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A climate trend analysis of Senegal

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained steady in Senegal over the past 20 years but are 15 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.9° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * The amount of farmland per person is low and declining rapidly. * Current population and agriculture trends could lead to a 30-percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.

Fact Sheet↗

Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus in New England Streams Using Spatially Referenced Regression Models

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), has developed a water-quality model, called SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes), to assist in regional total maximum daily load (TMDL) and nutrient-criteria activities in New England. SPARROW is a spatially detailed, statistical model that uses regression equations to relate total nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrient) stream loads to nutrient sources and watershed characteristics. The statistical relations in these equations are then used to predict nutrient loads in unmonitored streams. The New England SPARROW models are built using a hydrologic network of 42,000 stream reaches and associated watersheds. Watershed boundaries are defined for each stream reach in the network through the use of a digital elevation model and existing digitized watershed divides. Nutrient source data is from permitted wastewater discharge data from USEPA's Permit Compliance System (PCS), various land-use sources, and atmospheric deposition. Physical watershed characteristics include drainage area, land use, streamflow, time-of-travel, stream density, percent wetlands, slope of the land surface, and soil permeability. The New England SPARROW models for total nitrogen and total phosphorus have R-squared values of 0.95 and 0.94, with mean square errors of 0.16 and 0.23, respectively. Variables that were statistically significant in the total nitrogen model include permitted municipal-wastewater discharges, atmospheric deposition, agricultural area, and developed land area. Total nitrogen stream-loss rates were significant only in streams with average annual flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. In streams larger than this, there is nondetectable in-stream loss of annual total nitrogen in New England. Variables that were statistically significant in the total phosphorus model include discharges for municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and pulp and paper facilities, developed land area, agricultural area, and forested area. For total phosphorus, loss rates were significant for reservoirs with surface areas of 10 square kilometers or less, and in streams with flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating nutrient loading in New England waters include estimates of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen and phosphorus yields, sources of the nutrients, and the potential for delivery of those yields to receiving waters. This information can be used to (1) predict ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental variables that are statistically significant predictors of nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of nutrient loads, and (4) evaluate management options for reducing nutrient loads to achieve water-quality goals.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius and Grand Rivers). The increase in total suspended solids concentrations could be because of soil erosion from land cultivated for row crops. Most trace element data examined in the study were highly censored and could not be used for flow-adjusted trend analyses. Water-quality conditions were assessed to explore relations between data from sites and to the State water-quality standards where applicable for selected constituents. Streamflow varied at each site because of drainage area, land use, and groundwater inputs. Dissolved oxygen and water temperature were similar at all sites except the urban site located on Wilson Creek. Specific conductance was similar between the most northern (South Fabius and Grand River sites) and the most southern sites (Current and Elk River sites). Total suspended solids concentrations were near the method reporting level at all sites, except the northern sites. Streams in northern Missouri are more turbid than streams in southern Missouri and are affected by large volumes of sediment deposition because of soil erosion from land cultivated for row crops. Geometric means of Escherichia coli were calculated from the recreational seasons within the study period. Only the Grand River site exceeded the whole-body-contact standard for frequently used waters. The South Fabius and Grand River sites and the Wilson Creek site had statistically larger densities of both fecal indicator bacteria types than the remaining sites.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrologic Setting and Conceptual Hydrologic Model of the Walker River Basin, West-Central Nevada

