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USGS2018

Unusual foraging observations associated with seabird die-offs in Alaska

We report the first documentation of off-water foraging by the Fork-tailed Storm-Petrel Oceanodroma furcata and Short-tailed Shearwater Ardenna tenuirostris, a behavior not previously documented in any member of the families Hydrobatidae or Procellariidae. Over a two-week period in September 2016, we regularly observed individuals of these species over land on an extensive intertidal zone on the Bristol Bay coast of the Alaska Peninsula. We documented irregular feeding behaviors by storm-petrels, including pattering over shallow water and sand, digging into sand to uncover food items, and feeding on beach-cast fish. We revisited the site in August 2017 and did not observe storm-petrels, but we observed four shearwaters feeding on a beach-cast fish. The aberrant feeding behaviors, paucity of stomach contents and emaciated body condition of salvaged and collected birds, together with patterns between bird occurrence and wind speed and direction, indicate to us that these birds were blown to shore while weakened by food stress or compromised health. We further suggest that these aberrant feeding behaviors may be related to massive seabird die-offs that occurred in this region during 2014–2016, die-offs in which Forktailed Storm-Petrels have heretofore not been reported as a species affected by this phenomenon.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2016

The Outer Banks of North Carolina

The Outer Banks of North Carolina are excellent examples of the nearly 300 barrier islands rimming the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. These low, sandy islands are among the most dynamic natural landscapes occupied by man. Beach sands move offshore, onshore, and along the shore in the direction of the prevailing longshore currents. In this way, sandy coasts continuously adjust to different tide, wave, and current conditions and to rising sea level that causes the islands to migrate landward. Despite such changes, barrier islands are of considerable environmental importance. The Outer Banks are home to diverse natural ecosystems that are adapted to the harsh coastal environment. Native species tend to be robust and many are specifically adapted to withstand salt spray, periodic saltwater flooding, and the islands’ well-drained sandy soil. The Outer Banks provide an important stopover for birds on the Atlantic flyway, and many species inhabit the islands year round. In addition, Outer Banks beaches provide an important nesting habitat for five endangered or threatened sea turtle species. European explorers discovered North Carolina’s barrier islands in the 16th century, although the islands were not permanently settled until the middle 17th century. By the early 19th century, shipbuilding and lumber industries were among the most successful, until forest resources were depleted. Commercial fishing eventually followed, and it expanded considerably after the Civil War. By the Great Depression, however, little industry existed on the Outer Banks. In response to the effects of a severe hurricane in 1933, the National Park Service and the Civilian Conservation Corps proposed a massive sand-fixation program to stabilize the moving sand and prevent storm waves from sweeping across the entire width of some sections of the islands. Between 1933 and 1940, this program constructed sand fencing on 185 kilometers (115 miles) of beach and planted grass seedlings, trees, and shrubs. In 1937, Congress authorized the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, which was established in 1953. The national seashore preserved one of the world’s best examples of a barrier island environment, and minimized the effect of erosion that was becoming a serious problem. In 1966, Congress authorized the Cape Lookout National Seashore to ensure that Core and Shackleford Banks would not undergo major development and could be preserved in their natural state. The rate of population growth along the Outer Banks in recent decades has been among the highest in North Carolina. More important, however, has been the growth in vacationers—in 2008, more than a quarter of a million visitors during a typical week. Municipalities now need to provide services to a transient population as much as six times as large as their permanent resident population. Although human activities have dominated the landscape changes observed on the Outer Banks for the past century or two, these changes must be understood in the context of the prevailing atmospheric, oceanic, and geologic processes that have governed the form and function of these islands for thousands of years. It is these natural processes that imbue the Outer Banks with their unique and dichotomous qualities of tranquility and tumult. In the presence of human occupation, it is these same processes that make the islands one of the highest natural-hazard risk zones along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States.

North Carolina↗

USGS2007

Space use by Black-necked Stilts Himantopus mexicanus in the San Francisco Bay estuary

