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A framework for estimating economic impacts of ecological restoration

Ecological restoration projects are designed to improve natural and cultural resources. Spending on restoration also stimulates economic impacts to the restoration economy through the creation or support of jobs and business activity. This paper presents accessible methods for quantifying the economic impacts supported by restoration spending and is written to be a guide and toolbox for an interdisciplinary audience of restoration practitioners and economists. Measuring the economic impacts of restoration can be challenging due to lacking or limited data. The complex, collaborative, and heterogeneous nature of restoration projects can make it difficult to clearly track costs, contributing to limited availability and inconsistency in restoration cost data. And business classification systems, such as the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), do not include restoration-sectors that consistently describe the patterns of restoration spending. The aims of this paper are to (1) provide restoration practitioners and program managers with a clear understanding of the application of economic impact analyses to restoration, (2) provide a framework for collecting project cost data for economic impact analyses, and (3) provide modeling best practices and an example application of the framework.

Environmental Management↗

Implementation of a framework for multi-species, multi-objective adaptive management in Delaware Bay

Decision analytic approaches have been widely recommended as well suited to solving disputed and ecologically complex natural resource management problems with multiple objectives and high uncertainty. However, the difference between theory and practice is substantial, as there are very few actual resource management programs that represent formal applications of decision analysis. We applied the process of structured decision making to Atlantic horseshoe crab harvest decisions in the Delaware Bay region to develop a multispecies adaptive management (AM) plan, which is currently being implemented. Horseshoe crab harvest has been a controversial management issue since the late 1990s. A largely unregulated horseshoe crab harvest caused a decline in crab spawning abundance. That decline coincided with a major decline in migratory shorebird populations that consume horseshoe crab eggs on the sandy beaches of Delaware Bay during spring migration. Our approach incorporated multiple stakeholders, including fishery and shorebird conservation advocates, to account for diverse management objectives and varied opinions on ecosystem function. Through consensus building, we devised an objective statement and quantitative objective function to evaluate alternative crab harvest policies. We developed a set of competing ecological models accounting for the leading hypotheses on the interaction between shorebirds and horseshoe crabs. The models were initially weighted based on stakeholder confidence in these hypotheses, but weights will be adjusted based on monitoring and Bayesian model weight updating. These models were used together to predict the effects of management actions on the crab and shorebird populations. Finally, we used a dynamic optimization routine to identify the state dependent optimal harvest policy for horseshoe crabs, given the possible actions, the stated objectives and our competing hypotheses about system function. The AM plan was reviewed, accepted and implemented by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission in 2012 and 2013. While disagreements among stakeholders persist, structured decision making enabled unprecedented progress towards a transparent and consensus driven management plan for crabs and shorebirds in Delaware Bay.

Biological Conservation↗

Proactive aquatic ecotoxicological assessment of room-temperature ionic liquids

Aquatic environments are being contaminated with a myriad of anthropogenic chemicals, a problem likely to continue due to both unintentional and intentional releases. To protect valuable natural resources, novel chemicals should be shown to be environmentally safe prior to use and potential release into the environment. Such proactive assessment is currently being applied to room-temperature ionic liquids (ILs). Because most ILs are water-soluble, their effects are likely to manifest in aquatic ecosystems. Information on the impacts of ILs on numerous aquatic organisms, focused primarily on acute LC50 and EC50 endpoints, is now available, and trends in toxicity are emerging. Cation structure tends to influence IL toxicity more so than anion structure, and within a cation class, the length of alkyl chain substituents is positively correlated with toxicity. While the effects of ILs on several aquatic organisms have been studied, the challenge for aquatic toxicology is now to predict the effects of ILs in complex natural environments that often include diverse mixtures of organisms, abiotic conditions, and additional stressors. To make robust predictions about ILs will require coupling of ecologically realistic laboratory and field experiments with standard toxicity bioassays and models. Such assessments would likely discourage the development of especially toxic ILs while shifting focus to those that are more environmentally benign. Understanding the broader ecological effects of emerging chemicals, incorporating that information into predictive models, and conveying the conclusions to those who develop, regulate, and use those chemicals, should help avoid future environmental degradation.

