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Estimating multivariate ecological variables at high spatial resolution using a cost-effective matching algorithm

Simulation models are valuable tools for estimating ecosystem response to environmental conditions and are particularly relevant for investigating climate change impacts. However, because of high computational requirements, models are often applied over a coarse grid of points or for representative locations. Spatial interpolation of model output can be necessary to guide decision-making, yet interpolation is not straightforward because the interpolated values must maintain the covariance structure among variables. We present methods for two key steps for utilizing limited simulations to generate detailed maps of multivariate and time series output. First, we present a method to select an optimal set of simulation sites that maximize the area represented for a given number of sites. Then, we introduce a multivariate matching approach to interpolate simulation results to detailed maps for the represented area. This approach links simulation output to environmentally analogous matched sites according to user-defined criteria. We demonstrate the methods with case studies using output from (1) an individual-based plant simulation model to illustrate site selection, and (2) an ecosystem water balance simulation model to illustrate interpolation. For the site selection case study, we identified 200 simulation sites that represented 96% of a large study area (1.12 × 10 6 km 2 ) at a ~1-km resolution. For the interpolation case study, we generated ~1-km resolution maps across 4.38 × 10 6 km 2 of drylands in North America from a 10 × 10 km grid of simulated sites. Estimates of interpolation errors using cross validation were low (less than 10% of the range of each variable). Our point selection and interpolation methods, which are available as an easy-to-use R package, provide a means of cost-effectively generating detailed maps of expensive, complex simulation output (e.g., multivariate and time series) at scales relevant for local conservation planning. Our methods are flexible and allow the user to identify relevant matching criteria to balance interpolation uncertainty with areal coverage to enhance inference and decision-making at management-relevant scales across large areas.

Ecosphere↗

Trophic ontogeny of fluvial Bull Trout and seasonal predation on Pacific Salmon in a riverine food web

Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus are typically top predators in their host ecosystems. The Skagit River in northwestern Washington State contains Bull Trout and Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha populations that are among the largest in the Puget Sound region and also contains a regionally large population of steelhead O. mykiss (anadromous Rainbow Trout). All three species are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Our objective was to determine the trophic ecology of Bull Trout, especially their role as predators and consumers in the riverine food web. We seasonally sampled distribution, diets, and growth of Bull Trout in main-stem and tributary habitats during 2007 and winter–spring 2008. Consumption rates were estimated with a bioenergetics model to (1) determine the annual and seasonal contributions of different prey types to Bull Trout energy budgets and (2) estimate the potential impacts of Bull Trout predation on juvenile Pacific salmon populations. Salmon carcasses and eggs contributed approximately 50% of the annual energy budget for large Bull Trout in main-stem habitats, whereas those prey types were largely inaccessible to smaller Bull Trout in tributary habitats. The remaining 50% of the energy budget was acquired by eating juvenile salmon, resident fishes, and immature aquatic insects. Predation on listed Chinook Salmon and steelhead/Rainbow Trout was highest during winter and spring (January–June). Predation on juvenile salmon differed between the two study years, likely due to the dominant odd-year spawning cycle for Pink Salmon O. gorbuscha . The population impact on ocean- and stream-type Chinook Salmon was negligible, whereas the impact on steelhead/Rainbow Trout was potentially very high. Due to the ESA-listed status of Bull Trout, steelhead, and Chinook Salmon, the complex trophic interactions in this drainage provide both challenges and opportunities for creative adaptive management strategies.

