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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Extreme drought and adaptive resource selection by a desert mammal

When animals select areas to occupy, decisions involve trade-offs between the fitness benefits of obtaining critical resources and minimizing costs of biotic and abiotic factors that constrain their use. These processes can be more dynamic and complex for species inhabiting desert environments, where highly variable spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation can create high intra- and inter-annual variability in forage conditions and water availability, and thermal constraints can differ significantly among seasons and diel periods. We examined resource selection in desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis mexicana ) in Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge, Arizona, USA, at multiple spatial and temporal scales to gain insight into how a desert mammal responds to variations in climatic conditions. We used resource selection functions to test topographic, forage, and environmental features among seasons and diel periods, and between non-drought and drought conditions at the population and home-range scale. When precipitation was average, sheep selected for topographic features that were beneficial for predator avoidance (i.e., escape terrain—steep, rugged areas with high visibility) and locations near perennial water. When drought occurred, they ranged further from preferred escape terrain and perennial water, perhaps seeking forage conditions suitable to meet their nutritional requirements. On early (April–June) and late (July–September) summer days, sheep selected for more northerly aspects and locations with lower solar radiation, and in some periods, selection for these cooler areas coincided with periods when forage covariates, proximity to perennial water, and several topographic features were uninformative in resource selection models. These choices may be necessary trade-offs, foregoing good escape terrain and foraging areas, and access to water, for improved thermoregulation. This study highlights the importance of identifying resource selection at variable spatial and temporal scales when investigating the interrelationship between species and their environment. It provides insight into the dynamics of resource selection in desert mammals, and how they respond to constraints imposed on them by their environment. This work can serve to inform strategies for managing and conserving species living in arid environments when faced with climate change.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Advancing broadscale spatial evapotranspiration modelling by incorporating sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence measurements

Evapotranspiration (ET) describes the sum of water transfer from the ground surface through soil evaporation and water loss from leaf stomata into the atmosphere − critical factors linking the global water and carbon cycles. Myriad ET models based on remote sensing data provide spatially continuous estimates of ET; however, leaf photosynthetic information is critical to ensure accurate ET estimates, which are difficult to measure from space. Remotely sensed sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a proxy of stomatal conductance activity with high performance in predicting plant transpiration, which can account for a large proportion of terrestrial and riverine ET. This study aims to improve estimates of tree water use in semi-arid to arid environments. In this study, a fixed stomatal conductance model and three SIF-driven canopy conductance (g sc ) models were applied to model potential ET (PET). The models estimated PET using the Penman-Monteith equation with: (1) a constant leaf stomatal conductance; (2) a transpiration-driven g sc model; (3) a g sc model based on electron-transfer rate and vapor pressure deficit, and a (4) Ball-Berry stomatal conductance model. A machine learning model was then applied to scale PET to actual ET (AET) using remote sensing and climate data. Accordingly, four AET models were cross-validated with in-situ measured AET at 52 sites, including 21 eddy covariance flux tower sites, and 31 sap-flow measurement sites (semi-arid and plantation area), for various plant functional types in Australia. This study demonstrated that SIF effectively captured seasonal variations of g sc , finding that AET models with SIF-driven g sc models correlated well with in-situ measured AET (R 2 = 0.64). Modelled AET with dynamic variations of g sc generated lower prediction error (0.85 mm day −1 ), while the AET model with fixed stomatal conductance tended to overestimate AET in floodplains and underestimate it in evergreen broadleaf forests, indicating using fixed stomatal conductance results in unstable performance when modelling AET. This study demonstrated that SIF-driven AET models improved broadscale estimation of ET. Our findings provide vital broadscale hydrological data to assist catchment and regional water management, particularly over unmonitored areas at risk of future climate-driven reductions in rainfall.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2026