We examined space use by Black-necked Stilts Himantopus mexicanus in the San Francisco Bay estuary, USA, to better understand how shorebirds use their Pacific Flyway landscape. These efforts are particularly important in the San Francisco Bay estuary where ongoing large-scale restoration projects are rapidly changing the mosaic of wetland habitats. We radio-marked 59 stilts and tracked individuals for up to four months and found no difference in home range size by sex or between North and South Bay subregions. We did find differences in home range size by capture site. Mean home range was 283.5 ha and movement from capture sites was 4.5 km. We used cluster analysis to calculate number of focal areas for individuals and found that overall space requirements were larger for stilts with multiple centres of activity. Birds with multiple use areas were often those that bred in vegetated marshes and moved into salt ponds when their nests failed or after chicks hatched. In the South Bay subregion, salt pond use was greater than availability in core use home range areas despite comprising the largest proportion of available habitat. Tidal salt marsh restoration from former salt ponds may reduce available habitat of invertebrate prey species that depend on hypersaline habitats; retention of some shallow, mid-salinity managed ponds may mitigate this loss. A better understanding of the space use and habitat requirements of stilts will provide for more specific habitat and management recommendations in areas targeted for wetland restoration, contributing to better conservation of shorebird populations along the Pacific Flyway.

Ardea↗

USGS2026

Spatially concentrating logging could mitigate climate-magnified fragmentation risks to a globally endangered bird

1. Rising timber demand is transforming forest structure globally, profoundly affecting biodiversity and climate resilience. Logging-driven fragmentation is potentially a major driver of biodiversity loss in production landscapes, yet its interactions with escalating climate stressors remain poorly understood. 2. We combine two decades of Landsat-derived habitat metrics with 29,000 surveys of the marbled murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus )—an iconic Pacific Northwest old-forest specialist seabird affecting management of >10 million hectares. Controlling for habitat amount and detection probability, increasing landscape-scale forest edge amount sharply reduces murrelet occupancy, with impacts worsening under unfavourable climate-driven ocean conditions. 3. Comparing alternative landscape-scale timber harvest strategies, spatially concentrated logging consistently supports higher murrelet populations than fragmented approaches producing equivalent wood volumes, with benefits amplified under adverse ocean conditions. However, historical harvesting policies in the Pacific Northwest have instead driven severe habitat fragmentation, which we show is eroding the value of core set-aside forests on federal and conservation lands and ultimately rendering murrelets more vulnerable to climate change. 4. Synthesis and applications : We map key opportunities to boost populations by reducing edginess around remaining nesting habitat and investigate these opportunities' spatial distribution across land ownership and timber productivity gradients. Concentrating logging could be critical for mitigating fragmentation and climate threats for murrelets and potentially other forest-dependent species amid rising timber demand.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2000

Space use of killdeer at a Great Basin breeding area

Wetland conservation efforts require knowledge of space use by a diversity of waterbirds. However, determining space use of animals requires intensive monitoring of individual organisms. Often, activity patterns during much of the annual cycle are neglected in analyses of home range and habitat use. From 1995-97, we monitored space use in a population of individually marked killdeer ( Charadrius vociferus ) that breed, and reside for a number of additional months each year, in the western Great Basin. We used linear distance measures and home range-area estimates, derived by fixed-kernel methods, to examine patterns of space use of adults prior to, during, and following nesting. Overall, killdeer used a local area of approximately 6 ha. Birds remained closer to nests while tending eggs than either before or after nesting, although extensive movements away from the nest were observed during all time periods. Females tended to move farther from nests than did males. Birds nesting farther from water bodies were generally observed at greater distances from nests than those nesting closer to shorelines during all time periods. Twenty-seven percent of individuals were observed greater than 1 km from nest locations, particularly during postnesting periods. During nesting periods, males were less likely to be observed at longer distances from nests than were females. There were no differences in home range size based upon sex, time period, or distance from water. We suggest that home range size may not always accurately measure differences in space use and that multiple measures, including distance from nests, should be considered. Understanding the sedentary nature of killdeer during much of the annual cycle and their intense use of local areas is important for making management decisions. Coupled with data on other shorebird species, this information also has broader implications for management of wetland systems by indicating large scale spatial and habitat requirements and the connectivity of geographically distinct habitat patches.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2007

Yellow-Billed Cuckoo Distribution, Abundance, and Habitat Use Along the Lower Colorado and Tributaries, 2006 Annual Report

