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Alaska natural gas hydrate production testing: Test site selection, characterization and testing operations

This Interagency Agreement supports the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its research partners in understanding, predicting, and testing the recoverability and potential production characteristics of onshore natural gas hydrate in the Greater Prudhoe Bay area on the Alaska North Slope (ANS: Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk River, and Milne Point areas) or other areas deemed suitable by DOE and USGS for potential long-term production testing of gas hydrate. Researchers will accomplish these tasks by evaluating the occurrence and resource potential of the known gas hydrate accumulations in the Eileen trend. Geologic, geochemical, and geophysical (2-D and 3-D seismic surveys) data from northern Alaska and other data sources, including wireline and mud log surveys of wells of opportunity, will be used to assess the occurrence and nature of the known gas hydrate accumulations. The project involves two primary areas of effort: the geologic and engineering assessment of the Eileen gas-hydrate accumulation and support of DOE and its industry partners in evaluating, planning, and preparing for drilling and testing gas hydrate research wells in northern Alaska.

Alaska↗

Summer/fall diet and macronutrient assimilation in an Arctic predator

Free-ranging predator diet estimation is commonly achieved by applying molecular-based tracers because direct observation is not logistically feasible or robust. However, tracers typically do not represent all dietary macronutrients, which likely obscures resource use as prey proximate composition varies and tissue consumption can be specific. For example, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) preferentially consume blubber, yet diets have been estimated using fatty acids based on prey blubber or stable isotopes of lipid-extracted prey muscle, neither of which represent both protein and lipid macronutrient contributions. Further, additional bias can be introduced because dietary fat is known to be flexibly routed beyond short-term energy production and storage. We address this problem by simultaneously accounting for protein and lipid assimilation using carbon and nitrogen isotope compositions of lipid-containing prey muscle and blubber to infer summer/fall diet composition and macronutrient proportions from Chukchi Sea polar bear guard hair ( n = 229) sampled each spring between 2008 and 2017. Inclusion of blubber (85–95% lipid by dry mass) expanded the isotope mixing space and improved separation among prey species. Ice-associated seals, including nutritionally dependent pups, were the primary prey in summer/fall diets with lower contributions by Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus ) and whales. Percent blubber estimates confirmed preferential selection of this tissue and represented the highest documented lipid assimilation for any animal species. Our results offer an improved understanding of summer/fall prey macronutrient usage by Chukchi Sea polar bears which likely coincides with a nutritional bottleneck as the sea ice minimum is approached.

Alaska↗

Influence of fine-scale habitat characteristics on sage-grouse nest site selection and nest survival varies by mesic and xeric site conditions

Resource managers and scientists across western U.S. agencies seek methodologies for identifying environmental attributes important to both wildlife conservation and broad-scale land stewardship. The Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) exemplifies a species in need of this broad-scale approach given widespread population declines that have resulted from loss and degradation of habitat from natural and anthropogenic disturbances. These include agricultural land conversion, conifer expansion, energy development, and wildfire coupled with ecological conversion by invasive plants such as cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ). Development of habitat assessments and conservation actions for sage-grouse benefit from studies that link demographic responses to habitat selection patterns. To address this, we examined nest survival of sage-grouse in relation to fine-scale habitat patterns (i.e., field-based habitat measurements) that influenced nest site selection, using data from nests of telemetered females at 17 sites over 6 years in Nevada and northeastern California, USA. Importantly, sites spanned mesic and xeric average precipitation conditions that contributed substantially to vegetation community structure across cold desert ecosystems of the North American Great Basin. Vegetative cover immediately surrounding sage-grouse nests was important for both nest site selection and nest survival, but responses varied between mesic and xeric sites. For example, while taller perennial grasses were selected at xeric sites, we found no evidence of selection for perennial grass at mesic sites, indicating a functional response to availability of habitat features between hydrographic regions. Furthermore, perennial grass height and forb height both had positive effects on nest survival at xeric sites, but we found varying effects at mesic sites. We emphasize that precipitation conditions driving ecosystem productivity vary regionally among sagebrush communities, shaping vegetation structure and suitable habitat conditions for nesting sage-grouse.