The Walker River is the main source of inflow to Walker Lake, a closed-basin lake in west-central Nevada. Between 1882 and 2008, agricultural diversions resulted in a lake-level decline of more than 150 feet and storage loss of 7,400,000 acre-ft. Evaporative concentration increased dissolved solids from 2,500 to 17,000 milligrams per liter. The increase in salinity threatens the survival of the Lahontan cutthroat trout, a native species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. This report describes the hydrologic setting of the Walker River basin and a conceptual hydrologic model of the relations among streams, groundwater, and Walker Lake with emphasis on the lower Walker River basin from Wabuska to Hawthorne, Nevada. The Walker River basin is about 3,950 square miles and straddles the California-Nevada border. Most streamflow originates as snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada. Spring runoff from the Sierra Nevada typically reaches its peak during late May to early June with as much as 2,800 cubic feet per second in the Walker River near Wabuska. Typically, 3 to 4 consecutive years of below average streamflow are followed by 1 or 2 years of average or above average streamflow. Mountain ranges are comprised of consolidated rocks with low hydraulic conductivities, but consolidated rocks transmit water where fractured. Unconsolidated sediments include fluvial deposits along the active channel of the Walker River, valley floors, alluvial slopes, and a playa. Sand and gravel deposited by the Walker River likely are discontinuous strata throughout the valley floor. Thick clay strata likely were deposited in Pleistocene Lake Lahontan and are horizontally continuous, except where strata have been eroded by the Walker River. At Walker Lake, sediments mostly are clay interbedded with alluvial slope, fluvial, and deltaic deposits along the lake margins. Coarse sediments form a multilayered, confined-aquifer system that could extend several miles from the shoreline. Depth to bedrock in the lower Walker River basin ranges from about 900 to 2,000 feet. The average hydraulic conductivity of the alluvial aquifer in the lower Walker River basin is 10-30 feet per day, except where comprised of fluvial sediments. Fluvial sediments along the Walker River have an average hydraulic conductivity of 70 feet per day. Subsurface flow was estimated to be 2,700 acre-feet per year through Double Spring. Subsurface discharge to Walker Lake was estimated to be 4,400 acre-feet per year from the south and 10,400 acre-feet per year from the north. Groundwater levels and groundwater storage have declined steadily in most of Smith and Mason Valleys since 1960. Groundwater levels around Schurz, Nevada, have changed little during the past 50 years. In the Whisky Flat area south of Hawthorne, Nevada, agricultural and municipal pumpage has lowered groundwater levels since 1956. The water-level decline in Walker Lake since 1882 has caused the surrounding alluvial aquifer to drain and groundwater levels to decline. The Wabuska streamflow-gaging station in northern Mason Valley demarcates the upper and lower Walker River basin. The hydrology of the lower Walker River basin is considerably different than the upper basin. The upper basin consists of valleys separated by consolidated-rock mountains. The alluvial aquifer in each valley thins or pinches out at the downstream end, forcing most groundwater to discharge along the river near where the river is gaged. The lower Walker River basin is one surface-water/groundwater system of losing and gaining reaches from Wabuska to Walker Lake, which makes determining stream losses and the direction and amount of subsurface flow difficult. Isotopic data indicate surface water and groundwater in the lower Walker River basin are from two sources of precipitation that have evaporated. The Walker River, groundwater along the Wassuk Range, and Walker Lake plot along one evaporation line. Groundwater along th

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa

In eastern Africa droughts can cause crop failure and lead to food insecurity. With increasing temperatures, there is an a priori assumption that droughts are becoming more severe. However, the link between droughts and climate change is not sufficiently understood. Here we investigate trends in long-term agricultural drought and the influence of increasing temperatures and precipitation deficits. Using a combination of models and observational datasets, we studied trends, spanning the period from 1900 (to approximate pre-industrial conditions) to 2018, for six regions in eastern Africa in four drought-related annually averaged variables: soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and evaporative demand ( E 0 ). In standardized soil moisture data, we found no discernible trends. The strongest influence on soil moisture variability was from precipitation, especially in the drier or water-limited study regions; temperature and E 0 did not demonstrate strong relations to soil moisture. However, the error margins on precipitation trend estimates are large and no clear trend is evident, whereas significant positive trends were observed in local temperatures. The trends in E 0 are predominantly positive, but we do not find strong relations between E 0 and soil moisture trends. Nevertheless, the E 0 trend results can still be of interest for irrigation purposes because it is E 0 that determines the maximum evaporation rate. We conclude that until now the impact of increasing local temperatures on agricultural drought in eastern Africa is limited and we recommend that any soil moisture analysis be supplemented by an analysis of precipitation deficit.

Earth Systems Science Dynamics↗

Assessment of freshwater fish assemblages and their habitats in the National Park Service system of the southeastern United States

The southeast region of the United States contains the highest diversity of freshwater fish species in the country: approximately 662 species. Existing protected areas like units of the National Park Service (NPS) should reflect this biodiversity, but there has been no broad-scale assessment. We compiled several data sets identifying native freshwater fish species distributions in and surrounding NPS units and threats to those resources. Focusing on the 26 NPS units containing only freshwater fish species, we documented 288 species within NPS boundaries. The largest NPS units tended to have the most fish species and aquatic habitat but also the greatest amount of alteration. Increasing rates of urbanization, declines in percentage agriculture land cover, and increased density of road-stream crossings in surrounding watersheds were good predictors of nonindigenous species presence within NPS unit boundaries. These results help document the role of NPS units in conserving freshwater fish diversity and, in this region, suggest that measures aimed at controlling urbanization in the adjacent watersheds could affect the diversity of freshwater fish communities in these units.

