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Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Arizona, developed with unregulated and rural peak-flow data through water year 2010

Flooding is among the worst natural disasters responsible for loss of life and property in Arizona, underscoring the importance of accurate estimation of flood magnitude for proper structural design and floodplain mapping. Twenty-four years of additional peak-flow data have been recorded since the last comprehensive regional flood frequency analysis conducted in Arizona. Periodically, flood frequency estimates and regional regression equations must be revised to maintain the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude. Annual peak-flow data collected through water year 2010 were compiled from 448 unregulated streamflow-gaging stations, hereafter referred to as streamgages, in Arizona having a minimum of 10 years of record. Flood frequency estimates were first computed with station (or at-site) skew using the Expected Moments Algorithm with a multiple Grubbs-Beck test to identify multiple potentially influential low flows to fit a Pearson Type III distribution. Next, a multiple step Bayesian least-squares-regression approach was used to determine a new statewide regional skew of −0.09. No basin characteristics analyzed were statistically significant in explaining the variation in skew and as a result, the constant model was chosen as the best regional skew model for the Arizona study area. The mean square error used in Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data is used to describe the precision of the regional skew. The constant model had a mean square error equal to 0.08, which corresponds to an effective record length of 85 years. This is a marked improvement over a previous Arizona regional skew analysis, with a reported mean square error of 0.31, for a corresponding effective record length of around 17 years. Thus the new regional model had almost five times the information content (as measured by effective record length) of that calculated in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433, published in 1997, or the value of 0.302 reported in the B17B generalized skew map. The flood frequency estimates were recalculated using a weighted skew of the station and regional skew. Station flood frequency estimates for each streamgage are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. Geographical information systems were used to compute basin characteristic information for each streamgage for the purpose of developing regional equations to estimate flood statistics at ungaged basins. Five hydrologic flood regions in Arizona were defined in a multivariate regionalization process based on mean basin elevation, mean annual precipitation, and soil permeability. A regional generalized least-squares-regression analysis was used to develop five sets of equations from 344 nonredundant streamgages, corresponding to five regions, for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged basins in Arizona. The regression equations developed for these five regions were based on one or more of the statistically significant explanatory variables: drainage area, mean basin elevation, and mean annual precipitation. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression regions for the five regions ranged from 27 to 122 percent and the pseudo-coefficients of determination (pseudo-R 2 ), a measure of the proportion of peak-flow variation that is explained by the basin characteristics, ranged from 68 to 98 percent. Regression equations for Central Highlands (region 4) had the lowest model error and the greatest pseudo-R 2 metrics. The equations for Colorado Plateau (region 2) regression equations generally had greater model error and lower pseudo-R 2 metrics. The improvement of regional regression equation model error and pseudo-R 2 metrics was related to higher numbers of streamgages, longer period of record, and even spatial coverage within a region. The regional regression equations were integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a national map-based web application that allows the public to easily access published flood frequency and basin characteristic statistics. The interactive web application allows a user to select a point within a watershed (gaged or ungaged) and retrieve flood-frequency estimates derived from the current regional regression equations and geographic information system data within the selected basin. StreamStats provides users with an efficient and accurate means for retrieving the most up to date flood frequency and basin characteristic data. StreamStats is intended to provide consistent statistics, minimize user error, and reduce the need for large datasets and costly geographic information system software.

Arizona↗

User's guide to PHREEQC (Version 2): A computer program for speciation, batch-reaction, one-dimensional transport, and inverse geochemical calculations

