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At least 1,207 records · Page 67Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Data management challenges in species distribution modeling

An important component in the fields of ecology and conservation biology is understanding the environmental conditions and geographic areas that are suitable for a given species to inhabit. A common tool in determining such areas is species distribution modeling which uses computer algorithms to determine the spatial distribution of organisms. Most commonly the correlative relationships between the organism and environmental variables are the primary consideration. The data requirements for this type of modeling consist of known presence and possibly absence locations of the species as well as the values of environmental or climatic covariates thought to define the species habitat suitability at these locations. These covariate data are generally extracted from remotely sensed imagery, interpolated/gridded historical climate data, or downscaled climate model output. Traditionally, ecologists and biologists have constructed species distribution models using workflows and data that reside primarily on their local workstations or networks. This workflow is becoming challenging as scientists increasingly try to use these modeling techniques to inform management decisions under different climate change scenarios. This challenge stems from the fact that remote sensing products, gridded historical climate, and downscaled climate models are not only increasing in spatial and temporal resolution but proliferating as well. Any rigorous assessment of uncertainty requires a computationally intensive sensitivity analysis accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The scientists fitting these models generally do not have the background in computer science required to take advantage of recent advances in web-service based data acquisition, remote high-powered data processing, or scientific workflow systems. Ecologists in the field of modeling are in need of a tractable platform that abstracts the inherent computational complexity required to incorporate the burgeoning field of coupled climate and ecological response modeling. In this paper we describe the computational challenges in species distribution modeling and solutions using scientific workflow systems. We focus on the Software for Assisted Species Modeling (SAHM) a package within VisTrails, an open-source scientific workflow system.

Bulletin of the Technical Committee on Data Engine↗
USGS2020

High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands

The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐year time slices were downscaled for historical (1986–2005) and future (2041–2060) periods following RCP8.5. Projected changes to mean and extreme temperature and precipitation were quantified for Holdridge life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The evaluation reveals a persistent cold bias for all islands in the U.S. Caribbean, a dry bias across Puerto Rico, and a wet bias on the windward side of mountains within the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite these biases, model simulations show a robust drying pattern for all islands that is generally larger for Puerto Rico (25% annual rainfall reduction for some life zones) than the U.S. Virgin Islands (12% island average). The largest precipitation reductions are found during the more convectively active afternoon and evening hours. Within Puerto Rico, the model uncertainty increases for the wetter life zones, especially for precipitation. Across the life zones, both models project unprecedented maximum and minimum temperatures that may exceed 200 days annually above the historical baseline with only small changes to the frequency of extreme rainfall. By contrast, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is no consensus on the location of the largest drying relative to the windward and leeward side of the islands. However, the models project the largest increases in maximum temperature on the southern side of St. Croix and in higher elevations of St. Thomas and St. John.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2019

Not so normal normals: Species distribution model results are sensitive to choice of climate normals and model type

Species distribution models have many applications in conservation and ecology, and climate data are frequently a key driver of these models. Often, correlative modeling approaches are developed with readily available climate data; however, the impacts of the choice of climate normals is rarely considered. Here, we produced species distribution models for five disparate species using four different modeling algorithms and compared results between two different, but overlapping, climate normals time periods. Although the correlation structure among climate predictors did not change between the time periods, model results were sensitive to both baseline climate period and model method, even with model parameters specifically tuned to a species. Each species and each model type had at least one difference in variable retention or relative ranking with the change in climate time period. Pairwise comparisons of spatial predictions were also different, ranging from a low of 1.6% for climate period differences to a high of 25% for algorithm differences. While uncertainty from model algorithm selection is recognized as an important source of uncertainty, the impact of climate period is not commonly assessed. These uncertainties may affect conservation decisions, especially when projecting to future climates, and should be evaluated during model development.

