Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Challenge”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,189 records · Page 66Linked to original sources
USGS2025

From subsidies to stressors: Shifting ecological baselines alter biological responses to nutrients in highly modified agricultural streams

Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region-wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient-tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP-specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP-specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA-based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

Mississippi↗
USGS2026

Integrating climate and anthropogenic dynamics can inform multifaceted management for declining mule deer populations

Wildlife and their habitats face profound challenges from climate and landscape-scale changes that extend beyond the influence and time horizon of most biologists and land managers. In this changing environment, long-term datasets can enhance assessments of how demographic trends respond to interactions among local (e.g., habitat restoration decisions) and broad extent drivers, including energy development, to shape wildlife populations. Although many studies evaluate habitat selection or demographics for a single population, our multipopulation, multiscale study quantifies the influence of local management actions given broader environmental forces using both immediate and lagged effects. This approach may be particularly important for species with high site fidelity that may have less adaptive capacity, including mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), which are experiencing widespread population declines. We analyzed a 40-year (1980–2019) dataset for 37 mule deer populations across Wyoming, USA, to test hypotheses about and quantify the relative influence of conditions within winter use areas on annual rates of juvenile recruitment. Recruitment has been strongly affected by multiple factors largely beyond the control of managers. Land cover (agriculture and shrubland) had the largest positive effects on recruitment, with estimates more than twice the magnitude of other variables, but also had limited presence in some winter use areas. The next strongest effect sizes were shared by energy developments (including oil/gas and wind energy) and climatic conditions, which, except for wind turbines, had broad distributions across winter use areas. Recruitment increased with higher mean winter temperatures and summer precipitation, but declined with wind, oil and gas developments, cumulative drought, and wildfire. Expected increases in drought and decreases in summer precipitation may constrain options to sustain mule deer populations. Although mule deer recruitment may sometimes be enhanced through habitat restoration, effects varied with treatment type, habitat type, and time since treatment. Given large constraining effects of temperature and drought, supporting drought resiliency for important habitat may be useful. Our results can be used to weigh the relative strength of threats and the value of restoration actions, interpret historic demographic change, prioritize populations for conservation, and optimize options for wildlife habitat management.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

A model for regional-scale oak savanna management: The roles of fire, canopy, and soils for understory plant diversity

Predicting the outcomes of land management on biodiversity is difficult without a mechanistic understanding of how management approaches, ecosystem structure, environmental conditions, and biodiversity interact. Management effects may be direct or indirect, context- or scale-dependent, or obscured by local environmental conditions. Resolving these relationships at the regional scale may be difficult, given heterogeneity in local environmental conditions, yet understanding broad-scale patterns can elucidate context dependencies and improve restoration outcomes. We confronted these challenges within globally rare oak savannas in the midwestern United States, which have been altered by fire exclusion and resulting woody encroachment. By modeling direct and indirect pathways by which management influences diversity, we test a general framework for savanna restoration. Across 100 oak savannas spanning five US states, management by prescribed fire and mechanical thinning of woody vegetation affected groundlayer plant species richness through changes to ecosystem structure (canopy openness and litter depth), and these effects were both context- and scale-dependent. Frequent prescribed fires and canopy thinning promoted greater canopy openness, which in turn increased richness at small (1 m 2 ), but not larger (1000 m 2 ) scales. Frequent fire additionally increased richness at small and larger scales through effects independent of ecosystem structure. While management effects were large relative to the influence of local edaphic conditions, soil productivity had two largely offsetting effects on small-scale richness, increasing richness directly but decreasing richness indirectly by promoting closed canopy structure. These results suggest using a combination of fire and canopy thinning to reverse the effects of decades of fire exclusion. However, management effects were also context-dependent, emphasizing that management outcomes vary regionally. Here, 1-m 2 plant species richness increased with both fire frequency and canopy thinning under low, but not high, productivity soil conditions. By demonstrating how specific management practices influence savanna structure and biodiversity by manipulating ecological processes across broad geographic and edaphic gradients, our findings provide a framework for understanding management outcomes at short and medium intervals (e.g., within and between decades, respectively), in the form of a model that can be refined by testing additional hypotheses to better predict savanna restoration outcomes.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin↗
USGS2023