ENSO and PDO drive shoreline position anomalies in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Sandy beaches act as buffers against various coastal hazards but are vulnerable to episodic (seasonal) and chronic (interannual) erosion. Understanding the variation of shoreline position, a key metric in coastal morphology, over a spectrum of time scales is therefore crucial in assessing hazard vulnerability. Long-standing research has investigated the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific Basin, in seasonal shoreline variability. Yet, ENSO’s chronic influence—and that of another Pacific climate mode, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—on shoreline anomalies remains poorly understood. Here, we examine the variability of sandy beaches in the US Pacific Northwest, a ∼750 km long coastal region on the US West Coast. We leverage 40 years (1984–2024) of shoreline data from publicly available Earth-observing (Landsat) satellite imagery at a high spatial resolution (>10,000 shore-normal transects at 50-m alongshore spacing) and employ Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a methodology for inferring causality in dynamical systems. We discover that strong El Niño years are signified by erosion (75.1% of transects), and strong La Niña years exhibit accretional behavior (73.4% of transects). Furthermore, we establish, for the first time, that both ENSO and PDO exert a statistically significant control on interannual shoreline variability, particularly on the alongshore component (in 95 and 100% of littoral cells, respectively), with water level fluctuations playing a critical role. This effort advances our understanding of the seasonal-to-interannual interactions between Pacific Basin climate variability and the PNW’s coastal morphodynamics, with implications for sediment management and coastal adaptation.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2008

Modeling the evolution of channel shape: Balancing computational efficiency with hydraulic fidelity

The cross-sectional shape of a natural river channel controls the capacity of the system to carry water off a landscape, to convey sediment derived from hillslopes, and to erode its bed and banks. Numerical models that describe the response of a landscape to changes in climate or tectonics therefore require formulations that can accommodate evolution of channel cross-sectional geometry. However, fully two-dimensional (2-D) flow models are too computationally expensive to implement in large-scale landscape evolution models, while available simple empirical relationships between width and discharge do not adequately capture the dynamics of channel adjustment. We have developed a simplified 2-D numerical model of channel evolution in a cohesive, detachment-limited substrate subject to steady, unidirectional flow. Erosion is assumed to be proportional to boundary shear stress, which is calculated using an approximation of the flow field in which log-velocity profiles are assumed to apply along vectors that are perpendicular to the local channel bed. Model predictions of the velocity structure, peak boundary shear stress, and equilibrium channel shape compare well with predictions of a more sophisticated but more computationally demanding ray-isovel model. For example, the mean velocities computed by the two models are consistent to within ???3%, and the predicted peak shear stress is consistent to within ???7%. Furthermore, the shear stress distributions predicted by our model compare favorably with available laboratory measurements for prescribed channel shapes. A modification to our simplified code in which the flow includes a high-velocity core allows the model to be extended to estimate shear stress distributions in channels with large width-to-depth ratios. Our model is efficient enough to incorporate into large-scale landscape evolution codes and can be used to examine how channels adjust both cross-sectional shape and slope in response to tectonic and climatic forcing. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2011

A conduit dilation model of methane venting from lake sediments

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, but its effects on Earth's climate remain poorly constrained, in part due to uncertainties in global methane fluxes to the atmosphere. An important source of atmospheric methane is the methane generated in organic-rich sediments underlying surface water bodies, including lakes, wetlands, and the ocean. The fraction of the methane that reaches the atmosphere depends critically on the mode and spatiotemporal characteristics of free-gas venting from the underlying sediments. Here we propose that methane transport in lake sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other shallow-water, organic-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2025

DNA metabarcoding and video camera collars yield different inferences about the summer diet of an arctic ungulate

The diets of wild ungulates are a foundational component of their ecology, influencing their behavior, body condition, and demography. With changing environmental conditions, there is a significant need to identify important forage items for ungulates, but this has often proved challenging. Declines in several barren-ground caribou herds across the North American Arctic have raised concerns about the influence of climate change on caribou forage conditions. Shifts in plant phenology, biomass, quality, and composition may be influencing caribou diets and subsequently affecting their body condition and demographic rates. Although forage is a primary driver of barren-ground caribou behavior and population dynamics, there is limited recent information about the specific foods they consume, and uncertainty about appropriate methods for identifying those foods. Investigators are increasingly using fecal DNA metabarcoding and video camera collars to assess ungulate diets, but comparative studies of these approaches are lacking. To examine the summer diets of barren-ground caribou, we used both fecal metabarcoding and video camera collars to identify forage used by the Porcupine caribou herd, which spans the Alaska–Yukon border. In 2021, we sampled the diets of adult females by collecting fecal samples and observing collar videos during 4 sampling occasions. We found that caribou consumed very specific forage items, and those items varied markedly across the growing season. Caribou predominantly consumed graminoids and lichens during early summer, and shrubs and forbs later in the season. Metabarcoding and video data provided significantly different estimates of diet for all taxonomic levels we evaluated, and inferences from the two approaches were often disparate. Metabarcoding failed to detect some items frequently consumed in videos, such as lichens, and indicated high use of other items rarely consumed, such as mosses. We found that video data provided greater taxonomic diversity and resolution for vascular plants and lichens, and more closely aligned with past research and biological expectations than data from fecal metabarcoding. Additional research is needed to be able to use these methods to identify the biomass of different forage items consumed.

