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Regional chloride distribution in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

The aquifers of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain are the principal source of water supply for the region’s nearly 20 million residents. Water quality and water levels in the aquifers, and maintenance of streamflow, are of concern because of the use of this natural resource for water supply and because of the possible effects of climate change and changes in land use on groundwater. The long-term sustainability of this natural resource is a concern at the local community scale, as well as at a regional scale, across state boundaries. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a regional assessment of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifers. An important part of this assessment is a regional interpretation of the extent of saltwater and the proximity of saltwater to fresh-groundwater resources and includes samples and published interpretations of chloride concentrations newly available since the last regional chloride assessment in 1989. This updated assessment also includes consideration of chloride samples and refined interpretations that stem from the 1994 discovery of the buried 35 million year old Chesapeake Bay impact structure that has substantially altered the understanding of the hydrogeologic framework and saltwater distribution in eastern Virginia. In this study, the regional area of concern for the chloride samples and interpretations extends from the Fall Line in the west to the outer edge of the Continental Shelf in the east and from the eastern tip of Long Island in the north to about halfway down the North Carolina coast in the south. Discussions of chloride distribution are presented for each of the 10 regional aquifer layers of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, including the offshore extents. Maps of interpreted lines of equal concentration or isochlors were manually prepared for nine of the regional aquifers; a map was not prepared for the surficial regional aquifer. The isochlor interpretations include the offshore extent of the nine regional aquifers and are presented on a 1:2,000,000 scale base map. Vertically, the chloride samples and interpretations range from deepest (oldest) to shallowest (youngest)—Potomac-Patuxent, Potomac-Patapsco, Magothy, Matawan, Monmouth-Mount Laurel, Aquia, Piney Point, Lower Chesapeake, and Upper Chesapeake regional aquifers. The approach of this study maximizes the overall density of chloride information and data by assessing relevant published interpretations, all USGS chloride samples, and all relevant offshore samples in one comprehensive interpretation. Published isochlors, where they were interpreted by regional aquifer, were used as much as possible for this regional isochlor assessment. Publication dates for the isochlors used range from 1982 to 2015, and the scales for the isochlors range from local (county or municipality) to state (sub-regional) to regional. The USGS National Water Information System database provided well sample data for the parts of aquifers that are mainly beneath the land areas and yielded 37,517 water-quality records for 1903 through 2011. Published data reports from four phases of research-related offshore coring (1976, 1993, 1997, 2009) were the main source of water-quality data for the parts of aquifers from the shoreline to the outer edge of the Continental Shelf and yielded samples from multiple depths of each of 13 cores. This study also used interpretations and offshore core data from the last regional chloride assessment (1989) which, in addition to 7 offshore cores, included water-quality data from about 500 wells, and borehole geophysics interpretations from a subset of 11 wells. All published information and data that were used in this study were considered time independent and did not assess the published interpretations or data for temporal trends. The approach used here examined only published interpretations and available chloride data, and did not directly use supplemental techniques that can provide insight into the distribution of saltwater, such as geochemical characterization, borehole geophysical information, and geochronology. Isochlor maps for this study are limited to manual interpretations of the 250-milligram per liter (mg/L) and 10,000-mg/L boundaries developed for 9 of the 10 regional aquifers that constitute the regional hydrogeologic framework of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain. For a given aquifer, the approach was to initially consider published isochlor interpretations, where available, then to modify the published interpretations, if necessary, to the extent indicated by the well and core samples. The final step was to interpolate isochlors to the full extent of each aquifer layer in areas with sufficient samples or cited interpretations, or to extrapolate isochlors in areas with no samples or where samples were sparse. The principal limitation of this study is that, because of its regional extent, data and information density can vary greatly, and thus confidence in interpretations can vary widely for onshore and offshore areas across the study area. In areas of sparse data, some samples of elevated chloride could be misinterpreted as being part of a regional elevated chloride trend, and in other cases, an elevated concentration could be misinterpreted as being of only