PHREEQC version 2 is a computer program written in the C programming language that is designed to perform a wide variety of low-temperature aqueous geochemical calculations. PHREEQC is based on an ion-association aqueous model and has capabilities for (1) speciation and saturation-index calculations; (2) batch-reaction and one-dimensional (1D) transport calculations involving reversible reactions, which include aqueous, mineral, gas, solid-solution, surface-complexation, and ion-exchange equilibria, and irreversible reactions, which include specified mole transfers of reactants, kinetically controlled reactions, mixing of solutions, and temperature changes; and (3) inverse modeling, which finds sets of mineral and gas mole transfers that account for differences in composition between waters, within specified compositional uncertainty limits.New features in PHREEQC version 2 relative to version 1 include capabilities to simulate dispersion (or diffusion) and stagnant zones in 1D-transport calculations, to model kinetic reactions with user-defined rate expressions, to model the formation or dissolution of ideal, multicomponent or nonideal, binary solid solutions, to model fixed-volume gas phases in addition to fixed-pressure gas phases, to allow the number of surface or exchange sites to vary with the dissolution or precipitation of minerals or kinetic reactants, to include isotope mole balances in inverse modeling calculations, to automatically use multiple sets of convergence parameters, to print user-defined quantities to the primary output file and (or) to a file suitable for importation into a spreadsheet, and to define solution compositions in a format more compatible with spreadsheet programs. This report presents the equations that are the basis for chemical equilibrium, kinetic, transport, and inverse-modeling calculations in PHREEQC; describes the input for the program; and presents examples that demonstrate most of the program's capabilities.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Earthquake likelihood model testing

INTRODUCTION The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective ( i.e. , the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits. Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions. In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper ( Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007 , this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative. Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a wide range of possible testing procedures exist. Jolliffe and Stephenson ( 2003 ) present different forecast verifications from atmospheric science, among them likelihood testing of probability forecasts and testing the occurrence of binary events. Testing binary events requires that for each forecasted event, the spatial, temporal and magnitude limits be given. Although major earthquakes can be considered binary events, the models within the RELM project express their forecasts on a spatial grid and in 0.1 magnitude units; thus the results are a distribution of rates over space and magnitude. These forecasts can be tested with likelihood tests. In general, likelihood tests assume a valid null hypothesis against which a given hypothesis is tested. The outcome is either a rejection of the null hypothesis in favor of the test hypothesis or a nonrejection, meaning the test hypothesis cannot outperform the null hypothesis at a given significance level. Within RELM, there is no accepted null hypothesis and thus the likelihood test needs to be expanded to allow comparable testing of equipollent hypotheses. To test models against one another, we require that forecasts are expressed in a standard format: the average rate of earthquake occurrence within pre-specified limits of hypocentral latitude, longitude, depth, magnitude, time period, and focal mechanisms. Focal mechanisms should either be described as the inclination of P -axis, declination of P -axis, and inclination of the T -axis, or as strike, dip, and rake angles. Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger ( 2007 , this issue) designed classes of these parameters such that similar models will be tested against each other. These classes make the forecasts comparable between models. Additionally, we are limited to testing only what is precisely defined and consistently reported in earthquake catalogs. Therefore it is currently not possible to test such information as fault rupture length or area, asperity location, etc. Also, to account for data quality issues, we allow for location and magnitude uncertainties as well as the probability that an event is dependent on another event. As we mentioned above, only models with comparable forecasts can be tested against each other. Our current tests are designed to examine grid-based models. This requires that any fault-based model be adapted to a grid before testing is possible. While this is a limitation of the testing, it is an inherent difficulty in any such comparative testing. Please refer to appendix B for a statistical evaluation of the application of the Poisson hypothesis to fault-based models. The testing suite we present consists of three different tests: L-Test, N-Test, and R-Test. These tests are defined similarily to Kagan and Jackson ( 1995 ). The first two tests examine the consistency of the hypotheses with the observations while the last test compares the spatial performances of the models.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Hydrogeologic framework of the Mountain Home area, southern Idaho