Washington↗

Integrating regional and local monitoring data and assessment tools to evaluate habitat conditions and inform river restoration

R Restoring degraded rivers requires initial assessment of the fluvial landscape to identify stressors and riverine features that can be enhanced. We associated local-scale river habitat data collected using standardized national monitoring tools with modeled regional water temperature and flow data on mid-sized northwest U.S. rivers (30–60 m wide). We grouped these rivers according to quartiles of their modeled mean August water temperature and examined their physical habitat structure and flow. We then used principal components analysis to summarize the variation in several dimensions of physical habitat. We also compared local conditions in the Priest River, a river targeted for restoration of native salmonid habitat in northern Idaho, with those in other rivers of the region to infer potential drivers controlling water temperature. The warmest rivers had physical structure and fluvial characteristics typical of thermally degraded rivers, whereas the coldest rivers had higher mean summer flows and greater channel planform complexity. The Priest River sites had approximately twice as many deep residual pools (>50, >75, and >100 cm) and incision that averaged approximately twice that in the coldest rivers. Percentage fines and natural cover in the Priest were also more typical of the higher-temperature river groups. We found generally low instream cover and low levels of large wood both across the region and within the Priest River. Our approach enabled us to consider the local habitat conditions of a river in the context of other similarly sized rivers in the surrounding region. Understanding this context is important for identifying potential influences on river water temperature within the focal basin and for defining attainable goals for management and restoration of thermal and habitat conditions.

Idaho, Washington↗

Building a multi-scaled geospatial temporal ecology database from disparate data sources: Fostering open science through data reuse

Although there are considerable site-based data for individual or groups of ecosystems, these datasets are widely scattered, have different data formats and conventions, and often have limited accessibility. At the broader scale, national datasets exist for a large number of geospatial features of land, water, and air that are needed to fully understand variation among these ecosystems. However, such datasets originate from different sources and have different spatial and temporal resolutions. By taking an open-science perspective and by combining site-based ecosystem datasets and national geospatial datasets, science gains the ability to ask important research questions related to grand environmental challenges that operate at broad scales. Documentation of such complicated database integration efforts, through peer-reviewed papers, is recommended to foster reproducibility and future use of the integrated database. Here, we describe the major steps, challenges, and considerations in building an integrated database of lake ecosystems, called LAGOS (LAke multi-scaled GeOSpatial and temporal database), that was developed at the sub-continental study extent of 17 US states (1,800,000 km 2 ). LAGOS includes two modules: LAGOS GEO , with geospatial data on every lake with surface area larger than 4 ha in the study extent (~50,000 lakes), including climate, atmospheric deposition, land use/cover, hydrology, geology, and topography measured across a range of spatial and temporal extents; and LAGOS LIMNO , with lake water quality data compiled from ~100 individual datasets for a subset of lakes in the study extent (~10,000 lakes). Procedures for the integration of datasets included: creating a flexible database design; authoring and integrating metadata; documenting data provenance; quantifying spatial measures of geographic data; quality-controlling integrated and derived data; and extensively documenting the database. Our procedures make a large, complex, and integrated database reproducible and extensible, allowing users to ask new research questions with the existing database or through the addition of new data. The largest challenge of this task was the heterogeneity of the data, formats, and metadata. Many steps of data integration need manual input from experts in diverse fields, requiring close collaboration.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ma↗

Spatio-temporal population change of Arctic-breeding waterbirds on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

Rapid physical changes that are occurring in the Arctic are primary drivers of landscape change and thus may drive population dynamics of Arctic-breeding birds. Despite the importance of this region to breeding and molting waterbirds, lack of a comprehensive analysis of historic data has hindered quantifying avian population change. We estimated distribution, abundance, and spatially explicit population trend of 20 breeding waterbird species using 25 years (1992–2016) of aerial survey data collected on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP), Alaska. The ACP is an extensive wetland complex on Alaska’s North Slope that supports millions of breeding waterbirds and includes portions of the National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. We summarized annual counts into approximately 6-km by 6-km grid cells and analyzed data with generalized linear mixed models that accounted for survey timing and spatio-temporal autocorrelation. Geese and swans were most abundant along the coast between Admiralty Bay and Prudhoe Bay. Sea ducks, generalist predators (i.e., jaeger, gulls, terns), and loons were most abundant between Utqiaġvik and Point Lay, Alaska. Important areas for most species included the coastal fringe near Teshekpuk Lake, the Colville River Delta, and Admiralty Bay. The National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska was an important area for all species examined. Conversely, density on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge was greater than average for 20% of species. Annual population growth rates over the 25-year survey period were variable: 13 increased (range: 1.4%–13.8%), one decreased (-3.4%), and six were stable. However, even species with no overall population trend had areas of changing population size, suggesting localized conditions affected waterbird distributions on the ACP. Our results can be used to better inform land use decisions, improve monitoring of waterbird populations, and increase understanding of avian response to ecological change in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

