prospects containing significant highly-saturated gas hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs. The “Mount Elbert” site was selected to drill a stratigraphic test well to acquire a full suite of wireline log, core, and formation pressure test data. Drilling results and data interpretation confirmed pre-drill predictions and thus increased confidence in both the prospect interpretation methods and in the wider ANS gas hydrate resource estimates. The interpreted data from the Mount Elbert well provide insight into and reduce uncertainty of key gas hydrate-bearing reservoir properties, enable further refinement and validation of the numerical simulation of the production potential of both MPU and broader ANS gas hydrate resources, and help determine viability of potential field sites for future extended term production testing. Drilling and data acquisition operations demonstrated that gas hydrate scientific research programs can be safely, effectively, and efficiently conducted within ANS infrastructure. The program success resulted in a technical team recommendation to project management to drill and complete a long-term production test within the area of existing ANS infrastructure. If approved by stakeholders, this long-term test would build on prior arctic research efforts to better constrain the potential gas rates and volumes that could be produced from gas hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Comparison of the physical and geotechnical properties of gas-hydrate-bearing sediments from offshore India and other gas-hydrate-reservoir systems

The sediment characteristics of hydrate-bearing reservoirs profoundly affect the formation, distribution, and morphology of gas hydrate. The presence and type of gas, porewater chemistry, fluid migration, and subbottom temperature may govern the hydrate formation process, but it is the host sediment that commonly dictates final hydrate habit, and whether hydrate may be economically developed. In this paper, the physical properties of hydrate-bearing regions offshore eastern India (Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins) and the Andaman Islands, determined from Expedition NGHP-01 cores, are compared to each other, well logs, and published results of other hydrate reservoirs. Properties from the hydrate-free Kerala-Konkan basin off the west coast of India are also presented. Coarser-grained reservoirs (permafrost-related and marine) may contain high gas-hydrate-pore saturations, while finer-grained reservoirs may contain low-saturation disseminated or more complex gas-hydrates, including nodules, layers, and high-angle planar and rotational veins. However, even in these fine-grained sediments, gas hydrate preferentially forms in coarser sediment or fractures, when present. The presence of hydrate in conjunction with other geologic processes may be responsible for sediment porosity being nearly uniform for almost 500 m off the Andaman Islands. Properties of individual NGHP-01 wells and regional trends are discussed in detail. However, comparison of marine and permafrost-related Arctic reservoirs provides insight into the inter-relationships and common traits between physical properties and the morphology of gas-hydrate reservoirs regardless of location. Extrapolation of properties from one location to another also enhances our understanding of gas-hydrate reservoir systems. Grain size and porosity effects on permeability are critical, both locally to trap gas and regionally to provide fluid flow to hydrate reservoirs. Index properties corroborate more advanced consolidation and triaxial strength test results and can be used for predicting behavior in other NGHP-01 regions. Pseudo-overconsolidation is present near the seafloor and is underlain by underconsolidation at depth at some NGHP-01 locations.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS2011

Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3

It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement. In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data–model anomaly exceeds 2 °C. 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from + 1.5 °C to >+ 6 °C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land–sea mask used in the model. Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data–model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST estimates from data-sparse and regionally important areas will greatly enhance our ability to judge model performance.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2015

Paleoceanographic, and paleoclimatic constraints on the global Eocene diatom and silicoflagellate record

Eocene diatom and silicoflagellate biostratigraphy are summarized and correlated with the most recent geologic time scale as well as with the global oxygen isotope and eustatic sea level curves. The global distribution of Eocene diatom/silicoflagellate-bearing sediments varies considerably, reflecting changing oceanic gateways and paleoceanography with changing patterns that are punctuated by four major depositional events. Event 1 (~ 49 million years ago, Ma), at the end of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), saw the cessation of diatom/silicoflagellate deposition in epicontinental regions of the North Sea region and in the northern Russia and the onset of biosilica deposition in the Arctic. Event 2 (~ 46 Ma), which coincided with intensification of the Middle Eocene cooling trend, marked the widespread expansion of diatom/silicoflagellate deposition in both the North and South Atlantic. A shift of diatom/silicoflagellate deposition from the Atlantic to the Pacific began at Event 3, at the end of the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) (~ 40 Ma), that was likely tied to the initial opening of the Drake Passage between Antarctica and South America. Event 4 (~ 39 Ma) coincided with a major sea level fall and a widespread deep-sea hiatus in the latest Middle Eocene. Late Eocene diatom/silicoflagellate deposition became more concentrated in middle-to-high latitude regions and coastal upwelling regions, particularly in the Pacific Ocean. Tabulation of the first and last occurrences of 132 biostratigraphically-important diatoms suggests increased species turnover during the latest Paleocene to earliest Eocene that may be in part due to a monographic effect. An increasing rate of evolution of new diatom species between ~ 46 and 43 Ma and after ~ 40 Ma coincides respectively with the widespread expansion of diatom deposition in the Atlantic and with an increased pole-to-equator thermal gradient that witnessed the expansion of diatoms in high latitude oceans and coastal upwelling settings.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2023

A 1300-year microfaunal record from the Beaufort Sea shelf indicates exceptional climate-related environmental changes over the last two centuries

