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Economics of undiscovered oil and gas in the North Slope of Alaska: Economic update and synthesis

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published assessments by geologists of undiscovered conventional oil and gas accumulations in the North Slope of Alaska; these assessments contain a set of scientifically based estimates of undiscovered, technically recoverable quantities of oil and gas in discrete oil and gas accumulations that can be produced with conventional recovery technology. The assessments do not incorporate economic factors such as recovery costs and product prices. The assessors considered undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in four areas of the North Slope: (1) the central North Slope, (2) the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA), (3) the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), and (4) the area west of the NPRA, called in this report the 'western North Slope'. These analyses were prepared at different times with various minimum assessed oil and gas accumulation sizes and with slightly different assumptions. Results of these past studies were recently supplemented with information by the assessment geologists that allowed adjustments for uniform minimum assessed accumulation sizes and a consistent set of assumptions. The effort permitted the statistical aggregation of the assessments of the four areas composing the study area. This economic analysis is based on undiscovered assessed accumulation distributions represented by the four-area aggregation and incorporates updates of costs and technological and fiscal assumptions used in the initial economic analysis that accompanied the geologic assessment of each study area.

Alaska↗

Application of the multi-dimensional surface water modeling system at Bridge 339, Copper River Highway, Alaska

The Copper River Basin, the sixth largest watershed in Alaska, drains an area of 24,200 square miles. This large, glacier-fed river flows across a wide alluvial fan before it enters the Gulf of Alaska. Bridges along the Copper River Highway, which traverses the alluvial fan, have been impacted by channel migration. Due to a major channel change in 2001, Bridge 339 at Mile 36 of the highway has undergone excessive scour, resulting in damage to its abutments and approaches. During the snow- and ice-melt runoff season, which typically extends from mid-May to September, the design discharge for the bridge often is exceeded. The approach channel shifts continuously, and during our study it has shifted back and forth from the left bank to a course along the right bank nearly parallel to the road. Maintenance at Bridge 339 has been costly and will continue to be so if no action is taken. Possible solutions to the scour and erosion problem include (1) constructing a guide bank to redirect flow, (2) dredging approximately 1,000 feet of channel above the bridge to align flow perpendicular to the bridge, and (3) extending the bridge. The USGS Multi-Dimensional Surface Water Modeling System (MD_SWMS) was used to assess these possible solutions. The major limitation of modeling these scenarios was the inability to predict ongoing channel migration. We used a hybrid dataset of surveyed and synthetic bathymetry in the approach channel, which provided the best approximation of this dynamic system. Under existing conditions and at the highest measured discharge and stage of 32,500 ft 3 /s and 51.08 ft, respectively, the velocities and shear stresses simulated by MD_SWMS indicate scour and erosion will continue. Construction of a 250-foot-long guide bank would not improve conditions because it is not long enough. Dredging a channel upstream of Bridge 339 would help align the flow perpendicular to Bridge 339, but because of the mobility of the channel bed, the dredged channel would likely fill in during high flows. Extending Bridge 339 would accommodate higher discharges and re-align flow to the bridge.

Open-File Report↗

Abundance, Timing of Migration, and Egg-to-Smolt Survival of Juvenile Chum Salmon, Kwethluk River, Alaska, 2007 and 2008