Modeling mountain pine beetle disturbance in Glacier National Park using multiple lines of evidence

Temperate forest ecosystems are subject to various disturbances which contribute to ecological legacies that can have profound effects on the structure of the ecosystem. Impacts of disturbance can vary widely in extent, duration and severity over space and time. Given that global climate change is expected to increase rates of forest disturbance, an understanding of these events are critical in the interpretation of contemporary forest patterns and those of the near future. We seek to understand the impact of the 1970s mountain pine beetle outbreak on the landscape of Glacier National Park and investigate any connection between this event and subsequent decades of extensive wildfire. The lack of spatially explicit data on the mountain pine beetle disturbance represents a major data gap and inhibits our ability to test for correlations between outbreak severity and fire severity. To overcome this challenge, we utilized multiple lines of evidence to model forest canopy mortality as a proxy for outbreak severity. We used historical aerial and landscape photos, reports, aerial survey data, a six year collection of Landsat imagery and abiotic data in combination with regression analysis. The use of remotely sensed data is critical in large areas where subsequent disturbance (fire) has erased some of the evidence from the landscape. Results indicate that this method is successful in capturing the spatial heterogeneity of the outbreak in a topographically complex landscape. Furthermore, this study provides an example on the use of existing data to reduce levels of uncertainty associated with an historic disturbance.

Conference Paper↗

Application of lidar to assess the habitat selection of an endangered small mammal in an estuarine wetland environment

Light detection and ranging (lidar) has emerged as a valuable tool for examining the fine-scale characteristics of vegetation. However, lidar is rarely used to examine coastal wetland vegetation or the habitat selection of small mammals. Extensive anthropogenic modification has threatened the endemic species in the estuarine wetlands of the California coast, such as the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse ( Reithrodontomys raviventris ; SMHM). A better understanding of SMHM habitat selection could help managers better protect this species. We assessed the ability of airborne topographic lidar imagery in measuring the vegetation structure of SMHM habitats in a coastal wetland with a narrow range of vegetation heights. We also aimed to better understand the role of vegetation structure in habitat selection at different spatial scales. Habitat selection was modeled from data compiled from 15 small mammal trapping grids collected in the highly urbanized San Francisco Estuary in California, USA. Analyses were conducted at three spatial scales: microhabitat (25 m 2 ), mesohabitat (2025 m 2 ), and macrohabitat (~10,000 m 2 ). A suite of structural covariates was derived from raw lidar data to examine vegetation complexity. We found that adding structural covariates to conventional habitat selection variables significantly improved our models. At the microhabitat scale in managed wetlands, SMHM preferred areas with denser and shorter vegetation and selected for proximity to levees and taller vegetation in tidal wetlands. At the mesohabitat scale, SMHM were associated with a lower percentage of bare ground and with pickleweed ( Salicornia pacifica ) presence. All covariates were insignificant at the macrohabitat scale. Our results suggest that SMHM preferentially selected microhabitats with access to tidal refugia and mesohabitats with consistent food sources. Our findings showed that lidar can contribute to improving our understanding of habitat selection of wildlife in coastal wetlands and help to guide future conservation of an endangered species.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

International Journal of Climatology↗

Meteorologic, oceanographic, and geomorphic controls on circulation and residence time in a coral reef-lined embayment: Faga’alu Bay, American Samoa

