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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources

Predicting wildlife distribution patterns in New England USA with expert elicitation techniques

Understanding the impacts of landscape change on species distributions can help inform decision-making and conservation planning. Unfortunately, empirical data that span large spatial extents across multiple taxa are limited. In this study, we used expert elicitation techniques to develop species distribution models (SDMs) for harvested wildlife species (n = 10) in the New England region of the northeastern United States. We administered an online survey that elicited opinions from wildlife experts on the probability of species occurrence throughout the study region. We collected 3396 probability of occurrence estimates from 46 experts, and used linear mixed-effects methods and landcover variables at multiple spatial extents to develop SDMs. The models were in general agreement with the literature and provided effect sizes for variables that shape species occurrence. With the exception of gray fox, models performed well when validated against crowdsourced empirical data. We applied models to rasters (30 × 30 m cells) of the New England region to map each species’ distribution. Average regional occurrence probability was highest for coyote (0.92) and white-tailed deer (0.89) and lowest for gray fox (0.42) and moose (0.52). We then stacked distribution maps of each species to estimate and map focal species richness. Species richness ( s ) varied across New England, with highest average richness in the least developed states of Vermont ( s = 7.47) and Maine (s = 7.32), and lowest average richness in the most developed states of Rhode Island (s = 6.13) and Massachusetts (s = 6.61). Our expert-based approach provided relatively inexpensive, comprehensive information that would have otherwise been difficult to obtain given the spatial extent and range of species being assessed. The results provide valuable information about the current distribution of wildlife species and offer a means of exploring how climate and land-use change may impact wildlife in the future.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Leopard occupancy and habitat use in the multi-use Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

We estimated leopard ( Panthera pardus fusca ) occupancy in a multi-use region within Nepal’s Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape to evaluate leopard habitat use and inform conservation planning in areas where most of the species’ habitat occurs outside protected areas. In 2021, sign surveys were conducted along 1277 km of transects distributed among 145 grid cells of 7×7 km within a 7105 km² study area, where 226 leopard signs (pugmarks and scats) were documented. We used an occupancy modeling framework to evaluate the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on leopard habitat use. We found that leopard occupancy (ψ = 0.73 ± 0.17 CI) was strongly and positively associated with areas used by wild prey such as red muntjac ( Muntiacus muntjak ), rhesus macaques ( Macaca mulatta ), chital ( Axis axis ), and wild boars ( Sus scrofa ). Our results provide evidence that large carnivores like leopards can persist in human-dominated landscapes when native prey remains abundant, underscoring the need for community-based conservation that sustains both prey and predator populations beyond protected areas. By estimating leopard occupancy outside of protected areas, the research establishes a baseline for developing management strategies to ensure the continued existence of leopards in Nepal's multi-use landscapes.

Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape↗

Automated classifications of topography from DEMs by an unsupervised nested-means algorithm and a three-part geometric signature

An iterative procedure that implements the classification of continuous topography as a problem in digital image-processing automatically divides an area into categories of surface form; three taxonomic criteria–slope gradient, local convexity, and surface texture–are calculated from a square-grid digital elevation model (DEM). The sequence of programmed operations combines twofold-partitioned maps of the three variables converted to greyscale images, using the mean of each variable as the dividing threshold. To subdivide increasingly subtle topography, grid cells sloping at less than mean gradient of the input DEM are classified by designating mean values of successively lower-sloping subsets of the study area (nested means) as taxonomic thresholds, thereby increasing the number of output categories from the minimum 8 to 12 or 16. Program output is exemplified by 16 topographic types for the world at 1-km spatial resolution (SRTM30 data), the Japanese Islands at 270 m, and part of Hokkaido at 55 m. Because the procedure is unsupervised and reflects frequency distributions of the input variables rather than pre-set criteria, the resulting classes are undefined and must be calibrated empirically by subsequent analysis. Maps of the example classifications reflect physiographic regions, geological structure, and landform as well as slope materials and processes; fine-textured terrain categories tend to correlate with erosional topography or older surfaces, coarse-textured classes with areas of little dissection. In Japan the resulting classes approximate landform types mapped from airphoto analysis, while in the Americas they create map patterns resembling Hammond's terrain types or surface-form classes; SRTM30 output for the United States compares favorably with Fenneman's physical divisions. Experiments are suggested for further developing the method; the Arc/Info AML and the map of terrain classes for the world are available as online downloads.