To better understand and partition mortality among life stages of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), we used inclined-plane traps to monitor the migration of juveniles in the Kwethluk River, Alaska in 2007 and 2008. The migration of juvenile chum salmon peaked in mid-May and catch rates were greatest when water levels were rising. Movement of chum salmon was diurnal with highest catch rates occurring during the hours of low light (that is, 22:00 to 10:00). Trap efficiency ranged from 0.37 to 4.04 percent (overall efficiency = 1.94 percent). Total abundance of juvenile chum salmon was estimated to be 2.0 million fish in 2007 and 2.9 million fish in 2008. On the basis of the estimate of chum salmon females passing the Kwethluk River weir and age-specific fecundity, we estimated the potential egg deposition (PED) upstream of the weir and trapping site. Egg-to-smolt survival, calculated by dividing the estimate of juvenile chum salmon emigrating past the weir site by the estimate of PED, was 4.6 percent in 2007 and 5.2 percent in 2008. In addition to chum salmon, Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha), coho salmon (O. kisutch), sockeye salmon (O. nerka), and pink salmon (O. gorbuscha), as well as ten other fish species, were captured in the traps. As with chum salmon, catch of these species increased during periods of increasing discharge and peaked during hours of low light. This study successfully determined the characteristics of juvenile salmon migrations and estimated egg-to-smolt survival for chum salmon. This is the first estimate of survival for any juvenile salmon in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region of Alaska and demonstrates an approach that can help to partition mortality between freshwater and marine life stages, information critical to understanding the dynamics of salmon in this region.

Open-File Report↗

Stream-sediment samples reanalyzed for major, rare earth, and trace elements from ten 1:250,000-scale quadrangles, south-central Alaska, 2007-08

During the 1960s through the 1980s, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted reconnaissance geochemical surveys of the drainage basins throughout most of the Anchorage, Bering Glacier, Big Delta, Gulkana, Healy, McCarthy, Mount Hayes, Nabesna, Talkeetna Mountains, and Valdez 1:250,000-scale quadrangles in Alaska as part of the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP). These geochemical surveys provide data necessary to assess the potential for undiscovered mineral resources on public and other lands, and provide data that may be used to determine regional-scale element baselines. This report provides new data for 366 of the previously collected stream-sediment samples. These samples were selected for reanalysis because recently developed analytical methods can detect additional elements of interest and have lower detection limits than the methods used when these samples were originally analyzed. These samples were all analyzed for arsenic by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry (HGAAS), for gold, palladium, and platinum by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry after lead button fire assay separation (FA/ICP-MS), and for a suite of 55 major, rare earth, and trace elements by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-AES-MS) after sodium peroxide sinter at 450 degrees Celsius.

Open-File Report↗

Kittlitz’s and Marbled Murrelets in Kenai Fjords National Park, south-central Alaska: At-sea distribution, abundance, and foraging habitat, 2006–08

Kittlitz’s murrelets ( Brachyramphus brevirostris ) and marbled murrelets ( B. marmoratus ) are small diving seabirds and are of management concern because of population declines in coastal Alaska. In 2006–08, we conducted a study in Kenai Fjords National Park, south-central Alaska, to estimate the recent population size of Brachyramphus murrelets, to evaluate productivity based on juvenile to adult ratios during the fledgling season, and to describe and compare their use of marine habitat. We also attempted a telemetry study to examine Kittlitz’s murrelet nesting habitat requirements and at-sea movements. We estimated that the Kittlitz’s murrelet population was 671 ± 144 birds, and the marbled murrelet population was 5,855 ± 1,163 birds. Kittlitz’s murrelets were limited to the heads of three fjords with tidewater glaciers, whereas marbled murrelets were more widely distributed. Population estimates for both species were lower in 2007 than in 2006 and 2008, possibly because of anomalous oceanographic conditions that may have delayed breeding phenology. During late season surveys, we observed few hatch-year marbled murrelets and only a single hatch-year Kittlitz’s murrelet over the course of the study. Using radio telemetry, we found a likely Kittlitz’s murrelet breeding site on a mountainside bordering one of the fjords. We never observed radio-tagged Kittlitz’s murrelets greater than 10 kilometer from their capture sites, suggesting that their foraging range during breeding is narrow. We observed differences in oceanography between fjords, reflecting differences in sill characteristics and orientation relative to oceanic influence. Acoustic biomass, a proxy for zooplankton and small schooling fish, generally decreased with distance from glaciers in Northwestern Lagoon, but was more variable in Aialik Bay where dense forage fish schools moved into glacial areas late in the summer. Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasii ), capelin ( Mallotus villosus ) and Pacific sand lance ( Ammodytes hexapterus ) were important forage species for murrelets in Kenai Fjords. Euphausiids also may have been an important forage resource for Kittlitz’s murrelets in turbid glacial outflows in shallow waters during daytime. Marbled murrelets generally were more tolerant to a wider range of foraging habitat conditions although they tended to avoid the ice-covered silty waters close to glaciers. In contrast, Kittlitz’s murrelets preferred areas where the influence of tidewater glaciers was the greatest and where their distribution was determined largely by prey availability. This work highlights an important link between interannual variability in murrelet counts at sea and mesoscale oceanographic conditions that influence marine productivity and prey distribution.

