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USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗

USGS2015

Effects of elevated water temperature on physiological responses in adult freshwater mussels

Freshwater mussels (order Unionoida) face multiple environmental stressors, which pose serious conservation challenges to this diverse assemblage of aquatic invertebrates. Of these stressors, elevated water temperature from global climate change and other anthropogenic sources may be the most ubiquitous and could be placing many mussel populations dangerously close to their thermal maxima. We tested the hypothesis that elevated water temperatures (20, 25, 30 and 35 °C) adversely affected physiological responses in adults of four North American species of mussels ( Amblema plicata , Elliptio complanata, Fusconaia flava and Lampsilis cardium) in 21-d laboratory tests. Oxygen consumption rates were directly affected by temperature in E. complanata and L. cardium , and indirectly affected by temperature in A. plicata and F. flava . Rates of O 2 consumption were generally positively correlated with water temperature. Ammonium excretion rates varied significantly with temperature in E. complanata and generally increased with temperature. The amount of O 2 consumed relative to nitrogen excreted (O : N ratio), varied significantly with temperature in A. plicata , E. complanata and F. flava . The tissue condition index varied among temperatures and species. These data suggest that elevated temperatures can alter metabolic rates in native mussels and may decrease the amount of energy that is available for key biological processes, such as survival, growth and reproduction.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2023

Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout recovery in Yellowstone Lake: Complex interactions among invasive species suppression, disease, and climate change

In Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming, the largest inland population of nonhybridized Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri , hereafter Cutthroat Trout, declined throughout the 2000s because of predation from invasive Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush , drought, and whirling disease Myxobolus cerebralis . To maintain ecosystem function and conserve Cutthroat Trout, a Lake Trout gill netting suppression program was established in 1995, decreasing Lake Trout abundance and biomass. Yet, the response of Cutthroat Trout to varying Lake Trout suppression levels, collectively with the influence of disease and climate, is unknown. We developed an ecosystem model (calibrated to historical data) to forecast (2020–2050) whether Cutthroat Trout would achieve recovery benchmarks given disease, varying suppression effort, and climate change. Lake Trout suppression influenced Cutthroat Trout recovery; current suppression effort levels resulted in Cutthroat Trout recovering from historical lows in the early 2000s. However, Cutthroat Trout did not achieve conservation benchmarks when incorporating the influence of disease and climate. Therefore, the National Park Service intends to incorporate age-specific abundance, spawner biomass, or both in conservation benchmarks to provide better indication of how management actions and environmental conditions influence Cutthroat Trout. Our results illustrate how complex interactions within an ecosystem must be simultaneously considered to establish and achieve realistic benchmarks for species of conservation concern.

Wyoming↗

USGS1992

Effects of climatic change and climatic variability on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin

The Thornthwaite moisture index is useful as an indicator of the supply of water in an area relative to the demand under prevailing climatic conditions. This study examines the effects of long-term changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin. Temperature and precipitation estimates for doubled-CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index for steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions and for gradual changes from present to doubled-CO2 conditions. Results of the study indicate that temperature and precipitation under doubled-CO2 conditions will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying significantly drier conditions in the Delaware River basin than currently exist. The amount of decrease depends, however, on the GCM climatic-change scenario used. The results also indicate that future changes in the moisture index will be partly masked by natural year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation. ?? 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2024

The use of conceptual ecological models to identify critical data and uncertainties to support numerical modeling: The northern Gulf of Mexico eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica example

