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California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Bolinas, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Bolinas map area is located in northern California, on the Pacific Coast of Marin County about 10 kilometers north of the Golden Gate. The town of Bolinas, named after a local indigenous tribe, is the largest population center along this section of coast, with a population of approximately 1,600 people. Bolinas is situated at the end of a southeast-trending terrain on the west side of the San Andreas Fault that also protects a natural harbor. The harbor lies in Bolinas Lagoon, which is separated from Bolinas Bay by a spit. The coastal lands within the Offshore of Bolinas map area lie entirely within the Point Reyes National Seashore, which limits development and allows existing ranching and farming to continue. The Offshore of Bolinas map area lies offshore of the northwest-trending Coast Ranges, which lie east of, and are roughly parallel to, the San Andreas Fault Zone. The western margin of North America is the only continental margin in the world delineated largely by transform faults such as the San Andreas Fault. The coastal geomorphology is controlled by late Pleistocene to Holocene slip along the fault. Bolinas Bay and Lagoon have formed where a regional depression along the fault zone intersects the coast. A northward bend in the San Andreas Fault to the north, combined with right-lateral movement, has caused regional extension and the formation of a sediment basin on the continental shelf in, and southeast of, Bolinas Bay. With the exception of the area adjacent to Bolinas Bay, the coast in the map area consists of high coastal bluffs and vertical sea cliffs. The uplifted headland upon which the town of Bolinas is situated is part of a larger uplifted area that includes exposed bedrock offshore. Uplift in this map area has resulted in relatively shallow depths within California’s State Waters (0 to 40 m) and, thus, little accommodation space for sediment accumulation. Sediment is found in the extensional basin southeast of Bolinas, as well as on the shelf offshore of uplifted coastal areas, where, within California’s State Waters, depths can exceed 40 m. Wave energy keeps the uplifted bedrock areas clear of sediment, and rippled sediment in the outer shelf indicates some mobility. Coastal sediment transport in the Offshore of Bolinas map area is characterized by north-to-south littoral transport of sediment that is derived mainly from ephemeral streams and local coastal erosion. Beyond California’s State Waters, canyons that incise the slope have been disconnected from coastal streams by rising sea level, which has risen about 125 m since the lowstand associated with the Last Glacial Maximum about 18,000 to 20,000 years ago. In the map area, no major submarine canyons extend up past the shelf break and into the nearshore to receive littoral drift. The coastline in the map area is characterized as high risk because of its steep cliffs and large-scale landsliding. The sand spit that separates Bolinas Lagoon from Bolinas Bay is highly developed, and its homes are at risk during storms, especially those from the south. The benthic species observed in the Offshore of Bolinas map area are natives of the cold-temperate biogeographic zone named either the “Oregonian province” or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, an eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from Oregon to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 425 km south of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off central California has seen a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Seafloor habitats in the Offshore of Bolinas map area, which lies within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat, range from, in the nearshore, sandy seafloor in the southeast and significant rocky outcrops that support kelp-forest communities in the northwest to, in deeper water, rocky-reef communities. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of Sooty Shearwater Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock in the northeast supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high wave-energy environments. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of greenling and rockfish.

California↗

Geology of the Alaska-Juneau lode system, Alaska

The Alaska-Juneau lode system for many years was one of the worlds leading gold-producing areas. Total production from the years 1893 to 1946 has amounted to about 94 million dollars, with principal values in contained gold but with some silver and lead values. The principal mine is the Alaska-Juneau mine, from which the lode system takes its name. The lode system is a part of a larger gold-bearing belt, generally referred to as the Juneau gold belt, along the western border of the Coast Range batholith. The rocks of the Alaska-Juneau lode system consist of a monoclinal sequence of steeply northeasterly dipping volcanic, state, and schist rocks, all of which have been metamorphosed by dynamic and thermal processes attendant with the intrusion of the Coast Range batholith. The rocks form a series of belts that trend northwest parallel to the Coast Range. In addition to the Coast Range batholith lying a mile to the east of the lode system, there are numerous smaller intrusives, all of which are sill-like in form and are thus conformable to the regional structure. The bedded rocks are Mesozoic in age; the Coast Range batholith is Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous in age. Some of the smaller intrusives pre-date the batholith, others post-date it. All of the rocks are cut by steeply dipping faults. The Alaska-Juneau lode system is confined exclusively to the footwall portion of the Perseverance slate band. The slate band is composed of black slate and black phyllite with lesser amounts of thin-bedded quartzite. Intrusive into the slate band are many sill-like bodies of rocks generally referred to as meta-gabbro. The gold deposits of the lode system are found both within the slate rocks and the meta-gabbro rocks, and particularly in those places where meta-gabbro bodies interfinger with slate. Thus the ore bodies are found in and near the terminations of meta-gabbro bodies. The ore bodies are quartz stringer-lodes composed of a great number of quartz veins from 6 inches to 3 feet wide and extending along their strike and dip for several tens to hundreds of feet. In addition to quartz, the only other vein gangue mineral is ankerite. It occurs in small amounts along the borders of the quartz veins. Metallic vein minerals, in addition to native gold, are, in order of decreasing abundance, pyrrhotite, galena, sphalerite, and arsenopyrite. In the aggregate the metallic minerals comprise only 1 to 2 percent of the total amount of vein material. The wall rock, particularly the meta-gabbro, was profoundly altered by the vein-forming processes. The principal effects on the meta-gabbro were the addition of large amounts of soda, potash, titanium, carbon dioxide, and phosphorous, and the removal of considerable quantities of iron, magnesia, lime, and combined water. Silica also may have been decreased. The mineralogical changes involved in the alteration were the development of biotite and ankerite at the expense of original hornblende and feldspar, resulting in a brown-colored biotite- and ankerite-rich rock. The slates are relatively unaffected by the vein-forming processes. Because of their small size, relatively low grade, and discontinuity, no attempt has been made to mine any individual vein. The prevailing practice has been to mine large blocks of ground by a system of modified block-caving, followed by hand sorting to remove the barren country rock from the gold-bearing quartz prior to milling.