Current Organic Chemistry↗

Regional Fluid Flow and Basin Modeling in Northern Alaska

The foothills of the Brooks Range contain an enormous accumulation of zinc (Zn) in the form of zinc sulfide and barium (Ba) in the form of barite in Carboniferous shale, chert, and mudstone. Most of the resources and reserves of Zn occur in the Red Dog deposit and others in the Red Dog district; these resources and reserves surpass those of most deposits worldwide in terms of size and grade. In addition to zinc and lead sulfides (which contain silver, Ag) and barite, correlative strata host phosphate deposits. Furthermore, prolific hydrocarbon source rocks of Carboniferous and Triassic to Early Jurassic age generated considerable amounts of petroleum that may have contributed to the world-class petroleum resources of the North Slope. Deposits of Zn-Pb-Ag or barite as large as those in the Brooks Range are very rare on a global basis and, accordingly, multiple coincident favorable factors must be invoked to explain their origins. To improve our understanding of these factors and to contribute to more effective assessments of resources in sedimentary basins of northern Alaska and throughout the world, the Mineral Resources Program and the Energy Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a project that was aimed at understanding the petroleum maturation and mineralization history of parts of the Brooks Range that were previously poorly characterized. The project, titled “Regional Fluid Flow and Basin Modeling in Northern Alaska,” was undertaken in collaboration with industry, academia, and other government agencies. This Circular contains papers that describe the results of the recently completed project. The studies that are highlighted in these papers have led to a better understanding of the following: The complex sedimentary facies relationships and depositional settings and the geochemistry of the sedimentary rocks that host the deposits (sections 2 and 3). The factors responsible for formation of the barite and zinc deposits (sections 4 and 5). The geochemical indicators or exploration tools that might be used to locate other large deposits of similar character in the Red Dog district and elsewhere (section 6). The isotopic compositions of barite and sulfide deposits (sections 7 and 8) The distribution and nature of phosphate and metalliferous oil shale localities (sections 9 and 10). The architecture, kinematics, and timing of the complex thrust systems that disrupted and redistributed the Carboniferous and younger rocks; these studies are necessary in order to make a realistic palinspastic reconstruction of the basin (sections 11 and 12). The nature and extent of the petroleum system sourced from Mississippian rocks (section 13).

Circular↗

Conceptual ecological models to support detection of ecological change on Alaska National Wildlife Refuges

More than 31 million hectares of land are protected and managed in 16 refuges by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) in Alaska. The vastness and isolation of Alaskan refuges give rise to relatively intact and complete ecosystems. The potential for these lands to provide habitat for trust species is likely to be altered, however, due to global climate change, which is having dramatic effects at high latitudes. The ability of USFWS to effectively manage these lands in the future will be enhanced by a regional inventory and monitoring program that integrates and supplements monitoring currently being implemented by individual refuges. Conceptual models inform monitoring programs in a number of ways, including summarizing important ecosystem components and processes as well as facilitating communication, discussion and debate about the nature of the system and important management issues. This process can lead to hypotheses regarding future changes, likely results of alternative management actions, identification of monitoring indicators, and ultimately, interpretation of monitoring results. As a first step towards developing a monitoring program, the 16 refuges in Alaska each created a conceptual model of their refuge and the landscape context. Models include prominent ecosystem components, drivers, and processes by which components are linked or altered. The Alaska refuge system also recognizes that designing and implementing monitoring at regional and ecoregional extents has numerous scientific, fiscal, logistical, and political advantages over monitoring conducted exclusively at refuge-specific scales. Broad-scale monitoring is particularly advantageous for examining phenomena such as climate change because effects are best interpreted at broader spatial extents. To enable an ecoregional perspective, a rationale was developed for deriving ecoregional boundaries for four ecoregions (Polar, Interior Alaska, Bering Coast, and North Pacific Coast) from the Unified Ecoregions of Alaska. Ecoregional models were then developed to illustrate resources and processes that operate at spatial scales larger than individual refuges within each ecoregion. Conceptual models also were developed for adjacent marine areas, designated as the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Beaufort-Chukchi Sea Marine Ecoregions. Although many more conceptual models will be required to support development of a regional monitoring program, these definitions of ecoregions and associated conceptual models are an important foundation.

