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Flexible risk metrics for identifying and monitoring conservation-priority species

Region-specific conservation programs should have objective, reliable metrics for species prioritization and progress evaluation that are customizable to the goals of a program, easy to comprehend and communicate, and standardized across time. Regional programs may have vastly different goals, spatial coverage, or management agendas, and one-size-fits-all schemes may not always be the best approach. We propose a quantitative and objective framework for generating metrics for prioritizing species that is straightforward to implement and update, customizable to different spatial resolutions, and based on readily available time-series data. This framework is also well-suited to handling missing-data and observer error. We demonstrate this approach using North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS) data to identify conservation priority species from a list of over 300 landbirds across 33 bird conservation regions (BCRs). To highlight the flexibility of the framework for different management goals and timeframes we calculate two different metrics. The first identifies species that may be inadequately monitored by NABBS protocols in the near future (TMT, time to monitoring threshold), and the other identifies species likely to decline significantly in the near future based on recent trends (TPD, time to percent decline). Within the individual BCRs we found up to 45% (mean 28%) of the species analyzed had overall declining population trajectories, which could result in up to 37 species declining below a minimum NABBS monitoring threshold in at least one currently occupied BCR within the next 50 years. Additionally, up to 26% (mean 8%) of the species analyzed within the individual BCRs may decline by 30% within the next decade. Conservation workers interested in conserving avian diversity and abundance within these BCRs can use these metrics to plan alternative monitoring schemes or highlight the urgency of those populations experiencing the fastest declines. However, this framework is adaptable to many taxa besides birds where abundance time-series data are available.

Ecological Indicators↗

Nest site selection influences cinnamon teal nest survival in Colorado

Nest survival of ducks is partially a function of the spatiotemporal characteristics of the site at which a bird chooses to nest. Nest survival is also a fundamental component of population growth in waterfowl but is relatively unstudied for cinnamon teal ( Spatula cyanoptera ). We investigated cinnamon teal nest survival in a managed wetland complex in southern Colorado, USA, and assessed nest site selection to determine whether nest site characteristics were adaptive. We monitored 85 nests in 2015–2017 on Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge, Colorado and did not detect a difference in nest survival across years. Based on nest site selection data from 2017, cinnamon teal selected nest sites characterized by a lower proportion of forbs than available sites. The relationships between habitat characteristics and nest survival were variable. Microhabitat characteristics exhibited only weak effects on nest survival during the laying stage. Nest survival during incubation was negatively related to the proportion of forbs at the nest site and, to a lesser extent, the proportion of grasses. Nest site selection was predictive of future nest survival based on the percent of forbs and grasses around the nest site, suggesting teal select nest locations to benefit reproductive success. These results have the potential to guide local habitat management actions for breeding waterfowl.

Colorado↗

A matter of tradeoffs: reintroduction as a multiple objective decision

Decision making in guidance of reintroduction efforts is made challenging by the substantial scientific uncertainty typically involved. However, a less recognized challenge is that the management objectives are often numerous and complex. Decision makers managing reintroduction efforts are often concerned with more than just how to maximize the probability of reintroduction success from a population perspective. Decision makers are also weighing other concerns such as budget limitations, public support and/or opposition, impacts on the ecosystem, and the need to consider not just a single reintroduction effort, but conservation of the entire species. Multiple objective decision analysis is a powerful tool for formal analysis of such complex decisions. We demonstrate the use of multiple objective decision analysis in the case of the Florida non-migratory whooping crane reintroduction effort. In this case, the State of Florida was considering whether to resume releases of captive-reared crane chicks into the non-migratory whooping crane population in that state. Management objectives under consideration included maximizing the probability of successful population establishment, minimizing costs, maximizing public relations benefits, maximizing the number of birds available for alternative reintroduction efforts, and maximizing learning about the demographic patterns of reintroduced whooping cranes. The State of Florida engaged in a collaborative process with their management partners, first, to evaluate and characterize important uncertainties about system behavior, and next, to formally evaluate the tradeoffs between objectives using the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). The recommendation resulting from this process, to continue releases of cranes at a moderate intensity, was adopted by the State of Florida in late 2008. Although continued releases did not receive support from the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, this approach does provide a template for the formal, transparent consideration of multiple, potentially competing, objectives in reintroduction decision making.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Summary of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting detection probability of marsh birds

