Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Sustainability”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources
USGS2005

The South China sea margins: Implications for rifting contrasts

Implications regarding spatially complex continental rifting, crustal extension, and the subsequent evolution to seafloor spreading are re-examined for the northern and southern-rifted margins of the South China Sea. Previous seismic studies have shown dramatic differences in the present-day crustal thicknesses as the manifestations of the strain experienced during the rifting of the margin of south China. Although the total crustal extension is presumed to be the same along the margin and adjacent ocean basin, the amount of continental crustal extension that occurred is much less along the east and central segments of the margin than along the western segment. This difference was accommodated by the early formation of oceanic crust (creating the present-day South China Sea basin) adjacent to the eastern margin segment while continued extension of continental crust was sustained to the west. Using the observed cross-sectional areas of extended continental crust derived from deep penetration seismics, two end-member models of varying rift zone widths and varying initial crustal thicknesses are qualitatively examined for three transects. Each model implies a time difference in the initiation of seafloor spreading inferred for different segments along the margin. The two models examined predict that the oceanic crust of the South China Sea basin toward the west did not begin forming until sometime between 6-12 my after its initial formation (???32 Ma) toward the east. These results are compatible with crustal age interpretations of marine magnetic anomalies. Assuming rifting symmetry with conjugate margin segments now residing along the southern portions of the South China Sea basin implies that the total width of the zone of rifting in the west was greater than in the east by about a factor of two. We suggest the most likely causes of the rifting differences were east-west variations in the rheology of the pre-rift crust and associated east-west variations in the thermal structure of the pre-rift lithosphere. The calculated widths of rifted continental crust for the northern and southern margins, when combined with the differential widths of seafloor generated during the seafloor spreading phase, indicate the total crustal extension that occurred is about 1100 km and is remarkably consistent to within ???10% for all three (eastern, central, western) segments examined. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2009

A critical evaluation of crustal dehydration as the cause of an overpressured and weak San Andreas Fault

Many plate boundary faults, including the San Andreas Fault, appear to slip at unexpectedly low shear stress. One long-standing explanation for a "weak" San Andreas Fault is that fluid release by dehydration reactions during regional metamorphism generates elevated fluid pressures that are localized within the fault, reducing the effective normal stress. We evaluate this hypothesis by calculating realistic fluid production rates for the San Andreas Fault system, and incorporating them into 2-D fluid flow models. Our results show that for a wide range of permeability distributions, fluid sources from crustal dehydration are too small and short-lived to generate, sustain, or localize fluid pressures in the fault sufficient to explain its apparent mechanical weakness. This suggests that alternative mechanisms, possibly acting locally within the fault zone, such as shear compaction or thermal pressurization, may be necessary to explain a weak San Andreas Fault. More generally, our results demonstrate the difficulty of localizing large fluid pressures generated by regional processes within near-vertical fault zones. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2012

On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification

The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to ~ 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO 2 , lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO 2 . However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO 2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2016

Insights into methane dynamics from analysis of authigenic carbonates and chemosynthetic mussels at newly-discovered Atlantic Margin seeps