local importance. The interpretive work of this study was applied to a 1:2,000,000 scale base map. Locations of isochlors, wells, cores, political boundaries, and shorelines are meant to be considered approximate. The isochlors presented in this study were manually interpreted for each aquifer unit as a conceptual representation of an equal concentration line approximately in the middle of an aquifer’s thickness. Differences in chloride concentration lines between the top and bottom of an aquifer could be substantial, especially for the thick parts of aquifers, but that information is not presented in this regional assessment. Although additional offshore chloride data are available compared to 27 years ago (1989), the offshore information remains sparse, resulting in less confidence in the offshore interpretations than in the onshore interpretations. Regionally, the 250- and 10,000-mg/L isochlors tend to map progressively eastward from the deepest to the shallowest aquifers across the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system but with some exceptions. The additional data, conceptual understanding, and interpretations in the vicinity of the buried Chesapeake Bay impact structure in eastern Virginia resulted in substantial refinement of isochlors in that area. Overall, the interpretations in this study are updates of the previous regional study from 1989 but do not comprise major differences in interpretation and do not indicate regional movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface since then.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) needs a comprehensive method to evaluate the human health and environmental effects of alternative agricultural pest management strategies. This project explored the utility of Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA) techniques for meeting this need. The project objectives were to produce models for environmental impact analysis, improve communications, identify research needs and data requirements, and demonstrate a process for resolving conflicts. The project was structured around the construction (in an initial 2 1/2-day workshop) and examination (in a second 2 1/2-day workshop) of a simulation model of a corn agroecosystem. The model conceptualized at the first workshop simulates the effect of corn agrecosystem decisions on crop production, economic returns, and environmental indicators. The model is composed of five interacting submodels: 1) a Production Strategies submodel which makes decisions concerning tillage, planting, fertilizer and pesticide applications, and harvest; 2) a Hydrology/Chemical Transport submodel which represents soil hydrology, erosion, and concentrations of fertilizers and pesticides in the soil, runoff, surface waters, and percolation; 3) a Vegetation submodel which simulates growth of agricultural crops (corns and soybeans) and weeds; 4) a Pests submodel which calculates pest population levels and resulting crop damage; and 5) an Environmental Effects submodel which calculates indicators of potential fish kills, human health effects, and wildlife habitat. The most persistent data gaps encountered in quantifying the model were coefficients to relate environmental consequences to alternative pest management strategies. While the model developed in the project is not yet accurate enough to be used for real-world decisions about the use of pesticides on corn, it does contain the basic structure upon which such a model could be built. More importantly at this stage of development, the project has shown that very complex systems can be modeled in short periods of time and that the process of building such models increases understanding among disciplinary specialists and between diverse institutional interests. This process can be useful to EPA as the agency cooperates with other institutions to meet its responsibilities in less costly ways. Activities at the second 2 1/2-day workshop included a review of the model, incorporation of necessary corrections, simulation of policy scenarios, and examination of techniques to address remaining institutional conflicts. Participants were divided into three groups representing environmental, production or industry, and regulatory interests. Each group developed scenarios that would be most appealing to their particular interest and the scenarios were simulated by the agroecosystem computer model. Negotiators from each of the interest groups decided whether a hypothetical herbicide should be relabeled and if certain restrictions should be imposed on its use. Other participants functioned as experts and consultants on caucus teams. A solution to the hypothetical problem was successfully negotiated. Workshop participants and project staff agreed that the model and processes developed during the project should be used in training students, extension specialists, farmers, researchers, and chemical producers in collaborative problem solving methods. More productive research can be planned, and more realistic models of complex systems can be built in this way. More importantly, greater trust of decisionmakers in computer models, better understanding by technical experts about disciplines other than their own, and improved cooperation between institutional interests can be achieved. This trust, understanding, and cooperation are critical ingredients in solving problems that are too complex to be resolved by independent disciplinary activity and unilateral decision authority.