Alaska↗

Documentation of a digital spatial data base for hydrologic investigations, Broward County, Florida

Geographic information systems have become an important tool in planning for the protection and development of natural resources, including ground water and surface water. A digital spatial data base consisting of 18 data layers that can be accessed by a geographic information system was developed for Broward County, Florida. Five computer programs, including one that can be used to create documentation files for each data layer and four that can be used to create data layers from data files not already in geographic information system format, were also developed. Four types of data layers have been developed. Data layers for manmade features include major roads, municipal boundaries, the public land-survey section grid, land use, and underground storage tank facilities. The data layer for topographic features consists of surveyed point land-surface elevations. Data layers for hydrologic features include surface-water and rainfall data-collection stations, surface-water bodies, water-control district boundaries, and water-management basins. Data layers for hydrogeologic features include soil associations, transmissivity polygons, hydrogeologic unit depths, and a finite-difference model grid for south-central Broward County. Each data layer is documented as to the extent of the features, number of features, scale, data sources, and a description of the attribute tables where applicable.

Florida↗

Bayesian nitrate source apportionment to individual groundwater wells in the Central Valley by use of elemental and isotopic tracers

Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less than 150 m deep) in agricultural areas are often contaminated by nitrate. Agricultural and rural nitrate sources include dairy manure, synthetic fertilizers, and septic waste. Knowledge of the relative proportion that each of these sources contributes to nitrate concentration in individual wells can aid future regulatory and land management decisions. We show that nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate, boron isotopes, and iodine concentrations are a useful, novel combination of groundwater tracers to differentiate between manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources of nitrate. Furthermore, in this work, we develop a new Bayesian mixing model in which these isotopic and elemental tracers were used to estimate the probability distribution of the fractional contributions of manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources to the nitrate concentration found in an individual well. The approach was applied to 56 nitrate-impacted private domestic wells located in the San Joaquin Valley. Model analysis found that some domestic wells were clearly dominated by the manure source and suggests evidence for majority contributions from either the septic or fertilizer source for other wells. But, predictions of fractional contributions for septic and fertilizer sources were often of similar magnitude, perhaps because modeled uncertainty about the fraction of each was large. For validation of the Bayesian model, fractional estimates were compared to surrounding land use and estimated source contributions were broadly consistent with nearby land use types.

California↗

The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition—Working collaboratively to understand the geology of the Great Lakes Region

Introduction The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition (GLGMC), commonly referred to as the “Coalition,” is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the Canadian province of Ontario. The member States receive funding for geologic mapping work from the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP), whereas Ontario participates as a nonfunded partner. The mission of the GLGMC is to produce three-dimensional (3D) geologic maps that depict unconsolidated sediments and near-surface bedrock in the Great Lakes region of North America. Geologic maps are the basis of most earth science investigations and help support resource exploration (energy, minerals, groundwater), natural hazard mitigation, infrastructure development, and land-use planning, all of which can be used to advance economic development and strengthen national security in the Great Lakes region. During the last few million years, the Great Lakes region has experienced repeated glacial advances and retreats, leaving behind extensive sediments, abundant natural resources, and widespread effects on the underlying bedrock geology (Swezey and others, 2022). Linked by shared histories of past glaciations, industrial agriculture, and legacy automotive, coal, steel, and manufacturing industries, the GLGMC member States collaborate to improve the understanding of the 3D distribution of the sediments overlying the region’s bedrock (fig. 1). Developing a comprehensive subsurface 3D framework of this glaciated terrain can provide earth science data to policymakers at all levels. These insights facilitate informed decisions on the exploration, use, and protection of vital resources, such as critical minerals, industrial materials, and aquifers, thereby supporting economic prosperity and the well-being of the citizens of this region. Since its inception in 1998, the Coalition has completed more than 100 geologic mapping projects across the Great Lakes region. Each project aims to deliver geologic maps, 3D datasets, and other information that improves understanding of the geology of the Great Lakes region, with an emphasis on economic and water resources. Key deliverables include 3D geologic maps and models typically portraying sediment thickness, often derived from top-of-bedrock and borehole data. These products are developed through a combination of fieldwork, subsurface modeling, and the collection and analysis of rock and sediment cores. To support Coalition goals, member States collaborate with scientists working on related STATEMAP, EDMAP, and FEDMAP projects. Coalition scientists also engage with Tribal Nations in the Great Lakes region to ensure that Tribal interests pertaining to Coalition work are addressed. Through this collaboration, the Coalition unites the efforts of State, Federal, and Tribal Nation stakeholders to advance geologic data production and enhance understanding of the geologic resources of the Great Lakes region.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Florida↗