Geomorphology↗

Beach morphology and change along the mixed grain-size delta of the dammed Elwha River, Washington

Sediment supply provides a fundamental control on the morphology of river deltas, and humans have significantly modified these supplies for centuries. Here we examine the effects of almost a century of sediment supply reduction from the damming of the Elwha River in Washington on shoreline position and beach morphology of its wave-dominated delta. The mean rate of shoreline erosion during 1939-2006 is ~ 0.6??m/yr, which is equivalent to ~ 24,000??m 3 /yr of sediment divergence in the littoral cell, a rate approximately equal to 25-50% of the littoral-grade sediment trapped by the dams. Semi-annual surveys between 2004 and 2007 show that most erosion occurs during the winter with lower rates of change in the summer. Shoreline change and morphology also differ spatially. Negligible shoreline change has occurred updrift (west) of the river mouth, where the beach is mixed sand to cobble, cuspate, and reflective. The beach downdrift (east) of the river mouth has had significant and persistent erosion, but this beach differs in that it has a reflective foreshore with a dissipative low-tide terrace. Downdrift beach erosion results from foreshore retreat, which broadens the low-tide terrace with time, and the rate of this kind of erosion has increased significantly from ~ 0.8??m/yr during 1939-1990 to ~ 1.4??m/yr during 1990-2006. Erosion rates for the downdrift beach derived from the 2004-2007 topographic surveys vary between 0 and 13??m/yr, with an average of 3.8??m/yr. We note that the low-tide terrace is significantly coarser (mean grain size ~ 100??mm) than the foreshore (mean grain size ~ 30??mm), a pattern contrary to the typical observation of fining low-tide terraces in the region and worldwide. Because this cobble low-tide terrace is created by foreshore erosion, has been steady over intervals of at least years, is predicted to have negligible longshore transport compared to the foreshore portion of the beach, and is inconsistent with oral history of abundant shellfish collections from the low-tide beach, we suggest that it is an armored layer of cobble clasts that are not generally competent in the physical setting of the delta. Thus, the cobble low-tide terrace is very likely a geomorphological feature caused by coastal erosion of a coastal plain and delta, which in turn is related to the impacts of the dams on the Elwha River to sediment fluxes to the coast.

Geomorphology↗

Controls on the Karaha-Telaga Bodas geothermal reservoir, Indonesia

Karaha-Telaga Bodas is a partially vapor-dominated, fracture-controlled geothermal system located adjacent to Galunggung Volcano in western Java, Indonesia. The geothermal system consists of: (1) a caprock, ranging from several hundred to 1600 m in thickness, and characterized by a steep, conductive temperature gradient and low permeability; (2) an underlying vapor-dominated zone that extends below sea level; and (3) a deep liquid-dominated zone with measured temperatures up to 353 ??C. Heat is provided by a tabular granodiorite stock encountered at about 3 km depth. A structural analysis of the geothermal system shows that the effective base of the reservoir is controlled either by the boundary between brittle and ductile deformational regimes or by the closure and collapse of fractures within volcanic rocks located above the brittle/ductile transition. The base of the caprock is determined by the distribution of initially low-permeability lithologies above the reservoir; the extent of pervasive clay alteration that has significantly reduced primary rock permeabilities; the distribution of secondary minerals deposited by descending waters; and, locally, by a downward change from a strike-slip to an extensional stress regime. Fluid-producing zones are controlled by both matrix and fracture permeabilities. High matrix permeabilities are associated with lacustrine, pyroclastic, and epiclastic deposits. Productive fractures are those showing the greatest tendency to slip and dilate under the present-day stress conditions. Although the reservoir appears to be in pressure communication across its length, fluid, and gas chemistries vary laterally, suggesting the presence of isolated convection cells. ?? 2006 CNR.