Report↗

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations. A statistical change-factor approach was used to construct future climate time series that were used in the precipitation-runoff model to compute time series of future streamflows and reservoir water levels. Monthly change factors were computed by determining differences or fractional changes between baseline historical climate time series and future climate time series consisting of outputs from selected global climate models that were included in the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Eight sets of change factors were determined on the basis of outputs from four global climate models, each of which was run under two greenhouse-gas scenarios (the “A1b” and “A2” scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th assessment). The 4 global climate models whose data were used in this study were selected to represent a wide range of potential climate outcomes as compared to the entire range of potential climate outcomes associated with the 16 global climate models represented in the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Future land-cover and water-use data were estimated for use in the level-2 precipitation-runoff simulations to account for development-driven changes in land cover and water use. Future land-cover characteristics were estimated for selected future years based on population projections and zoning plans for communities in the basin. Future water-use data for major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were estimated from current per capita water use, population projections for 2035, and population projections for 2090 assuming full build-out. A statistical change-factor-based approach was used to estimate future water-use characteristics by major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities on the basis of reference-period historical water uses. Annual change factors that were determined for future years other than 2035 and 2090 (when the change factors could be explicitly computed) were estimated by interpolating or extrapolating linearly in time. Water uses by entities other than major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were assumed to remain unchanged because of uncertainty about if and (or) how they might change. Results from the level-1 simulations were analyzed primarily to facilitate evaluation of climate-driven temporal changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow and water-level characteristics, as well as in maximum and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflow and reservoir water levels. Results from the level-2 simulations were analyzed to help evaluate and contrast (relative to level-1 results) the effects of the added development-related factors on maximums and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels and duration characteristics of 7- and 30-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels. Results for 12 stream locations and 5 reservoirs in the Upper Scioto River Basin are presented primarily as a series of plots. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Ohio↗

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2004

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2004 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The study team continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). A computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was completed in spring 2005. We will use an improved version of this model to verify the accuracy of the rules using known bears and their telemetry locations in test runs. We hope to have this work complete by the end of 2005. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established mortality quotas at 4% of the minimum population estimate derived from female with COY data and no more than 30% of the 4% (1.2%) could be female bears. Simulation modeling (Harris 1984) established sustainable mortality at around 6% of the population. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris. A Wildlife Monograph has been accepted for publication and should be available by summer 2005. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine has been published (Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770). The manuscript on fish consumption rates was also accepted and is published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493-501. Both can be found on the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. We began a new study in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black ( Ursus americanus ) bears. We will employ a new form of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of our first yea r’s field season are summarized in this report. Whitebark pine (WBP) has been identified as one of the import ant fall foods of the Yellowstone grizzly bear. Previous efforts to map the distribution of WBP were for the Cumulative Effects Model. Consequently the only coverage of WBP distribution was for the grizzly bear Recovery Zone. We were successful in getting financial support through the U.S. Geological Survey Land Remote Sensing Program and Interdisciplinary Science Support Activities Project to create an ecosystem-wide map of the distribution of WBP. The results of that project are reported in Appendix A. The study team annually estimates WBP cone production on a series of transects. That information is reported annually in our reports. Concern over the long-term health of WBP prompted us to investigate the usefulness of cone counts as an indirect index of WBP health. Results of this analysis (Appendix B) indicated that cone production is too variable to serve this purpose. Consequently, we partnered with several 2 other agencies and embarked on a program to develop a long-term monitoring program directed specifically at WBP health in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Our team (Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group) was successful in obtaining funds to develop and implement a WBP health monitoring program. Results of our first years work are presented in Appendix C. We also successfully competed for funds in 2005 and will continue to collect information on WBP health. Army cutworm moths ( Euxoa auxiliaris ) are also a very important food for a segment of the GYE grizzly bear population. Hillary Robison, graduate student at University of Nevada, Reno, is nearing completion of her program. In this report, we post her annual work summary, and abstracts of her most recently submitted publications. These include one on the levels of pesticides in cutworm moths and their potential affect on grizzly bears (Appendix D), a spatial analysis to identify army cutworm moth habitat (Appendix E), and the results of a preliminary analysis of pollen grains on the mouth parts of moths (Appendix F) to help identify which plant species are commonly fed upon. Other study team members have also been working on various aspects of grizzly bear science. Study team member Kerry Gunther hosted a workshop on habituated grizzly bears in North America. A copy of the abstract of that report can be found in Appendix G. Additionally, Kerry Gunther and Doug Smith, wolf researcher in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), reported on the interactions between gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) and female grizzly bears with young. They report that of 15 interactions between these 2 carnivores, 8 involve d females with COY. They observed 2 incidents where cubs were killed by wolves at ungulate carcasses (Appendix H). The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a ), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Effect of membrane filtration artifacts on dissolved trace element concentrations

