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USGS2022

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes: Science to inform management practices for protecting the health and integrity of wildlife populations from adverse effects: GLRI action plan I, focus area 1, goal 5

Executive Summary: Under Action Plan I (2010-2014) of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), Federal and Academic partners began an investigation of the presence and distribution of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes and potential impacts on fish and wildlife. The term CECs is applied to a broad range of chemicals that are currently in use but for which we currently lack good understanding of whether fish, wildlife, or humans are being exposed and/or whether negative health or environmental effects are expected if exposure occurs. Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, flame retardants, many current use pesticides, and poly- and perfluorinated chemicals are some well-known groups of CECs, but there is no definitive or comprehensive list that can be used to support the management of CECs to reduce impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem. Four overarching goals were identified for this collaborative investigation: 1. Evaluate the sources, occurrence, and distribution of CECs across the Great Lakes Basin. 2. Examine associations between the distribution of CECs and land-use patterns. 3. Review both scientific literature and field-generated data to determine the potential for CECs to cause adverse effects on Great Lakes fish and wildlife populations. 4. Develop efficient strategies to survey and/or monitor for threats that CECs may pose in order to take effective management actions before those threats evolve into large scale impacts on Great Lakes ecosystems or the services they provide. Achievement of these goals ensures progress towards Focus Area 1: Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern from GLRI Action Plan I, Goal 5: “ The health and integrity of wildlife populations and habitat are protected from adverse chemical and biological effects associated with the presence of toxic substances in the Great Lakes Basin ”. This large-scale research effort was comprised of individual and collaborative projects from multiple federal agencies and academic institutions, involving over 85 investigators, and overseen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5, Great Lakes National Program Office. Partners include the United States Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Saint Cloud State University, the U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Key findings: 1. Contaminants of emerging concern were found throughout the monitored Great Lakes tributaries, but types and concentrations vary in association with regional land use. CECs were detected in nearly all samples collected. The type and concentration of the specific contaminants detected varied considerably among field sites and in association with land use type, such as urban, agricultural, wetland, 2 or forest. Contaminants were detected in the water column, sediment, and tissues of all species surveyed in the current work (mussels, aquatic insects, fish, and insect-eating birds). 2. There were over 20 contaminants for which CEC concentrations approached or exceeded those reported to cause toxicity in laboratory experiments. This was based on detection in water, sediments and or biota at one or more field sites. These contaminants represent compounds that warrant further investigation and monitoring with respect to potential impacts in certain areas of the Great Lakes basin. Based on the present investigation, compounds of greatest concern include: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, associated with oil-based products and combustion of organic matter; atrazine, an herbicide; dichlorvos, an insecticide; and ibuprofen and venlafaxine, both pharmaceuticals. 3. Results suggest that mixtures of CECs presently found in most Great Lakes tributary locations surveyed may elicit subtle biological effects, but likely are not, alone, causing obvious detriment to current communities of fish and wildlife. CECs detected in the Great Lakes were associated with subtle biological effects like changes in gene expression, altered circulating glucose, etc. in both wild-caught and laboratory-reared organisms. These effects were generally not indicative of reproductive failure or mortality. However, the effects may have more serious implications when combined with other sources of stress like habitat degradation, changing climate conditions, and competition with invasive species. Due to limited historical data, it is unknown whether severe CEC-related impacts have already affected aquatic communities in waterbodies that have received long-term inputs of these contaminants. Likewise, under Action Plan I, biological effects were not necessarily evaluated at the sites where CEC concentrations exceeding laboratory toxicity thresholds were detected. As a result, strategic, ongoing surveillance and monitoring of CECs is warranted. This collaborative investigation resulted in new tools, approaches, and data that can be used to inform and support the management of CECs to reduce their impacts on Great Lakes natural resources. The following products of this research effort are available through https://communities.geoplatform.gov/glri/ or by contacting the investigators (see technical chapters found in Appendices A-F): 1. Database of CEC occurrence and concentrations in US tributary streams. The database includes CEC detections in water, sediment, and fish and wildlife tissues, and represents the most comprehensive survey of CECs in the Great Lakes Region. 2. Synopses of results and key findings. Integrated summaries of results, conclusions, and management implications of the CEC research are available through reports, topical fact sheets, and presentations. 3. Technical publications: This collaborative research effort has resulted in over 50 peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and data releases that can be of use to resource managers, the scientific community, and members of the public. 4. Innovative tools. Innovative monitoring devices, sampling equipment, conceptual frameworks, and software applications were developed over the course of this 3 research. These tools are transferable to stakeholders via internet accessibility or via specifications, instructions, and demonstration detailed in technical publications. Hypotheses to guide CECs research under Action Plan II. Findings from 2010-2014 were used to guide further research in 2015-2018 for basin-wide surveillance of CECs and for sites warranting further study of potential biological impacts of CECs. Additional surveillance included both evaluation of additional classes of contaminants and expanded lists for chemical classes shown to be of greatest concern. Mixtures of some of the most frequently detected contaminants were also tested in laboratory studies to understand whether long term exposures to multiple contaminants may result in effects not evident from uncontrolled, short-term field experiments.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2001