Executive Summary This 2006 annual report details the first season of a 2-year study documenting western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis) distribution, abundance, and habitat use throughout the Lower Colorado River Multi-Species Conservation Plan boundary area. We conducted cuckoo surveys at 55 sites within 17 areas, between 11 June and 13 September. The 243 visits across all sites yielded 180 yellow-billed cuckoo detections. Cuckoos were detected at 27 of the 55 sites, primarily at the Bill Williams River National Wildlife Refuge AZ sites (n = 117 detections) and the Grand Canyon National Park-Lake Mead National Recreation Area AZ delta sites (n = 29 detections). There were also cuckoos at the Gila River-Colorado River Confluence, AZ (n = 9), Overton Wildlife Management, NV area (n = 7), and Limitrophe Division North, AZ (n = 6); however, at these sites the numbers were much lower and very few of these birds were considered to be paired or breeding. The greatest number of detections (n = 79) occurred during the second survey period (3-23 July). In 2006, we confirmed five breeding events, including one nesting observation and sightings of four juveniles; all confirmed breeding was at the Bill Williams River NWR and Grand Canyon NP-Lake Mead NRA delta sites. The breeding status of most of our detections were unknown, however, we observed 17 adult cuckoos carrying nest material or food and 40 cuckoo detections were detected while counter-calling occurred in same area during repeated surveys. We used playback recordings to survey for western yellow-billed cuckoos. Compared to simple point counts or surveys, this method increases the number of detections of this secretive, elusive species. It has long been suspected that cuckoos have a fairly low response rate, and that the standard survey method of using playback recordings may fail to detect all birds present in an area. In 2006, we found that the majority (72%) of cuckoo detections were solicited through playback at all study sites. The number of solicited detections peaked during the first half of July and then declined as the breeding season progressed, while the number of unsolicited detections (cuckoos heard calling before playback was initiated) remained fairly constant. The majority (64%) of cuckoo detections, solicited or unsolicited, were aural; 27 percent were both heard and seen and nine percent were visual detections only. Cuckoos in areas with the largest populations had the highest rate of vocalizations before playback or after the first broadcast. In contrast, more than half the responses at sites with fewer cuckoos (with < 10 detections per site) first occurred after three or more playback recordings. This type of baseline information will be used to help refine the survey protocol for 2007, and to create hypotheses that can serve as the foundation for a full-scale evaluation and optimization of this survey technique. Our preliminary analysis of vegetation data from occupied and unoccupied sites in 2006 focused on general patterns in the distribution and abundance of woody species. The density and composition of woody riparian vegetation varied considerably among the study areas. Much of the variation in tree density was due to the patterns of abundance of trees in the smallest size class (< 8 cm dbh). The dominant tree species at the cuckoo survey sites were cottonwood, willow, and tamarisk. Tamarisk was the most common tree, due to the abundance of small (< 8 cm dbh) individuals. When occupied and unoccupied sites were compared, occupied sites tended to have higher average canopy cover, attributable to higher average cover of the mid and low canopy. The dominant canopy at occupied sites most often consisted of cottonwood or willow trees. In addition, occupied sites in most areas had lower than average total tree density whereas unoccupied sites were denser than average. When densities of trees in different size classes were com

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Adult and hatch-year survival and fidelity of Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, USA

Knowledge of vital rates informs the conservation and management of threatened and endangered species. In the northern Great Plains, USA, the federally threatened Piping Plover Charadrius melodus uses a variety of nesting habitats including natural river sandbars and human-created sites in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska. In this area, off-river sandpit sites (i.e., active sand and gravel mines, transition sites, and lakeshore housing developments) are not managed to prioritize nesting and are often considered inferior habitat to sandbars. However, most Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system nest off river, especially in years when sandbar habitat is limited. As the quantity of habitat provided at off-river sites is predicted to decline, evaluating vital rates among different off-river nesting habitats will inform future conservation efforts. We estimated annual survival and fidelity of adult (n = 165) and hatch-year (n = 671) Piping Plovers from 2008 to 2018 and within-season weekly survival of breeding adults (n = 271) from 2011 to 2024. Annual adult survival was 0.771 (95% CI = 0.733–0.804) and hatch-year survival was 0.394 (0.335–0.456). Fidelity to the study area was 0.737 (0.634–0.819) for adults and 0.261 (0.192–0.345) for hatch-years. Within-season apparent weekly survival was higher for Piping Plovers at lakeshore housing developments (0.946 [85% CI = 0.917–0.965]) than sand and gravel mines (0.909 [0.874–0.935]) and transition sites (0.881 [0.834–0.928]). Annual survival of adult and hatch-year birds were comparable to other studies and regions within the Northern Great Plains population, indicating no negative consequence of off-river nesting to survival. Considering that off-river habitats are important for the persistence of Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system, continued monitoring of survival could help managers evaluate recovery implications under uncertain future habitat availability in the region.

