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Commentary: A cautionary tale regarding use of the National Land Cover Dataset 1992

Digital land-cover data are among the most popular data sources used in ecological research and natural resource management. However, processes for accurate land-cover classification over large regions are still evolving. We identified inconsistencies in the National Land Cover Dataset 1992, the most current and available representation of land cover for the conterminous United States. We also report means to address these inconsistencies in a bird-habitat model. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to position a regular grid (or lattice) over the upper midwestern United States and summarized the proportion of individual land covers in each cell within the lattice. These proportions were then mapped back onto the lattice, and the resultant lattice was compared to satellite paths, state borders, and regional map classification units. We observed mapping inconsistencies at the borders between mapping regions, states, and Thematic Mapper (TM) mapping paths in the upper midwestern United States, particularly related to grass I and-herbaceous, emergent-herbaceous wetland, and small-grain land covers. We attributed these discrepancies to differences in image dates between mapping regions, suboptimal image dates for distinguishing certain land-cover types, lack of suitable ancillary data for improving discrimination for rare land covers, and possibly differences among image interpreters. To overcome these inconsistencies for the purpose of modeling regional populations of birds, we combined grassland-herbaceous and pasture-hay land-cover classes and excluded the use of emergent-herbaceous and small-grain land covers. We recommend that users of digital land-cover data conduct similar assessments for other regions before using these data for habitat evaluation. Further, caution is advised in using these data in the analysis of regional land-cover change because it is not likely that future digital land-cover maps will repeat the same problems, thus resulting in biased estimates of change.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Archive of bathymetry data collected in South Florida from 1995 to 2015

Description Land development and alterations of the ecosystem in south Florida over the past 100 years have decreased freshwater and increased nutrient flows into many of Florida's estuaries, bays, and coastal regions. As a result, there has been a decrease in the water quality in many of these critical habitats, often prompting seagrass die-offs and reduced fish and aquatic life populations. Restoration of water quality in many of these habitats will depend partly upon using numerical-circulation and sediment-transport models to establish water-quality targets and to assess progress toward reaching restoration targets. Application of these models is often complicated because of complex sea floor topography and tidal flow regimes. Consequently, accurate and modern sea-floor or bathymetry maps are critical for numerical modeling research. Modern bathymetry data sets will also permit a comparison to historical data in order to help assess sea-floor changes within these critical habitats. New and detailed data sets also support marine biology studies to help understand migratory and feeding habitats of marine life. This data series is a compilation of 13 mapping projects conducted in south Florida between 1995 and 2015 and archives more than 45 million bathymetric soundings. Data were collected primarily with a single beam sound navigation and ranging (sonar) system called SANDS developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 1993. Bathymetry data for the Estero Bay project were supplemented with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) system. Data from eight rivers in southwest Florida were collected with an interferometric swath bathymetry system. The projects represented in this data series were funded by the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program (CMGP), the USGS South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Project- formally named Placed Based Studies, and other non-Federal agencies. The purpose of the data collection for all these projects was to support one or more of the following scientific aspects: numerical model applications, sea floor change analysis, or marine habitat investigations. This report serves as an archive of processed bathymetry sounding data, digital bathymetric contours, digital bathymetric maps, sea floor surface grids, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Refer to the Abbreviations page for explanations of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. Since 2006, the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) assigns a unique identifier or Field Activity Number (FAN) for each field data collection. Projects described in this report conducted prior to 2006 do not have a FAN. Data from the 13 projects presented in this report provided critical hydrographic information to support multiple science projects in south Florida. The projects and the types of sounding data collected are: Florida Bay (1995-1999) - single-beam Lake Okeechobee (2001) - single-beam Tampa Bay (2001-2004) - single-beam Caloosahatchee River (2002)- single-beam Estero Bay to Matlacha Pass and offshore to Wiggins Pass (2003) - single-beam and airborne lidar North and Northwest Forks of the Loxahatchee and Lower St. Lucie Rivers (2003) - single-beam South Charlotte Harbor and offshore Sanibel Island (2003-2004) - single-beam Shark River and Trout Creek (2004) - single-beam and interferometric swath Southwest Florida Rivers (2004) - interferometric swath Offshore from Wiggins Pass to Cape Romano (2005) - single-beam Ten Thousand Islands (2009) - single-beam Lemon Bay (2011) - single-beam Southwest Florida Rivers (2015) - interferometric swath