Ornithological Applications↗

Geology of the central Copper River region, Alaska

It is an interesting evidence of the prompt responsiveness of our governmental organization to popular needs that the year 1898, which saw the first rush of argonauts to Alaska as a result of the discovery of the Klondike in 1986, saw also several well-equipped Federal parties at work in the Territory, mapping its great waterways and mountain ranges, investigating the feasible means of transportation within it, laying out routes for future lines of communication, and studying the mineral resources and the plant and animal life. It is true that before that year, in which the general attention of the world was fixed upon our heretofore lightly regarded northern province, fur traders, adventurous travelers, and hardy prospectors had made little-heralded journeys through the interior, and that one or another of the governmental departments had had representatives on special errands within its borders, but the amount of private and public energy expended there in 1898 probably exceeded that of any ten previous years.

Alaska↗

Dynamic rating method for computing discharge and stage from time-series data

Ratings are used for several reasons in water-resources investigations. The simplest rating relates discharge to the stage of a river (the stage-discharge relation). From a pure hydrodynamics perspective, all rivers and streams have some form of hysteresis in the relation between stage and discharge because flow becomes unsteady as a flood wave passes. The stage-discharge relation is unable to represent hysteresis. However, a dynamic rating method can capture hysteresis, which is driven by the variable energy slope of a flood wave. A dynamic rating method called DYNPOUND, which accommodates compact and compound channel geometry, was developed by simplifying the one-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The DYNPOUND method was developed in the Python programming language and computes discharge from stage and stage from discharge. Stage and discharge time series computed with this dynamic rating method were compared to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published stage and discharge time series. The results from the DYNPOUND method were also compared to in-person field measurements of stage and discharge made at 10 USGS streamgages. DYNPOUND was calibrated for 10 USGS streamgages using published discharge time-series data computed with a simple rating method. The calibration objective was to minimize the mean squared logarithmic error (MSLE) of the DYNPOUND-computed discharge with respect to the discharge time series computed by a simple rating method. For each site, the calibration process also included comparing all field measurements within a selected water year to the corresponding DYNPOUND-computed discharge data points. The MSLE of the DYNPOUND-computed discharge time series for the 10 sites ranged from 8.51×10 −4 to 1.36×10 −1 . For each site, an event-based period was selected to compare the discharge time series computed with the dynamic rating method to discharge field measurements made at the streamgages; the range of MSLE for the 10 DYNPOUND-computed discharge sites was from 4.79×10 −4 to 2.30×10 −2 .

continental United States↗

Effects of climatic variation on field metabolism and water relations of desert tortoises

We used the doubly labeled water method to measure the field metabolic rates (FMRs, in kJ kg −1 day −1 ) and water flux rates (WIRs, in ml H 2 O kg −1 day −1 ) of adult desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) in three parts of the Mojave Desert in California over a 3.5-year period, in order to develop insights into the physiological responses of this threatened species to climate variation among sites and years. FMR, WIR, and the water economy index (WEI, in ml H 2 O kJ −1 , an indicator of drinking of free water) differed extensively among seasons, among study sites, between sexes, and among years. In high-rainfall years, males had higher FMRs than females. Average daily rates of energy and water use by desert tortoises were extraordinarily variable: 28-fold differences in FMR and 237-fold differences in WIR were measured. Some of this variation was due to seasonal conditions, with rates being low during cold winter months and higher in the warm seasons. However, much of the variation was due to responses to year-to-year variation in rainfall. Annual spring peaks in FMR and WIR were higher in wet years than in drought years. Site differences in seasonal patterns were apparently due to geographic differences in rainfall patterns (more summer rain at eastern Mojave sites). In spring 1992, during an El Niño (ENSO) event, the WEI was greater than the maximal value obtainable from consuming succulent vegetation, indicating copious drinking of rainwater at that time. The physiological and behavioral flexibility of desert tortoises, evident in individuals living at all three study sites, appears central to their ability to survive droughts and benefit from periods of resource abundance. The strong effects of the El Niño (ENSO) weather pattern on tortoise physiology, reproduction, and survival elucidated in this and other studies suggest that local manifestations of global climate events could have a long-term influence on the tortoise populations in the Mojave Desert.