Open-File Report↗

Texture and depositional history of near-surface alluvial deposits in the central part of the western San Joaquin Valley, California

Saline conditions and associated high levels of selenium and other soluble trace elements in soil, shallow ground water, and agricultural drain water of the western San Joaquin Valley, California, have prompted a study of the texture of near-surface alluvial deposits in the central part of the western valley. Texture is characterized by the percentage of coarse-grained sediment present within a specified subsurface depth interval and is used as a basis for mapping the upper 50 feet of deposits. Resulting quantitative descriptions of the deposits are used to interpret the late Quaternary history of the area. Three hydrogeologic units--Coast Range alluvium, flood-basin deposits, and Sierran sand--can be recognized in the upper 50 feet of deposits in the central part of the western San Joaquin Valley. The upper 30 feet of Coast Range alluvium and the adjacent 5 to 35 feet of flood-basin deposits are predominantly fine grained. These fine-grained Coast Range deposits are underlain by coarse-grained channel deposits. The fine-grained flood basin deposits are underlain by coarse-grained Sierran sand. The extent and orientation of channel deposits below 20 feet in the Coast Range alluvium indicate that streams draining the Coast Range may have been tributary to the axial stream that deposited the Sierran sand and that streamflow may have been to the southeast. The fining-upward stratigraphic sequence in the upper 50 feet of deposits and the headward retreat of tributary stream channels from the valley trough with time support a recent hypothesis of climatic control of alluviation in the western San Joaquin Valley.

California↗

Geologic effects of the March 1964 earthquake and associated seismic sea waves on Kodiak and nearby islands, Alaska

