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At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Changing climates and challenges to Charadrius plover success throughout the annual cycle

The Arctic tundra, as well as coastal and inland mudflats and beaches occupied by the 63 Charadrius plover species and subspecies around the world encompass some of the habitats most threatened by current climatic challenges. The migratory habits of most plover species further intensifies these effects as the birds occupy more than one major biome during the annual cycle. And yet there have only been two plover species where specific issues related to climate change have been addressed. Therefore in this chapter, I summarize climate-related issues in areas occupied by the world’s Charadrius plovers to highlight further research and management to at least slow the negative effects of our changing world on their success. To be most strategic and effective, management and research approaches carried out with full knowledge or investigation of the species’ annual cycle and migratory connectivity will be most informative. Given the dearth of climate-related information for this group of birds, future work will likely help not only plovers but other species occupying similar habitats around the world.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Cenozoic planktonic marine diatom diversity and correlation to climate change

Marine planktonic diatoms export carbon to the deep ocean, playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Although commonly thought to have diversified over the Cenozoic as global oceans cooled, only two conflicting quantitative reconstructions exist, both from the Neptune deep-sea microfossil occurrences database. Total diversity shows Cenozoic increase but is sample size biased; conventional subsampling shows little net change. We calculate diversity from a separately compiled new diatom species range catalog, and recalculate Neptune subsampled-in-bin diversity using new methods to correct for increasing Cenozoic geographic endemism and decreasing Cenozoic evenness. We find coherent, substantial Cenozoic diversification in both datasets. Many living cold water species, including species important for export productivity, originate only in the latest Miocene or younger. We make a first quantitative comparison of diatom diversity to the global Cenozoic benthic ∂ 18 O (climate) and carbon cycle records (∂ 13 C, and 20-0 Ma pCO 2 ). Warmer climates are strongly correlated with lower diatom diversity (raw: rho = .92, p<.001; detrended, r = .6, p = .01). Diatoms were 20% less diverse in the early late Miocene, when temperatures and pCO 2 were only moderately higher than today. Diversity is strongly correlated to both ∂ 13 C and pCO 2 over the last 15 my (for both: r>.9, detrended r>.6, all p<.001), but only weakly over the earlier Cenozoic, suggesting increasingly strong linkage of diatom and climate evolution in the Neogene. Our results suggest that many living marine planktonic diatom species may be at risk of extinction in future warm oceans, with an unknown but potentially substantial negative impact on the ocean biologic pump and oceanic carbon sequestration. We cannot however extrapolate our my-scale correlations with generic climate proxies to anthropogenic time-scales of warming without additional species-specific information on proximate ecologic controls.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2014

Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): Equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone

Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

Louisiana↗

USGS2017

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21 st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi ( Drepanis coccinea ) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2025

Centering voices of scientists from marginalized backgrounds to understand experiences in climate adaptation science and inform action

Identifying and building solutions to help people and ecosystems adapt to climate change requires participation of all people; however, Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields, including environmental sciences, continue to lack diversity. To address this issue, many institutions have increased programming to recruit and retain people from historically marginalized backgrounds in STEM fields. Institutions use surveys to evaluate the experiences of community members and identify areas for improvement; however, surveys often summarize and reflect majority perspectives and disregard voices of historically marginalized individuals. In June 2021, a survey of graduate students, postdocs, faculty, staff, and researchers affiliated with the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) evaluated their experiences of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice (DEIJ) using Likert-based and long-answer questions. We analyzed the results as a whole, but also focused on the responses of people who self-identified as members of a marginalized group (“marginalized respondents”) in climate adaptation science to center their voices. Marginalized respondents reported being motivated to enter climate adaptation science to improve society and the environment rather than for intellectual curiosity, which motivated one third of non-marginalized respondents. Once in science, marginalized respondents reported feeling less supported and comfortable at work and were more likely to have considered leaving science and academia in the last year. Long-answer responses of marginalized respondents indicated distrust in the ability of leadership and existing DEIJ initiatives to effectively tackle systemic issues and emphasized the importance of focusing on equity and inclusion before recruitment. Marginalized respondents identified additional funding to support existing DEIJ efforts and undergraduates as priorities. By allowing participants to self-identify as part of a marginalized group, we were able to highlight experiences and needs without risking exposure based on race, gender, disability status, or sexual orientation. This approach can be applied to other small organizations with limited demographic diversity.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2011

Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack—Jolly—Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A meta-analysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1–41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3–66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0–7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Ecological effects of climate-driven salinity variation in the San Francisco Estuary: Can we anticipate and manage the coming changes?