The recent discovery of active methane venting along the US northern and mid-Atlantic margin represents a new source of global methane not previously accounted for in carbon budgets from this region. However, uncertainty remains as to the origin and history of methane seepage along this tectonically inactive passive margin. Here we present the first isotopic analyses of authigenic carbonates and methanotrophic deep-sea mussels, Bathymodiolus sp., and the first direct constraints on the timing of past methane emission, based on samples collected at the upper slope Baltimore Canyon (∼385 m water depth) and deepwater Norfolk (∼1600 m) seep fields within the area of newly-discovered venting. The authigenic carbonates at both sites were dominated by aragonite, with an average signature of −47‰ , a value consistent with microbially driven anaerobic oxidation of methane-rich fluids occurring at or near the sediment–water interface. Authigenic carbonate U and Sr isotope data further support the inference of carbonate precipitation from seawater-derived fluids rather than from formation fluids from deep aquifers. Carbonate stable and radiocarbon ( and ) isotope values from living Bathymodiolus sp. specimens are lighter than those of seawater dissolved inorganic carbon, highlighting the influence of fossil carbon from methane on carbonate precipitation. U–Th dates on authigenic carbonates suggest seepage at Baltimore Canyon between 14.7±0.6 ka to 15.7±1.6 ka , and at the Norfolk seep field between 1.0±0.7 ka to 3.3±1.3 ka , providing constraint on the longevity of methane efflux at these sites. The age of the brecciated authigenic carbonates and the occurrence of pockmarks at the Baltimore Canyon upper slope could suggest a link between sediment delivery during Pleistocene sea-level lowstand, accumulation of pore fluid overpressure from sediment compaction, and release of overpressure through subsequent venting. Calculations show that the Baltimore Canyon site probably has not been within the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) in the past 20 ka, meaning that in-situ release of methane from dissociating gas hydrate cannot be sustaining the seep. We cannot rule out updip migration of methane from dissociation of gas hydrate that occurs farther down the slope as a source of the venting at Baltimore Canyon, but consider that the history of rapid sediment accumulation and overpressure may play a more important role in methane emissions at this site.

Baltimore Canyon seep fields, Norfolk seep fields↗
USGS2017

Thermal and petrologic constraints on lower crustal melt accumulation under the Salton Sea Geothermal Field

In the Salton Sea region of southern California (USA), concurrent magmatism, extension, subsidence, and sedimentation over the past 0.5 to 1.0 Ma have led to the creation of the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF)—the second largest and hottest geothermal system in the continental United States—and the small-volume rhyolite eruptions that created the Salton Buttes. In this study, we determine the flux of mantle-derived basaltic magma that would be required to produce the elevated average heat flow and sustain the magmatic roots of rhyolite volcanism observed at the surface of the Salton Sea region. We use a 2D thermal model to show that a lower-crustal, partially molten mush containing &lt; 20 &#x2013; 40 % "> <20–40% interstitial melt develops over a &#x223C; 10 5 "> ∼105 -yr timescale for basalt fluxes of 0.008 to 0.010 m 3 / m 2 / yr "> 0.010m3/m2/yr (∼0.0008 to ∼0.001 km / 3 yr "> /3yr injection rate) given extension rates at or below the current value of ∼0.01 m/yr ( Brothers et al., 2009 ). These regions of partial melt are a natural consequence of a thermal regime that scales with average surface heat flow in the Salton Trough, and are consistent with seismic observations. Our results indicate limited melting and assimilation of pre-existing rocks in the lower crust. Instead, we find that basalt fractionation in the lower crust produces derivative melts of andesitic to dacitic composition. Such melts are then expected to ascend and accumulate in the upper crust, where they further evolve to give rise to small-volume rhyolite eruptions (Salton Buttes) and fuel local spikes in surface heat flux as currently seen in the SSGF. Such upper crustal magma evolution, with limited assimilation of hydrothermally altered material, is required to explain the slight decrease in &#x3B4; 18 O "> δ18O values of zircons (and melts) that have been measured in these rhyolites.

California↗
USGS2021

Preconditioning by sediment accumulation can produce powerful turbidity currents without major external triggers

Turbidity currents dominate sediment transfer into the deep ocean, and can damage critical seabed infrastructure. It is commonly inferred that powerful turbidity currents are triggered by major external events, such as storms, river floods, or earthquakes. However, basic models for turbidity current triggering remain poorly tested, with few studies accurately recording precise flow timing. Here, we analyse the most detailed series of measurements yet made of powerful (up to 7.2 m s −1 ) turbidity currents, within Monterey Canyon, offshore California. During 18-months of instrument deployment, fourteen turbidity currents were directly monitored. No consistent triggering mechanism was observed, though flows did cluster around enhanced seasonal sediment supply. We compare turbidity current timing at Monterey Canyon (a sandy canyon-head fed by longshore drift) to the only other systems where numerous (>10-100) flows have been measured precisely via direct monitoring; the Squamish Delta (a sandy fjord-head delta), and the Congo Canyon (connected to the mud-dominated mouth of the Congo River). A common seasonal pattern emerges, leading to a new model for preconditioning and triggering of turbidity currents initiating through slope failure in areas of sediment accumulation, such as canyon heads or river mouths. In this model, rapid or sustained sediment supply alone can produce elevated pore pressures, which may persist, thereby predisposing slopes to fail. Once preconditioned, a range of minor external perturbations, such as moderate storm-waves, result in local pore pressure variation, and thus become effective triggers. Major external triggers are therefore not always a prerequisite for triggering of powerful turbidity currents.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2009