Restructuring and serving web-accessible streamflow data from the NOAA National Water Model historic simulations

In 2016, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration deployed the first iteration of an operational National Water Model (NWM) to forecast the water cycle in the continental United States. With many versions, an hourly, multi-decadal historic simulation is made available to the public. In all released to date, the files containing simulated streamflow contain a snapshot of model conditions across the entire domain for a single timestep which makes accessing time series a technical and resource-intensive challenge. In the most recent release, extracting a complete streamflow time series for a single location requires managing 367,920 files (~16.2 TB). In this work we describe a reproducible process for restructuring a sequential set of NWM steamflow files for efficient time series access and provide restructured datasets for versions 1.2 (1993–2018), 2.0 (1993–2020), and 2.1 (1979–2022). These datasets have been made accessible via an OPeNDAP enabled THREDDS data server for public use and a brief analysis highlights the latest version of the model should not be assumed best for all locations. Lastly we describe an R package that expedites data retrieval with examples for multiple use-cases.

Nature, Scientific Data↗

Comparison of groundwater flow in Southern California coastal aquifers

Development of the coastal aquifer systems of Southern California has resulted in overdraft, changes in streamflow, seawater intrusion, land subsidence, increased vertical flow between aquifers, and a redirection of regional flow toward pumping centers. These water-management challenges can be more effectively addressed by incorporating new understanding of the geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical setting of these aquifers. Groundwater and surface-water flow are controlled, in part, by the geologic setting. The physiographic province and related tectonic fabric control the relation between the direction of geomorphic features and the flow of water. Geologic structures such as faults and folding also control the direction of flow and connectivity of groundwater flow. The layering of sediments and their structural association can also influence pathways of groundwater flow and seawater intrusion. Submarine canyons control the shortest potential flow paths that can result in seawater intrusion. The location and extent of offshore outcrops can also affect the flow of groundwater and the potential for seawater intrusion and land subsidence in coastal aquifer systems. As coastal aquifer systems are developed, the source and movement of ground-water and surface-water resources change. In particular, groundwater flow is affected by the relative contributions of different types of inflows and outflows, such as pump-age from multi-aquifer wells within basal or upper coarse-grained units, streamflow infiltration, and artificial recharge. These natural and anthropogenic inflows and outflows represent the supply and demand components of the water budgets of ground-water within coastal watersheds. They are all significantly controlled by climate variability related to major climate cycles, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The combination of natural forcings and anthropogenic stresses redirects the flow of groundwater and either mitigates or exacerbates the potential adverse effects of resource development, such as declining water levels, sea-water intrusion, land subsidence, and mixing of different waters. Streamflow also has been affected by development of coastal aquifer systems and related conjunctive use. Saline water is the largest water-quality problem in Southern California coastal aquifer systems. Seawater intrusion is a significant source of saline water, but saline water is also known to come from other sources and processes. Seawater intrusion is typically restricted to the coarse-grained units at the base of fining-upward sequences of terrestrial deposits, and at the top of coarsening upward sequences of marine deposits. This results in layered and narrow intrusion fronts. Maintaining the sustainability of Southern California coastal aquifers requires joint management of surface water and groundwater (conjunctive use). This requires new data collection and analyses (including research drilling, modern geohydrologic investigations, and development of detailed computer groundwater models that simulate the supply and demand components separately), implementation of new facilities (including spreading and injection facilities for artificial recharge), and establishment of new institutions and policies that help to sustain the water resources and better manage regional development.

California↗

Combined multibeam and bathymetry data from Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound: a regional perspective