Florida↗

Groundwater availability study for Guam; goals, approach, products, and schedule of activities

An expected significant population increase on Guam has raised concern about the sustainability of groundwater resources. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the University of Guam's Water and Environmental Research Institute of the Western Pacific (WERI) and with funding from the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC), is conducting a 3.5-year study to advance understanding of regional groundwater dynamics in the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer, provide a new estimate of groundwater recharge, and develop a numerical groundwater flow and transport model for northern Guam. Results of the study, including two USGS reports and a well database, will provide more reliable evaluations of the potential effects of groundwater production and help guide sustainable management of this critical resource.

Fact Sheet↗

Reformatted data sets used in the Cooperative LACSD/USGS Palos Verdes Flow Study, 2000--2008

Beginning in 1997, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) defined a contaminated section of the Palos Verdes shelf in southern California as a Superfund site, initiating a continuing investigation of this area. A number of agencies, including the EPA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), conducted two oceanographic measurement programs in 2004 and 2007-2008 (SAIC, 2004, 2005; Rosenberger and others, 2010; Sherwood and others, unpublished data) to improve our understanding of the natural processes that resuspend and transport sediment in the area, especially in the region southeast of the Whites Point ocean outfall where earlier measurements were thought to be deficient. Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts (LACSD) deployed a simpler but much broader array of instruments on the Palos Verdes shelf and within the northern reaches of San Pedro Bay from 2000 to 2008 in order to characterize the current and temperature patterns within these regions. This program overlapped the two programs run by USGS and other agencies in 2004 and 2007. The LACSD data were made available to the USGS and the EPA in order to support their joint efforts to model the transport of the contaminated sediments in the region. This report describes the LACSD data sets, the instruments and data-processing procedures used, and the archive that contains the data sets that have passed our quality-assurance procedures.

California↗

Investigations and research in Nevada by the Water Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, 1982

The Water Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, is charged with (1) maintaining a hydrologic network in Nevada that provides information on the status of the State 's water resources and (2) engaging in technical water-resources investigations that have a high degree of transferability. To meet these broad objectives, 26 projects were active during fiscal year 1982, in cooperation with 36 Federal, State, and local agencies. Total funds were $3,319,455, of which State and local cooperative funding amounted to $741,500 and Federal funding (comprised of Geological Survey Federal and cooperative program plus funds from six other Federal agencies) amounted to $2,577,955 for the fiscal year. Projects other than continuing programs for collection of hydrologic data included the following topics of study: geothermal resources, areal ground-water resources and ground-water modeling, waste disposal , paleohydrology, acid mine drainage, the unsaturated zone, stream and reservoir sedimentation, river-quality modeling, flood hazards, and remote sensing in hydrology. In total, 26 reports and symposium abstracts were published or in press during fiscal year 1982. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Tectonic history of the northern Nabitah fault zone, Arabian Shield, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Geologic mapping combined with structural, petrographic, and geochemical investigations were used to evaluate the motion and paleogeographic setting of the northern Nabitah fault zone. The orientation and asymmetry of small structures in three areas along the fault zone suggest that motion was primarily left-lateral strike slip. East of the fault zone, the Afif terrane is underlain by a north-trending granodioritic batholith that is interpreted to be the plutonic core of a volcanic arc (herein named the Nabitah arc) whose activity was coincident with Nabitah faulting. Available geochronologic data indicate that the Nabitah fault zone and arc were active at 710 Ma and that activity may have continued until about 670 Ma. Relicts of a prebatholithic island-arc ophiolite crop out as roof pendants and septa east of the fault zone. Analysis of petrologic, geochemical, and geochronologic data suggests that these rocks may have formed a terrane older than 800 Ma that was continuous from the Nabitah fault zone to the Nuqrah belt. These rocks may have been moved northward by Nabitah faulting from an original position opposite the Asir terrane. Scale-model comparisons with Recent and Phanerozoic volcanic arcs suggest that the Nabitah fault zone may have been a transform fault that developed as a result of sinistral oblique subduction east of the Al Amar fault. According to this model, the Abt schist would have formed in an accretionary prism and the Murdama group would have been deposited in a fore-arc basin. Analogs for thrust faults in the northern Arabian Shield are found in modern arcs developed behind oblique subduction zones. The orientations of the Najd faults may reflect initial formation as normal faults in the fore-arc region of such an arc system. Based on the presence of similar lithologies, similar structure, and analogous tectonic setting, the Mother Lode District in California is reviewed as a model for gold occurrences near the Nabitah fault zone in this report.