Fisheries↗

Sediment dynamics and implications for management: State of the science from long‐term research in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA

This review aims to synthesize the current knowledge of sediment dynamics using insights from long‐term research conducted in the watershed draining to the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S., to inform management actions to restore the estuary and its watershed. The sediment dynamics of the Chesapeake are typical of many impaired watersheds and estuaries around the world, and this synthesis is intended to be relevant and transferable to other sediment‐impaired systems. The watershed's sediment sources, transport, delivery, and impacts are discussed with implications for effectively implementing best management practices (BMPs) to mitigate sediment issues. This synthesis revealed three key issues to consider when planning actions to reduce sediment loading: Scale, time, and land use. Geology and historical land use generated a template that current land use and climate, in addition to management, are acting upon to control sediment delivery. Important sediment sources in the Chesapeake include the Piedmont physiographic region, urban, and agricultural land use, and streambank erosion of headwater streams, whereas floodplain trapping is important along larger streams and rivers. Implementation of BMPs is widespread and is predicted to lead to decreased sediment loading; however, reworking of legacy sediment stored in stream valleys, with potentially long residence times in storage, can delay and complicate detection of the effects of BMPs on sediment loads. In conclusion, the improved understanding of sediment sources, storage areas, and transport lag times reviewed here can help target choices of BMP types and locations to better manage sediment problems—for both local streams and receiving waters.

New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virgin↗

A comparison of coffee floral traits under two different agricultural practices

Floral traits and rewards are important in mediating interactions between plants and pollinators. Agricultural management practices can affect abiotic factors known to influence floral traits; however, our understanding of the links between agricultural practices and floral trait expression is still poorly understood. Variation in floral morphological, nectar, and pollen traits of two important agricultural species, Coffea arabica and C. canephora , was assessed under different agricultural practices (sun and shade). Corolla diameter and corolla tube length were larger and pollen total nitrogen content greater in shade plantations of C. canephora than sun plantations. Corolla tube length and anther filament length were larger in shade plantations of C. arabica . No effect of agricultural practice was found on nectar volume, sugar or caffeine concentrations, or pollen production. Pollen total nitrogen content was lower in sun than shade plantations of C. canephora , but no difference was found between sun and shade for C. arabica . This study provides baseline data on the influence of agronomic practices on C. arabica and C. canephora floral traits and also helps fill a gap in knowledge about the effects of shade trees on floral traits, which can be pertinent to other agroforestry systems.