Effects of population density and environmental conditions on life-history prevalence in a migratory fish

Individual variation in life-history traits can have important implications for the ability of populations to respond to environmental variability and change. In migratory animals, flexibility in the timing of life-history events, such as juvenile emigration from natal areas, can influence the effects of population density and environmental conditions on habitat use and population dynamics. We evaluated the functional relationships between population density and environmental covariates and the abundance of juveniles expressing different life-history pathways in a migratory fish, Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), in the Wenatchee River basin in Washington State, USA. We found that the abundance of younger emigrants from natal streams was best described by an accelerating or near-linear function of spawners, whereas the abundance of older emigrants was best described by a decelerating function of spawners. This supports the hypothesis that emigration timing varies in response to density in natal areas, with younger-emigrating life-history pathways comprising a larger proportion of emigrants when densities of conspecifics are high. We also observed positive relationships between winter stream discharge and abundance of younger emigrants, supporting the hypothesis that habitat conditions can also influence the prevalence of different life-history pathways. Our results suggest that early emigration, and a resultant increase in the use of downstream rearing habitats, may increase at higher population densities and with greater winter precipitation. Winter precipitation is projected to increase in this system due to climate warming. Characterizing relationships between life-history prevalence and environmental conditions may improve our understanding of species habitat requirements and is a first step in understanding the dynamics of species with diverse life-history strategies. As environmental conditions change—due to climate change, management, or other factors—resultant life-history changes are likely to have important demographic implications that will be challenging to predict when life-history diversity is not accounted for in population models.

Washington↗
USGS2023

Confirmation of significant sea turtle nesting activity on a remote island chain in the Gulf of Mexico

Globally, six of the seven sea turtle species are threatened or endangered and as such, monitoring reproductive activity for these species is necessary for effective population recovery. Remote beaches provide a challenge to conducting these surveys, which often results in data gaps that can hamper management planning. Throughout the summer of 2022, aerial surveys were conducted over the Chandeleur Islands in the Gulf of Mexico. Turtle crawls were photographed for subsequent review by 10 expert observers. Whenever possible, ground surveys were conducted, and samples of unhatched eggs or dead hatchlings were collected. A summary of historic reports of sea turtle nesting activity at this site was also compiled. On 11 days between May 4, 2022, and July 30, 2022, photographs of 55 potential sea turtle crawls were taken. Observers identified 54 of those as being made by a sea turtle. There was high-to-moderate certainty that 16 of those crawls were nests, that 14 were made by loggerheads, and that two were made by Kemp's ridleys. Observers were least certain of species identification when surveys were conducted during rainy weather. Genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA were conducted on samples from five nests and those analyses confirmed that three nests were laid by Kemp's ridleys and two were laid by loggerheads. Historic records from the Chandeleur Islands substantiate claims that the Chandeleurs have supported sea turtle nesting activity for decades; however, the consistency of this activity remains unknown. Our aerial surveys, particularly when coupled with imaging, were a useful tool for documenting nesting activity on these remote islands. Future monitoring programs at this site could benefit from a standardized aerial survey program with a seaplane so trends in nesting activity could be determined particularly as the beach undergoes restoration.

Louisiana↗
USGS2023

Saproxylic beetles' morphological traits and higher trophic guilds indicate boreal forest naturalness

Forests contribute to numerous ecosystem functions and services and contain a large proportion of terrestrial biodiversity, but they are being negatively impaced by anthropogenic activities. Forests that have never been clear-cut and have old growth characteristics, termed “near-natural,” often harbor different and richer species assemblages than managed forests. Alternative management strategies may be able to balance the needs of biodiversity with the demands of forestry, but evaluation efforts are limited by the challenges of measuring biodiversity. Species richness is frequently used as a simple measure of biodiversity, but research indicates that it may not adequately capture community-level changes. Alternatively, trait-based measures of biodiversity may prove to be useful, but research is lacking. In this paper, we use a large dataset that includes 339 obligate saproxylic beetle species collected over a decade in the boreal region throughout southern Norway to: (1) establish if there is a difference in beetle community composition between near-natural and managed forests; and (2) determine which measures of beetle biodiversity best indicate forest naturalness. We arranged the sites in an ordination space and tested for differences in community composition between these forest types. We also tested different measures of biodiversity to determine which were the most predictive of forest naturalness. We found a clear difference in community composition between near-natural and managed forests. Additionally, three measures of biodiversity were most predictive of forest naturalness: proportional abundance of predators, community weighted mean (CWM) of wing length, and CWM of body roundness. The probability that a forest was near-natural increased with the proportional abundance of predators but decreased with CWM wing length and body roundness. Although species richness was higher in near-natural forests, the effect was not significant. Overall, our findings underscore the conservation value of near-natural forests and highlight the potential of several measures of biodiversity for determining forest quality.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Sex-specific recruitment rates contribute to male-biased sex ratio in Adélie penguins