Water circulation over coral reefs can determine the degree to which reef organisms are exposed to the overlying waters, so understanding circulation is necessary to interpret spatial patterns in coral health. Because coral reefs often have high geomorphic complexity, circulation patterns and the duration of exposure, or “local residence time” of a water parcel, can vary substantially over small distances. Different meteorologic and oceanographic forcings can further alter residence time patterns over reefs. Here, spatially dense Lagrangian surface current drifters and Eulerian current meters were used to characterize circulation patterns and resulting residence times over different regions of the reefs in Faga’alu Bay, American Samoa, during three distinct forcing periods: calm, strong winds, and large waves. Residence times varied among different geomorphic zones of the reef and were reflected in the spatially varying health of the corals across the embayment. The relatively healthy, seaward fringing reef consistently had the shortest residence times, as it was continually flushed by wave breaking at the reef crest, whereas the degraded, sheltered, leeward fringing reef consistently had the longest residence times, suggesting this area is more exposed to land-based sources of pollution. Strong wind forcing resulted in the longest residence times by pinning the water in the bay, whereas large wave forcing flushed the bay and resulted in the shortest residence times. The effect of these different forcings on residence times was fairly consistent across all reef geomorphic zones, with the shift from wind to wave forcing shortening mean residence times by approximately 50%. Although ecologically significant to the coral organisms in the nearshore reef zones, these shortened residence times were still 2–3 times longer than those associated with the seaward fringing reef across all forcing conditions, demonstrating how the geomorphology of a reef environment sets a first-order control on reef health.

Coral Reefs↗

A structured decision-making framework for managing cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in New York State parks

Cyanobacteria are increasingly a global water-quality concern because of the potential for these organisms to develop into potentially harmful blooms that affect ecological, economic, and public health. Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) can lead to a decrease in water quality and affect many of the recreational and ecological benefits of parks that include lakes. The New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation (OPRHP) is a State agency within the New York State Executive Department charged with the operation of State parks and historic sites. Many New York State parks include lakes or other freshwater bodies, which can be susceptible to CyanoHABs. The OPRHP faces difficult decisions regarding prevention of and response to CyanoHABs. The U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the OPRHP and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to develop a structured decision-making template for managing CyanoHABs in OPRHP parks. Two parks, Moreau Lake State Park and Rockland Lake State Park, served as case studies to motivate and test the template. This report describes how the principles of structured decision making can be used to navigate the challenges associated with managing CyanoHABs in OPRHP parks. Management objectives and strategies for CyanoHABs in parks are described, strategies to evaluate consequences and manage tradeoffs are discussed, and potential challenges to the implementation of preferred alternatives are considered. General guidance is provided so the OPRHP can undertake the structured decision-making process for CyanoHABs in any of its parks. In addition, this report represents the first effort to create a strategy for applying decision analysis tools to the complex natural resource challenge of CyanoHAB mitigation and management. The case studies and template are intended to serve as an example that natural resource managers faced with CyanoHABs challenges can use to inform their decision-making processes.

New York↗

Hydro-morphological characterization of coral reefs for wave runup prediction

Many coral reef-lined coasts are low-lying with elevations <4 m above mean sea level. Climate-change-driven sea-level rise, coral reef degradation, and changes in storm wave climate will lead to greater occurrence and impacts of wave-driven flooding. This poses a significant threat to their coastal communities. While greatly at risk, the complex hydrodynamics and bathymetry of reef-lined coasts make flood risk assessment and prediction costly and difficult. Here we use a large (>30,000) dataset of measured coral reef topobathymetric cross-shore profiles, statistics, machine learning, and numerical modeling to develop a set of representative cluster profiles (RCPs) that can be used to accurately represent the shoreline hydrodynamics of a large variety of coral reef-lined coasts around the globe. In two stages, the large dataset is reduced by clustering cross-shore profiles based on morphology and hydrodynamic response to typical wind and swell wave conditions. By representing a large variety of coral reef morphologies with a reduced number of RCPs, a computationally feasible number of numerical model simulations can be done to obtain wave runup estimates, including setup at the shoreline and swash separated into infragravity and sea-swell components, of the entire dataset. The predictive capability of the RCPs is tested against 5,000 profiles from the dataset. The wave runup is predicted with a mean error of 9.7–13.1%, depending on the number of cluster profiles used, ranging from 312 to 50. The RCPs identified here can be combined with probabilistic tools that can provide an enhanced prediction given a multivariate wave and water level climate and reef ecology state. Such a tool can be used for climate change impact assessments and studying the effectiveness of reef restoration projects, as well as for the provision of coastal flood predictions in a simplified (global) early warning system.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