Many species of marsh birds (rails, bitterns, grebes, etc.) rely exclusively on emergent marsh vegetation for all phases of their life cycle, and many organizations have become concerned about the status and persistence of this group of birds. Yet, marsh birds are notoriously difficult to monitor due to their secretive habits. We synthesized the published and unpublished literature and summarized the factors that influence detection probability of secretive marsh birds in North America. Marsh birds are more likely to respond to conspecific than heterospecific calls, and seasonal peak in vocalization probability varies among co-existing species. The effectiveness of morning versus evening surveys varies among species and locations. Vocalization probability appears to be positively correlated with density in breeding Virginia Rails ( Rallus limicola ), Soras ( Porzana carolina ), and Clapper Rails ( Rallus longirostris ). Movement of birds toward the broadcast source creates biases when using count data from call-broadcast surveys to estimate population density. Ambient temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and moon phase affected detection probability in some, but not all, studies. Better estimates of detection probability are needed. We provide recommendations that would help improve future marsh bird survey efforts and a list of 14 priority information and research needs that represent gaps in our current knowledge where future resources are best directed.

Wetlands↗

Habitat selection by juvenile Swainson’s thrushes ( Catharus ustulatus ) in headwater riparian areas, northwestern Oregon, USA

Lower order, non-fish-bearing streams, often termed “headwater streams”, have received minimal research effort and protection priority, especially in mesic forests where distinction between riparian and upland vegetation can be subtle. Though it is generally thought that breeding bird abundance is higher in riparian zones, little is known about species distributions when birds are in their juvenile stage – a critical period in terms of population viability. Using radio telemetry, we examined factors affecting habitat selection by juvenile Swainson’s thrushes during the post-breeding period in headwater basins in the Coast Range of Oregon, USA. We tested models containing variables expected to influence the amount of food and cover (i.e., deciduous cover, coarse wood volume, and proximity to stream) as well as models containing variables that are frequently measured and manipulated in forest management (i.e., deciduous and coniferous trees separated into size classes). Juvenile Swainson’s thrushes were more likely to select locations with at least 25% cover of deciduous, mid-story vegetation and more than 2.0 m 3 /ha of coarse wood within 40 m of headwater streams. We conclude that despite their small and intermittent nature, headwater streams and adjacent riparian areas are selected over upland areas by Swainson’s thrush during the postfledging period in the Oregon Coast Range.

Oregon↗

Trends and population estimate of the threatened Buff-breasted Sandpiper Calidris subruficollis wintering in coastal grasslands of southern Brazil

Information about population sizes, trends, and habitat use is key for species conservation and management. The Buff-breasted Sandpiper Calidris subruficollis (BBSA) is a long-distance migratory shorebird that breeds in the Arctic and migrates to south-eastern South America, wintering in the grasslands of southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina. Most studies of Nearctic migratory species occur in the Northern Hemisphere, but monitoring these species at non-breeding areas is crucial for conservation during this phase of the annual cycle. Our first objective was to estimate trends of BBSA at four key areas in southern Brazil during the non-breeding season. We surveyed for BBSA and measured vegetation height in most years from 2008/09 to 2019/20. We used hierarchical distance sampling models in which BBSA abundance and density were modelled as a function of vegetation height and corrected for detectability. Next, we used on-the-ground surveys combined with satellite imagery and habitat classification models to estimate BBSA population size in 2019/20 at two major non-breeding areas. We found that abundance and density were negatively affected by increasing vegetation height. Abundance fluctuated five- to eight-fold over the study period, with peaks in the middle of the study (2014/15). We estimated the BBSA wintering population size as 1,201 (95% credible interval [CI]: 637–1,946) birds in Torotama Island and 2,232 (95% CI: 1,199–3,584) in Lagoa do Peixe National Park during the 2019/20 austral summer. Although no pronounced trend was detected, BBSA abundance fluctuated greatly from year to year. Our results demonstrate that only two of the four key areas hold high densities of BBSA and highlight the positive effect of short grass on BBSA numbers. Short-grass coastal habitats used by BBSA are strongly influenced by livestock grazing and climate, and are expected to shrink in size with future development and climatic changes.