Geothermics↗

Structural stability of methane hydrate at high pressures

The structural stability of methane hydrate under pressure at room temperature was examined by both in-situ single-crystal and powder X-ray diffraction techniques on samples with structure types I, II, and H in diamond-anvil cells. The diffraction data for types II (sII) and H (sH) were refined to the known structures with space groups Fd 3 m and P 6 3 / mmc , respectively. Upon compression, sI methane hydrate transforms to the sII phase at 120 MPa, and then to the sH phase at 600 MPa. The sII methane hydrate was found to coexist locally with sI phase up to 500 MPa and with sH phase up to 600 MPa. The pure sH structure was found to be stable between 600 and 900 MPa. Methane hydrate decomposes at pressures above 3 GPa to form methane with the orientationally disordered Fm 3 m structure and ice VII ( Pn 3 m ). The results highlight the role of guest (CH 4 )-host (H 2 O) interactions in the stabilization of the hydrate structures under pressure.

Geoscience Frontiers↗

Consortial brown tide − picocyanobacteria blooms in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba

A brown tide bloom of Aureoumbra lagunensis developed in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba during a period of drought in 2013 that followed heavy winds and rainfall from Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012. Based on satellite images and water turbidity measurements, the bloom appeared to initiate in January 2013. The causative species ( A. lagunensis ) was confirmed by microscopic observation, and pigment and genetic analyses of bloom samples collected on May 28 of that year. During that time, A. lagunensis reached concentrations of 900,000 cells ml −1 (28 ppm by biovolume) in the middle portion of the Bay. Samples could not be collected from the northern (Cuban) half of the Bay because of political considerations. Subsequent sampling of the southern half of the Bay in November 2013, April 2014, and October 2014 showed persistent lower concentrations of A. lagunensis , with dominance shifting to the cyanobacterium Synechococcus (up to 33 ppm in April), an algal group that comprised a minor bloom component on May 28. Thus, unlike the brown tide bloom in Laguna Madre, which lasted 8 years, the bloom in Guantánamo Bay was short-lived, much like recent blooms in the Indian River, Florida. Although hypersaline conditions have been linked to brown tide development in the lagoons of Texas and Florida, observed euhaline conditions in Guantánamo Bay (salinity 35–36) indicate that strong hypersalinity is not a requirement for A. lagunensis bloom formation. Microzooplankton biomass dominated by ciliates was high during the observed peak of the brown tide, and ciliate abundance was high compared to other systems not impacted by brown tide. Preferential grazing by zooplankton on non-brown tide species, as shown in A. lagunensis blooms in Texas and Florida, may have been a factor in the development of the Cuban brown tide bloom. However, subsequent selection of microzooplankton capable of utilizing A. lagunensis as a primary food source may have contributed to the short-lived duration of the brown tide bloom in Guantánamo Bay.

Guantánamo Bay↗

Low-dose stimulation of growth of the harmful alga, Prymnesium parvum, by glyphosate and glyphosate-based herbicides

