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USGS2024

Exploring landscape and geologic controls on spatial patterning of streambank groundwater discharge in a mixed land use watershed

Preferential groundwater discharge features along stream corridors are ecologically important at local and stream network scales, yet we lack quantification of the multiscale controls on the spatial patterning of groundwater discharge. Here we identify physical attributes that best explain variation in the presence and lateral extent of preferential groundwater discharges along two 5th order streams, the Housatonic and Farmington Rivers, and 32 1st to 4th order reaches across the Farmington River network. We mapped locations of preferential groundwater discharge exposed along streambanks using handheld thermal infrared cameras paired with high-resolution topographic and land use land cover datasets, surficial soil characteristic maps, and depth-to-bedrock geophysical measurements. The unconfined Housatonic River, MA, USA (12 km) had fewer discharge locations and less lateral extent (41 discharge locations with 38 m of active discharge/km of river) compared to the partially confined Farmington River, CT, USA (26 km; 169 discharge locations with 129 m of active discharge/km of river). Using a moving window analysis, we found along both rivers that discharge was more likely to occur where bank slopes were steeper, floodplain extent was narrower, and degree of confinement was higher. Along the Farmington River, groundwater discharge was more likely to occur where saturated hydraulic conductivity was higher and depth-to-bedrock was shallower. Among the 32 stream reaches surveyed (33.2 km of total stream length) within the Farmington River watershed, preferential discharge was observed in all but two stream reaches, varied from 0 to 25% of lateral extent along stream banks (mean = 6%), and was more likely to occur where stream reach slopes were steep, saturated hydraulic conductivity was high, and watershed urbanization was low. Our results show that, though both surface (e.g., topographic, land use land cover) and subsurface (e.g., soil characteristics, bedrock depth) factors control the prevalence of streambank preferential groundwater discharge, the dominant controls vary across valley settings and stream sizes.

Connecticut, Massachusetts↗
USGS2026

Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronology from Marsh Creek anticline reconciles Cenozoic and Holocene strain patterns and elucidates the Cenozoic canning displacement zone of Arctic Alaska

The northeastern Brooks Range is a vast fold-thrust belt that records the northernmost expression of Cenozoic deformation in Alaska, likely with complex dynamic linkages to distant tectonic elements. The principal focus of this manuscript is the Marsh Creek anticline (MCA), which is a large and recently active structure within the broader northeastern Brooks Range. The MCA is a complex, polyphase structure mostly buried beneath the Arctic coastal plain. We present apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) dates from six outcrop samples, all near the structural crest of the anticline, as well as supporting detrital zircon U/Pb (ZUPb) age spectra from five outcrop samples. The AHe sample transect spans ~3 km of structural relief. The four shallowest AHe samples are not reset. However, the two deepest samples exhibit low intrasample variability among replicates and strong date versus grain radius correlations, suggesting post-depositional burial heating to within the AHe partial retention zone. Inverse thermal history modeling of these data resolves a protracted phase of exhumational cooling that began around 33–28 Ma. Detrital ZUPb age spectra from Paleogene strata support an interpretation of diverse inherited thermal histories recorded by the AHe data, and they are also consistent with extant reconstructions of Paleogene sediment dispersal. Placed into regional context, the results constrain a phase of increasing structural relief in the northeastern Brooks Range fold-thrust belt that began by the Eocene. The relief developed in a zone characterized by diminishing structural relief to the west called the Canning displacement zone. Although this zone was active since the Eocene, several structures including the studied part of the MCA were rapidly exhumed in the Oligocene. Lastly, we argue for kinematic compatibility between Cenozoic contraction and active strike-slip in the northeastern Brooks Range, with the temporal change in strain style likely reflecting the increase in structural relief and topography.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Simulation-based scenario ShakeMaps for large magnitude (MW6.5+) crustal earthquakes on the Seattle, Tacoma, and southern Whidbey Island faults, Washington, USA

