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Paleoseismic targets, seismic hazard, and urban areas in the Central and Eastern United States

Published geologic information from the central and eastern United States identifies 83 faults, groups of sand blows, named seismic zones, and other geological features as known or suspected products of Quaternary tectonic faulting. About one fifth of the features are known to contain faulted Quaternary materials or seismically induced liquefaction phenomena, but the origin and associated seismic hazard of most of the other features remain uncertain. Most of the features are in or near large urban areas. The largest cluster of features is in the Boston-Washington urban corridor (2005 estimated population: 50 million). The proximity of most features to populous areas identifies paleoseismic targets with potential to impact urban-hazard estimates.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Channel-conveyance capacity, channel change, and sediment transport in the lower Puyallup, White, and Carbon Rivers, western Washington

Draining the volcanic, glaciated terrain of Mount Rainier, Washington, the Puyallup, White, and Carbon Rivers convey copious volumes of water and sediment down to Commencement Bay in Puget Sound. Recent flooding in the lowland river system has renewed interest in understanding sediment transport and its effects on flow conveyance throughout the lower drainage basin. Bathymetric and topographic data for 156 cross sections were surveyed in the lower Puyallup River system by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and were compared with similar datasets collected in 1984. Regions of significant aggradation were measured along the Puyallup and White Rivers. Between 1984 and 2009, aggradation totals as measured by changes in average channel elevation were as much as 7.5, 6.5, and 2 feet on the Puyallup, White, and Carbon Rivers, respectively. These aggrading river sections correlated with decreasing slopes in riverbeds where the rivers exit relatively confined sections in the upper drainage and enter the relatively unconstricted valleys of the low-gradient Puget Lowland. Measured grain-size distributions from each riverbed showed a progressive fining downstream. Analysis of stage-discharge relations at streamflow-gaging stations along rivers draining Mount Rainier demonstrated the dynamic nature of channel morphology on river courses influenced by glaciated, volcanic terrain. The greatest rates of aggradation since the 1980s were in the Nisqually River near National (5.0 inches per year) and the White River near Auburn (1.8 inches per year). Less pronounced aggradation was measured on the Puyallup River and the White River just downstream of Mud Mountain Dam. The largest measured rate of incision was measured in the Cowlitz River at Packwood (5.0 inches per year). Channel-conveyance capacity estimated using a one-dimensional hydraulic model decreased in some river reaches since 1984. The reach exhibiting the largest decrease (about 20-50 percent) in channel-conveyance capacity was the White River between R Street Bridge and the Lake Tapps return, a reach affected by recent flooding. Conveyance capacity also decreased in sections of the Puyallup River. Conveyance capacity was mostly unchanged along other study reaches. Bedload transport was simulated throughout the entire river network and consistent with other observations and analyses, the hydraulic model showed that the upper Puyallup and White Rivers tended to accumulate sediment. Accuracy of the bedload-transport modeling, however, was limited due to a scarcity of sediment-transport data sets from the Puyallup system, mantling of sand over cobbles in the lower Puyallup and White Rivers, and overall uncertainty in modeling sediment transport in gravel-bedded rivers. Consequently, the output results from the model were treated as more qualitative in value, useful in comparing geomorphic trends within different river reaches, but not accurate in producing precise predictions of mass of sediment moved or deposited. The hydraulic model and the bedload-transport component were useful for analyzing proposed river-management options, if surveyed cross sections adequately represented the river-management site and proposed management options. The hydraulic model showed that setback levees would provide greater flood protection than gravel-bar scalping after the initial project construction and for some time thereafter, although the model was not accurate enough to quantify the length of time of the flood protection. The greatest hydraulic benefit from setback levees would be a substantial increase in the effective channel-conveyance area. By widening the distance between levees, the new floodplain would accommodate larger increases in discharge with relatively small incremental increases in stage. Model simulation results indicate that the hydraulic benefit from a setback levee also would be long-lived and would effectively compensate for increased deposition within the setback reach

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Conceptual model and numerical simulation of the groundwater-flow system of Bainbridge Island, Washington