California↗

Rivers and streams: Ecosystem dynamics and integrating paradigms

Full understanding of running waters requires an ecosystem perspective, which encompasses the physical and chemical setting in interaction with dependent biological communities. Several conceptual models or paradigms of river and stream ecosystems that capture critical components of lotic ecosystems have been developed, including the ‘river continuum concept’, to describe fluxes of matter and energy within the stream or river channel together with exchanges between the channel and its terrestrial setting. A complete ecosystem perspective includes consideration of hierarchical spatial scales in a temporal context. Flow of energy in lotic ecosystems is driven by two alternative energy sources: sunlight regulating in-stream photosynthesis and plant litter derived from the stream-side riparian corridor or floodplain. Energy transfers within the ecosystem pass through micro- and macroproducers (algae and vascular hydrophytes) and micro- and macroconsumers (microorganisms, invertebrates, and vertebrates). Material fluxes encompass the cycling of key nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, and the transport, storage, and metabolism of dissolved (DOM) and particulate (POM) organic matter (OM). Growth of lotic periphyton (algae and associated microbes, microzoans, and detritus) and coarse (CPOM) and fine (FPOM) particulate organic matter constitute the food resources of nonpredaceous running-water invertebrates (e.g., shredders that consume CPOM and collectors that feed on FPOM and associated microbes of both).

Book chapter↗

Decision analysis to advance environmental sustainability

Decision analysis provides a robust framework for complex decisions related to environmental sustainability and conservation, including for energy and water, fisheries and wildlife management, agriculture, and climate change response. The complexities of these problems stem from their large scope and scale, which leads to multiple decision makers, stakeholders, rightsholders, and other entities with potentially competing objectives. These problems often are time limited (e.g., urgent action is required to prevent species’ extinction), involve management interventions over long time scales and delayed responses to management (deep uncertainty), and are impeded by limited resources (funding, capacity, etc.). In this Special Issue on “Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability,” we present five case studies of applications of decision analysis to complex problems in environmental sustainability and conservation. These case studies incorporate multiple objectives related to ecological and environmental sustainability, economic and social concerns, and logistics of implementation. They showcase a wide range of tools and applications to these problems. We also provide suggestions for new avenues of research and application of decision analysis to problems of environmental sustainability and conservation, including how to incorporate other decision-making tools into decision analysis processes, how to broaden the reach of decision analysis to other sustainability problems, how to incorporate more stakeholders and rightsholders into the decision process, the potential to incorporate new technology into these processes, identifying more creative alternatives, how to secure more funding, ways to move from decision to action, and how to move beyond status quo to make big transitions necessary to achieve sustainability.

Decision Analysis↗

Proceedings of the third USGS modeling conference, June 7-11, 2010, Broomfield, Colorado-Understanding and predicting for a changing world

The Third USGS Modeling Conference was held June 7th-11, 2010, in Broomfield, Colorado. The conference focused on the development and application of analytical and theoretical models and data availability that support managing the Nation's resources and help protect lives and property. Participants at the conference included scientists and managers from Department of the Interior (DOI) Bureaus; national and international Federal, State, and local agencies; academic institutions; and nongovernmental organizations. The conference was organized according to DOI priorities and the strategic directions of the USGS Science Strategy; the following themes were emphasized: (1) Understanding Ecosystems and Restoring America's Treasured Landscapes; (2) Climate Change and Impact; (3) New Energy Frontier and Minerals for America; (4) A National Hazards, Risk, and Resilience Assessment Program; (5) Role of Environment and Wildlife in Human Health; (6) A Water Census of the United States; and (7) New Methods of Investigation and Discovery. The conference theme-"Understanding and Predicting for a Changing World"-focused on the following goals: advance development and application of models; provide tools that address management issues; present state-of-the-art models ranging from individual phenomena to integrated systems; and foster a working community among scientists and managers.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Rules for success in environmental negotiations