Scientific Reports↗

Hydrogeologic Setting and Ground-Water Flow in the Leetown Area, West Virginia

The Leetown Science Center is a research facility operated by the U.S. Geological Survey that occupies approximately 455-acres near Kearneysville, Jefferson County, West Virginia. Aquatic and fish research conducted at the Center requires adequate supplies of high-quality, cold ground water. Three large springs and three production wells currently (in 2006) supply water to the Center. The recent construction of a second research facility (National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture) operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and co-located on Center property has placed additional demands on available water resources in the area. A three-dimensional steady-state finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Leetown area and was used to assess the availability of ground water to sustain current and anticipated future demands. The model also was developed to test a conceptual model of ground-water flow in the complex karst aquifer system in the Leetown area. Due to the complexity of the karst aquifer system, a multidisciplinary research study was required to define the hydrogeologic setting. Geologic mapping, surface- and borehole-geophysical surveys, stream base-flow surveys, and aquifer tests were conducted to provide the hydrogeologic data necessary to develop and calibrate the model. It would not have been possible to develop a numerical model of the study area without the intensive data collection and methods developments components of the larger, more comprehensive hydrogeologic investigation. Results of geologic mapping and surface-geophysical surveys verified the presence of several prominent thrust faults and identified additional faults and other complex geologic structures (including overturned anticlines and synclines) in the area. These geologic structures are known to control ground-water flow in the region. Results of this study indicate that cross-strike faults and fracture zones are major avenues of ground-water flow. Prior to this investigation, the conceptual model of ground-water flow for the region focused primarily on bedding planes and strike-parallel faults and joints as controls on ground-water flow but did not recognize the importance of cross-strike faults and fracture zones that allow ground water to flow downgradient across or through less permeable geologic formations. Results of the ground-water flow simulation indicate that current operations at the Center do not substantially affect either streamflow (less than a 5-percent reduction in annual streamflow) or ground-water levels in the Leetown area under normal climatic conditions but potentially could have greater effects on streamflow during long-term drought (reduction in streamflow of approximately 14 percent). On the basis of simulation results, ground-water withdrawals based on the anticipated need for an additional 150 to 200 gal/min (gallons per minute) of water at the Center also would not seriously affect streamflow (less than 8 to 9 percent reduction in streamflow) or ground-water levels in the area during normal climatic conditions. During drought conditions, however, the effects of current ground-water withdrawals and anticipated additional withdrawals of 150 to 200 gal/min to augment existing supplies result in moderate to substantial declines in water levels of 0.5-1.2 feet (ft) in the vicinity of the Center's springs and production wells. Streamflow was predicted to be reduced locally by approximately 21 percent. Such withdrawals during a drought or prolonged period of below normal ground-water levels would result in substantial declines in the flow of the Center's springs and likely would not be sustainable for more than a few months. The drought simulated in this model was roughly equivalent to the more than 1-year drought that affected the region from November 1998 through February 2000. The potential reduction in streamflow is a result of capture of ground water tha

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington↗

Agricultural irrigated land-use inventory for Jackson, Calhoun, and Gadsden Counties in Florida, and Houston County in Alabama, 2014

A detailed inventory of irrigated crop acreage is not available at the level of resolution needed to accurately estimate water use or to project future water demands in many Florida counties. This report provides a detailed digital map and summary of irrigated areas for 2014 within Jackson, Calhoun, and Gadsden Counties in Florida, and Houston County in Alabama. The irrigated areas were delineated using land-use data and orthoimagery that were then field verified between June and November 2014. Selected attribute data were collected for the irrigated areas, including crop type, primary water source, and type of irrigation system. Results of the 2014 study indicate that an estimated 31,608 acres were irrigated in Jackson County during 2014. This estimate includes 25,733 acres of field crops, 1,534 acres of ornamentals and grasses (including pasture), and 420 acres of orchards. Specific irrigated crops include cotton (11,759 acres), peanuts (9,909 acres), field corn (2,444 acres), and 3,235 acres of various vegetable (row) crops. The vegetable acreage includes 1,714 acres of which 857 acres were planted with both a spring and fall crop on the same field (double cropped). Overall, groundwater was used to irrigate 98.6 percent of the total irrigated acreage in Jackson County during 2014, whereas surface water and wastewater were used to irrigate the remaining 1.4 percent. Irrigated cropland totaled 3,060 acres in Calhoun County; 4,547 acres in Gadsden County; and 10,333 acres in Houston County. In Calhoun County, sod accounted for the largest irrigated acreage (1,145 acres) followed by peanuts (886 acres). In Gadsden County, ornamentals accounted for the largest irrigated acreage (1,104 acres) followed by cotton (977 acres). In Houston County, cotton accounted for the largest irrigated acreage (4,310 acres) followed by peanuts (2,493 acres). Overall, an estimated 49,548 acres of land were irrigated during 2014 in the four counties inventoried. About 45,052 acres were irrigated by a center pivot, permanent or solid overhead fixtures, or a portable or traveling gun. In all, 650 center pivot irrigation systems were identified, and the calculated acreage under these pivots totaled 43,070 acres. There were 405 center pivot irrigation systems counted in Jackson County during the 2014 field verification followed by Houston with 197, Gadsden with 48, and Calhoun with 10. An estimated 35,087 acres of field corn, cotton, peanuts, and sorghum were irrigated by center pivot systems during 2014 in these four counties combined. Vegetable acreage for the four counties combined totaled 6,699 acres, with 54 percent being irrigated by a drip irrigation system and the remaining 46 percent irrigated by a center pivot or traveling gun. The irrigated acreage estimated for Jackson County in 2014 (31,608) is about 47 percent higher than the 2012 estimated acreage published by the USDA (21,508 acres). The estimates of irrigated acreage field verified during 2014 for Calhoun and Gadsden Counties are also higher than those published by the USDA for 2012 (86 percent and 71 percent, respectively). In Calhoun County the USDA reported 1,647 irrigated acres while the current study estimated 3,060 acres, and in Gadsden County the USDA reported 2,650 acres while the current study estimated 4,547 acres. For Houston County the USDA-reported value of 9,138 acres in 2012 was 13 percent below the 10,333 acres field verified in the current study. Differences between the USDA 2012 values and 2014 field verified estimates in these two datasets may occur because (1) irrigated acreage for some specific crops increased or decreased substantially during the 2-year interval due to commodity prices or economic changes, (2) irrigated acreage calculated for the current study may be estimated high because irrigation was assumed if an irrigation system was present and therefore the acreage was counted as irrigated, when in fact that may not have been the case as some farmers may not have used their irrigation systems during this growing period even if they had a crop in the field, or (3) the amount of irrigated acreages published by the USDA for selected crops may be underestimated in some cases.