Scenario ground‐motion maps based on empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs) provide a rapid and generally reliable means of estimating the amplitude and distribution of earthquake shaking. However, because GMMs are designed for broad applicability, they often rely on simplified representations of Earth structure, which can limit their accuracy in regions with complex source, path, and site effects. This can substantially impact the accuracy of predicted shaking in areas like western Washington State, where deep, interconnected basin structure exerts a strong influence on seismic‐wave propagation. In this study, we present a new suite of simulation‐based scenario ShakeMaps that characterize ground shaking from large‐magnitude ( ⁠ M W 6.5–7.5) earthquakes on the Seattle, Tacoma, and southern Whidbey Island faults. These maps are developed using results from recent 3D wave propagation simulations ( Stone et al. , 2022 , 2023 , 2025 ) that incorporate realistic rupture geometries, variable slip distributions, and a regional 3D seismic velocity model with shallow soils. Broadband ground motions are estimated by combining the low‐frequency (<1 Hz) deterministic seismograms from these studies with high‐frequency (1–10 Hz) stochastic seismograms. Simulated ground motions are corrected to account for the enforced minimum shear‐wave velocity and nonlinear site response. The resulting ShakeMaps represent median ground‐shaking estimates derived from multiple rupture scenarios with varying slip distributions and hypocenter locations for each fault. To extend ShakeMap coverage beyond the simulation domain (i.e., into eastern Washington, northern Oregon, and southwestern British Columbia), we scale GMM‐based ground‐motion estimates using amplification patterns observed in the simulations. These new ShakeMaps reveal the substantial influence of deep basin structure on shaking intensity, underscoring the importance of considering crustal structure complexity in regional hazard assessments for the Pacific Northwest.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Reaction kinetics and accelerant effects of sulfides in early mature hydrocarbon generation using hydrous pyrolysis

Hydrocarbon generation in organic-rich sediments is influenced by the molecular organic composition and relative abundance of associated minerals. Certain mineral-derived elements act as catalysts and reaction intermediaries, facilitating early-stage hydrocarbon formation in potential source rocks. This study investigated the role of sulfur contributed from pyrite as an accelerant in thermal reaction, focusing on its effects on early maturation and consequent hydrocarbon generation from gilsonite (low-sulfur solid petroleum). Hydrous pyrolysis (HP) experiments were conducted on mixtures of gilsonite and pyrite in varying ratios (1:0.1, 1:0.5, 1:1, 1:2, and 1:10 w/w gilsonite:pyrite) at 320, 350, and 370 °C for 72 h. Untreated and thermally altered residues were analyzed using solid bitumen reflectance (BR o , %), total organic carbon (TOC) content, programmed temperature pyrolysis, scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) to evaluate the potential accelerant role of pyritic sulfur in hydrocarbon formation. The results show HP residues at 320 and 350 °C with greater pyrite concentrations had higher BR o , while reflectance values were similar in the 370 °C residues, regardless of pyrite concentration, suggesting enhanced reaction at lower thermal conditions. Increasing pyrite content systematically decreased hydrogen index (HI) values while increasing the transformation ratio (TR) and production index (PI), indicating enhanced conversion of organic matter to hydrocarbons with increasing pyrite concentrations. Gas yields increased with pyrite addition, particularly at 350 °C, confirming secondary cracking effects. However, gas production stabilized or declined at higher pyrite loadings (1:10), suggesting alternative reaction pathways such as coke formation. Our data indicate the presence of pyrite lowers the activation energy for thermal cracking, shifting peak experimental hydrocarbon generation temperatures downward by 20–30 °C, with the most pronounced accelerant effects observed at moderate pyrite concentrations (1:0.5 and 1:1). The thermodynamic framework reveals that pyrite stability is influenced by experimental conditions, with pyrrhotite formation favored in the presence of gilsonite due to reduced oxygen fugacity. Pyrite transformation to pyrrhotite, as observed through XRD, SEM-EDS, and predicted by thermodynamic data, further supports the accelerant role of S, as pyrrhotite exhibits a higher hydrogen transfer potential, promoting early oil generation. These findings highlight the importance of pyrite in modulating hydrocarbon generation pathways in organic-rich systems.

Journal of Analytical and Applied Pyrolysis↗
USGS2025

Stratigraphy, structure, and geomorphology of the central Appalachians across the North Mountain fault zone near Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA

This field trip focuses on the geology of the central Appalachian Valley and Ridge province near Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA. Recent geologic mapping utilizing 1-m resolution lidar data has revealed new insights into the Paleozoic stratigraphy, structural geology, and Neogene landscape evolution of the region. The detailed mapping reveals the presence of the Big Spring Station Member and multiple thrombolite zones in the Cambrian Conococheague Formation extending as far south as the Briery Branch 7.5 min quadrangle, providing insights into Late Cambrian sea-level fluctuations. Multiple outcrop exposures in the study area of this guidebook confirm recent work in Pennsylvania, USA, showing that the Ordovician Reedsville Shale overlies the Martinsburg Formation and that the two are distinct and mappable as separate formations rather than laterally equivalent units as previously interpreted. Our work extends the Silurian Williamsport Sandstone into Shenandoah County, Virginia, and describes its facies relationships with the Bloomsburg Formation along strike and across the Adams Run anticline. Mapping within the thick Devonian siliciclastic sequence reveals the presence of the Mahantango Formation on the western limb of Supin Lick syncline and illustrates its complex facies relationship with the Millboro Shale. In addition, we highlight new mapping criteria for the Brallier and Foreknobs Formations and demonstrate how the specific changes to the placement of the contact between them addresses previous challenges in their differentiation. We present cosmogenic burial ages of broad alluvial fan sediments in the Shenandoah Valley near Timberville and Briery Branch, Virginia, and erosion rates estimated for the Briery Branch stream basin. Both analyses provide new constraints on the timing of landscape evolution and karst development since the middle Pliocene. This field guide also highlights some significant structural features within the North Mountain fault zone, such as evidence of imbricated thrust sheets cut by cross-strike faults that have been exploited by Eocene igneous intrusions. Map-scale horses of Silurian and Ordovician rocks hold up ridges that are oblique to the regional strike. Deformation internal to one of these horse blocks is shown to be non-coaxial with respect to the main regional northwest directed transport.

Virginia↗
USGS2024

Revision of ModelMuse to support the use of PEST software with MODFLOW and SUTRA models

Executive Summary ModelMuse is a graphical user interface for several groundwater modeling programs. ModelMuse was updated to generate the input files for the parameter estimation software suite PEST. The software is used with MODFLOW or SUTRA models to run PEST-based parameter estimation and display the updated model inputs after parameter estimation. The PEST input files can also be used with the PEST++ version 5 software suite. Parameter estimation typically requires defining the parameters being adjusted during calibration and observations for assessing calibration quality. After a parameter is defined in ModelMuse, it can be applied to all or part of a model dataset. Pilot points—a parameterization device that facilitates higher levels of parameterization—can be used to assign spatially variable distributions of model inputs. Parameters can be applied to temporally varying features, such as boundary conditions, by either applying them to all the values in a series in one step or by applying separate parameters to individual members of a series. ModelMuse allows the definition of many observation types from various model output files. For MODFLOW 6 and SUTRA models, new options were added to ModelMuse to allow it to display the changed input after parameter estimation is complete. For MODFLOW–2005 and MODFLOW–NWT models, ModelMuse can import an entire model for visualization. An example illustrates the use of PEST with a MODFLOW 6 model in ModelMuse.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2023

A comprehensive fault system inversion approach: Methods and application to NSHM23

We present updated inversion‐based fault‐system solutions for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23), standardizing earthquake rate model calculations on crustal faults across the western United States. We build upon the inversion methodology used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to solve for time‐independent rates of earthquakes in an interconnected fault system. The updated model explicitly maps out a wide range of fault recurrence and segmentation behavior (epistemic uncertainty), more completely exploring the solution space of viable models beyond those of UCERF3. We also improve the simulated annealing implementation, greatly increasing computational efficiency (and thus inversion convergence), and introduce an adaptive constraint weight calculation algorithm that helps to mediate between competing constraints. Hazard calculations show that ingredient changes (especially fault and deformation models) are the primary driver of hazard changes between NSHM23 and UCERF3. Updates to the inversion methodology are also consequential near faults in which the slip rate in UCERF3 was poorly fit or was satisfied primarily using large multifault ruptures that are now restricted by explicit b ‐value and segmentation constraints.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2025

Bayesian ETAS modeling for the Pacific Northwest: Uncovering effects of tectonic regimes, regional differences, and swarms on aftershock parameters

The Pacific Northwest (PNW) of North America has high seismic hazard due to numerous earthquake sources under populated areas. It hosts several tectonic regimes and subregional seismic zones that are hypothesized to have different patterns of earthquake and aftershock occurrence. It is also predisposed to earthquake swarms, which can complicate the statistical modeling of these patterns. We present the first statistical seismicity model of the PNW catalog using the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) framework. We develop a Bayesian inference procedure that provides a stable estimation of both ETAS parameters and their uncertainties for different sets of PNW earthquakes, even those with very sparse catalogs. The Bayesian approach allows us to investigate how parameter estimates change between the intraslab and crustal tectonic regimes, the northern and southern PNW, and when swarms are included and excluded from the catalog. We also utilize our Bayesian framework to calculate parameter estimates under different prior beliefs about PNW seismicity, as well as to propagate catalog measurement errors into ETAS parameter estimates. We discuss the implications of parameter differences across the region for aftershock forecasting for the PNW.