Quantifying form resistance is essential for estimating summer low and bankfull flow from stream survey channel morphology

Reliable estimates of low flow and flood discharge at ungaged locations are required for evaluating stream flow alteration, designing culverts and stream crossings, and interpreting regional surveys of habitat and biotic condition. Very few stream gaging stations are located on small, remote streams, which typically have complex channel morphology. Adequate gaging is also lacking on larger streams that are remote, smaller than those typically gaged, or have channel morphology not conducive to installation of gages. Complex channels typically contain large scale hydraulic roughness elements that dominate flow patterns (i.e., form roughness), making it difficult to measure channel cross-section area and water velocity, or to measure channel volume even where discharge is known. In channels with large channel form roughness, it is equally difficult to estimate discharge using commonly applied equations based on slope and channel dimensions or basin area. We employed a novel approach that explicitly accounts for hydraulic resistance from large wood and riffle-pool morphology (form roughness) in calculating low flow and bankfull discharge from stream and river physical habitat data collected from 4229 stream and river sites in the conterminous US (CONUS) sampled in 2008–9 and 2013–14 as part of the US Environmental Protection Agency's N ational R ivers and S treams A ssessment (NRSA). Hydraulic resistance derived from form roughness clearly dominated resistance derived from bed particles (particle resistance) during summer low flows in wadeable streams across the spectrum of channel slopes and substrate sizes smaller than boulders. Under bankfull conditions, the influence of form resistance relative to particle resistance was diminished, but form resistance still dominated except in large low gradient rivers lacking complex channels, and in streams or rivers with boulder-size bed particles. We validated our hydraulic resistance estimates by comparing measured discharges with calculated discharges that used those hydraulic resistance estimates along with measured NRSA channel morphology data. Morphology-based summer discharge (low flow) estimates and direct field measurements of discharge in 2333 wadeable CONUS streams showed reasonable agreement (median difference < 2.5×) for discharges ranging from 3.6 × 10 −5 to 123 m 3 /s and drainage areas of 0.12 to 171,000 km 2 . In a subset of 759 of NRSA's larger wadeable stream and non-wadeable river sites where nearby U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gage data were available and adequate, our morphology-based summer discharge estimates agreed fairly well (median difference < 2.0×) with USGS 20-yr average August mean flows ranging from 0.003 to 16,000 m 3 /s. Similarly, morphology-based estimates of bankfull flow ranging from 0.3 to 100,000 m 3 /s agreed reasonably well with the 1.5-yr recurrence interval flood in these gaged sites (median deviation <2.2×). These findings demonstrate the importance of quantifying flow resistance from large-scale form roughness features in natural channels and provide a novel approach for estimating discharge from widely available survey data. This will allow examination of discharge and its ecological influence across the full range of stream and river sizes sampled by NRSA or other synoptic surveys where comprehensive measures of biota, physical habitat, and chemistry are also made. Although these morphology-based estimates exhibit some variability, they are adequate for examining regional patterns in discharge and flow alteration and their association with instream biota and anthropogenic disturbances, providing summer low and bankfull flow information where reliable estimates are lacking.