Glyphosate-based herbicides (GBH) are widely used around the globe. While generally toxic to phototrophs, organic phosphorus in glyphosate can become available to glyphosate-resistant phytoplankton and contribute to algal bloom development. Few studies have examined the effects of GBH on growth of eukaryotic microalgae and information for the toxic bloom-forming haptophyte, Prymnesium parvum , is limited. Using a batch-culture system, this study examined the effects on P. parvum growth of a single application of Roundup Weed and Grass Killer Super Concentrate Plus® (Roundup SC), Roundup Weed and Grass Killer Ready-to-Use III® (Roundup RtU), and technical-grade glyphosate at low concentrations [0-1000 μg glyphosate acid equivalent (ae) l -1 ]. Roundup formulations differ in the percent of glyphosate as active ingredient (Roundup SC, ∼50%; Roundup RtU, 2%), allowing indirect evaluation of the influence of inactive ingredients. Roundup SC enhanced exponential growth rate at 10-1000 μg glyphosate ae l -1 , and a positive monotonic association was noted between Roundup SC concentration and early (pre-exponential growth) but not maximum cell density. Glyphosate and both Roundup formulations enhanced growth rate at 100 μg glyphosate l -1 , but only Roundup SC and glyphosate significantly stimulated early and maximum density. This observation suggests the higher concentration of inactive ingredients and other compounds in Roundup RtU partially counteracts glyphosate-dependent growth stimulation. When phosphate concentration was varied while maintaining other conditions constant, addition of Roundup SC and glyphosate at 100 μg l -1 influenced growth more strongly than equivalent changes in phosphate-associated phosphorus. It appears, therefore, that low doses of glyphosate stimulate growth by mechanisms unrelated to the associated small increases in total phosphorus. In conclusion, glyphosate and GBH stimulate P. parvum growth at low, environmentally relevant concentrations. This finding raises concerns about the potential contribution to P. parvum blooms by glyphosate-contaminated runoff or by direct application of GBH to aquatic environments.

Harmful Algae↗

Linking avian malaria parasitemia estimates from quantitative PCR and microscopy reveals new infection patterns in Hawai'i

Plasmodium parasites infect thousands of species and provide an exceptional system for studying host-pathogen dynamics, especially for multi-host pathogens. However, understanding these interactions requires an accurate assay of infection. Assessing Plasmodium infections using microscopy on blood smears often misses infections with low parasitemias (the fractions of cells infected), and biases in malaria prevalence estimates will differ among hosts that differ in mean parasitemias. We examined Plasmodium relictum infection and parasitemia using both microscopy of blood smears and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on 299 samples from multiple bird species in Hawai'i and fit models to predict parasitemias from qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. We used these models to quantify the extent to which microscopy underestimated infection prevalence and to more accurately estimate infection patterns for each species for a large historical study done by microscopy. We found that most qPCR-positive wild-caught birds in Hawaii had low parasitemias (Ct scores ≥35), which were rarely detected by microscopy. The fraction of infections missed by microscopy differed substantially among eight species due to differences in species’ parasitemia levels. Infection prevalence was likely 4–5-fold higher than previous microscopy estimates for three introduced species, including Zosterops japonicus , Hawaii’s most abundant forest bird, which had low average parasitemias. In contrast, prevalence was likely only 1.5–2.3-fold higher than previous estimates for Himatione sanguinea and Chlorodrepanis virens , two native species with high average parasitemias. Our results indicate that relative patterns of infection among species differ substantially from those observed in previous microscopy studies, and that differences depend on variation in parasitemias among species. Although microscopy of blood smears is useful for estimating the frequency of different Plasmodium stages and host attributes, more sensitive quantitative methods, including qPCR, are needed to accurately estimate and compare infection prevalence among host species.

Hawai'i↗

Simulation of solute transport across low-permeability barrier walls

Low-permeability, non-reactive barrier walls are often used to contain contaminants in an aquifer. Rates of solute transport through such barriers are typically many orders of magnitude slower than rates through the aquifer. Nevertheless, the success of remedial actions may be sensitive to these low rates of transport. Two numerical simulation methods for representing low-permeability barriers in a finite-difference groundwater-flow and transport model were tested. In the first method, the hydraulic properties of the barrier were represented directly on grid cells and in the second method, the intercell hydraulic-conductance values were adjusted to approximate the reduction in horizontal flow, allowing use of a coarser and computationally efficient grid. The alternative methods were tested and evaluated on the basis of hypothetical test problems and a field case involving tetrachloroethylene (PCE) contamination at a Superfund site in New Hampshire. For all cases, advective transport across the barrier was negligible, but preexisting numerical approaches to calculate dispersion yielded dispersive fluxes that were greater than expected. A transport model (MODFLOW-GWT) was modified to (1) allow different dispersive and diffusive properties to be assigned to the barrier than the adjacent aquifer and (2) more accurately calculate dispersion from concentration gradients and solute fluxes near barriers. The new approach yields reasonable and accurate concentrations for the test cases.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