Water-quality assessment within a drainage control district in southeastern Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began an extensive ground- and surface-water quality study in July 1989 to define the baseline water quality within a southeastern Florida drainage district and to develop a data base for future water-resource planning and management. Results were published in a USGS report (Lietz, 1996), comparing ground- and surface-water quality data (1989-94) to the Florida Department of Environmental Regulation Class I drinking-water standards. This Fact Sheet presents an additional 4 years of water-quality data and summarizes water-quality trends over the entire 10-year sampling period (1989-98) for selected sites and constituents.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2025

Decision-support modeling and research priorities for establishing baseline conditions for outstandingly remarkable values, Obed Wild and Scenic River, Tennessee

The Obed River is the last undammed river in Tennessee. The Obed Wild and Scenic River is managed by the National Park Service and covers a protected area of the Obed River headwaters (including four contributing tributaries). The Obed Wild and Scenic River supports a unique ecosystem with eight federally listed species. The National Park Service is responsible for preserving the baseline free-flowing condition of the river and associated outstandingly remarkable values (ORVs). Previous studies have been mostly project-based with differing methods, thus complicating efforts to quantify long-term changes in environmental conditions. This report presents a science plan summarizing (1) ORV conditions, (2) recent results of a decision-support hydrologic model for OBRI, and (3) possible future research priorities. The decision-support model was created to model streamflow conditions and changes in the ORVs since park establishment in 1976 and during three additional time periods. Established baseline conditions could help with management of ORVs not dependent on streamflow.

Tennessee↗
USGS1982

Geochemical and geostatistical evaluation, Arkansas Canyon Planning Unit, Fremont and Custer Counties, Colorado

A mineral assessment of the Arkansas Canyon Planning Unit was undertaken by Barringer Resources Inc., under the terms of contract YA-553-CTO-100 with the Bureau of Land Management, Colorado State Office. The study was based on a geochemical-geostatistical survey in which 700 stream sediment samples were collected and analyzed for 25 elements. Geochemical results were interpreted by statistical processing which included factor, discriminant, multiple regression and characteristic analysis. The major deposit types evaluated were massive sulfide-base metal, sedimentary and magmatic uranium, thorium vein, magmatic segregation, and carbonatite related deposits. Results of the single element data and multivariate geostatistical analysis indicate that limited potential exists for base metal mineralization near the Horseshoe, El Plomo, and Green Mountain Mines. Thirty areas are considered to be anomalous with regard to one or more of the geochemical parameters evaluated during this study. The evaluation of carbonatite related mineralization was restricted due to the lack of geochemical data specific to this environment.