Open-File Report↗

Atlas of climatic controls of wildfire in the western United States

Wildfire behavior depends on several factors including ecologic characteristics, near-term and antecedent climatic conditions,fuel availability and moisture level, weather, and sources of ignition (lightning or human). The variability and interplay of these factors over many spatial and temporal scales present an ongoing challenge to our ability to forecast a given wildfire season. Here we focus on one aspect of wildfire in the western US through a retrospective analysis of wildfire (starts and area burned) and climate over monthly time scales. We consider prefire conditions up to a year preceding fire outbreaks. For our analysis, we used daily and monthly wildfire records and a combination of observed and model-simulated atmospheric and surface climate data. The focus of this report is on monthly wildfire and climate for the period 1980-2000. Although a longer fire record is desirable, the 21-year record is the longest currently available and it is sufficient for the purpose of a first-order regional analysis. We present the main results in the form of a wildfire-climate atlas for 8 subregions of the West that can be used by resource managers to assess current wildfire conditions relative to high, normal, and low fire years in the historical record. Our results clearly demonstrate the link between wildfire conditions and a small set of climatic variables, and our methodology is a framework for providing near-real-time assessments of current wildfire conditions in the West.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) surface-water model, version 2

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of water-level gages, interpolation models that generate daily water-level and water-depth data, and applications that compute derived hydrologic data across the freshwater part of the greater Everglades landscape. The U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science provides support for EDEN in order for EDEN to provide quality-assured monitoring data for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The EDEN surface-water model, version 2 (V2), interpolates water-level data from a network of 240 gages to generate gridded daily water-level surfaces for the freshwater domain of the Everglades. When these spatiotemporal continuous surfaces are combined with EDEN’s digital elevation model of ground surface, derived hydrologic data provide scientists and water managers working in the Everglades with data necessary to analyze ecological and biotic responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. Derived datasets include water depth, recession rates, days since last dry, water-surface slopes, and hydroperiod. The V2 model includes enhancements from the previous model (version 1; V1) to accommodate changes in the water-level gage network, adjustments to water-level data, improved understanding of the flow dynamics (particularly near canals), and installation of an elevation benchmark network. Enhancements to the V2 model included Expansion of the EDEN domain: The model domain was expanded to include a part of southern Big Cypress National Preserve and northwestern Everglades National Park upstream of the marsh mangrove wetlands, thus completing the coastal connection along the southwestern boundary of the model; and Development of subdomain models: To account for insufficient water-control structure gage data at some subbasin boundaries, subdomain models were developed for five subdomains, and the resulting water-level surfaces were merged to generate the final water-level surface. Model performance statistics show a general improvement in the V2 model as compared to the V1 model. Overall, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was reduced by 2.42 centimeters (cm) to 4.68 cm. In Water Conservation Area 3A North and Water Conservation Area 3B, the RMSE was reduced by 10.88 and 9.15 cm, respectively. In addition to evaluating model performance statistics, 2-cm water-level maps were generated and evaluated for irregular contours that would indicate a potential problem either with data input or water-level estimates. Three applications of the EDEN-modeled water surfaces and other EDEN datasets are presented in the report to show how scientists and resource managers are using EDEN datasets to analyze biological and ecological responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. The biological responses of two important Everglades species, alligators and wading birds, to changes in hydrology are described. The effects of hydrology on fire dynamics in the Everglades are also discussed.