Alaska, Yukon↗
USGS2016

Biocrusts in the context of global change

A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

Book chapter↗
USGS2009

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Precipitation pulse dynamics are not ubiquitous: A global meta-analysis of plant and ecosystem carbon- and water-related pulse responses

Ecosystem responses to precipitation pulses (“pulse responses”) exert a large control over global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, it is unclear how the timing and magnitude of pulse responses will vary across ecosystems as precipitation regimes shift under accelerating climate change. To address this issue, this study evaluates how plants and ecosystems respond to precipitation pulses and explores potential implications of altered precipitation regimes for the carbon and water cycles. In particular, we conducted a global meta-analysis to quantify the magnitude and timing of plant and ecosystem carbon-related ( A net , NPP, GPP, R eco , R bg ) and water-related (ET, T, Ψ, g s ) responses to 587 precipitation pulses. By analyzing pulse-response metrics published in the primary literature, we evaluated the characteristics of those pulse responses. We assessed whether precipitation pulses lead to a classic pulse response (i.e., a hump-shaped response as described by the pulse-reserve framework), a linear pulse response, a combination of classic and linear, or a lack of a pulse response. If a pulse response occurred, we explored the factors that drove its timing, magnitude, and speed. Our meta-analyses revealed that the classic, hump-shaped response is not ubiquitous, as it only accounted for 52% of the pulse responses. However, when a pulse response did occur, carbon-related responses to precipitation pulses were larger in magnitude (e.g., larger peak) than water-related pulse responses at relatively arid sites. However, at relatively mesic sites, this relationship reversed (i.e., water-related responses to precipitation pulses were larger than carbon-related responses). Additionally, larger precipitation pulse amounts increased water-related response magnitudes more than carbon-related response magnitudes across both arid and mesic sites. Therefore, under future precipitation intensification, carbon-related responses to precipitation pulses may become more decoupled from water-related pulse responses in wetter biomes but more coupled to water-related pulse responses in drier biomes.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2011

Playa-lake sedimentation and organic matter accumulation in an Andean piggyback basin: The recent record from the Cuenca de Pozuelos, NW Argentina

Expansive playa‐lake systems situated in high‐altitude piggyback basins are important and conspicuous components of both modern and ancient cordilleran orogenic systems. Extant playa lakes provide vital habitat for numerous endemic species, whereas sediments from these deposystems may record signals of climate change or develop natural resources over geological time. Laguna de los Pozuelos (North‐west Argentina) provides the opportunity for an actualistic sedimentological and geochemical assessment of a piggyback basin playa lake in an area of critical interest for understanding Quaternary palaeoclimate dynamics. Silty clays and diatom ooze are the dominant playa‐lake centre microfacies, with concentrations of total organic carbon and biogenic silica commonly exceeding 1·5 wt% in this sub‐environment. Elemental and stable isotopic analyses point to a mixed organic matter composition in the playa‐lake centre, with substantial contributions from algae and transported aquatic macrophytes. Bulk sediment and organic mass accumulation rates in the southern playa‐lake centre approach 0.22g cm −2 year −1 and 2.89 mg cm −2 year −1 , respectively, indicating moderately rapid deposition with negligible deflation over historic time. Playa margin facies contain higher percentages of fragmented biogenic carbonate (ostracods and charophytes) and inorganically precipitated aragonite crusts due to seasonal pumping and evaporation of ground water. Organic matter accumulation is limited along these heavily bioturbated wet and dry mud flats. Fluvial–lacustrine transitional environments, which are key waterbird habitats, are either silty terminal splay (northern axis) or sandy deltas (southern axis) containing highly oxidized and partially allochthonous organic matter. Modern analogue data from Laguna de los Pozuelos provide key insights for: (i) environmental reconstructions of ancient lake sequences; and (ii) improving facies models for piggyback basins.