Climate↗
USGS2019

Microclimate influences mangrove freeze damage: Implications for range expansion in response to changing macroclimate

In response to warming winter air temperatures, freeze-sensitive mangrove forests are expected to expand at the expense of freeze-tolerant salt marshes. To better anticipate and prepare for mangrove range expansion, there is a need to advance understanding of the modulating role of microclimate. Here, we synthesized hypotheses regarding the effects of microclimatic variation on temperature gradients and mangrove freeze damage. Temperature data from the literature and from temperature loggers were used to quantify ecologically relevant temperature gradients. Then, literature-derived mangrove freeze damage data were used to quantify the ecological effects of these temperature gradients. Six microclimatic factors are described that produce air temperature gradients that modulate mangrove responses to winter temperature extremes: (1) distance from the ocean; (2) distance from wind buffers; (3) mangrove canopy cover; (4) height above the soil surface; (5) local slope concavity; and (6) tidal inundation. Variation in these factors produces local temperature differences that range from 2 to 14 °C, with concomitant effects on horizontal and vertical patterns of biological damage from freezing. Collectively, our results elucidate the influence of microclimate on spatial patterns of biological damage and mortality due to winter temperature extremes. As mangrove ranges expand in response to climate change, we anticipate that microclimatic variation will produce adverse environments where mangrove expansion is prohibited as well as expansion hot spots where mangroves are protected. Subsequent expansion into newly available habitat will occur from protection zones, and microclimatic gradients may even produce positive feedback cycles that ultimately accelerate the rate of range expansion in response to warming.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2018

Landscape pivot points and responses to water balance in national parks of the southwest US

A recent drying trend that is expected to continue in the southwestern US underscores the need for site‐specific and near real‐time understanding of vegetation vulnerability so that land management actions can be implemented at the right time and place. We related the annual integrated normalized difference vegetation index (iNDVI), a proxy for vegetation production, to water balance across landscapes of the Colorado Plateau. We determined how changes in production per unit of water (vegetation responses) and the water balance amounts at which production shifted from above to below average values (pivot points), varied across dominant vegetation and soil types. Precipitation (PRCP), actual evapotranspiration (AET), water deficit ( D ), and soil moisture (SM) explained 13%–82% of variation in vegetation production. Along an increasing water availability gradient, vegetation responses to PRCP and AET increased, responses to SM decreased, and responses to D became more negative. We found trade‐offs between vegetation responses and pivot points within and across all vegetation types that were mediated by soil properties. Synthesis and applications . The water needed by native vegetation to maintain production depends on plant traits. The water available to vegetation depends on climate and soil properties that change along environmental gradients. Tracking this biologically relevant water availability in relation to water need provides an indicator of vegetation growth or stress that can help guide the time and place for management actions.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2012

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting ( Calamospiza melanocorys ) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation, yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 38C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Factors driving nutrient trends in streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although water-quality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2023

Mesocarnivores of western rangelands

There are 22 species of mesocarnivores (carnivores weighing < 15 kg) belonging to five families that live in rangelands of the western United States. Mesocarnivores are understudied relative to large carnivores but can have significant impacts on ecosystems and human dimensions. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge about the biology, ecology, and human interactions of the mesocarnivores that occupy the rangelands of the central and western United States. In these two regions, mesocarnivores may serve as the apex predator in areas where large carnivores no longer occur, and can have profound impacts on endemic prey, disease ecology, and livestock production. Some mesocarnivore species are valued because they are harvested for food and fur, while others are considered nuisance species because they can have negative impacts on ranching. Many mesocarnivores have flexible life history strategies that make them well-suited for future population growth or range expansion as western landscapes change due to rapid human population growth, landscape development, and alterations to ecosystems from climate change; however other mesocarnivores continue to decline. More research on this important guild is needed to understand their role in western working landscapes.