Among environment scientists, the current and almost universally accepted definition of dissolved constituents is an operational one-only those materials which pass through a 0.45-μm membrane filter are considered to be dissolved. Detailed laboratory and field studies on Fe and Al indicate that a number of factors associated with filtration, other than just pore size, can substantially alter “dissolved” trace element concentrations; these include: filter type, filter diameter, filtration method, volume of sample processed, suspended sediment concentration, suspended sediment grain-size distribution, concentration of colloids and colloidally-associated trace elements and concentration of organic matter. As such, reported filtered-water concentrations employing the same pore size filter may not be equal. Filtration artifacts may lead to the production of chemical data that indicate seasonal or annual “dissolved” chemical trends which do not reflect actual environmental conditions. Further, the development of worldwide averages for various dissolved chemical constituents, the quantification of geochemical cycles, and the determination of short- or long-term environmental chemical trends may be subject to substantial errors, due to filtration artifacts, when data from the same or multiple sources are combined. Finally, filtration effects could have a substantial impact on various regulatory requirements.

Georgia↗

A new methodology for the quantitative visualization of coherent flow structures in alluvial channels using multibeam echo-sounding (MBES)

In order to investigate the interactions between turbulence and suspended sediment transport in natural aqueous environments, we ideally require a technique that allows simultaneous measurement of fluid velocity and sediment concentration for the whole flow field. Here, we report on development of a methodology using the water column acoustic backscatter signal from a multibeam echo sounder to simultaneously quantify flow velocities and sediment concentrations. The application of this new technique is illustrated with reference to flow over the leeside of an alluvial sand dune, which allows, for the first time in a field study, quantitative visualization of large-scale, whole flow field, turbulent coherent flow structures associated with the dune leeside that are responsible for suspending bed sediment. This methodology holds great potential for use in a wide range of aqueous geophysical flows.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Prospects for mineral resource assessments on public lands: Proceedings of the Leesburg workshop

Modern geological surveys pursue a wide spectrum of research activities in the earth sciences. From the beginning, however, one of the core tasks of any national geological survey has been the assessment and evaluation of its nation's mineral and fuel resources. The methods by which such assessments are carried out have become more sophisticated over time, in keeping with advancing geoscientific knowledge and the development and application of new concepts and technologies. However, the basic objectives of such work have changed little, and the fundamental goal remains the construction of the best possible base of information on the nature, distribution and economic potential of the resources within a nation's landmass and its offshore jurisdictions.

Circular↗

Continuing progress toward a national assessment of water availability and use

Executive Summary The Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (Public Law 111—11) was passed into law on March 30, 2009. Subtitle F, also known as the SECURE Water Act, calls for the establishment of a “national water availability and use assessment program” within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS issued the first report on the program in 2013. Program progress over the period 2013–17 is reported herein to fulfill the requirement to inform Congress on implementation of the national water availability and use assessment program, also referred to as the USGS National Water Census (the Water Census). Much work has been accomplished during 2013–17 on producing water budgets for the nation, a goal USGS outlined in its first report on program progress to Congress. The USGS has completed three geographic focus area studies and has begun three others. Work has advanced on nationwide efforts in streamflow analysis, groundwater assessment and research, evapotranspiration studies, water use, environmental water science, and drought science. The USGS works with Federal and non-Federal agencies, universities, and other organizations to ensure that the information can be aggregated with other types of water-availability and socioeconomic information, such as data on food and energy production. The USGS has also made great strides in measures for delivering data and information on the Water Census to stakeholders and the public. Much work remains to be accomplished for the Nation to have a comprehensive, ongoing Water Census. In this report, the USGS lays out activities to be accomplished in the next 5 years (2017–22), based upon current funding levels. These include selecting new focus area studies, conducting hydrologic modeling to complete water budgets for the conterminous United States, expanding groundwater modeling efforts, mapping a national classification system for environmental water science, and developing an inventory of interbasin water transfers. All of these steps are necessary in order for the Water Census to achieve the goals outlined by Congress in the SECURE Water Act.