Detailed bathymetric maps of the sea floor in Rhode Island and Block Island Sounds are of great interest to the New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts research and management communities because of this area's ecological, recreational, and commercial importance. Geologically interpreted digital terrain models from individual surveys provide important benthic environmental information, yet many applications of this information require a geographically broader perspective. For example, individual surveys are of limited use for the planning and construction of cross-sound infrastructure, such as cables and pipelines, or for the testing of regional circulation models. To address this need, we integrated 14 contiguous multibeam bathymetric datasets that were produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during charting operations into one digital terrain model that covers much of Block Island Sound and extends eastward across Rhode Island Sound. The new dataset, which covers over 1244 square kilometers, is adjusted to mean lower low water, gridded to 4-meter resolution, and provided in Universal Transverse Mercator Zone 19, North American Datum of 1983 and geographic World Geodetic Survey of 1984 projections. This resolution is adequate for sea-floor feature and process interpretation but is small enough to be queried and manipulated with standard Geographic Information System programs and to allow for future growth. Natural features visible in the data include boulder lag deposits of winnowed Pleistocene strata, sand-wave fields, and scour depressions that reflect the strength of oscillating tidal currents and scour by storm-induced waves. Bedform asymmetry allows interpretations of net sediment transport. Anthropogenic features visible in the data include shipwrecks and dredged channels. Together the merged data reveal a larger, more continuous perspective of bathymetric topography than previously available, providing a fundamental framework for research and resource management activities offshore of Rhode Island.

Rhode Island↗

Toxicity of potassium chloride to veliger and byssal stage dreissenid mussels related to water quality

Natural resource managers are seeking appropriate chemical eradication and control protocols for infestations of zebra mussels, Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas, 1769), and quagga mussels. D. rostiformis bugensis (Andrusov, 1897) that have limited effect on non-target species. Applications of low concentrations of potassium salt (as potash) have shown promise for use where the infestation and treatment can be contained or isolated. To further our understanding of such applications and obtain data that could support a pesticide registration, we conducted studies of the acute and chronic toxicity of potassium chloride to dreissenid mussels in four different water sources from infested and non-infested locations (ground water from northern Idaho, surface water from the Snake River, Idaho, USA, surface water from Lake Ontario, Ontario, Canada, and surface water from the Colorado River, Arizona, USA). We found short term exposure of veligers (< 24 h) to concentrations of 960 mg/L KCl produced rapid mortality in water from three locations, but veligers tested in Colorado River water were resistant. We used probit models to compare the mortality responses, predicted median lethal times and 95% confidence intervals. In separate experiments, we explored the sensitivity of byssal stage mussels in chronic exposures (>29 d) at concentrations of 100 and 200 mg/L KCl. Rapid mortality occurred within 10 d of exposure to concentrations of 200 mg/L KCl, regardless of water source. Kaplan-Meier estimates of mean survival of byssal mussels in 100 mg/L KCl prepared in surface water from Idaho and Lake Ontario were 4.9 or 6.9 d, respectively; however, mean survival of mussels tested in the Colorado River water was > 23 d. The sodium content of the Colorado River water was nearly three times that measured in waters from the other locations, and we hypothesized sodium concentrations may affect mussel survival. To test our hypothesis, we supplemented Snake River and Lake Ontario water with NaCl to equivalent conductivity as the Colorado River, and found mussel survival increased to levels observed in tests of veliger and byssal mussels in Colorado River water. We recommend KCl disinfection and eradication protocols must be developed to carefully consider the water quality characteristics of treatment locations.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi , which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which maximizes the use of available resources. Increased implementation of approaches that consider detection error promote ecological advancements and conservation and management decisions that are better informed.

Oklahoma↗

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow at the Gettysburg Elevator Plant Superfund Site, Adams County, Pennsylvania