Book chapter↗
USGS1996

Holocene paleoenvironments of Northeast Iowa

This paper presents the biotic, sedimentary, geomorphic, and climatic history of the upper part of the Roberts Creek Basin, northeastern Iowa for the late—glacial and Holocene, and compares these records with a C—O isotopic sequence from Coldwater Cave, 60 km northwest of Roberts Creek. The biotic record (pollen, vascular plant and bryophyte macrofossils, and insects) is preserved in floodplain alluvium that underlies three constructional surfaces separated by low scarps. Each surface is underlain by a lithologically and temporally distinct alluvial fill. The highest surface is underlain by the Gunder Member of the Deforest Formation, dating from 11 000 to 4000 yr BP; beneath the intermediate level is the Roberts Creek Member, dating from 4000 to 400 yr BP; and the lowest level is underlain by the Camp Creek Member, deposited during the last 380 yr. Pollen and plant macrofossils in the alluvial fill show that a typical late—glacial spruce forest was replaced by Quercus and Ulmus in the early Holocene. This early—to—middle Holocene forest became dominated by mesic elements such as Acer saccharum, Tilia americana, Ostrya virginiana, and Carpinus caroliniana as late as 5500 yr BP; in contrast, the closest sites to the west and north were at their warmest and driest and were covered by prairie vegetation between 6500 and 5500 yr BP. After 5500 yr BP, the forest in the Roberts Creek area was replaced by prairie, as indicated by a rich assemblage of plant macrofossils, although only Ambrosia and Poaceae became abundant in the pollen record. The return of Quercus ≈ 3000 BP (while nonarboreal pollen percentages remained relatively high) indicates that oak savanna prevailed with little change until settlement time. The bryophyte assemblages strongly support the vascular plant record. Rich fen species characteristic of boreal habitats occur only in the late—glacial. They are replaced by a number of deciduous—forest elements when early—to—middle Holocene forests were present, but mosses of forest habitats completely disappear when prairie became dominant. A few deciduous—forest taxa return during the late—Holocene, when oak savanna prevailed. The C—O isotopic record from stalagmite s in Coldwater Cave indicates a relatively stable environment from ≈ 8000 to 5100 yr BP, when the δ 13 C values indicate a change in vegetation dominated by C 3 (predominantly forest) to C 4 (predominantly prairie) plants. About 4900 yr BP, the rise in 18 O values indicates a temperature increase of ≈ 1.5 ° C. The fact that the vegetational change suggested by the δ 13 C values preceded the temperature increase suggests that fire may have been an important factor in converting forest to prairie. Abundant charred seeds and other plant material at Roberts Creek 4830 yr BP support this hypothesis. The 18 O values remain constant from ≈ 5100 to ≈ 3000 yr BP, but the δ 13 C values gradually rise, indicating that soil formed under forest takes at least 2000 yr for its carbon to reach equilibrium after replacement by prairie vegetation. The return of oak to form savanna is reflected in the gradual decline of δ 13 C values in the last 3000 yr BP; O isotopic values drop sharply by ≈ 1 ° C ≈ 2800 yr BP and then were relatively stable. In contrast to the vegetational and isotopic records, the insect assemblages suggest little change in the local environments throughout most of the Holocene. All of the beetle taxa presently occur in eastern Iowa. The relative stability through the Holocene indicates that both open grassland and riparian woodland elements were present throughout. Settlement, land clearing, and land cultivation by EuroAmericans in the region caused rapid erosion of the upland landscape, the deposition of 1—2 m of sediment across the floodplain, a replacement of the native vegetation with ruderal species, a decimation of the native insect fauna, and a degradation of water quality in the stream. These changes in the landscape, vegetation, and insect faunas are as striking as those associated with glacial—interglacial transitions. The timing and direction of changes in the vegetation at Roberts Creek generally correlate well with the carbon and oxygen isotopic record in speleothems at nearby Coldwater Cave and indicate that climate was the main forcing function. However, the contrast between the vegetational change and the stability of the beetle population suggests that climatic changes were subtle. We hypothesize that the factors involved in the Holocene changes were seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation that may not have resulted in much mean annual change. Such changes may have affected the vegetation more than the insect fauna.

Iowa↗
USGS2017

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2024

Biogeochemical and community ecology responses to the wetting of non-perennial streams

Transitions between dry and wet hydrologic states are the defining characteristic of non-perennial rivers and streams, which constitute the majority of the global river network. Although past work has focused on stream drying characteristics, there has been less focus on how hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry respond and interact during stream wetting. Wetting mechanisms are highly variable and can range from dramatic floods and debris flows to gradual saturation by upwelling groundwater. This variation in wetting affects ecological and biogeochemical functions, including nutrient processing, sediment transport and the assembly of biotic communities. Here we synthesize evidence describing the hydrological mechanisms underpinning different types of wetting regimes, the associated biogeochemical and organismal responses, and the potential scientific and management implications for downstream ecosystems. This combined multidisciplinary understanding of wetting dynamics in non-perennial streams will be key to predicting and managing for the effects of climate change on non-perennial ecosystems.