Objective Increasing reliance on numerical simulation models to help inform management and restoration choices benefits from careful consideration of critical early steps in model development. Along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fulfills important ecological and economic roles. Using the eastern oyster as an example, we draw on several recent frameworks outlining best practices for model development and application for restoration, conservation, and management. Methods We identify priority model questions, outline a conceptual ecological model (CEM) to guide numerical model development, and use this framework to identify uncertainties and research needs. Result The CEM uses a nested design, identifying explicit vital rates, processes, attributes, and outcomes for the species (oysters), population, and metapopulation (i.e., network of populations) levels in response to drivers of species, population, and metapopulation changes and changing environmental factors. Most management actions related to oyster restoration and harvest affect population attributes directly, but many coastal management actions and changes (i.e., climate change and coastal and water resource engineering) impact environmental factors that alter vital rates and attributes of oysters, populations, and metapopulations. Conclusion Investment in studies targeting individual oyster‐ and population‐level multi‐stressor responses (filtration, respiration, growth, and reproduction) and improving hydrodynamic and environmental models targeting drivers that influence metapopulation vital rates and attributes (i.e., connectivity and substrate persistence) would contribute to reducing uncertainties. Development of numerical models covering the entire oyster life cycle and connectivity of populations using hydrodynamic models of current and predicted conditions to provide key abiotic and biotic factors influencing larval movement, recruitment, and on‐reef oyster vital rates would assist in balancing the goals of conservation, restoration, and fisheries management of this foundational estuarine species.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

USGS2025

Macroinvertebrate community responses to disturbance in a fragmented river with contrasting legacies of alteration

Flow is a critical factor determining the riverine ecosystem structure and function. Widespread hydrologic alteration, however, has impacted the ecological integrity of rivers in ways that are not well understood, including responses of biological communities to increasingly frequent and severe climatic disturbances. Our study compared the responses of invertebrate communities on woody debris to large flooding and extreme drought in two highly contrasting segments of an impaired low-gradient river. The upstream segment, which according to previous research has higher α -diversity and production of large-bodied and sensitive invertebrates, maintained higher flows and longitudinal connectivity throughout the 4-year study. Communities in this upper segment resembled one another among sites (lower spatial turnover) but experienced greater temporal shifts in composition associated with hydrological disturbances. Conversely, invertebrate communities in the highly altered downstream segment, which is impaired by reduced flow, sedimentation, and hypoxia, were composed of smaller-bodied and pollution-tolerant taxa with lower α -diversity. Unlike the upper segment, communities were patchily distributed among sites (higher spatial turnover), which made it more difficult to detect system-wide temporal variation in composition throughout the study. Our study underscores the benefit of including measures of connectivity and spatial heterogeneity when assessing the ecological integrity of lotic systems. Understanding the system-wide response to disturbances across longer time frames can help better predict and mitigate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem integrity in degraded rivers.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2012

Ecosystem services from converted land: the importance of tree cover in Amazonian pastures

Deforestation is responsible for a substantial fraction of global carbon emissions and changes in surface energy budgets that affect climate. Deforestation losses include wildlife and human habitat, and myriad forest products on which rural and urban societies depend for food, fiber, fuel, fresh water, medicine, and recreation. Ecosystem services gained in the transition from forests to pasture and croplands, however, are often ignored in assessments of the impact of land cover change. The role of converted lands in tropical areas in terms of carbon uptake and storage is largely unknown. Pastures represent the fastest-growing form of converted land use in the tropics, even in some areas of rapid urban expansion. Tree biomass stored in these areas spans a broad range, depending on tree cover. Trees in pasture increase carbon storage, provide shade for cattle, and increase productivity of forage material. As a result, increasing fractional tree cover can provide benefits land managers as well as important ecosystem services such as reducing conversion pressure on forests adjacent to pastures. This study presents an estimation of fractional tree cover in pasture in a dynamic region on the verge of large-scale land use change. An appropriate sampling interval is established for similar studies, one that balances the need for independent samples of sufficient number to characterize a pasture in terms of fractional tree cover. This information represents a useful policy tool for government organizations and NGOs interested in encouraging ecosystem services on converted lands. Using high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery, fractional tree cover in pasture is quantified for the municipality of Rio Branco, Brazil. A semivariogram and devolving spatial resolution are employed to determine the coarsest sampling interval that may be used, minimizing effects of spatial autocorrelation. The coarsest sampling interval that minimizes spatial dependence was about 22 m. The area-weighted fractional tree cover for the study area was 1.85 %, corrected for a slight bias associated with the coarser sampling resolution. The pastures sampled for fractional tree cover were divided between ‘high’ and ‘low’ tree cover, which may be the result of intentional incorporation of arboreal species in pasture. Further research involving those ranchers that have a higher fractional tree cover may indicate ways to promote the practice on a broader scale in the region.