Groundwater is the sole source of drinking water for the population of Bainbridge Island. Increased use of groundwater supplies on Bainbridge Island as the population has grown over time has created concern about the quantity of water available and whether saltwater intrusion will occur as groundwater usage increases. A groundwater-flow model was developed to aid in the understanding of the groundwater system and the effects of groundwater development alternatives on the water resources of Bainbridge Island. Bainbridge Island is underlain by unconsolidated deposits of glacial and nonglacial origin. The surficial geologic units and the deposits at depth were differentiated into aquifers and confining units on the basis of areal extent and general water-bearing characteristics. Eleven principal hydrogeologic units are recognized in the study area and form the basis of the groundwater-flow model. A transient variable-density groundwater-flow model of Bainbridge Island and the surrounding area was developed to simulate current (2008) groundwater conditions. The model was calibrated to water levels measured during 2007 and 2008 using parameter estimation (PEST) to minimize the weighted differences or residuals between simulated and measured hydraulic head. The calibrated model was used to make some general observations of the groundwater system in 2008. Total flow through the groundwater system was about 31,000 acre-ft/ yr. The recharge to the groundwater system was from precipitation and septic-system returns. Groundwater flow to Bainbridge Island accounted for about 1,000 acre-ft/ yr or slightly more than 5 percent of the recharge amounts. Groundwater discharge was predominately to streams, lakes, springs, and seepage faces (16,000 acre-ft/yr) and directly to marine waters (10,000 acre-ft/yr). Total groundwater withdrawals in 2008 were slightly more than 6 percent (2,000 acre-ft/yr) of the total flow. The calibrated model was used to simulate predevelopment conditions, during which no groundwater pumping or secondary recharge occurred and currently developed land was covered by conifer forests. Simulated water levels in the uppermost aquifer generally were slightly higher at the end of 2008 than under predevelopment conditions, likely due to increased recharge from septic returns and reduced evapotranspiration losses due to conversion of land cover from forests to current conditions. Simulated changes in water levels for the extensively used sea-level aquifer were variable, although areas with declines between zero and 10 feet were common and generally can be traced to withdrawals from public-supply drinking wells. Simulated water-level declines in the deep (Fletcher Bay) aquifer between predevelopment and 2008 conditions ranged from about 10 feet in the northeast to about 25 feet on the western edge of the Island. These declines are related to groundwater withdrawals for public-supply purposes. The calibrated model also was used to simulate the possible effects of increased groundwater pumping and changes to recharge due to changes in land use and climactic conditions between 2008 and 2035 under minimal, expected, and maximum impact conditions. Drawdowns generally were small for most of the Island (less than 10 ft) for the minimal and expected impact scenarios, and were larger for the maximum impact scenario. No saltwater intrusion was evident in any scenario by the year 2035. The direction of flow in the deep Fletcher Bay aquifer was simulated to reverse direction from its predevelopment west to east direction to an east to west direction under the maximum impact scenario.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Spatial stream network modeling of water temperature within the White River Basin, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington

Water temperature is a primary control on the occurrence and distribution of fish and other ectothermic aquatic species. In the Pacific Northwest, cold-water species such as Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) have specific temperature requirements during different life stages that must be met to ensure the viability of their populations. Rivers draining Mount Rainier in western Washington, including the White River along its northern flank, support a number of cold-water fish populations, but the spatial distribution of water temperatures, particularly during late-summer baseflow during August and September, and the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes regulating it are not well constrained. Spatial stream network (SSN) models, which are generalized linear models that incorporate streamwise spatial autocovariance structures, were fit to mean and 7-day average daily maximum water temperature for August and September for the White River Basin. The SSN models were calibrated using water temperature measurements collected in 2010 through 2020. The extent of the models included the White River and its tributaries upstream from its confluence with Silver Creek in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. SSN models incorporated covariates hypothesized to represent the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes that influence water temperature. SSN models were fit to the measured data and compared to generalized linear models that lacked spatial autocovariance structures. Statistically significant covariates within the best-fit models included the proportion of ice cover and forest cover within the basin, mean August air temperature, the proportion of consolidated geologic units, and snow-water equivalent. Statistical models that included spatial autocovariance structures had better predictive performance than those that did not. Additionally, models of mean August and September water temperature had better predictive performance than those of 7-day average daily maximum temperature in August and September. Predictions of the spatial distribution of water temperature were similar between August and September with a general warming in the downstream part of the mainstem White River compared to cooler water temperatures in the high-elevation headwater streams. The proportion of ice cover emerged as an inversely related significant covariate to both mean August and September water temperature because streams that receive glacial meltwater are colder than non-glaciated streams. Water temperatures of the upper White River increased downstream and are attributed to warming of water temperature from accumulated solar radiation and inflow of non-glaciated tributaries. Estimated water temperatures for the upper White River model are 3–4 degrees Celsius (°C) warmer for tributaries, but 1–2 °C cooler for the mainstem compared to the regional-scale model. Differences between the upper White River SSN model and the regional-scale NorWeST model are attributed to the fact that the upper White River SSN included water temperature observations specific to the upper White River, whereas water temperature observations from lower elevation streams and downstream from the Mount Rainer National Park boundary were used in the regional scale model.