Kodiak Island and the nearby islands constitute a mountainous landmass with an aggregate area of 4,900 square miles that lies at the western border of the Gulf of Alaska and from 20 to 40 miles off the Alaskan mainland. Igneous and metamorphic rocks underlie most of the area except for a narrow belt of moderately to poorly indurated rocks bordering the Gulf of Alaska coast and local accumulations of unconsolidated alluvial and marine deposits along the streams and coast. The area is relatively undeveloped and is sparsely inhabited. About 4,800 of the 5,700 permanent residents in the area live in the city of Kodiak or at the Kodiak Naval Station. The great earthquake, which occurred on March 27, 1964, at 5:36 p.m. Alaska standard time (March 28,1964, 0336 Greenwich mean time), and had a Richter magnitude of 8.4-8.5, was the most severe earthquake felt on Kodiak Island and its nearby islands in modern times. Although the epicenter lies in Prince William Sound 250 miles northeast of Kodiak—the principal city of the area—the areal distribution of the thousands of aftershocks that followed it, the local tectonic deformation, and the estimated source area of the subsequent seismic sea wave, all suggest that the Kodiak group of islands lay immediately adjacent to, and northwest of, the focal region from which the elastic seismic energy was radiated. The duration of strong ground motion in the area was estimated at 2½ minutes. Locally, the tremors were preceded by sounds audible to the human ear and were reportedly accompanied in several places by visible ground waves. Intensity and felt duration of the shocks during the main earthquake and aftershock sequence varied markedly within the area and were strongly influenced by the local geologic environment. Estimated Mercalli intensities in most areas underlain by unconsolidated Quaternary deposits ranged from VIII to as high as IX. In contrast, intensities in areas of upper Tertiary rock ranged from VII to VIII, and in areas of relatively well indurated lower Tertiary and Mesozoic rocks, from VI to VII. Local subsidence of as much as 10 feet was widespread in noncohesive granular deposits through compaction, flow, and sliding that resulted from vibratory loading during the earthquake. This phenomenon, which was largely restricted to saturated beach and alluvial deposits or artificial fill, was locally accompanied by extensive cracking of the ground and attendant ejection of water and water-sediment mixtures. Numerous landslides, including a wide variety of rockfalls, rockslides, and flows along steep slopes, were triggered by the long-duration horizontal and vertical accelerations during the earthquake. The landslides are most numerous in a narrow belt along the southeast coast of Kodiak Island and the nearby offshore islands. Their abundance appears to be related to an area underlain predominantly by Tertiary rocks. Temporary and permanent changes of level occurred after the earthquake in some wells, lakes, and streams throughout the area; ice was cracked, and the salinity of a few wells increased. Permanent change of water level at some localities appears to be related to readjustments of fracture porosity by earthquake-induced movements of bedrock blocks. Increased salinity of wells in coastal areas resulted from encroachment of seawater into aquifiers after subsidence during the earthquake, and to flooding of watersheds by seismic sea waves. Vertical displacements, both downward and upward, occurred throughout the area as a result of crustal warping along a northeast-trending axis. Most of Kodiak and all of Afognak, Shuyak, and adjacent islands are within a regional zone of subsidence whose trough plunges gently northeastward and approximately coincides with the mountainous backbone of Kodiak Island. Subsidence in excess of 6 feet occurred throughout the northern part of the zone-a maximum subsidence of 6½ feet having occurred on Marmot and, eastern Afognak Islands. Southeast of the axis of tectonic tilting, uplift of at least 2lh feet occurred in a narrow zone that includes most of the southeasterly capes of Kodiak Island, the southeastern half of Sitkalidak Island, and Sitkinak Island. The uplift is inferred to extend offshore over much or all of the continental shelf adjacent to the Kodiak group of islands. Within the affected area, tectonic subsidence, which was locally augmented by surficial subsidence of unconsolidated. deposits, caused widespread inundation of shorelines and attendant damage to intertidal organisms, nearshore terrestrial vegetation, and salmon-spawning areas. The most devastating effect of the earthquake on Kodiak Island and nearby islands resulted from seismic sea waves that probably originated along a linear zone of differential uplift in the Gulf of Alaska. A train of at least seven seismic sea waves, having initial periods of 50–55 minutes, struck along all the southeast coast of the island group from 38 to 63 minutes after the earthquake. The southeast shores were repeatedly washed by destructive waves having runup heights along exposed coasts of perhaps as much as 40 feet above existing tide level, and of 8–20 feet along protected shores. Runup heights of the waves were much less on the northwest and southwest sides of the islands, and no wave damage was incurred there. Locally, high-velocity currents that accompanied the waves caused intense erosion and redistribution of unconsolidated natural and artificial shore deposits and of shallow sea-floor deposits. The Alaska earthquake was the greatest natural catastrophe to befall the Kodiak Island area in historic time. The combination of seismic shock and the earthquake-related tectonic deformation and seismic sea waves took 18 lives, destroyed property worth about $45 million, and resulted in estimated losses of income to the fishing industry of an additional $5 million. Most of the damage and all of the loss of life were directly attributable to the seismic sea waves that crippled the city of Kodiak, wiped out the village of Kaguyak, and destroyed most of the village of Old Harbor and parts of the villages of Afognak and Uzinki. Bridges and segments of the highways in the vicinity of the city of Kodiak were washed out, and parts of the Kodiak Naval Station were inundated and damaged. Especially serious to all the damaged communities was the loss of fishing boats, seafood processing plants, and other waterfront installations, which had been the mainstay of the economy. Additional heavy losses resulted from the combined regional tectonic and local surficial subsidence that occurred during the earthquake. Widespread shoreline flooding by high tides necessitated raising, protecting, or removing many installations otherwise undamaged by the earthquake or waves. Structural damage attributable to seismic shock during the earthquake was relatively light and was restricted to areas underlain by saturated unconsolidated deposits. The chief structural failure in the area as a result of shaking was the collapse of part of a cannery built on saturated beach deposits that were partially liquefied during the earthquake. Minor structural damage resulted from differential settlement and cracking of the ground on natural granular deposits and artificial fills. The overwhelming majority of structures are constructed on indurated bedrock; none of these sustained damage other than small losses resulting from shifting about and breakage of their contents.