Ground water in Triassic-age sedimentary fractured-rock aquifers in the area of Gettysburg, Pa., is used as drinking water and for industrial and commercial supply. In 1983, ground water at the Gettysburg Elevator Plant was found by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources to be contaminated with trichloroethene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and other synthetic organic compounds. As part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, 1980 process, a Remedial Investigation was completed in July 1991, a method of site remediation was issued in the Record of Decision dated June 1992, and a Final Design Report was completed in May 1997. In cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the hydrogeologic assessment of the site remediation, the U.S. Geological Survey began a study in 1997 to determine the effects of the onsite and offsite extraction wells on ground-water flow and contaminant migration from the Gettysburg Elevator Plant. This determination is based on hydrologic and geophysical data collected from 1991 to 1998 and on results of numerical model simulations of the local ground-water flow-system. The Gettysburg Elevator Site is underlain by red, green, gray, and black shales of the Heidlersburg Member of the Gettysburg Formation. Correlation of natural-gamma logs indicates the sedimentary rock strike about N. 23 degrees E. and dip about 23 degrees NW. Depth to bedrock onsite commonly is about 6 feet but offsite may be as deep as 40 feet. The ground-water system consists of two zones?a thin, shallow zone composed of soil, clay, and highly weathered bedrock and a thicker, nonweathered or fractured bedrock zone. The shallow zone overlies the bedrock zone and truncates the dipping beds parallel to land surface. Diabase dikes are barriers to ground-water flow in the bedrock zone. The ground-water system is generally confined or semi-confined, even at shallow depths. Depth to water can range from flowing at land surface to more than 71 feet below land surface. Potentiometric maps based on measured water levels at the Gettysburg Elevator Plant indicate ground water flows from west to east, towards Rock Creek. Multiple-well aquifer tests indicate the system is heterogeneous and flow is primarily in dipping beds that contain discrete secondary openings separated by less permeable beds. Water levels in wells open to the pumped bed, as projected along the dipping stratigraphy, are drawn down more than water levels in wells not open to the pumped bed. Ground-water flow was simulated for steady-state conditions prior to pumping and long-term average pumping conditions. The three-dimensional numerical flow model (MODFLOW) was calibrated by use of a parameter estimation program (MODFLOWP). Steady-state conditions were assumed for the calibration period of 1996. An effective areal recharge rate of 7 inches was used in model calibration. The calibrated flow model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the current onsite and offsite extraction well system. The simulation results generally indicate that the extraction system effectively captures much of the ground-water recharge at the Gettysburg Elevator Plant and, hence, contaminated ground-water migrating from the site. Some of the extraction wells pump at low rates and have very small contributing areas. Results indicate some areal recharge onsite will move to offsite extraction wells.

Pennsylvania↗

Assessment, water-quality trends, and options for remediation of acidic drainage from abandoned coal mines near Huntsville, Missouri, 2003-2004

Water from abandoned underground coal mines acidifies receiving streams in the Sugar Creek Basin and Mitchell Mine Basin near Huntsville, Missouri. A 4.35-kilometer (2.7-mile) reach of Sugar Creek has been classified as impaired based on Missouri's Water Quality Standards because of small pH values [< (less than) 6.5]. Samples collected from Sugar Creek from July 2003 to June 2004 did not have pH values outside of the specified range of 6.5 to 9.0. However, large concentrations of iron [416 to 2,320 mg/L (milligrams per liter)], manganese (8.36 to 33.5 mg/L), aluminum (0.870 to 428 mg/L), and sulfate (2,990 to 13,700 mg/L) in acidic mine drainage (AMD) from two mine springs as well as small and diffuse seeps were observed to have an effect on water quality in Sugar Creek. Metal and sulfate loads increased and pH decreased immediately downstream from Sugar Creek's confluence with the Calfee Slope and Huntsville Gob drainages that discharge AMD into Sugar Creek. Similar effects were observed in the Mitchell Mine drainage that receives AMD from a large mine spring. Comparisons of water-quality samples from this study and two previous studies by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1987-1988 and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources in 2000-2002 indicate that AMD generation in the Sugar Creek Basin and Mitchell Mine Basin is declining, but the data are insufficient to quantify any trends or time frame. AMD samples from the largest mine spring in the Calfee Slope subbasin indicated a modest but significant increase in median pH from 4.8 to 5.2 using the Wilcoxan rank-sum test (p <0.05) and a decrease in median specific conductance from 5,000 to 3,540 ?S/cm (microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius) during a 17-year period. AMD samples from the largest mine spring in the Mitchell Mine Basin indicated an increase in median pH values from 5.6 to 6.0 and a decrease in median specific conductance from 3,050 to 2,450 ?S/cm during the same period. Remediation of AMD at or near the sites of the three largest mine springs is geochemically feasible based on alkalinity addition rates and increased pH determined by cubitainer experiments and geochemical mixing experiments using the computer model PHREEQCI. Alkalinity values for seven cubitainer experiments conducted to simulate anoxic treatment options exceeded the targeted value for alkalinity [90 mg/L as calcium carbonate (CaCO3)] specified in Missouri's Total Maximum Daily Load program by 18 percent or more, but maximum pH values were between 6.2 and 6.3, which is less than the targeted pH value of 6.5. Treatment of AMD by mixing with stream water or sewage effluent can further increase pH as indicated by geochemical modeling, but will not totally achieve water-quality goals because of limited discharges. A combination of treatments including settling ponds, oxic or anoxic limestone drains, and possibly successive alkalinity producing systems to remediate AMD will likely be required in the Sugar Creek Basin and Mitchell Mine Basin to consistently meet Missouri's Water Quality Standards.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrologic budget of the Harney Basin groundwater system, southeastern Oregon