Washington↗

Flood on the Virgin River, January 1989, in Utah, Arizona, and Nevada

The impoundment of water in Quail Creek Reservoir in southwestern Utah began in April 1985. The drainage area for the reservoir is 78.4 square miles, including Quail Creek and Leeds Creek watersheds. Water also is diverted from the Virgin River above Hurricane, Utah, to supplement the filling of the reservoir. A dike, which is one of the structures impounding water in Quail Creek Reservoir, failed on January 1, 1989. This failure resulted in the release of about 25,000 acre-feet of water into the Virgin River near Hurricane, Utah. Flooding occurred along the Virgin River flood plain in Utah, Arizona, and Nevada. The previous maximum discharge of record was exceeded at three U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, and the flood discharges exceeded the theoretical 100-year flood discharges. Peak discharge estimates ranged from 60,000 to 66,000 cubic feet per second at the three streamflow-gaging stations. Damage to roads, bridges, agricultural land, livestock, irrigation structures, businesses, and residences totaled more than $12 million. The greatest damage was to agricultural and public-works facilities. Washington County, which is in southwestern Utah, was declared a disaster area by President George Bush.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗

Subsurface structure across the Tacoma Basin, Washington State, using trans-dimensional Bayesian inversion of fundamental mode spatial autocorrelation data

Spatial autocorrelation (SPAC), the azimuthal average of the normalized cross-correlation between equidistant station pairs deployed in a 2-D array, is widely used to image the subsurface structure. However, the rigorous estimate of subsurface structure and its uncertainties as a function of depth using SPAC data is challenging due to the nonlinear relation between the SPAC data and Earth structure as well as the trade-off between depth and velocity. Additionally, data noise is strongly correlated due to data processing (e.g. filtering, stacking from multiple time segments and azimuthal averaging). Most studies do not account for the correlated noise and fix the ratio of compressional-wave velocity ( V P ) to shear-wave velocity ( V s ) (i.e. V P / V s ratio) and the number of layers, both of which are typically unknown. To address these challenges, we develop a hierarchical trans-dimensional Bayesian inversion of fundamental mode of SPAC data that properly accounts for the correlated data noise, samples the V P / V s ratio and relaxes the number of layers (i.e. model parametrization) to be unknown in the inversion. We further examine the limitation of using only fundamental modes in the inversion. Our synthetic experiments show that the inversion recovers an incorrect model unless we sample the correlated noise and V P / V s ratio in the inversion. The inversion is then applied to SPAC data acquired at 19 sites across the Tacoma basin in Washington State to characterize the V s and the time-averaged V s over 30-m depth ( V s 30 ). Our results show that the V s 30 varies from ∼200 to 800 m s −1 . The V s 30 within the basin is higher in the middle and lower on the east and west sides. We find that these V s 30 values vary with geologic unit. The uncertainties for V s 30 are within 20 m s −1 in average except for the most eastern site TB28. Additionally, the uncertainties are greater for deeper depths beneath most of the sites as the sensitivity decreases as a function of depth. The Vs structure as a function of depth is also complex beneath some sites, possibly because the SPAC curves are affected by higher order Rayleigh modes that are not considered in the inversion. To better constrain the deeper V s structure, V s 30 and/or other average measures of V s over depth, additional constraints from complementary data, such as ellipticity or geologic data are needed. Moreover, our synthetic experiments show that higher order modes can have significant effect in the inversion results, particularly when there is a low-velocity layer.