Insights into the use of time-lapse GPR data as observations for inverse multiphase flow simulations of DNAPL migration

Perchloroethylene (PCE) saturations determined from GPR surveys were used as observations for inversion of multiphase flow simulations of a PCE injection experiment (Borden 9??m cell), allowing for the estimation of optimal bulk intrinsic permeability values. The resulting fit statistics and analysis of residuals (observed minus simulated PCE saturations) were used to improve the conceptual model. These improvements included adjustment of the elevation of a permeability contrast, use of the van Genuchten versus Brooks-Corey capillary pressure-saturation curve, and a weighting scheme to account for greater measurement error with larger saturation values. A limitation in determining PCE saturations through one-dimensional GPR modeling is non-uniqueness when multiple GPR parameters are unknown (i.e., permittivity, depth, and gain function). Site knowledge, fixing the gain function, and multiphase flow simulations assisted in evaluating non-unique conceptual models of PCE saturation, where depth and layering were reinterpreted to provide alternate conceptual models. Remaining bias in the residuals is attributed to the violation of assumptions in the one-dimensional GPR interpretation (which assumes flat, infinite, horizontal layering) resulting from multidimensional influences that were not included in the conceptual model. While the limitations and errors in using GPR data as observations for inverse multiphase flow simulations are frustrating and difficult to quantify, simulation results indicate that the error and bias in the PCE saturation values are small enough to still provide reasonable optimal permeability values. The effort to improve model fit and reduce residual bias decreases simulation error even for an inversion based on biased observations and provides insight into alternate GPR data interpretations. Thus, this effort is warranted and provides information on bias in the observation data when this bias is otherwise difficult to assess. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

Osteosarcoma of the maxilla with concurrent osteoma in a southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis)

Southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) are threatened marine mammals that belong to the family Mustelidae and are native to the coast of Central California. Neoplasia is reported infrequently in sea otters. An adult female free-ranging southern sea otter was found alive at Pebble Beach, Monterey County, California, on January 1st, 1994 and died soon after capture. The carcass was submitted to the US Geological Survey – National Wildlife Health Center for necropsy examination. Grossly, a mass with rubbery texture was firmly attached to the left maxillary region of the skull and the nasopharynx was occluded by soft neoplastic tissue. Post-mortem skull radiographs showed an oval, smoothly marginated mineralized opaque mass centered on the left maxilla, extending from the canine tooth to caudal to the molar and replacing portions of the zygomatic arch and palatine and temporal bones. The majority of the mass protruded laterally from the maxilla and was characterized by central homogeneous mineral opacity. Microscopically, the mass was characterized by fully differentiated lamellar non-osteonal bone that expanded beyond the margins of the adjacent normal osteonal bone. Sections of the nasopharyngeal mass were comprised of moderately pleomorphic cells with bony stroma. Gross, microscopical and radiological findings were compatible with maxillary osteosarcoma with concurrent osteoma.

California↗

Sensitivity of fish density estimates to standard analytical procedures applied to Great Lakes hydroacoustic data

Standardized methods of data collection and analysis ensure quality and facilitate comparisons among systems. We evaluated the importance of three recommendations from the Standard Operating Procedure for hydroacoustics in the Laurentian Great Lakes (GLSOP) on density estimates of target species: noise subtraction; setting volume backscattering strength (S v ) thresholds from user-defined minimum target strength (TS) of interest (TS-based S v threshold); and calculations of an index for multiple targets (N v index) to identify and remove biased TS values. Eliminating noise had the predictable effect of decreasing density estimates in most lakes. Using the TS-based Sv threshold decreased fish densities in the middle and lower layers in the deepest lakes with abundant invertebrates (e.g., Mysis diluviana). Correcting for biased in situ TS increased measured density up to 86% in the shallower lakes, which had the highest fish densities. The current recommendations by the GLSOP significantly influence acoustic density estimates, but the degree of importance is lake dependent. Applying GLSOP recommendations, whether in the Laurentian Great Lakes or elsewhere, will improve our ability to compare results among lakes. We recommend further development of standards, including minimum TS and analytical cell size, for reducing the effect of biased in situ TS on density estimates.