Circular↗

National Earthquake Information Center systems overview and integration

Overview The primary mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) is comprehensive global earthquake monitoring (M4.5 or larger) and complete seismic monitoring of the United States for all significant earthquakes (M3.0 or larger or felt). In recent years, the NEIC has assumed a more prominent role in local and regional seismic monitoring, backup capabilities, and special studies. The NEIC uses numerous scientific algorithms to produce information products for local, national, and international disaster responders; infrastructure corporations (for example, utility providers and insurers); U.S. embassies worldwide; news agencies; national and international earth science research communities; and millions of public users. To support this mission, the NEIC operates a constant service to derive numerous information products as rapidly and accurately as possible. Derived information products and data sets provide a wealth of related earthquake information and include products such as location, magnitude, maps of shaking intensity, moment tensors, phase arrivals, and loss and damage reports. These information products are automatically derived in near real-time and refined over time. Earthquake information products vary from well formatted text files, to binary files, to directories full of many files. A team of analysts, who provide constant coverage, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year, review the acquired data and automatically derived products (1) in near real-time for rapid release and (2) in the weeks following events to produce historical catalogs of global earthquakes in support of scientific research. Data and products are reviewed both in near real-time for rapid release and in the weeks following events to produce historical catalogs of global earthquakes in support of scientific research. At the present time, the NEIC publishes data for approximately 25,000 earthquakes annually. The NEIC software system that supports this service and mission comprises many subsystems. The internals of each subsystem are often complex, but the integration between all of the subsystems is well defined, standardized, and straightforward. This Open-File Report describes the systems’ integration infrastructure and how all the subsystems fit together. It provides summary views of the system as a whole, along with detailed views of the inputs, outputs, and dependencies for each subsystem. It also outlines the many shared data services that support these subsystems and applications as well as external customers. The NEIC systems-integration effort is ongoing. Additional integration steps, needed to reach our goals, are discussed. It is important to note that this document provides a brief introduction to the work of dozens of software developers and IT specialists, spanning in many cases more than a decade. References to significant amounts of supporting documentation, code, and information are supplied within.

Open-File Report↗

Proceedings of the first U.S. Geological Survey scientific information management workshop, March 21-23, 2006

In March 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) held the first Scientific Information Management (SIM) Workshop in Reston, Virginia. The workshop brought together more than 150 SIM professionals from across the organization to discuss the range and importance of SIM problems, identify common challenges and solutions, and investigate the use and value of “communities of practice” (CoP) as mechanisms to address these issues. The 3-day workshop began with presentations of SIM challenges faced by the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network and two USGS programs from geology and hydrology. These presentations were followed by a keynote address and discussion of CoP by Dr. Etienne Wenger, a pioneer and leading expert in CoP, who defined them as "groups of people who share a passion for something that they know how to do and who interact regularly to learn how to do it better." Wenger addressed the roles and characteristics of CoP, how they complement formal organizational structures, and how they can be fostered. Following this motivating overview, five panelists (including Dr. Wenger) with CoP experience in different institutional settings provided their perspectives and lessons learned. The first day closed with an open discussion on the potential intersection of SIM at the USGS with SIM challenges and the potential for CoP. The second session began the process of developing a common vocabulary for both scientific data management and CoP, and a list of eight guiding principles for information management were proposed for discussion and constructive criticism. Following this discussion, 20 live demonstrations and posters of SIM tools developed by various USGS programs and projects were presented. Two community-building sessions were held to explore the next steps in 12 specific areas: Archiving of Scientific Data and Information; Database Networks; Digital Libraries; Emerging Workforce; Field Data for Small Research Projects; Knowledge Capture; Knowledge Organization Systems and Controlled Vocabularies; Large Time Series Data Sets; Metadata; Portals and Frameworks; Preservation of Physical Collections; and Scientific Data from Monitoring Programs. In about two-thirds of these areas, initial steps to forming CoP are now underway. The final afternoon included a panel in which information professionals, managers, program coordinators, and associate directors shared their perspectives on the workshop, on ways in which the USGS could better manage its scientific information, and on the use of CoP as informal mechanisms to complement formal organizational structures. The final session focused on developing the next steps, an action plan, and a communication strategy to ensure continued development.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Vascular Plant and Vertebrate Inventory of Casa Grande Ruins National Monument