Groundwater-level declines and limited quantitative knowledge of the groundwater-flow system in the Harney Basin prompted a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oregon Water Resources Department to evaluate the groundwater-flow system and budget. This report provides a hydrologic budget of the Harney Basin groundwater system that includes separate groundwater budgets for upland and lowland areas to avoid double counting water that recharges in the uplands, discharges to streams and springs in the uplands, flows downstream to the lowlands, and recharges the lowland groundwater system. Lowlands generally represent the conterminous valleys within the center of the basin, including floodplains of the major streams and uplands represent all other areas in the basin. The upland groundwater budget is minimally affected by groundwater development and generally represents the budget of the natural system. In upland areas during 1982–2016, mean-annual recharge totaled 288,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) and mean-annual discharge totaled 239,000 acre-ft, resulting in a net recharge of 49,000 acre-ft. Upland groundwater recharge occurs as infiltration of precipitation and snowmelt and was estimated using the USGS Soil-Water-Balance model calibrated to estimates of runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), base flow, and snow-water equivalent. Groundwater discharge to streams is the predominant discharge mechanism in upland areas and was estimated as 225,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) during 1982–2016 using hydrograph separation and summer low-flow estimates in streamgaged watersheds and a linear relation between estimated streamflow and base flow in ungaged watersheds. The remaining upland discharge occurs through springs (14,000 acre-ft/yr) that either emerge downgradient of locations where groundwater discharge to streams was estimated or are routed to irrigated areas. Spring discharge was estimated as a compilation of current and historical measurements. The net upland recharge, which is 17 percent of total upland recharge, ultimately recharges lowland areas as groundwater flow from uplands to lowlands. The lowland groundwater budget for the Harney Basin represents a combination of natural conditions and human activity as more than 99 percent of groundwater development has occurred either inside or within 2 miles of the lowland boundary. In lowland areas during 1982–2016, mean annual groundwater recharge totaled 173,000 acre-ft and groundwater discharge totaled 283,000 acre-ft, indicating discharge exceeded recharge by more than 60 percent. Excluding groundwater pumping, the lowland groundwater budget is more in balance with a mean annual recharge of 165,000 acre-ft and a mean annual discharge of 131,000 acre-ft during 1982–2016. The 23-percent difference between non-pumping recharge and discharge mostly represents the cumulative uncertainty in the estimates of the various groundwater budget components but also likely includes a small reduction in natural groundwater discharge captured by pumping. Lowland groundwater is predominantly recharged by infiltration of surface water (116,000 acre-ft/yr) through streams, floodwater, and irrigation, with a lesser amount as groundwater inflow from uplands and minimal recharge beneath Malheur and Harney Lakes. Recharge from streams and floodwater (natural and irrigation) was estimated using a balance of measured and estimated surface-water inflow to and outflow from lowland areas including streamflow, springflow, and ET where a portion of surface-water inflow to lowland areas is comprised of upland discharge to streams and springs. Groundwater ET (119,000 acre-ft/yr) is the predominant natural discharge mechanism in lowland areas and was estimated as the mean from two remote-sensing based approaches incorporating groundwater ET measurements from other similar basins and 23 years (1987–2015) of Landsat imagery. Discharge of lowland groundwater into Malheur and Harney Lakes is about 700 acre-ft/yr and is represented in groundwater ET estimates. The remaining natural groundwater discharge from lowland areas issues from Sodhouse Spring (8,900 acre-ft/yr) and as groundwater flow to the Malheur River Basin through Virginia Valley (3,100 acre-ft/yr). The relatively large amount of groundwater discharged to springs in Warm Springs Valley (25,000 acre-ft/yr) is accounted for in groundwater ET estimates. Natural groundwater discharge in lowland areas of the Harney Basin has remained relatively constant during the last 80 years based on comparisons with estimates north of Malheur Lake and west of Harney Lake published in the 1930s. Annual net amount of groundwater pumped (pumpage) from the Harney Basin during 2017–18 averaged 144,000 acre-ft. The net value is the difference between pumpage (about 152,000 acre-ft/yr) and reinfiltration of groundwater pumped for irrigation and non-irrigation purposes (about 8,000 acre-ft/yr). Net pumpage was estimated in concurrent studies that compiled groundwater-use data and coupled reported groundwater pumpage data from wells with remote-sensing-based ET estimates from groundwater-irrigated fields. Total pumpage for irrigation has increased from about 54,000 acre-ft/yr during 1991–92 to 145,000 acre-ft/yr during 2017–18. Presently, pumpage is greatest in the lowland region north of Malheur Lake (81,000 acre-ft/yr), with lesser amounts to the north and northwest of Harney Lake (41,000 acre-ft/yr) and to the south and east of Malheur Lake (22,000 acre-ft/yr). During this study, mean annual lowland groundwater discharge (including pumpage) exceeded mean annual recharge, indicating that the lowland hydrologic budget is out of balance. Net groundwater pumpage during 2017–18 is similar to groundwater discharge from all other sources in the lowlands and is four times the imbalance between non-pumping lowland recharge and discharge (34,000 acre-ft/yr). Declining groundwater levels at depth across many parts of the Harney Basin lowlands indicate that pumpage is depleting aquifer storage and is likely capturing a small amount of natural groundwater discharge to springs and ET in some lowland areas. If pumping continues, aquifer storage depletion will continue until the capture rate of natural discharge to springs and ET is equal to the pumping rate. If groundwater development occurs in upland areas and reduces either the streamflow or groundwater inflow to lowland areas, the deficit in the lowland water budget will increase.