The environments of Arctic Ocean nearshore areas experience high intra- and inter-annual variability, making it difficult to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic warming. However, a sediment record from the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea allowed us to reconstruct the impacts of climate and environmental changes over the last 1300 years along the northern Yukon coast, Canada. The coring site (PG2303; 69.513°N, 138.895°W; water depth 32 m) is located in the Herschel Basin, where high sedimentation rates (0.1–0.5 cm a −1 ) allowed analyses at sub-centennial to decadal resolutions. Benthic foraminiferal, ostracod, and tintinnid assemblages, as well as the stable isotope composition of the foraminifera Elphidium clavatum and Cassidulina reniforme were used as paleoclimatic and ecological indicators, while the age model was based on the combined radiometric data of 14 C, 210 Pb and 137 Cs . From ca 700 to 1050 CE, our data suggest penetration of offshore shelf-break waters inferred by the dominance of C. reniforme followed by the relatively abundant Triloculina trihedra in the foraminiferal assemblages as both species are associated with stable saline conditions. Afterwards, the occurrence of ostracods Kotoracythere arctoborealis and Normanicythere leioderma suggests influx of Pacific-sourced waters until ca. 1150 CE. From ∼1150–1650 CE, persistent frigid waters, limited sediment supply, and low abundances of microfossils suggest cold conditions with pervasive annual sea-ice cover that may have restricted upwelling of oceanic waters. After ∼1800 CE, the co-occurrence of Tintinnopsis fimbriata and bacterial/complex organic carbon feeder foraminifera ( Quinqueloculina stalkeri , Textularia earlandi and Stetsonia horvathi ), suggest an increased influence of freshwater rich in particulate organic matter, which may be related to the spreading of the Mackenzie River plume and/or increased coastal permafrost erosion during longer ice-free seasons. Based on these proxy data, the shift at ∼1800 CE marks the onset of regional warming, which further intensified after ∼1955 CE, likely in response to the anthropogenic forcing.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2013

Lateglacial and Holocene climate, disturbance and permafrost peatland dynamics on the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska

Northern peatlands have accumulated large carbon (C) stocks, acting as a long-term atmospheric C sink since the last deglaciation. How these C-rich ecosystems will respond to future climate change, however, is still poorly understood. Furthermore, many northern peatlands exist in regions underlain by permafrost, adding to the challenge of projecting C balance under changing climate and permafrost dynamics. In this study, we used a paleoecological approach to examine the effect of past climates and local disturbances on vegetation and C accumulation at a peatland complex on the southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska over the past ∼15 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP). We analyzed two cores about 30 m apart, NL10-1 (from a permafrost peat plateau) and NL10-2 (from an adjacent thermokarst collapse-scar bog), for peat organic matter (OM), C accumulation rates, macrofossil, pollen and grain size analysis. A wet rich fen occurred during the initial stages of peatland development at the thermokarst site (NL10-2). The presence of tree pollen from Picea spp. and Larix laricinia at 13.5–12.1 ka indicates a warm regional climate, corresponding with the well-documented Bølling–Allerød warm period. A cold and dry climate interval at 12.1–11.1 ka is indicated by the disappearance of tree pollen and increase in Poaceae pollen and an increase in woody material, likely representing a local expression of the Younger Dryas (YD) event. Following the YD, the warm Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) is characterized by the presence of Populus pollen, while the presence of Sphagnum spp. and increased C accumulation rates suggest high peatland productivity under a warm climate. Toward the end of the HTM and throughout the mid-Holocene a wet climate-induced several major flooding disturbance events at 10 ka, 8.1 ka, 6 ka, 5.4 ka and 4.7 ka, as evidenced by decreases in OM, and increases in coarse sand abundance and aquatic fossils (algae Chara and water fleas Daphnia ). The initial peatland at permafrost site (NL10-1) is characterized by rapid C accumulation (66 g C m −2 yr −1 ), high OM content and a peak in Sphagnum spp. at 5.8–4.6 ka, suggesting the lack of permafrost. A transition to extremely low C accumulation rates of 6.3 g C m −2 yr −1 after 4.5 ka at this site suggests the onset of permafrost aggradation, likely in response to Neoglacial climate cooling as documented across the circum-Arctic region. A similar decrease in C accumulation rates also occurred at non-permafrost site NL10-2. Time-weighted C accumulation rates are 21.8 g C m −2 yr −1 for core NL10-1 during the last ∼6.5 ka and 14.8 g C m −2 yr −1 for core NL10-2 during the last ∼15 ka. Evidence from peat-core analysis and historical aerial photographs shows an abrupt increase in Sphagnum spp. and decrease in area of thermokarst lakes over the last century, suggesting major changes in hydrology and ecosystem structure, likely due to recent climate warming. Our results show that the thermokarst–permafrost complex was much more dynamic with high C accumulation rates under warmer climates in the past, while permafrost was stabilized and C accumulation slowed down following the Neoglacial cooling in the late Holocene. Furthermore, permafrost presence at local scales is controlled by both regional climate and site-specific factors, highlighting the challenge in projecting responses of permafrost peatlands and their C dynamics to future climate change.

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