Bird Conservation International↗

Respiratory transmission of an avian H3N8 influenza virus isolated from a harbour seal

The ongoing human H7N9 influenza infections highlight the threat of emerging avian influenza viruses. In 2011, an avian H3N8 influenza virus isolated from moribund New England harbour seals was shown to have naturally acquired mutations known to increase the transmissibility of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses. To elucidate the potential human health threat, here we evaluate a panel of avian H3N8 viruses and find that the harbour seal virus displays increased affinity for mammalian receptors, transmits via respiratory droplets in ferrets and replicates in human lung cells. Analysis of a panel of human sera for H3N8 neutralizing antibodies suggests that there is no population-wide immunity to these viruses. The prevalence of H3N8 viruses in birds and multiple mammalian species including recent isolations from pigs and evidence that it was a past human pandemic virus make the need for surveillance and risk analysis of these viruses of public health importance.

Nature Communications↗

Can lowland dry forests represent a refuge from avian malaria for native Hawaiian birds?

Hawaii's native birds have become increasingly threatened over the past century. Introduced mosquito borne diseases such as avian malaria may be responsible for the near absence of endemic Hawaiian forest birds in low-elevation habitats. The recent recognition that some native Hawaiian forest birds may be repopulating moist lowland habitats as a result of evolved resistance to this disease has increased the conservation value of these areas. Here, we investigate whether remnant low elevation dry forests on Hawaii Island provide natural 'refuges' from mosquito-transmitted malaria by nature of their low rainfall and absence of suitable natural sources of water for mosquito breeding. Unlike lowland wet forests where high rates of disease transmission may be selecting for disease resistance, lowland dry forests may provide some refuge for native forest birds without natural resistance to malaria. We mistnetted forest birds in two lowland dry forests and tested all native birds by microscopy and serology for avian malaria caused by the Plasmodium relictum parasite. We also conducted surveys for standing water and mosquito larvae. Overall prevalence of infections with Plasmodium relictum in the Hawaii Amakihi Hemignathus virens virens was 15%. Most infected birds had lowlevel parasitemias, suggesting chronic infections. Although avian malaria is present in these lowland dry forest Amakihi populations, infection rates are significantly lower than in wet forest populations at similar elevations. Sources of breeding mosquitoes in these forests appeared to be largely anthropogenic; thus, there is potential to manage dry forests as mosquito-free habitat for Hawaii Amakihi and other Hawaiian forest birds.

Hawai'i↗

Re-Occupancy of Breeding Territories by Ferruginous Hawks in Wyoming: Relationships to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

Grassland and shrubland birds are declining globally due in part to anthropogenic habitat modification. Because population performance of these species is also influenced by non-anthropogenic factors, it is important to incorporate all relevant ecological drivers into demographic models. We used design-based sampling and occupancy models to test relationships of environmental factors that influence raptor demographics with re-occupancy of breeding territories by ferruginous hawks ( Buteo regalis ) across Wyoming, USA, 2011–2013. We also tested correlations of territory re-occupancy with oil and gas infrastructure—a leading cause of habitat modification throughout the range of this species of conservation concern. Probability of re-occupancy was not related to any covariates we investigated in 2011, had a strong negative relationship with cover of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) in 2012, was slightly higher for territories with artificial platforms than other nest substrates in 2013, and had a positive relationship with abundance of ground squirrels ( Urocitellus spp.) that was strong in 2012 and weak in 2013. Associations with roads were weak and varied by year, road-type, and scale: in 2012, re-occupancy probability had a weak positive correlation with density of roads not associated with oil and gas fields at the territory-scale; however, in 2013 re-occupancy had a very weak negative correlation with density of oil and gas field roads near nest sites (≤500 m). Although our results indicate re-occupancy of breeding territories by ferruginous hawks was compatible with densities of anthropogenic infrastructure in our study area, the lack of relationships between oil and gas well density and territory re-occupancy may have occurred because pre-treatment data were unavailable. We used probabilistic sampling at a broad spatial extent, methods to account for imperfect detection, and conducted extensive prey sampling; nonetheless, future research using before-after-control-impact designs is needed to fully assess impacts of oil and gas development on ferruginous hawks.