Great Lakes↗

A review of osmoregulation in lamprey

Lamprey are living representatives of the basal vertebrate agnathan lineage. Many lamprey species are anadromous with a complex life cycle that includes metamorphosis from a freshwater (FW) benthic filter-feeding larva into a parasitic juvenile which migrates to seawater (SW) or (in landlocked populations) large bodies of FW. After a juvenile/adult trophic period that can last up to two years, adults return to rivers and migrate upstream to spawn in FW. Therefore, the osmoregulatory challenges anadromous lamprey face during migrations are similar to those of derived diadromous jawed fishes because lamprey osmoregulate to maintain plasma osmolality at approximately one third SW as well. While in FW, lamprey gills actively take up ions and their kidneys excrete excess water to compensate for passive ion loss and water gain. When in SW, lamprey drink SW and their gills actively secrete excess ions (to compensate for salt loading and dehydration). Nevertheless, lampreys diverged from the rest of the vertebrate lineage more than 500 million years ago, which is reflected in similarities and differences in ionocyte (ion transport cell) ultrastructure and distribution as well as tight junctions in epithelia. The current review discusses recent advances in our understanding of ion transport mechanisms of lamprey with a focus on sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) due to the large literature on this species. We emphasize key molecular and cellular mechanisms in osmoregulatory organs (i.e., gill, kidney and gut) and provide insight relative to what is known in other fishes and identify areas where more research is needed.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Hepatotoxic response of perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA) in early life stage zebrafish (Danio rerio) is greater than perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS)

Perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), a typical perfluorooctane sulfonate precursor (PreFOS), has been detected in the aquatic environment globally. However, the effects of PFOSA at levels measured in the environment have not been well characterized in aquatic organisms. In this study, we evaluated the transcriptional, biochemical, histopathological, and morphological effects of PFOSA to characterize the underlying mechanisms of toxicity by using a universal model in aquatic ecotoxicology, zebrafish ( Danio rerio ). Transcriptional changes in PFOSA-exposed zebrafish predicted hepatic fibrosis and associated immune function. Subsequent, sublethal impacts were observed, which included significant alterations in liver-specific protein levels, increased immune cell numbers, and liver pathological structural damage. In addition, we compared the effects caused by PFOSA and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) at the same exposure concentration and found a greater hepatotoxic effect of PFOSA relative to PFOS, indicating that the adverse impacts of PFOSA may be more severe. This was the first study to comparatively explore the hepatotoxic response of PFOSA and PFOS in aquatic organisms, which can be used for ecological risk assessments of PreFOS compounds.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

Distributed energy-balance modeling of snow-cover evolution and melt in rugged terrain: Tobacco Root Mountains, Montana, USA