Open-File Report↗

Framework for ecological monitoring on lands of Alaska National Wildlife Refuges and their partners

National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska and throughout the U.S. have begun developing a spatially comprehensive monitoring program to inform management decisions, and to provide data to broader research projects. In an era of unprecedented rates of climate change, monitoring is essential to detecting, understanding, communicating and mitigating climate-change effects on refuge and other resources under the protection of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and requires monitoring results to address spatial scales broader than individual refuges. This document provides guidance for building a monitoring program for refuges in Alaska that meets refuge-specific management needs while also allowing synthesis and summary of ecological conditions at the ecoregional and statewide spatial scales.

Alaska↗

Whole-rock and sulfide-mineral geochemical data for samples from volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits of the Bonnifield district, east-central Alaska

This Open-File Report presents geochemical data for outcrop and drill-core samples from volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits and associated metaigneous and metasedimentary rocks in the Wood River area of the Bonnifield mining district, northern Alaska Range, east-central Alaska. The data consist of major- and trace-element whole-rock geochemical analyses, and major- and trace-element analyses of sulfide minerals determined by electron microprobe and laser ablation—inductively coupled plasma—mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) techniques. The PDF consists of text, appendix explaining the analytical methods used for the analyses presented in the data tables, a sample location map, and seven data tables. The seven tables are also available as spreadsheets in several file formats. Descriptions and discussions of the Bonnifield deposits are given in Dusel-Bacon and others (2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010).

Alaska↗

Soil data from fire and permafrost-thaw chronosequences in upland Picea mariana stands near Hess Creek and Tok, interior Alaska

Soils of the Northern Circumpolar Permafrost region harbor 1,672 petagrams (Pg) (1 Pg = 1,000,000,000 kilograms) of organic carbon (OC), nearly 50 percent of the global belowground OC pool (Tarnocai and others, 2009). Of that soil OC, nearly 88 percent is presently stored in perennially frozen ground. Recent climate warming at northern latitudes has resulted in warming and thawing of permafrost in many regions (Osterkamp, 2007), which might mobilize OC stocks from associated soil reservoirs via decomposition, leaching, or erosion. Warming also has increased the magnitude and severity of wildfires in the boreal region (Turetsky and others, 2011), which might exacerbate rates of permafrost degradation relative to warming alone. Given the size and vulnerability of the soil OC pool in permafrost soils, permafrost thaw will likely function as a strong positive feedback to the climate system (Koven and others, 2011; Schaefer and others, 2011). In this report, we report soil OC inventories from two upland fire chronosequences located near Hess Creek and Tok in Interior Alaska. We sampled organic and mineral soils in the top 2 meters (m) across a range of stand ages to evaluate the effects of wildfire and permafrost thaw on soil C dynamics. These data were used to parameterize a simple process-based fire-permafrost-carbon model, which is described in detail by O’Donnell and others (2011a, b). Model simulations examine long-term changes in soil OC storage in response to fire, permafrost thaw, and climate change. These data also have been used in other papers, including Harden and others (2012), which examines C recovery post-fire, and Johnson and others (2011), which synthesizes data within the Alaska Soil Carbon Database. Findings from these studies highlight the importance of climate and disturbance (wildfire, permafrost thaw) on soil C storage, and loss of soil C from high-latitude ecosystems.