Urban Ecosystems↗

USGS2005

Primary production in an impounded baldcypress swamp (Taxodium distichum) at the northern limit of the range

The ability of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum)swamps to maintain themselves near the northern limit of their range depends on their levels of production, which is not only are response to climate but also to local environmental factors(e.g., impoundment). We asked if primary production was reduced under impounded conditions and if species' responses to impoundment were individualistic or more generalized. To examine long-term production trends in a permanently impounded baldcypress swamp, a 6-year study of leaf litterfall was conducted in Buttonland Swamp, Illinois, which had been impounded for 10 years before the beginning of the study. Buttonland Swamp is at the northern boundary of the baldcypress swamp region along the Cache River, Illinois, in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley of the United States. When the litter production of impounded sites was compared to those with natural hydrology in the same region, impounded sites had about half of the total litterfall of natural sites. Overall, leaf litterfall rates declined during the study(201 vs. 113 gm-2 yr-1), but the pattern was negatively correlated with water depth, which explained 97% of the variation in the data. Along the transect with the lowest mean minimum water depth(<0.5 cm), leaf litterfall decreased linearly over 6 years from 377 to 154gm-2 yr-1. Total leaf litterfall rates were lower at the other three depths(5, 43, and 49 cm mean minimum water depths)and remained below 200 gm-2 yr -1 throughout the study. Acer saccharinum, Nyssa aquatica, and Salix nigra were most responsible for the decline in total leaf litterfall. Amounts of leaf litterfall of T. distichum and Liquidambar styraciflua also generally decreased, while that of Cephalanthus occidentalis increased overtime. Because species' responses to environmental factors such as impoundment are individualistic, models should be based on the responses of individual species, rather than on communities. Our study further suggests that the effects of climate change on impounded swamps may differ from those with natural hydrology, since impounded swamps already have reduced production levels. This finding is particularly relevant since the hydrology of the majority of the world's riverine ecosystems has been altered. ?? Springer 2005.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2000

Multiphase flow of the late Wisconsinan Cordilleran ice sheet in western Canada

In central British Columbia, ice flow during the late Wisconsinan Fraser glaciation (ca. 25–10 ka) occurred in three phases. The ice expansion phase occurred during an extended period when glaciers flowed westward to the Pacific Ocean and east-southeastward onto the Nechako Plateau from ice centers in the Skeena, Hazelton, Coast, and Omineca Mountains. Initially, glacier flow was confined by topography along major valleys, but eventually piedmont and montane glaciers coalesced to form an integrated glacier system, the Cordilleran ice sheet. In the maximum phase, a Cordilleran ice divide developed over the Nechako Plateau to 300 km inland from the Pacific coast. At this time, the surface of the ice sheet extended well above 2500 m above sea level, and flowed westward over the Skeena, Hazelton, and Coast Mountains onto the continental shelf, and eastward across the Rocky Mountains into Alberta. In the late glacial phase, a rapid rise of the equilibrium line caused ice lobes to stagnate in valleys, and restricted accumulation centers to high mountains. Discordant directions in ice flow are attributed to fluctuations of the ice divide representing changes in the location of accumulation centers and ice thickness. Ice centers probably shifted in response to climate, irregular growth in the ice sheet, rapid calving, ice streaming, and drainage of proglacial and subglacial water bodies. Crosscutting ice-flow indicators and preservation of early (valley parallel) flow features in areas exposed to later (cross-valley) glacier erosion indicate that the ice expansion phase was the most erosive and protracted event.