A distributed energy-balance model was developed for simulating snowpack evolution and melt in rugged terrain. The model, which was applied to a 43-km2 watershed in the Tobacco Root Mountains, Montana, USA, used measured ambient data from nearby weather stations to drive energy-balance calculations and to constrain the model of Liston and Sturm [Liston, G.E., Sturm, M., 1998. A snow-transport model for complex terrain. Journal of Glaciology 44 (148), 498-516] for calculating the initial snowpack thickness. Simulated initial snow-water equivalent ranged between 1 cm and 385 cm w.e. (water equivalent) with high values concentrated on east-facing slopes below tall summits. An interpreted satellite image of the snowcover distribution on May 6, 1998, closely matched the simulated distribution with the greatest discrepancy occurring in the floor of the main trunk valley. Model simulations indicated that snowmelt commenced early in the melt season, but rapid meltout of snow cover did not occur until after the average energy balance of the entire watershed became positive about 45 days into the melt season. Meltout was fastest in the lower part of the watershed where warmer temperatures and tree cover enhanced the energy income of the underlying snow. An interpreted satellite image of the snowcover distribution on July 9, 1998 compared favorably with the simulated distribution, and melt curves for modeled canopy-covered cells mimicked the trends measured at nearby snow pillow stations. By the end of the simulation period (August 3), 28% of the watershed remained snow covered, most of which was concentrated in the highest parts of the watershed where initially thick accumulations had been shaded by surrounding summits. The results of this study provide further demonstration of the critical role that topography plays in the timing and magnitude of snowmelt from high mountain watersheds. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Temporal and spatial variability of groundwater recharge on Jeju Island, Korea

Estimates of groundwater recharge spatial and temporal variability are essential inputs to groundwater flow models that are used to test groundwater availability under different management and climate conditions. In this study, a soil water balance analysis was conducted to estimate groundwater recharge on the island of Jeju, Korea, for baseline, drought, and climate-land use change scenarios. The Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code was used to compute groundwater recharge and other water balance components at a daily time step using a 100 m grid cell size for an 18-year baseline scenario (1992–2009). A 10-year drought scenario was selected from historical precipitation trends (1961–2009), while the climate-land use change scenario was developed using late 21st century climate projections and a change in urban land use. Mean annual recharge under the baseline, drought, and climate-land use scenarios was estimated at 884, 591, and 788 mm, respectively. Under the baseline scenario, mean annual recharge was within the range of previous estimates (825–959 mm) and only slightly lower than the mean of 902 mm. As a fraction of mean annual rainfall, mean annual recharge was computed as only 42% and less than previous estimates of 44–48%. The maximum historical reported annual pumping rate of 241 × 10 6 m 3 equates to 15% of baseline recharge, which is within the range of 14–16% computed from earlier studies. The model does not include a mechanism to account for additional sources of groundwater recharge, such as fog drip, irrigation, and artificial recharge, and may also overestimate evapotranspiration losses. Consequently, the results presented in this study represent a conservative estimate of total recharge.

Jeju↗

Remote sensing evapotranspiration in ensemble-based framework to enhance cascade routing and re-infiltration concept in integrated hydrological model applied to support decision making

Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) help characterize the complexity of surface–groundwater interactions. The cascade routing and re-infiltration (CRR) concept, recently applied to a MODFLOW 6 IHM, improved conceptualization and simulation of overland flow processes. The CRR controls the transfer of rejected infiltration and groundwater exfiltration from upslope areas to adjacent downslope areas where that water can be evaporated, re-infiltrated back to subsurface, or discharged to streams as direct runoff. The partitioning between these three components is controlled by uncertain parameters that must be estimated. Thus, by quantifying and reducing those uncertainties, next to uncertainties of the other model parameters (e.g. hydraulic and storage parameters), the reliability of the CRR is improved and the IHM is better suited for decision support modelling, the two key objectives of this work. To this end, the remotely sensed MODIS-ET product was incorporated into the calibration process for complementing traditional hydraulic head and streamflow observations. A total of approximately 150,000 observations guided the calibration of a 13-year MODFLOW 6 IHM simulation of the Sardon catchment (Spain) with daily stress periods. The model input uncertainty was represented by grid-cell-scale parameterization, yielding approximately 500,000 unknown input parameters to be conditioned. The calibration was carried out through an iterative ensemble smoother. Incorporating the MODIS-ET data improved the CRR implementation, and reduced uncertainties associated with other model parameters. Additionally, it significantly reduced the uncertainty associated with net recharge, a critical flux for water management that cannot be directly measured and rather is commonly estimated by IHM simulations.

Sardon catchment↗