Executive Summary This report summarizes results of the first comprehensive biological inventory of Casa Grande Ruins National Monument (NM) in southern Arizona. Surveys at the monument were part of a larger effort to inventory vascular plants and vertebrates in eight National Park Service units in Arizona and New Mexico. In 2001 and 2002 we surveyed for vascular plants and vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) at Casa Grande Ruins NM to document the presence, and in some cases relative abundance, of species. By using repeatable study designs and standardized field techniques, which included quantified survey effort, we produced inventories that can serve as the basis for a biological monitoring program. Of the National Park Service units in the region, no other has experienced as much recent ecological change as Casa Grande Ruins NM. Once situated in a large and biologically diverse mesquite bosque near the perennially flowing Gila River, the monument is now a patch of sparse desert vegetation surrounded by urban and commercial development that is rapidly replacing agriculture as the dominant land use in the area. Roads, highways, and canals surround the monument. Development, and its associated impacts, has important implications for the plants and animals that live in the monument. The plant species list is small and the distribution and number of non-native plants appears to be increasing. Terrestrial vertebrates are also being impacted by the changing landscape, which is increasing the isolation of these populations from nearby natural areas and thereby reducing the number of species at the monument. These observations are alarming and are based on our review of previous studies, our research in the monument, and our knowledge of the biogeography and ecology of the Sonoran Desert. Together, these data suggest that the monument has lost a significant portion of its historic complement of species and these changes will likely intensify as urbanization continues. Despite isolation of the monument from nearby natural areas, we recorded noteworthy species or observations for all taxonomic groups: * Plants: night-blooming cereus * Amphibians: high abundance of Couch's spadefoot toads * Reptiles: high abundance of long-nosed snakes * Birds: 10 species of diurnal raptors including 4 species of falcons * Mammals: American badger This study is a first step in the process of compiling information about the biological resources of Casa Grande Ruins NM and surrounding areas. We recommend additional inventory and research studies, and we identify aspects of our effort that could be improved upon through application of new techniques or by extending the temporal (and possibly spatial) scope of our work.

Open-File Report↗

Metallogeny of the Great Basin: Crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits

The Great Basin physiographic province in the Western United States contains a diverse assortment of world-class ore deposits. It currently (2006) is the world’s second leading producer of gold, contains large silver and base metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Mo, W) deposits, a variety of other important metallic (Fe, Ni, Be, REE’s, Hg, PGE) and industrial mineral (diatomite, barite, perlite, kaolinite, gallium) resources, as well as petroleum and geothermal energy resources. Ore deposits are most numerous and largest in size in linear mineral belts with complex geology. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are in the final year of a research project initiated in the fall of 2001 to increase understanding of relations between crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits in the Great Basin. Because of its substantial past and current mineral production, this region has been the focus of numerous investigations over the past century and is the site of ongoing research by industry, academia, and state agencies. A variety of geoinformatic tools was used to organize, reinterpret, and display, in space and time, the large amounts of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic information deemed pertinent to this problem. This information, in combination with concentrated research on (1) critical aspects of the geologic history, (2) an area in northern Nevada that encompasses the major mineral belts, and (3) important mining districts and deposits, is producing new insights about the interplay between key tectonic events, hydrothermal fluid flow, and ore genesis in mineral belts. The results suggest that the Archean to Holocene history of the Great Basin was punctuated by several tectonic events that caused fluids of different origins (sea water, basinal brine, meteoric water, metamorphic water, magmatic water) to move through the crust. Basement faults reactivated during these events localized deformation, sedimentation, magmatism, and hydrothermal fluid flow in overlying rocks to form mineral belts that contain ore deposits of different types and ages that are locally superimposed (demonstrating inheritance). Fluid flow in these systems also was influenced by the distribution of permeable lithologies and paleotopographic highs and lows. Hydrothermal fluids evolved from their initial chemistries towards compositions that reflect the ƒ O 2 and ƒ S 2 buffering capacity of, and the ligands and metals present in, the rocks (±older mineralization) through which they moved. In northern Nevada, where gold deposits are relatively common, carbonaceous, pyritic strata buffered fluids of diverse origins to H 2 S-rich compositions so they could transport gold repeatedly over Paleozoic-Cenozoic time (convergent evolution). Ore formed where metal-laden fluids encountered effective physicochemical traps. Maps of Neogene basin fill and erosion surfaces identify areas where preexisting ore deposits have been progressively exposed or concealed. Comparisons with analogous terrains and deposit types in other parts of the world provide global context. The initial findings and some of the databases, geologic maps, sections, reconstructions, hydrogeologic models, topical syntheses, regional overviews, short courses, field guides, and deposit comparisons produced by project staff and associated managers, contractors, and collaborators have been presented in numerous abstracts, symposia, USGS publications, and professional journals over the last 5 years (see the extensive bibliography). Notable among these was the 2005 Geological Society of Nevada symposium in Reno, Nevada, and the 2005 Geological Society of America annual meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah, where project results were presented to audiences from around the nation and world. The final results of the project will be submitted for publication in 2007 to appropriate USGS and professional journals. A special issue of GEOSPHERE, scheduled for publication in 2007, will be devoted to the results of this project and related work. This special issue will reach an international audience and be available worldwide on the internet. Much of the research for this project has concentrated on areas that will receive the focused attention of the mining industry in the future. As such, the data and interpretations generated by this project have direct use for land-use managers in Federal, State, and local agencies. Improved hydrogeologic models developed by this project will considerably enhance ongoing and future water resource investigations in the region. The increased understanding of when, where, and how hydrothermal systems produce significant economic deposits has direct uses for mineral exploration and for future USGS mineral resource assessments in the Great Basin and other parts of the world.

Great Basin↗

Framework for ecological monitoring on lands of Alaska National Wildlife Refuges and their partners

National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska and throughout the U.S. have begun developing a spatially comprehensive monitoring program to inform management decisions, and to provide data to broader research projects. In an era of unprecedented rates of climate change, monitoring is essential to detecting, understanding, communicating and mitigating climate-change effects on refuge and other resources under the protection of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and requires monitoring results to address spatial scales broader than individual refuges. This document provides guidance for building a monitoring program for refuges in Alaska that meets refuge-specific management needs while also allowing synthesis and summary of ecological conditions at the ecoregional and statewide spatial scales.

Alaska↗

A probabilistic estimate of maximum acceleration in rock in the contiguous United States

This paper presents a probabilistic estimate of the maximum ground acceleration to be expected from earthquakes occurring in the contiguous United States. It is based primarily upon the historic seismic record which ranges from very incomplete before 1930 to moderately complete after 1960. Geologic data, primarily distribution of faults, have been employed only to a minor extent, because most such data have not been interpreted yet with earthquake hazard evaluation in mind. The map provides a preliminary estimate of the relative hazard in various parts of the country. The report provides a method for evaluating the relative importance of the many parameters and assumptions in hazard analysis. The map and methods of evaluation described reflect the current state of understanding and are intended to be useful for engineering purposes in reducing the effects of earthquakes on buildings and other structures. Studies are underway on improved methods for evaluating the relativ( earthquake hazard of different regions. Comments on this paper are invited to help guide future research and revisions of the accompanying map. The earthquake hazard in the United States has been estimated in a variety of ways since the initial effort by Ulrich (see Roberts and Ulrich, 1950). In general, the earlier maps provided an estimate of the severity of ground shaking or damage but the frequency of occurrence of the shaking or damage was not given. Ulrich's map showed the distribution of expected damage in terms of no damage (zone 0), minor damage (zone 1), moderate damage (zone 2), and major damage (zone 3). The zones were not defined further and the frequency of occurrence of damage was not suggested. Richter (1959) and Algermissen (1969) estimated the ground motion in terms of maximum Modified Mercalli intensity. Richter used the terms "occasional" and "frequent" to characterize intensity IX shaking and Algermissen included recurrence curves for various parts of the country in the paper accompanying his map. The first probabilistic hazard maps covering portions of the United States were by Milne and Davenport (1969a). Recently, Wiggins, Hirshberg and Bronowicki (1974) prepared a probabilistic map of maximum particle velocity and Modified Mercalli intensity for the entire United States. The maps are based on an analysis of the historical seismicity. In general, geological data were not incorporated into the development of the maps.