Alaska↗

Petrographic and chemical reconnaissance study of some granitic and gneissic rocks near the San Andreas fault from Bodega Head to Cajon Pass, California

This petrographic and chemical study is based on reconnaissance sampling of granitic and related gneissic rock in the California Coast and Transverse Ranges. In the Coast Ranges, granitic rocks are restricted to an elongate belt, the Salinian block, between the San Andreas and Sur-Nacimiento fault zones. These rocks have a considerable compositional range, but are dominantly quartz monzonite and granodiorite. Moist of the Salinian block seems to be a structurally coherent basement block of chemically related granitic rocks. However, on both the east and the west sides of the block, gneiss crops out in abundance; these rocks may be structurally separate from the main part of the Salinian block. In the Transverse Ranges, the granitic and related rocks are dominantly of granodiorite composition, and in many areas granitic and gneissic rocks are intimately intermixed. Chemically the rocks of the California Coast and Transverse Ranges are somewhat intermediate in character between those of the east-central part of the Sierra Nevada batholith and those of the western part of the Sierra Nevada batholith and the southern California batholith. Probably the closest similarity is to the east-central Sierra Nevada rocks, but the rocks of the Coast and Transverse Ranges are somewhat higher in Al 2 O 3 and lower in K 2 O than Sierran rocks of the comparable SiO 2 content. Granitic basement rocks of the Salinian block are now anomalously sandwiched between Franciscan terranes. The petrographic and chemical data are compatible with the concept that the Salinian rocks were originally part of the great batholithic belt along the west coast, which is exemplified by the Sierra Nevada hatholith. It also seems most likely that the Salinian block was transported from somewhere south of the Sierra Nevada batholith by large-scale right-lateral movement along the San Andreas fault zone.

California↗

Lidar-revised geologic map of the Uncas 7.5' quadrangle, Clallam and Jefferson Counties, Washington

In 2000 and 2001, the Puget Sound Lidar Consortium obtained 1 pulse/m 2 lidar data for about 65 percent of the Uncas 7.5' quadrangle. For a brief description of LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) and this data acquisition program, see Haugerud and others (2003). This map combines geologic interpretation (mostly by Haugerud and Tabor) of the 6-ft (2-m) lidar-derived digital elevation model (DEM) with the geology depicted on the Preliminary Geologic Map of the Uncas 7.5' Quadrangle, Clallam and Jefferson Counties, Washington, by Peter J. Haeussler and others (1999). The Uncas quadrangle in the northeastern Olympic Peninsula covers the transition from the accreted terranes of the Olympic Mountains on the west to the Tertiary and Quaternary basin fills of the Puget Lowland to the east. Elevations in the map area range from sea level at Port Discovery to 4,116 ft (1,255 m) on the flank of the Olympic Mountains to the southwest. Previous geologic mapping within and marginal to the Uncas quadrangle includes reports by Cady and others (1972), Brown and others (1960), Tabor and Cady (1978a), Yount and Gower (1991), and Yount and others (1993). Paleontologic and stratigraphic investigations by University of Washington graduate students (Allison, 1959; Thoms, 1959; Sherman, 1960; Hamlin, 1962; Spencer, 1984) also encompass parts of the Uncas quadrangle. Haeussler and Wells mapped in February 1998, following preliminary mapping by Yount and Gower in 1976 and 1979. The description of surficial map units follows Yount and others (1993) and Booth and Waldron (2004). Bedrock map units are modified from Yount and Gower (1991) and Spencer (1984). We used the geologic time scale of Gradstein and others (2005). The Uncas quadrangle lies in the forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone, about 6.25 mi (10 km) east of the Cascadia accretionary complex exposed in the core of the Olympic Mountains (Tabor and Cady, 1978b). Underthrusting of the accretionary complex beneath the forearc uplifted and tilted eastward the Coast Range basalt basement and overlying marginal basin strata, which comprise most of the rocks of the Uncas quadrangle. The Eocene submarine and subaerial tholeiitic basalt of the Crescent Formation on the Olympic Peninsula is thought to be the exposed mafic basement of the Coast Range, which was considered by Snavely and others (1968) to be an oceanic terrane accreted to the margin in Eocene time. In this interpretation, the Coast Range basalt terrane may have originated as an oceanic plateau or by oblique marginal rifting, but its subsequent emplacement history was complex (Wells and others, 1984). Babcock and others (1992) and Haeussler and others (2003) favor the interpretation that the basalts were the product of an oceanic spreading center interacting with the continental margin. Regardless of their origin, onlapping strata in southern Oregon indicate that the Coast Range basalts were attached to North America by 50 Ma; but on southern Vancouver Island, where the terrane-bounding Leech River Fault is exposed, Brandon and Vance (1992) concluded that suturing to North America occurred in the broad interval between 42 and 24 Ma. After emplacement of the Coast Range basalt terrane, the Cascadia accretionary wedge developed by frontal accretion and underplating (Tabor and Cady, 1978b; Clowes and others, 1987). Domal uplift of the part of the accretionary complex beneath the Olympic Mountains occurred after ~18 Ma (Brandon and others, 1998). Continental and alpine glaciation during Quaternary time reshaped the uplifted rocks of the Olympic Mountains.