Alaska↗

Mercury and water-quality data from Rink Creek, Salmon River, and Good River, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska, November 2009-October 2011

Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve (GBNPP), Alaska, like many pristine high latitude areas, is exposed to atmospherically deposited contaminants such as mercury (Hg). Although the harmful effects of Hg are well established, information on this contaminant in southeast Alaska is scarce. Here, we assess the level of this contaminant in several aquatic components (water, sediments, and biological tissue) in three adjacent, small streams in GBNPP that drain contrasting landscapes but receive similar atmospheric inputs: Rink Creek, Salmon River, and Good River. Twenty water samples were collected from 2009 to 2011 and processed and analyzed for total mercury and methylmercury (filtered and particulate), and dissolved organic carbon quantity and quality. Ancillary stream water parameters (discharge, pH, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and temperature) were measured at the time of sampling. Major cations, anions, and nutrients were measured four times. In addition, total mercury was analyzed in streambed sediment in 2010 and in juvenile coho salmon and several taxa of benthic macroinvertebrates in the early summer of 2010 and 2011.

Alaska↗

A geochemical perspective of Red Mountain: an unmined volcanogenic massive sulfide deposit in the Alaska Range

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has investigated the environmental geochemistry of a group of unmined volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits in the Bonnifield mining district, Alaska Range, east-central Alaska. The spectacularly colored Red Mountain deposit is the best exposed of these and provides excellent baseline geochemical data for natural environmental impacts of acidic rock drainage, metal dissolution and transport, and acidic salt and metal precipitation from an exposed and undisturbed VMS deposit.

Alaska↗

Mercury in fishes from Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska

In this study, mercury (Hg) concentrations were examined in fishes from Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska, the largest and one of the most remote units in the national park system. The goals of the study were to (1) examine the distribution of Hg in select lakes of Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve; (2) evaluate the differences in Hg concentrations among fish species and with fish age and size; and (3) assess the potential ecological risks of Hg to park fishes, wildlife, and human consumers by comparing Hg concentrations to a series of risk benchmarks. Total Hg concentrations ranged from 17.9 to 616.4 nanograms per gram wet weight (ng/g ww), with a mean (± standard error) of 180.0 ±17.9 across the 83 individuals sampled. Without accounting for the effects of size, Hg concentrations varied by a factor of 10.9 across sites and species. After accounting for the effects of size, Hg concentrations were even more variable, differing by a factor of as much as 13.2 within a single species sampled from two lakes. Such inter-site variation suggests that site characteristics play an important role in determining fish Hg concentrations and that more intensive sampling may be necessary to adequately characterize Hg contamination in the park. Size-normalized Hg concentrations also differed among three species sampled from Tanada Lake, and Hg concentrations were strongly correlated with age. Furthermore, potential risks to park fish, wildlife, and human users were variable across lakes and species. Although no fish from two of the lakes studied (Grizzly Lake and Summit Lake) had Hg concentrations exceeding any of the benchmarks used, concentrations in Copper Lake and Tanada Lake exceeded conservative benchmarks for bird (90 ng/g ww in whole-body) and human (150 ng/g ww in muscle) consumption. In Tanada Lake, concentrations in most fishes also exceeded benchmarks for risk to moderate- and low-sensitivity avian consumers (180 and 270 ng/g ww in whole-body, respectively), as well as the concentration at which Alaska State guidelines suggest at-risk groups limit fish consumption to 3 meals per week (320 ng/g). However, the relationship between Hg concentrations and fish size in Tanada Lake suggests that consumption of smaller-sized fishes could reduce Hg exposure in human consumers.