In the arid western Snake River Plain around the City of Mountain Home, Idaho, declining groundwater levels concern agricultural, municipal, and other water users who rely on groundwater for sustenance because surface-water resources are limited. The U.S. Geological Survey developed this hydrogeologic framework to provide an updated characterization of groundwater resources in the western Snake River Plain around the City of Mountain Home. The hydrogeologic framework comprises: (1) a conceptual description of hydrogeologic units, (2) a three-dimensional hydrogeologic model and borehole database, (3) a map of groundwater levels and change, and (4) a discussion of groundwater occurrence and movement within the study area. Hydrogeologic units were defined based on existing literature and the borehole database compiled for this study; the five hydrogeologic units are granite, rhyolite, basalt, fine-grained sediments, and coarse-grained sediments. Each unit can bear water, but the main regional aquifer in the study area occurs in the basalt and fine-grained sediment units with depth to water ranging from 150 to 765 feet. A perched groundwater zone near the City of Mountain Home is primarily hosted in basalt and used domestically with most depths to water ranging from 30 to 100 feet. Interflow zones, scoria, and vertical fractures create heterogeneity within the basalt hydrogeologic unit that exerts strong control on groundwater movement, creating horizontal perching conditions and zones of enhanced vertical conductivity that facilitate downward groundwater percolation. In the fine- and coarse-grained sediments and rhyolite units, inferred faults both impede and enhance groundwater movement. The borehole database was constructed by digitizing 540 well-driller reports and was used to build a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model which reasonably represents the spatial distribution of hydrogeologic units in the study area. Generally, fine-grained sediments underlie much of the study area, with basalt concentrated in the central and western study area and rhyolite and granite in the uplands to the north. Groundwater levels were measured in 180 wells in March and November 2023; these data were used to develop water-table contour maps and describe groundwater-level change over an irrigation season. Groundwater generally flows south-southwest to the Snake River and groundwater levels declined across most of the study area (from 0.03 to 22.01 feet) between spring and autumn 2023, which is consistent with long-term declines in the Cinder Cone Butte Critical Groundwater Area and Mountain Home Groundwater Management Area. Groundwater levels rose (0.6 to 15.44 feet) over the irrigation season in most wells in the perched groundwater zone near the City of Mountain Home and near the Snake River, indicating the importance of surface-water recharge to groundwater in areas where surface water irrigation occurs. In aggregate, this hydrogeologic framework provides an updated characterization of and new insights into groundwater resources in the study area to help inform water resources management.

Idaho↗

Simulation of three-dimensional groundwater flow

The purpose of the study described in this supplement of Chapter A (Supplement 4) is to construct, simulate, and calibrate a groundwater-flow model that represents the hydro - geologic framework and related groundwater-flow conditions described by Faye (2012) and Faye et al. (2013) within the vicinity of the Hadnot Point–Holcomb Boulevard (HPHB) study area, U.S. Marine Corp Base (USMCB) Camp Lejeune (Figure S4.1). Multiple variants of the groundwater-flow model were constructed and are described herein. The models simulate groundwater-flow conditions in the Brewster Boule vard, Tarawa Terrace, and Upper and Middle Castle Hayne aquifer systems from January 1942 to June 2008. Much of the discussion and analyses described herein parallel and partially duplicate methods and approaches described in similar reports of groundwater-flow investigations at Tarawa Terrace (TT) and vicinity by Faye and Valenzuela (2007). Model results were eventually used within several contaminant fate and transport models described by Jones et al. (2013) and Jang et al. (2013) for the historical reconstruction of finished-water 3 concen trations within the service areas of the Hadnot Point and Holcomb Boulevard water treatment plants (HPWTP and HBWTP, respectively). This supplement focuses on the description of groundwater-flow model geometry, boundaries, hydraulic properties, calibration, and sensitivity analyses.

North Carolina↗

Computational considerations for collecting and using data in the equidistant cylindrical map projection and the bounds of sampling geographic data at progressively higher resolution

The Equidistant Cylindrical Map projection is popular with digital modelers and others for storing and processing worldwide data sets because of the simple association of latitude and longitude to cell values or pixels in the resulting grid. This projection does not accurately display area, and the diminished geographic area represented by cells at high latitudes is not often carefully considered. A simple mathematical analysis quantifies the discrepancy in area sampled by cells at different latitudes. The presence of this discrepancy indicates that the use of this projection can induce bias in data sets when both sampling and reporting data. It is demonstrated that as the resolution requirements of input data for models increase, the necessity of providing data to accurately describe smaller cells, particularly at high latitude, will be a challenge.

Techniques and Methods↗

U.S. Geological Survey assessment concepts for conventional petroleum accumulations: Chapter 24 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California

Conventional petroleum accumulations are discrete fields or pools localized in structural or stratigraphic traps by the buoyancy of oil or gas in water; they float, bubble-like, in water. This report describes the fundamental concepts supporting the U.S. Geological Survey “Seventh Approximation” model for resource assessments of conventional accumulations. The Seventh Approximation provides a strategy for estimating volumes of undiscovered petroleum (oil, gas, and coproducts) having the potential to be added to reserves in a 30-year forecast span. The assessment of an area requires (1) choice of a minimum accumulation size, (2) assignment of geologic and access risk, and (3) estimation of the number and sizes of undiscovered accumulations in the assessment area. The combination of these variables yields probability distributions for potential additions to reserves. Assessment results are controlled by geology-based input parameters supplied by knowledgeable geologists, as opposed to projections of historical trends.