Wyoming↗

After-hatch and hatch year Buff-breasted Sandpipers (Calidris subruficollis) can be sexed accurately using morphometric measures

Determining the sex of birds quickly in the field can help in studies of behavior and distribution, and when selecting particular sexes for deploying tracking devices or collecting samples. However, discerning males from females is difficult in species that are plumage monomorphic and have overlapping sexual-size dimorphism, as in Buff-breasted Sandpipers Calidris subruficollis . We developed three discriminant functions to sex Buff-breasted Sandpipers based on measurements of live birds captured in Brazil whose sex was confirmed with molecular techniques. We validated these discriminant functions using morphometric measures from other independent samples of known-sex live birds from wintering (Brazil), migration (Texas), and breeding (Alaska) sites. Discriminant functions derived from birds captured in Brazil accurately sexed ≥88% of the validation sample from Brazil, Texas, and Alaska. Errors in classification occurred among males on the wintering (0–5%) and breeding (8–12%) grounds, and females during migration (0–11%). Discriminant functions worked well because of the substantial sexual size dimorphism present in the species, with male traits being in general 5.2–10.4% larger than female traits. The size of morphological traits did not vary by age (after controlling for sex) for birds sampled on the wintering grounds and during migration. Our results indicate that discriminant functions can be used to sex after-hatch year (AHY) Buff-breasted Sandpipers throughout their range, and for hatch year (HY) birds during their first southbound migration and winter. Being able to accurately sex both AHY and HY birds using only morphological measurements will improve studies of the ecology and population structure of this species and enhance the application of conservation measures.

Wader Study↗

Coupling contaminants with demography: Effects of lead and selenium in Pacific common eiders

We coupled intensive population monitoring with collection of blood samples from 383 nesting Pacific common eiders ( Somateria mollisima v-nigrum ) at two locations in Alaska (USA) from 2002 to 2004. We investigated annual, geographic, and within-season variation in blood concentrations of lead and selenium; compared exposure patterns with sympatrically nesting spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri ); and examined relationships with clutch size, egg viability, probability of hatching, and apparent survival of adult females. Lead concentrations were elevated in 3.6% of females, and all individuals exhibited elevated selenium, most (81%) at concentrations associated with death in captive waterfowl. Blood lead and selenium concentrations varied both within and among site-years and were lower than those of spectacled eiders. During incubation, blood lead concentrations in females increased significantly (possibly via re-release of stored lead from bone), whereas selenium concentrations decreased (likely because of natural excretion). Probability of a nest containing at least one nonviable egg was positively related to blood selenium in hens, but adverse effects in other life-history variables were not supported. Although reproduction appeared to be sensitive to selenium toxicity, our data suggest that high rates of nonviability are unlikely in this population and that selenium-related reductions to clutch size would be inconsequential at the scale of overall population dynamics. We conclude that Pacific common eiders and other wild marine birds likely have higher selenium tolerances than freshwater species and that interspecific differences in exposure levels may reflect differences in reproductive strategies.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Roosting habitat use by sandhill cranes and waterfowl on the North and South Platte Rivers in Nebraska