Washington↗

Thin‐ or thick‐skinned faulting in the Yakima fold and thrust belt (WA)? Constraints from kinematic modeling of the saddle mountains anticline

The Yakima fold and thrust belt (YFTB) deforms the Columbia River Basalt Group flows of Washington State. The YFTB fault geometries and slip rates are crucial parameters for seismic‐hazard assessments of nearby dams and nuclear facilities, yet there are competing models for the subsurface fault geometry involving shallowly rooted versus deeply rooted fault systems. The YFTB is also thought to be analogous to the evenly spaced wrinkle ridges found on other terrestrial planets. Using seismic reflection data, borehole logs, and surface geologic data, we tested two proposed kinematic end‐member thick‐ and thin‐skinned fault models beneath the Saddle Mountains anticline of the YFTB. Observed subsurface geometry can be produced by 600–800 m of heave along a single listric‐reverse fault or ∼3.5 km of slip along two superposed low‐angle thrust faults. Both models require decollement slip between 7 and 9 km depth, resulting in greater fault areas than sometimes assumed in hazard assessments. Both models require initial slip much earlier than previously thought and may provide insight into the subsurface geometry of analogous comparisons to wrinkle ridges observed on other planets.

Washington↗

Predicting probabilities of late summer surface flow presence in a glaciated mountainous headwater region

Accurate mapping of streams that maintain surface flow during annual baseflow periods in mountain headwater streams is important for informing water availability for human consumption and is a fundamental determinant of in-channel conditions for stream-dwelling organisms. Yet accurate mapping that captures local spatial variability and associated local controls on surface flow presence is limited. An empirical random-forest model was developed to predict streamflow permanence (late summer surface-flow presence) for Mount Rainier National Park and the surrounding mountainous area in western Washington, USA. This model was developed to improve upon the existing multi-state, regional-scale probability of stream permanence developed for the greater Pacific Northwest Region (PROSPER PNW ). The model was trained on 544 wet/dry observations collected during the late summer, baseflow period from 2018 to 2020 using the crowd-source mobile application, FLOwPER. Final model accuracy was 0.74 with drainage area and covariates describing geology, topography, and land cover as top predictors of streamflow permanence compared to coarser resolution climatic covariates. The prevalence of static covariates over climatic covariates as top ranked important covariates highlights the importance of scale when evaluating controls on streamflow permanence. Cross validation of the model indicates that streamflow permanence probabilities from this model is an improvement over the regional-scale PROSPER PNW model demonstrating the utility of relatively simple, crowd-sourced data to address water resource needs, and that determination of important predictors of streamflow permanence is influenced by the spatial and temporal resolution of analysis.

Washington↗

Digital-model study of ground-water hydrology, Columbia Basin Irrigation Project Area, Washington

Since 1952 water diverted from the Columbia River at Grand Coulee Dam has been used to irrigate parts of the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project area in eastern Washington, and as a result ground-water levels generally have risen in the area. The rapid increases in ground-water inflow, outflow, and storage from irrigation have created a need for a better understanding of the ground-water system before and after the start of irrigation to establish guidelines necessary for management of the area's ground-water resource. Data and information from previous geologic and hydrologic studies were used as a basis for quantitative analyses of ground-water inflow and outflow by means of digital computer models representing three major areas--Quincy Basin, Pasco Basin, and Royal Slope.