Washington↗

Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette basin, Oregon

The Willamette Basin encompasses a drainage of 12,000 square miles and is home to approximately 70 percent of Oregon's population. Agriculture and population are concentrated in the lowland, a broad, relatively flat area between the Coast and Cascade Ranges. Annual rainfall is high, with about 80 percent of precipitation falling from October through March and less than 5 percent falling in July and August, the peak growing season. Population growth and an increase in cultivation of crops needing irrigation have produced a growing seasonal demand for water. Because many streams are administratively closed to new appropriations in summer, ground water is the most likely source for meeting future water demand. This report describes the current understanding of the regional ground-water flow system, and addresses the effects of ground-water development. This study defines seven regional hydrogeologic units in the Willamette Basin. The highly permeable High Cascade unit consists of young volcanic material found at the surface along the crest of the Cascade Range. Four sedimentary hydrogeologic units fill the lowland between the Cascade and Coast Ranges. Young, highly permeable coarse-grained sediments of the upper sedimentary unit have a limited extent in the floodplains of the major streams and in part of the Portland Basin. Extending over much of the lowland where the upper sedimentary unit does not occur, silts and clays of the Willamette silt unit act as a confining unit. The middle sedimentary unit, consisting of permeable coarse-grained material, occurs beneath the Willamette silt and upper sedimentary units and at the surface as terraces in the lowland. Beneath these units is the lower sedimentary unit, which consists of predominantly fine-grained sediments. In the northern part of the basin, lavas of the Columbia River basalt unit occur at the surface in uplands and beneath the basin-fill sedimentary units. The Columbia River basalt unit contains multiple productive water-bearing zones. A basement confining unit of older marine and volcanic rocks of low permeability underlies the basin and occurs at land surface in the Coast Range and western part of the Cascade Range. Most recharge in the basin is from infiltration of precipitation, and the spatial distribution of recharge mimics the distribution of precipitation, which increases with elevation. Basinwide annual mean recharge is estimated to be 22 inches. Rain and snowmelt easily recharge into the permeable High Cascade unit and discharge within the High Cascade area. Most recharge in the Coast Range and western part of the Cascade Range follows short flowpaths through the upper part of the low permeability material and discharges to streams within the mountains. Consequently, recharge in the Coast and Ranges is not available as lateral ground-water flow into the lowland, where most ground-water use occurs. Within the lowland, annual mean recharge is 16 inches and most recharge occurs from November to April, when rainfall is large and evapotranspiration is small. From May to October recharge is negligible because precipitation is small and evapotranspiration is large. Discharge of ground water is mainly to streams. Ground-water discharge is a relatively large component of flow in streams that drain the High Cascade unit and parts of the Portland Basin where permeable units are at the surface. In streams that do not head in the High Cascade area, streamflow is generally dominated by runoff of precipitation. Ground-water in the permeable units in the lowland discharges to the major streams where there is a good hydraulic connection between aquifers and streams. Ground-water discharge to smaller streams, which flow on the less permeable Willamette silt unit, is small and mostly from the Willamette silt unit. Most ground-water withdrawals occur within the lowland. Irrigation is the largest use of ground water, accounting for 240,000 acre feet of withdrawals, or 81 p

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), 2016

Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris , the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century. A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four exceptions are scenarios in which the rate of watercraft-related mortality increases, carrying capacity is only a fraction of the current estimates, a new chronic source of mortality emerges, or multiple threats emerge in concert. Even in these scenarios, however, the risk of falling below 500 adults on either the East coast or the Gulf coast within 100 years from 2011 is less than 10 percent. High adult survival provides the population with strong resilience to a variety of current and future threats. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that if these threats continue to be managed effectively, manatees are likely to persist on both coasts of Florida and remain an integral part of the coastal Florida ecosystem through the 21st century. If vigilance in management is reduced, however, the scenarios in which manatees could face risk of decline become more likely.

Florida↗

Hydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Aguadilla to Rio Camuy area, Puerto Rico