Sex-related differences in vital rates that drive population change reflect the basic life history of a species. However, for visually monomorphic bird species, determining the effect of sex on demographics can be a challenge. In this study, we investigated the effect of sex on apparent survival, recruitment, and breeding propensity in the Adélie penguin ( Pygoscelis adeliae ), a monochromatic, slightly size dimorphic species with known age, known sex, and known breeding history data collected during 1996–2019 ( n = 2127 birds) from three breeding colonies on Ross Island, Antarctica. Using a multistate capture–mark–recapture maximum-likelihood model, we estimated apparent survival (

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Treed Gaussian processes for animal movement modeling

Wildlife telemetry data may be used to answer a diverse range of questions relevant to wildlife ecology and management. One challenge to modeling telemetry data is that animal movement often varies greatly in pattern over time, and current continuous-time modeling approaches to handle such nonstationarity require bespoke and often complex models that may pose barriers to practitioner implementation. We demonstrate a novel application of treed Gaussian process (TGP) modeling, a Bayesian machine learning approach that automatically captures the nonstationarity and abrupt transitions present in animal movement. The machine learning formulation of TGPs enables modeling to be nearly automated, while their Bayesian formulation allows for the derivation of movement descriptors with associated uncertainty measures. We demonstrate the use of an existing R package to implement TGPs using the familiar Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We then use estimated movement trajectories to derive movement descriptors that can be compared across individuals and populations. We applied the TGP model to a case study of lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) to demonstrate the benefits of TGP modeling and compared distance traveled and residence times across lesser prairie-chicken individuals and populations. For broad usability, we outline all steps necessary for practitioners to specify relevant movement descriptors (e.g., turn angles, speed, contact points) and apply TGP modeling and trajectory comparison to their own telemetry datasets. Combining the predictive power of machine learning and the statistical inference of Bayesian methods to model movement trajectories allows for the estimation of statistically comparable movement descriptors from telemetry studies. Our use of an accessible R package allows practitioners to model trajectories and estimate movement descriptors, facilitating the use of telemetry data to answer applied management questions.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2015

Persistence at distributional edges: Columbia spotted frog habitat in the arid Great Basin, USA

A common challenge in the conservation of broadly distributed, yet imperiled species is understanding which factors facilitate persistence at distributional edges, locations where populations are often vulnerable to extirpation due to changes in climate, land use, or distributions of other species. For Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) in the Great Basin (USA), a genetically distinct population segment of conservation concern, we approached this problem by examining (1) landscape-scale habitat availability and distribution, (2) water body-scale habitat associations, and (3) resource management-identified threats to persistence. We found that areas with perennial aquatic habitat and suitable climate are extremely limited in the southern portion of the species’ range. Within these suitable areas, native and non-native predators (trout and American bullfrogs [Lithobates catesbeianus]) are widespread and may further limit habitat availability in upper- and lower-elevation areas, respectively. At the water body scale, spotted frog occupancy was associated with deeper sites containing abundant emergent vegetation and nontrout fish species. Streams with American beaver (Castor canadensis) frequently had these structural characteristics and were significantly more likely to be occupied than ponds, lakes, streams without beaver, or streams with inactive beaver ponds, highlighting the importance of active manipulation of stream environments by beaver. Native and non-native trout reduced the likelihood of spotted frog occupancy, especially where emergent vegetation cover was sparse. Intensive livestock grazing, low aquatic connectivity, and ephemeral hydroperiods were also negatively associated with spotted frog occupancy. We conclude that persistence of this species at the arid end of its range has been largely facilitated by habitat stability (i.e., permanent hydroperiod), connectivity, predator-free refugia, and a commensalistic interaction with an ecosystem engineer. Beaver-induced changes to habitat quality, stability, and connectivity may increase spotted frog population resistance and resilience to seasonal drought, grazing, non-native predators, and climate change, factors which threaten local or regional persistence.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2016