Alabama, Florida↗

Denitrification in the recharge area and discharge area of a transient agricultural nitrate plume in a glacial outwash sand aquifer, Minnesota

Recharge rates of nitrate (NO 3 − ) to groundwater beneath agricultural land commonly are greater than discharge rates of NO 3 − in nearby streams, but local controls of NO 3 − distribution in the subsurface generally are poorly known. Groundwater dating (CFC, 3 H) was combined with chemical (ions and gases) and stable isotope (N, S, and C) analyses to resolve the effects of land use changes, flow patterns, and water‐aquifer reactions on the distributions of O 2 , NO 3 − , SO 4 = , and other constituents in a two‐dimensional vertical section leading from upland cultivated fields to a riparian wetland and stream in a glacial outwash sand aquifer near Princeton, Minnesota. Within this section a “plume” of oxic NO 3 − ‐rich groundwater was present at shallow depths beneath the fields and part of the wetland but terminated before reaching the stream or the wetland surface. Groundwater dating and hydraulic measurements indicate travel times in the local flow system of 0 to >40 years, with stratified recharge beneath the fields, downward diversion of the shallow NO 3 − ‐bearing plume by semiconfining organic‐rich valley‐filling sediments under the wetland and upward discharge across the valley and stream bottom. The concentrations and δ 15 N values of NO 3 − and N 2 indicate that the NO 3 − plume section was bounded in three directions by a curvilinear zone of active denitrification that limited its progress; however, when recalculated to remove the effects of denitrification, the data also indicate changes in both the concentrations and δ 15 N values of NO 3 − that was recharged in the past. Isotope data and mass balance calculations indicate that FeS 2 and other ferrous Fe phases were the major electron donors for denitrification in at least two settings: (1) within the glacial‐fluvial aquifer sediments beneath the recharge and discharge areas and (2) along the bottom of the valley‐filling sediments in the discharge area. Combined results indicate that the shape and progress of the oxic NO 3 − plume termination were controlled by a combination of (1) historical and spatial variations in land use practices, (2) contrast in groundwater flow patterns between the agricultural recharge area and riparian wetland discharge area, and (3) distribution and abundance of electron donors in both the sand aquifer and valley‐filling sediments. The data are consistent with slow migration of redox zones through the aquifer in response to recharging oxic groundwater during Holocene time, then an order‐of‐magnitude increase in the flux of electron acceptors as a result of agricultural NO 3 − contamination in the late twentieth century, to which the redox zone configuration still may be adjusting. The importance of denitrification for NO 3 − movement through formerly glaciated terrains should depend on the source areas and depositional environments of the glacial sediments, as well as geomorphology and recent stream‐valley sediment history.