Pacific Northwest↗
USGS1976

A comparison of electronic particle counting and pipette techniques in routine mud analysis

Electronic particle counting and pipette size-analysis techniques are compared for their relative effectiveness in large-scale routine mud analysis. Optimum laboratory procedures for conducting electronic analyses with a Model TA Coulter Counter are presented. Comparative electronic and pipette analyses conducted on the same samples resulted in equivalent precision for both techniques. Results of electronic analyses consistently showed size distributions significantly coarser than those obtained by pipette analyses. The laboratory efficiency of the relatively rapid electronic technique is far superior to that of the pipette technique, although more extensive precautionary measures are required to maintain a high level of analytical accuracy and precision. The quality of electronic analyses largely depends upon the effectiveness of standardized operational procedures established within the laboratory.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

SlideDetect: Spatio-temporal landslide detection using a three-dimensional convolutional neural network

Landslides pose a serious and ongoing threat to both human lives and infrastructure worldwide; therefore, it is of interest to predict where and when landslides are likely to occur. Advances in machine learning techniques have spurred numerous studies aimed at estimating relative landslide propensity, but are limited to spatial (as opposed to temporal) prediction due to the sparsity of landslide timing data. We address this data gap by training SlideDetect, a 3-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D CNN), to identify landslides based on their spatial and temporal occurrence within multitemporal image stacks. We use an inventory of landsides triggered by the 2018 Hokkaido earthquake and two years of monthly composite optical imagery spanning this event. The model can identify not only landslide location but also landslide date with an area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) of 0.84. We further present a new standard for presenting PR curve results that explicitly compares model performance at different confidence thresholds, allowing for clearer model evaluation and comparison. Our new approach to constraining landslide timing paired with this more consistent and objective method for evaluating model performance shows considerable promise, and with further application and testing, SlideDetect could enhance the data availability and tools needed to advance landslide hazard and risk assessments.

JGR Machine Learning and Computation↗
USGS2026

Moment magnitude for small earthquakes in the Delaware basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico, USA

The Delaware Basin region of west Texas and southeast New Mexico has become one of the most prolific regions of seismic activity in the continental United States due to widespread hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal injection. In response to the increased number of earthquakes in this region, rapid and accurate characterization of earthquake sources is necessary to understand the evolution of seismic activity and level of seismic hazard associated with these earthquakes. This study re-evaluates earthquake magnitudes, estimating moment magnitude (MW) for small earthquakes in the Delaware Basin using 1) moment-rate spectra derived from S-wave coda envelopes, and 2) a relative magnitude method that relies exclusively on the ratio of waveform amplitudes between highly correlated waveform pairs. The coda-envelope method produces accurate M W estimates for small earthquakes ( M 1.5 – 3) that are consistent with independent, waveform modeled moment magnitudes for events with M W > 3 . Using the relative amplitudes method to extend these M W magnitudes to many other events, we successfully provide relative moment magnitude ( M W,rel ) values for 81% of the Texas Seismological Network catalog in the Delaware Basin region, and 45% of the USGS Induced Seismicity Project’s catalog of events in southeast New Mexico. The adoption and integration of the calibrated M W,rel method with current magnitude estimation methods offers valuable insights into the relationships between local and moment magnitude and will contribute to improved characterization of widespread induced seismicity.

New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS2025

Structural setting and geothermal potential of northeastern Reese River Valley, north-central Nevada: Highly prospective detailed study site for the INGENIOUS project