The aquifers of the Aguadilla to Rio Camuy area, in the northwestern part of Puerto Rico, are the least developed of those on the north coast, and relatively little information is available concerning the ground-water system. The present study, which was part of a comprehensive appraisal of the ground-water resources of the North Coast Province, attempts to interpret the hydrology of the area within the constraints of available data. The study area consists of an uplifted rolling plain that is 200 to 400 feet above sea level and a heavily forested, karst upland. The only major streams in the area are the Rfo Camuy and the Rio Guajataca. Most water used in the area is obtained from Lago de Guajataca, just south of the study area, and ground-water use is minimal (less than 5 million gallons per day). Sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age, mainly limestone and calcareous clays, comprise the aquifers of the Aguadilla to Rio Camuy area. The rocks generally dip from 4 to 7 degrees to the north, and the total sedimentary rock sequence may be as much as 6,000 feet thick near the Atlantic coast. Baseflows for the Rio Camuy are 58 cubic feet per second near Bayaney and 72 cubic feet per second near Hatillo. The ground-water discharge to the Rio Camuy between these stations is estimated to be 15 cubic feet per second, or 2.6 cubic feet per second per linear mile. The flow of the Rio Guajataca is regulated by the Guajataca Dam at Lago de Guajataca. Ground-water discharge to the Rio Guajataca between the dam and the coast is estimated to be about 17 cubic feet per.second, based on the average ground-water discharge per linear mile estimated for the Rio Camuy. Both water-table and artesian aquifers are present in the Aguadilla to Rio Camuy area; how-ever, most ground water occurs within the watertable aquifer, which was the primary focus of this study. The top of the confining unit, below the water-table aquifer, generally is within the unnamed upper member of the Cibao Formation; however, it is within the Los Puertos Formation in the eastern part of the study area. The water-table aquifer primarily is composed of rocks of the Aymam6n Limestone and the Los Puertos Formation. The estimated saturated thickness of the water-table aquifer ranges from zero at the southern limit of the aquifer to more than 600 feet south of Isabela. Hydraulic conductivity of the Aymam6n Limestone, based on specific-capacity test data for seven wells, ranges from about 1 to about 25 feet per day and averages 7.5 feet per day. Hydraulic conductivity of the Los Puertos Formation, based on specific-capacity test data for four wells, generally was less than 7 feet. per day. The average hydraulic-conductivity value for both the Aymam6n Limestone and the Los Puertos Formation, based on specific-capacity test data, is estimated to be about 6.0 feet per day. These hydraulic-conductivity values are much less than average values for the water-table aquifer reported for other parts of the North Coast Province. Transmissivity values, based on the average hydraulic-conductivity value for the aquifer derived from specific-capacity tests, range from zero to about 4,000 feet squared per day; however, these values were adjusted upward during model calibration. Ground water generally moves from the highlands in the south toward the sea to the north and west, and locally, to streams. A major groundwater divide extends from the southeastern corner of the study area to the northwest, and separates flow north and east into the study area from flow to the southwest toward the Rio Culebrinas. Nearly all recharge to the aquifer is from infiltration of rainfall into the karst uplands. Discharge from the aquifer primarily occurs as leakage to streams and to the sea, and to a lesser degree as flow to wells. A two-layer, three-dimensional, steady-state, numerical model was constructed to simulateground-water flow in the water-table aquifer between Aguadilla and the R/o Camuy area. A basic a

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century

Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and piloting of an innovative model that can simulate the climate-change driven evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts at 50-100 year time scales, while taking into account the contributions from catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic manner. In this new model, the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is determined by: (1) computing the variation of total sediment volume exchange between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volume along the inlet-interrupted coast as a spatially and temporally varying quantity. The exchange volume, as computed here, consists of three major components: variation in fluvial sediment supply; basin (or estuarine) infilling due to the sea-level rise-induced increase in accommodation space; and estuarine sediment volume change due to variations in river discharge. To pilot the model, it is here applied to three different catchment-estuary-coastal systems: the Alsea estuary (Oregon, USA), Dyfi estuary (Wales, UK), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Results indicate that all three systems will experience sediment deficits by 2100 (i.e. sediment importing estuaries). However, processes and system characteristics governing the total sediment exchange volume, and thus coastline change, vary markedly among the systems due to differences in geomorphic settings and projected climatic conditions. These results underline the importance of accounting for the different governing processes when assessing the future evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

Integrating high-resolution coastal acidification monitoring data across seven United States estuaries

Beginning in 2015, the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) National Estuary Program (NEP) started a collaboration with partners in seven estuaries along the East Coast (Barnegat Bay; Casco Bay), West Coast (Santa Monica Bay; San Francisco Bay; Tillamook Bay), and the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Coast (Tampa Bay; Mission-Aransas Estuary) of the United States to expand the use of autonomous monitoring of partial pressure of carbon dioxide ( p CO 2 ) and pH. Analysis of high-frequency (hourly to sub-hourly) coastal acidification data including p CO 2 , pH, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen (DO) indicate that the sensors effectively captured key parameter measurements under challenging environmental conditions, allowing for an initial characterization of daily to seasonal trends in carbonate chemistry across a range of estuarine settings. Multi-year monitoring showed that across all water bodies temperature and p CO 2 covaried, suggesting that p CO 2 variability was governed, in part, by seasonal temperature changes with average p CO 2 being lower in cooler, winter months and higher in warmer, summer months. Furthermore, the timing of seasonal shifts towards increasing (or decreasing) p CO 2 varied by location and appears to be related to regional climate conditions. Specifically, p CO 2 increases began earlier in the year in warmer water, lower latitude water bodies in the GOM (Tampa Bay; Mission-Aransas Estuary) as compared with cooler water, higher latitude water bodies in the northeast (Barnegat Bay; Casco Bay), and upwelling-influenced West Coast water bodies (Tillamook Bay; Santa Monica Bay; San Francisco Bay). Results suggest that both thermal and non-thermal influences are important drivers of p CO 2 in Tampa Bay and Mission-Aransas Estuary. Conversely, non-thermal processes, most notably the biogeochemical structure of coastal upwelling, appear to be largely responsible for the observed p CO 2 values in West Coast water bodies. The co-occurrence of high salinity, high p CO 2 , low DO, and low temperature water in Santa Monica Bay and San Francisco Bay characterize the coastal upwelling paradigm that is also evident in Tillamook Bay when upwelling dominates freshwater runoff and local processes. These data demonstrate that high-quality carbonate chemistry observations can be recorded from estuarine environments using autonomous sensors originally designed for open-ocean settings.