British Columbia↗

USGS2001

Paleohydrologic record of spring deposits in and around Pleistocene pluvial Lake Tecopa, southeastern California

Tufa (spring) deposits in the Tecopa basin, California, reflect the response of arid groundwater regimes to wet climate episodes. Two types of tufa are represented, informally defined as (1) an easily disaggregated, fine-grained mixture of calcite and quartz (friable tufa) in the southwest Tecopa Valley, and (2) hard, vuggy micrite, laminated carbonate, and carbonate-cemented sands and gravels (indurated tufa) along the eastern margin of Lake Tecopa. High δ 18 O VSMOW (Vienna standard mean ocean water) water values, field relations, and the texture of friable tufa suggest rapid nucleation of calcite as subaqueous, fault- controlled groundwater discharge mixed with high-pH, hypersaline lake water. Variations between δ 18 O VSMOW and δ 13 C PDB (Peedee belemnite) values relative to other closed basin lakes such as the Great Salt Lake and Lake Lahontan suggest similarities in climatic and hydrologic settings. Indurated tufa, also fault controlled, formed mounds and associated feeder systems as well as stratabound carbonate-cemented ledges. Both deposits represent discharge of deeply circulated, high total dissolved solids, and high p CO 2 regional groundwater with kinetic enrichments of as much as several per mil for δ 18 O VSMOW values. Field relations show that indurated tufa represents episodic discharge, and U-series ages imply that discharge was correlated with cold, wet climate episodes. In response to both the breaching of the Tecopa basin and a modern arid climate, most discharge has changed from fault-controlled locations near basin margins to topographic lows of the Amargosa River drainage at elevations 30–130 m lower. Because of episodic climate change, spring flows may have relocated from basin margin to basin center multiple times.

California↗

USGS2009

Isotopic composition of low-latitude paleoprecipitation during the Early Cretaceous

The response of the hydrologic cycle in global greenhouse conditions is important to our understanding of future climate change and to the calibration of global climate models. Past greenhouse conditions, such as those of the Cretaceous, can be used to provide empirical data with which to evaluate climate models. Recent empirical studies have utilized pedogenic carbonates to estimate the isotopic composition of meteoric waters and calculate precipitation rates for the AptianAlbian. These studies were limited to data from mid(35??N) to high (75??N) paleolatitudes, and thus future improvements in accuracy will require more estimates of meteoric water compositions from numerous localities around the globe. This study provides data for tropical latitudes (18.5??N paleolatitude) from the Tlayua Formation, Puebla, Mexico. In addition, the study confirms a shallow nearshore depositional environment for the Tlayua Formation. Petrographic observations of fenestral fabrics, gypsum crystal molds, stromatolitic structures, and pedogenic matrix birefringence fabric support the interpretation that the strata represent deposition in a tidal flat environment. Carbonate isotopic data from limestones of the Tlayua Formation provide evidence of early meteoric diagenesis in the form of meteoric calcite lines. These trends in ?? 18 O versus ?? 13 C were used to calculate the mean ?? 18 O value of meteoric water, which is estimated at -5.46 ?? 0.56??? (Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water [VSMOW]). Positive linear covariant trends in oxygen and carbon isotopic values from some horizons were used to estimate evaporative losses of vadose groundwater from tropical exposure surfaces during the Albian, and the resulting values range from 8% to 12%. However, the presence of evaporative mineral molds indicates more extensive evaporation. The added tropical data improve latitudinal coverage of paleoprecipitation ??18O estimates. The data presented here imply that earlier isotope mass balance models most likely underestimated tropical to subtropical precipitation and evaporation fluxes. The limited latitudinal constraints for earlier isotope mass balance modeling of the Albian hydrologic cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Americas resulted in extrapolated low-latitude precipitation ?? 18 O values that were much heavier (up to 3???) than the values observed in this study. The lighter values identified in this study indicate a more pronounced rainout effect for tropical regions and quite possibly a more vigorous evaporation effect. These and additional low-latitude data are required to better constrain changes in the hydrologic cycle during the Cretaceous greenhouse period, and to reduce the uncertainties resulting from limited geographic coverage of proxy data. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2016