Colorado↗
USGS1985

Cost effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in Pennsylvania

This report documents a cost-effectiveness study of the stream-gaging program in Pennsylvania. Data uses and funding were identified for 223 continuous-record stream gages operated in 1983; four are planned for discontinuance at the close of water-year 1985; two are suggested for conversion, at the beginning of the 1985 water year, for the collection of only continuous stage records. Two of 11 special-purpose short-term gages are recommended for continuation when the supporting project ends; eight of these gages are to be discontinued and the other will be converted to a partial-record type. Current operation costs for the 212 stations recommended for continued operation is $1,199,000 per year in 1983. The average standard error of estimation for instantaneous streamflow is 15.2%. An overall average standard error of 9.8% could be attained on a budget of $1,271,000, which is 6% greater than the 1983 budget, by adopted cost-effective stream-gaging operations. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

Development and application of an empirical dune growth model for evaluating barrier island recovery from storms

Coastal zone managers require models that predict barrier island change on decadal time scales to estimate coastal vulnerability, and plan habitat restoration and coastal protection projects. To meet these needs, methods must be available for predicting dune recovery as well as dune erosion. In the present study, an empirical dune growth model (EDGR) was developed to predict the evolution of the primary foredune of a barrier island. Within EDGR, an island is represented as a sum of Gaussian shape functions representing dunes, berms, and the underlying island form. The model evolves the foredune based on estimated terminal dune height and location inputs. EDGR was assessed against observed dune evolution along the western end of Dauphin Island, Alabama over the 10 years following Hurricane Katrina (2005). The root mean square error with EDGR (ranging from 0.18 to 0.74 m over the model domain) was reduced compared to an alternate no-change model (0.69–0.96 m). Hindcasting with EDGR also supports the study of dune evolution processes. At Dauphin Island, results suggest that a low-lying portion of the site was dominated by overwash for ~5 years after Katrina, before approaching their terminal height and becoming growth-limited after 2010. EDGR’s computational efficiency allows dune evolution to be rapidly predicted and enables ensemble predictions to constrain the uncertainty that may result if terminal dune characteristics are unknown. In addition, EDGR can be coupled with an external model for estimating dune erosion and/or the long-term evolution of other subaerial features to allow decadal-scale prediction of barrier island evolution.

Alabama↗
USGS2015

Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes ( n = 42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval = 0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities ( n = 5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2012

Science summary in support of Manatee Protection Area (MPA) design in Puerto Rico

The Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus), a subspecies of the West Indian manatee, is listed as endangered by the US Department of Interior. In accordance with its listing, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Caribbean Field Office (USFWS) is mandated to create one or more Manatee Protection Areas (MPAs) for Puerto Rico. Designation of these areas must comply with the legal definition of an MPA’s purpose: to prevent or reduce take of manatees (CFR 50: 44 FR 60964, Oct. 22, 1979). To meet this goal, we pursued two objectives: 1) identify areas which include the specific ecological attributes necessary to support manatee populations, and 2) identify areas where take can be reduced through approved MPA regulatory frameworks. We achieved these objectives through literature review, expert elicitation, and geospatial modeling. This report delivers to USFWS a set of nine potential MPA regions. These regions represent the spatial realization of experts’ hypotheses regarding manatee requirements and threats, and the potential to implement MPA strategies (e.g. watercraft access, speed regulations, signage and boater education). The nine regions are compared based on a number of factors, including their potential to reduce take, quality of the habitat encompassed, and total area. These maps and statistics serve as suitable starting points to select one or more MPA sites, but we recommend that the mapped attributes and threats (i.e., boating activity) of MPAs be ground-truthed to visually confirm the local presence of resources, threats, and manatees before any area is selected. Once established, the effectiveness of MPAs can be monitored and updated through processes of adaptive monitoring and management. Aerial surveys, radio tracking studies, and public surveys are all valuable tools to assess the success of an MPA. Establishing MPAs is a management action that, integrated within the species Recovery Plan, should enhance the conservation of manatees.