Can pelagic forage fish and spawning cisco (Coregonus artedi) biomass in the western arm of Lake Superior be assessed with a single summer survey?

Management efforts to rehabilitate lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in Lake Superior have been successful and the recent increase in their numbers has led to interest in measuring biomass of pelagic prey fish species important to these predators. Lake Superior cisco Coregonus artedi currently support roe fisheries and determining the sustainability of these fisheries is an important management issue. We conducted acoustic and midwater trawl surveys of the western arm of Lake Superior during three periods: summer (July-August), October, and November 2006 to determine if a single survey can be timed to estimate biomass of both prey fish and spawning cisco. We evaluated our methods by comparing observed trawl catches of small (<250 mm total length) and large fish to expected trawl catches based on acoustic densities in the trawl path. We found the relationship between observed and expected catches approached unity over a wide range of densities, suggesting that our acoustic method provided reasonable estimates of fish density, and that midwater trawling methods were free of species- and size-selectivity issues. Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax was by number the most common species captured in the nearshore (<80 m bathymetric depth) stratum during all three surveys, while kiyi Coregonus kiyi was predominant offshore except during November. Total biomass estimates of rainbow smelt in the western arm were similar during all three surveys, while total biomass of kiyi was similar between summer and October, but was lower in November. Total biomass of large cisco increased substantially in November, while small bloater Coregonus hoyi biomass was lower. We compared our summer 2006 estimates of total fish biomass to the results of a summer survey in 1997 and obtained similar results. We conclude that the temporal window for obtaining biomass estimates of pelagic prey species in the western arm of Lake Superior is wide (July through October), but estimating spawning cisco abundance is best done with a November survey.

Fisheries Research↗
USGS2014

Self-imposed length limits in recreational fisheries

A primary motivating factor on the decision to harvest a fish among consumptive-orientated anglers is the size of the fish. There is likely a cost-benefit trade-off for harvest of individual fish that is size and species dependent, which should produce a logistic-type response of fish fate (release or harvest) as a function of fish size and species. We define the self-imposed length limit as the length at which a captured fish had a 50% probability of being harvested, which was selected because it marks the length of the fish where the probability of harvest becomes greater than the probability of release. We assessed the influences of fish size, catch per unit effort, size distribution of caught fish, and creel limit on the self-imposed length limits for bluegill Lepomis macrochirus , channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus , black crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus and white crappie Pomoxis annularis combined, white bass Morone chrysops , and yellow perch Perca flavescens at six lakes in Nebraska, USA. As we predicted, the probability of harvest increased with increasing size for all species harvested, which supported the concept of a size-dependent trade-off in costs and benefits of harvesting individual fish. It was also clear that probability of harvest was not simply defined by fish length, but rather was likely influenced to various degrees by interactions between species, catch rate, size distribution, creel-limit regulation and fish size. A greater understanding of harvest decisions within the context of perceived likelihood that a creel limit will be realized by a given angler party, which is a function of fish availability, harvest regulation and angler skill and orientation, is needed to predict the influence that anglers have on fish communities and to allow managers to sustainable manage exploited fish populations in recreational fisheries.