Water Resources Research↗

On the effects of scale for ecosystem services mapping

Ecosystems provide life-sustaining services upon which human civilization depends, but their degradation largely continues unabated. Spatially explicit information on ecosystem services (ES) provision is required to better guide decision making, particularly for mountain systems, which are characterized by vertical gradients and isolation with high topographic complexity, making them particularly sensitive to global change. But while spatially explicit ES quantification and valuation allows the identification of areas of abundant or limited supply of and demand for ES, the accuracy and usefulness of the information varies considerably depending on the scale and methods used. Using four case studies from mountainous regions in Europe and the U.S., we quantify information gains and losses when mapping five ES - carbon sequestration, flood regulation, agricultural production, timber harvest, and scenic beauty - at coarse and fine resolution (250 m vs. 25 m in Europe and 300 m vs. 30 m in the U.S.). We analyze the effects of scale on ES estimates and their spatial pattern and show how these effects are related to different ES, terrain structure and model properties. ES estimates differ substantially between the fine and coarse resolution analyses in all case studies and across all services. This scale effect is not equally strong for all ES. We show that spatially explicit information about non-clustered, isolated ES tends to be lost at coarse resolution and against expectation, mainly in less rugged terrain, which calls for finer resolution assessments in such contexts. The effect of terrain ruggedness is also related to model properties such as dependency on land use-land cover data. We close with recommendations for mapping ES to make the resulting maps more comparable, and suggest a four-step approach to address the issue of scale when mapping ES that can deliver information to support ES-based decision making with greater accuracy and reliability.

PLoS ONE↗

Factors Affecting Spatial and Temporal Variability in Nutrient and Pesticide Concentrations in the Surficial Aquifer on the Delmarva Peninsula

Water quality in the unconfined, unconsolidated surficial aquifer on the Delmarva Peninsula is influenced by the availability of soluble ions from natural and human sources, and by geochemical factors that affect the mobility and fate of these ions within the aquifer. Ground-water samples were collected from 60 wells completed in the surficial aquifer of the peninsula in 2001 and analyzed for major ions, nutrients, and selected pesticides and degradation products. Analytical results were compared to similar data from a subset of sampled wells in 1988, as well as to land use, soils, geology, depth, and other potential explanatory variables to demonstrate the effects of natural and human factors on water quality in the unconfined surficial aquifer. This study was conducted as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, which is designed (in part) to describe the status and trends in ground-water quality and to provide an understanding of natural and human factors that affect ground-water chemistry in different parts of the United States. Results of this study may be useful for water-resources managers tasked with addressing water-quality issues of local and regional importance because the surficial aquifer on the Delmarva Peninsula is a major source of water for domestic and public supply and provides the majority of flow in local streams. Human impacts are apparent in ground-water quality throughout the surficial aquifer. The surficial aquifer on the Delmarva Peninsula is generally sandy and very permeable with well-oxygenated ground water. Dissolved constituents found throughout various depths of the unconfined aquifer are likely derived from the predominantly agricultural practices on the peninsula, although effects of road salt, mineral dissolution, and other natural and human influences are also apparent in some areas. Nitrate occurred at concentrations exceeding natural levels in many areas, and commonly exceeded 10 milligrams per liter (as nitrogen). In addition to land use in the aquifer recharge area, concentrations of nitrate in ground water are related to regional patterns in soil drainage that affect underlying aquifer redox conditions. Over the peninsula, nitrate concentrations are not related to recharge date of the water, but are positively correlated with depth in shallow wells screened beneath agricultural areas. Nitrate concentrations increased in oxic areas (dissolved oxygen greater than 1 milligram per liter) of the deeper part of the surficial aquifer used for domestic supply by an average of about 2 milligrams per liter between 1988 and 2001, although no changes were apparent in shallower parts of the aquifer over that same period. Water in the surficial aquifer generally flows from land-surface recharge to surface-water discharge areas in less than 30 years. As a result, the entire flow system in the surficial aquifer has likely been affected by human activities on and near the land surface over the past several decades. Pesticide compounds occurred widely at low levels throughout the surficial aquifer. The most commonly used herbicides (metolachlor, alachlor, and atrazine) were the most commonly detected. These pesticides primarily occurred in ground water in the form of degradation products. The widespread occurrence of these and other pesticide compounds reflects their abundant use as well as chemical properties and aquifer characteristics that allow their movement into ground water. Mixtures of pesticides are common. Most samples contained at least 3 different compounds; several samples contained as many as 11. Pesticide concentrations in the surficial aquifer are relatively high beneath recharge areas with well-drained soils in the shallow part of the aquifer and in oxic environments throughout the surficial aquifer. Concentrations are generally below existing drinking-water standards, although standards are not available for all of the pesticide compound

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Electrical resistivity investigation of fluvial geomorphology to evaluate potential seepage conduits to agricultural lands along the San Joaquin River, Merced County, California, 2012–13