Dynamic distributions and population declines of Golden-winged Warblers

With an estimated breeding population in 2010 of 383,000 pairs, the Golden-winged Warbler ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) is among the most vulnerable and steeply declining of North American passerines. This species also has exhibited among the most dynamic breeding distributions, with populations expanding and then contracting over the past 150 years in response to regional habitat changes, interactions with closely related Blue-winged Warblers ( V. cyanoptera ), and possibly climate change. Since 1966, the rangewide population has declined by >70% (-2.3% per year; latest North American Breeding Bird Survey data), with much steeper declines in the Appalachian Mountains bird conservation region (-8.3% per year, 98% overall decline). Despite apparently stable or increasing populations in the northwestern part of the range (Minnesota, Manitoba), population estimates for Golden-winged Warbler have continued to decline by 18% from the decade of the 1990s to the 2000s. Population modeling predicts a further decline to roughly 37,000 individuals by 2100, with the species likely to persist only in Manitoba, Minnesota, and possibly Ontario. To delineate the present-day distribution and to identify population concentrations that could serve as conservation focus areas, we compiled rangewide survey data collected in 2000-2006 in 21 states and 3 Canadian provinces, as part of the Golden-winged Warbler Atlas Project (GOWAP), supplemented by state and provincial Breeding Bird Atlas data and more recent observations in eBird. Based on >8,000 GOWAP surveys for Golden-winged and Blue-winged warblers and their hybrids, we mapped occurrence of phenotypically pure and mixed populations in a roughly 0.5-degree grid across the species’ ranges. Hybrids and mixed Golden-winged-Blue-winged populations occurred in a relatively narrow zone across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, southern Ontario, and northern New York. Phenotypically pure Golden-winged Warbler populations occurred north of this hybrid zone, but the future of northern populations in the Great Lakes states and Canada (where >80% of the species occurs at present) is highly uncertain because of continued northward expansion of Blue-winged Warblers and hybridization. A second, now-disjunct band of Golden-winged Warbler populations exists in the Appalachian Mountains from southeastern New York to northern Georgia, surrounded at lower elevations by Blue-winged Warblers. Important concentrations of Golden-winged Warblers persist in the Allegheny Mountains region of West Virginia, the Cumberland Mountains in Tennessee, Blue Ridge Mountains of western North Carolina, Allegheny Plateau and Pocono Mountains in Pennsylvania, and in the Hudson Highlands of southern New York. These high-elevation Appalachian populations have escaped contact with Blue-winged Warblers until very recently and represent important refugia for conservation and management; other Appalachian populations are rapidly declining. In addition, based on historical records and standardized surveys across the wintering grounds, we identified three regions of concentration: highlands and Caribbean slopes from Guatemala and Belize to northwestern Nicaragua; middle elevations (both slopes) in Costa Rica and western Panama; and in an arc of the northern Andes from central Colombia to northern Venezuela. It is possible that the winter range has been shifting towards the northwest in recent decades, paralleling shifts in the breeding distribution. Future conservation efforts for Golden-winged Warbler need to include close monitoring of the dynamic phenotypic and genetic distributional shifts, and may need to consider the “winged warbler” complex together as a highly adaptable evolutionary unit.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS2019

Plasticity in elk migration timing is a response to changing environmental conditions

Migration is an effective behavioral strategy for prolonging access to seasonal resources and may be a resilient strategy for ungulates experiencing changing climatic conditions. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), elk are the primary ungulate, with approximately 20,000 individuals migrating to exploit seasonal gradients in forage while also avoiding energetically costly snow conditions. How climate-induced changes in plant phenology and snow accumulation are influencing elk migration timing is unknown. We present the most complete record of elk migration across the GYE, spanning 9 herds and 414 individuals from 2001 to 2017, to evaluate the drivers of migration timing and test for temporal shifts. The timing of elk departure from winter range involved a trade-off between current and anticipated forage conditions, while snow melt governed summer range arrival date. Timing of elk departure from summer range and arrival on winter range were both influenced by snow accumulation and exposure to hunting. At the GYE scale, spring and fall migration timing changed through time, most notably with winter range arrival dates becoming almost 50 days later since 2001. Predicted herd-level changes in migration timing largely agreed with observed GYE-wide changes—except for predicted winter range arrival dates which did not reflect the magnitude of change detected in the elk telemetry data. Snow melt, snow accumulation, and spring green-up dates all changed through time, with different herds experiencing different rates and directions of change. We conclude that elk migration is plastic, is a direct response to environmental cues, and that these environmental cues are not changing in a consistent manner across the GYE. The impacts of changing elk migration timing on predator–prey dynamics, carnivore–livestock conflict, disease ecology, and harvest management across the GYE are likely to be significant and complex.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2012