Professional Paper↗

The marine terraces of Santa Cruz Island, California: Implications for glacial isostatic adjustment models of last-interglacial sea-level history

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models hypothesize that along coastal California, last interglacial (LIG, broadly from ~130 to ~115 ka) sea level could have been as high as +11 m to +13 m, relative to present, substantially higher than the commonly estimated elevation of +6 m. Areas with low uplift rates can test whether such models are valid. Marine terraces on Santa Cruz Island have previously been reported to occur at low (<10 m) elevations, but ages of many such localities are not known. Using lidar imagery as a base, marine terraces on Santa Cruz Island were newly mapped, elevations were measured, fossils were collected for U-series dating (corals), strontium isotope compositions and amino acid geochronology (mollusks), and paleozoogeography (all taxa). Sr isotope compositions of mollusks from the highest of three marine terraces give ages of ~2.5 Ma to 1.9 Ma, along with Pliocene ages, from shells interpreted to be reworked. U-series ages of corals from the western part of the island indicate that low-elevation terraces north of the Santa Cruz Island fault correlate to the LIG. Where corals are lacking, amino acid ratios and faunal aspects support terrace correlation to the LIG high stand of sea. Elevations of most terrace localities north of the east-west trending Santa Cruz Island fault, in both the western and eastern parts of the island, range from 5.75 m to 8 m above sea level, well below the modeled paleo-sea-level range. Subsidence is ruled out as a mechanism for explaining the lower-than-modeled elevations, because higher-elevation terraces are present along much of the Santa Cruz Island coast north of the fault, indicating long-term tectonic uplift. The low elevations of the LIG terrace fragments are, however, consistent with a low rate of uplift derived from the higher, ~2.5–1.9 Ma terrace. A number of other localities on the Pacific Coast, also dated to the LIG, have marine terrace elevations below the modeled level. GIA models may have overestimated last interglacial sea level by a substantial amount and need to be revised if used for forecasts for future sea-level rise.

California↗

Opportunistically collected data reveal habitat selection by migrating Whooping Cranes in the U.S. Northern Plains

The Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ) is a federally endangered species in the United States and Canada that relies on wetland, grassland, and cropland habitat during its long migration between wintering grounds in coastal Texas, USA, and breeding sites in Alberta and Northwest Territories, Canada. We combined opportunistic Whooping Crane sightings with landscape data to identify correlates of Whooping Crane occurrence along the migration corridor in North Dakota and South Dakota, USA. Whooping Cranes selected landscapes characterized by diverse wetland communities and upland foraging opportunities. Model performance substantially improved when variables related to detection were included, emphasizing the importance of accounting for biases associated with detection and reporting of birds in opportunistic datasets. We created a predictive map showing relative probability of occurrence across the study region by applying our model to GIS data layers; validation using independent, unbiased locations from birds equipped with platform transmitting terminals indicated that our final model adequately predicted habitat use by migrant Whooping Cranes. The probability map demonstrated that existing conservation efforts have protected much top-tier Whooping Crane habitat, especially in the portions of North Dakota and South Dakota that lie east of the Missouri River. Our results can support species recovery by informing prioritization for acquisition and restoration of landscapes that provide safe roosting and foraging habitats. Our results can also guide the siting of structures such as wind towers and electrical transmission and distribution lines, which pose a strike and mortality risk to migrating Whooping Cranes.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Acute and chronic sensitivity of white sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) to cadmium, copper, lead, or zinc in laboratory water-only exposures

White sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) are experiencing poor recruitment in the trans boundary reach of the upper Columbia River in eastern Washington State. Limited toxicity data indicated that early life stages of white sturgeon are sensitive to metals. In acute 4-day (d) exposures with larval white sturgeon, previous studies have reported that the 4-day median lethal concentrations (LC50) based on biotic ligand model (BLM) normalization for copper were below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency national recommended acute water-quality criterion. In previously published chronic 66-d exposures starting with newly fertilized eggs of white sturgeon, 20-percent lethal effect concentrations (LC20s) for copper, cadmium, or zinc generally were within a factor of two of the chronic values of the most sensitive fish species in the databases of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency water-quality criteria (WQC) for the three metals. However, there were some uncertainties in the chronic exposures previously performed with white sturgeon, including (1) low control survival (37 percent), (2) more control fish tested in each replicate compared to other treatments, (3) limited replication of treatments (n=2), (4) lack of reported growth data (such as dry weight), and (5) wide dilution factors for exposure concentrations (6- to 8-fold dilutions). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency concluded that additional studies are needed to generate more toxicity data to better define lethal and sublethal toxicity thresholds for metals for white sturgeon. The objective of the study was to further evaluate the acute and chronic toxicity of cadmium, copper, lead, or zinc to early life stages of white sturgeon in water-only exposures. Toxicity tests also were performed with commonly tested rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) under similar test conditions to determine the relative sensitivity between white sturgeon and rainbow trout to these metals. Toxicity data generated from this study were used to evaluate the sensitivity of early life stages of white sturgeon and rainbow trout relative to data published for other test organisms. Toxicity data generated from this study also were used to evaluate the level of protection of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency WQC or Washington State water-quality standards (WQS) for copper, zinc, cadmium, or lead to white sturgeon inhabiting the upper Columbia River. Chapter A of this report summarizes the results of acute toxicity tests performed for 4 d with white sturgeon and rainbow trout exposed to copper, cadmium, or zinc. Chapter B of this report summarizes the results of chronic toxicity tests performed for as many as 53 days with white sturgeon or rainbow trout exposed to copper, cadmium, zinc, or lead. Appendixes to the report are available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5204 . Supporting documentation for chapter A toxicity testing is provided in appendix 1. Supporting documentation for chapter B toxicity testing is provided in Appendix 2. Supporting documentation on analysis of water chemistry for chapter A and chapter B is provided in appendix 3 and 4. The rationale for applying corrections to measured copper and zinc values in water samples from some of the toxicity tests performed in chapter A is provided in appendix 5. A summary of dissolved organic carbon measurement variability and implications for biotic ligand model normalization for toxicity data summarized in chapter A and chapter B are provided in appendix 6. An evaluation of an interlaboratory comparison of analyses for dissolved organic carbon in water from the U.S. Geological Survey Columbia Environmental Research Center and University of Saskatchewan is provided in appendix 7. Finally, appendix 8 provides a summary of retesting of white sturgeon in 2012 to determine if improved survival of sturgeon would affect copper effect concentrations in 24-d copper exposures started with newly hatched larvae, and to evaluate the effect of light intensity or temperature on the response of newly hatched larvae during a 25-d study.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Areal distribution and concentration of contaminants of concern in surficial streambed and lakebed sediments, Lake St. Clair and tributaries, Michigan, 1990-2003