Washington↗

Water availability of Washington County, Alabama

Large quantities of ground water and surface water are available in Washington County. Major sources of ground water are the Gosport Sand and Lisbon Formation undifferentiated, the Miocene Series undifferentiated, and alluvium and low terrace deposits. The Miocene, the most productive source of ground water, will yield 0.5 to 1.0 mgd (million gallons per day) per well and is a potential source of larger supplies in most of the county. The quantity of potable water available is governed largely by geologic structures. Average flows of the Tombigbee and Mobile Rivers in the southeast corner of the county are 18,200 and 39,400 mgd. Average runoff originating in the county is about 1,100 mgd or 1 mgd per square mile. Water in aquifers tapped by wells generally contains less than 500 mg/l (milligrams per liter) dissolved solids. The water generally is soft to moderately hard. Water in streams is soft to moderately hard and low in dissolved solids. Estimated water use in 1966 was 43.5 mgd of which 10.9 mgd was ground water and 32.6 mgd was surface water.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluation of the relation between evapotranspiration and normalized difference vegetation index for downscaling the simplified surface energy balance model

The Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model uses satellite imagery to estimate actual evapotranspiration (ET a ) at 1-kilometer resolution. SSEB ET a is useful for estimating irrigation water use; however, resolution limitations restrict its use to regional scale applications. The U.S. Geological Survey investigated the downscaling potential of SSEB ET a from 1 kilometer to 250 meters by correlating ET a with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument (MODIS). Correlations were studied in three arid to semiarid irrigated landscapes of the Western United States (Escalante Valley near Enterprise, Utah; Palo Verde Valley near Blythe, California; and part of the Columbia Plateau near Quincy, Washington) during several periods from 2002 to 2008. Irrigation season ET a -NDVI correlations were lower than expected, ranging from R 2 of 0.20 to 0.61 because of an eastward 2–3 kilometer shift in ET a data. The shift is due to a similar shift identified in the land-surface temperature (LST) data from the MODIS Terra satellite, which is used in the SSEB model. Further study is needed to delineate the Terra LST shift, its effect on SSEB ET a , and the relation between ET a and NDVI.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A characterization of deep-sea coral and sponge communities along the California and Oregon coast using a remotely operated vehicle on the EXPRESS 2018 expedition

Deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) communities serve as essential fish habitats (EFH) by providing shelter and nursery habitat, increasing diversity, and increasing prey availability (Freese and Wing, 2003; Bright, 2007; Baillon et al., 2012; Henderson et al., 2020). Threats to these long-lived, fragile organisms from bottom contact fishing gear, potential offshore renewable energy development, and ocean warming and acidification have increased the need for DSCS research along the U.S. West Coast (Gomez et al., 2018; Salgado et al., 2018; Yoklavich, et al., 2018; Gugliotti et al., 2019). The focus of these studies has varied from species distribution and abundance (Yoklavich and Love, 2005; Tissot et al., 2006) to developing and validating predictive distribution models (Huff et al., 2013; Rooper et al., 2017; Kreidler, 2020) to finding medicinal uses for corals and sponges (Essack et al., 2011; Shrestha et al., 2018). Due to the vast area of unexplored seafloor within the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ; 200 nautical miles off the coast) and the technological requirements and expanse of deep-sea research, there is still much to learn about the distributions and biology of DSCS. This information is critical to resource managers for effective conservation and management of DSCS habitats. Protections are provided by the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) designation of groundfish EFH conservation areas (EFHCA) and the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA). Areas designated as EFHCA are closed to bottom trawl fishing to protect and preserve seafloor habitats. Recently the PFMC adopted Amendment 28 to the Groundfish Fishery Management Plan (GFMP; Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2019) which modified EFHCAs by closing new areas identified as vulnerable and reopening areas deemed not vulnerable. The NMSA prohibits bottom disturbance from certain activities within areas designated as national marine sanctuaries, such as oil and gas exploration or extraction, cable laying, and other forms of seabed alteration or construction that disturb benthic communities. NOAA’s Deep-Sea Coral and Research Technology Program (DSCRTP) began a 4-yr funding initiative for the U.S. West Coast in 2017. The goals of the West Coast Deep-Sea Coral Initiative (WCDSCI) were to: 1) gather baseline information on areas subject to fishing regulation changes prior to the implementation of Amendment 28; 2) improve our understanding of known DSCS bycatch “hot spots”; and 3) explore and assess DSCS resources within NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries with emphasis on areas of sanctuary resource protection and management concerns. During the first year of the program, a research cruise was developed to survey the West Coast from Oregon to California studying the DSCS ecosystems in priority areas. The 31-day expedition (9 Oct – 8 Nov, 2018) was launched from the NOAA Ship Bell M. Shimada, beginning in Newport, OR and ending in San Diego, CA. The science team assembled for this cruise were members of the EXpanding Pacific Research and Exploration of Submerged Systems (EXPRESS) campaign, which brings together researchers from federal and nonfederal institutions to collaborate on scientific expeditions targeting the deepwater areas off California, Oregon, and Washington. EXPRESS supports researchers leveraging funding, resources, personnel, and expertise to accomplish more science than would have been possible by a single entity alone. The 2018 coastwide expedition included research partners from National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC) and Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC), National Ocean Service (Channel Islands, Cordell Bank, Greater Farallones, and Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuaries), Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI). Research objectives for the cruise were to: 1) Collect DSCS baseline information at 10 of the EFHCA sites undergoing protection modifications by the Pacific Fishery Management Council. 2) Collect DSCS and fish data at previously unexplored sites within West Coast National Marine Sanctuaries. 3) Revisit a subset of previously surveyed sites to document if changes in DCSC have occurred over time. 4) Collect information to validate BOEM supported cross-shelf habitat suitability models for DSCS. 5) Collect samples to help in identifying (and understanding) West Coast DSCS and expand use of new technologies (ROV, AUV, and environmental DNA [eDNA]). 6) Collect water samples for coastwide eDNA, nutrient, and carbon chemistry studies.