Nebraska↗

USGS2005

Grass buffers for playas in agricultural landscapes: An annotated bibliography

This bibliography and associated literature synthesis (Melcher and Skagen, 2005) was developed for the Playa Lakes Joint Venture (PLJV). The PLJV sought compilation and annotation of the literature on grass buffers for protecting playas from runoff containing sediments, nutrients, pesticides, and other contaminants. In addition, PLJV sought information regarding the extent to which buffers may attenuate the precipitation runoff needed to fill playas, and avian use of buffers. We emphasize grass buffers, but we also provide information on other buffer types. There are a number of relatively synonymous terms that describe grass buffers for wetlands. They include: buffer strip, vegetated filter strip (VFS), grass buffer, grass filter, grass hedge, and grassed waterway (GW), among others (see McKague and others, 1996). Although some of these terms represent slightly different designs, placements, and/or purposes, they all perform similar functions. In this document, we use ‘buffer’ and VFS more or less interchangeably; other types are specified by name (e.g., grass hedges). Our bibliography is by no means exhaustive, as the body of literature potentially relevant to playas and wetland buffers is vast. Thus, we attempted to include and annotate at least 1–3 papers by numerous researchers heavily involved in buffer research and modeling. We also included single papers by other researchers to increase the spectrum of regional focus, watershed/wetland conditions, research approaches, researcher expertise, and the time over which buffer theories/practices have evolved. We found virtually no literature specific to buffers for playas (confirmed by D.A. Haukos, oral. commun., 2005); thus, we conducted interviews with playa scientists to glean information on possible buffer design and management specifically for playas. We did, however, find a significant body of literature on the results of controlled experiments designed to test buffer effectiveness, an important first step towards validating buffer effectiveness in real-world situations. Of the literature on playa ecology, flora, and wildlife, we found that most focuses on playa basins and wetlands rather than the surrounding uplands and grasslands; furthermore, most of the empirical work on playa ecology has taken place in the Southern High Plains (SHP; i.e., Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas) because many wetlands in other portions of the PLJV region (Fig. 1) were only recently recognized as playas. Finally, we found few papers on avian use of buffers; therefore, we focused on those that report on avian use of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) fields or lands enrolled in similar programs. References on best management practices (BMPs) for agricultural lands were included because certain BMPs are crucial for informing decisions about buffer design/ effectiveness and overall playa ecology. We also included various papers that increase the spectrum of time over which buffer theories and practices have evolved. An unannotated section lists references that we did not prioritize for annotation and references that may be helpful but were beyond the scope of this document. Finally, we provide notes on conversations we had with scientists, land managers, and other buffer experts whom we consulted, and their contact information. We conclude the bibliography with appendices of common and scientific names of birds and plants and acronyms used in both the bibliography. In the annotations, italicized text signifies our own editorial remarks. Readers should also note that much of the work on buffers has been designed using English units of measure rather than metrics; in most cases, their results have been converted to metrics for publication, explaining the seemingly odd or irregular buffer widths and other parameters reported.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Summer-time use of west coast U. S. National Marine Sanctuaries by migrating sooty shearwaters ( Puffinus griseus )

Non-breeding sooty shearwaters are the most abundant seabird in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) during boreal spring and summer months. This, combined with relatively great energy demands, reliance on patchy, shoaling prey (krill, squid, and forage fishes), and unconstrained mobility free from central-place-foraging demands—make shearwaters useful indicators of ecosystem variability. During 2008 and 2009, we used satellite telemetry to evaluate shearwater ranging patterns throughout the CCLME and specifically within the US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) among birds captured at three locations: Columbia River Plume, WA; Monterey Bay, CA; and Santa Barbara Channel, CA. Shearwaters ranged throughout the entire CCLME from southeast Alaska to southern Baja California, Mexico. Within the EEZ during 2008 and 2009, shearwaters spent 68% and 46% of time over the shelf (<200 m), 27% and 43% of time over the slope (200–1000 m), and 5% and 11% of time over the continental rise and abyssal regions (>1000 m), respectively. In 2008 and 2009, shearwaters spent 22% and 25% of their time in the EEZ within the five west coast National Marine Sanctuaries, respectively; high utilization occurred in non-sanctuary waters of the EEZ. Shearwater utilization distribution (based on the Brownianbridge movement model) among sanctuaries was disproportionate according to sanctuary availability (based on area) within the EEZ. Shearwaters utilized the Monterey Bay sanctuary (2008, 2009) and the Channel Islands sanctuary (2009) disproportionately more than other sanctuaries. Although all five sanctuaries were used by shearwaters, waters outside sanctuary zones appeared significantly more important and likely supported large aggregations of shearwaters. Utilization distributions among individual birds from three discrete capture locations were variable and revealed greater similarity in space-use sharing within capture-location groupings and during 2008 when shearwaters were more aggregated than in 2009. We identified several regional ‘‘habitat hotspot’’ areas, including the Columbia River Plume, Cape Blanco, Monterey Bay, Estero/San Luis Obispo Bays, and the eastern Santa Barbara Channel through the inner Southern California Bight.