Geomorphology↗

A geologic and anthropogenic journey from the Precambrian to the new energy economy through the San Juan volcanic field

The San Juan volcanic field comprises 25,000 km 2 of intermediate composition mid-Tertiary volcanic rocks and dacitic to rhyolitic calderas including the San Juan&ndash;Uncompahgre and La Garita caldera-forming super-volcanoes. The region is famous for the geological, ecological, hydrological, archeological, and climatological diversity. These characteristics supported ancestral Puebloan populations. The area is also important for its mineral wealth that once fueled local economic vitality. Today, mitigating and/or investigating the impacts of mining and establishing the region as a climate base station are the focuses of ongoing research. Studies include advanced water treatment, the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of propylitic bedrock for use in mine-lands cleanup, and the use of soil amendments including biochar from beetle-kill pines. Biochar aids soil productivity and revegetation by incorporation into soils to improve moisture retention, reduce erosion, and support the natural terrestrial carbon sequestration (NTS) potential of volcanic soils to help offset atmospheric CO 2 emissions. This field trip will examine the volcano-tectonic and cultural history of the San Juan volcanic field as well as its geologic structures, economic mineral deposits and impacts, recent mitigation measures, and associated climate research. Field trip stops will include a visit to (1) the Summitville Superfund site to explore quartz alunite-Au mineralization, and associated alteration and new water-quality mitigation strategies; (2) the historic Creede epithermal-polymetallic&ndash;vein district with remarkably preserved resurgent calderas, keystone-graben, and moat sediments; (3) the historic mining town of Silverton located in the nested San Juan&ndash;Silverton caldera complex that exhibits base-metal Au-Ag mineralization; and (4) the site of ANC and NTS studies. En route back to Denver, we will traverse Grand Mesa, a high NTS area with Neogene basalt-derived soils and will enjoy a soak in the geothermal waters of the Aspen anomaly at Glenwood Springs.

Colorado↗

Interior Least Tern sandbar nesting habitat measurements from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery

Sandbars of large sand-bedded rivers of the central United States serve important ecological functions to many species, including the endangered Interior Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum , ILT). The ILT is a colonial bird that feeds on fish and nests primarily on riverine sandbars during its annual breeding season of around May through July, depending on region. During this time, ILTs require bare sand of sufficient elevation so as not to be inundated between nest initiation and fledging of hatchlings. Partly because of decreases in available sandbar habitat from river channelization and impoundment, ILTs were listed as endangered in 1985. Sandbars used by ILTs in central United States rivers are highly dynamic and undergo substantive changes across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. River hydrology is the primary driver of sandbar morphodynamics in these systems. Better characterization of sandbar area with time, accounting for varying flow regimes, allows for a better understanding of landscape-scale ecology for sandbar-dependent species such as the ILT. This work uses remote-sensing techniques to quantify sandbar area that may be used by ILTs at the land-scape scale and how it has changed with time. The assessment of landscape-scale trends in sandbar area with time requires datasets with high temporal resolution and long record periods covering large geographic areas. Evaluation of remotely sensed datasets requires consideration of river stage fluctuations. To make this assessment, we developed land-cover classification datasets within active channel masks using all available images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper series of satellites meeting cloud-free (40 percent or less) and ice-free criteria. Landsat imagery was selected because of its long record period, spatial coverage, and regular reimaging cycle, making it well suited to monitor ILT sandbar habitat with time. We also attributed each scene with discharge or stage using a new database integrating U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers river data with Landsat metadata. This report documents development of these riverine classification datasets with a focus on applicability to the ILT. This framework may be used to continue monitoring the ILT sandbar nesting habitat or to evaluate other aquatic and terrestrial species whose life cycles are related to sandbars and channel complexity.