Florida↗

GEM Building Taxonomy (Version 2.0)

This report documents the development and applications of the Building Taxonomy for the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The purpose of the GEM Building Taxonomy is to describe and classify buildings in a uniform manner as a key step towards assessing their seismic risk, Criteria for development of the GEM Building Taxonomy were that the Taxonomy be relevant to seismic performance of different construction types; be comprehensive yet simple; be collapsible; adhere to principles that are familiar to the range of users; and ultimately be extensible to non-buildings and other hazards. The taxonomy was developed in conjunction with other GEM researchers and builds on the knowledge base from other taxonomies, including the EERI and IAEE World Housing Encyclopedia, PAGER-STR, and HAZUS. The taxonomy is organized as a series of expandable tables, which contain information pertaining to various building attributes. Each attribute describes a specific characteristic of an individual building or a class of buildings that could potentially affect their seismic performance. The following 13 attributes have been included in the GEM Building Taxonomy Version 2.0 (v2.0): 1.) direction, 2.)material of the lateral load-resisting system, 3.) lateral load-resisting system, 4.) height, 5.) date of construction of retrofit, 6.) occupancy, 7.) building position within a block, 8.) shape of the building plan, 9.) structural irregularity, 10.) exterior walls, 11.) roof, 12.) floor, 13.) foundation system. The report illustrates the pratical use of the GEM Building Taxonomy by discussing example case studies, in which the building-specific characteristics are mapped directly using GEM taxonomic attributes and the corresponding taxonomic string is constructed for that building, with "/" slash marks separating attributes. For example, for the building shown to the right, the GEM Taxonomy string is: DX 1 /MUR+CLBRS+MOCL 2 /LWAL 3 / DY/MUR+CLBRS+MOCL/LWAL/YPRE:1939 4 /HEX:2 5 /RES 6 / 7 / 8 /IRRE 9 /10/RSH3+RWO2 11 /FW 12 / 13 / which can be read as (1) Direction = [DX or DY] (the building has the same lateral load-resisting system in both directions); (2) Material = [Unreinforced Masonry + solid fired clay bricks + cement: lime mortar]; (3) Lateral Load-Resisting System = [Wall]; (4) Date of construction = [pre-1939]; (5) Heaight = [exactly 2 storeys]; (6) Occupancy = [residential, unknown type]; (7) Building Position = [unknown = no entry]; (8) Shape of building plan = [unknown = no entry]; (9) Structural irregularity = [regular]; (10) Exterior walls = [unknown = no entry]; (11) Roof = [Shape: pitched and hipped, Roof covering: clay tiles, Roof system material: wood, Roof system type: wood trusses]; (12) Floor = [Floor system: Wood, unknown]; (13) Foundation = [unknown = no entry]. Mapping of GEM Building Taxonomy to selected taxonomies is included in the report -- for example, the above building would be referenced by previous structural taxonomies as: PAGER-STR as UFB or UFB4, by the World Housing Encyclopedia as 7 or 8 and by the European Macroseismic Scale (98) as M5. The Building Taxonomy data model is highly flexible and has been incorporated within a relational database architecture. Due to its ability to represent building typologies using a shorthand form, it is also possible to use the taxonomy for non-database applications, and we discuss possible application of adaptation for Building Information Modelling (BIM) systems, and for the insurance industry. The GEM Building Taxonomy was independently evaluated and tested by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), which received 217 TaxT reports from 49 countries, representing a wide range of building typologies, including single and multi-storey buildings, reinforced and unreinforced masonry, confined masonry, concrete, steel, wood, and earthern buildings used for residential, commercial, industrial, and educational occupancy. Based on these submissions and other feedback, the EERI team validated that the GEM Building Taxonomy is highly functional, robust and able to describe different buildings around the world. The GEM Building Taxonomy is accompanied by supplementary resources. All terms have been explained in a companion online Glossary, which provides both text and graphic descriptions. The Taxonomy is accompanied by TaxT, a computer application that enables a user record information about a building or a building typology using the attributes of the GEM Building Taxonomy v2.0. TaxT can generate a taxonomy string and enable a user to generate a report in PDF format which summarizes the attribute values (s)he has chosen as representative of the building typology under consideration. The report concludes with recommendations for future development of the GEM Building Taxonomy. Appendices provide the detailed GEM Building Taxonomy tables and additional resource, as well as mappings to other taxonomies.