A science plan for a comprehensive assessment of water supply in the region underlain by fractured rock in Maryland

The fractured rock region of Maryland, which includes land areas north and west of the Interstate 95 corridor, is the source of water supply for approximately 4.4 million Marylanders, or approximately 76 percent of the State's population. Whereas hundreds of thousands of residents rely on wells (both domestic and community), millions rely on surface-water sources. In this region, land use, geology, topography, water withdrawals, impoundments, and other factors affect water-flow characteristics. The unconfined groundwater systems are closely interconnected with rivers and streams, and are affected by seasonal and climatic variations. During droughts, groundwater levels drop, thereby decreasing well yields, and in some cases, wells have gone dry. Low ground-water levels contribute to reduced streamflows, which in turn, can lead to reduced habitat for aquatic life. Increased demand, over-allocation, population growth, and climate change can affect the future sustainability of water supplies in the region of Maryland underlain by fractured rock. In response to recommendations of the 2008 Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources report, the Maryland Department of the Environment's Water Supply Program, the Maryland Geological Survey, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Monitoring and Non-Tidal Assessment (MANTA) Division, and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a science plan for a comprehensive assessment that will provide new scientific information, new data analysis, and new tools for the State to better manage water resources in the fractured rock region of Maryland. The science plan lays out five goals for the comprehensive assessment: (1) develop tools for the improved management and investigation of groundwater and surface-water resources; (2) characterize factors affecting reliable yields of individual groundwater and surface-water supplies; (3) investigate impacts on nearby water withdrawal users caused by groundwater and surface-water withdrawals; (4) assess the role of streamflow and water withdrawals on the ecological integrity of streams; and (5) improve understanding of the distribution of water-quality conditions in fractured rock aquifers. To accomplish these goals, accurate data collection, review, and analysis are needed, including the study of "Research Watersheds" that can provide detailed information about the potential effects that climate change and water withdrawals may have on groundwater, streamflow, and aquatic life. The assessment planning started in 2009 and is being conducted with close interagency coordination. A Fractured Rock Aquifer Information System is currently (2012) undergoing initial development. Other major tasks that will be performed include the development of work plans for each science goal, the estimation of daily streamflow at ungaged streams, and the design and implementation of Research Watersheds. Finally, scenarios will be modeled to evaluate current water allocation permitting methodologies, investigate effects on nearby water withdrawal users caused by groundwater and surface-water withdrawals, and assess the potential impacts of climate change on water resources. Desktop and Web-based tools will be developed in order to meet the diverse research needs of the assessment. These tools, including the Fractured Rock Aquifer Information System will be continuously improved during the assessment to store relevant groundwater and surface-water data in spatially referenced databases, estimate streamflows, locate higher-yielding wells, estimate the impacts of withdrawals on nearby users, and assess the cumulative impacts of withdrawals on the aquatic resource. Tools will be developed to serve the needs of many audiences, including water resource managers, water suppliers, planners, policymakers, and other scientific investigators.

Maryl↗

USGS2015

Uranium isotopes and dissolved organic carbon in loess permafrost: Modeling the age of ancient ice