Data Series↗

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water interaction and effects of pumping in a complex glacial-sediment aquifer, east central Massachusetts

The effects of groundwater pumping on surface-water features were evaluated by use of a numerical groundwater model developed for a complex glacial-sediment aquifer in northeastern Framingham, Massachusetts, and parts of surrounding towns. The aquifer is composed of sand, gravel, silt, and clay glacial-fill sediments up to 270 feet thick over an irregular fractured bedrock surface. Surface-water bodies, including Cochituate Brook, the Sudbury River, Lake Cochituate, Dudley Pond, and adjoining wetlands, are in hydraulic connection with the aquifer and can be affected by groundwater withdrawals. Groundwater and surface-water interaction was simulated with MODFLOW-NWT under current conditions and a variety of hypothetical pumping conditions. Simulations of hypothetical pumping at reactivated water supply wells indicate that captured groundwater would decrease baseflow to the Sudbury River and induce recharge from Lake Cochituate. Under constant (steady-state) pumping, induced groundwater recharge from Lake Cochituate was equal to about 32 percent of the simulated pumping rate, and flow downstream in the Sudbury River decreased at the same rate as pumping. However, surface water responded quickly to pumping stresses. When pumping was simulated for 1 month and then stopped, streamflow depletions decreased by about 80 percent within 2 months and by about 90 percent within about 4 months. The fast surface water response to groundwater pumping offers the potential to substantially reduce streamflow depletions during periods of low flow, which are of greatest concern to the ecological integrity of the river. Results indicate that streamflow depletion during September, typically the month of lowest flow, can be reduced by 29 percent by lowering the maximum pumping rates to near zero during September. Lowering pumping rates for 3 months (July through September) reduces streamflow depletion during September by 79 percent as compared to constant pumping. These results demonstrate that a seasonal or streamflow-based groundwater pumping schedule can reduce the effects of pumping during periods of low flow.

Massachusetts↗

The Pacific as the world’s greatest theater of bird migration: Extreme flights spark questions about physiological capabilities, behavior, and the evolution of migratory pathways

The Pacific Basin, by virtue of its vastness and its complex aeroscape, provides unique opportunities to address questions about the behavioral and physiological capabilities and mechanisms through which birds can complete spectacular flights. No longer is the Pacific seen just as a formidable barrier between terrestrial habitats in the north and the south, but rather as a gateway for specialized species, such as shorebirds, to make a living on hemispherically distributed seasonal resources. This recent change in perspective is dramatic, and the research that underpins it has presented new opportunities to learn about phenomena that often challenge a sense of normal. Ancient Polynesians were aware of the seasonal passage of shorebirds and other landbirds over the Pacific Ocean, incorporating these observations into their navigational “tool kit” as they explored and colonized the Pacific. Some ten centuries later, systematic visual observations and tracking technology have revealed much about movement of these shorebirds, especially the enormity of their individual nonstop flights. This invites a broad suite of questions, often requiring comparative studies with bird migration across other ocean basins, or across continents. For example, how do birds manage many days of nonstop exercise apparently without sleep? What mechanisms explain birds acting as if they possess a Global Positioning System? How do such extreme migrations evolve? Through advances in both theory and tracking technology, biologists are poised to greatly expand the horizons of movement ecology as we know it. In this integrative review, we present a series of intriguing questions about trans-Pacific migrant shorebirds and summarize recent advances in knowledge about migratory behavior operating at temporal scales ranging from immediate decisions during a single flight, to adaptive learning throughout a lifetime, to evolutionary development of migratory pathways. Recent advances in this realm should stimulate future research across the globe and across a broad array of disciplines.

Ornithology↗

Estimating the benefits of floodplain restoration to juvenile Chinook salmon in the upper San Francisco Estuary, United States, under future climate scenarios

Many river systems within the Central Valley of California have been disconnected from their floodplains, hypothesized to be partially responsible for declining Chinook salmon populations ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). The primary floodplain of the system, Yolo By-Pass (known regionally as “Yolo Bypass”), offered an opportunity to examine whether improved connectivity between the floodplain and river could limit negative climate change effects on salmon populations. Specifically, the top of the floodplain (Fremont Weir) is being modified to provide Sacramento River Chinook salmon better access to floodplain rearing habitat. We estimated restoration effects on the Yolo By-Pass flood regime now and under future climate scenarios using flow rating curves. Additionally, we used temperature and flow-specific effects on Chinook salmon population dynamics within the Yolo By-Pass and Sacramento River complex to describe how the restoration project and climate change may interact to affect juvenile Chinook salmon biomass production. Our results indicate that the Fremont Weir restoration project will extend the frequency, timing, and duration of Yolo By-Pass flooding. Our production model indicates that the modification will result in greater salmon entrainment rates into the Yolo By-Pass, where salmon growth rates, survival rates, and biomass production were higher when compared to the Sacramento River main stem. The project appears to benefit all regional runs of Chinook salmon, which should help support life history diversity. Our results suggest that the weir modification should benefit native fish from the Central Valley that use floodplain habitat and that these benefits may be resilient to challenges created by a changing climate.