Cuenca de Pozuelos↗
USGS2016

State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

Summary A wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features. We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states. We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years. State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of landscape dynamics.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2015

Testing hypotheses on distribution shifts and changes in phenology of imperfectly detectable species

With ongoing climate change, many species are expected to shift their spatial and temporal distributions. To document changes in species distribution and phenology, detection/non-detection data have proven very useful. Occupancy models provide a robust way to analyse such data, but inference is usually focused on species spatial distribution, not phenology. We present a multi-season extension of the staggered-entry occupancy model of Kendall et al . (2013, Ecology , 94, 610), which permits inference about the within-season patterns of species arrival and departure at sampling sites. The new model presented here allows investigation of species phenology and spatial distribution across years, as well as site extinction/colonization dynamics. We illustrate the model with two data sets on European migratory passerines and one data set on North American treefrogs. We show how to derive several additional phenological parameters, such as annual mean arrival and departure dates, from estimated arrival and departure probabilities. Given the extent of detection/non-detection data that are available, we believe that this modelling approach will prove very useful to further understand and predict species responses to climate change.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Variables affecting resource subsidies from streams and rivers to land and their susceptibility to global change stressors

Stream and river ecosystems provide subsidies of emergent adult aquatic insects and other resources to terrestrial food webs, and this lotic–land subsidy has garnered much attention in recent research. Here, we critically examine a list of biotic and abiotic variables—including productivity, dominant taxa, geomorphology, and weather—that should be important in affecting the nature of these subsidy dynamics between lotic and terrestrial ecosystems, especially the pathway from emergent aquatic insects to terrestrial predators. We also explore how interactions between these variables can lead to otherwise unexpected patterns in the importance of aquatic subsidies to terrestrial food webs. Utilizing a match-mismatch framework developed previously, we identify how these variables and interactions may be affected by a broad suite of stressors in addition to contaminants: climate change, land-use conversion, damming and water abstraction, and species invasions and extinctions. These stressors may all act to modify and potentially exacerbate the effects of contaminants on subsidies. The available literature on many variables is sparse, despite strong theoretical underpinnings supporting their importance for lotic–land subsidies. Notably, these understudied variables include those related to physical geomorphology and the structure of the stream/river and floodplain/riparian zone as well as species-specific interactions between aquatic and terrestrial organisms. We suggest that more explicit characterization of these variables and more research directly linking broad-scale stressors to subsidy resource–consumer interactions can help provide a more mechanistic understanding to lotic–land subsidy dynamics within a changing environment.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Assessment of fire fuel load dynamics in shrubland ecosystems in the western United States using MODIS products

Assessing fire behavior in shrubland/grassland ecosystems of the western United States has proven especially problematic, in part due to the complex nature of the vegetation and its relationships with prior fire history events. Our goals in this study were (1) to determine if we can effectively leverage the high temporal resolution capabilities of current remote sensing systems such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to improve upon shrub and grassland mapping and (2) to determine if these improvements alter and improve fire behavior model results in these grass- and shrub-dominated systems. The study focused on the shrublands and grasslands of the Owyhee Basin, which is located primarily in southern Idaho. Shrubland and grassland fuel load dynamics were characterized using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Net Primary Production (NPP) datasets (both derived from MODIS). NDVI shrub and grassland values were converted to biomass, and custom fire behavior fuel models were then developed to evaluate the impacts of surface fuel changes on fire behaviors. Results from the study include the following: (1) high intra- and interannual spectral variability characterized these shrubland/grassland ecosystems, and this spectral variability was highly correlated with climate variables, most notably precipitation; (2) fire activity had a higher likelihood of occurring in areas where the NDVI (and biomass) differential between spring and summer values was especially high; (3) the annual fuel loads estimated from MODIS NPP showed that live herbaceous fuel loads were closely correlated with annual precipitation; (4) estimated fuel load accumulation was higher on shrublands than grasslands with the same vegetation productivity; (5) the total fuel load on shrublands was impacted by shrubland age, and live woody fuel load was over 66% of the total fuel load; and (6) comparisons of simulated fire behavior and spread between dynamic and static fuel loads, the latter estimates being obtained from the operational and nationwide LANDFIRE program, showed clear differences in fire indices and fire burn areas between the dynamic fuel loads and the static fuel loads. Current standard fuel models appear to have bias in underestimating the fire spread and total burnable area.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2016