California;Washington↗

USGS2006

Pelagic seabird surveys in the Tuamotu and Gambier Archipelagos, French Polynesia

We conducted pelagic seabird surveys in the Gambier and Tuamotu Archipelagos in the southeastern Pacific Ocean totaling 40 hours during 7-27 March 2003 and 22.5 hours during 22-27 July 2001. We used a 300-m-wide strip transect to estimate seabird density, and we estimated relative abundance of birds at all distances. In 2001, we observed a total of 326 birds of 18 species. The mean relative abundance of all birds was 14.3 ?? 3.1/h. Red-footed Booby Sula sula was the most abundant species (5.6/h), followed by White Tern Gygis alba (3.4/h), and Great Crested or Swift Tern Sterna bergii (1.2/h). In 2003, we observed a total of 1463 birds of 25 species. The mean relative abundance of all birds was 36.6 ?? 11.4/h and the mean density of all birds was 4.14 ?? 0.72/km2. Brown Noddy Anous stolidus was the most abundant species (17.6/h, 1.5/km2), followed by White Tern (8.4/h, 1.3/km2), and Red-footed Booby (4.6/h, 0.8/km2). Several globally or locally rare species were observed infrequently, including Phoenix Petrel Pterodroma alba (0.1/h, 0.03/km2). Distribution of birds was uneven, with long periods of no birds punctuated by occasional feeding flocks. In 2003, species diversity was related to length of observation period, with more species observed on longer segments (r2 = 0.58, F1.5 = 6.03, P = 0.05). Although the duration and extent of our surveys were limited, these data are valuable because little published information is available on pelagic seabirds in southeastern Polynesia.

French Polynesia↗

USGS2022

In hot water? Patterns of macroinvertebrate abundance in Arctic thaw ponds and relationships with environmental variables

Ongoing environmental change across the Arctic is affecting many freshwater ecosystems, including small thaw ponds that support macroinvertebrates, thus potentially affecting important forage for fish and bird species. To accurately predict how fish and wildlife that depend on these macroinvertebrates will be affected by ecosystem change at high latitudes, understanding proximate factors that influence macroinvertebrate abundance is critical. To better understand factors that affect spatial and seasonal (i.e. phenology) patterns in abundance, we collected macroinvertebrates throughout the growing season of a single year from 33 thaw ponds on the Arctic Coastal Plain in northern Alaska. We used hierarchical N -mixture models to provide detection-corrected estimates of abundance (of the population exposed to sampling) in relation to pond type and seasonal patterns in environmental variables (i.e., cumulative water temperature, nutrient levels) for five taxonomic groups representing key food items for birds and fish—Anostraca (Arthropoda: Branchiopoda), Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera), Cladocera (Arthropoda: Branchiopoda), Limnephilidae (Insecta: Trichoptera), and Physidae (Mollusca: Gastropoda). For three of five taxa (Anostraca, Cladocera, Limnephilidae), abundance varied across pond types and was lower in pond types where water temperatures increased more rapidly. Further, seasonal temperature profiles in ponds affected phenology, suggesting that seasonal patterns in abundance were influenced by changes in water temperature. These findings suggest that increases in water temperature in northern areas could alter macroinvertebrate phenology, possibly with consequences for upper level predators if availability of macroinvertebrate prey is reduced or shifted seasonally. Our results will facilitate improved predictions of how changing abiotic conditions could affect inland waters in northern areas, a critical need for conservation of Arctic wildlife and ecosystems.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Northern bobwhite occupancy patterns on multiple spatial scales across Arkansas