California↗

Coastal Circulation and Sediment Dynamics in War-in-the-Pacific National Historical Park, Guam; measurements of waves, currents, temperature, salinity, and turbidity, June 2007-January 2008

Flow in and around coral reefs affects a number of physical, chemical and biologic processes that influence the health and sustainability of coral reef ecosystems. These range from the residence time of sediment and contaminants to nutrient uptake and larval retention and dispersal. As currents approach a coast they diverge to flow around reef structures, causing high horizontal and vertical shear. This can result in either the rapid advection of material in localized jets, or the retention of material in eddies that form in the lee of bathymetric features. The high complexity and diversity both within and between reefs, in conjunction with past technical restrictions, has limited our understanding of the nature of flow and the resulting flux of physical, chemical, and biologic material in these fragile ecosystems. Sediment, nutrients, and other pollutants from a variety of land-based activities adversely impact many coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. and around the world. These pollutants are transported in surface water runoff, groundwater seepage, and atmospheric fallout into coastal waters, and there is compelling evidence that the sources have increased globally as a result of human-induced changes to watersheds. In Guam, and elsewhere on U.S. high islands in the Pacific and Caribbean, significant changes in the drainage basins due to agriculture, feral grazing, fires, and urbanization have in turn altered the character and volume of land-based pollution released to coral reefs. Terrigenous sediment run-off (and the associated nutrients and contaminants often absorbed to it) and deposition on coral reefs are recognized to potentially have significant impact on coral health by blocking light and inhibiting photosynthesis, directly smothering and abrading coral, and triggering increases in macro algae. Studies that combine information on watershed, surface water- and groundwater-flow, transport and fate of sediment and other pollutants in the reef environment, and their impact on reef health and ecology are essential for effective reef management. Two of the main anthropogenic activities along west-central Guam's coastline that may impact the region's coral reef ecosystems include pollution and coastal land use/development, as discussed in the review by Porter and others (2005). The pollution threats include point-sources, such as municipal wastewater (Northern District, Hagatna, Naval Station Guam, and Agat-Santa Rita Waster Water Treatment Plants), cooling water (Tanguisson Steam and Cabras Power Plants), and numerous storm water, ballast water, and tank bottom draw outfalls; nonpoint sources include septic systems, urban runoff, illegal dumping, and groundwater discharges. Poor land-use practices include development without the use of runoff management measures, increased areal extent of impervious surfaces and decreased extent of vegetative barriers, and recreational off-road vehicle use. Furthermore, feral ungulates and illegal wildfires remove protective vegetative cover and generally result in increased soil erosion. While anthropogenic point-sources have been reduced in many areas due to better management practices, nonpoint sources have either stayed constant or increased. Between 1975 and 1999, it is estimated that Guam lost more than a quarter of its tree cover, and more than 750 wildfires each year have resulted in a greater proportion of badlands and other erosion-prone land surfaces with high erosion rates (Forestry and Soil Resources Division, 1999). Approximately 1.8 square kilometers (km2) of Asan Bay, west-central Guam, lies within the National Park Service's (NPS) War-in-the-Pacific National Historical Park's (WAPA) Asan Unit; the bay is the sink for material coming out of the Asan watershed. Anthropogenic modifications of the watersheds adjacent to Asan Bay, which include intentionally-set wildfires, construction, and agriculture (Minton, 2005), are believed to have increased over the past 25

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