Cooperator Science Series↗
USGS2018

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Fire Ecology↗
USGS2021

Assessment of contaminant trends in plumes and wells and monitoring network optimization at the Badger Army Ammunition Plant, Sauk County, Wisconsin

Soil and groundwater at the Badger Army Ammunition Plant (BAAP), Sauk County, Wisconsin, were affected by several contaminants as a result of production and waste disposal practices common during its operation from 1942 to 1975. Three distinct plumes of contaminated groundwater originate on BAAP property and extend off-site, as identified by previous studies. Routine sampling of groundwater quality from a network of monitoring wells and off-site private wells has been performed since 1990, although the number of wells monitored and the monitoring frequency have varied as the approved monitoring plan was modified. During the period of monitoring from 1990 to 2018, numerous site investigations and remedial actions were conducted to address the sources of contamination, contaminated soils, and groundwater. Concentrations of contaminants reportedly decreased between 2000 and 2012 within all three plumes. Five or six contaminants of concern (COCs) were identified for each of the three plumes. An independent assessment of the contaminant plumes and of the monitoring network was conducted using groundwater-quality data collected from more than 600 wells between 2000 and 2018. In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Army Environmental Command, a consistent data aggregation and interpolation scheme was applied to derive the likely maximum groundwater plume extents in four 3-year time periods between 2000 and 2018. The plume extent was defined by the Enforcement Standard for each COC and represents the maximum concentration observed in each 3-year time period. The plume boundary analysis shows that the spatial extent of groundwater contamination decreased for most COCs during the study period. Some plume boundaries are not well delineated by the existing monitoring network, particularly the downgradient edge of the Propellant Burning Ground plume. Maps identify the plume boundary in each time period, the sampling well network used to delineate the plume, and wells that were sampled in the 2010–12 period but not sampled in the 2015–18 period. A series of statistical analyses using the Monitoring and Remediation Optimization System, version 3.0, program were applied to the available COC concentration data for two distinct periods, 2000 to 2012 and 2013 to 2018, with the break between periods coinciding with changes to the monitoring network in 2013. Trends in the concentration of COCs in individual wells varied, although generally more wells had decreasing than had increasing concentrations for most COCs in both time periods. The exceptions were ethyl ether in the 2004–12 period and 2,6-dinitrotoluene in the 2013–18 period, for which more wells had an increasing trend. Spatial moment analysis of concentration data from the well network was used to assess the stability of each plume for the COCs. During the 2000–12 period, most of the contaminant plumes for which data were sufficient to complete the analysis were either decreasing or stable in mass and size. The exceptions were carbon tetrachloride (associated solely with the Propellant Burning Ground plume) and 2,4-dinitrotoluene and 2,6-dinitrotoluene (in the Deterrent Burning Ground plume), which showed an increasing trend in mass. No COCs showed an increasing trend in plume mass in the 2013–18 period. Some wells with increasing trends in concentration or with concentrations greater than the enforcement standard are near the tail of a plume, where increased monitoring may be of value to better define future plume boundaries. A spatial optimization analysis covering the 2013–18 period identified six wells that provided information redundant to that from other wells. A temporal optimization analysis identified optimal sampling frequencies for 125 wells. Remedial actions directed at the Propellant Burning Ground plume coincided with a general decrease in plume mass and size, although in specific areas and depths, the plume size for specific contaminants may still be increasing.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Comparing DESIS hyperspectral and Landsat 10 simulated superspectral data for crop type classification in California's Central Valley