Increased flows in the San Joaquin River, part of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program, are designed to help restore fish populations. However, increased seepage losses could result from these higher restoration flows, which could exacerbate existing drainage problems in neighboring agricultural lands and potentially damage crops. Channel deposits of abandoned river meanders that are hydraulically connected to the river could act as seepage conduits, allowing rapid and widespread water-table rise during restoration flows. There is a need to identify the geometry and properties of these channel deposits to assess their role in potential increased seepage effects and to evaluate management alternatives for reducing seepage. Electrical and electromagnetic surface geophysical methods have provided a reliable proxy for lithology in studies of fluvial and hyporheic systems where a sufficient electrical contrast exists between deposits of differing grain size. In this study, direct-current (DC) resistivity was used to measure subsurface resistivity to identify channel deposits and to map their subsurface geometry. The efficacy of this method was assessed by using DC resistivity surveys collected along a reach of the San Joaquin River in Merced County, California, during the summers of 2012 and 2013, in conjunction with borings and associated measurements from a hydraulic profiling tool. Modeled DC resistivity data corresponded with data from cores, hand-auger samples, a hydraulic profiling tool, and aerial photographs, confirming that DC resistivity is effective for differentiating between silt and sand deposits in this setting. Modeled DC resistivity data provided detailed two-dimensional cross-sectional resistivity profiles to a depth of about 20 meters. The distribution of high-resistivity units in these profiles was used as a proxy for identifying areas of high hydraulic conductivity. These data were used subsequently to guide the location and depth of wells installed onsite for monitoring flow in the channel deposits. Estimates of the cross-sectional area of channel deposits from DC resistivity pseudosections can provide critical input for groundwater-flow models designed to simulate river seepage and evaluate seepage-management alternatives.

California↗

Anthropogenic stressors compound climate impacts on inland lake dynamics: The case of Hamun Lakes

Inland lakes face unprecedented pressures from climatic and anthropogenic stresses, causing their recession and desiccation globally. Climate change is increasingly blamed for such environmental degradation, but in many regions, direct anthropogenic pressures compound, and sometimes supersede, climatic factors. This study examined a human-environmental system – the terminal Hamun Lakes on the Iran-Afghanistan border – that embodies amplified challenges of inland waters. Satellite and climatic data from 1984 to 2019 were fused, which documented that the Hamun Lakes lost 89% of their surface area between 1999 and 2001 (3809 km 2 versus 410 km 2 ), coincident with a basin-wide, multi-year meteorological drought. The lakes continued to shrink afterwards and desiccated in 2012, despite the above-average precipitation in the upstream basin. Rapid growth in irrigated agricultural lands occurred in upstream Afghanistan in the recent decade, consuming water that otherwise would have fed the Hamun Lakes. Compounding upstream anthropogenic stressors, Iran began storing flood water that would have otherwise drained to the lakes, for urban and agricultural consumption in 2009. Results from a deep Learning model of Hamun Lakes' dynamics indicate that the average lakes' surface area from 2010 to 2019 would have been 2.5 times larger without increasing anthropogenic stresses across the basin. The Hamun Lakes' desiccation had major socio-environmental consequences, including loss of livelihood, out-migration, dust-storms, and loss of important species in the region.

Science of the Total Envionrment↗

Habitat prioritization across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas: an example using greater sage-grouse in Wyoming