Climate change-driven sea level rise and altered precipitation regimes are predicted to alter patterns of salt intrusion within the San Francisco Estuary. A central question is: Can we use existing knowledge and future projections to predict and manage the anticipated ecological impacts? This was the subject of a 2018 symposium entitled “Ecological and Physiological Impacts of Salinization of Aquatic Systems from Human Activities.” The symposium brought together an inter-disciplinary group of scientists and researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers. Here, we summarize and review the presentations and discussions that arose during the symposium. From a historical perspective, salt intrusion has changed substantially over the past 10,000 years as a result of changing climate patterns, with additional shifts from recent anthropogenic effects. Current salinity patterns in the San Francisco Estuary are driven by a suite of hydrodynamic processes within the given contexts of water management and geography. Based on climate projections for the coming century, significant changes are expected in the processes that determine the spatial and temporal patterns of salinity. Given that native species—including fishes such as the Delta Smelt and Sacramento Splittail—track favorable habitats, exhibit physiological acclimation, and can adaptively evolve, we present a framework for assessing their vulnerability to altered salinity in the San Francisco Estuary. We then present a range of regulatory and structural management tools that are available to control patterns of salinity within the San Francisco Estuary. Finally, we identify major research priorities that can help fill critical gaps in our knowledge about future salinity patterns and the consequences of climate change and sea level rise. These research projects will be most effective with strong linkages and communication between scientists and researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers.

California↗

USGS2005

Vulnerability of northern prairie wetlands to climate change

The prairie pothole region (PPR) lies in the heart of North America and contains millions of glacially formed, depressional wetlands embedded in a landscape matrix of natural grassland and agriculture. These wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services and produce 50% to 80% of the continent's ducks. We explored the broad spatial and temporal patterns across the PPR between climate and wetland water levels and vegetation by applying a wetland simulation model (WETSIM) to 18 stations with 95-year weather records. Simulations suggest that the most productive habitat for breeding waterfowl would shift under a drier climate from the center of the PPR (the Dakotas and southeastern Saskatchewan) to the wetter eastern and northern fringes, areas currently less productive or where most wetlands have been drained. Unless these wetlands are protected and restored, there is little insurance for waterfowl against future climate warming. WETSIM can assist wetland managers in allocating restoration dollars in an uncertain climate future.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, Nebra↗

USGS2014

Land use and climate affect Black Tern, Northern Harrier, and Marsh Wren abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States

Bird populations are influenced by many environmental factors at both large and small scales. Our study evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on the Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Black Tern (Childonias niger), and Marsh Wren (Cistothorus palustris) in the prairie potholes of the upper Midwest of the United States. These species were chosen because their diverse habitat preference represent the spectrum of habitat conditions present in the Prairie Potholes, ranging from open prairies to dense cattail marshes. We evaluated land-use covariates at three logarithmic spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations and climatic influences. The strongest influences on the abundance of each of the three species were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales and precipitation in the year preceding that when bird surveys were conducted. Even among scales ranging over three orders of magnitude the influence of spatial scale was small, as models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. Examination of the effects of large-scale environmental variables on wetland birds elucidated relationships overlooked in many smaller-scale studies, such as the influences of climate and habitat variables at landscape scales. Given the spatial variation in the abundance of our focal species within the prairie potholes, our model predictions are especially useful for targeting locations, such as northeastern South Dakota and central North Dakota, where management and conservation efforts would be optimally beneficial. This modeling approach can also be applied to other species and geographic areas to focus landscape conservation efforts and subsequent small-scale studies, especially in constrained economic climates.