Disentangling vegetation diversity from climate–energy and habitat heterogeneity for explaining animal geographic patterns

Broad-scale animal diversity patterns have been traditionally explained by hypotheses focused on climate–energy and habitat heterogeneity, without considering the direct influence of vegetation structure and composition. However, integrating these factors when considering plant–animal correlates still poses a major challenge because plant communities are controlled by abiotic factors that may, at the same time, influence animal distributions. By testing whether the number and variation of plant community types in Europe explain country-level diversity in six animal groups, we propose a conceptual framework in which vegetation diversity represents a bridge between abiotic factors and animal diversity. We show that vegetation diversity explains variation in animal richness not accounted for by altitudinal range or potential evapotranspiration, being the best predictor for butterflies, beetles, and amphibians. Moreover, the dissimilarity of plant community types explains the highest proportion of variation in animal assemblages across the studied regions, an effect that outperforms the effect of climate and their shared contribution with pure spatial variation. Our results at the country level suggest that vegetation diversity, as estimated from broad-scale classifications of plant communities, may contribute to our understanding of animal richness and may be disentangled, at least to a degree, from climate–energy and abiotic habitat heterogeneity.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Simultaneous estimation of diet composition and calibration coefficients with fatty acid signature data

Knowledge of animal diets provides essential insights into their life history and ecology, although diet estimation is challenging and remains an active area of research. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) has become a popular method of estimating diet composition, especially for marine species. A primary assumption of QFASA is that constants called calibration coefficients, which account for the differential metabolism of individual fatty acids, are known. In practice, however, calibration coefficients are not known, but rather have been estimated in feeding trials with captive animals of a limited number of model species. The impossibility of verifying the accuracy of feeding trial derived calibration coefficients to estimate the diets of wild animals is a foundational problem with QFASA that has generated considerable criticism. We present a new model that allows simultaneous estimation of diet composition and calibration coefficients based only on fatty acid signature samples from wild predators and potential prey. Our model performed almost flawlessly in four tests with constructed examples, estimating both diet proportions and calibration coefficients with essentially no error. We also applied the model to data from Chukchi Sea polar bears, obtaining diet estimates that were more diverse than estimates conditioned on feeding trial calibration coefficients. Our model avoids bias in diet estimates caused by conditioning on inaccurate calibration coefficients, invalidates the primary criticism of QFASA, eliminates the need to conduct feeding trials solely for diet estimation, and consequently expands the utility of fatty acid data to investigate aspects of ecology linked to animal diets.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Restricted gene flow between resident Oncorhynchus mykiss and an admixed population of anadromous steelhead

The species Oncorhynchus mykiss is characterized by a complex life history that presents a significant challenge for population monitoring and conservation management. Many factors contribute to genetic variation in O. mykiss populations, including sympatry among migratory phenotypes, habitat heterogeneity, hatchery introgression, and immigration (stray) rates. The relative influences of these and other factors are contingent on characteristics of the local environment. The Rock Creek subbasin in the middle Columbia River has no history of hatchery supplementation and no dams or artificial barriers. Limited intervention and minimal management have led to a dearth of information regarding the genetic distinctiveness of the extant O. mykiss population in Rock Creek and its tributaries. We used 192 SNP markers and collections sampled over a 5‐year period to evaluate the temporal and spatial genetic structures of O. mykiss between upper and lower watersheds of the Rock Creek subbasin. We investigated potential limits to gene flow within the lower watershed where the stream is fragmented by seasonally dry stretches of streambed, and between upper and lower watershed regions. We found minor genetic differentiation within the lower watershed occupied by anadromous steelhead ( F ST = 0.004), and evidence that immigrant influences were prevalent and ubiquitous. Populations in the upper watershed above partial natural barriers were highly distinct ( F ST = 0.093) and minimally impacted by apparent introgression. Genetic structure between watersheds paralleled differences in local demographics (e.g., variation in size), migratory restrictions, and habitat discontinuity. The evidence of restricted gene flow between putative remnant resident populations in the upper watershed and the admixed anadromous population in the lower watershed has implications for local steelhead productivity and regional conservation.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements

In light of global climate change, ecological studies increasingly address effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. Sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but our review of 18 years of ecological literature indicates that shielding practices vary across studies (when reported at all), and that ecologists often invent and construct ad hoc radiation shields without testing their efficacy. We performed two field experiments to examine the accuracy of temperature observations from three commonly used portable data loggers (HOBO Pro, HOBO Pendant, and iButton hygrochron) housed in manufactured Gill shields or ad hoc, custom‐fabricated shields constructed from everyday materials such as plastic cups. We installed this sensor array (five replicates of 11 sensor‐shield combinations) at weather stations located in open and forested sites. HOBO Pro sensors with Gill shields were the most accurate devices, with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C relative to weather stations at each site. Error in ad hoc shield treatments ranged from 0.8 to 3.0°C, with the largest errors at the open site. We then deployed one replicate of each sensor‐shield combination at five sites that varied in the amount of urban impervious surface cover, which presents a further shielding challenge. Bias in sensors paired with ad hoc shields increased by up to 0.7°C for every 10% increase in impervious surface. Our results indicate that, due to variable shielding practices, the ecological literature likely includes highly biased temperature data that cannot be compared directly across studies. If left unaddressed, these errors will hinder efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. We call for greater standardization in how temperature data are recorded in the field, handled in analyses, and reported in publications.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Temporal constraints on the potential role of fry odors as cues of past reproductive success for spawning lake trout

Deciding where to reproduce is a major challenge for most animals. Many select habitats based upon cues of successful reproduction by conspecifics, such as the presence of offspring from past reproductive events. For example, some fishes select spawning habitat following odors released by juveniles whose rearing habitat overlaps with spawning habitat. However, juveniles may emigrate before adults begin to search for spawning habitat; hence, the efficacy of juvenile cues could be constrained by degradation or dissipation rates. In lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ), odors deposited by the previous year's offspring have been hypothesized to guide adults to spawning reefs. However, in most extant populations, lake trout fry emigrate from spawning reefs during the spring and adults spawn during the fall. Therefore, we postulated that the role of fry odors in guiding habitat selection might be constrained by the time between fry emigration and adult spawning. Time course chemical, physiological, and behavioral assays indicated that the odors deposited by fry likely degrade or dissipate before adults select spawning habitats. Furthermore, fry feces did not attract wild lake trout to constructed spawning reefs in Lake Huron. Taken together, our results indicate fry odors are unlikely to act as cues for lake trout searching for spawning reefs in populations whose juveniles emigrate before the spawning season, and underscore the importance of environmental constraints on social cues.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Three replicate heated 4-m- diameter plots were warmed to maintain a 4°C increase in understory vegetation compared to three unheated control plots, as sensed by IR thermometers. The equipment was larger than any used previously and was subjected to challenges different from those of many temperate ecosystem warming systems, including frequent power surges and outages, high humidity, heavy rains, hurricanes, saturated clayey soils, and steep slopes. The system was able to maintain the target 4.0°C increase in hourly average vegetation temperatures to within ± 0.1°C. The vegetation was heterogeneous and on a 21° slope, which decreased uniformity of the warming treatment on the plots; yet, the green leaves were fairly uniformly warmed, and there was little difference among 0–10 cm depth soil temperatures at the plot centers, edges, and midway between. Soil temperatures at the 40–50 cm depth increased about 3°C compared to the controls after a month of warming. As expected, the soil in the heated plots dried faster than that of the control plots, but the average soil moisture remained adequate for the plants. The TRACE heating system produced an adequately uniform warming precisely controlled down to at least 50-cm soil depth, thereby creating a treatment that allows for assessing mechanistic responses of tropical plants and soil to warming, with applicability to other ecosystems. No physical obstacles to scaling the approach to taller vegetation (i.e., trees) and larger plots were observed.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2018

Improving geographically extensive acoustic survey designs for modeling species occurrence with imperfect detection and misidentification