To advance crop type mapping in support of global food and water security, this study compared three spectral configurations: (A) the full 60-band DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) hyperspectral narrowband (HNB) dataset, (B) a 14-band subset of DESIS-derived HNBs aligned with the planned Landsat 10 (formerly Landsat Next) spectral configuration (400–1000 nm), and (C) DESIS-based simulations of Landsat 10 superspectral broadbands. The analysis was conducted in California’s Central Valley, hereafter referred to as “the Central Valley”, during the peak growing month of August. DESIS imagery from August 2021, 2022, and 2023 was used sequentially for model development, testing, and independent validation. Over these three years, DESIS provided extensive hyperspectral coverage of much of the 4 million hectares in the Central Valley’s. Analyses were performed on Google Earth Engine using two pixel-based supervised classifiers, Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), to differentiate three major crop classes: row crops, grapes and tree crops, and winter wheat/fallow/other. The highest overall accuracy (86%) was achieved using SVM in combination with either the full DESIS hyperspectral dataset or the 14 DESIS narrowbands corresponding to Landsat 10. This finding aligns with earlier studies showing a small number of strategically positioned narrowbands can be optimal for crop type classification. Use of the narrowband datasets resulted in substantially higher accuracy (overall accuracy of 86%) compared to the simulated Landsat 10 broadbands (overall accuracy of 75%), supporting previous studies highlighting the utility of narrowbands. Despite the high accuracy using August imagery, the study indicates more granular crop type classification will require multi-temporal observations spanning the full phenological cycle (June–October), especially for a large number of crop classes. Acquiring task-based hyperspectral imagery over such large areas throughout the growing season remains operationally challenging. In contrast, Landsat 10 superspectral imagery could provide routine coverage across seasons and years that is practical and scalable for future large area crop type mapping and agricultural monitoring.

California↗
USGS1988

Land cover mapping of the upper Kuskokwim Resource Managment Area using LANDSAT and a digital data base approach

Digital land cover and terrain data for the Upper Kuskokwim Resource Hanagement Area (UKRMA) were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation Systems Field Office, Anchorage, Alaska for the Bureau of Land Management. These and other environmental data, were incorporated into a digital data base to assist in the management and planning of the UKRMA. The digital data base includes land cover classifications, elevation, slope, and aspect data centering on the UKRMA boundaries. The data are stored on computer compatible tapes at a 50-m pixel size. Additional digital data in the data base include: (a) summer and winter Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data registered to a 50-m Universal Transverse Mercator grid; (b) elevation, slope, aspect, and solar illumination data; (c) soils and surficial geology; and (e) study area boundary. The classification of Landsat MSS data resulted in seven major classes and 24 subclasses. Major classes include: forest, shrubland, dwarf scrub, herbaceous, barren, water, and other. The final data base will be used by resource personnel for management and planning within the UKRMA.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Marshes to mudflats—Effects of sea-level rise on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest

Summary In the Pacific Northwest, coastal wetlands support a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries and flood protection. The tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays of coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years. Our study examined the effects of sea-level rise on nine tidal marshes in Washington and Oregon between 2012 and 2015, with the goal of providing scientific data to support future coastal planning and conservation. We compiled physical and biological data, including coastal topography, tidal inundation, vegetation structure, as well as recent and historical sediment accretion rates, to assess and model how sea-level rise may alter these ecosystems in the future. Multiple factors, including initial elevation, marsh productivity, sediment availability, and rates of sea-level rise, affected marsh persistence. Under a low sea-level rise scenario, all marshes remained vegetated with little change in the present configuration of communities of marsh plants or gradually increased proportions of middle-, high-, or transition-elevation zones of marsh vegetation. However, at most sites, mid sea-level rise projections led to loss of habitat of middle and high marshes and a gain of low marshes. Under a high sea-level rise scenario, marshes at most sites eventually converted to intertidal mudflats. Two sites (Grays Harbor and Willapa) seemed to have the most resilience to a high rate of rise in sea-level, persisting as low marsh until at least 2110. Our main model finding is that most tidal marsh study sites are resilient to sea-level rise over the next 50–70 years, but that sea-level rise will eventually outpace marsh accretion and drown most habitats of high and middle marshes by 2110.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2008

Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet). Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads. In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years. A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly generated future duration of the current wet period. On the basis of the simulations, and assuming ice-free conditions and calm wind, the Devils Lake flood elevation for an annualized flood risk of 1 percent (analogous to a “100-year” riverine flood) was estimated to be 1,454.6 feet for a 10-year time horizon (2008­­­–17). Therefore, without adjusting for wind or ice, a residence near Devils Lake at elevation 1,454.6 feet has the same chance of being flooded sometime during the next 10 years as a residence at the edge of the 100-year flood plain along a river. Adjusting for the effects of wind or ice, which will increase the flood elevations for many locations near the lakes, was not within the scope of this study.