GEM Technical Report↗

Analysis of steady-state flow and advective transport in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer system, Idaho

Quantitative estimates of ground-water flow directions and traveltimes for advective flow were developed for the regional aquifer system of the eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho. The work included: (1) descriptions of compartments in the aquifer that function as intermediate and regional flow systems, (2) descriptions of pathlines for flow originating at or near the water table, and (3) quantitative estimates of traveltimes for advective transport originating at or near the water table. A particle-tracking postprocessing program was used to compute pathlines on the basis of output from an existing three-dimensional steady-state flow model. The flow model uses 1980 conditions to approximate average annual conditions for 1950-80. The advective transport model required additional information about the nature of flow across model boundaries, aquifer thickness, and porosity. Porosity of two types of basalt strata has been reported for more than 1,500 individual cores from test holes, wells, and outcrops near the south side of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The central 80 percent of samples had porosities of 0.08 to 0.25, the central 50 percent of samples, O. 11 to 0.21. Calibration of the model involved choosing a value for porosity that yielded the best solution. Two radiologic contaminants, iodine-129 and tritium, both introduced to the flow system about 40 years ago, are relatively conservative tracers. Iodine- 129 was considered to be more useful because of a lower analytical detection limit, longer half-life, and longer flow path. The calibration value for porosity was 0.21. Most flow in the aquifer is contained within a regional-scale compartment and follows paths that discharge to the Snake River downstream from Milner Dam. Two intermediate-scale compartments exist along the southeast side of the aquifer and near Mud Lake.One intermediate-scale compartment along the southeast side of the aquifer discharges to the Snake River near American Fails Reservoir and covers an area of nearly 1,000 square miles. This compartment, which receives recharge from an area of intensive surface-water irrigation, is apparently fairly stable. The other intermediate-scale compartment near Mud Lake covers an area of 300 square miles. The stability and size of this compartment are uncertain, but are assumed to be in a state of change. Traveltimes for advective flow from the water table to discharge points in the regional compartment ranged from 12 to 350 years for 80 percent of the particles; in the intermediate-scale flow compartment near American Falls Reservoir, from 7 to 60 years for 80 percent of the particles; and in the intermediate-scale compartment near Mud Lake, from 25 to 100 years for 80 percent of the particles. Traveltimes are sensitive to porosity and assumptions regarding the importance of the strength of internal sinks, which represent ground-water pumpage. A decrease in porosity results in shorter traveltimes but not a uniform decrease in traveltime, because the porosity and thickness is different in each model layer. Most flow was horizontal and occurred in the top 500 feet of the aquifer. An important limitation of the model is the assumption of steady-state flow. The most recent trend in the flow system has been a decrease in recharge since 1987 because of an extended drought and changes in land use. A decrease in flow through the system will result in longer traveltimes than those predicted for a greater flow. Because the interpretation of the model was limited to flow on a larger scale, and did not consider individual wells or well fields, the interpretations were not seriously limited by the discretization of well discharge. The interpretations made from this model also were limited by the discretization of the major discharge areas. Near discharge areas, pathlines might not be representative at the resolution of the grid. Most improvement in the estimates of ground-waterflow directions and travelt

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Comparison of two probability distributions used to model sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations: Does the tail wag the assessment?

Undiscovered oil and gas assessments are commonly reported as aggregate estimates of hydrocarbon volumes. Potential commercial value and discovery costs are, however, determined by accumulation size, so engineers, economists, decision makers, and sometimes policy analysts are most interested in projected discovery sizes. The lognormal and Pareto distributions have been used to model exploration target sizes. This note contrasts the outcomes of applying these alternative distributions to the play level assessments of the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment. Using the same numbers of undiscovered accumulations and the same minimum, medium, and maximum size estimates, substitution of the shifted truncated lognormal distribution for the shifted truncated Pareto distribution reduced assessed undiscovered oil by 16% and gas by 15%. Nearly all of the volume differences resulted because the lognormal had fewer larger fields relative to the Pareto. The lognormal also resulted in a smaller number of small fields relative to the Pareto. For the Permian Basin case study presented here, reserve addition costs were 20% higher with the lognormal size assumption. ?? 2002 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗

cloudPEST - A python module for cloud-computing deployment of PEST, a program for parameter estimation

This report documents cloudPEST-a Python module with functions to facilitate deployment of the model-independent parameter estimation code PEST on a cloud-computing environment. cloudPEST makes use of low-level, freely available command-line tools that interface with the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2(TradeMark)) that are unlikely to change dramatically. This report describes the preliminary setup for both Python and EC2 tools and subsequently describes the functions themselves. The code and guidelines have been tested primarily on the Windows(Registered) operating system but are extensible to Linux(Registered).