Open-File Report↗

Defining the southwestern end of the Blytheville Arch, northeastern Arkansas: Delimiting a seismic source zone in the New Madrid region

Vibroseis seismic-reflection profiles around the southwestern end of the Blytheville arch document the southwesternly extent of the arch and refine the length of a fault zone that coincides with the arch. The 74.3 km of newly interpreted profiles and previously described profiles form a network of lines across and around the southern end of the arch. The southwestern terminus of the arch is defined by the absence of significantly upwarped or extensively disrupted reflectors, which are diagnostic traits of the arch where it is well developed. The arch is 134 km long as documented here, which is only slightly longer than the length reported by previous studies. Differing opinions about the magnitude of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes could be partly explained by substantially longer seismic source zones, but this minor increase in source zone length does not reconcile the large differences in magnitude estimates of the events. If future earthquake ruptures associated with the arch are confined to areas of extensive deformation, then this well documented southwestern termination precludes a rupture substantially longer than ~134 km along the zone of seismicity that coincides with the axis of the Reelfoot rift.

Arkansas↗

Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with managers of the North Carolina Coastal Refuges Complex, Cape Romain NWR, South Carolina, and other local interested partners to assist with their long-term planning under uncertain conditions regarding sea-level rise and other global change processes. Researchers are using a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, including formal decision science for systematically analyzing management alternatives and scenario planning methods for engaging with stakeholders to explore possible futures. These approaches are aimed at helping NWR staff develop management objectives, identify and weigh potential management actions for adaptation, and generate decision-support tools and models. Outcomes and products from these efforts will aid managers as they plan for and adapt to the complex challenges facing the NWR system as changing climate and other conditions make their work increasingly more difficult.

Final Project Memorandum↗

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): User's Manual

The Modular Modeling System (MMS) is an integrated system of computer software that has been developed to provide the research and operational framework needed to support development, testing, and evaluation of physical-process algorithms and to facilitate integration of user-selected sets of algorithms into operational physical-process models. MMS uses a module library that contains modules for simulating a variety of water, energy, and biogeochemical processes. A model is created by selectively coupling the most appropriate modules from the library to create a 'suitable' model for the desired application. Where existing modules do not provide appropriate process algorithms, new modules can be developed. The MMS user's manual provides installation instructions and a detailed discussion of system concepts, module development, and model development and application using the MMS graphical user interface.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluating the sensitivity of multi-dimensional model predictions of salmon habitat to the source of remotely sensed river bathymetry

Multi-dimensional numerical models are fundamental tools for investigating biophysical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Remote sensing techniques increase the feasibility of applying such models at riverscape scales, but tests of model performance on large rivers have been limited. We evaluated the potential to develop two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models for a 1.6-km reach of a large gravel-bed river using three sources of remotely sensed river bathymetry. We estimated depth from hyperspectral image data acquired from conventional and uncrewed aircraft and multispectral satellite imagery. Our results indicated that modeled water depth errors were similar between 2D and 3D models, with depth residuals that were comparable to the uncertainty associated with the bathymetry used as input. We found good agreement between measured and modeled depth-averaged velocities generated by 2D and 3D models, while 3D models provided superior predictions of near-bed velocities. We found that optimal model performance occurred for lower flow resistance values than previously reported in the literature, possibly as a consequence of the high-resolution bathymetry used as model input. Model predictions of winter-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) spawning and rearing habitat were not sensitive to the source of bathymetric information, but bioenergetic predictions related to adult holding costs were influenced by the input bathymetry. Our results suggest that hyperspectral imagery acquired from piloted and/or uncrewed aircraft can be used to map the bathymetry of clear-flowing, relatively shallow large rivers with sufficient accuracy to support multi-dimensional flow model development; models developed from multispectral satellite imagery had more limited predictive capability.

California↗