Migration ecology and habitat use of spring migrating birds using the Central Platte River is a well-explored topic, yet less is known about use of the North and South Platte rivers (NSPR) in western Nebraska. The efficiency and effectiveness of conservation efforts in the NSPR could be greatly improved with access to information about where and when birds roost and landscape prioritization tools. We used aerial surveys to determine population distribution and migration phenology of sandhill cranes Antigone canadensis , Canada geese Branta canadensis , and ducks using the NSPR for roosting during the mid-February to mid-April spring migration. We used these data and geospatial information to identify important river reaches for these species and habitat covariates that discriminate between those used at lower and higher densities. We found that sandhill cranes and waterfowl generally roosted in different segments of the NSPR and, subsequently, different factors were associated with high densities. Sandhill crane density was positively correlated with distance from obstructions greater than 1 m high and negatively correlated with area of unvegetated sandbar within 1 km. Density of Canada geese and ducks was high in segments positively associated with wetland and sand pit habitats. Human disturbance variables such as roads and bridges in this rural region had little effect on identification of roosting areas used by high densities of all groups. On the basis of our results, habitat conservation efforts that specifically target sandhill cranes will not have similar positive effects on waterfowl use and distribution in the NSPR. Our identification of the most important river segments should allow managers to better target land acquisition or management resources to areas that will have the greatest effect on either waterfowl or sandhill cranes during spring migration.

Nebraska↗

The five elements process: Designing optimal landscapes to meet bird conservation objectives

In February 2004 at Port Aransas, Texas, Partners in Flight (PIF) and representatives from the other NABCI bird initiative met to discuss the process of stepping down PIF continental population objectives (Rich et al. 2004) to regional and local scales. Participants also discussed rolling up local population estimates and targets to assess the feasibility of the landscape changes necessary to meet continental objectives. Since the process of stepping-down/rolling-up population objectives shifts focus from identifying priority species to formulating quantitative estimates of how much habitat was needed, where, and by when the Port Aransas group called the stepping-down/rolling-up process a??stepping forward.a?? Participants agreed that stepping forward objectives was the beginning of an inevitably iterative dialog necessary to evaluate the assumptions of PIF population estimates and objectives as well as the methods used to monitor local implementation. To facilitate the translation of continental population objectives into biologically sound, measurable regional and local population-based habitat targets the Port Aransas group recommended a process no commonly referred to as the Five Elements Processa?|

Partners in Flight Technical Series↗

Reliability of the Breeding Bird Survey: Effects of restricting surveys to roads

Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS), which are widely used to monitor trends in avian populations (e.g. Robbins et al. 1989, Sauer and Droege 1993), are conducted along roads but are used to infer changes in regionwide populations. Such inferences may be inaccurate if trends in habitat along roads differ from regionwide trends. For example, if forest cover regionwide remained constant but forest cover along roads declined (due for example to development), then BBS data for species found primarily in the forest might show declines despite regional populations being stable. We investigated this issue by measuring change in forest cover in western (i.e. unglaciated) Ohio (Fig. 1). Change in forest cover between 1963 and 1988 was determined for: (a) the complete study area; (b) areas 0 to 140 m from a road (inner roadside strip); and (c) areas 141 to 280 m from a road (outer roadside strip).

The Auk↗

Food specialization and radiation of Hawaiian honeycreepers

Hawaiian honeycreepers are renowned for adaptive radiation and diet specialization. Specialization arose from competition for the relatively few resources available in this remote archipelago and because arthropod prey sufficient to satisfy nestling protein requirements could only be captured by highly modified bills. Historically, most species fed their nestlings with larvae of the widespread geometrid moth genus, Scotorythra ; but other invertebrates were important also. Thus the palila, Loxioides bailleui , a specialist on potentially toxic Sophora chrysophylla seeds, feeds its nestlings on Cydia moth larvae found inside Sophora seeds. Sophora seeds are also fed to the nestlings, and seed availability largely determines the timing and extent of breeding. By this and other means, food specialization contributed to reproductive isolation in Loxioides and possibly other honeycreepers. Alien threats to insect prey affect Loxioides populations and have hastened the extinction or decline of other specialized Hawaiian birds