Open-File Report↗

Documentation of a daily mean stream temperature module—An enhancement to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

A module for simulation of daily mean water temperature in a network of stream segments has been developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This new module is based on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Stream Network Temperature model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model. The new module is integrated in PRMS. Stream-water temperature simulation is activated by selection of the appropriate input flags in the PRMS Control File and by providing the necessary additional inputs in standard PRMS input files.This report includes a comprehensive discussion of the methods relevant to the stream temperature calculations and detailed instructions for model input preparation.

Techniques and Methods↗

Flood characteristics for the New River in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia

The frequency and magnitude of flooding of the New River in the New River Gorge National River was studied. A steady-state, one-dimensional flow model was applied to the study reach. Rating curves, cross sections, and Manning's roughness coefficients that were used are presented in this report. Manning's roughness coefficients were evaluated by comparing computed elevations (from application of the steady-state, one-dimensional flow model) to rated elevations at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and miscellaneous-rating sites. Manning's roughness coefficients ranged from 0.030 to 0.075 and varied with hydraulic depth. The 2-, 25-, and 100-year flood discharges were esti- mated on the basis of information from flood- insurance studies of Summers County, Fayette County, and the city of Hinton, and flood-frequency analysis of discharge records for the USGS streamflow-gaging stations at Hinton and Thurmond. The 100-year discharge ranged from 107,000 cubic feet per second at Hinton to 150,000 cubic feet per second at Fayette.

Open-File Report↗

Simulated flow of groundwater and brine from a flooded salt mine in Livingston County, New York, and effects of remedial pumping on an overlying aquifer

Two ceiling collapses in the Retsof salt mine near Geneseo in upstate New York in spring 1994 resulted in the upward propagation of two columns of rubble through 600 feet of overlying shale and carbonate bedrock. This upward propagation formed a hydraulic connection between the lower confined aquifer (LCA) and the mine and allowed water from the aquifer and bedrock fracture zones that intersected the rubble columns to flow into the mine at a rate of 18,000 gallons per minute (gal/min) . All salt mining ceased in September 1995, and the mine was completely flooded by January 1996. The flow of water from the lower confined aquifer into the mine caused widespread drawdowns, and water levels in the aquifer declined by as much as 400 feet near the collapse area and by more than 50 feet at wells 7 miles to the north and south. Within 3 to 4 weeks of the collapses, water levels in about a dozen domestic and industrial wells had declined severely, and some wells went dry. Water levels in at least 58 wells in the lower and middle confined aquifers were affected by mine flooding. Groundwater in the upper unconfined aquifer and surface water in streams were unaffected by water-level drawdown, but channels of the Genesee River and Beards Creek were altered by land subsidence related to the mine collapse. Water levels recovered from 1996 through 2006, but the mine is now filled with about 15 billion gallons of saturated halite brine. The weight of the overlying rock and sediment is expected to cause the salt beds to deform and fill the mine cavity during the next several hundred years; this in turn could displace as much as 80 percent of the brine and cause it to move upward through the rubble chimneys, rendering the LCA unusable as a source of water supply. Saline water was detected in the LCA in 2002 but was found to be derived primarily from fractures in the limestone and shale units between the mine and the LCA, rather than from the mine. In September 2006, the mine company began a brine-mitigation project that entailed pumping five wells finished in limestone and shale units within the collapse areas to alter the flow gradient and thereby prevent further movement of brine and saline water into the LCA. The pumped brine was routed to an onsite desalination plant. At the same time, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study in cooperation with the New York State Office of the Attorney General to construct numerical models to analyze the groundwater chemistry and delineate the directions of flow. Specific objectives of the study were to: * Assess the sources of salinity within the collapse area and identify the factors that control the movement and mixing of freshwater, saline waters from fracture zones, and brine; * Evaluate the likelihood that the pumping will induce anhydrite dissolution and lead to continued land subsidence; * Construct variable-density groundwater flow models to predict the effect of remedial pumping on salinity within the LCA; * Evaluate the effectiveness of remedial pumping in preventing the movement of saline water into the LCA; and * Predict the extent of brine migration 8 years after a hypothetical shutdown of all pumping in 2008. This report (1) summarizes the hydrogeologic setting and effects of mine flooding, (2) describes the geochemical and variable-density model simulations and their principal results, (3) discusses the implications of (a) continued pumping and desalination to protect the LCA and (b) a full shutdown of pumping after 2008, and (4) suggests further research that could lead to refinement of model predictions. Additional information may be found in Yager and others (2001 and 2009). These reports can be accessed at http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1611/ and http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1767/, respectively. A summary of simulation results can be accessed at http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/Coram/seawat/seawat.html.