Scientists at the Mid-Continent Ecological Science Center of the National Biological Service conducted a series of case studies of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission license consultations. The goal of these studies was to test hypotheses about factors that contribute to success in interagency negotiations. Based on their analysis of six case studies, the researchers constructed a list of ten "rules for success." Examples include: Analyze the incentives of each party to negotiate, paying special attention to parties who gain by not negotiating; Clarify the technical issues so that all agree and they coincide with resource management objectives; and Make sure the final agreement is feasible from both a physical and a policy perspective so that it can actually be implemented. These rules can be used to plan for negotiations and to diagnose ongoing negotiations.

Conference Paper↗

Influence of vertical and lateral heat transfer on permafrost thaw, peatland landscape transition, and groundwater flow

Recent climate change has reduced the spatial extent and thickness of permafrost in many discontinuous permafrost regions. Rapid permafrost thaw is producing distinct landscape changes in the Taiga Plains of the Northwest Territories, Canada. As permafrost bodies underlying forested peat plateaus shrink, the landscape slowly transitions into unforested wetlands. The expansion of wetlands has enhanced the hydrologic connectivity of many watersheds via new surface and near-surface flow paths, and increased streamflow has been observed. Furthermore, the decrease in forested peat plateaus results in a net loss of boreal forest and associated ecosystems. This study investigates fundamental processes that contribute to permafrost thaw by comparing observed and simulated thaw development and landscape transition of a peat plateau-wetland complex in the Northwest Territories, Canada from 1970 to 2012. Measured climate data are first used to drive surface energy balance simulations for the wetland and peat plateau. Near-surface soil temperatures simulated in the surface energy balance model are then applied as the upper boundary condition to a three-dimensional model of subsurface water flow and coupled energy transport with freeze-thaw. Simulation results demonstrate that lateral heat transfer, which is not considered in many permafrost models, can influence permafrost thaw rates. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that landscape evolution arising from permafrost thaw acts as a positive feedback mechanism that increases the energy absorbed at the land surface and produces additional permafrost thaw. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow rates in local groundwater flow systems may be enhanced by the degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.

Northwest Territories↗

Allochthonous marsh subsidies enhances food web productivity in an estuary and its surrounding ecosystem mosaic

Terrestrial organic matter is believed to play an important role in promoting resilient estuarine food webs, but the inherent interconnectivity of estuarine systems often obscures the origins and importance of these terrestrial inputs. To determine the relative contributions of terrestrial (allochthonous) and aquatic (autochthonous) organic matter to the estuarine food web, we analyzed carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur stable isotopes from multiple trophic levels, environmental strata, and habitats throughout the estuarine habitat mosaic. We used a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model (SIMM) to parse out relationships among primary producers, invertebrates, and a pelagic and demersal fish species (juvenile Chinook salmon and sculpin, respectively). The study was carried out in the Nisqually River Delta (NRD), Washington, USA, a recently-restored, macrotidal estuary with a diverse habitat mosaic. Plant groupings of macroalgae, eelgrass, and tidal marsh plants served as the primary base components of the NRD food web. About 90% of demersal sculpin diets were comprised of benthic and pelagic crustaceans that were fed by autochthonous organic matter contributions from aquatic vegetation. Juvenile salmon, on the other hand, derived their energy from a mix of terrestrial, pelagic, and benthic prey, including insects, dipterans, and crustaceans. Consequently, allochthonous terrestrial contributions of organic matter were much greater for salmon, ranging between 26 and 43%. These findings demonstrate how connectivity among estuarine habitat types and environmental strata facilitates organic matter subsidies. This suggests that management actions that improve or restore lateral habitat connectivity as well as terrestrial-aquatic linkages may enhance allochthonous subsidies, promoting increased prey resources and ecosystem benefits in estuaries.