California, Florida, Maine, New Jersey, Oregon, Te↗

The impact of invasive plants on tidal-marsh vertebrate species: common reed (Phragmites australis) and smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) as case studies

Large areas of tidal marsh in the contiguous US and the Maritime Provinces of Canada are threatened by invasive plant species. Our understanding of the impact these invasions have on tidal-marsh vertebrates is sparse. In this paper, we focus on two successful invasive plant taxa that have spread outside their native range --common reed (Phragmites australis) and smooth cordgrass (Spartina a/terniflora). A cryptic haplotype of common reed has expanded its range in Atlantic Coast tidal marshes and smooth cordgrass, a native dominant plant of Atlantic Coast low-marsh habitat, has expanded its range and invaded intertidal-marsh habitats of the Pacific Coast. The invasions of common reed in Atlantic Coast tidal marshes and smooth cordgrass in Pacific Coast tidal marshes appear to have similar impacts. The structure and composition of these habitats has been altered and invasion and dominance by these two taxa can lead to profound changes in geomorphological processes, altering the vertical relief and potentially affecting invertebrate communities and the entire trophic structure of these systems. Few studies have documented impacts of invasive plant taxa on tidal-marsh vertebrate species in North America. However, habitat specialists that are already considered threatened or endangered are most likely to be affected. Extensive experimental studies are needed to examine the direct impact of invasive plant species on native vertebrate species. Careful monitoring of sites during the initial stages of plant invasion and tracking ecosystem changes through time are essential. Since tidal marshes are the foci for invasion by numerous species, we also need to understand the indirect impacts of invasion of these habitats on the vertebrate community. We also suggest the initiation of studies to determine if vertebrate species can compensate behaviorally for alterations in their habitat caused by invasive plant species, as well as the potential for adaptation via rapid evolution. Finally, we urge natural-resource managers to consider the impact various invasive plant control strategies will have on native vertebrate communities.

Book chapter↗

Estimation of nutrient sources and transport for New Zealand using the hybrid mechanistic-statistical model SPARROW

The hybrid mechanistic-statistical catchment model SPARROW was applied to predict the mean annual load of nitrogen and phosphorus in streams throughout New Zealand (270,000 km2). The loads from land areas, point sources, and erosion are routed through the drainage network (576,300 reaches) with first-order stream decay and attenuation in lakes and reservoirs. Model parameters were determined by calibration against loads measured in the national water quality network (77 sites). For nitrogen, the model predicted the measured loads well (R2 of 0.956 and RMSE of 0.33 in natural-log space), while for phosphorus the model fit was not as good (R2 of 0.900 and RMSE of 0.58). The predictions of exported yields for streams with catchments > 20 km2 are broadly comparable with previous compilations of yields for various land-use classes for nitrogen, but are larger than the previous measurements for phosphorus. The calibrated stream attenuation and lake/reservoir rates were broadly consistent with previous measurements. The predicted load of total nitrogen (TN) delivered to the coast was 167,700 t yr-1, which is 45% of the loads entering the streams. For total phosphorus (TP) the predicted load to the coast was 63,100 t yr-1, 44% of the load entering the streams. Reservoir/lake attenuation makes a relatively small contribution to the overall attenuation compared with in-stream attenuation (3.5% for nitrogen and 8.5% for phosphorus). The largest contribution of total nitrogen is from pastoral land uses, together accounting for 70% of the total nitrogen load to the coast. Land used for dairying makes a disproportionately large contribution to the load of total nitrogen in relation to the area of land (37% of the load versus 6.8% of the land). For total phosphorus, the highest contribution of the load to the coast is from erosion (53.2%). Point sources contribute only a small proportion of the load to the coast (3.2% for nitrogen, 1.8% for total phosphorus). The monitoring network does not include streams with catchments smaller than 10 km2, so model predictions for streams smaller than 10 km2 should be used with caution. ?? New Zealand Hydrological Society (2005).