California, Oregon↗

Simulation of groundwater storage changes in the Quincy Basin, Washington

The Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group and younger sedimentary deposits of lacustrine, fluvial, eolian, and cataclysmic-flood origins compose the aquifer system of the Quincy Basin in eastern Washington. Irrigation return flow and canal leakage from the Columbia Basin Project have caused groundwater levels to rise substantially in some areas. Water resource managers are considering extraction of additional stored groundwater to supply increasing demand. To help address these concerns, the transient groundwater model of the Quincy Basin documented in this report was developed to quantify the changes in groundwater flow and storage. The model based on the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference numerical code MODFLOW uses a 1-kilometer finite-difference grid and is constrained by logs from 698 wells in the study area. Five model layers represent two sedimentary hydrogeologic units and underlying basalt formations. Head-dependent flux boundaries represent the Columbia River and other streams, lakes and reservoirs, underflow to and (or) from adjacent areas, and discharge to agricultural drains and springs. Specified flux boundaries represent recharge from precipitation and anthropogenic sources, including irrigation return flow and leakage from water-distribution canals and discharge through groundwater withdrawal wells. Transient conditions were simulated from 1920 to 2013 using annual stress periods. The model was calibrated with the parameter-estimation code PEST to a total of 4,064 water levels measured in 710 wells. Increased recharge since predevelopment resulted in an 11.5 million acre-feet increase in storage in the Quincy Groundwater Management Subarea of the Quincy Basin. Four groundwater-management scenarios were formulated with input from project stakeholders and were simulated using the calibrated model to provide representative examples of how the model could be used to evaluate the effect on groundwater levels as a result of potential changes in recharge, groundwater withdrawals, or increased flow in Crab Creek. Decreased recharge and increased groundwater withdrawals both resulted in declines in groundwater levels over 2013 conditions, whereas increasing the flow in Crab Creek resulted in increased groundwater levels over 2013 conditions.