Animal habitat selection is an important and expansive area of research in ecology. In particular, the study of habitat selection is critical in habitat prioritization efforts for species of conservation concern. Landscape planning for species is happening at ever-increasing extents because of the appreciation for the role of landscape-scale patterns in species persistence coupled to improved datasets for species and habitats, and the expanding and intensifying footprint of human land uses on the landscape. We present a large-scale collaborative effort to develop habitat selection models across large landscapes and multiple seasons for prioritizing habitat for a species of conservation concern. Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereafter sage-grouse) occur in western semi-arid landscapes in North America. Range-wide population declines of this species have been documented, and it is currently considered as “warranted but precluded” from listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. Wyoming is predicted to remain a stronghold for sage-grouse populations and contains approximately 37% of remaining birds. We compiled location data from 14 unique radiotelemetry studies (data collected 1994–2010) and habitat data from high-quality, biologically relevant, geographic information system (GIS) layers across Wyoming. We developed habitat selection models for greater sage-grouse across Wyoming for 3 distinct life stages: 1) nesting, 2) summer, and 3) winter. We developed patch and landscape models across 4 extents, producing statewide and regional (southwest, central, northeast) models for Wyoming. Habitat selection varied among regions and seasons, yet preferred habitat attributes generally matched the extensive literature on sage-grouse seasonal habitat requirements. Across seasons and regions, birds preferred areas with greater percentage sagebrush cover and avoided paved roads, agriculture, and forested areas. Birds consistently preferred areas with higher precipitation in the summer and avoided rugged terrain in the winter. Selection for sagebrush cover varied regionally with stronger selection in the Northeast region, likely because of limited availability, whereas avoidance of paved roads was fairly consistent across regions. We chose resource selection function (RSF) thresholds for each model set (seasonal × regional combination) that delineated important seasonal habitats for sage-grouse. Each model set showed good validation and discriminatory capabilities within study-site boundaries. We applied the nesting-season models to a novel area not included in model development. The percentage of independent nest locations that fell directly within identified important habitat was not overly impressive in the novel area (49%); however, including a 500-m buffer around important habitat captured 98% of independent nest locations within the novel area. We also used leks and associated peak male counts as a proxy for nesting habitat outside of the study sites used to develop the models. A 1.5-km buffer around the important nesting habitat boundaries included 77% of males counted at leks in Wyoming outside of the study sites. Data were not available to quantitatively test the performance of the summer and winter models outside our study sites. The collection of models presented here represents large-scale resource-management planning tools that are a significant advancement to previous tools in terms of spatial and temporal resolution.

Wyoming↗

Evaluating evidence of changing regional occupancy of four bat species in response to forest management practices

Coordinated, regional strategies to guide effective management and conservation of forests can be used to balance conservation with management for other objectives such as timber, scenic viewsheds, and fire. A key part of these regional strategies is incorporating knowledge of how management actions may affect certain species, especially those that are sensitive or are of concern. However, knowledge of how management actions may affect species is inferred from studies conducted across small areas where the species’ behavior and forest conditions are easily assessed. Here, we examine how occupancy of four bat species responds to forest management across the eastern United States at regional scales. We used range-wide capture and stationary acoustic surveys from the North American Bat Monitoring Program from 2010 to 2020 to estimate yearly summer occupancy for four bat species of conservation concern identified in the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS) Southern and Eastern Regions Bat Conservation Strategy: little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus ), northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ), Indiana bat ( Myotis sodalis ), and tricolored bat ( Perimyotis subflavus ), and assessed the degree to which occupancy of each species changed after different vegetation management actions were implemented on USFS lands. We identified 78 different management actions that were hypothesized to influence summer bat occupancy at two spatial scales (5-km and 10-km) across the eastern United States from the Forest Service Activity Tracking System and grouped these management actions into four vegetation management types: clear-cutting, fire, thinning, and ground vegetation management. To evaluate potential effects of these vegetation management types on bat occupancy, we created a yearly management metric representing the average number of years that had passed since any one of the included management actions in each management type had been implemented in each 5-km or 10-km grid cell, weighted by the proportion of the grid cell covered by the management treatment history. We chose these metrics to ask if more management or management done recently had a larger effect on bat occupancy than less management or management done long-ago. We then fit Bayesian hierarchical multi-scale occupancy models for each species to assess how occupancy changed in response to the amount and time since implementation of each vegetation management type. Using the estimated relationships between the yearly metrics of management and bat occupancy, we created predictions for how bat occupancy responded at 1- and 5- years after implementation. We found substantial differences in the response of the four species to the four vegetation management types. Ground vegetation management provided the greatest increase in expected occupancy at 1 year after implementation for little brown bat, long-eared bat, and tricolored bat, while fire provided the greatest increase in expected occupancy for Indiana bat. Thinning provided increases for all species at 1 year after implementation, but even greater increases at 5 years after implementation. Clear-cutting, on the other hand, tended to result in decreased occupancy at both 1- and 5-years after implementation for each species and had the greatest effect on tricolored bat at 1 year after implementation. Clear evidence for how management types like these may be affecting bat populations can be used at regional scales to help private and public forest managers achieve their strategic goals.

eastern United States↗