As part of the Lake St. Clair Regional Monitoring Project, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated data collected from surficial streambed and lakebed sediments in the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair drainages. This study incorporates data collected from 1990 through 2003 and focuses primarily on the U.S. part of the Lake St. Clair Basin, including Lake St. Clair, the St. Clair River, and tributaries to Lake St. Clair. Comparable data from the Canadian part of the study area are included where available. The data are compiled into 4 chemical classes and consist of 21 compounds. The data are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines, where the Threshold Effect Level and Lowest Effect Level represent concentrations below which adverse effects on biota are not expected and the Probable Effect Level and Severe Effect Level represent concentrations above which adverse effects on biota are expected to be frequent. Maps in the report show the spatial distribution of the sampling locations and illustrate the concentrations relative to the selected sediment-quality guidelines. These maps indicate that sediment samples from certain areas routinely had contaminant concentrations greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. These locations are the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, and Paint Creek. Maps also indicated areas that routinely contained sediment contaminant concentrations that were greater than the Probable Effect Concentration or Severe Effect Level. These locations include the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Red Run, within direct tributaries along Lake St. Clair and in marinas within the lake, and within the Clinton River headwaters in Oakland County. Although most samples collected within Lake St. Clair were from sites adjacent to the mouths of its tributaries, samples analyzed for trace-element concentrations were collected throughout the lake. The distribution of trace-element concentrations corresponded well with the results of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of flow patterns from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair. The model was developed independent from the bed sediment analysis described in this report; yet it showed a zone of deposition for outflow from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair that corresponded well with the spatial distribution of trace-element concentrations. This zone runs along the western shoreline of Lake St. Clair from L'Anse Creuse Bay to St. Clair Shores, Michigan and is reflected in the samples analyzed for mercury and cadmium. Statistical summaries of the concentration data are presented for most contaminants, and selected statistics are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines. Summaries were not computed for dieldrin, chlordane, hexachlorocyclohexane, lindane, and mirex because insufficient data are available for these contaminants. A statistical comparison showed that the median concentration for hexachlorobenzene, anthracene, benz[ a ]anthracene, chrysene, and pyrene are greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients provide a mechanism for comparing the concentrations of contaminant mixtures against effects-based biota data. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated for individual samples and compared to effects-based toxicity ranges. The toxicity-range categories used in this study were nontoxic (quotients < 0.5) and toxic (quotients > 0.5). Of the 546 individual samples for which Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated, 469 (86 percent) were categorized as being nontoxic and 77 (14 percent) were categorized as being toxic. Bed-sediment samples with toxic Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were collected from Paint Creek, Galloway Creek, the main stem of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, Clinton River towards the mouth, Lake St. Clair along the western shore, and the St. Clair River near Sarnia.

Michigan↗

Summary of selected computer programs produced by the U.S. Geological Survey for simulation of ground-water flow and quality, 1994

A summary list of reports that document numerical methods that simulate ground-water flow and quality is presented. The list documents the reference by giving a description of each model program, its numerical features, an expression of the number of past applications and where to obtain a copy. All reports included in the list have been published or developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and most contain listings of the computer programs.

Circular↗

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River basin, northeastern California, and streamflow predictability, water years 1971-97

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River Basin of northern California determine short- and long-term streamflow variations that are of considerable local, State, and Federal concern. The river is an important source of water and power for the region. The basin forms the headwaters of the California State Water Project. Lake Oroville, at the outlet of the basin, plays an important role in flood management, water quality, and the health of fisheries as far downstream as the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Existing models of the river simulate streamflow in hourly, daily, weekly, and seasonal time steps, but cannot adequately describe responses to climate and land-use variations in the basin. New spatially detailed precipitation-runoff models of the basin have been developed to simulate responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than was available previously. This report characterizes daily rainfall, snowpack evolution, runoff, water and energy balances, and streamflow variations from, and within, the basin above Lake Oroville. The new model's ability to predict streamflow is assessed. The Feather River Basin sits astride geologic, topographic, and climatic divides that establish a hydrologic character that is relatively unusual among the basins of the Sierra Nevada. It straddles a north-south geologic transition in the Sierra Nevada between the granitic bedrock that underlies and forms most of the central and southern Sierra Nevada and volcanic bedrock that underlies the northernmost parts of the range (and basin). Because volcanic bedrock generally is more permeable than granitic, the northern, volcanic parts of the basin contribute larger fractions of ground-water flow to streams than do the southern, granitic parts of the basin. The Sierra Nevada topographic divide forms a high altitude ridgeline running northwest to southeast through the middle of the basin. The topography east of this ridgeline is more like the rain-shadowed basins of the northeastern Sierra Nevada than the uplands of most western Sierra Nevada river basins. The climate is mediterranean, with most of the annual precipitation occurring in winter. Because the basin includes large areas that are near the average snowline, rainfall and rain-snow mixtures are common during winter storms. Consequently, the overall timing and rates of runoff from the basin are highly sensitive to winter temperature fluctuations. The models were developed to simulate runoff-generating processes in eight drainages of the Feather River Basin. Together, these models simulate streamflow from 98 percent of the basin above Lake Oroville. The models simulate daily water and heat balances, snowpack evolution and snowmelt, evaporation and transpiration, subsurface water storage and outflows, and streamflow to key streamflow gage sites. The drainages are modeled as 324 hydrologic-response units, each of which is assumed homogeneous in physical characteristics and response to precipitation and runoff. The models were calibrated with emphasis on reproducing monthly streamflow rates, and model simulations were compared to the total natural inflows into Lake Oroville as reconstructed by the California Department of Water Resources for April-July snowmelt seasons from 1971 to 1997. The models are most sensitive to input values and patterns of precipitation and soil characteristics. The input precipitation values were allowed to vary on a daily basis to reflect available observations by making daily transformations to an existing map of long-term mean monthly precipitation rates that account for altitude and rain-shadow effects. The models effectively simulate streamflow into Lake Oroville during water years (October through September) 1971-97, which is demonstrated in hydrographs and statistical results presented in this report.