The northeastern part of the Reese River basin situated ~15 km southeast of Battle Mountain, Nevada, scored highly in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) for hosting potential hidden geothermal systems. This site (also referred to as Argenta Rise) was therefore chosen for detailed study in the INGENIOUS project (INnovative Geothermal Exploration through Novel Investigations Of Undiscovered Systems). The high PFA scores resulted primarily from favorable structural settings (e.g., fault intersections and pull aparts) with relatively high slip rates on Quaternary faults. The INGENIOUS project is utilizing additional parameters and more rigorous analytical techniques to further advance exploration at this site. This includes integration of geological (e.g., Quaternary fault mapping) and new geophysical datasets (e.g., gravity, magnetics, MT data, and five reprocessed seismic reflection profiles) to build a structural model and to identify specific favorable sites for potential geothermal upwellings. Two-meter temperature surveys were also conducted in the area (139 measurements). This part of north-central Nevada is characterized by systems of intersecting northerly and ENE-striking faults within the broader Humboldt structural zone, a poorly understood belt of ENE-striking faults and relatively high heat flow extending across northern Nevada. Kinematic analysis of exposed fault surfaces shows that ENE-striking faults have accommodated sinistral-normal slip, and normal slip characterizes N- to NNE-striking faults. Northeastern Reese River Valley lies within a broad left step between major ENE-striking fault zones on the northern flanks of the Argenta Rim and Shoshone Range and thus corresponds to a broad pull-apart in the ENE-striking sinistral-normal fault system. Notably, the nearby Beowawe geothermal system in Whirlwind Valley (with abundant sinter, hot springs, and a geothermal power plant) occupies a fault intersection in a relatively small left step in a major ENE-striking sinistral-normal fault and may serve as an analogue for a potential hidden system in northeastern Reese River Valley. Existing geological maps, high-resolution lidar, and seismic reflection data demonstrate that northeastern Reese River Valley is structurally complex with multiple intersections between the ENE- and N- to NNE-striking fault systems. Some of these fault intersections correspond to low resistivity anomalies, magnetic lows, and/or very subtle 2-m temperature anomalies, which may indicate hidden geothermal upwellings. Three-dimensional modeling and temperature-gradient drilling are planned to further evaluate these sites for geothermal activity.

Nevada↗
USGS2026

Mineral chemistry perspective on remobilization of stored magma at Kamakai'a Hills, Southwest Rift Zone of Kilauea, Island of Hawai'i, USA

Differentiated magmas stored in the rift zones of Kīlauea have received more attention in recent years following eruption of andesite during the early phase of 2018 lower East Rift Zone activity. Despite this growing interest, some of the most voluminous eruptions of differentiated rift zone magmas remain poorly studied. One such eruption, and the most voluminous exposed differentiated flow field at Kīlauea, is the Kamakaiʻa Hills. This eruption took place in the Southwest Rift Zone of Kīlauea, a region that is hypothesized to contain a long-lived rift zone reservoir. The Kamakaiʻa Hills flow field encompasses >250 × 10 6 m 3 of basaltic andesite and basalt compositions with a mineral assemblage of orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene + plagioclase during its early ʻaʻā phase and clinopyroxene + plagioclase + olivine during its late pāhoehoe phase. To better understand storage conditions and magma accumulation, this study focuses on major, minor, and trace elements from the mineral assemblage present within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases. The diversity of clinopyroxene and plagioclase compositions within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases, as well as diverse compositions of plagioclase and orthopyroxene within the early ʻaʻā phase, suggest multiple magma bodies and limited pre-eruption magma mixing within the broader Kamakaiʻa Hills reservoir. Oscillatory zoning patterns (particularly in clinopyroxene) imply processes such as recharge events, magma mixing or mingling, or convection within a differentially cooling, chemically stratified reservoir over protracted time intervals, whereas only limited resorbed mineral textures indicate incomplete mixing of heat and chemically distinct magmas during the dike intrusion that triggered the eruption. Mineral-mineral and mineral-melt thermobarometry indicate predominantly shallow (≤2.5 km depth) crustal storage conditions of the cooled, differentiated magma (∼1100 °C and cooler for the basaltic andesites) to hotter temperatures for the basalts (all >1100 °C). Despite the known large standard errors estimated for mineral-melt and mineral-mineral barometry (10s to >100 MPa), the calculated pressures and depths broadly correspond with earthquake swarm depths beneath the Kamakaiʻa Hills, and drill core and fluid inclusion barometry storage depths of differentiated magmas within the lower East Rift Zone. The Kamakaiʻa Hills differentiated magmas have H 2 O contents (∼0.5 wt%, using plagioclase-melt hygrometry) equivalent to typical Kīlauea basalts. Our data and interpretations demonstrate a complex, long-lived rift zone storage system that consisted of multiple magma bodies and was mobilized into eruption through intrusion of a hotter and more primitive summit-derived (uprift) magma.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Assessment of coastal and fluvial morphodynamic changes using Structure-for-Motion: A case study of the Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta, Romania)