Nature Water↗
USGS2023

Effects of population density and environmental conditions on life-history prevalence in a migratory fish

Individual variation in life-history traits can have important implications for the ability of populations to respond to environmental variability and change. In migratory animals, flexibility in the timing of life-history events, such as juvenile emigration from natal areas, can influence the effects of population density and environmental conditions on habitat use and population dynamics. We evaluated the functional relationships between population density and environmental covariates and the abundance of juveniles expressing different life-history pathways in a migratory fish, Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), in the Wenatchee River basin in Washington State, USA. We found that the abundance of younger emigrants from natal streams was best described by an accelerating or near-linear function of spawners, whereas the abundance of older emigrants was best described by a decelerating function of spawners. This supports the hypothesis that emigration timing varies in response to density in natal areas, with younger-emigrating life-history pathways comprising a larger proportion of emigrants when densities of conspecifics are high. We also observed positive relationships between winter stream discharge and abundance of younger emigrants, supporting the hypothesis that habitat conditions can also influence the prevalence of different life-history pathways. Our results suggest that early emigration, and a resultant increase in the use of downstream rearing habitats, may increase at higher population densities and with greater winter precipitation. Winter precipitation is projected to increase in this system due to climate warming. Characterizing relationships between life-history prevalence and environmental conditions may improve our understanding of species habitat requirements and is a first step in understanding the dynamics of species with diverse life-history strategies. As environmental conditions change—due to climate change, management, or other factors—resultant life-history changes are likely to have important demographic implications that will be challenging to predict when life-history diversity is not accounted for in population models.

Washington↗
USGS2010

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location: Europe. Methods: We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns. Results: Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions: Our Results: demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climateinduced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2020

Water priorities for the Nation—U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessments

The United States faces growing challenges to its water supply, infrastructure, and aquatic ecosystems because of population growth, climate change, floods and droughts, and aging water delivery systems. To help address these challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Resources Mission Area has established new strategic priorities that capitalize on the operational and scientific strengths of the USGS to address these complex societal issues. The USGS Integrated Water Availability Assessment Program within the Water Resources Mission Area will provide nationally consistent assessments of water available for human and ecological needs and identify factors that limit water availability. Integrated Water Availability Assessments will assess current conditions, long-term trends, factors responsible for current conditions and observed trends, and provide forecasts of future changes at national and regional scales.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2019

An assessment of plant species differences on cellulose oxygen isotopes from two Kenai Peninsula, Alaska peatlands: Implications for hydroclimatic reconstructions

Peat cores are valuable archives of past environmental change because they accumulate plant organic matter over millennia. While studies have primarily focused on physical, ecological, and some biogeochemical proxies, cores from peatlands have increasingly been used to interpret hydroclimatic change using stable isotope analyses of cellulose preserved in plant remains. Previous studies indicate that the stable oxygen isotope compositions (δ 18 O) preserved in alpha cellulose extracted from specific plant macrofossils reflect the δ 18 O values of past peatland water and thereby provide information on long-term changes in hydrology in response to climate. Oxygen isotope analyses of peat cellulose (δ 18 O cellulose ) have been successfully developed from peat cores that accumulate the same species for millennia. However, to fully exploit the potential of this proxy in species-diverse fens, studies are needed that account for the isotopic variations caused by changes in dominant species composition. This study assesses variation in δ 18 O values among peatland plant species and how they relate to environmental waters in two fens informally named Horse Trail and Goldfin, located on the leeward (dry) and windward (wet) side, respectively, of the climatic gradient across the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Environmental water δ 18 O values at both fens reflect unmodified δ 18 O values of mean annual precipitation, although at Goldfin standing pools were slightly influenced by evaporation. Modern plant [mosses and Carex spp. (sedges)] δ 18 O cellulose values indicate that all Carex spp. are higher (~2.5‰) than those of mosses, likely driven by their vascular structure and ecophysiological difference from non-vascular mosses. Moss δ 18 O cellulose values within each peatland are similar among the species, and differences appear related to evaporation effects on environmental waters within hummocks and hollows. The plant taxa-environmental water δ 18 O differences are applied to the previously determined Horse Trail Fen untreated bulk δ 18 O record. Results include significant changes to inferred millennial-to-centennial scale hydroclimatic trends where dominant taxa shift from moss to Carex spp., indicating that modern calibration datasets are necessary for interpreting stable isotopes from fens, containing a mix of vascular and nonvascular plants. Accounting for isotopic offsets through macrofossil analysis and modern plant-water isotope measurements opens new opportunities for hydroclimatic reconstructions from fen peatlands.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Rethinking foundation species in a changing world: The case for Rhododendron maximum as an emerging foundation species in shifting ecosystems of the southern Appalachians