Nebraska↗
USGS2017

Best practices for assessing forage fish fisheries-seabird resource competition

Worldwide, in recent years capture fisheries targeting lower-trophic level forage fish and euphausiid crustaceans have been substantial (∼20 million metric tons [MT] annually). Landings of forage species are projected to increase in the future, and this harvest may affect marine ecosystems and predator-prey interactions by removal or redistribution of biomass central to pelagic food webs. In particular, fisheries targeting forage fish and euphausiids may be in competition with seabirds, likely the most sensitive of marine vertebrates given limitations in their foraging abilities (ambit and gape size) and high metabolic rate, for food resources. Lately, apparent competition between fisheries and seabirds has led to numerous high-profile conflicts over interpretations, as well as the approaches that could and should be used to assess the magnitude and consequences of fisheries-seabird resource competition. In this paper, we review the methods used to date to study fisheries competition with seabirds, and present “best practices” for future resource competition assessments. Documenting current fisheries competition with seabirds generally involves addressing two major issues: 1) are fisheries causing localized prey depletion that is sufficient to affect the birds? (i.e., are fisheries limiting food resources?), and 2) how are fisheries-induced changes to forage stocks affecting seabird populations given the associated functional or numerical response relationships? Previous studies have been hampered by mismatches in the scale of fisheries, fish, and seabird data, and a lack of causal understanding due to confounding by climatic and other ecosystem factors (e.g., removal of predatory fish). Best practices for fisheries-seabird competition research should include i) clear articulation of hypotheses, ii) data collection (or summation) of fisheries, fish, and seabirds on matched spatio-temporal scales, and iii) integration of observational and experimental (including numerical simulation) approaches to establish connections and causality between fisheries and seabirds. As no single technique can provide all the answers to this vexing issue, an integrated approach is most promising to obtain robust scientific results and in turn the sustainability of forage fish fisheries from an ecosystem perspective.

Fisheries Research↗
USGS2025

Reproductive characteristics and spawning potential ratio modeling of a vulnerable riverine specialist in the lower unchannelized Missouri River, USA

Reproductive characteristics for populations of imperiled, non-game species are not regularly studied but may be important for identifying factors associated with their population sustainability. Understanding reproductive traits of vulnerable species, particularly long-lived species, may provide insight for implementing management actions to respond to potential overharvest. This study aimed to assess the reproductive characteristics of a stable population of long-lived blue suckers ( Cycleptus elongatus ) in the unchannelized Missouri River in South Dakota. We obtained demographic information and gonads from 182 blue suckers collected in trammel nets in March 2021 and 2022. We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess length and weight relationships with gonadosomatic index (GSI) and fecundity and used spawning potential ratios to model the influence of four minimum length limit scenarios. Total lengths of sampled fish ranged from 560 to 821 mm. Female GSI increased with length to ∼730 mm before declining, and male GSI remained consistent across lengths. Fecundity increased linearly with weight and with length to around 750 mm, after which the rate of increase slowed. Using a recent natural mortality estimate for this population, the spawning potential ratio under current no-limit regulations decreased rapidly as fishing mortality approached 0.10 but implementing a minimum length limit (e.g. 610- or 660 mm) could prevent the spawning potential ratio from falling below acceptable limits (0.2–0.3) at moderate-to-high fishing mortality values. This study provides necessary information about the reproductive characteristics of vulnerable, non-game species and demonstrates how spawning potential ratio modeling can be used for species that receive less management focus.

Nebraska, South Dakota↗
USGS2025

Using angler-submitted records to interpret the spatial seasonality of a large predator (Black bass, Micropterus spp.)