Acta Zoologica Sinica↗

Inferring Brown-Capped Rosy-Finch demography and breeding distribution trends from long-term wintering data in New Mexico

The three North American Rosy-Finch species (Brown-capped [ Leucosticte australis ], Black [ L. atrata ], and Gray-crowned [ L. tephrocotis ]) are among the most climate-threatened species in the United States. New Mexico is an important location for investigating the effects of climate change because it is the southernmost location in which Brown-capped Rosy-Finches breed and the southernmost location where all three Rosy-Finch species co-occur during winter. In the context of climate change, this range boundary is important to study because it is the first part of the range anticipated to cross a threshold of unsuitability for these species with increasing temperatures. Rosy-Finches are difficult to study during the breeding season due to the high elevation and remoteness of their breeding grounds; therefore, winter studies may lend insight into population trends and provide direction for conservation actions based on knowledge of the breeding origins of wintering birds. The goals of our study were to investigate long-term survival and migration trends from wintering Brown-capped Rosy-Finches in New Mexico and evaluate the efficacy of radio frequency identification (RFID)-equipped artificial feeders to monitor population trends. As of May 2025, we have conducted a robust design survival analysis on 22 years of mark-recapture data from a particular wintering site in New Mexico, assessed patterns in the breeding origins of individuals captured at this site using stable isotope analysis, and examined patterns in data collected via RFID. Our main findings from this study are that annual survival probability of Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico is low compared to that of other migratory passerines, that Brown-capped Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico likely originate from a variety of locations across their breeding range, and that RFID monitoring is useful in improving survival estimates in Rosy-Finches, particularly in short-term studies.

New Mexico↗

Local annual survival and seasonal residency rates of Semipalmated Sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ) in Puerto Rico

We report seasonal residency and local annual survival rates of migratory Semipalmated Sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ) at the Cabo Rojo salt flats, Puerto Rico. Residency rate (daily probability of remaining on the flats) was 0.991 ± 0.001 ( x̄ ± SE), yielding a mean length of stay of 110 days. This finding supports the inclusion of the Caribbean as part of the species' winter range. Average estimated percentage of fat was low but increased throughout the season, which suggests that birds replenish some spent fat reserves and strive for energetic maintenance. Local annual survival rate was 0.62 ± 0.04, within the range of values reported for breeding populations at Manitoba and Alaska (0.53–0.76). The similarity was not unexpected because estimates were obtained annually but at opposite sites of their annual migratory movements. Birds captured at the salt flats appeared to be a mix of birds from various parts of the breeding range, judging from morphology (culmen's coefficient of variation = 9.1, n = 106). This suggested that origin (breeding area) of birds and their proportion in the data should be ascertained and accounted for in analyses to glean the full conservation implications of winter-based annual survival estimates. Those data are needed to unravel the possibility that individuals of distinct populations are affected by differential mortality factors across different migratory routes. Mean length of stay strongly suggested that habitat quality at the salt flats was high. Rainfall and tidal flow combine to increase food availability during fall. The salt flats dry up gradually toward late January, at the onset of the dry season. Semipalmated Sandpipers may move west to other Greater Antilles or south to sites such as coastal Surinam until the onset of spring migration. They are not an oversummering species at the salt flats. Conservation efforts in the Caribbean region require understanding the dynamics of this species throughout winter to protect essential habitat.

The Auk↗

The austral peregrine falcon: Color variation, productivity, and pesticides

The austral peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus cassini) was studied in the Andean foot- hills and across the Patagonian steppe from November to December 1981. The birds under study (18 pairs) were reproducing at or near normal (pre-DDT) levels for other races. Pesticide residues, while elevated, were well below the values associated with reproductive failure in other populations. With one exception, eggshells were not abnormally thin. The peregrine falcon in Patagonia exhibits extreme color variation. Pallid birds are nearly pure white below (light cream as juveniles), whereas normally pigmented birds are black-crowned and conspicuously barred with black ventrally. Rare individuals of the Normal Phase display black heads, broad black ventral barring, and warm reddish-brown ventral background coloration.

National Geographic Research↗