Alaska↗

Guidelines for the collection of continuous stream water-temperature data in Alaska

Objectives of stream monitoring programs differ considerably among many of the academic, Federal, state, tribal, and non-profit organizations in the state of Alaska. Broad inclusion of stream-temperature monitoring can provide an opportunity for collaboration in the development of a statewide stream-temperature database. Statewide and regional coordination could reduce overall monitoring cost, while providing better analyses at multiple spatial and temporal scales to improve resource decision-making. Increased adoption of standardized protocols and data-quality standards may allow for validation of historical modeling efforts with better projection calibration. For records of stream water temperature to be generally consistent, unbiased, and reproducible, data must be collected and analyzed according to documented protocols. Collection of water-temperature data requires definition of data-quality objectives, good site selection, proper selection of instrumentation, proper installation of sensors, periodic site visits to maintain sensors and download data, pre- and post-deployment verification against an NIST-certified thermometer, potential data corrections, and proper documentation, review, and approval. A study created to develop a quality-assurance project plan, data-quality objectives, and a database management plan that includes procedures for data archiving and dissemination could provide a means to standardize a statewide stream-temperature database in Alaska. Protocols can be modified depending on desired accuracy or specific needs of data collected. This document is intended to guide users in collecting time series water-temperature data in Alaskan streams and draws extensively on the broader protocols already published by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Alaska↗

Hindcast storm events in the Bering Sea for the St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet Regions, Alaska

This study provides viable estimates of historical storm-induced water levels in the coastal communities of Gambell and Savoonga situated on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea, as well as Unalakleet located at the head of Norton Sound on the western coast of Alaska. Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalakleet are small Native Villages that are regularly impacted by coastal storms but where little quantitative information about these storms exists. The closest continuous water-level gauge is at Nome, located more than 200 kilometers from both St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet. In this study, storms are identified and quantified using historical atmospheric and sea-ice data and then used as boundary conditions for a suite of numerical models. The work includes storm-surge (temporary rise in water levels due to persistent strong winds and low atmospheric pressures) modeling in the Bering Strait region, as well as modeling of wave runup along specified sections of the coast in Gambell and Unalakleet. Modeled historical water levels are used to develop return periods of storm surge and storm surge plus wave runup at key locations in each community. It is anticipated that the results will fill some of the data void regarding coastal flood data in western Alaska and be used for production of coastal vulnerability maps and community planning efforts.

Alaska↗

Eastern Denali Fault surface trace map, eastern Alaska and Yukon, Canada

We map the 385-kilometer (km) long surface trace of the right-lateral, strike-slip Denali Fault between the Totschunda-Denali Fault intersection in Alaska, United States and the village of Haines Junction, Yukon, Canada. In Alaska, digital elevation models based on light detection and ranging and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data enabled our fault mapping at scales of 1:2,000 and 1:10,000, respectively. Lacking such resources in Yukon, we developed new structure-from-motion digital photogrammetry products from legacy aerial photos to map the fault surface trace at a scale of 1:10,000 east of the international border. The section of the fault that we map, referred to as the Eastern Denali Fault, did not rupture during the 2002 Denali Fault earthquake (moment magnitude 7.9). Seismologic, geodetic, and geomorphic evidence, along with a paleoseismic record of past ground-rupturing earthquakes, demonstrate Holocene and contemporary activity on the fault, however. This map of the Eastern Denali Fault surface trace complements other data sets by providing an openly accessible digital interpretation of the location, length, and continuity of the fault’s surface trace based on the accompanying digital topography dataset. Additionally, the digitized fault trace may provide geometric constraints useful for modeling earthquake scenarios and related seismic hazard.

Alaska, Yukon↗

National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian Border to Icy Cape

Long-term rates of shoreline change for the north coast of Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to the Icy Cape region of northern Alaska, have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Short-term shoreline change rates are reported for the first time. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included two shoreline positions at a given location. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. The average rates of this report have a reduced amount of uncertainty compared to those presented in the first assessment for this region.