Washington↗

The early bird gets the shrimp: Confronting assumptions of isotopic equilibrium and homogeneity in a wild bird population

1. Because stable isotope distributions in organic material vary systematically across energy gradients that exist in ecosystems, community and population structures, and in individual physiological systems, isotope values in animal tissues have helped address a broad range of questions in animal ecology. It follows that every tissue sample provides an isotopic profile that can be used to study dietary or movement histories of individual animals. Interpretations of these profiles depend on the assumption that metabolic pools are isotopically well mixed and in equilibrium with dietary resources prior to tissue synthesis, and they extend to the population level by assuming isotope profiles are identically distributed for animals using the same proximal dietary resource. As these assumptions are never fully met, studying structure in the variance of tissue isotope values from wild populations is informative. 2. We studied variation in δ 13 C, δ 15 N, δ 2 H and δ 18 O data for feathers from a population of eared grebes (Podiceps nigricollis) that migrate to Great Salt Lake each fall to moult feathers. During this time, they cannot fly and feed almost exclusively on superabundant brine shrimp (Artemia franciscana). The ecological simplicity of this situation minimized the usual spatial and trophic complexities often present in natural studies of feather isotope values. 3. Ranges and variances of isotope values for the feathers were larger than those from previously published studies that report feather isotopic variance, but they were bimodally distributed in all isotope dimensions. Isotope values for proximal dietary resources and local surface water show that some of the feathers we assumed to have been grown locally must have been grown before birds reached isotopic equilibrium with local diet or immediately prior to arrival at Great Salt Lake. 4. Our study provides novel insights about resource use strategies in eared grebes during migration. More generally, it demonstrates the utility of studying variance structures and questioning assumptions implicit in the interpretation of stable isotope data from wild animals.

Utah↗

The macroecology of sustainability

The discipline of sustainability science has emerged in response to concerns of natural and social scientists, policymakers, and lay people about whether the Earth can continue to support human population growth and economic prosperity. Yet, sustainability science has developed largely independently from and with little reference to key ecological principles that govern life on Earth. A macroecological perspective highlights three principles that should be integral to sustainability science: 1) physical conservation laws govern the flows of energy and materials between human systems and the environment, 2) smaller systems are connected by these flows to larger systems in which they are embedded, and 3) global constraints ultimately limit flows at smaller scales. Over the past few decades, decreasing per capita rates of consumption of petroleum, phosphate, agricultural land, fresh water, fish, and wood indicate that the growing human population has surpassed the capacity of the Earth to supply enough of these essential resources to sustain even the current population and level of socioeconomic development.

PLoS Biology↗

Sage-grouse habitat selection during winter in Alberta

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are dependent on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) for food and shelter during winter, yet few studies have assessed winter habitat selection, particularly at scales applicable to conservation planning. Small changes to availability of winter habitats have caused drastic reductions in some sage-grouse populations. We modeled winter habitat selection by sage-grouse in Alberta, Canada, by using a resource selection function. Our purpose was to 1) generate a robust winter habitat-selection model for Alberta sage-grouse; 2) spatially depict habitat suitability in a Geographic Information System to identify areas with a high probability of selection and thus, conservation importance; and 3) assess the relative influence of human development, including oil and gas wells, in landscape models of winter habitat selection. Terrain and vegetation characteristics, sagebrush cover, anthropogenic landscape features, and energy development were important in top Akaike's Information Criterionselected models. During winter, sage-grouse selected dense sagebrush cover and homogenous less rugged areas, and avoided energy development and 2-track truck trails. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development highlights the need for comprehensive management strategies that maintain suitable habitats across all seasons. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Computation of backwater and discharge at width constrictions of heavily vegetated flood plains