North Dakota↗
USGS2007

A Science Plan for a Comprehensive Regional Assessment of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Aquifer System in Maryland

The Maryland Coastal Plain region is, at present, largely dependent upon ground water for its water supply. Decades of increasing pumpage have caused ground-water levels in parts of the Maryland Coastal Plain to decline by as much as 2 feet per year in some areas of southern Maryland. Continued declines at this rate could affect the long-term sustainability of ground-water resources in Maryland's heavily populated Coastal Plain communities and the agricultural industry of the Eastern Shore. In response to a recommendation in 2004 by the Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources, the Maryland Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a science plan for a comprehensive assessment that will provide new scientific information and new data management and analysis tools for the State to use in allocating ground water in the Coastal Plain. The comprehensive assessment has five goals aimed at improving the current information and tools used to understand the resource potential of the aquifer system: (1) document the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system in the Maryland Coastal Plain and appropriate areas of adjacent states; (2) conduct detailed studies of the regional ground-water-flow system and water budget for the aquifer system; (3) improve documentation of patterns of water quality in all Coastal Plain aquifers, including the distribution of saltwater; (4) enhance ground-water-level, streamflow, and water-quality-monitoring networks in the Maryland Coastal Plain; and (5) develop science-based tools to facilitate sound management of the ground-water resources in the Maryland Coastal Plain. The assessment, as designed, will be conducted in three phases and if fully implemented, is expected to take 7 to 8 years to complete. Phase I, which was initiated in January 2006, is an effort to assemble all the information and investigation tools needed to do a more comprehensive assessment of the aquifer system. The work will include updating the hydrogeologic framework, developing a Geographic Information System-based aquifer information system, refinement of water-use information, assessment of existing water-quality data, and development of detailed plans for ground-water-flow and management models. Phase II is an intensive study phase during which a regional ground-water-flow model will be developed and calibrated for the entire region of Maryland in the Atlantic Coastal Plain as well as appropriate areas of Delaware and Virginia. The model will be used to simulate flow and water levels in the aquifer system and to study the water budget of the system. The model analysis will be based on published information but will be supplemented with field investigations of recharge and leakage in the aquifer system. Localized and finely discretized ground-water-flow models that are embedded in the regional model will be developed for selected areas of heavy withdrawals. Other modeling studies will be conducted to better understand flow in the unconfined parts of the aquifer system and to support the recharge studies. Phase II will also include selected water-quality studies and a study to determine how hydrologic and water-quality-monitoring networks need to be enhanced to appropriately assess the sustainability of the Coastal Plain aquifer system. Phase III will be largely devoted to the development and application of a ground-water optimization model. This model will be linked to the ground-water-flow model to create a model package that can be used to test different water-management scenarios. The management criteria that will be used to develop these scenarios will be determined in consultation with a variety of state and local stakeholders and policy makers in Phases I and II of the assessment. The development of the aquifer information system is a key component of the assessment. The system will store all relevant aquifer data

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Carpinteria Coastal Processes Study, 2005-2007: Final report

The United States Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), conducted a two-year study of the beach and nearshore coastal processes for the City of Carpinteria and adjacent beaches. The work was performed in response to and worked directly with the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Project Management Plan (PMP) for the City of Carpinteria: * Carpinteria Shoreline, Santa Barbara County, California PMP (June 2003) www.spl.usace.army.mil/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=487&Itemid=31 The City of Carpinteria has experienced significant erosion and storm damage over the last decade (Figure 1.1). A USACE reconnaissance survey has shown shoreline retreat rates that approach 2 m/yr in some locations. The goals of this project are to analyze historical trends/changes in the beach and nearshore environment, document local wave and tidal currents, and assess current beach and nearshore conditions in terms of grain size, beach size and shape, seasonal changes, and nearshore bathymetry. In summary, this work serves to quantify sediment sources, transport and sinks throughout the study area to support USACE and the City of Carpinteria coastal management activities.