Northeastern California↗

Documentation of Model Input and Output Values Used for Analyses of Simulated Development in Stagecoac Valley, Lyon and Storey Counties, Western Nevada

A previously published Geological Survey report (Professional Paper 1409-H) describes ground-water flow and simulated development scenarios in Stagecoach Valley, Lyon and Storey Counties, Nevada. This study was done as part of the Survey's Great Basin Regional Aquifer-Systems Analysis program. Documentation of model input and output values used for analysis of ground-water flow and simulated development scenarios in Stagecoach Valley, Lyon and Storey Counties, in western Nevada, has not been published previously. In this report, the documen- tation, consisting of a listing of input values and sample output, is contained on a 5-1/4-inch diskette in files presented according to the American International Standard Code for Information Inter- change (ASCII) format. These files require approxi- mately 760,000 bytes of disk space on an IBM- compatible microcomputer using the MS-DOS operating system.

Open-File Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey external quality-assurance project report for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program / National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network, 2011-2012

The U.S. Geological Survey operated six distinct programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) / National Trends Network (NTN) and Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) during 2011–2012. The field-audit program assessed the effects of onsite exposure, sample handling, and shipping on the chemistry of NTN samples; a system-blank program assessed the same effects for MDN. Two interlaboratory-comparison programs assessed the bias and variability of the chemical analysis data from the Central Analytical Laboratory and Mercury Analytical Laboratory (HAL). A blind-audit program was implemented for the MDN during 2011 to evaluate analytical bias in HAL total mercury concentration data. The co-located–sampler program was used to identify and quantify potential shifts in NADP data resulting from the replacement of original network instrumentation with new electronic recording rain gages and precipitation collectors that use optical precipitation sensors. The results indicate that NADP data continue to be of sufficient quality for the analysis of spatial distributions and time trends of chemical constituents in wet deposition across the United States. Co-located rain gage results indicate -3.7 to +6.5 percent bias in NADP precipitation-depth measurements. Co-located collector results suggest that the retrofit of the NADP networks with the new precipitation collectors could cause +10 to +36 percent shifts in NADP annual deposition values for ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate; -7.5 to +41 percent shifts for hydrogen-ion deposition; and larger shifts (-51 to +52 percent) for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, and chloride. The prototype N-CON Systems bucket collector typically catches more precipitation than the NADP-approved Aerochem Metrics Model 301 collector.

Report↗

Water Supply in the Mojave River Ground-Water Basin, 1931-99, and the Benefits of Artificial Recharge

The Mojave River and the associated aquifer system are important water supplies in the Mojave Desert of southern California. The river and aquifer system are in hydraulic connection in many areas, and when flow conditions change in one, the other usually is affected. The river is an unpredictable source of water; therefore, residents of the basin rely almost entirely on ground water for their water supply. This reliance on ground water has resulted in overdraft conditions that have caused water-level declines, changes in the quantity and spatial distribution of recharge from the Mojave River, and loss of riparian habitat. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Mojave Water Agency (MWA), has completed several studies to determine the likely effects of overdraft on the ground-water and surface-water relations along the Mojave River. This report summarizes those studies, highlighting some of the simulation results from a ground-water flow model, and describes the ground-water and surface-water conditions of the Mojave River Basin.