The U.S. Geological Survey, cooperated with the Federal Highway Administration and the State Highway Departments of Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana, to develop a proposed method for computing backwater and discharge at width constrictions of heavily vegetated flood plains. Data were collected at 20 single opening sites for 31 floods. Flood-plain width varied from 4 to 14 times the bridge opening width. The recurrence intervals of peak discharge ranged from a 2-year flood to greater than a 100-year flood, with a median interval of 6 years. Measured backwater ranged from 0.39 to 3.16 feet. Backwater computed by the present standard Geological Survey method averaged 29 percent less than the measured, and that computed by the currently used Federal Highway Administration method averaged 47 percent less than the measured. Discharge computed by the Survey method averaged 21 percent more then the measured. Analysis of data showed that the flood-plain widths and the Manning 's roughness coefficient are larger than those used to develop the standard methods. A method to more accurately compute backwater and discharge was developed. The difference between the contracted and natural water-surface profiles computed using standard step-backwater procedures is defined as backwater. The energy loss terms in the step-backwater procedure are computed as the product of the geometric mean of the energy slopes and the flow distance in the reach was derived from potential flow theory. The mean error was 1 percent when using the proposed method for computing backwater and 3 percent for computing discharge. (Woodard-USGS)

Mississippi↗

Mappable criteria for Li-mineralized pegmatites in the Appalachian orogen (utilizing the mineral systems approach)

Li-mineralized pegmatites are found throughout the Appalachian orogenic belt. Available evidence layers (e.g. tectonic setting, structures, geochemistry, geochronology) are used to develop mappable criteria for mineral resource assessments of Li-mineralized pegmatites in the northern and southern U.S. Appalachians. These evidence layers are placed into a mineral systems anatomy and classification of tectonic settings approach. We find that triggers of Li-mineralized pegmatite petrogenesis are closely associated with terrane accretion, continental collision, and orogenic collapse, spanning the Acadian to Alleghanian orogenies. These include overthickened crust in the northern Appalachians (Acadian altiplano) and terrane accretion in the southern Appalachians. The energy drivers of the system are anatexis broadly plutonism and/or deformation-related melting processes. Metal sources are associated with magmatic fluids of highly differentiated granitoids (e.g. peraluminous, S-type) and Silurian- Devonian sedimentary rocks. In many instances permeability and pathways of these systems are structurally controlled along major fault systems and within highly deformed metasedimentary rocks in the north. Notably, there are Li-mineralized pegmatite gaps along the Appalachian orogen that include: 1) regions of exposure of unfavorable metamorphic grade rocks, 2) favorable areas deeply buried by sedimentary rocks, and 3) gaps of unknown causes. Exhumation and preservation of midcrustal rocks are favourable as hosts to lithiummineralized pegmatites.

southern Appalachian mineral resourse assessment a↗

Review of past gas Production attempts from subsurface gas hydrate deposits and necessity of long-term production testing

This paper summarizes the conditions, applied techniques, results, and lessons of major field gas production attempts from gas hydrates in the past and the necessity of longer term production testing with the scale of years to fulfill the gap between the currently available information and the knowledge required for commercial development. The temporal and spatial scales of field production test projects employing depressurization have expanded since 2002. The results from the projects have proved the applicability of these techniques in both onshore and offshore conditions. However, many technical and reservoir condition-related issues have emerged in gas production, and the gap between current status and industrial requirements is still large. Sand control, artificial lift, and related flow assurance issues are common technical issues that impact onshore and offshore production testing operations. Different reservoir responses were observed well by well, and discrepancy between model predictions and actual field measurements were seen, although reasonable matches were made for short-term behaviors. Those observations suggest that temporal change of the wellbore and near-wellbore conditions and reservoir heterogeneity that cannot be fully modeled have caused complex short-term responses to the depressurization operations. To ensure the long-term operational stability and reliability of the prediction technologies for production behaviors that are essential for commercialization of gas hydrate resources, gas hydrate production testing with comparable duration with commercial operations are necessary. Due to the locality of geological conditions in gas hydrate reservoirs, numerous gas production tests will be required to understand the factors controlling gas production.

Journal of Energy and Fuels↗