The residence time of ice in permafrost is an indicator of past climate history, and of the resilience and vulnerability of high-latitude ecosystems to global change. Development of geochemical indicators of ground-ice residence times in permafrost will advance understanding of the circumstances and evidence of permafrost formation, preservation, and thaw in response to climate warming and other disturbance. We used uranium isotopes to evaluate the residence time of segregated ground ice from ice-rich loess permafrost cores in central Alaska. Activity ratios of 234 U vs. 238 U ( 234 U/ 238 U) in water from thawed core sections ranged between 1.163 and 1.904 due to contact of ice and associated liquid water with mineral surfaces over time. Measured ( 234 U/ 238 U) values in ground ice showed an overall increase with depth in a series of five neighboring cores up to 21 m deep. This is consistent with increasing residence time of ice with depth as a result of accumulation of loess over time, as well as characteristic ice morphologies, high segregated ice content, and wedge ice, all of which support an interpretation of syngenetic permafrost formation associated with loess deposition. At the same time, stratigraphic evidence indicates some past sediment redistribution and possibly shallow thaw among cores, with local mixing of aged thaw waters. Using measures of surface area and a leaching experiment to determine U distribution, a geometric model of ( 234 U/ 238 U) evolution suggests mean ages of up to &sim;200 ky BP in the deepest core, with estimated uncertainties of up to an order of magnitude. Evidence of secondary coatings on loess grains with elevated ( 234 U/ 238 U) values and U concentrations suggests that refinement of the geometric model to account for weathering processes is needed to reduce uncertainty. We suggest that in this area of deep ice-rich loess permafrost, ice bodies have been preserved from the last glacial period (10–100 ky BP), despite subsequent fluctuations in climate, fire disturbance and vegetation. Radiocarbon ( 14 C) analysis of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in thaw waters supports ages greater than &sim;40 ky BP below 10 m. DOC concentrations in thaw waters increased with depth to maxima of >1000 ppm, despite little change in ice content or cryostructures. These relations suggest time-dependent production of old DOC that will be released upon permafrost thaw at a rate that is mediated by sediment transport, among other factors.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Can elevated CO 2 modify regeneration from seed banks of floating freshwater marshes subjected to rising sea-level?

Higher atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 can offset the negative effects of flooding or salinity on plant species, but previous studies have focused on mature, rather than regenerating vegetation. This study examined how interacting environments of CO 2 , water regime, and salinity affect seed germination and seedling biomass of floating freshwater marshes in the Mississippi River Delta, which are dominated by C 3 grasses, sedges, and forbs. Germination density and seedling growth of the dominant species depended on multifactor interactions of CO 2 (385 and 720 μl l -1 ) with flooding (drained, +8-cm depth, +8-cm depth-gradual) and salinity (0, 6% seawater) levels. Of the three factors tested, salinity was the most important determinant of seedling response patterns. Species richness (total = 19) was insensitive to CO 2 . Our findings suggest that for freshwater marsh communities, seedling response to CO 2 is species-specific and secondary to salinity and flooding effects. Elevated CO 2 did not ameliorate flooding or salinity stress. Consequently, climate-related changes in sea level or human-caused alterations in hydrology may override atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in driving shifts in this plant community. The results of this study suggest caution in making extrapolations from species-specific responses to community-level predictions without detailed attention to the nuances of multifactor responses.

Mississippi River Delta↗

USGS2018

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future. We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the “current” (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected “end-of-century” (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2017

Polar bears experience skeletal muscle atrophy in response to food deprivation and reduced activity in winter and summer

When reducing activity and using stored energy during seasonal food shortages, animals risk degradation of skeletal muscles, although some species avoid or minimize the resulting atrophy while experiencing these conditions during hibernation. Polar bears may be food deprived and relatively inactive during winter (when pregnant females hibernate and hunting success declines for other demographic groups) as well as summer (when sea ice retreats from key foraging habitats). We investigated muscle atrophy in samples of biceps femoris collected from free-ranging polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) throughout their annual cycle. Atrophy was most pronounced in April–May as a result of food deprivation during the previous winter, with muscles exhibiting reduced protein concentration, increased water content, and lower creatine kinase mRNA. These animals increased feeding and activity in spring (when seal prey becomes more available), initiating a period of muscle recovery. During the following ice melt of late summer, ~30% of SBS bears abandon retreating sea ice for land; in August, these ‘shore’ bears exhibited no muscle atrophy, indicating that they had fully recovered from winter food deprivation. These individuals subsequently scavenged whale carcasses deposited by humans and by October, had retained good muscle condition. In contrast, ~70% of SBS bears follow the ice north in late summer, into deep water with less prey. These ‘ice’ bears fast; by October, they exhibited muscle protein loss and rapid changes in myosin heavy-chain isoforms in response to reduced activity. These findings indicate that, unlike other bears during winter hibernation, polar bears without food in summer cannot mitigate atrophy. Consequently, prolonged summer fasting resulting from climate change-induced ice loss creates a risk of greater muscle atrophy and reduced abilities to travel and hunt.

Conservation Physiology↗