Washington↗

Fossil flora of the John Day basin, Oregon

For a number of years I have been gradually accumulating material for a thorough revision of the Tertiary floras of the Pacific slope. Fossil plants are known to occur at numerous points within this area, and their study and identification has already furnished valuable data bearing on the geological history of the region, and when still further exploited it is confidently expected that they will afford more exact data for the use of geologists. This investigation is progressing satisfactorily, and at no distant day it is hoped to have it in form for final publication. From time to time various members of the United States Geological Survey, as well as others not connected with this organization, have sent in small collections of fossil plants for determination. These have been studied and reported upon as fully as the condition of the problem permitted, so that the determinations could be immediately available to geologists, but with the reservation that none of the questions could be fully settled until all known material had been studied and properly correlated. The rich fossil plant deposits in the John Day Basin, as set forth more fully in the historical account which follows, have been known for a period of nearly fifty years, but their study has been carried on in a more or less desultory manner. There has also been considerable confusion as to the horizons whence these plants came. As various species of plants described originally from the John Day region were detected in various other localities in Oregon, and in surrounding areas, as central Washington, western Idaho, and northern California, it became more than ever apparent that a thorough study of all material obtainable from this type area would be necessary before any definite or satisfactory conclusions could be reached. The immediate incentive for this revision was furnished by the receipt of a considerable collection of plants, made by Dr. John C. Merriam in 1900 while he was in charge of an expedition into this region made under the auspices of the University of California. When these plants were submitted to me for study, it was thought possible to present their description, together with a revision of our knowledge of the previously known forms, within a space sufficiently small to permit the publication of the matter as an appendix to a paper on the general geology of the area, then in preparation by Dr. Merriam. But it soon became apparent that this could not be adequately done within the space available, and a short preliminary report was prepared for and published by Dr. Merriam. The results of a complete restudy of all available fossil plant material from the John Day Basin are now presented. I wish to record my great indebtedness to Dr. Merriam, who not only accompanied me at a considerable personal sacrifice on a trip through the region in 1901, but placed unreservedly at my disposal all material bearing in any way on the problem then in the paleontological museum of the University of California. To Dr. Arthur Hollick I am indebted for the loan of all material from the John Day region belonging to Columbia University, and now deposited in the New York Botanical Garden at Bronx Park. This material, together with the rich collections belonging to the United States National Museum, represents practically all now known to have come from the John Day Basin.

Oregon↗

Conceptual model and numerical simulation of the ground-water-flow system in the unconsolidated deposits of the Colville River Watershed, Stevens County, Washington

Increased use of ground- and surface-water supplies in watersheds of Washington State in recent years has created concern that insufficient instream flows remain for fish and other uses. Issuance of new ground-water rights in the Colville River Watershed was halted by the Washington Department of Ecology due to possible hydraulic continuity of the ground and surface waters. A ground-water-flow model was developed to aid in the understanding of the ground-water system and the regional effects of ground-water development alternatives on the water resources of the Colville River Watershed. The Colville River Watershed is underlain by unconsolidated deposits of glacial and non-glacial origin. The surficial geologic units and the deposits at depth were differentiated into aquifers and confining units on the basis of areal extent and general water-bearing characteristics. Five principal hydrogeologic units are recognized in the study area and form the basis of the ground-water-flow model. A steady-state ground-water-flow model of the Colville River Watershed was developed to simulate September 2001 conditions. The simulation period represented a period of below-average precipitation. The model was calibrated using nonlinear regression to minimize the weighted differences or residuals between simulated and measured hydraulic head and stream discharge. Simulated inflow to the model area was 53,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) from precipitation and secondary recharge, and 36,000 acre-ft/yr from stream and lake leakage. Simulated outflow from the model was primarily through discharge to streams and lakes (71,000 acre-ft/yr), ground-water outflow (9,000 acre-ft/yr), and ground-water withdrawals (9,000 acre-ft/yr). Because the period of simulation, September 2001, was extremely dry, all components of the ground-water budget are presumably less than average flow conditions. The calibrated model was used to simulate the possible effects of increased ground-water pumping. Although the steady-state model cannot be used to predict how long it would take for effects to occur, it does simulate the ultimate response to such changes relative to September 2001 (relatively dry) conditions. Steady-state simulations indicated that increased pumping would result in decreased discharge to streams and lakes and decreased ground-water outflow. The location of the simulated increased ground-water pumping determined the primary source of the water withdrawn. Simulated pumping wells in the northern end of the main Colville River valley diverted a large percentage of the pumpage from ground-water outflow. Simulated pumping wells in the southern end of the main Colville River valley diverted a large percentage of the pumpage from flow to rivers and streams. The calibrated steady-state model also was used to simulate predevelopment conditions, during which no ground-water pumping, secondary recharge, or irrigation application occurred. Cumulative streamflow in the Colville River Watershed increased by 1.1 cubic feet per second, or about 36 percent of net ground-water pumping in 2001. The model is intended to simulate the regional ground-water-flow system of the Colville River Watershed and can be used as a tool for water-resource managers to assess the ultimate regional effects of changes in stresses. The regional scale of the model, coupled with relatively sparse data, must be considered when applying the model in areas of poorly understood hydrology, or examining hydrologic conditions at a larger scale than what is appropriate.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrographs showing ground-water level trends for selected wells in the Yakima River basin aquifer system, Washington