In addition to having cultural, social, and economic significance, large predatory fish affect aquatic communities from the top down and serve as markers of ecosystem health. A focus on large predators is critical for managing ecosystems, conserving species, and guaranteeing the sustainability of aquatic resources. Recreational fishing is inherently biased towards large fish, and anglers possess the strength in numbers and geographical dispersion that enable them to sample the upper tiers of size distributions rarely encountered in standard fish surveys. We sought to further understand the ecological requirements and spatial seasonality of exceptionally sized black bass ( Micropterus spp.) via angler catches. Black bass > 3.6 kg were examined across 147 reservoirs in Texas, USA, with 2817 fish recorded by anglers into an online database in 2018–2024. Most fish were caught in late-winter and early-spring in line with spawning activities that included movements in-and-out of shallow water, nest building, and nest defense. Approximately 54 % of fish were caught with bottom-oriented fishing lures and techniques, and 40 % midwater; surface catches were less common. The efficacy of angling techniques varied seasonally. Those effective in winter were midwater, while those effective in summer were bottom or surface. Conversely, a combination of bottom and midwater techniques were effective in the fall and spring, suggesting cyclic habitat transitions. Moreover, the frequency with which fish were caught over various macrohabitats varied seasonally and cyclically. Our findings have the potential to inform habitat management that supports large predators and their migratory relocations. Our findings also underscore the value of using anglers and technology as sources of difficult-to-obtain fish and environmental data that may evade regular monitoring.

Texas↗
USGS2019

A food web modeling assessment of Asian Carp impacts in the Middle and Upper Mississippi River, USA

The invasion of non-native fishes has caused a great detriment to many of our native fishes. Since the introduction of invasive carps, such as Silver, Bighead, Common and Grass Carp , managers and researcher have been struggling to remove these species while also hypothesizing the detriment of further invasion. This study developed a food web model of four locations on the Mississippi River and used those models to assess the impacts of two scenarios: carp removal and carp invasion. In the Middle Mississippi River where these invasive carps are already present, the models found that it would take a sustained exploitation of up to 30% of initial biomass over an extended period to remove Grass Carp and up to 90% removal of initial biomass to remove Silver and Bighead Carp. In the locations where Silver, Bighead, and Grass Carp are not yet established (i.e., Pools 4,8, and 13) the invasion of these species could cause declines from 10 to 30% in initial biomass of native fishes as well as already established nonnative invasive species.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2009

Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2012

Effects of multiple interacting disturbances and salvage logging on forest carbon stocks

Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency of disturbances, potentially impacting carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems. However, little is known about the implications of either multiple disturbances or post-disturbance forest management activities on ecosystem carbon stocks. This study quantified how forest carbon stocks responded to stand-replacing blowdown and wildfire, both individually and in combination with and without post-disturbance salvage operations, in a sub-boreal jack pine ecosystem. Individually, blowdown or fire caused similar decreases in live carbon and total ecosystem carbon. However, whereas blowdown increased carbon in down woody material and forest floor, fire increased carbon in standing snags, a difference that may have consequences for long-term carbon cycling patterns. Fire after the blowdown caused substantial additional reduction in ecosystem carbon stocks, suggesting that potential increases in multiple disturbance events may represent a challenge for sustaining ecosystem carbon stocks. Salvage logging, as examined here, decreased carbon stored in snags and down woody material but had no significant effect on total ecosystem carbon stocks.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2012

Forest structure affects trophic linkages: How silvicultural disturbance impacts bats and their insect prey

Vertebrate insectivores such as bats are a pervasive top-down force on prey populations in forest ecosystems. Conservation focusing on forest-dwelling bats requires understanding of community-level interactions between these predators and their insect prey. Our study assessed bat activity and insect occurrence (abundance and diversity) across a gradient of forest disturbance and structure (silvicultural treatments) in the Central Appalachian region of North America. We conducted acoustic surveys of bat echolocation concurrent with insect surveys using blacklight and malaise traps over 2 years. Predator activity, prey occurrence and prey biomass varied seasonally and across the region. The number of bat echolocation pulses was positively related with forest disturbance, whereas prey demonstrated varied trends. Lepidopteran abundance was negatively related with disturbance, while dipteran abundance and diversity was positively related with disturbance. Coleoptera were unaffected. Neither bat nor insect response variables differed between plot interiors and edges. Correlations between bat activity and vegetative structure reflected differences in foraging behavior among ensembles. Activity of myotine bats was correlated with variables describing sub-canopy vegetation, whereas activity of lasiurine bats was more closely correlated with canopy-level vegetation. Lepidopteran abundance was correlated with variables describing canopy and sub-canopy vegetation, whereas coleopteran and dipteran occurrence were more closely correlated with canopy-level vegetative structure. Our study demonstrates regional variation in bat activity and prey occurrence across a forested disturbance gradient. Land management and conservation efforts should consider the importance of vegetation structure and plant species richness to sustain forest-dwelling bats and their insect prey.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2012