Mapping presence and predicting phenological status of invasive buffelgrass in southern Arizona using MODIS, climate and citizen science observation data

The increasing spread and abundance of an invasive perennial grass, buffelgrass ( Pennisetum ciliare ), represents a critical threat to the native vegetation communities of the Sonoran desert in southern Arizona, USA, where buffelgrass eradication is a high priority for resource managers. Herbicidal treatment of buffelgrass is most effective when the vegetation is actively growing, but the remoteness of infestations and the erratic timing and length of the species’ growth periods confound effective treatment. The goal of our research is to promote buffelgrass management by using remote sensing data to detect where the invasive plants are located and when they are photosynthetically active. We integrated citizen scientist observations of buffelgrass phenology in the Tucson, Arizona area with PRISM precipitation data, eight-day composites of 250-m Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery, and aerially-mapped polygons of buffelgrass presence to understand dynamics and relationships between precipitation and the timing and amount of buffelgrass greenness from 2011 to 2013. Our results show that buffelgrass responds quickly to antecedent rainfall: in pixels containing buffelgrass, higher correlations (R 2 > 0.5) typically occur after two cumulative eight-day periods of rain, whereas in pixels dominated by native vegetation, four prior 8-day periods are required to reach that threshold. Using the new suite of phenometrics introduced here—Climate Landscape Response metrics—we accurately predicted the location of 49% to 55% of buffelgrass patches in Saguaro National Park. These metrics and the suggested guidelines for their use can be employed by resource managers to treat buffelgrass during optimal time periods.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Unintended indirect effects limit elk productivity from supplemental feeding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The widespread practice of supplemental feeding, a bottom-up forcing of resource availability, is intended to improve wildlife population health and survival. However, supplemental feeding could trigger indirect effects by altering predation rates and disease dynamics. We investigated the effects of feeding on three key elk ( Cervus canadensis ) population productivity metrics (calf:cow ratios, annual change in elk density, and harvestable surplus) across 13 regions in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) over 26 years. Incorporating previous population size, climate, predator, and harvest data in a Bayesian regression framework revealed new insights about elk productivity metrics in the GYE. Supplemental feeding was associated with increased calf:cow ratios (4.9%) but was not substantially related to changes in elk density and harvestable surplus, which are both management targets. Notably, the feeding effect on calf:cow ratios appeared to be offset by increased wolf ( Canis lupus ) and grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) predation. We hypothesize that increased elk productivity resulting from supplemental feeding is primarily transferred to predator and pathogen trophic levels in this system with limited observed effects on elk abundance and harvestable surplus. Anthropogenic food resources may have unintended indirect consequences on other trophic levels that potentially limit the direct impacts of feeding.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider reef flat-fronted seaward shorelines became more accretive as all oceanographic forcing parameters increased in magnitude and exhibited large run-up increases following increasing wave heights. Island end shorelines became subject to increased flooding, erosion at Wake, and accretion at Midway with SLR. Under future conditions, windward and leeward islands are projected to become thinner as ocean facing and lagoonal shorelines erode, with leeward islands becoming more elongate. Island shorelines will change dramatically over the next century as SLR and altered wave climates drive new erosional regimes. It is vital to the sustainability of island communities that the relative magnitudes of these effects are addressed when planning for projected future climates.

Midway Atoll, Wake Atoll↗
USGS2022

Density-dependent and environmental influences on juvenile walleye Sander vitreus (Mitchill) survivorship in northern Wisconsin lakes

Walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), natural recruitment has declined in northern Wisconsin lakes over time. Age-0 and age-1 walleye relative abundance (catch per unit effort; CPE) data from northern Wisconsin (1986–2019) were used to test for abiotic (i.e. lake characteristics and temperature variables) and biotic (age-0 and age-1 CPE) factors influencing age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality. Age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality was elevated at high age-0 CPE and variable at low age-0 CPE, which indicated strong density-dependence. Environmental factors such as spawning and ontogenetic phenology (climate change and ice-off dates), trophic mismatches, and metabolic and consumptive demand influenced age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality less strongly. Elevated age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality at low age-0 CPE supports previous findings of depensatory recruitment dynamics in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Additional research is needed to address elevated juvenile walleye mortality at low adult stock sizes and/or with declining natural recruitment to inform management decisions.

Wisconsin↗