Selected ground-water level hydrographs for the Yakima River basin aquifer system, Washington, are presented in an interactive web-based map to illustrate the existence or lack of trends in ground-water levels and, thus, potential variations in ground-water availability in the area. Hydrographs are linked to points corresponding to the well location on an interactive map of the study area. Ground-water level data and well information from Federal, State, and local agencies were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System. Selected data points were excluded from hydrographs to emphasize long-term term trends over short-term effects of human activity (such as pumping a well) and seasonal fluctuations in ground-water levels.

Washington↗

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was constructed for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS), Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, to evaluate and test the conceptual model of the system and to evaluate groundwater availability. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-resource managers and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate proposed alternative management strategies and assess the long‑term availability of groundwater. The numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the CPRAS was completed with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. The model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW-NWT. The model uses 3-kilometer (9,842.5 feet) grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 126 rows and 131 columns. Vertically, the model domain was subdivided into six geologic model units. From youngest to oldest, the units are the Overburden, the Saddle Mountains Basalt, the Mabton Interbed, the Wanapum Basalt, the Vantage Interbed, and the Grande Ronde Basalt. Natural recharge was estimated using gridded historical estimates of annual precipitation for the period 1895–2007. Pre-development recharge was estimated to be the average natural recharge for this period. Irrigation recharge and irrigation pumping were estimated using a remote-sensing based soil-water balance model for the period 1985–2007. Pre-1985 irrigation recharge and pumping were estimated using previously published compilation maps and the history of large-scale irrigation projects. Pumping estimates for municipal, industrial, rural, residential, and all other uses were estimated using reported values and census data. Pumping was assumed to be negligible prior to 1920. Two models were constructed to simulate groundwater flow in the CPRAS: a steady-state predevelopment model representing conditions before large-scale pumping and irrigation altered the system, and a transient model representing the period 1900–2007. Automated parameter-estimation techniques (steady-state predevelopment model) and traditional trial-and-error (transient model) methods were used for calibration. To calibrate the steady-state and transient models, 10,525 and 46,460 water level measurements, respectively, and 50 base-flow estimates were used. The steady-state model simulated the shape, slope, and trends of a potentiometric surface that was generally consistent with mapped water levels. For the transient model, the mean and median difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is -10 and 4 ft, respectively, with a standard deviation of 164 ft over a 5,648 ft range of measured heads. The residuals for the simulation period show that 52 percent of the simulated heads exceeded measured heads with a median residual value of 43 ft, and 48 percent were less than measured heads with a median residual value of -76 ft. The CPRAS model was constructed to derive components of the groundwater budget and help understand the interactions of stresses, such as recharge, groundwater pumping, and commingling wells on the groundwater and surface-water system. Through these applications, the model can be used to identify trends in groundwater storage and use, and quantify groundwater availability. The annual groundwater budgets showed several patterns of change over the simulation period. Groundwater pumping was negligible until the 1950s and began to increase significantly during the 1970s and 1980s. Recharge was highly variable due to the interannual variability of precipitation, but began to increase in the late 1940s due to the increase in surface-water irrigation projects. Groundwater contributions to streamflow (base flow) followed recharge closely. However, in areas of significant groundwater-level decline, base flow is reduced. Groundwater pumping had the greatest effect on water levels, followed by irrigation enhanced recharge. Commingling was a larger factor in structurally complex upland areas where hydraulic-head gradients are naturally high. Groundwater pumping has increased substantially over the past 40–50 years; this increase resulted in declining water levels at depth and decreased base flows over much of the study area. The effects of pumping are mitigated somewhat by the increase of surface-water irrigation, especially in the shallow Overburden unit, and commingling wells in some areas. During dry to average years, groundwater pumping causes a net loss of groundwater in storage and current condition (2000–2007) groundwater pumping exceeds recharge in all but the wettest of years.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