Iowa;Minnesota;Montana;Nebraska;North Dakota;South↗

USGS2015

The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

Estimates of species' vital rates and an understanding of the factors affecting those parameters over time and space can provide crucial information for management and conservation. We used mark–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected during 1985–2013 to evaluate population processes of Northern Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) in 11 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and northern California, USA. We estimated apparent survival, fecundity, recruitment, rate of population change, and local extinction and colonization rates, and investigated relationships between these parameters and the amount of suitable habitat, local and regional variation in meteorological conditions, and competition with Barred Owls ( Strix varia ). Data were analyzed for each area separately and in a meta-analysis of all areas combined, following a strict protocol for data collection, preparation, and analysis. We used mixed effects linear models for analyses of fecundity, Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models for analyses of apparent annual survival (ϕ), and a reparameterization of the Jolly-Seber capture–recapture model (i.e. reverse Jolly-Seber; RJS) to estimate annual rates of population change (λ RJS ) and recruitment. We also modeled territory occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in each study area using 2-species occupancy models. Estimated mean annual rates of population change (λ) suggested that Spotted Owl populations declined from 1.2% to 8.4% per year depending on the study area. The weighted mean estimate of λ for all study areas was 0.962 (± 0.019 SE; 95% CI: 0.925–0.999), indicating an estimated range-wide decline of 3.8% per year from 1985 to 2013. Variation in recruitment rates across the range of the Spotted Owl was best explained by an interaction between total winter precipitation and mean minimum winter temperature. Thus, recruitment rates were highest when both total precipitation (29 cm) and minimum winter temperature (−9.5°C) were lowest. Barred Owl presence was associated with increased local extinction rates of Spotted Owl pairs for all 11 study areas. Habitat covariates were related to extinction rates for Spotted Owl pairs in 8 of 11 study areas, and a greater amount of suitable owl habitat was generally associated with decreased extinction rates. We observed negative effects of Barred Owl presence on colonization rates of Spotted Owl pairs in 5 of 11 study areas. The total amount of suitable Spotted Owl habitat was positively associated with colonization rates in 5 areas, and more habitat disturbance was associated with lower colonization rates in 2 areas. We observed strong declines in derived estimates of occupancy in all study areas. Mean fecundity of females was highest for adults (0.309 ± 0.027 SE), intermediate for 2-yr-olds (0.179 ± 0.040 SE), and lowest for 1-yr-olds (0.065 ± 0.022 SE). The presence of Barred Owls and habitat covariates explained little of the temporal variation in fecundity in most study areas. Climate covariates occurred in competitive fecundity models in 8 of 11 study areas, but support for these relationships was generally weak. The fecundity meta-analysis resulted in 6 competitive models, all of which included the additive effects of geographic region and annual time variation. The 2 top-ranked models also weakly supported the additive negative effects of the amount of suitable core area habitat, Barred Owl presence, and the amount of edge habitat on fecundity. We found strong support for a negative effect of Barred Owl presence on apparent survival of Spotted Owls in 10 of 11 study areas, but found few strong effects of habitat on survival at the study area scale. Climate covariates occurred in top or competitive survival models for 10 of 11 study areas, and in most cases the relationships were as predicted; however, there was little consistency among areas regarding the relative importance of specific climate covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4 th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse Northern Spotted Owl population declines on at least a localized scale.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2012

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern ( Botaurus lentiginosus ), American Coot ( Fulica americana ), Black Tern ( Chlidonias niger ), Pied-billed Grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) and Sora ( Porzana carolina ), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

North Dakota;South Dakota;Minnesota;Iowa↗

USGS2010

Climate change effects on an endemic-rich edaphic flora: resurveying Robert H. Whittaker's Siskiyou sites (Oregon, USA)