California↗
USGS2012

Method for estimating potential wetland extent by utilizing streamflow statistics and flood-inundation mapping techniques: Pilot study for land along the Wabash River near Terre Haute, Indiana

Potential wetland extents were estimated for a 14-mile reach of the Wabash River near Terre Haute, Indiana. This pilot study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The study showed that potential wetland extents can be estimated by analyzing streamflow statistics with the available streamgage data, calculating the approximate water-surface elevation along the river, and generating maps by use of flood-inundation mapping techniques. Planning successful restorations for Wetland Reserve Program (WRP) easements requires a determination of areas that show evidence of being in a zone prone to sustained or frequent flooding. Zone determinations of this type are used by WRP planners to define the actively inundated area and make decisions on restoration-practice installation. According to WRP planning guidelines, a site needs to show evidence of being in an "inundation zone" that is prone to sustained or frequent flooding for a period of 7 consecutive days at least once every 2 years on average in order to meet the planning criteria for determining a wetland for a restoration in agricultural land. By calculating the annual highest 7-consecutive-day mean discharge with a 2-year recurrence interval (7MQ2) at a streamgage on the basis of available streamflow data, one can determine the water-surface elevation corresponding to the calculated flow that defines the estimated inundation zone along the river. By using the estimated water-surface elevation ("inundation elevation") along the river, an approximate extent of potential wetland for a restoration in agricultural land can be mapped. As part of the pilot study, a set of maps representing the estimated potential wetland extents was generated in a geographic information system (GIS) application by combining (1) a digital water-surface plane representing the surface of inundation elevation that sloped in the downstream direction of flow and (2) land-surface elevation data. These map products from the pilot study will aid the NRCS and its partners with the onsite inundation-zone verification in agricultural land for a potential restoration and will assist in determining at what elevation to plant hardwood trees for increased survivability on ground above frequently flooded terraces.

Indiana↗
USGS2022

Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan

Anthropogenic climate change during the 21st century presents a significant challenge to the protection of cultural resources (CRs) on federal lands that encompass ∼ 28% of the U.S. In particular, CRs on this land base may be adversely affected by a wide range of climate-change hazards, including damage by sea-level rise, enhanced deterioration by increasing temperature and precipitation, and destruction by more-frequent and severe wildfire. Most current measures to manage the impacts of hazards on CRs use vulnerability assessments, but because these require that all CRs be treated as having an equal chance of being affected by climate-change hazards (i.e., equal exposure) across large landscapes, the cost and resources required for such analyses are overwhelming to land management agencies. Projections of changes in many hazards, however, show that the probability of hazard occurrence will be unevenly distributed on the landscape. Incorporating this information into a risk assessment thus allows CR managers to prioritize their efforts on assessing impacts to CRs in those areas where the probability of the hazard is greatest, thus increasing efficiency. We provide several heuristic examples of implementing the first part of a CR risk assessment by using 21st-century projections of several hazards most likely to adversely affect CRs on nine National Forests (NFs) managed by the U.S. Forest Service in northern Idaho and Montana. Overlaying the projected distribution of hazards on these NFs with the distribution of CRs identifies CR exposure that, with information on their vulnerability, is required to determine risk. Additional policy and field studies will be needed to determine how to prioritize those CRs that are most at risk according to their significance as well as identify how impacts can be reduced and managed through adaptation planning and implementation. Adaptation will follow the iterative risk management process particularly by improving projection resolution. Finer scale, process-based modeling informed by the highest priority CRs would also provide a means to assess various adaptation options that might change the estimated risk and increase the odds of CRs being as little affected as possible.

Idaho, Montana↗