“Foundation species” are widespread, abundant species that play critical roles in structuring ecosystem characteristics and processes. Ecosystem change in response to human activities, climate change, disease introduction, or other environmental conditions may promote the emergence of new foundation species or the decline of previously important foundation species. We present rhododendron ( Rhododendron maximum ) as an example of an emerging foundation species in riparian forest and headwater stream ecosystems of the southern Appalachian Mountains and use its example to propose a dynamic approach to recognizing foundation species. As other species have declined, rhododendron has increased in abundance, biomass, and ecosystem importance, and now dominates the riparian zones and mesic uplands of much of the region. Rhododendron structures, stabilizes, and modulates functions within both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Studies of forest ecosystem response to environmental conditions indicate that rhododendron may increase the resistance and resilience of its associated ecosystems to predicted anthropogenic stress, including climate change, nitrogen enrichment, and invasive species. A more dynamic conception of foundation species as dependent on ecosystem states will help ecologists to focus on ecosystem processes and services, rather than on historically dominant species, for restoration strategies.

Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, ↗
USGS2024

Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus) transcriptome reveals interplay between speciation genes and adaptive introgression

Genomes are heterogeneous during the early stages of speciation, with small ‘islands’ of DNA appearing to reflect strong adaptive differences, surrounded by vast seas of relative homogeneity. As species diverge, secondary contact zones between them can act as an interface and selectively filter through advantageous alleles of hybrid origin. Such introgression is another important adaptive process, one that allows beneficial mosaics of recombinant DNA (‘rivers’) to flow from one species into another. Although genomic islands of divergence appear to be associated with reproductive isolation, and genomic rivers form by adaptive introgression, it is unknown whether islands and rivers tend to be the same or different loci. We examined three replicate secondary contact zones for the Yosemite toad ( Anaxyrus canorus ) using two genomic data sets and a morphometric data set to answer the questions: (1) How predictably different are islands and rivers, both in terms of genomic location and gene function? (2) Are the adaptive genetic trait loci underlying tadpole growth and development reliably islands, rivers or neither? We found that island and river loci have significant overlap within a contact zone, suggesting that some loci are first islands, and later are predictably converted into rivers. However, gene ontology enrichment analysis showed strong overlap in gene function unique to all island loci, suggesting predictability in overall gene pathways for islands. Genome-wide association study outliers for tadpole development included LPIN3, a lipid metabolism gene potentially involved in climate change adaptation, that is island-like for all three contact zones, but also appears to be introgressing (as a river) across one zone. Taken together, our results suggest that adaptive divergence and introgression may be more complementary forces than currently appreciated.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2023

Connecting dryland fine-fuel assessments to wildfire exposure and natural resource values at risk

Background Wildland fire in arid and semi-arid (dryland) regions can intensify when climatic, biophysical, and land-use factors increase fuel load and continuity. To inform wildland fire management under these conditions, we developed high-resolution (10-m) estimates of fine fuel across the Altar Valley in southern Arizona, USA, which spans dryland, grass-dominated ecosystems that are administered by multiple land managers and owners. We coupled field measurements at the end of the 2021 growing season with Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and vegetation indices acquired during and after the growing season to develop predictions of fine fuel across the entire valley. We then assessed how climate, soil, vegetation, and land-use factors influenced the amount and distribution of fine fuels. We connected fine fuels to fire management points, past ignition history, and socio-economic vulnerability to evaluate wildfire exposure and assessed how fuel related to habitat of the endangered masked bobwhite quail ( Colinus virginianus ridgwayi ). Results The high amount of fine fuel (400–3600 kg/ha; mean = 1392 kg/ha) predicted by our remote sensing model ( R 2 = 0.63) for 2021 compared to previous years in the valley was stimulated by near-record high growing season precipitation that was 177% of the 1990–2020 mean. Fine fuel increased across the valley if it was contained within the wildlife refuge boundary and had lower temperature and vapor pressure deficit, higher soil organic content, and abundant annual plants and an invasive perennial grass ( R 2 = 0.24). The index of potential exposure to wildfire showed a clustering of high exposure centered around roads and low-density housing development distant from fire management points and extending into the upper elevations flanking the valley. Within the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, fine fuel increased with habitat suitability for the masked bobwhite quail within and adjacent to core habitat areas, representing a natural resource value at risk, accompanied with higher overall mean fine fuel (1672 kg/ha) in relation to 2015 (1347 kg/ha) and 2020 (1363 kg/ha) means. Conclusions By connecting high-resolution estimates of fine fuel to climatic, biophysical and land-use factors, wildfire exposure, and a natural resource value at risk, we provide a pro-active and adaptive framework for fire risk management within highly variable and rapidly changing dryland landscapes.

Arizona↗