New York↗

Relation of stream quality to streamflow, and estimated loads of selected water-quality constituents in the James and Rappahannock rivers near the fall line of Virginia, July 1988 through June 1990

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality-- Division of Intergovernmental Coordination to monitor and estimate loads of selected nutrients and suspended solids discharged to Chesapeake Bay from two major tributaries in Virginia. From July 1988 through June 1990, monitoring consisted of collecting depth-integrated, cross-sectional samples from the James and Rappahannock Rivers during storm- flow conditions and at scheduled intervals. Water- quality constituents that were monitored included total suspended solids (residue, total at 105 degrees Celsius), dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, dissolved ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen (ammonia plus organic), total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved orthopohosphorus, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica. Daily mean load estimates of each constituent were computed by month, using a seven-parameter log-linear-regression model that uses variables of time, discharge, and seasonality. Water-quality data and constituent- load estimates are included in the report in tabular and graphic form. The data and load estimates provided in this report will be used to calibrate the computer modeling efforts of the Chesapeake Bay region, evaluate the water quality of the Bay and the major effects on the water quality, and assess the results of best-management practices in Virginia.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese: 2019 progress summary

This report describes an Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) program designed to maintain the Svalbard population of Pink-footed Geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their target level (60,000) by providing sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides recent monitoring and assessment results and their implications for the 2019 hunting season. In this report we provide results for both the set of nine discrete population models used since 2013 and for a recently developed Integrated Population Model (IPM). Updating model weights (set of nine models) and model parameters (IPM) use the most recent monitoring information available (i.e. through spring 2019). We also compare optimal harvest strategies based on the two modeling approaches. Of growing concern, however, has been the observation that the predictive ability of the original population models has declined over time. Going forward, we suggest that use of the IPM is a superior modeling approach for setting hunting seasons for Pink-footed Geese. Population sizes in May as estimated by the IPM are in general agreement with counts and capture-markrecapture estimates but are more precise. Estimates of survival from natural causes were relatively constant over time with a mean of 0.93 and estimates of adult kill rate ranged from 0.04 to 0.13. Estimates of countryspecific kill rates suggest that most of the overall increase in kill rate in recent years is attributed to increasing harvest pressure in Denmark. With respect to productivity, the IPM produced estimates of preseason age ratio that were variable over time, but on average suggested that young constituted about 18% of the population just prior to the hunting season. Estimates of the preseason age ratio correlated well with the number of days above freezing in May in Svalbard. Our results suggest that population size has stabilized because of declining survival rates that have accompanied an increase in kill rates. Adoption of the IPM this year would result in a harvest quota for the 2019 hunting season of 22,000, based on a May population estimate of 76,500 (95% CI: 66,800 – 86,600) and 8 days above freezing in Svalbard. Using the agreed upon allocation of the total allowable harvest, the quotas are 6,600 for Norway and 15,400 for Denmark. Assuming the total quota is met, the IPM predicts a population size in May 2020 of 64,900 (95% CI: 50,300 – 83,700). We note that the updated set of original models used since 2013 suggests an allowable harvest of 40,000 in 2019 based on a November 2018 count of 91,900 geese (comprised of 12,900 young and 79,000 adults). We are skeptical of this large quota, however. Using all available demographic data suggests that the November 2018 population size was lower than that indicated by the count and that the winter population experienced more natural mortality than expected. These insights demonstrate the inherent risk of basing a harvest quota on a single population count, irrespective of other demographic data.

Report↗

Distribution of Igneous Rocks in Medina and Uvalde Counties, Texas, as Inferred from Aeromagnetic Data

A high-resolution aeromagnetic survey was flown in 2001 over Medina and Uvalde Counties, Texas, as part of a multi-disciplinary investigation of the geohydrologic framework of the Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas. The objective of the survey was to assist in mapping structural features that influence aquifer recharge and ground-water flow. The survey revealed hundreds of magnetic anomalies associated with igneous rocks that had previously been unmapped. This report presents an interpretation of the outcrops and subcrops of igneous rocks, based upon procedures of matched-filtering and potential field modeling.

Scientific Investigations Report↗