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2014

Tree growth and recruitment in a leveed floodplain forest in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, USA

Flooding is a defining disturbance in floodplain forests affecting seed germination, seedling establishment, and tree growth. Globally, flood control, including artificial levees, dams, and channelization has altered flood regimes in floodplains. However, a paucity of data are available in regards to the long-term effects of levees on stand establishment and tree growth in floodplain forests. In this study, we used dendrochronological techniques to reconstruct tree recruitment and tree growth over a 90-year period at three stands within a ring levee in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MAV) and to evaluate whether recruitment patterns and tree growth changed following levee construction. We hypothesized that: (1) sugarberry is increasing in dominance and overcup oak ( Quercus lyrata ) is becoming less dominant since the levee, and that changes in hydrology are playing a greater role than canopy disturbance in these changes in species dominance; and (2) that overcup oak growth has declined following construction of the levee and cessation of overbank flooding whereas that of sugarberry has increased. Recruitment patterns shifted from flood-tolerant overcup oak to flood-intolerant sugarberry ( Celtis laevigata ) after levee construction. None of the 122 sugarberry trees cored in this study established prior to the levee, but it was the most common species established after the levee. The mechanisms behind the compositional change are unknown, however, the cosmopolitan distribution of overcup oak during the pre-levee period and sugarberry during the post-levee period, the lack of sugarberry establishment in the pre-levee period, and the confinement of overcup oak regeneration to the lowest areas in each stand after harvest in the post-levee period indicate that species-specific responses to flooding and light availability are forcing recruitment patterns. Overcup oak growth was also affected by levee construction, but in contrast to our hypothesis, growth actually increased for several decades before declining during a drought in the late 1990s. We interpret this result as removal of flood stress following levee construction. This finding emphasizes the fact that flooding can be stressful to trees regardless of their flood tolerance and that growth in floodplain trees can be sustained provided adequate soil moisture is present, regardless of the source of soil moisture. However, future research efforts should focus on the long-term effect of hydrologic modification on stand development and on how hydrologic modifications, such as elimination of surface flooding and groundwater declines, affect the vulnerability of floodplain forests to drought.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2020

Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests throughout the western United States have experienced significant mortality in recent decades, much of which has been influenced by climate variability, especially drought. In the western portion of its range, where most precipitation arrives during winter as snowfall and summers are dry, snowdrifts that persist into the growing season provide soil moisture recharge that sustain many aspen groves that are important locations of biodiversity within the landscape. There is growing concern that reduced snowpack due to climate change may reduce the long-term persistence and productivity of aspen communities in these regions. In this study, we evaluated the potential for climate change and drought to reduce or eliminate isolated aspen communities in southwestern Idaho. We used a landscape simulation model integrated with inputs from an empirically derived biogeochemical model of growth, and a species distribution model of regeneration to forecast how changes in climate, declining snowpack, and competition with a conifer species is likely to affect aspen occupancy over the next 85-years. We found that simulated reductions in snowpack depth (and associated increases in climatic water deficit) caused a reduction in aspen persistence; aspen occupancy was reduced under all high emissions climate scenarios. Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) occupancy also declined under all future climates. Aspen regeneration declined over the course of all simulations, with an ensemble ratio of mortality/establishment increasing over the course of both low and high emissions climate scenarios. Climate-induced mortality of aspen clones increased in frequency under all climate scenarios and, under the most severe emissions scenarios, contributed to a substantial decline of aspen cover. Our research suggests that snowbanks will be an important determinant of long-term persistence of aspen under changing climate in the region.

Forest Ecology and Management↗