Alaska↗

Prioritizing habitats based on abundance and distribution of molting waterfowl in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A) encompasses more than 9.5 million hectares of federally managed land on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, where it supports a diversity of wildlife, including millions of migratory birds. Within the NPR-A, Teshekpuk Lake and the surrounding area provide important habitat for migratory birds, including large numbers of waterfowl and shorebirds that use the area for breeding and molting. This area has been designated by the Bureau of Land Management as the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (TLSA) and is estimated to host 22 percent of the entire Pacific black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) population as it undergoes flightless wing molt. Additionally, numerous other waterfowl species use the area for breeding and molting, including greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ), snow geese ( Chen caerulescens ), Canada geese ( Branta hutchinsii ), and tundra swans ( Cygnus columbianus ). A data-derived procedure was developed to define important habitats based on recent distributions of molting birds. That procedure was used to identify areas that could be prioritized for exclusion from oil and gas development within a pre-defined “Goose Molting Area” in the TLSA. This analysis was requested by the Bureau of Land Management to provide information for the development of alternative scenarios for an updated NPR-A, Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement. Habitat selections were based on the population densities of Pacific black brant and Canada geese and pre-defined thresholds for the minimum fraction of the population contained within selected areas. Selections were based on long-term records of population density combined with global-positioning system data to reveal small-scale patterns of habitat use. The highest population density of the Pacific black brant was found along the Beaufort Sea coast on the eastern edge of the study area, whereas Canada geese were somewhat more widely distributed. Depending on the selection criteria and width of protective buffers placed around selected habitat units, 52–85 percent of the Goose Molting Area was identified as high-priority habitat. The effectiveness of this approach to habitat protection assumes that buffers around selected habitat units are wide enough to provide adequate protection from disturbance related to oil and gas development. This assumption remained a key source of uncertainty that could be addressed through additional study of disturbance effects on molting waterfowl.

Alaska↗

Assessment of barrier island morphological change in northern Alaska

Arctic barriers islands are highly dynamic features influenced by a variety of oceanographic, geologic, and environmental factors. Many Alaskan barrier islands and spits serve as habitat and protection for native species, as well as shelter the coast from waves and storms that cause flooding and degradation of coastal villages. This study summarizes changes to barrier morphology in time and space along the North Slope coast of Alaska between the United States-Canadian border and Cape Beaufort from 1947 to 2020. Changes considered in this study include number of barriers, area and perimeter, shoreline length, barrier sinuosity and width, presence and number of relict terminus features, presence and coverage of tundra vegetation, barrier orientation, and elevation metrics. Wave conditions are also summarized and related to changes in barrier morphology. The results in this report help to better predict future barrier evolution and prevalence along Alaska’s coast by increasing our understanding of Arctic barrier development, migration and degradation.

Alaska↗

Abundance and distribution of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in the southcentral Alaska stock, 2014, 2017, and 2019

The Southcentral Alaska (SCAK) sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) stock is the northernmost stock of sea otters, a keystone predator known for structuring nearshore marine ecosystems. We conducted aerial surveys within the range of the SCAK sea otter stock to provide recent estimates of sea otter abundance and distribution. We defined three survey regions: (1) Eastern Cook Inlet (2017), (2) Outer Kenai Peninsula (2019), and (3) Prince William Sound (2014 and 2017). Combined, the three regional estimates yielded an overall abundance estimate of 21,617 sea otters (standard error [SE] = 2,190) with an average density of 1.96 sea otters per square kilometer (km 2 ; SE = 0.55). Sea otters were distributed unevenly across the survey regions and densities varied from 0.52 sea otters/km 2 (SE = 0.18) in the deep rock-walled glacial fjords along parts of the Outer Kenai Peninsula to nearly 20 sea otters/km 2 (SE = 6.70) in shallow soft-bottom communities such as those in Orca Inlet and Kachemak Bay. These survey results represent the best available contemporary information concerning the distribution, density, and abundance of sea otters across the range of the SCAK stock. Survey data files have been standardized and formatted in data releases associated with this report so that they can be queried and displayed with standard geographic information system and database management software. In addition to providing contemporary information on sea otter populations, this report details how an observer-based aerial survey method has been applied in Alaska over 2 decades.

Alaska↗