Acoustic recording units (ARUs) enable geographically extensive surveys of sensitive and elusive species. However, a hidden cost of using ARU data for modeling species occupancy is that prohibitive amounts of human verification may be required to correct species identifications made from automated software. Bat acoustic studies exemplify this challenge because large volumes of echolocation calls could be recorded and automatically classified to species. The standard occupancy model requires aggregating verified recordings to construct confirmed detection/non‐detection datasets. The multistep data processing workflow is not necessarily transparent nor consistent among studies. We share a workflow diagramming strategy that could provide coherency among practitioners. A false‐positive occupancy model is explored that accounts for misclassification errors and enables potential reduction in the number of confirmed detections. Simulations informed by real data were used to evaluate how much confirmation effort could be reduced without sacrificing site occupancy and detection error estimator bias and precision. We found even under a 50% reduction in total confirmation effort, estimator properties were reasonable for our assumed survey design, species‐specific parameter values, and desired precision. For transferability, a fully documented r package, OCacoustic, for implementing a false‐positive occupancy model is provided. Practitioners can apply OCacoustic to optimize their own study design (required sample sizes, number of visits, and confirmation scenarios) for properly implementing a false‐positive occupancy model with bat or other wildlife acoustic data. Additionally, our work highlights the importance of clearly defining research objectives and data processing strategies at the outset to align the study design with desired statistical inferences.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Changing environmental gradients over forty years alter ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout a river basin

Understanding the degree of intraspecific variation within and among populations is a key aspect of predicting the capacity of a species to respond to anthropogenic disturbances. However, intraspecific variation is usually assessed at either limited temporal, but broad spatial scales or vice versa, which can make assessing changes in response to long-term disturbances challenging. We evaluated the relationship between the longitudinal gradient of changing flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns since 1980 and morphological variation of Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout the Colorado River Basin of central Texas. The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to the hydrologic regime due to changing land- and water-use patterns. Historical collections of Guadalupe Bass prior to rapid human-induced change present the unique opportunity to study the response of populations to varying environmental conditions through space and time. Morphological differentiation of Guadalupe Bass associated with temporal changes in flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns suggests that they are exhibiting intraspecific trait variability, with contemporary individuals showing increased body depth, in response to environmental alteration through time (specifically related to an increase in herbaceous land cover, maximum flows, and the number of low pulses and high pulses). Additionally, individuals from tributaries with increased hydrologic alteration associated with urbanization or agricultural withdrawals tended to have a greater distance between the anal and caudal fin. These results reveal trait variation that may help to buffer populations under conditions of increased urbanization and sprawl, human population growth, and climate risk, all of which impose novel selective pressures, especially on endemic species like Guadalupe Bass. Our results contribute an understanding of the adaptability and capacity of an endemic population to respond to expected future changes based on demographic or climatic projection.

Texas↗
USGS2018

Estimating distemper virus dynamics among wolves and grizzly bears using serology and Bayesian state‐space models

Many parasites infect multiple hosts, but estimating the transmission across host species remains a key challenge in disease ecology. We investigated the within and across host species dynamics of canine distemper virus (CDV) in grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) and wolves ( Canis lupus ) of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We hypothesized that grizzly bears may be more likely to be exposed to CDV during outbreaks in the wolf population because grizzly bears often displace wolves while scavenging carcasses. We used serological data collected from 1984 to 2014 in conjunction with Bayesian state‐space models to infer the temporal dynamics of CDV. These models accounted for the unknown timing of pathogen exposure, and we assessed how different testing thresholds and the potential for testing errors affected our conclusions. We identified three main CDV outbreaks (1999, 2005, and 2008) in wolves, which were more obvious when we used higher diagnostic thresholds to qualify as seropositive. There was some evidence for increased exposure rates in grizzly bears in 2005, but the magnitude of the wolf effect on bear exposures was poorly estimated and depended upon our prior distributions. Grizzly bears were exposed to CDV prior to wolf reintroduction and during time periods outside of known wolf outbreaks, thus wolves are only one of several potential routes for grizzly bear exposures. Our modeling approach accounts for several of the shortcomings of serological data and is applicable to many wildlife disease systems, but is most informative when testing intervals are short. CDV circulates in a wide range of carnivore species, but it remains unclear whether the disease persists locally within the GYE carnivore community or is periodically reintroduced from distant regions with larger host populations.

Ecology and Evolution↗