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A genetic warning system for a hierarchically structured wildlife monitoring framework

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa.

Ecological Applications↗

Negative impacts of invasive plants on conservation of sensitive desert wildlife

Habitat disturbance from development, resource extraction, off-road vehicle use, and energy development ranks highly among threats to desert systems worldwide. In the Mojave Desert, United States, these disturbances have promoted the establishment of nonnative plants, so that native grasses and forbs are now intermixed with, or have been replaced by invasive, nonnative Mediterranean grasses. This shift in plant composition has altered food availability for Mojave Desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ), a federally listed species. We hypothesized that this change in forage would negatively influence the physiological ecology, immune competence, and health of neonatal and yearling tortoises. To test this, we monitored the effects of diet on growth, body condition, immunological responses (measured by gene transcription), and survival for 100 captive Mojave tortoises. Tortoises were assigned to one of five diets: native forbs, native grass, invasive grass, and native forbs combined with either the native or invasive grass. Tortoises eating native forbs had better body condition and immune functions, grew more, and had higher survival rates (>95%) than tortoises consuming any other diet. At the end of the experiment, 32% of individuals fed only native grass and 37% fed only invasive grass were found dead or removed from the experiment due to poor body conditions. In contrast, all tortoises fed either the native forb or combined native forb and native grass diets survived and were in good condition. Health and body condition quickly declined for tortoises fed only the native grass ( Festuca octoflora ) or invasive grass ( Bromus rubens ) with notable loss of fat and muscle mass and increased muscular atrophy. Bromus rubens seeds were found embedded in the oral mucosa and tongue in most individuals eating that diet, which led to mucosal inflammation. Genes indicative of physiological, immune, and metabolic functions were transcribed at lower levels for individuals fed B. rubens , indicating potential greater susceptibility to disease or other health-related problems. This study highlights the negative indirect effects of invasive grasses, such as red brome, in desert ecosystems, and provides definitive evidence of a larger negative consequence to health, survival, and ultimately population recruitment for Mojave Desert tortoises than previously understood.

Ecosphere↗

Dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of a habitat-defining plant species to support wildlife management at regional scales

Sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems provide critical habitat for the Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species of conservation concern. Thus, future loss of sagebrush habitat because of land use change and global climate change is of concern. Here, we use a dynamic additive spatiotemporal model to estimate the effects of climate on sagebrush cover dynamics at 32 sage-grouse management (core) areas in Wyoming. We use the fitted models to quantify the sensitivity of each management area to precipitation and temperature, and to make probabilistic projections of sagebrush cover from present to 2100 under three climate change scenarios. Global circulation models predict an increase in temperature and no change in precipitation for Wyoming. Sensitivity to climate varied among management areas, but the most common response (70% of management areas) was a positive effect of temperature on sagebrush performance. The combination of positive sensitivity to temperature and the predicted increase in temperature under all climate change scenarios resulted in projections of increased sagebrush cover for most management areas. We characterized management areas as “optimal” or “suboptimal” based on the percentage of grid cells in each management area with sagebrush cover exceeding a nesting habitat target value. Only 18% of management areas are projected to switch from being currently optimal to suboptimal in the future. Thirty-five percent of management areas are projected to switch from being suboptimal to optimal. The most common outcome (47%) was for currently suboptimal management areas to remain suboptimal, even though average cover tended to increase in those areas. The direct effects of climate change appear to favor sagebrush performance in the future for most sage-grouse core areas in Wyoming. Our approach is broadly applicable to quantitative climate change assessments where remotely sensed estimates of habitat-defining vegetation are available.

Wyoming↗

Combining individual and close-kin mark–recapture to design an effective wildlife population survey

Close-kin mark–recapture (CKMR) is a promising approach for assessing population size of species that have been difficult to survey using more traditional methods. Here, we combine individual and close-kin mark–recapture in a single modeling framework (ICKMR) and provide an example of study design using this approach for Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ). We develop the ICKMR model and test it using simulated datasets, then use properties of the pseudo-likelihood to investigate the expected precision in estimates of abundance with different proposed survey designs. Our motivating example, the Pacific walrus, is an ice-associated marine mammal found in the Bering and Chukchi seas, where it is an important resource for Indigenous peoples. Pacific walrus abundance declined in the late 20th century, and it is currently a species of conservation concern due to potential impacts of climate change, particularly the loss of sea ice. To reduce uncertainty in population size estimates, researchers undertook a genetic mark–recapture sampling campaign from 2013 to 2017 and collected tissue samples from over 8000 individuals. Another campaign of a similar scale is ongoing (2023–2028). While sample collection was designed for individual mark–recapture, advances in CKMR methods and associated molecular techniques mean that these samples could also be suitable for CKMR. The advantages of CKMR over mark–recapture include an increased effective sample size (because each individual tags itself and its parents, siblings, and offspring) and additional insights into demographic quantities of interest. To make best use of genetic samples, we combine individual mark–recapture (IMR) with CKMR (ICKMR) and investigate whether different sampling strategies can increase precision in estimates of abundance. Our modeling approach includes special considerations for walrus life history, including a multi-year inter-birth interval. We found that expected coefficients of variation (CVs) of the ICKMR estimates of abundance, adult female survival, juvenile female survival, and proportion of breeding females are lower than those expected from IMR alone, and with ICKMR, fewer years of sampling can be conducted to obtain sufficient precision in estimates of abundance. This work demonstrates the utility of ICKMR and could be applicable across a variety of taxa.

Ecology↗

Conserving transboundary wildlife migrations: Recent insights from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Animal migrations are ecologically, culturally, and economically important. Ungulate populations in many parts of Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas migrate long distances to access seasonally available resources, traversing vast landscapes in large numbers. Yet some migrations are declining, raising concerns among scientists and natural resource managers. We synthesize recent advances in ungulate migration ecology with relevance to management and policy. Using case studies from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), we show how new tools can be applied to map ungulate migrations and assess threats across multiple seasonal habitats, serving as a conservation roadmap. To help conserve ungulate migrations, we also propose a transboundary science, policy, and management framework that could be adapted beyond the GYE and that encompasses the needs of multiple species. The key elements of this framework consist of more widespread mapping and assessment of migrations, improved federal and state coordination across jurisdictional lines, increased investment in private land conservation, and strong engagement of local stakeholders positioned to sustain conservation activities over the long term.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