Journal of Hydrology New Zealand↗

Surface water discharge and salinity monitoring of coastal estuaries in Everglades National Park, USA, in support of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

Discharge and salinity were measured along the southwest and the southeast coast of Florida in Everglades National Park (ENP) within several rivers and creeks from 1996 through 2008. Data were collected using hydro-acoustic instruments and continuous water-quality monitors at fixed monitoring stations. Water flowed through ENP within two distinct drainage basins; specifically, Shark Slough and Taylor Slough. Discharge to the southwest coast through Shark Slough was substantially larger than discharge to the southeast coast through Taylor Slough. Correlation analysis between coastal flows and regulated flows at water-management structures upstream from ENP suggests rainfall has a larger impact on discharge through Shark Slough than releases from the S-12 water management structures. In contrast, flow releases from water management structures upstream from Taylor Slough appear to be more closely related to discharge along the southeast coast. Salinity varied within a wide range (0 to 50 parts per thousand) along both coastlines. Periods of hypersalinity were greater along the southeast coast due to shallow compartmentalized basins within Florida Bay, which restrict circulation.

Florida↗

Quantifying hurricane-induced coastal changes using topographic lidar

USGS and NASA are investigating the impacts of hurricanes on the United States East and Gulf of Mexico coasts with the ultimate objective of improving predictive capabilities. The cornerstone of our effort is to use topographic lidar to acquire pre- and post-storm topography to quantify changes to beaches and dunes. With its rapidity of acquisition and very high density, lidar is revolutionizing the. quantification of storm-induced coastal change. Lidar surveys have been acquired for the East and Gulf coasts to serve as pre-storm baselines. Within a few days of a hurricane landfall anywhere within the study area, the impacted area will be resurveyed to detect changes. For example, during 1999, Hurricane Dennis impacted the northern North Carolina coast. Along a 70-km length of coast between Cape Hatteras and Oregon Inlet, there was large variability in the types of impacts including overwash, dune erosion, dune stability, and even accretion at the base of dunes. These types of impacts were arranged in coherent patterns that repeated along the coast over scales of tens of kilometers. Preliminary results suggest the variability is related to the influence of offshore shoals that induce longshore gradients in wave energy by wave refraction.

Conference Paper↗

Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

Conference Paper↗

Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate

Predictive climate distributions of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are estimated from observational records over the period 1851–2000. The approach is Bayesian, combining the reliable records of hurricane activity during the twentieth century with the less precise accounts of activity during the nineteenth century to produce a best estimate of the posterior distribution on the annual rates. The methodology provides a predictive distribution of future activity that serves as a climatological benchmark. Results are presented for the entire coast as well as for the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the East Coast. Statistics on the observed annual counts of U.S. hurricanes, both for the entire coast and by region, are similar within each of the three consecutive 50-yr periods beginning in 1851. However, evidence indicates that the records during the nineteenth century are less precise. Bayesian theory provides a rational approach for defining hurricane climate that uses all available information and that makes no assumption about whether the 150-yr record of hurricanes has been adequately or uniformly monitored. The analysis shows that the number of major hurricanes expected to reach the U.S. coast over the next 30 yr is 18 and the number of hurricanes expected to hit Florida is 20.

Journal of Climate↗

Sequoia and Sequoiadendron: Two paleoendemic megatrees with markedly different adaptive responses to recent high-severity fires

Premise Coast redwood ( Sequoia sempervirens ) and giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) are two iconic paleoendemic species with limited distributions, well known for their spectacular size. Recently, they have been exposed to high-severity crown fires, with starkly contrasting responses. Methods We used all available published literature and field observations to understand the responses to fire in an evolutionary context. Results Coast redwoods, found in California's coastal rainforests, were highly resilient to high-severity fires, with most trees surviving due to their ability to resprout from the base and trunk, though seedling regeneration was largely lacking. In contrast, giant sequoias, native to the Sierra Nevada, do not resprout, leading to significant tree mortality after very high-severity fires; they released seeds only in patches where some trees survived moderately high-severity fires. Conclusions These high-severity fires were novel events for giant sequoias, but not for coast redwoods. Fire suppression has disrupted the natural fire regime in the giant sequoia ecosystem by preventing frequent lightning-caused surface fires, resulting in high-severity fires that killed a substantial number of these giants. In coast redwood forests, infrequent but high-severity crown fires were the norm before burning by Native Americans. Frequent, low-severity burning by Native Americans over the past few hundred years was localized and 20 th -century fire suppression has returned the natural fire regime to these forests. The recent crown fires do not represent a threat to redwood conservation; however, other management goals may require emulating Native American burning practices and in some cases may be best termed cultural restoration.

American Journal of Botany↗