Fact Sheet↗

Assessment of the role of bottomland hardwoods in sediment and erosion control

Drainage and clearing of bottomland hardwoods have long been recognized by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) as important impacts of Federal water projects in the lower Mississippi River Valley. More recently, the water quality impacts of such projects (e.g., increases in sediments, nutrients, and pesticides) have also become of concern. In 1984, in an effort to better define problems concerning wetland losses and water degradation, EPA initiated a cooperative project with the Western Energy and Land Use Team (now the National Ecology Research Center) of the Service. Three phases of the project were identified: 1. To collect existing literature and data; 2. To select, develop, and test the utility of methods to quantify the relationships between land use, cover types, soils, hydrology, and water quality (as represented by sediment); and 3. To apply selected methodologies to several sites within the Yazoo Basin of Mississippi to determine the, potential effectiveness of various management alternatives to reduce sediment yield, increase sediment deposition, and improve water quality. Methods development focused on linking a simulation of water and sediment movement to a computerized geographic information system. We had several objectives for the resulting model. We desired that it should: 1. Estimate the importance of bottomland and hardwoods as a cover type that performs the functions of erosion and sediment control, 2. Simulate effects of proportions of ' various cover types and their specific spatial configurations, 3. Be applicable to moderately large spatial areas with minimal site-specific calibration, 4. Simulate spatial patterns of sediment loss-gain over time, and 5. Represent both sediment detachment and transport. While it was recognized that impacts and management alternatives could be sorted roughly into landscape measures and channel measures, the decision was made to focus study efforts mainly on landscape measures. Landscape measures include altered drainage and flooding patterns, altered cover types (e.g., conversion of bottomland hardwoods to agricultural crops, reforestation of cropland to bottomland hardwoods, and creation of riparian buffer strips), altered cropping and tillage patterns, altered routing of water, and creation of buffer strips along wetlands and channel margins. Channel measures include vegetative bank stabilization, grade control structures, and regulation of channel water volume and velocity. During the first year of the study, EPA decided not to fund the third phase of the project. This required considerable rescoping of the project with the result that application of the sediment mobilization, routing, and deposition models to various management alternatives and portions of the Yazoo Basin was somewhat restricted. We believe, however, that this report will provide a good understanding of the various modes of sediment mobilization, transport, and deposition within the Yazoo Basin, as well as of the role of bottomland hardwoods. The model developed in this study could be applied to a variety of management or mitigation alternatives prior to implementation to determine their relative effectiveness. Policy, political, and socio-economic consequences of any proposed management/mitigation practice, however, must ultimately be taken into consideration by those charged with management of water resources within the Yazoo Basin before any practice is implemented. This study makes no effort to judge the feasibility of management alternatives in this regard.

Report↗

Bioaccumulation kinetics of model pharmaceuticals in the freshwater unionid pondmussel, Sagittunio subrostratus

Bioaccumulation of ionizable pharmaceuticals has been increasingly studied, with most reported aquatic tissue concentrations in field or laboratory experiments being from fish. However, higher levels of antidepressants have been observed in bivalves compared with fish from effluent-dominated and dependent surface waters. Such observations may be important for biodiversity because approximately 70% of freshwater bivalves in North America are considered to be vulnerable to extinction. Because experimental bioaccumulation information for freshwater bivalves is lacking, we examined accumulation dynamics in the freshwater pondmussel, Sagittunio subrostratus , following exposure to a model weak acid, acetaminophen (mean (±SD) = 4.9 ± 1 µg L –1 ), and a model weak base, sertraline (mean (±SD) = 1.1 ± 1.1 µg L –1 ) during 14-day uptake and 7-day depuration experiments. Pharmaceutical concentrations were analyzed in water and tissue using isotope dilution liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Mussels accumulated two orders of magnitude higher concentrations of sertraline (31.7 ± 9.4 µg g –1 ) compared to acetaminophen (0.3 ± 0.1 µg g –1 ). Ratio and kinetic-based bioaccumulation factors of 28,836.4 (L kg –1 ) and 34.9 (L kg –1 ) were calculated for sertraline and for acetaminophen at 65.3 (L kg –1 ) and 0.13 (L kg –1 ), respectively. However, after 14 days sertraline did not reach steady-state concentrations, although it was readily eliminated by S. subrostratus . Acetaminophen rapidly reached steady-state conditions but was not depurated over a 7-day period. Future bioaccumulation studies of ionizable pharmaceuticals in freshwater bivalves appear warranted. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1–7. © 2023 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Missouri↗