Species with relatively narrow niches, such as plants restricted (endemic) to particular soils, may be especially vulnerable to extinction under a changing climate due to the enhanced difficulty they face in migrating to suitable new sites. To test for community-level effects of climate change, and to compare such effects in a highly endemic-rich flora on unproductive serpentine soils vs. the flora of normal (diorite) soils, in 2007 we resampled as closely as possible 108 sites originally studied by ecologist Robert H. Whittaker from 1949 to 1951 in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon, USA. We found sharp declines in herb cover and richness on both serpentine and diorite soils. Declines were strongest in species of northern biogeographic affinity, species endemic to the region (in serpentine communities only), and species endemic to serpentine soils. Consistent with climatic warming, herb communities have shifted from 1949-1951 to 2007 to more closely resemble communities found on xeric (warm, dry) south-facing slopes. The changes found in the Siskiyou herb flora suggest that biotas rich in narrowly distributed endemics may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a warming climate.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Geographic coincidence of richness, mass, conservation value, and response to climate of U.S. land birds

Distributional patterns across the United States of five avian community breeding-season characteristics—community biomass, richness, constituent species' vulnerability to extirpation, percentage of constituent species' global abundance present in the community (conservation index, CI), and the community's position along the ecological gradient underlying species composition (principal curve ordination score, PC)—were described, their covariation was analyzed, and projected effects of climate change on the characteristics and their covariation were modeled. Higher values of biomass, richness, and CI were generally preferred from a conservation perspective. However, higher values of these characteristics often did not coincide geographically; thus regions of the United States would differ in their value for conservation depending on which characteristic was chosen for setting conservation priorities. For instance, correlation patterns between characteristics differed among Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Among the five characteristics, community richness and the ecological gradient underlying community composition (PC) had the highest correlations with longitude, with richness declining from east to west across the contiguous United States. The ecological gradient underlying composition exhibited a demarcation near the 100th meridian, separating the contiguous United States grossly into two similar-sized avian ecological provinces. The combined score (CS), a measure of species' threat of decline or extirpation, exhibited the strongest latitudinal pattern, declining from south to north. Over &sim;75% of the lower United States, projected changes in June temperature and precipitation to year 2080 were associated with decreased averaged values of richness, biomass, and CI, implying decreased conservation value for birds. The two ecological provinces demarcated near the 100th meridian diverged from each other, with projected changes in June temperatures and precipitation from the year 2000 to 2080 suggesting increased ecological dissimilarity between the eastern and western halves of the lower United States with changing climate. Anticipated climate-related changes in the five characteristics by 2080 were more weakly correlated with latitude or longitude then the responses themselves, indicating less distinct geographic patterns of characteristic change than in the characteristics themselves. Climate changes projected for 2080 included geographic shifts in avian biomass, CS, and PC values, a moderate overall decline in CI, and general decline in species richness per site.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US

This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2013

Climate-change impacts on ecological systems: Introduction to a US assessment

As part of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment, over 60 subject‐matter experts from government agencies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector assessed the current and projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Here, we introduce and provide context for the papers included in this Special Issue, drawing upon the key findings from separate assessments of biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, climate‐change impacts in the context of other stressors, and societal responses to change (ie climate adaptation). We also explain the assessment process and show how the current state of knowledge can be used to identify risks and guide future research and management initiatives.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2014

Amphibians in the climate vise: loss and restoration of resilience of montane wetland ecosystems in the western US

Wetlands in the remote mountains of the western US have undergone two massive ecological “experiments” spanning the 20th century. Beginning in the late 1800s and expanding after World War II, fish and wildlife managers intentionally introduced millions of predatory trout (primarily Oncorhynchus spp) into fishless mountain ponds and lakes across the western states. These new top predators, which now occupy 95% of large mountain lakes, have limited the habitat distributions of native frogs, salamanders, and wetland invertebrates to smaller, more ephemeral ponds where trout do not survive. Now a second “experiment” – anthropogenic climate change – threatens to eliminate many of these ephemeral habitats and shorten wetland hydroperiods. Caught between climate-induced habitat loss and predation from introduced fish, native mountain lake fauna of the western US – especially amphibians – are at risk of extirpation. Targeted fish removals, guided by models of how wetlands will change under future climate scenarios, provide innovative strategies for restoring resilience of wetland ecosystems to climate change.

Western United States↗

USGS2016

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Ecological Applications↗