Oregon↗

USGS Tampa Bay Pilot Study

Many of the nation's estuaries have been environmentally stressed since the turn of the 20th century and will continue to be impacted in the future. Tampa Bay, one the Gulf of Mexico's largest estuaries, exemplifies the threats that our estuaries face (EPA Report 2001, Tampa Bay Estuary Program-Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (TBEP-CCMP)). More than 2 million people live in the Tampa Bay watershed, and the population constitutes to grow. Demand for freshwater resources, conversion of undeveloped areas to resident and industrial uses, increases in storm-water runoff, and increased air pollution from urban and industrial sources are some of the known human activities that impact Tampa Bay. Beginning on 2001, additional anthropogenic modifications began in Tampa Bat including construction of an underwater gas pipeline and a desalinization plant, expansion of existing ports, and increased freshwater withdrawal from three major tributaries to the bay. In January of 2001, the Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP) and its partners identifies a critical need for participation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in providing multidisciplinary expertise and a regional-scale, integrated science approach to address complex scientific research issue and critical scientific information gaps that are necessary for continued restoration and preservation of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay stakeholders identified several critical science gaps for which USGS expertise was needed (Yates et al. 2001). These critical science gaps fall under four topical categories (or system components): 1) water and sediment quality, 2) hydrodynamics, 3) geology and geomorphology, and 4) ecosystem structure and function. Scientists and resource managers participating in Tampa Bay studies recognize that it is no longer sufficient to simply examine each of these estuarine system components individually, Rather, the interrelation among system components must be understood to develop conceptual and predictive modeling tools for effective ecosystem adaptive management. As a multidisciplinary organization, the USGS possesses the capability of developing and coordinating an integrated science strategy for estuarine research founded on partnerships and collaborative efforts, multidisciplinary teams of scientists, and integrated field work, data analysis and interpretation, and product development. The primary role of the USGS in Tamps Bay research was defined with our partners based upon this capability to address estuarine issues using an integrated science approach with a regional perspective and within a national context to complement the numerous ongoing scien efforts by state and local agencies that address local issues within Tamp Bay. Six primary components of the USGS Tamp Bay Study address critical gaps within each of the the four estuarine system components and focus on: 1.) Examining how natural and man-made physical changes affect ecosystem health through mapping and modeling. 2.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 3.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 4.) Assessing the natural and man-made changes affecting wetland health and restoration, 5.) Identifying and measuring the impact of urbanization on seafloor habitats, Providing a web-based digital information management system of information for scientists and the public, including a system that supports the work of those officials who must make decisions that affect the state of the bay. The Tampa Bay Study is in its sixth year and will continue through September 2007. This paper presents a non-inclusive summary of key findings associated with the six primary project components listed above. Component 4 (above) is described in detail in the following chapter 13. More information on the Tampa Bay Study is available from our on-line digital information system for the Tampa Bay Study at http://gulfsci.usgs.gov.

Florida↗