Northern bobwhite Colinus virginianus populations have been rapidly declining in the eastern, central, and southern United States for decades. Land use change and an incompatibility between northern bobwhite resource needs and human land use practices have driven declines. Here, we applied occupancy analyses on two spatial scales (state level and ecoregion level) to more than 5,000 northern bobwhite surveys conducted over 6 y across the entire state of Arkansas to explore patterns in occupancy and land use variables, and to identify priority areas for management and conservation. At the state level, northern bobwhite occupied 29% of sites and northern bobwhite were most likely to occur in areas with a high percentage of early successional habitat (grassland, pasture, and shrubland). The statewide model predicted that northern bobwhite were likely to occur (≥ 75% predicted occupancy) in < 20% of the state. Arkansas is comprised of five distinct ecoregions, and analyses at the ecoregion spatial scale showed that habitat associations of northern bobwhite could vary between ecoregions. For example, early successional habitat best predicted northern bobwhite occupancy in both the Arkansas River Valley and Ozark Mountains ecoregions, and other habitat associations such as the proportion of herbaceous habitat and hay-pasture habitat, respectively, further refined predictions. Contrastingly, richness of land cover classes alone best predicted northern bobwhite occupancy in the Ouachita Mountains ecoregion. Ecoregion-level models were thus more discerning than the state-level model and should be more helpful to managers in identifying priority conservation areas. However, in two of five ecoregions, surveys too rarely encountered northern bobwhite to accurately predict their occurrence. We found that likely occupied northern bobwhite habitat lay primarily on private properties (95%), but that numerous public entities own and manage land identified as suitable or likely occupied. We conclude that management of northern bobwhite in Arkansas could benefit from cooperation among state, federal, and military partners, as well as surrounding private landowners and that ecoregion-specific models may be more useful in identifying priority areas for management. Our approach incorporates multiple landscape scales when using remote sensing technology in conjunction with monitoring data and could have important application for the management of northern bobwhite and other grassland bird species.

Arkansas↗

USGS1989

Population trends of North American shorebirds based on the International Shorebird Survey

Shorebirds Charadrii are prime candidates for population decline because of their dependence on wetlands that are being lost at a rapid pace. Thirty-six of the 49 species of shorebirds that breed in North America spend most of the year in Latin America. Because populations of most species breed and winter at remote sites, it may be most feasible to monitor their numbers at migration stopovers. In this study, we used statistical trend analysis methods, developed for the North America Breeding Bird Survey, to analyze data on shorebird populations during southbound migration in the United States. Survey data were collected by volunteers in the International Shorebird Survey (ISS). The analyses indicate that whimbrels Numenius phaeopus , short-billed dowitchers Limnodromus griseus , and sanderlings Calidris alba have undergone statistically significant declines. Methodological concerns over both the ISS and the trend analysis procedures are discussed in detail and biological interpretations of the results are suggested.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2020

The relationship between biodiversity and wetland cover varies across regions of the conterminous United States

Identifying the factors that determine the spatial distribution of biodiversity is a major focus of ecological research. These factors vary with scale from interspecific interactions to global climatic cycles. Wetlands are important biodiversity hotspots and contributors of ecosystem services, but the association between proportional wetland cover and species richness has shown mixed results. It is not well known as to what extent there is a relationship between proportional wetland cover and species richness, especially at the sub-continental scale. We used the National Wetlands Inventory to model wetland cover for the conterminous United States and the National Land Cover Database to estimate wetland change between 2001 and 2011. We used a Bayesian spatial Poisson model to estimate a spatially varying coefficient surface describing the effect of proportional wetland cover on the distribution of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles and the cumulative distribution of terrestrial endemic species. Species richness and wetland cover were significantly correlated, and this relationship varied both spatially and by taxonomic group. Rather than a continental-scale association, however, we found that this relationship changed more closely among ecoregions. The species richness of each of the five groups was positively associated with wetland cover in some or all of the Great Plains; additionally, a positive association was found for mammals in the Southeastern Plains and Piedmont of the eastern U.S. Model results indicated negative association especially in the Cold Deserts and Northern Lakes & Forests of Minnesota and Wisconsin, though these varied greatly between groups. Our results highlight the need for wetland conservation initiatives that focus efforts at the level II and III ecoregional scale rather than along political boundaries.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2016

Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

USGS2012

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2017

Influence of restored koa in supporting bird communities

Deforestation of Hawaiian forests has adversely impacted native wildlife, including forest birds, bats and arthropods. Restoration activities have included reforestation with the native koa (Acacia koa), a dominant canopy tree species that is easy to propagate, has high survivorship, and has fast growth rates. We review recent research describing the ecological benefits of koa restoration on wildlife colonization/use, plant dispersal, and native plant recruitment. In general, planting monotypic koa stands can provide forest habitats for species that need them but does not automatically lead to natural regeneration of a diverse forest species assemblage and may require additional restoration activities such as outplanting of other native plants and alien grass control to achieve more natural forest systems. Although early signs of forest and wildlife recovery have been encouraging, the goals of restoration for wildlife conservation versus commercial grade harvesting require different restoration methods.

Hawai'i↗