The ability to accurately map erosion, flooding, and habitat loss in coastal environments is crucial for formulating national strategies aimed at preventing and mitigating the impacts of natural disasters. A fundamental component of this process is the implementation of coastal morphodynamics monitoring through Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques, utilizing high-resolution 2D/3D data obtained from aerial photogrammetry. To assess morphodynamic changes over a three-year period (2022 – 2024), several SfM-based photogrammetric studies were conducted, each year, in the Romanian sector of the Danube-Black Sea coastal zone, specifically at the mouth of one of the Danube River distributaries (Sf Gheorghe branch) into the Black Sea, and along the left bank, near Sf Gheorghe locality, located within the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR). The essential equipment for aerial photogrammetry comprises Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In this study, the UAV used was a DJI Mavic 3T (Enterprise/Thermal) drone, complemented by two Trimble R12i and R4 GNSS systems, as well as approximately 10 Ground Control Points (GCPs). Data acquisition and processing were carried out using specialized photogrammetric software (Agisoft Metashape) along with various GIS tools (e.g., Blue Marble Geographics Global Mapper and ESRI ArcMap). The photogrammetric products generated for the study, as detailed in this paper, include Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), orthomosaics (orthophotos), and others. At Sfântu Gheorghe beach, a comparison between 2023 and 2024 photogrammetric surveys revealed that the left bank of the Sf. Gheorghe Arm, at the river mouth into the Black Sea, suffered from a twist (erosion) of up to 64 metres. Additionally, on the selected perimetre (total area of 31,910 square meters ) from the beach and dune zone of Sf. Gheorghe, an area of up to 16,202 square meters was eroded between 2023 and 2024. This contrasts with the period between 2022 and 2023, during which deposition predominated. Erosion at the Danube mouths and the adjacent Black Sea coastline is driven by a complex interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural processes, including subsidence, sea-level rise, and episodic extreme storm events, contribute significantly to coastal dynamics. Meanwhile, human-induced factors, such as upstream hydrotechnical works that limits sediment transport, cutting of navigation canals, as well as the exacerbating effects of climate change, further accelerate erosion. The recent Structure-from-Motion (SfM) surveys provide essential quantitative data, enabling a detailed analysis of both short-term and long-term morphodynamic changes influenced by seasonal variations and extreme hydrometeorological events in this highly dynamic coastal system.

Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta)↗
USGS2026

The U.S. Geological Survey 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands time-independent earthquake rupture forecast

We present the 2025 U.S. Geological Survey Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast (ERF), developed for the 2025 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for PRVI. The updated ERF improves upon a prior model from 2003, including an expanded fault inventory with slip‐rate estimates, updated seismicity catalogs, and refined subduction zone geometries and deformation models. It applies the fault‐system inversion methodology to solve for rates of ruptures on modeled faults, adapted from the 2023 NSHM (NSHM23) for the western United States, including the first application of the inversion to model rates on a U.S. subduction interface. Off‐fault and intraslab seismicity are constrained by observed seismicity and use updated methods developed for NSHM23. Uncertainties in model components are substantial, and the ERF represents epistemic uncertainties through a comprehensive logic tree consisting of 1.7 billion logic‐tree branches combined across all sources.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2026

Fully contained laboratory earthquakes: The effect of asperity aspect ratio and free surfaces

Corner frequency ( f c ) and seismic moment ( M 0 ) are key parameters derived from seismic signals that are used to characterize earthquake stress drop, rupture area, and slip. These parameters are also affected by fault geometry and boundary conditions. However, the systematic study of these effects in laboratory settings has been challenging. This study presents laboratory earthquake experiments that examine how rupture dynamics are influenced by (a) the aspect ratio of rectangular PMMA velocity-weakening (VW) asperities surrounded by the Teflon velocity-strengthening (VS) patches, and (b) whether the sides of a VW asperity are confined with VS patches or are free surfaces. We found that increasing confinement by reducing free surfaces or increasing the VW asperity aspect ratio stabilizes fault slip, so that higher normal stress is required to transition from aseismic to seismic slip. Increased confinement and high aspect ratios also reduced M 0 and increased f c , both of which were determined from the radiated seismic waves. M 0 and f c were primarily controlled by the shorter dimension of the VW asperity. Analysis of high-frequency acoustic emission signals revealed that ruptures on high-aspect-ratio VW asperities propagated more unidirectionally, whereas ruptures on square VW asperities were more complex. Further, the high-aspect-ratio asperities were more likely to be eroded by surrounding VS regions while low-aspect-ratio asperities were more likely to rupture into the VS surroundings. These results demonstrate that both the confinement from surrounding stable areas and the geometry of the seismogenic patch can affect rupture nucleation, propagation, and seismic source characteristics.

JGR Solid Earth↗